Played correctly a Wells trade could make the Jays better next year and beyond.

My thoughts exactly.  I love Vernon and would hate to see him leave, but, from a "making the team better" perspective it makes alot of sense to trade him this off-season.  You should be able to get very good value for him, and the Jays have a replacement CF available in Rios.  And of course if you don't trade him, then you have to think about what to do next off-season, with Halladay, Burnett, Ryan, and Glaus' contracts on the books can you afford to sign Wells long-term at all?

It seems like Keith Law has only had negative things to say about the Jays ever since he left the club. Pehaps he has an axe to grind just like a lot of other people that have left the Jays during the JP regime (Buck, Tosca, Hillenbrand, Koch, etc.....)

If Law is correct, it's nothing new. I've been saying for weeks that the Jays should explore trading Wells if there's going to be a budget problem or he doesn't want to play in Toronto long term.

I still don't know who the real Vernon Wells is. He's been terrific this season and in 03, but he was only slightly above average in 04 and 05. The though of the Jays offering Wells a 5yr/70-75 mil type of contract scares the heck out of me.

Let's cue up the Wells for Santana, Aybar, and Mathis bandwagon again.

On the Yes broadcast today, the announcers were saying wouldn't Wells be a nice fit in Boston. Of course they later said he would look good on any team. There's a few young players I wouldn't mind getting from the Boston organization.........

Let me add Vernon Wells was on ESPN Radio a few weeks ago and he said he really enjoyed playing in Toronto. He mentioned how his whole career has been with the Jays and the fans are great. Wells also added contract extension discussion would take place in the off-season and not during the season. JP on the last edition of WWJP said the ball is in Well's court if he wants to stay or not.

Very depressing, but I say keep him.  Until at least next June, and only then if 2007 is a write-off.

Pistol, if the Jays can't hope for postseason success next year, then they can't hope for it any year.  Their farm system does not exactly scream "2010 World Champs."  The Jays are a lot closer to the Red Sox at the major league level than they are at the minor league level.

Billy Beane's model is instructive:  When you can't easily cover for a player, like Giambi, Tejada and Zito, you retain the players in the final year of their contract -- even when they're certain to walk -- in order to compete.  When you can cover, or you feel the player is in decline (a blend of these considerations factored into Hudson and Mulder), then you deal them prior to their walk year.

I'm surprised and disappointed that a sophisticated and knowledgeable reporter like Keith Law would refer to Wells' contract year as "another Delgado situation."  It's plainly not that.  Delgado provided $10M in production for $18M on a $45M team.  Wells provides $13M in production for $5.6M on an $80M team.  That dramatically lessens the need to unload him.  You can't get Wells' production for Wells' salary -- so the options are, if you move him, to accept an offensive and defensive downgrade or replace his offensive and defensive impact -- which will cost far more than simply keeping him will cost.

You cannot, cannot, cannot trade him, Shawn Green style, for cents on the dollar in the spirit of "we can't lose him for nothing" when the present is so much brighter than the future.  I haven't even considered the effect of a dump-Wells-for-iffy-prospects move on the happiness of, say, Troy Glaus or (worse) B.J. Ryan or (even worse) Roy Halladay. 

If, on the other hand, you can trade Wells in a deal that actually makes the team stronger for 2007 and for the future -- which is possible -- then of course you make it.  But wouldn't you do so under any circumstances anyway?

Mike D has the situation right.  This club can be very nicely balanced, offensively and defensively, in 2007.  There is little chance of that in 2008-10 due to economic pressures and the absence of good offensive talent in the high minors.  That's not to say that the team cannot win- there are a number of young pitchers who could get very good, very fast- but that this team is much less likely to contend  in 2008-10 than it was/is in 2006-7. 

Yesterday, I wrote:

I sincerely hope this is as bad as it gets.

I was wrong.

When your franchise player doesn't want to stay with the franchise -- when your team leader and best player tells you more than a year before his contract expires that he's not coming back -- then your organization has more problems than it knows what to do with.

Right now, I don't give a damn who the Jays obtain when they trade Vernon Wells; this whole season and the whole state of the ballclub has left a bad taste in my mouth. See you next spring, maybe.

I also have to agree with Ron about Keith Law -- why, exactly, is he so eager to muckrake about Blue Jays situations if he isn't settling some kind of score?  Maybe he feels like writing these kind of stories and other negative analyses establishes some street cred as an independent without a pro-Jays bias. 

I find it distasteful and unprofessional.  Either he's leaking information that he only has/had access to because of his position, or (and he has to know this) he enjoys printing Jays stories knowing that he has the perceived imprimatur of a Jays insider to readers.  Neither is appropriate.

Why doesn't he just publish the team's coaching signs in his next blog entry?

November 14, 2003: Minnesota Twins traded A.J. Pierzynski and cash to the San Francisco Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonzer.

I'm dreaming ... but I know it's all hot air
I'm dreaming ... I'll get back to that rocking chair
I'm dreaming

Yeah, I kind of expected this to happen. But it still makes me sad.

I always think it's best to only have players on the team that want to be there. If they want to be somewhere else, get rid of them. It's no fun having a player in the clubhouse with one foot out the door.

The Jays should be able to obtain a good package for Wells; if they don't get what they want, they can always keep him for a while in '07.

Wells has denied that he told Law this information. “The conversation never happened... It's a complete fabrication.”

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1155937810931&call_pageid=969907739730&col=970081600908

Of course this is not the same as denying that he has decided to leave, or that he is unhappy with the ethnic balance of the clubhouse. If that lack of denial is maintained, we would probably have to conclude that the Law report correctly reports his feelings.

After thinking more on this, here's another $0.02:

If, in fact, Vernon really does want out, you have to give him credit for doing it in a classy way. He has never complained about being underpaid (which he currently is, woefully). He's never blasted the Jays or their management. He's told the club of his intentions well in advance, so that they can make plans appropriately. And it's not as if he announced his desire to leave; Keith Law has basically leaked it. In all of this, his behaviour has been similar to that of another ex-Jay, Shawn Green.

And, hey, you can't blame someone for wanting to work closer to home.

Common guys... cheer up!

Look at the posititives from this season, there's a lot.

Halladay dominating without dominating stuff. I think this shows some great maturation and understanding of his abilities. Rather then truly dominate and throw out his arm he just cruises his way to a 15-3, 3.20ERA, amongst lead innings leaders.

Rios showing a true shot of the talent he has. Too bad he needs the offseason to put back on all that muscle he lost during the staph infection. He'll be back.

Glaus has been fun to watch. That is undenable. I don't give a damn about fielding statistics. Watch the game. He is not a bad thirdbasemen by any means. And he is a true slugger.

BJ Ryan. Brandon League. Shawn Marcum. Jeremy Accardo.

Reed Johnson, The Cat. I doubt Reed will ever hit .350 + for over half a year again, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprsied if he settled down around .300 for the next couple years. How many game tying RBI's or game winning RBI's has Cat had? Or the "in-between hit" - the single that moves a runner from first to second/third who ends up to score a crucial run. I'd bet that Cat is one of the team leaders in this category.

Competing with the Yankees and Red Sox for a good while without essentially 3/5 of the starting rotation. THAT is impressive. That is a more serious loss then losing some star outfielders (which, by the way, the Jays did too). Pitching is of the utmost importance in baseball, and that's where the Jays got hit the hardest.

For a good while, having us fans generally entralled with the team and its chances. Last year I know the team hung around but you really had the feeling they were in way over their heads and the wheels were bound to come off.

Spectulation can be fun, but the spectulation in this thread stinks. I'm of the believer Rogers is going to give JP some more money. *Crosses fingers*

If Wells does get traded, I'll try to take the positive (THAT I PRAY TO FREAKING GOD) comes from it - young, "make your mouth water", talent. (hopefully, young, make your mouth water pitching talent).

Common guys.. think of the good things! There's been a lot this year. Don't let a series of poorly timed, unfortunate events leave a rotten taste in your mouth. I'll be watching just as many games as I can from here on out. I might not like the decisions JP makes, but I love the Jays, and I will always support them regardless of the forces higher up.

*waves Jay's banner*

Not to resurrect the whole Hinske thing, which has been suitably beaten to death in these parts, but at any time over the past three seasons, who could possibly have imagined that he would suddenly be greeted so warmly on a new team challenging for the playoffs?

From what I read, he was receiving standing ovations in Boston yesterday, at least during his 3-for-4 debut. Probably not so much in his 0-for-3 effort in game two, though.

I wish him luck. He handled his lack of playing time with dignity, though truthfully he never had much cause to warrant being outspoken about it. Still, his refreshing humility permitted him to morph from being Skydome whipping boy to sympathetic Rogers Center underdog, a very unlikely transmogrification.

I do have a serious question, though. To whom will Hinske pass the baton to offer up a 120-decible F... me when I need my profanity fix between seasons of the Sopranos?

Seguing from Hinske, he does serve as a valuable data point to show how easy it is to become convinced that a player's current level has become his newly established level (some have cited that he'd be worth his paycheque as 2007 DH, given his new level of performance). The challenge for the guys who sign the paycheques is to suss out when a new baseline has truly been established and when the fickle finger of fate has arbitrarily intervened to contribute to an alien-entered-my-body type of season.

The inherently optimistic side of our personalities, even those, like myself, who tend too often to see the glass half empty, can lead us into trouble. What will Vernon Wells do in 2007 (and beyond)?

A true optimist would say that his 900 OPS in 2003 suggests that this year's 950 OPS isn't a fluke. He's 27, in his peak, more disciplined at the plate, and shows no reason why he shouldn't post another 900+ OPS next year. Sign him up at $15M per.

A true pessimist might say that this was his age-27 season, the best it typically gets (so I hope you enjoyed it), and that he regressed once after his big 2003 so could well regress again, back to the land of 750-800, making him a good, but not great player, given his defense at a key position. Let someone else endure the disappointment of his inevitable regression.

I suppose a moderate might say that his career average 830 OPS is a likely destination, or perhaps somewhat higher, say 860, if one were to more heavily weigh 2006 into the formula.

Whatever happens in 2007, there will be those who just knew that he'd be performing as they expected, insofar as all three camps have their constituents. And why didn't Ricciardi/some other team's GM have the foresight they had?

I suspect a great many in these parts believe that Wells has indeed morphed into a predictably top-shelf player. I don't pretend to know that he has or hasn't. While it certainly seems that the Wells we see now is the Wells who currently exists, and that past incarnations of the man known as Vernon Wells are entirely irrelevant, neither of an 800 or 950 OPS in 2007 would shock me.

This seems to imply that being a writer is equivalent to being an idiot.

I'm a writer by trade (technical writer, occasional creative writer) - and, yes, he's right: being a writer is equivalent to being an idiot. Now, please excuse me: I have to go smush peanut butter into my hair and screech off-key in the subway.

Reading the Griffin quote about Law, " being an idiot", seems to be obvious sarcasm. Also I imagine Vernon's agent when he read the Law story went ballistic and immediately told his client to deny the story to retain his bargaining power, that's standard operating procedure.

Law before becoming a writer with ESPN, and before his Blue Jay stint,  was a very well respected writer with Baseball Prospectus. I wouldn't being shooting the messenger just yet .

Also I'm not so sure that Vernon will find a soft landing in hometown Arlington come 2007. They have Millwood/Blalock locked up with long term contracts, but Texeria and Young become free agents after 2008 and are in line for seven figure salaries, Carlos Lee is a free agent after this year,  Wilkerson in 2007. This does not even address their pitching needs, can Texas afford 4-5 big ticket items? Some important  decisions need to be made.

The inherently optimistic side of our personalities, even those, like myself, who tend too often to see the glass half empty, can lead us into trouble. What will Vernon Wells do in 2007 (and beyond)?

Great question.  Let's try to figure it out logically.

Studying his 5-year major league career (age 23 to 27) gives us lots of data.


Age        Actual OPS    BABIP    True OPS   BB Rate  Contact   Batting         ISO
                                                                                   Rate        Eye         Power

23              .762         .290         .762            .043          .86         .32              .182
24              .909         .320         .864            .058          .88         .53              .233
25              .809         .290         .809            .086          .85         .61              .200
26              .783         .270         .813            .070          .86         .55              .194
27              .957         .330         .897            .084          .85         .61              .262

Wells is currently having his career best season in terms of BABIP and power.  His plate discipline is the 2nd best of his career and his batting eye is tied for a career best.  Rather interestingly is that his contact rate is tied for his career low, but thanks to a high BABIP his batting average has actually gone up significantly.

A power spike at age 27 is not unusual and should be a precursor of things to come for the next three to four seasons.  He seems to have sacrificed a little of his contact to increase his power, with excellent results.

Based on the skills that he has shown so far, I would estimate his 2007 performance as follows.


Age        Actual OPS    BABIP    True OPS   BB Rate  Contact   Batting         ISO
                                                                                    Rate        Eye         Power

28              .880         .300         .880            .082          .86         .58              .240

This will be affected slightly by how he finishes up in 2006, and could be affected significantly if he has a new home park next season.


Factoring in position played, defense contribution, and park factors we have the following data:

                   WARP         RAR       

23                  3.2             +17       
24                  6.8             +14     
25                  4.3             +21       
26                  4.7             +24      
27 (so far)      4.7               +5      

One thing that is worth noting is that his defensive contribution has nose dived this season after peaking in the previous two seasons.   This is not due to Rios making catches that Vernon used to make, as Rios's defense has not improved at all from 2005.

All in all, easily worth $15 M a year on the free-agent market, although the defensive decline may indicate that switching to Rios may actually be a defensive improvent, at least when compared to 2006.

"Solid sources or not, Keith Law is an idiot.  If for nothing else than he brings up the race thing again.  Why would you do that?"

Obviously, I have no idea if what Keith said is true or isn't (though given Keith's reputation, I suspect it's true), it may be because Wells had brought it up.   If it was something that was bothering VW (and again, I have no idea if it is/was) and Wells had mentioned it to members of the Jays front office, why shouldn't Keith report about it?

What stat(s) are used to determine in this case that Vernon's defence is way down?  Errors, chances or some other number? I hesitate to comment till I know what you're using to base the declining defence supposition on.

RAR - Runs Above Replacement.  Published by Basebal Prospectus

Fielding Statistics as Center Fielder

 YEAR TEAM  POS    RAR2 
 1999 TOR-A CF       3 
 2000 TOR-A CF       0 
 2001 TOR-A CF       3 
 2002 TOR-A CF      17 
 2003 TOR-A CF      14 
 2004 TOR-A CF      21 
 2005 TOR-A CF      24 
 2006 TOR-A CF       5 
            

l

"Do you honestly believe that Wells would say to J.P. 'this team is too white.'?? "

No, but Keith never suggests that Wells did.

But do you think it's possible that Wells might have grumbled something about it (perhaps in frustration) when some of his non-white teammates get traded to other clubs or sign elsewhere as free agents?

I have no idea if Wells did or not, but neither do you.  One person who would be in a position to know is Keith.

Vernon Wells just set the record straight with Jamie Campbell.

He never talked to JP about not being interested in remaning a Jay past 2007. He never mentioned the lack of diversity in the clubhouse and he's actually open to the idea of being a Jay in the future.

Keith Law is talking out of his ass. Shame on him.

I put more stock in the words of the person in question than a so called "insider".

I think RIccardi was basically back stabbed, and since he simply made up that report, he had every right to call him an idiot.

Law stands behind his report.  Why should we assume that he lied instead of JP and VW?  There is probably a lot of gray area here.  To say that Law made up his report is very presumptuous.

The issue is not whether JP has the right to call him an idiot.  Of course, he has the right.  However, it makes him look childish and when you call a former colleague an idiot in a newspaper, it takes the issue up to a whole other level.  Rather than temper the situation, he fanned the flames.  Is there something wrong with being above a war of words through the media?

The point of my post is that there is constantly so kind of off-the-field drama with this team.  A lot of it has to do with the GM saying publicly what he should say privately.

Keith Law is anything but a "true hack" who uses "B.S. journalism". Before coming to Toronto he was a highly regarded writer with Baseball Prospectus. He's not going to run with something unless it's true. I'm not happy with the race thing being raised again, especially since Wells and Hudson basically laughed off Baker's ramblings and said they didn't care what colour their teammates were, as long as they could play. It smells of a nasty dig at your former employee. What's more concerning is the leak in the front office. What other dirty little secrets will be divulged? I don't like the timing of it and I don't like the fact that it comes from a former Jays employee, but the rumour of Vernon Wells not re-signing has been around for all of this year and Keith Law is paid to be an "insider". Probably Rosenthal's floated it out there a few times, but he's not a former employee.

I'm also concerned by Ricciardi's comments. He keeps demonstrating that he has not learned from past mistakes. He seems to have a problem with anger management and sticking his foot in his mouth. At first his candid commentary was a refreshing break from the vanilla cliche-speak that abounds in the game, but it is getting tiresome to see all the brushfires it is creating. Take the freakin' highroad for once. I know you gave him his big major league break, but a simple denial would suffice. The personal insults just make JP and thus the organization bad.

Keith Law is anything but a "true hack" who uses "B.S. journalism". Before coming to Toronto he was a highly regarded writer with Baseball Prospectus. He's not going to run with something unless it's true.

I'm not here to defend or criticize Law, but how much credit does he get for his years at BP?   I like BP, but they're hardly an industry leader when it comes to breaking stories.  They had the false Rose rumours, and Will Caroll occaisionally gets some injury news before anyone else.  

"Vernon Wells just set the record straight with Jamie Campbell.

Vernon Wells seems like an articulate and sincere person. But that having been said, what could possibly motivate him to say anything other than what he said to Jamie Campbell? Such an interview is pointless because no matter what the truth is, you're going to get the response that we heard. Darren Fletcher had it right when he said that Wells, or any player, would respond as he did no matter what the truth was. Why compromise your negotiating leverage?

It's like asking Ricciardi if he's got a deal in the works to acquire Glaus. Why on earth would he tell the truth while the deal is being negotiated? Why even bother asking him when you know what the answer will be?

Mike's right in that the truth in this matter is unknowable to everyone not directly involved.

For a while there, J.P. had it pretty easy.  The other two general managers in Toronto, Ferguson and Babcock, were a couple of chuckleheads, and with the Leafs and Raptors struggling, that meant the expectations for the Jays were relatively low.  Stuck in a division with the two highest-spending teams in the sport, there was always a handy excuse for why the ball club wasn't making any progress.

But then - something changed.  Rob Babcock got the boot, and in came Bryan Colangelo, the former GM of the Phoenix Suns, a man who has an impressive line on his resume - an NBA Championship.  This guy wasn't a chucklehead; this guy knows what he's doing.  He has a plan.  Suddenly, J.P. doesn't look so good.  Suddenly, there's a new guy in town with a plan to reshape a moribund franchise into a playoff-bound contender.  Sound familiar?  Sure, Colangelo's got it a little easier - more playoff teams in the NBA, there's no massive payroll disparities - but even so, the Raptors have been a crappy team for quite a while now.  Yet in only a few months, Colangelo took the Raptors' roster, shook off the dead weight, brought in a pile of new players, and now you can barely recognize the team.  We won't know for a year or two if Colangelo's strategy will work, but every move was made with a measured confidence.  Confidence, not arrogance.  To this point, the new Raptors GM has given the franchise a glossy sheen of professionalism and competence. 

Meanwhile, J.P.'s plan has gone through several revisions over the years as circumstances changed, and that's understandable.  First there was no money, then there was a little money, then the Skydome was bought, then there was a lot more money, but not too much money.  The Jays used to be sellers, then they were buyers, but still we never quite escaped the umbrella of excuses.  The Jays got AJ and BJ, but they cost so much because you have to pay extra to convince otherwise reasonable men that Canada is not a frozen wasteland.  They traded ken_warren's prom date to Arizona for a slugging third baseman because pitching and defense isn't the problem, hitting is the problem.  They signed a catcher who occasionally has trouble catching the ball because the guy they already had was... uh... too good or something.  And in a perfect world, where injuries only happen to the Yankees and Red Sox, Burnett and Chacin wouldn't have missed time, and the Jays might have had three or four more wins than they have now.  Damn the luck!  Now we're back to where we started five years ago, when the Jays couldn't compete with the free-spending Yankees and Red Sox, not to mention the White Sox and Twins and Tigers.  Now we'll have to trade Vernon because there's no way in hell we can sign him to a Delgado-sized contract.  We'll say goodbye to the Cat and Ted Lilly because we can't afford them, too.

Okay, so now you're Paul Godfrey.  J.P.'s your boy, and he's done pretty much what you wanted, which was to provide a relatively cost-effective team that might make the playoffs if that flush draw card turns up on the river.  But here's the thing - it's not just the media that's pissed off at your boy anymore.  The Wednesdays with J.P. show is hard to listen to because your boy can barely conceal his impatience and contempt.  You've had to deal with one player mutiny, and now ESPN is reporting your most important position player is not interested in staying any longer than he has to.  You wonder whether or not your boy's people skills might be at least partly responsible - after all, he's basically labelled all sportswriters 'idiots'.  (Some are, but most aren't - remember, you used to run a newspaper?)  You look across the street, and the Raptors - remember how the Raptors were the laughing-stock of the league? - the Raptors got themselves a guy who by his very presence makes the team a playoff contender.  You wince at every negative article in the local media, and you know that convincing Bud Selig to consider expanding the number of playoff teams is still an uphill battle.

So maybe you quietly start looking for your own Bryan Colangelo.

I hear there's one in Philly who might like to come back.