The Hardball times has an article on teams who could benefit from a Florida-like Fire-Sale.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/rebuilding-the-marlin-way/

And the Jays are one of the teams.

Jeff Sackmann suggests that "rebuilding the Marlins way" is an option for the Jays in today's THT. 

The headline should read Jays 3 Clippers 2. :)  Still, any victory over the Yankees is a good one.   It's too bad the Yankees wound up celebrating the division title in the locker room but at least they didn't get to do it on the field.  I hope they got held up at Customs!

Watching the game last night on the tube, I had a bad feeling right away when Arnsberg came to the mound, especially so early in the game.  Rod Black and Pat Tabler had J.P. up in the broadcast booth while all this was going on and J.P. basically said "I gotta go, guys".  I was looking forward to seeing Doc on the mound for the home finale Monday.  I'm especially disappointed now that Josh Towers will get the start instead according to bluejays.com.  I really don't want to see him on the mound again until Spring Training.  It looks like Big Papi will be padding his stats that night.  Why not give the start to Downs or Romero instead?  I guess finishing 2nd or 3rd really isn't that big a deal at the end of the day but sending Towers out there makes no sense if they really want to put their best foot forward and finsh 2nd.

Great game for Aaron Hill.  He almost parked another one out of the yard last night and I sure hope he remains at 2nd base next season.  I miss O-Dog but Hill has done a nice job there this year.  Hopefully, he'll hit for more power next season.

 

and a strong outing from Boof Bonser.

Let's re-word that: "... and a strong outing from Boof Bonser, who benefitted from a standard Batter's Box name-in-the-headlines same-day performance boost."

Boo-yah. Er, make that "Boof-yah."

Something Sackmann forgets is that there is a reason the Marlins are such a story this year.  It is because what they did rarely works out this well, no matter how smart your GM is.  Suppose Willis went down with an injury ala AJ?  Suppose Cabrera didn't have his stats improve for the 4th straight year in all 3 rate stats (avg, OBP, Slg all increased each season for him since he made the majors in '03).  A couple of big injuries, a couple of rookies not fulfilling all their promise and suddenly the Marlins are well under 70 wins and no one notices them. 

Plus it helps being in the National League where only two teams have a better record than the Jays, and one of those is by just 1 game.  If the Marlins were in the AL East and had the same record they would be 15 1/2 games out of the wild card and 17 out of first place.  People would be impressed that they were near 500 but it would be no different than the Expos of '03 who cracked 500 then collapsed to a 67-95 record the next season.

It is because what they did rarely works out this well, no matter how smart your GM is.  Suppose Willis went down with an injury ala AJ?  Suppose Cabrera didn't have his stats improve for the 4th straight year in all 3 rate stats (avg, OBP, Slg all increased each season for him since he made the majors in '03).  A couple of big injuries, a couple of rookies not fulfilling all their promise and suddenly the Marlins are well under 70 wins and no one notices them. 

Plus it helps being in the National League where only two teams have a better record than the Jays, and one of those is by just 1 game.  If the Marlins were in the AL East and had the same record they would be 15 1/2 games out of the wild card and 17 out of first place.  People would be impressed that they were near 500 but it would be no different than the Expos of '03 who cracked 500 then collapsed to a 67-95 record the next season.

Some points to keep in mind:

This is the second time that the Marlins have successfully gone this route.  After winning the 1997 World Series they completely dismantled the team and rebuilt with minor league prospects, signed some free-agents for 2003 and won the World Series again, with their best pitcher pitching only 23 innings.  After which they again dismantled.

The main point for 2006 is not that the Marlins are a playoff contender, but that they have done it with a $14 M payroll.  They could add Zito, Schmidt,  Sheffield, and Andruw Jones for 2007 and still have a much lower payroll than the Jays.

Building the nucleus of your team with good young players who haven't yet reached free-agency and then adding a few high priced guys in the seasons when you are ready to compete is a proven method of success.  By stocking your team with a lot of good young players all at the same time you are pretty much insuring at some point down the road you are going to have a lot of low priced high quality major league talent ready to blossom.  And from this position it is easy to build a contending team with a league average payroll.  This is the position where the Marlins currently find themselves.

The downside of this strategy is that there are going to many more putrid seasons than great seasons, and your star players are going to be dealt in their primes.  Not too many fans or owners are prepared to accept a few seasons of futility after each successful run.  But if the Marlins decide that 2007 is the year they could have an awfully good team, at least by NL standards.

I wouldn't advise rebuilding the Marlins way this off-season.  The Jays seem to me to have a much better prospect of being a  contender in 2007 than they will in 2008 or 2009. 

Ultimately the Marlin approach did not lead to success in 2007 in the NL East and would not even have been remotely close to being successful in the AL.  It did serve the club's long-term interest however due to the strength of their farm system.  The state of the Jays' farm system makes their long-term interest quite different. 

 I'm not sure the Marlins have ever even had a great season. Okay, two World Series wins are pretty great, but both times they made the playoffs as the wild card with 92 and 91 wins, which is hardly a dominant team. They wouldn't have made the playoffs at all in the AL.

 What's more, I'm not even sure the rebuilding is worth it: In between the two WS wins, their win totals go 54, 64, 79, 76, 79. I certainly wouldn't want to be the marketing team that has to spin "Only three more years of sucking until we're good again."

  Of course, they could be much higher if they actually spent any money. Florida's obviously got a lot of management talent, but it's also hamstrung by Scrooge-like owners, so it's hardly a model organization. They're kind of the flip side of the Yankees: It's hard to really evaluate the management because ownership takes such an extreme position on payroll.

I wonder how good Florida will be next year.  The dreaded sophomore slump will set upon many of their players and drag down their numbers.  We saw a version of this in Cleveland this year.  Also their pitchers have been very good and the young starters, and Dontrelle, have been durable.  I do not mean to downplay their progress, I would say they are on track to be very good in 2008 once they figure out who can adjust and who cannot.

Ryan got to the point before me.  Basically, what type of team do you want to cheer on?  Which is the team that will make more money in the long run?  One that is consistently good but rarely goes all the way or one that goes through crazy highs and lows? 

Pluses and minuses on both sides.  The 1983-1993 stretch for the Jays was wonderful but if they didn't get those titles at the end how would we all feel?  Would 1987 have been the Jays curse forevermore?  If you could exchange the two titles for the Jays to have been within striking distance every year since but never getting that WS title would you be happier?  Would the team be more/less profitable?  Look at Atlanta for a good example.  They won their only title in the year most didn't pay attention (1995 just after the strike) and every other year since 1991 were in the playoffs.  They had big crowds but those crowds were shrinking iirc.  Still, very good for their fans. 

The Marlins on the other hand...well...given they had to buy up 10k tickets at the end of a season to avoid coming in below the Expos for attendance between the WS wins one has to wonder about how good it is for anyone.  2005 is the only time in Florida's history they were above 500 without going all the way.  As Ryan said the Marlins would yet to have made the playoffs in the AL, and without the Wild Card they'd be yet to make it in the NL as well.

Full rebuilding has to be done sometimes.  However, it should always be held off until you know you are toast (ala the Jays in 1995 - getting David Cone at the start then seeing the team was going nowhere fast and dumping salary quick, although they really should've done more) otherwise fans and players will see it as giving up and you'll find a lot of empty seats and few free agents in a rush to go there without drastically overpaying.

Hmm.  Just hit me.  Since the free agent era started in 76 the teams to win more than one WS...

NY Yankees - 6 (77/78, 96/98/99/00)
Cincinatti - 2 (76, 90)
Dodgers -2 (81/88)
Twins -2 (87/91)
Jays - 2 (92/93)
Marlins -2 (97/03)

Singles are, in order, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, St Louis, Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, NY Mets, Oakland, Atlanta, Arizona, Anaheim/California/LA/whatever, Boston, Chicago Sox.

Only the Yankees have more titles since free agency began than the Marlins.  No one outside of the Yankees has 3 or more wins.  Seems like free agency didn't tip things too much outside of helping the Yanks but it took them 20 years to really get it right.  Should be interesting to see if the Twins or Dodgers can get to 3 and pass Toronto or if Philly/St Louis/Detroit/Mets/A's/ChiSox can get #2.

Schedules out!

Highlights:

• Season opener in Detroit (Can you say roadtrip?)
• Home Opener against Royals
• May 18-24 Jays visit Philly and Baltimore (roadtrip number two)
• Season ends against Tampa Bay at home
• ALL Saturday games now have 1:05 starts except two 7:05 starts. This is the first time in a really long time they've done this.

 

ALL Saturday games now have 1:05 starts except two 7:05 starts. This is the first time in a really long time they've done this.

I suspect it's because of the new TV package.  It'll be even better if the games aren't blacked out out of market and are shown on Extra Innings.

From 2007-2013, "Fox is entitled to a national blackout for games starting from Noon until 6 p.m. ET on Saturdays" according to Wikipedia. I'm guessing that's a longer blackout than before, and that hence a 4pm start has no advantage over a 1pm start anymore.

Also, I didn't realize until now, that as of 2007 the World Series contractually will be starting on a Tuesday instead of a Saturday, but they haven't figured out the scheduling for that (other than that the 2007 WS will start on Oct. 24, 2007).

I'm hoping this means MLB plans to implement the "wildcard-tournament" concept in 2007 (e.g. 4 wildcard teams have 1-game knockouts to reduce to 1 wildcard team, while the division winners get a few days off to set up their pitching), if the players will agree to it, but there's no mention of that.