Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus maintained their NL performance level, while A.J. Burnett's declined from his NL level.  It's just three players, but perhaps MGL was right- the major difference between the leagues is the quality of the hitters.

The McDonald and Adams batting lines do like they fell from Mark Belanger's card. Alas, they were like Belanger's worse seasons and neither had Belanger's glove.

The park factor simplifies the story.  The RC played as an extreme hitters park the first couple of months, and levelled right off as the season wore on.  Burnett gets a (modest) boost from that, as he basically missed the worst of it from a pitcher's perspective.  Towers takes a hit from it, as most of his major league games were during the "hitter's time".

Burnett's ERA+ actually improved from 117 in 2005 to 118 in 2006, despite a (predictable) 0.50+ increase in ERA. It really does show how much of a difference the league/ballpark factor makes.

- Alfonzo actually recieved 8 million dollars for his performance. I find it strange his production completely dropped off in his early 30's. His age 30 and 32 seasons are day and night.
- Johnson only walked 33 times in 461 AB's. Getting hit 21 times will help the OBP though.
- Despite not being fast and being a extreme contact hitter, the Cat only GIDP 11 times.
- Speed burner Bengie Molina not only got a stolen base but he also got a triple.
- Only 3 pitchers pitched at least 100 innings.
- I'm still trying to find out how Brian Tallet's ERA ended up being 3.81
- BJ Ryan's K rate dipped this season. Ryan didn't give up a extra base hit to a left handed batter. They slugged .120 against him.

I can't believe that Glaus, given his K propensity, led the team in GIDP. In fact, he even had a higher GIDP/AB ratio than Molina.

I would say that Overbay increased his performance (at least slugging wise) from the NL:
06- 312/372/508 vs 05- 276/367/449

Glaus on the otherhand pulled off almost identical numbers:
06- 252/355/513 vs 05- 258/363/513

Here's Burnett in 2005 and 2006:

H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
7.9	8.5	3.4	0.5
9.2	7.8	2.6	0.9

Given that he no longer faces pitchers that seems like a reasonable drop in K's.  I know there was a thought that it'd drop because the Marlin's park was a strikeout park.

The drop in walks and the switch of leagues & parks probably's the reason for the HR increase.

His GB/FB ratio dropped to 1.78 from 2.42, but is still pretty good.

The BBRef similar players are kind of interesting.  Hill's include Ken Oberkfell, Jose Vidro, Heinie Groh and Placido Polanco.  Rios' include Ken Landreaux, Ray Lankford, Coco Crisp, Luis Gonzalez and Terrence Long.  Position doesn't really play a role in the evaluation of similarity, but Hill's comps tend to straddle the second base/third base divide and Rios' are a mix of corner outfielders and centerfielders. 

Pople like to refer to Glaus as a "big scary bat," but it's interesting that Lyle Overbay arguably had a more productive season than Troy.  Glaus hits the long ball, but when you add it all up, a 117 OPS+ really isn't all that impressive.  Certainly not at the level of our old "BSB," or at the level of a certain A's slugger that got paid 500k...but I won't beat that one into the ground.

Other thoughts:

-McDonald getting 260 at-bats is really sad.  I wish JP had just stuck with Adams and let him develop there.  Now he's been jerked around so much maybe he'll never discover his talent.  I don't even think Johnny Mac is a very good defender, despite his flash.

-Frank Catalanotto had a BB/K ratio of 1.41.  That's phenomenal.

-The key to Brandon League's success was keeping the ball in the park.  Only 3 HR's allowed this year.  Last year he allowed 8 in less innings. 

-McGowan...sigh.  It just doesn't seem fair sometimes.  This year was the year of the rookie pitcher with Verlander, Liriano, Weaver, Johnson, and McGowan.  Well, that's how I WISH I could finish that sentence.

-Roy Halladay's real ERA was 3.11, not 3.19.  The mistake is calling Rios's blunder at Fenway a "homerun."

-Justin Speier really doesn't get enough love. 

-Despite being jerked around almost as much as Adams, Frasor's final line is pretty damn good.  51 K's in 50 innings.  If Speier comes back, the Jays will have the best bullpen in the playoffs in '07...

I hadn't noticed that Accardo's ERA was that high.

Checking all-time Jay leaders...
Roy Halladay 2006 version is...
#4 for W/L% tied with Juan Guzman '92 - all time best?  Guzman '93
#5 for WHIP behind 2 Clemens seasons, Halladay 03 and Key 87
#5 for BB/9 behind Halladay 03, Key 89, Wells 00 and Towers '05 - how far the Tower fell
#5 for K/BB ratio behind Halladay 03, Wells 00, Key 87 and Clemens 97
#9 for Adjusted ERA+ at 147 - #1 is Clemens 97 at 226 vs #2 Guzman 96 at 181

Ted Lilly is #5 for K/9 behind both Clemens, Guzman 92 and Escobar 03

BJ Ryan is...
#2 for saves in one year behind Ward 93 and tied with Escobar 02 - hope that isn't an omen
#7 for games finished - Ward 93 is the record holder

Lifetime you'll find Halladay on many lists - he leads in W/L% at 664 vs David Wells 604.  With 21 more wins he would move into #3 with Key.  None of the other lists is he within a year of reaching the top though.

BJ Ryan is already #6 in saves and 20 behind #4 Escobar.  He has a long way to reach Henke's 217 though - he'd have to average 45 per year for the rest of his contract to reach it.  Lilly gets on the Hits/9 IP (#6)

For hitters...
Vernon Wells 06 is #7 for Total Bases, #10 for extra base hits
Lyle Overbay is #4 for doubles, #9 for GIDP
Troy Glaus is #10 for home runs, #9 for walks, #7 for AB/HR
Reed Johnson #2 for HBP (#1 is Shea from last year, just 1 ahead of Johnson)
Alex Rios is #7 for Sac Flies (5 way tie)
And somehow I missed Glaus taking over the all-time Jays record for grounding into double plays (25) from Ed Sprague (23 in 93)

All time hitting leaders...
Wells #5 for avg, #4 for Slg%, #6 for OPS, #9 for Runs Scored, #9 for hits, #7 for total bases, #9 for 2B, #6 for HR, #8 for RBI, #10 for adjusted OPS+, #9 for Runs Created, #7 for Extra base hits, #7 for SF,#8 for GIDP, #9 for AB/HR
Hinske #10 for OBP
Reed Johnson is #2 for HBP but is 53 behind #1 Delgado

Phew.  Lots of leader list appearances there for Wells.  Surprised by Hisnke being on the OBP list though.

More cool comparables, courtesy of BBRef:

Troy Glaus- Matt Williams, Mike Schmidt (Schmidt's great run started next year, and Glaus will be hard pressed to keep up)
Vernon Wells- Carlos Beltran, Andre Dawson
Lyle Overbay- Dolph Camilli, Hal Morris

I decided to check on Kent. The top three comparables are Ellis Burks, Dave Parker and Yogi Berra and the numbers are close.  Yogi is actually the closest comparable.  How about that?

Why did Glaus hit into way more double plays than he has usually done? About 10 more this year, its not like Vernon, Cat, Rios or Reed are slow...

Are the huge GIDP numbers and low SH numbers in part to blame for the under efficient offence? (BTW, with Molina gone, JMAC playing less, and Hillenbrand gone, perhaps GIDP will shrink).

I can't believe that Glaus, given his K propensity, led the team in GIDP. In fact, he even had a higher GIDP/AB ratio than Molina.

So it never dawned on you that Glaus was grounding into double plays that would fill Hillenbrand with many (Glaus led him 25-22 on the season).

In his defence, he not only led the team in the K category, but in BB as well with 30 more walks than any other player, which helps to contribute to the most surprising statistic that I see, that Troy led the team in runs scored.

I'm not sure what measure might exist to evaluate the efficiency of a player scoring when he gets on base, but comparing Glaus to Johnson, for example:

       Reed had 11 more hits than Troy and 37 fewer BB+IBB+HBP, 5 more SB than Troy and even on CS.
       Yet Troy, with all his speed, scored 19 more runs.

Sure, the 17 extra extra-base hits help, particularly with 26 more home runs. But how about Vernon?

        Vernon had 49 more hits than Troy and 38 fewer BB+IBB+HBP, 14 more SB than Troy and 2 more CS.
        Yet Troy, with all his speed, and lower slugging percentage, scored 14 more runs.

Vernon had 12 more extra-base hits than Troy, with 6 fewer home runs.

Is it just that Troy was keeping out of running into double plays? Did he inspire his teammates to score him? Did he have many more moments getting on base with < 2 outs?  Is he deserving of more credit for his baserunning skill?

Anyone know an easier way I can find out the splits for pitchers in IPs who both started and relieved?  Like Downs, Tallet and McGowan.  Do I have to go through all the box scores?  Or is there even a site that just lists the starters for each game instead of just the winners and losers?

The numbers that jumped out for me are the baseball prospectus secret sauce numbers which show the Jays as the 4th best team in fielding runs above average, the 3rd best team in equivalent strikeouts per nine innings pitched, and the 7th best team in relief wins expected above replacement level.  Which made them the best suited team in baseball for playoffs (and is probably why Torre said the Jays were the team he'd least like to face in the playoffs). 

The other numbers were from the baseball prospectus adjusted standings numbers which show the Jays were unlucky and were more like a 91 win team while the Red Sox were lucky and more like a 82 win team.  Note that in AEQR the Jays had the 4th best offense in baseball (4th in the AL) and in AEQRA the Jays had the 6th best runs prevented in baseball (4th in the AL) and no team was better than the Jays on both sides of the ball.  The only team better than the Jays were also the 4th best team rated this way, and the only team better than them by a full game or more were the Yankees, who BP puts as the best team in baseball by about 5-6 wins.

The Bulllpen by Inherited Runners Score percentage, what the ERA doesn't show you (and a little bit about what leverage of situations, at least by magnitude and not by inning, the players got):

Justin Speier: 17/36 = 47%

Jeremy Accardo: 13/31 = 42%

Scott Downs: 11/39 = 28%

Jason Frasor: 18/37 = 49%

Brandon League: 4/9 = 44%

Marcum: 2/6 = 33%

McGowan: 5/9 = 55%

Davis Romero: 0/7 = 0%

Rosario: 0/4 = 0%

The Man: 1/29 = 3.5%

Brian Tallet: 13/44 = 30%

Josh Towers: 0/2 = 0%

Pete Walker: 3/5 = 60%

There is also:

Scott Schoeneweis: 9/40 = 23%

Vinnie Chulk: 7/9 = 78%

and

Ty Taubenheim: 0/2 = 0%

I have to say the most surprising one is Scott Schoeneweis because I couldn't have been more happy when he left. His ERA was terrible and I recall him blowing 2 high leverage saves, I guess thats a case of vivid cases sticking in my mind.

I have to say the most surprising one is Scott Schoeneweis because I couldn't have been more happy when he left. His ERA was terrible

Don't worry, he was terrible.  The reasons his stats look okay is that he pitches far more partial innnings than anyone else on the team.  When you only pitch to one batter, it's more difficult to give up runs than when you pitch to 4 or 5. 

For example, SS comes in with batter on first and second, one out, walks his only batter and comes out.  Next pitcher gives up sac fly.  SS goes 0/2 inherited runs scored, no effect on ERA.

Personally I don't think enough baseball people understand this which is why some pretty bad loogys still have jobs.

  It's partly the number of batters faced that reduces a reliever's ERA, but more important is the number of times a reliever enters the game with one or two outs in an inning (and that doesn't just apply to LOOGYs).

It should be pretty obvious that if you come into an inning with fewer than three outs to get (by you or by following relievers), you're much less likely to give up a run than you would have been if all three outs remained.

Note that the current closer usage dictates that they almost always enter the game with no outs, at least much more frequently than setup men.  So, a guy who goes from being a setup man who often comes in mid-inning to a closer could be expected to see his ERA rise just on that factor alone...

What can be done about the crazy park factor fluctuations between the opened and closed Rogers Centre? Can the Jays ask the fans to come prepared for the cold weather and use the roof only for rain and extremely cold weather? When that roof is closed our home stadium basically becomes Coors Field pre-humidor. It makes it very hard to accurately assess personnel, both of the pitching and hitting variety and leads to guys like Jason Frasor and Vinnie Chulk getting yanked around. The HR/Fly rate for the pitching staff was over 20% early in the season, which is staggering. It corrected itself to 15% and the AL average was 12%.

The only year this place has ever been considered a pitchers park according to BB Ref was 1989, and that year the Jays avoided April and May. Fortunately, it's not Coors Field and breaking balls can break and sinkers won't get to the plate before they sink, but it's frustrating to watch the team never quite get off to the start they appear capable of. Another groundball/strikeout machine type starting pitcher would be nice, but they don't exactly grow on trees. Maybe they should also keep Towers in Syracuse for the first couple of months. ;)

How about the rest of the Bauxites that regularly attend Jays games? Are you prepared to bundle up in return for better pitching and perhaps better team performance at the start of the year? Or are my observations off the mark and you don't want to risk pissing off the season ticket base? I think the season ticket base could care less provided the team wins. Will leaving the roof open save for the real extreme weather improve the play of the team? Actually, IIRC the team played very well under the extreme offensive conditions and then started to fade a bit with the roof open. Hmmm...

I've always been in favour of using the roof to optimize the pitching matchups. And the Jays are very decisive about it. When the Jays open it, they keep it open with exception to pretty much anything except hard rain. There were two instances this year where it rained and they chose to bear it out. Although one of the reasons was when Mario (VP of Security) asked the ump to clsoe it and the ump refused.

There's a new rule this year that basically says that under advisement of the ump, they are now allowed to open the the roof up until the sixth inning, but unfortunately all of this falls under ths discretion of the ump. It'd be a tough sell to open the roof for the sole reason of the fact that Lilly is pitching and the Jays are ahead.

As for what the fans want, they would likely receive a few complaints about it. The other thing is that the days when this would be most applied would be in April. The Dome needs a few days of testing before it can be called safe to use. Now if there's ice on the Dome, they cannot do the testing. So if it's icy after the first homestand, it might be a month until they can do the appropriate testing. So it wouldn't matter anyways because the roof would be in no shape to move.

As for the fans, they'd complain. If it were up to me, I'd rip the roof off completely and make the park outdoors always, just so we could have rain delays (rain delays are fun as are doubleheaders). People would not like it though.

Though if they could convinvce the umps, they could strategize things a bit. For example, if the Jays hold a lead in the 6th inning, they could elect to open the roof if it isn't raining. Likewise, if the Jays are down some runs, they could close it and hope the Jays put some out.

But between the umps, and the fickle fans, one of them will complain, and not buy into the strategy. When the roof's open, it can turn a 350 foot shot towards the pole, into a 320 lazy fly to the outfielder. It would definitely make a difference.

Godfrey has marketed the Dome as an outdoor park that closes for inclimate weather, but it really isn't so. If it were true, the Dome would be open even while not in use. And they could open it for as long until actual physical rain falls.

Another fun stat tidbit:

Gregg Zaun's two most-similar batters through Age 35 are Greg Myers and Pat Borders.  That's wild.

That is cool.  Zaun is a somewhat better version of Myers.  Better glove and better strike zone control.  We all remember Myers' age 37 season (2003).