Don't cut my throat, I may want to do that later myself.
--Casey Stengel, to his barber
Well. Shall we begin the post-mortems now, or is it too early?
It really is too early, to be honest. Almost two months remain, and a lot can happen. The Los Angeles Dodgers, after losing 13 of 14 coming out of the All-Star Break, have suddenly ripped off seven wins in a row, which has put them back into the thick of things in the NL West. Of course, this is the NL West that we speak of - but what of the AL Wild Card? Minnesota righted their season in mid-June by winning 18 of 19 - they then put themselves squarely into the Wild Card hunt by winning 12 of 13 after the break. So... all things are still possible. Even now.
However... the Blue Jays are now on pace to finish third with an 85-77 record, which would be disappointing. (To me, as well - my prediction was 90-72, second place, no wild card.) What's gone wrong?
Unlike 2005, it doesn't look like bad luck. The Blue Jays are but one game below their expected Pythagoran record. (This year's big Pythagorean underachiever is Cleveland, who should be more or less even with Minnesota. )
This year, they've come up with a different problem. Want to guess what it might be? Here's a hint - how did they do on that last road trip?
If only Road Games counted... the Blue Jays would be in an awful lot of trouble.
Minnesota, of course, has done this sort of thing before. In 1987, the Twins went 56-25 (.691) at home, and just 29-52 (.358) on the road. They then went undefeated in six home post-season games (they were 2-4 on the road) en route to a World Series championship. Since moving into the HubieDome in 1982, the Twins have played .531 ball at home, and just .436 on the road. The home-road split is .095. Toronto has played .533 ball at home since 1989 and .481 ball on the road for a home-road split of .052.
So what happens to the Jays when they leave home?
Two things. They don't hit nearly as well. And they don't pitch nearly as well. Aside from that, they seem pretty much the same.
They don't hit nearly as well. At the RC, the Jays are scoring 5.89 runs per game. It's the best offense in the league. But on the road, they're scoring just 4.6 runs per game, 10th best in the league. They maintain just 78% of their offensive production away from home - only Minnesota and Kansas City lose as much from the attack. So that's an issue, and let's see if we can figure out why:
The Jays have hit 44 more HRs at home than they have on the road - that's the largest home/road split in the league. Yes, a bigger drop-off than Chicago (88 Hrs at home, 77 on the road.) Bigger than Texas (71 Hrs at home, 68 on the road.)
The team's batting average is down a little, but they're getting almost as many people on base - the big drop-off is in slugging percentage, and the bulk of that comes from losing almost half of their home-run production.
Now we all know that the RC is a hitter's park. We should expect some offensive drop-off. Granted, they've lost more offense than we would reasonably expect. But there is a more serious problem when they hit the road...
They play their home games in a hitter's park, but the Jays pitchers have allowed just 4.45 runs per game at home. Only four teams - Detroit, Minnesota, New York, and Oakland - have given up fewer runs at home. But on the road, they're getting the crap kicked out of them. The Jays are allowing 5.44 runs per game away from home. Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Kansas City are the only teams giving up more runs away from home - which is no comfort at all. Those are three pretty crummy pitching staffs, which is why they give up lots of runs at home, too. But no AL team loses as much value from their pitching staff when they go on the road as the Blue Jays do. Check it out:
Having crunched them... pretty much the entire staff, with the exceptions of Halladay and Speier, have suffered when leaving the RC. The bullpen has been indeed a problem. Away from home, Downs, Schoeneweis, Frasor, Tallet, have all been terrible. BJ Ryan has been good on the road, and sensational at home. Justin Speier has actually been a little better on the road, and naturally he's pitched significantly more innings at home.
As for the starters... Doc has pitched a little better on the road than at home. That's not a huge surprise - moving from the turf to real grass is not going to hurt a groundball machine who throws strike. Ted Lilly and Casey Janssen have been much. much better at home, as has AJ Burnett in his limited action.
The overall problem? Walks and hits. Well, duh. The staff is giving up home runs at about the same rate at home and on the road - it's the base hits that are killing them. The opposition is hitting .281 in their own parks, and .254 in the RC. The staff is issuing 3.6 BB/ 9 on the road, and 2.9 BB/9 at home.
--Casey Stengel, to his barber
Well. Shall we begin the post-mortems now, or is it too early?
It really is too early, to be honest. Almost two months remain, and a lot can happen. The Los Angeles Dodgers, after losing 13 of 14 coming out of the All-Star Break, have suddenly ripped off seven wins in a row, which has put them back into the thick of things in the NL West. Of course, this is the NL West that we speak of - but what of the AL Wild Card? Minnesota righted their season in mid-June by winning 18 of 19 - they then put themselves squarely into the Wild Card hunt by winning 12 of 13 after the break. So... all things are still possible. Even now.
However... the Blue Jays are now on pace to finish third with an 85-77 record, which would be disappointing. (To me, as well - my prediction was 90-72, second place, no wild card.) What's gone wrong?
Unlike 2005, it doesn't look like bad luck. The Blue Jays are but one game below their expected Pythagoran record. (This year's big Pythagorean underachiever is Cleveland, who should be more or less even with Minnesota. )
This year, they've come up with a different problem. Want to guess what it might be? Here's a hint - how did they do on that last road trip?
If only Road Games counted... the Blue Jays would be in an awful lot of trouble.
W L PCT. RUNS RALuckily, for the Jays and Twins in particular, everybody gets to play half their games at home.
1 Detroit 39 19 0.672 323 223
2 NY Yankees 28 22 0.560 281 255
3 Chicago Sox 29 24 0.547 301 283
4 Texas 29 24 0.547 283 245
5 LA Angels 30 26 0.536 305 271
6 Boston 29 26 0.527 303 285
7 Oakland 29 26 0.527 252 248
8 Seattle 25 28 0.472 262 241
9 Minnesota 23 30 0.434 229 262
10 Toronto 22 30 0.423 239 283
11 Cleveland 21 31 0.404 283 272
12 Baltimore 20 31 0.392 222 305
13 Tampa Bay 18 39 0.316 240 316
14 Kansas City 15 40 0.273 211 334
W L PCT. RUNS RAThe Blue Jays have played .625 ball at home, and .423 ball on the road. It really is an enormous difference - only the Twins have a significantly larger home-road split. In fact, since moving into the Dome in 1989, no Blue Jays team has had such a large a home-road split as this year's crew. Some Jays teams have actually played significantly better on the road than at home (2003 and 1999 in particular.)
1 Minnesota 39 15 0.722 312 223
2 Boston 35 17 0.673 289 245
3 Detroit 33 17 0.660 245 204
4 NY Yankees 36 19 0.655 309 239
5 Chicago Sox 34 19 0.642 305 236
6 Toronto 35 21 0.625 330 249
7 Oakland 28 25 0.528 228 233
8 Seattle 28 26 0.519 244 256
9 Tampa Bay 27 25 0.519 242 275
10 Baltimore 29 29 0.500 307 308
11 LA Angels 25 27 0.481 219 234
12 Cleveland 26 29 0.473 302 281
13 Texas 26 30 0.464 273 289
14 Kansas City 23 30 0.434 282 305
Minnesota, of course, has done this sort of thing before. In 1987, the Twins went 56-25 (.691) at home, and just 29-52 (.358) on the road. They then went undefeated in six home post-season games (they were 2-4 on the road) en route to a World Series championship. Since moving into the HubieDome in 1982, the Twins have played .531 ball at home, and just .436 on the road. The home-road split is .095. Toronto has played .533 ball at home since 1989 and .481 ball on the road for a home-road split of .052.
So what happens to the Jays when they leave home?
Two things. They don't hit nearly as well. And they don't pitch nearly as well. Aside from that, they seem pretty much the same.
They don't hit nearly as well. At the RC, the Jays are scoring 5.89 runs per game. It's the best offense in the league. But on the road, they're scoring just 4.6 runs per game, 10th best in the league. They maintain just 78% of their offensive production away from home - only Minnesota and Kansas City lose as much from the attack. So that's an issue, and let's see if we can figure out why:
HOME G AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLGGet 'em on the road, and this happens:
Vernon Wells 52 204 38 68 14 3 20 148 49 20 29 3 2 .333 .390 .725
Alex Rios 40 136 27 47 9 0 10 86 30 15 22 7 3 .346 .408 .632
Reed Johnson 47 148 37 53 15 2 3 81 20 11 23 3 0 .358 .435 .547
Lyle Overbay 54 211 36 66 16 1 13 123 40 18 37 1 1 .313 .368 .583
Troy Glaus 52 196 39 51 11 0 19 119 46 25 48 2 0 .260 .344 .607
Eric Hinske 35 95 20 26 5 2 6 53 17 15 21 0 1 .274 .373 .558
Frank Catalanotto 47 157 22 54 12 0 2 72 28 24 14 0 2 .344 .433 .459
Gregg Zaun 32 94 13 24 4 0 6 46 15 15 16 0 1 .255 .357 .489
Shea Hillenbrand 42 154 21 49 7 1 5 73 18 6 21 1 1 .318 .345 .474
Chad Mottola 6 9 3 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 .333 .333 .444
Bengie Molina 40 150 16 43 8 0 6 69 18 4 16 0 0 .287 .314 .460
Aaron Hill 54 193 31 56 14 2 2 80 12 13 23 1 0 .290 .340 .415
Luis Figueroa 5 4 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 .250 .250 .500
Russ Adams 36 108 15 23 7 0 2 36 14 6 22 1 0 .213 .254 .333
John McDonald 30 64 10 13 1 1 1 19 5 4 8 4 1 .203 .254 .297
Edgardo Alfonzo 6 18 0 2 1 0 0 3 3 2 1 0 0 .111 .238 .167
Jason Phillips 4 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 .167 .167 .167
TOTAL 56 1947 330 580 126 12 95 1015 317 178 306 23 12 .298 .361 .521
AWAY G AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLGHey, where did all the home runs go? Vernon Wells has hit 20 HRs at home, just 6 on the road. Troy Glaus has 19 at home, 9 on the road. Lyle Overbay has hit 13 at home, and just 3 on the road. The three of them have combined to hit 52 HRs at home, but just 18 on the road. (Friday night's game, in which Glaus hit two more dingers at the RC, is not included in these Data Tables, by the way.)
Reed Johnson 40 139 30 48 11 0 4 71 11 13 15 5 1 .345 .428 .511
Eric Hinske 36 83 13 24 4 0 6 46 12 8 22 0 0 .289 .352 .554
Troy Glaus 49 173 35 46 10 0 9 83 34 37 45 1 2 .266 .397 .480
Vernon Wells 49 195 23 60 13 1 6 93 29 22 30 8 1 .308 .377 .477
Frank Catalanotto 41 126 17 35 8 1 5 60 19 18 9 0 1 .278 .372 .476
Alex Rios 38 158 21 48 11 2 5 78 25 9 32 3 2 .304 .341 .494
Shea Hillenbrand 39 142 19 40 8 0 7 69 21 8 19 0 1 .282 .338 .486
Gregg Zaun 31 91 9 26 8 0 1 37 9 15 13 0 0 .286 .383 .407
Aaron Hill 49 168 17 52 7 1 0 61 20 14 20 2 1 .310 .371 .363
Lyle Overbay 50 190 18 53 11 0 3 73 22 19 33 1 1 .279 .346 .384
Bengie Molina 36 131 10 35 4 0 2 45 9 11 13 0 1 .267 .319 .344
John McDonald 27 69 10 18 2 0 1 23 7 5 7 2 0 .261 .320 .333
Russ Adams 30 94 11 22 4 1 1 31 11 9 10 0 1 .234 .301 .330
Edgardo Alfonzo 6 19 4 4 0 0 0 4 1 3 0 0 0 .211 .318 .211
Chad Mottola 4 7 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 .143 .143 .286
Ryan Roberts 3 6 1 1 0 0 1 4 1 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .667
Josh Towers 2 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 .200 .200 .200
Luis Figueroa 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Jason Phillips 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
A.J. Burnett 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Roy Halladay 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Ted Lilly 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Ty Taubenheim 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 .333 .333 .333
Casey Janssen 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Francisco Rosario 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
TOTAL 52 1819 239 515 102 6 51 782 231 191 277 22 12 .283 .356 .430
The Jays have hit 44 more HRs at home than they have on the road - that's the largest home/road split in the league. Yes, a bigger drop-off than Chicago (88 Hrs at home, 77 on the road.) Bigger than Texas (71 Hrs at home, 68 on the road.)
The team's batting average is down a little, but they're getting almost as many people on base - the big drop-off is in slugging percentage, and the bulk of that comes from losing almost half of their home-run production.
Now we all know that the RC is a hitter's park. We should expect some offensive drop-off. Granted, they've lost more offense than we would reasonably expect. But there is a more serious problem when they hit the road...
They play their home games in a hitter's park, but the Jays pitchers have allowed just 4.45 runs per game at home. Only four teams - Detroit, Minnesota, New York, and Oakland - have given up fewer runs at home. But on the road, they're getting the crap kicked out of them. The Jays are allowing 5.44 runs per game away from home. Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Kansas City are the only teams giving up more runs away from home - which is no comfort at all. Those are three pretty crummy pitching staffs, which is why they give up lots of runs at home, too. But no AL team loses as much value from their pitching staff when they go on the road as the Blue Jays do. Check it out:
HOME G GS W L Sv Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERAAnd here's the same crew on the road:
B.J. Ryan 25 0 1 0 11 0 31.0 17 4 4 1 5 44 12.77 0.71 1.16
Justin Speier 26 0 1 0 0 12 25.1 17 9 9 3 8 27 9.59 0.99 3.20
Roy Halladay 11 11 7 1 0 0 81.0 75 29 30 9 7 43 4.78 1.01 3.22
Ted Lilly 12 12 6 4 0 0 72.0 61 27 29 12 40 64 8.00 1.40 3.38
Shaun Marcum 5 2 1 0 0 0 13.0 13 5 5 1 6 10 6.92 1.46 3.46
A.J. Burnett 5 5 2 1 0 0 31.2 33 13 15 4 6 31 8.81 1.23 3.69
Brian Tallet 14 0 2 0 0 2 23.0 13 10 10 1 14 16 6.26 1.17 3.91
Casey Janssen 9 9 3 5 0 0 49.1 49 23 26 5 13 21 3.83 1.26 4.20
Vinnie Chulk 14 0 1 0 0 0 15.0 17 7 7 1 3 10 6.00 1.33 4.20
Scott Downs 22 2 3 1 0 0 29.2 29 14 16 4 9 24 7.28 1.28 4.25
Scott Schoeneweis 31 0 1 1 1 10 21.0 22 10 10 2 4 10 4.29 1.24 4.29
Jason Frasor 21 0 1 1 0 4 22.0 28 11 11 5 8 23 9.41 1.64 4.50
Ty Taubenheim 6 3 0 2 0 0 15.0 18 8 9 1 8 14 8.40 1.73 4.80
Pete Walker 12 0 0 1 1 2 16.0 17 9 10 3 6 18 10.13 1.44 5.06
Gustavo Chacin 7 7 5 0 0 0 36.0 38 22 22 7 15 17 4.25 1.47 5.50
Francisco Rosario 7 0 1 0 0 0 9.1 9 6 6 2 7 9 8.68 1.71 5.79
Brandon League 5 0 0 0 0 2 4.1 6 3 3 2 0 3 6.23 1.38 6.23
Dustin McGowan 3 0 0 0 0 1 2.2 5 2 3 0 3 3 10.13 3.00 6.75
Josh Towers 5 5 0 4 0 0 20.0 35 21 22 7 5 11 4.95 2.00 9.45
Jeremy Accardo 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 4 2 2 0 0 0 0.00 6.00 27.00
TOTAL 56 56 35 21 13 33 518.0 506 235 249 70 167 398 6.92 1.30 4.08
AWAY G GS W L Sv Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERAI told Liam I was looking into the team's splits to try to figure out why they were so bad on the road. He said "The bullpen?" I said I was still crunching the numbers.
Jeremy Accardo 4 0 0 0 0 0 6.0 4 0 0 0 2 3 4.50 1.00 0.00
B.J. Ryan 22 0 0 1 14 1 21.2 14 5 5 1 10 18 7.48 1.11 2.08
Brandon League 5 0 0 0 0 1 7.2 7 2 3 0 2 6 7.04 1.17 2.35
Justin Speier 22 0 0 0 0 9 16.2 18 5 6 1 11 18 9.72 1.74 2.70
Roy Halladay 11 11 6 1 0 0 75.2 75 24 27 3 13 44 5.23 1.16 2.85
Francisco Rosario 8 0 0 1 0 1 10.1 7 5 5 1 7 9 7.84 1.35 4.35
Ty Taubenheim 6 4 1 3 0 0 20.0 22 11 13 4 10 12 5.40 1.60 4.95
Scott Downs 20 1 2 0 0 1 22.1 22 13 14 3 16 18 7.25 1.70 5.24
Ted Lilly 10 10 3 6 0 0 54.1 64 32 35 8 20 47 7.79 1.55 5.30
Pete Walker 11 0 1 0 0 1 14.0 20 9 14 2 7 9 5.79 1.93 5.79
Gustavo Chacin 3 3 1 2 0 0 15.1 16 10 11 6 8 11 6.46 1.57 5.87
Casey Janssen 10 8 3 5 0 0 44.2 54 30 32 7 8 23 4.63 1.39 6.04
A.J. Burnett 5 5 0 4 0 0 26.0 34 18 22 5 5 22 7.62 1.50 6.23
Jason Frasor 12 0 1 0 0 5 11.0 7 8 8 1 6 11 9.00 1.18 6.55
Brian Tallet 14 0 1 0 0 0 12.0 17 9 9 3 10 9 6.75 2.25 6.75
Vinnie Chulk 6 0 0 0 0 1 9.0 12 7 9 3 2 8 8.00 1.56 7.00
Shaun Marcum 6 2 0 1 0 0 14.0 18 11 11 2 10 16 10.29 2.00 7.07
Josh Towers 7 7 1 5 0 0 34.1 51 34 35 9 10 18 4.72 1.78 8.91
Scott Schoeneweis 19 0 1 0 0 7 13.1 15 14 14 1 9 7 4.73 1.80 9.45
Dustin McGowan 4 1 1 1 0 0 7.1 10 10 10 1 9 8 9.82 2.59 12.27
TOTAL 52 52 22 30 14 27 435.2 487 257 283 61 175 317 6.55 1.52 5.31
Having crunched them... pretty much the entire staff, with the exceptions of Halladay and Speier, have suffered when leaving the RC. The bullpen has been indeed a problem. Away from home, Downs, Schoeneweis, Frasor, Tallet, have all been terrible. BJ Ryan has been good on the road, and sensational at home. Justin Speier has actually been a little better on the road, and naturally he's pitched significantly more innings at home.
As for the starters... Doc has pitched a little better on the road than at home. That's not a huge surprise - moving from the turf to real grass is not going to hurt a groundball machine who throws strike. Ted Lilly and Casey Janssen have been much. much better at home, as has AJ Burnett in his limited action.
The overall problem? Walks and hits. Well, duh. The staff is giving up home runs at about the same rate at home and on the road - it's the base hits that are killing them. The opposition is hitting .281 in their own parks, and .254 in the RC. The staff is issuing 3.6 BB/ 9 on the road, and 2.9 BB/9 at home.