Thanks to mendocino for the tip.
Thanks to mendocino for the tip.
How many affiliates do teams usually have? Does this have anything to do with the lack of depth in the minors for the Jays?
Obvious needs...
AAA - for near the majors and to keep some old vets just in case
AA - for the kids who are almost ready but who you don't want exposed to older players just yet
A+ - First full season experience - similar in competition to higher level independent leagues
A - Short season - useful for new draft picks to get their feet wet
Less obvious...
A - Full season mid-A - Why not just send them to A+?
A - Low short season - only good for teenagers and players who are entering the US/Canada for the first time, level of play around the semi-pro area, maybe
In truth, the Jays could expose younger players to a level of play much like at Pulaski by putting them into the Intercounty league (the one where ex-major leaguers who live in Toronto go to play such as Paul Spoljaric and the Butler brothers). Probably would be cheaper and a good way to expose them to Canada. Crowds may be virtually nil at many games but I doubt that is any different that the low minors (Dunedin had under 500 to playoff games iirc).
Hmm... I wonder if for the lower levels if it might be better to just loan the top prospects to independant league teams and/or higher level semi-pro leagues. Why spend money on a short season A team and a the like if you really don't need to? Just pay the players salary and expenses and I bet a lot of those indy leagues would be quite happy. Then you just need to cover AAA,AA, and a full season A team. After all, until they hit full season A (Dunedin) at the start of the season you know they have no chance of making it to the majors and near zero for reaching AA or AAA. Getting from Dunedin to the majors in the same season is rare enough (Stieb did it, forget who else).
The A's took five high school pitchers fairly early on in the 2006 draft. I wonder what their plans are for the 18 year olds. Are they going to be in Vancouver in short-season A ball next year?
On one hand there is a cost savings for the team but it isn't huge, say 30 players times $10k a season plus about six staff at say $50k a season. Total savings are probably somewhere under a million dollars per year, not small peanuts but it won't buy you Barry Zito in the off-season.
This change indicates that the Jays are unlikely to move away from their college focus on the draft, the lower levels are better places to start high school players such as Travis Snider. With this change picks like Snider and Juco guys would have to start in Auburn or in the instructional league.
This year the Jays populated Auburn and Pulaski, say 60 players, with about ten returnees, 35 2006 draft picks, some Dominican imports and free agents. With this change the Jays will likely send the top 30 guys to Auburn and leave the balance unsigned until the fall instructional league. The Jays can look at these players in the instructional league and spring training and the non-listed Florida games in April and May and then cut those that don't make the cut.
The other implication is that the Jays might pick more Juco or draft and follow players with picks 35 through 50 in the draft. If they don't have anywhere to play, let them play college ball and evaluate them later.
Hmm... I wonder if for the lower levels if it might be better to just loan the top prospects to independant league teams and/or higher level semi-pro leagues. Why spend money on a short season A team and a the like if you really don't need to?
A couple of reasons off the top of my head.
In your system, the players are taught by coaches that you have hired. You control pitch counts, playing time, and instruction. The purpose of the team is to develop. If you farm these players out elsewhere you have little control of them and you are at the mercy of the team's management, who is trying to win potentially instead of trying to develop.
In one respect developing players is a numbers game. The more prospects you have, the more major league players come out of the system in some respects. Fewer slots in your system means fewer draft picks signed, fewer slots for players and you can make the wrong decision on who to release or not sign. It puts more pressure on your scouting as you have to be right a higher percentage of the time as you are now making decisions on who to release at a cutoff where the players are going to be more talented.
I'm not privy to the finances of the team, but things would have to be pretty bad before I made this move, it seems a bit pennywise, pound foolish to me.
If they're going to go with more Juco or draft and follows instead of college players taken just to fill out Pulaski's team I don't see any harm.
This certainly is not the way I'd operate, but Pistol's point about not bothering to look for Diamonds in the rough verses the cost involved is well taken.
Personally, I have a strong bias towards this level of baseball having grown up in Lethbridge, Alberta during the years the L.A. Dodgers had their Pioneer Rookie league team in town. In fact one of my best friends was the team's assistant general manager/ joe boy. For a time Alan Simpson now the editor of Baseball America was the G.M.
The Dodger's believed in the " shotgun" approach to player development, having scouts all over the place and signing a million guys, having 6 minor league affiliates was a given. They'd send high school players,like Mike Marshall, college players such as Greg Brock and young latin players like Candy Maldonano to the Bridge.
The benefit of such an approach is that you can take a look at some long shots. One such player was this guy. My buddy and I were watching practice one day joking about how bad he was ( he spent 3 years on the team hardly playing in his first 2 years), only to be told by one of the coaches who was in earshot, that we were idiots ( certainly true at the time) , that this guy had the best raw tools on the entire team.
I'm afraid with the Ricciardi approach you just don't get the benefit of such players to much degree, and that's a shame.
This article discusses this and points out Atlanta, and now the Royals, plan to have 7 affiliates.
I've made this argument before, but Ottawa would be an ideal short-season location. The weather is atrocious for baseball through the end of May -- the Lynx will honour unused tickets purchased for April and May games anytime throughout the season -- but from June through the end of August, the conditions are great. The park needs an upgrade, especially in the interior, but the field itself is great. There's enough interest in the Jays locally to merit putting a minor-league franchise here, and the PR effect of a Canadian farm club would be considerable. Too bad the Jays' drafting philosophy doesn't merit two short-season clubs, since Auburn looks pretty solidly ensconced.
The Braves are not listed as having a "Short A" team (whereas the Jays have one in Auburn).
Both organizations are listed as having 2 "Rookie" teams. Each has one in the Appalachian League (Danville for the Braves, Pulaski for the Jays). The 2nd-listed Rookie team for the Braves is the "GCL Braves" (Gulf Coast League), while the Jays' 2nd-listed Rookie team is the "VSL Blue Jays" (Venezuelan Summer League).
I think this league may be the result of American based teams having difficulty getting Visas after 9/11 for for non-American born players. You'd think this would be a good reason for the Jays to maybe have a Canadian team in the NY/Penn league, to perhaps circumvent this problem.
http://www.dominicansummerleague.com/east/norte/toronto.htm
The Jays had a team in the GCL. I think Halladay was a member of the last team in 1995. I recall that the Orioles has only 4 minor league teams at one time in the 80's. I remember Bill James in an Abstract arguing that teams didn't need so many teams for development purposes.
The Jays don't need to change draft philosophies necessarily. There has to be 20-25 players in the minors whose only purpose is to help fill out rosters of minor league teams and these would be the first to go to make room for newly drafted players. The concern is how 17 year old Venezuelans like Chavez will be handled. I think coming to the US and getting acclimatized is very important. Will they now go to Auburn? Only instructional league? They also signed a few more HS'ers this year (in addition to Snider). Auburn too?
I agree that Ottawa would be a good site for a short-season team, although the park is pretty large for a short-season team. Still, with the NYP league now having a substantially larger footprint than it once did, it may be possible to bring Ottawa into the loop, but I think it's still pretty far.
1) Can players be pushed through the system quicker than previously thought
2) With fewer players can the coaches focus more on the 'real' prospects and not waste time on non-prospects?
3) Is it better for younger players to be left in instructional leagues rather than playing 'real' games? Could they learn quicker in a training camp for a season than busing from small town to small town and playing regular games?
To me the 3rd point hits on where I think the Jays are going here. Players who are new to Canada/USA and those who are just too young to play in the NYP league might be better served playing in a controlled environment with drills and coaches stopping a game mid-way to do more instruction. Getting regular rest rather than being bussed all over the place. Spending all their time on baseball rather than learning how to cope with small town life when they really won't ever be in a small town again should they make the majors.
Past studies have shown that the best major leaguers tend to shoot through the minors quickly, ie: in less than 3 seasons. The longer a player is down there the less likely it is for that player to be a star quality player.
Examples from the current Jays using TSN
Overbay - Rookie league-tore to shreds, 1/2 season in full season A, 1 1/2 in AA, 1 and a bit in AAA
Glaus - 1/2 a season in AA, 1/2 in AAA, September in majors in first season with just 7 rehab games in minors since
Hill - 1/2 season in short A, 1/2 in high A, 1 AA, 1/2 in AAA and majors ever since
Adams - 1/2 season short A, about 1 in high A, 1/2 in AA, 1 in AAA, majors then back to AAA this season
Wells - 1 short A, 1 1/2 full A, brief AA, 2 and a bit in AAA before Ash kicked out and Wells given a real shot
Johnson - 1 short A, 1 full A, 1 AA, 70 games in AAA then majors to stay
Cat - 2 in rookie, 1 full A, 2 AA, 1 and a bit in AAA signed as teenager
Zaun - 1 rookie, 1 short A, 2 full A, 1 AA, 1 and a bit AAA then some bouncing but not as much as I expected
Molina - 1 rookie, 1 1/2 short A, 60 games in full A, 1 1/2 AA, 115 AAA before bigs to stay (some rehab in minors since)
Lind - 1 short A, 1 full A, this season AA/AAA/majors
So, for the regulars (not counting guys who really aren't like McDonald) what do we see?
Catchers take more time, but not tons more (Zaun 5 years plus a bit, Molina 6 1/2 both signed as teenagers)
Star quality pushed quick (Wells 5 years was 2 more than needed as he made majors in year 3)
Solid big leaguers didn't waste much time either (Johnson 3 1/2, Cat 6+, Overbay 4+)
The only guys here who would've been hurt by the new philosophy are Zaun, Molina and Cat. All signed as teenagers which the Jays do very little of. Overbay also, but he torn rookie ball to shreads so I doubt he'd have had trouble at a higher level.
To me the risk of putting kids into an instructional league only before shifting to regular play is well worth it given how the Jays operate. Even if they were bringing in tons of kids from out-of-country ala the Jays of the 80's perhaps an instructional league would've been more useful until they learn the language and the like. Guess we'll see over the next 5 years if this works or not.
Halladay - 1 rookie, 1 full A, 1/3 AA, 1 2/3 AAA, majors, meltdown, 1/2 AAA, 1/2 season mixed between high A/AA/AAA
AJ - 2 and a bit rookie, 1 low A, 1 full A, 1 AA, then just rehab in minors
Lilly - 1 Low A, 1 Full A, 1/2 AA, 2 and a bit AAA
Chacin - 1 rookie, 1 full A, 4 AA then majors (2 games in AAA)
Janssen - 1 low A, 1/2 full A, 1/2 AA, 1/2 AAA this year
Marcum - 1 low A, 1 full A, 1/2 AA, 1/2 AAA, majors plus this year mixed AAA/majors
Towers - 1 rookie, 2 full A, 1 AA, about 3 AAA (kept going up and down in Baltimore & Toronto)
The pattern I see is rookie is normally just 1 season then AAA is where they stall out if anywhere. AJ took 2 years in rookie ball due to wildness (88 walks in 103 IP in rookie but just 2 HR and 109 K). One wonders how much was his wildness and how much was poor umpires (natch rookie gets the worst). Could it have been better if he spent that first year in the teams instructional league then went straight to low A? Maybe.