Yes, I was away - I was Moving. I could bitch and moan about the whole dreary process of Moving all day long if you like, but you probably wouldn't like, and why should you? So let's get cracking, shall we?
There are 25 men who have more than 3000 hits, and a 26th, Roberto Clemente, with exactly 3000. Naturally, some of the players we are watching today will carve out their own spots on this list. Everyone with 3000 hits is in the Hall of Fame, unless they're actually ineligible. That standard seems unlikely to change - 3000 hits will continue to mean automatic induction.
The Top 25 coming into this season:
You will notice that 200 hit seasons are not nearly as common as 100 RBI or 100 run seasons. Five of the Top 25 never had that many hits in a season, and five more only reached that level once. The greatest offensive players tend to: a) hit in the middle of the lineup, and don't make quite as many plate appearances; b) draw a good many bases on balls. Of the ten men with the most walks in major league history - a list which includes Henderson and Yastrzemski from the 3000 hit club, as well as Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Mickey Mantle - only one of them ever had 200 hits in a season. Fella named Ruth, did it three times.
As usual I've picked 25 active players whose chances seem worthy of consideration. They need to have played at least 400 games before I'll even think about them. In order of career hits to date, they are: Craig Biggio, Gary Sheffield, Ken Griffey, Derek Jeter, Garret Anderson, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Johnny Damon, Shawn Green, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera.
We'll see where everybody stands at their current age, and see if we can figure out who's going to Cooperstown this way, and who needs to find another route. We'll see how their progress matches that of the men who constitute the current Top 25. At a minimum, all 25 active players are ahead of the pace established by Cap Anson - if you're not ahead of Anson, you have no chance whatsoever. Anson, of course, is a special case. He played shortened seasons (less than 100 games) in the early days of the National League - but he kept playing as long as knuckleballers do, and eventually piled up enough hits to stand 7th all time (assuming his given hit total is reasonably accurate.)
The two active players who have been posting the most impressive single season hit totals in recent years are Ichiro Suzuki and Michael Young. Once again, they have the most hits in the majors so far this season - Young has three straight 200 hit seasons, while Suzuki has had at least 206 hits in each of his five major league seasons. Unfortunately, both men took too long to get started. Young was 24 years old when he got his first hit - Suzuki started his major league career even later than Young, at age 27. They're behind the pace established by everyone on the Top 25, even the players who only made it thanks to a powerful finishing kick or by playing long past the time we were all tired of them. They're even behind Cap Anson. So, essentially, both Young and Suzuki have to average 200 hits a year for the next ten seasons or so, until they turn 40. Which no one has ever done.
One wonders where Suzuki would stand if he had come to the major leagues earlier. He played seven full seasons in Japan (and parts of two others as a teenager.) His best Japanese seasons were his first and last full seasons (age 20 and age 26) - he hit better than .380 both years, and never batted below .342 in his Japanese career. This seems to me a powerful suggestion that Suzuki was ready to be a quality major league regular at age 20, which by itself is impressive as all hell. He had just one 200 hit season in Japan - when he was 20, he rapped out 210 hits while batting .385 - however, the shorter schedule also means he never played more than 135 games in a season. The most at bats he had in a Japanese season was 546; the fewest he had in the AL was 647.
So... what the hell. Let's use Suzuki's Japanese hit totals, and just add 100 hitless at bats each season. What would we get?
That's not bad - remember, I've added 0-for-100 to each season - but, still, this seems to me to be a very, very conservative estimate of what Suzuki would have done had he come to North America at age 20. This level of performance would force us to discuss the great leap forward Suzuki made at age 27 - in his five Seattle seasons, Suzuki has averaged 226 hits and .332. In this scenario, he would be sitting with about 2400 career hits as we speak.
Only one man in history had more than 2400 hits by age 31. That was Ty Cobb, which turns out to be oddly appropriate. Suzuki doesn't seem very much like Cobb as a person, but as a player.... can you think of anyone whose game is more like that of the Georgia Peach?
Anyway, consider me completely sold on the idea of Suzuki as a Hall of Famer. In some ways, his situation is a litle bit like that of Lefty Grove in 1923, or Josh Gibson in 1933, or Joe DiMaggio in 1943 - he was a great player who was not in the major leagues for reasons that had nothing to do with the level of his play. Grove's situation is the closest parallel - it's hardly an exact parallel, of course, but there are similarities.
OK, let's look at the men who have a chance to get 3000 hits in the North American major leagues. Here are the contenders, with their current totals and where they rank among their age group. Note - this is not the entire age group, just this group of 50 players.
Alex Rodriguez (1901 through age 29, 2nd.) Who else? Rodriguez is always at the top of these lists. It gets boring. But he's such a great player, and he started so young. Only Ty Cobb (and Ichiro!) had more hits before turning 30.
Derek Jeter (1936 through age 31, 8th) - Jeter seems likely to finish quite high on the all-time list - he has a realistic chance to crack the Top 10, never mind the Top 25. He has been remarkably durable - the only injury that has cost him any significant playing time was the famous freak baseruning collision in 2003, and despite missing 43 games that year he still managed 156 hits. He has also been remarkably consistent. Jeter has never had a bad season - his idea of variety is to toss in the occasional truly outstanding season, something he is doing right now in 2006. He hits at the top of the lineup, so even though he draws lots of walks, he has enough at bats left over to rap out 190 hits every year. It is not at all impossible that by the time he's done, Jeter will have overtaken everyone ahead of him except Rose and Cobb. He could very well have 3500 hits by the time he turns 40. It would be an enormous surprise to me if he doesn't even make it to 3000.
Vladimir Guerrero (1526 through 29, 8th). Another great player who started piling up big numbers at an early age. I don't think he'll age quite as well as the next man on this list. One has mild concerns about his health going forward - he's had some back issues - but they would have to be pretty catastrophic to make him fall short. But still - he's hit better than .300 every season, he has a lifetime mark of .324, and already has five 190+ hit seasons. He can afford to fall off quite a bit. He's ahead of everyone in his age group except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Kaline, Musial and Speaker. He's also behind Rodriguez and Griffey, and it's Griffey's fate that he needs to avoid.
Albert Pujols (982 through age 25, 8th) - He just seems unstoppable, doesn't he? It's hard to believe he's only 25 - he doesn't look it, and he doesn't have a 25 year old's resume. He has three fewer hits than Stan Musial at the same age, which seems entirely just and fitting - fifteen years from now, we will probably be arguing over whether Pujols or Musial was the greatest Cardinal of them all. Albert should end up with more homers, and he could challenge The Man's hit total as well. He's ahead of everyone in his group but Cobb, Kaline, Yount, Aaron, and Musial; he's also behind Rodriguez and Griffey.
Carl Crawford (623 through age 23, 8th) - As I mentioned on another occasion, I was in the house when Carl Crawford made his major league debut. Right now, Fred McGriff is the greatest player whose ML debut I happened to attend, but the Tampa flash may one day make me reassess that judgement. He's already a hell of a player, his game is still growing in all kinds of directions, and he's just 23 years old. I am insanely enraptured with his future. As it is, he's behind only Cobb, Kaline, Yount, and Aaron in his age group - he's also behind three active players: Griffey, Rodriguez, and A.Jones.
Miguel Cabrera (459 through age 22, 8th) - He's so young, and he's so good - the sky, or very near, is still the limit. Maybe it's because he plays in the other league, and I haven't seen that much of him, but I find I have very little sense of how his career is going to unfold. It looks pretty good so far, and maybe he'll be the Manny Ramirez of the next decade - a fearsome power hitter, who hits for average and drives in runs. He's behind Cobb, Yount, Kaline, and Aaron in his age group, as well as Griffey, Rodriguez, and Beltre.
Andruw Jones (1408 through 28, 10th) - Jones is in great shape as he approaches his 30s, but he still seems like a longshot to me. Personally, I think he's much more likely to get 600 HRs than 3000 hits - I suspect his offensive skills, already somewhat narrow, will narrow even further as he goes forward. He's going to be a slugger-RBI man with unimpressive batting averages. As it is, he's only batted better than .280 once in his career, back when he was 23 years old, and that's the only time he had more than 165 hits in a season.His early start and excellent play has him behind only Cobb, Yount, Aaron, Kaline, Musial, and Speaker in his age group. He's also behind three active players - Rodriguez, Griffey, and Guerrero.
Adrian Beltre (1103 through age 26, 10th). In the year 2525, if man is still alive, I wager we will regard Adrian Beltre's 2004 season much the same way we now regard Norm Cash's 1961 season. An inexplicable fluke season turned in by a quality player - a season so mind-bogglingly good that it made it difficult to see the player's full career clearly. Cash was a hell of a player even without 1961, and Beltre's not chopped liver. He had an extra 50 hits in 2004, and even if we discount them, he'd still be in great shape for his age group. As it stands, he's ahead of everyone through age 26 but Cobb, Kaline, Yount, Aaron, Musial, and Speaker. (He's also behind Rodriguez, Griffey, and A.Jones) He has also spent his entire career working in pitcher's parks - a change of scenery might do him a lot of good. His real problem, however, is that he's probably not good enough to last long enough to make it to 3000, despite his early start. If 2004 was a fluke, which is what I believe, and he has returned to his normal level of play - his natural decline will have him out of the game by the time he turns 35.
Johnny Damon (1789 through age 31, 18th). I was surprised at how well Damon was doing when I looked at Runs Scored - but thus prepared, it lessens my surprise at the very good progress he has made on the way to 3000 hits. If Damon ends up with 1600 Runs Scored and 3000 hits, which he is well on the way to doing, he's a No-Doubt-About-It Hall of Famer. I just never really thought of him as that great a player while I was watching him. Well. That was my mistake. This guy is quite the baseball player. He's ahead of Brett, Henderson, Lajoie, Gwynn, Palmeiro, Brock, Boggs, Wagner, Winfield, Molitor, and Anson. He's doing OK.
Ken Griffey (2304 through age 35, 20th) - Griffey never had tremendous single season hit totals - his career best is 185 - but there is nothing quite so valuable in a counting stat as getting off to a quick start. Like Robin Yount, Griffey was playing regularly when he was a teenager, and like Al Kaline he was a star when he was 20 years old. Through age 30, Griffey was behind Yount and Kaline - he was also behind Cobb, Musial, and Aaron. But he was ahead of everyone else, and seemed as sure a bet to clear 3000 hits as one could imagine. Then came the injuries. Over the last five years, he has missed an awful lot of games, and lost a great deal of ground. He is still ahead of the pace set by Wagner, Molitor, Boggs, Winfield, Henderson, and Anson. He needs another five or six healthy seasons to finish the job. It's hard to imagine being healthier in his late 30s than he was in his early 30s, especialy if he stays in the NL. I don't really like his chances, and if he does make it, it'll be likely by the skin of his teeth.
Jimmy Rollins (904 through age 26, 21st) - I like Rollins a lot, and he does have some things going for him. He was playing regularly at age 22, he bats at the top of the lineup, and because he doesn't draw a lot of walks and never misses a game, he has an enormous number of at bats. He's had 190+ hits each of the last two seasons. But he's never hit .300, and what he's doing with the bat right now is probably the best that can be expected from him. In three years, he'll probably be down to 170 hits per season, and eventually he won't even be a leadoff hitter. For now, he's ahead of Mays, Rose, Molitor, Carew, Waner, Palmeiro, Winfield, Gwynn, Anson, Wagner, Brock, Boggs.
Hank Blalock (543 through age 24, 23rd) In his three full seasons, he's had exactly 170 hits twice, and 172 hits the other time. He'd need to improve on that, but his game does not seem to be developing - his batting average has declined each season, without any increase in power or plate discipline. He's still only 25, and he could still make a major step forward. He's going to need it. He is off to a very good start anyway - he's ahead of Mays, Molitor, Anson, Rose, Carew, Winfield, Waner, Palmeiro, Gwynn, Brock, and Wagner.
Craig Biggio (2795 through age 39, 24th) - Biggio is only ahead of the pace set by two players, Henderson and Anson, both of whom played into their mid-40s. Biggio is unlikely to do that. However, he is obviously a very good bet to make it to 3000 hits - he still playing regularly at the age of 39, and he's almost there already. When the 2006 season ends, he should have 2950 to 2960 hits, which pretty much guarantees that he'll return in 2007 to finish the job.
Gary Sheffield (2345 through age 36, 24th) - Sheffield is only ahead of Henderson and Anson - that, combined with his injury season this year, makes him an outside chance at best. He's falling behind Rickey Henderson, who was 42 when he got his 3000th hit. Like Henderson, Sheffield draws lots of walks - unlike him, he hits in the middle of the lineup. His normal hit total is around 160, which means he'll have to come back next season at age 38 and maintain his current level of production for another four seasons. It doesn't seem very likely.
Miguel Tejada (1370 through 29, 24th) - Tejada took a big leap forward in 2002, his MVP season, and has spent the last four years gaining on the field - he's been averaging 195 hits a season (along with the 30 HRs and 124 RBIs). How long can he keep this up? A long time, I think - his compact, athletic build should age fairly well. He never misses a game, of course, and like another Baltimore shortstop before him, it would probably be a good idea if he'd take a day off now and then - but all things considered, a guy who is available to play every day is greatly to be preferred over a guy who isn't. I don't think his resume will include 3000 hits when he's done, but his Hall of Fame case will probably be more than good enough without it. For now, he's ahead of Gwynn, Palmeiro, Winfield, Brock, Molitor, Wagner, Boggs, and Anson.
Garret Anderson (1929 through age 33, 25th) - He's ahead of Wagner, Molitor, and Anson. That alone is discouraging, and it gets worse. He is pretty obviously slipping. His power numbers went into decline two years ago, and while he's still maintaining a .300 average, he's been having trouble staying healthy - after playing 150 games eight straight seasons, he's missed about 100 games the last three years. He's very unlikely to make it to 3000.
Manny Ramirez (1922 through age 33, 27th) - Manny came into this season 7 hits behind Garret Anderson, which meant that he was only ahead of Molitor and Anson. Ramirez is exactly one month older than Anderson, and he's obviously a much better bet going forward. First of all, he's a much better hitter than... well, than practically everyone in the game and for that reason will be able to play pretty well as long if he wants. He's been pretty durable, especially since coming to Boston. He needs to stay in the lineup until he's 40 to make it to 3000, and he's certainly good enough to do that.
Carlos Beltran (1140 through 28, 27th) - Beltran is putting together one of the more unpredictable careers of today's outstanding players - it seems to have taken him some time to figure out what type of hitter he's going to be. He seems to settled on becoming a slugger. He had 194 hits as a 22 year old rookie in 1999 - that's his career best, and his single season totals over the last five years have been 189, 174, 160, 160, 155. He may lower the bar again this season, although he may also establish new career highs in homers, walks, RBIs and slugging while he's doing it. On the hit list, he's ahead of Winfield, Molitor, Brock, Wagner, Boggs, and Anson - but he's not a serious 3000 hit candidate, and his position will continue to decline. Next time, however, when we look at 500 HR candidates, Beltran will be the dark horse to keep an eye on..
Shawn Green (1726 through age 32, 31st). He's only ahead of Cap Anson in his age group, which means he has no chance whatsoever. Shawn was tracking another old Blue Jay, Dave Winfield, fairly closely for a while - he's about 30 hits behind Winfield at this point in his career. Winfield did miss almost an entire season in his mid-30s, but big Dave also aged extremely well - as all Blue Jays fans know, Winfield was the first 40 year to drive in 100 runs in a season (exactly as Bill James had predicted ten years earlier, by the way). I can't see Green lasting as long.
Chipper Jones (1811 through age 33, 32nd) - Chipper is also ahead of Cap Anson and no one else, which generally means no chance whatsoever. Injuries have played a role here - his 1994 knee injury probably cost him 100 hits, he missed more than 50 games last season, and he's hurting again this year.
Rafael Furcal (924 through age 27, 33rd) - Another Jimmy Rollins type of case - a guy who started young and hits at the top of the lineup. He doesn't get the huge numbers of at bats that Rollins does, however - even though they started at the same age, Furcal is well behind Rollins' pace. And I think Rollins is a long shot. Furcal is ahead of Molitor, Wagner, Brock, and Anson.
Todd Helton (1535 through age 31, 34th). He's a great hitter, but he got started a little late - his first full season was age 24. He's been going like hell trying to make up for it, but through age 31 the only guy he's ahead of is Cap Anson. And barring a torrid final two months, this season he looks to hit below .300 for the first time, and set a new career low in hits. These are not good indicators. Plus, he might leave change teams some day. Helton has been a great hitter period, but leaving Coors does seem unlikely to help him going forward.
Vernon Wells (748 through age 26, 37th) - So long as his 215 hits in 2003 looked like a random fluke, Wells could not be a contender. Through age 26 he was ahead of Anson, Wagner, Brock, and Boggs. But this season, he's making another run at 200 hits, which suggests that it may be an ability, and at any rate it will bump him up the list. I think he has no real chance, but he could fool us, I suppose.
Nomar Garciaparra (1395 through 31, 38th). Nomar has never really been a good candidate to make it to 3000, even before the injuries. The first problem was the slightly late start - he was 23 during his first year as a regular. Granted he had 209 hits as a rookie, which helped a fair bit. Still, after his remarkable first four seasons, in which he recorded better than 190 hits each time, he stood just 29th in his age group - he was ahead of Winfield, Palmeiro, Gwynn, Anson, Wagner, Boggs, and Brock. Then the injuries started. He lost almost all of 2001, which sent him plummetting behind everyone but Brock, Boggs, and Anson. He fought back with two very good seasons - 197 and 198 hits, overtaking Molitor and Wagner. Then the last two seasons sent him slipping back down the snakes, ahead of only Cap Anson. He can still certifiably hit, and he looks likely to rap out 180 hits this season. Which will leave him ahead of...Cap Anson.
Mark Teixeira (484 through age 25, 44th) His age 25 season - .301, 43 HRs, 194 hits - sure got my attention. He's very young, and he's ahead of Brock, Wagner, and Boggs in his age group. He seems more likely to post impressive slugging totals, however.
So - who will make it to 3000?
Craig Biggio, obviously.
It seems to me that the left side of the Yankees infield is pretty close to being a mortal lock as well. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter both collected their 2000th hit this season, and I think they may both clear 3500 career hits, and go right into the Top 10.
There are several other players whose chances I think bear special attention, a mix of sluggers and speedsters. The one I like best is one of the speedsters - Carl Crawford. He got started young, he's a tremendous player, he's still getting better, and he stays in the lineup. The other top of the order players whose chances look pretty good to me are Damon and Rollins. One of them will probably make it, and I think it'll be Johnny Damon.
The sluggers in best shape to get 3000 hits are Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Albert Pujols. Really, the only thing that could stop them would be injury, but then that is what stopped Albert Belle and Kirby Puckett, and it's what will probably stop Ken Griffey as well. Ramirez also went past 2000 hits this season - so did Garrett Anderson, now that I think of it, but Manny is a far greater hitter and has been doing a better job at staying in the lineup. While Ramirez is regarded as something of a flake, the truth is he is a very smart and very serious hitter. It's there if he wants it.
I think Guerreo and Pujols will make it as well. It's impossible to deny Pujols anything at this stage. I suppose the same should probably be said of Miguel Cabrera as well - I'm not sure what's stopping me, but something is stopping me. With Vlad, one worries about his health, but he should prevail.
Dark horse pick? Ichiro Suzuki.
There are 25 men who have more than 3000 hits, and a 26th, Roberto Clemente, with exactly 3000. Naturally, some of the players we are watching today will carve out their own spots on this list. Everyone with 3000 hits is in the Hall of Fame, unless they're actually ineligible. That standard seems unlikely to change - 3000 hits will continue to mean automatic induction.
The Top 25 coming into this season:
Best Number of Age During First Age During Last
Name Total Season 200 Hit Seasons 200 Hit Season 200 Hit Season
1. Pete Rose 4256 230 10 24 38
2. Ty Cobb 4189 248 9 20 37
3. Hank Aaron 3771 223 3 22 29
4. Stan Musial 3630 230 6 22 32
5. Tris Speaker 3514 222 4 24 35
6. Carl Yastrzemski 3419 191 0 -- --
7. Cap Anson 3418 187 0 -- --
8. Honus Wagner 3415 201 2 26 34
9. Paul Molitor 3319 225 4 25 39
10. Eddie Collins 3315 224 1 33 33
11. Willie Mays 3283 208 1 27 27
12. Eddie Murray 3255 186 0 -- --
13. Nap Lajoie 3242 232 4 26 35
14. Cal Ripken 3184 211 2 22 30
15. George Brett 3154 215 2 23 26
16. Paul Waner 3152 237 8 24 34
17. Robin Yount 3142 210 1 26 26
18. Tony Gwynn 3141 220 5 24 37
19. Dave Winfield 3110 193 0 -- --
20. Rickey Henderson 3055 179 0 -- --
21. Rod Carew 3053 239 4 27 31
22. Lou Brock 3023 206 4 25 32
23. Rafael Palmeiro 3020 203 1 26 26
24. Wade Boggs 3010 240 7 25 31
25. Al Kaline 3007 200 1 20 20
You will notice that 200 hit seasons are not nearly as common as 100 RBI or 100 run seasons. Five of the Top 25 never had that many hits in a season, and five more only reached that level once. The greatest offensive players tend to: a) hit in the middle of the lineup, and don't make quite as many plate appearances; b) draw a good many bases on balls. Of the ten men with the most walks in major league history - a list which includes Henderson and Yastrzemski from the 3000 hit club, as well as Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Mickey Mantle - only one of them ever had 200 hits in a season. Fella named Ruth, did it three times.
As usual I've picked 25 active players whose chances seem worthy of consideration. They need to have played at least 400 games before I'll even think about them. In order of career hits to date, they are: Craig Biggio, Gary Sheffield, Ken Griffey, Derek Jeter, Garret Anderson, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Johnny Damon, Shawn Green, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera.
We'll see where everybody stands at their current age, and see if we can figure out who's going to Cooperstown this way, and who needs to find another route. We'll see how their progress matches that of the men who constitute the current Top 25. At a minimum, all 25 active players are ahead of the pace established by Cap Anson - if you're not ahead of Anson, you have no chance whatsoever. Anson, of course, is a special case. He played shortened seasons (less than 100 games) in the early days of the National League - but he kept playing as long as knuckleballers do, and eventually piled up enough hits to stand 7th all time (assuming his given hit total is reasonably accurate.)
The two active players who have been posting the most impressive single season hit totals in recent years are Ichiro Suzuki and Michael Young. Once again, they have the most hits in the majors so far this season - Young has three straight 200 hit seasons, while Suzuki has had at least 206 hits in each of his five major league seasons. Unfortunately, both men took too long to get started. Young was 24 years old when he got his first hit - Suzuki started his major league career even later than Young, at age 27. They're behind the pace established by everyone on the Top 25, even the players who only made it thanks to a powerful finishing kick or by playing long past the time we were all tired of them. They're even behind Cap Anson. So, essentially, both Young and Suzuki have to average 200 hits a year for the next ten seasons or so, until they turn 40. Which no one has ever done.
One wonders where Suzuki would stand if he had come to the major leagues earlier. He played seven full seasons in Japan (and parts of two others as a teenager.) His best Japanese seasons were his first and last full seasons (age 20 and age 26) - he hit better than .380 both years, and never batted below .342 in his Japanese career. This seems to me a powerful suggestion that Suzuki was ready to be a quality major league regular at age 20, which by itself is impressive as all hell. He had just one 200 hit season in Japan - when he was 20, he rapped out 210 hits while batting .385 - however, the shorter schedule also means he never played more than 135 games in a season. The most at bats he had in a Japanese season was 546; the fewest he had in the AL was 647.
So... what the hell. Let's use Suzuki's Japanese hit totals, and just add 100 hitless at bats each season. What would we get?
Year Team League Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG
1994 Orix Jap Pac 20 130 646 111 210 41 5 13 54 29 51 53 .325
1995 Orix Jap Pac 21 130 624 104 179 23 4 25 80 49 68 52 .287
1996 Orix Jap Pac 22 130 642 104 193 24 4 16 84 35 56 52 .301
1997 Orix Jap Pac 23 135 636 94 185 31 4 17 91 39 62 36 .291
1998 Orix Jap Pac 24 135 606 79 181 36 3 13 71 11 43 35 .299
1999 Orix Jap Pac 25 103 511 80 141 27 2 21 68 12 45 46 .276
2000 Orix Jap Pac 26 105 495 73 153 22 1 12 74 21 54 36 .309
TOTAL 938 4160 645 1242 204 23 117 522 196 374 306 .299
That's not bad - remember, I've added 0-for-100 to each season - but, still, this seems to me to be a very, very conservative estimate of what Suzuki would have done had he come to North America at age 20. This level of performance would force us to discuss the great leap forward Suzuki made at age 27 - in his five Seattle seasons, Suzuki has averaged 226 hits and .332. In this scenario, he would be sitting with about 2400 career hits as we speak.
Only one man in history had more than 2400 hits by age 31. That was Ty Cobb, which turns out to be oddly appropriate. Suzuki doesn't seem very much like Cobb as a person, but as a player.... can you think of anyone whose game is more like that of the Georgia Peach?
Anyway, consider me completely sold on the idea of Suzuki as a Hall of Famer. In some ways, his situation is a litle bit like that of Lefty Grove in 1923, or Josh Gibson in 1933, or Joe DiMaggio in 1943 - he was a great player who was not in the major leagues for reasons that had nothing to do with the level of his play. Grove's situation is the closest parallel - it's hardly an exact parallel, of course, but there are similarities.
OK, let's look at the men who have a chance to get 3000 hits in the North American major leagues. Here are the contenders, with their current totals and where they rank among their age group. Note - this is not the entire age group, just this group of 50 players.
Alex Rodriguez (1901 through age 29, 2nd.) Who else? Rodriguez is always at the top of these lists. It gets boring. But he's such a great player, and he started so young. Only Ty Cobb (and Ichiro!) had more hits before turning 30.
Derek Jeter (1936 through age 31, 8th) - Jeter seems likely to finish quite high on the all-time list - he has a realistic chance to crack the Top 10, never mind the Top 25. He has been remarkably durable - the only injury that has cost him any significant playing time was the famous freak baseruning collision in 2003, and despite missing 43 games that year he still managed 156 hits. He has also been remarkably consistent. Jeter has never had a bad season - his idea of variety is to toss in the occasional truly outstanding season, something he is doing right now in 2006. He hits at the top of the lineup, so even though he draws lots of walks, he has enough at bats left over to rap out 190 hits every year. It is not at all impossible that by the time he's done, Jeter will have overtaken everyone ahead of him except Rose and Cobb. He could very well have 3500 hits by the time he turns 40. It would be an enormous surprise to me if he doesn't even make it to 3000.
Vladimir Guerrero (1526 through 29, 8th). Another great player who started piling up big numbers at an early age. I don't think he'll age quite as well as the next man on this list. One has mild concerns about his health going forward - he's had some back issues - but they would have to be pretty catastrophic to make him fall short. But still - he's hit better than .300 every season, he has a lifetime mark of .324, and already has five 190+ hit seasons. He can afford to fall off quite a bit. He's ahead of everyone in his age group except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Kaline, Musial and Speaker. He's also behind Rodriguez and Griffey, and it's Griffey's fate that he needs to avoid.
Albert Pujols (982 through age 25, 8th) - He just seems unstoppable, doesn't he? It's hard to believe he's only 25 - he doesn't look it, and he doesn't have a 25 year old's resume. He has three fewer hits than Stan Musial at the same age, which seems entirely just and fitting - fifteen years from now, we will probably be arguing over whether Pujols or Musial was the greatest Cardinal of them all. Albert should end up with more homers, and he could challenge The Man's hit total as well. He's ahead of everyone in his group but Cobb, Kaline, Yount, Aaron, and Musial; he's also behind Rodriguez and Griffey.
Carl Crawford (623 through age 23, 8th) - As I mentioned on another occasion, I was in the house when Carl Crawford made his major league debut. Right now, Fred McGriff is the greatest player whose ML debut I happened to attend, but the Tampa flash may one day make me reassess that judgement. He's already a hell of a player, his game is still growing in all kinds of directions, and he's just 23 years old. I am insanely enraptured with his future. As it is, he's behind only Cobb, Kaline, Yount, and Aaron in his age group - he's also behind three active players: Griffey, Rodriguez, and A.Jones.
Miguel Cabrera (459 through age 22, 8th) - He's so young, and he's so good - the sky, or very near, is still the limit. Maybe it's because he plays in the other league, and I haven't seen that much of him, but I find I have very little sense of how his career is going to unfold. It looks pretty good so far, and maybe he'll be the Manny Ramirez of the next decade - a fearsome power hitter, who hits for average and drives in runs. He's behind Cobb, Yount, Kaline, and Aaron in his age group, as well as Griffey, Rodriguez, and Beltre.
Andruw Jones (1408 through 28, 10th) - Jones is in great shape as he approaches his 30s, but he still seems like a longshot to me. Personally, I think he's much more likely to get 600 HRs than 3000 hits - I suspect his offensive skills, already somewhat narrow, will narrow even further as he goes forward. He's going to be a slugger-RBI man with unimpressive batting averages. As it is, he's only batted better than .280 once in his career, back when he was 23 years old, and that's the only time he had more than 165 hits in a season.His early start and excellent play has him behind only Cobb, Yount, Aaron, Kaline, Musial, and Speaker in his age group. He's also behind three active players - Rodriguez, Griffey, and Guerrero.
Adrian Beltre (1103 through age 26, 10th). In the year 2525, if man is still alive, I wager we will regard Adrian Beltre's 2004 season much the same way we now regard Norm Cash's 1961 season. An inexplicable fluke season turned in by a quality player - a season so mind-bogglingly good that it made it difficult to see the player's full career clearly. Cash was a hell of a player even without 1961, and Beltre's not chopped liver. He had an extra 50 hits in 2004, and even if we discount them, he'd still be in great shape for his age group. As it stands, he's ahead of everyone through age 26 but Cobb, Kaline, Yount, Aaron, Musial, and Speaker. (He's also behind Rodriguez, Griffey, and A.Jones) He has also spent his entire career working in pitcher's parks - a change of scenery might do him a lot of good. His real problem, however, is that he's probably not good enough to last long enough to make it to 3000, despite his early start. If 2004 was a fluke, which is what I believe, and he has returned to his normal level of play - his natural decline will have him out of the game by the time he turns 35.
Johnny Damon (1789 through age 31, 18th). I was surprised at how well Damon was doing when I looked at Runs Scored - but thus prepared, it lessens my surprise at the very good progress he has made on the way to 3000 hits. If Damon ends up with 1600 Runs Scored and 3000 hits, which he is well on the way to doing, he's a No-Doubt-About-It Hall of Famer. I just never really thought of him as that great a player while I was watching him. Well. That was my mistake. This guy is quite the baseball player. He's ahead of Brett, Henderson, Lajoie, Gwynn, Palmeiro, Brock, Boggs, Wagner, Winfield, Molitor, and Anson. He's doing OK.
Ken Griffey (2304 through age 35, 20th) - Griffey never had tremendous single season hit totals - his career best is 185 - but there is nothing quite so valuable in a counting stat as getting off to a quick start. Like Robin Yount, Griffey was playing regularly when he was a teenager, and like Al Kaline he was a star when he was 20 years old. Through age 30, Griffey was behind Yount and Kaline - he was also behind Cobb, Musial, and Aaron. But he was ahead of everyone else, and seemed as sure a bet to clear 3000 hits as one could imagine. Then came the injuries. Over the last five years, he has missed an awful lot of games, and lost a great deal of ground. He is still ahead of the pace set by Wagner, Molitor, Boggs, Winfield, Henderson, and Anson. He needs another five or six healthy seasons to finish the job. It's hard to imagine being healthier in his late 30s than he was in his early 30s, especialy if he stays in the NL. I don't really like his chances, and if he does make it, it'll be likely by the skin of his teeth.
Jimmy Rollins (904 through age 26, 21st) - I like Rollins a lot, and he does have some things going for him. He was playing regularly at age 22, he bats at the top of the lineup, and because he doesn't draw a lot of walks and never misses a game, he has an enormous number of at bats. He's had 190+ hits each of the last two seasons. But he's never hit .300, and what he's doing with the bat right now is probably the best that can be expected from him. In three years, he'll probably be down to 170 hits per season, and eventually he won't even be a leadoff hitter. For now, he's ahead of Mays, Rose, Molitor, Carew, Waner, Palmeiro, Winfield, Gwynn, Anson, Wagner, Brock, Boggs.
Hank Blalock (543 through age 24, 23rd) In his three full seasons, he's had exactly 170 hits twice, and 172 hits the other time. He'd need to improve on that, but his game does not seem to be developing - his batting average has declined each season, without any increase in power or plate discipline. He's still only 25, and he could still make a major step forward. He's going to need it. He is off to a very good start anyway - he's ahead of Mays, Molitor, Anson, Rose, Carew, Winfield, Waner, Palmeiro, Gwynn, Brock, and Wagner.
Craig Biggio (2795 through age 39, 24th) - Biggio is only ahead of the pace set by two players, Henderson and Anson, both of whom played into their mid-40s. Biggio is unlikely to do that. However, he is obviously a very good bet to make it to 3000 hits - he still playing regularly at the age of 39, and he's almost there already. When the 2006 season ends, he should have 2950 to 2960 hits, which pretty much guarantees that he'll return in 2007 to finish the job.
Gary Sheffield (2345 through age 36, 24th) - Sheffield is only ahead of Henderson and Anson - that, combined with his injury season this year, makes him an outside chance at best. He's falling behind Rickey Henderson, who was 42 when he got his 3000th hit. Like Henderson, Sheffield draws lots of walks - unlike him, he hits in the middle of the lineup. His normal hit total is around 160, which means he'll have to come back next season at age 38 and maintain his current level of production for another four seasons. It doesn't seem very likely.
Miguel Tejada (1370 through 29, 24th) - Tejada took a big leap forward in 2002, his MVP season, and has spent the last four years gaining on the field - he's been averaging 195 hits a season (along with the 30 HRs and 124 RBIs). How long can he keep this up? A long time, I think - his compact, athletic build should age fairly well. He never misses a game, of course, and like another Baltimore shortstop before him, it would probably be a good idea if he'd take a day off now and then - but all things considered, a guy who is available to play every day is greatly to be preferred over a guy who isn't. I don't think his resume will include 3000 hits when he's done, but his Hall of Fame case will probably be more than good enough without it. For now, he's ahead of Gwynn, Palmeiro, Winfield, Brock, Molitor, Wagner, Boggs, and Anson.
Garret Anderson (1929 through age 33, 25th) - He's ahead of Wagner, Molitor, and Anson. That alone is discouraging, and it gets worse. He is pretty obviously slipping. His power numbers went into decline two years ago, and while he's still maintaining a .300 average, he's been having trouble staying healthy - after playing 150 games eight straight seasons, he's missed about 100 games the last three years. He's very unlikely to make it to 3000.
Manny Ramirez (1922 through age 33, 27th) - Manny came into this season 7 hits behind Garret Anderson, which meant that he was only ahead of Molitor and Anson. Ramirez is exactly one month older than Anderson, and he's obviously a much better bet going forward. First of all, he's a much better hitter than... well, than practically everyone in the game and for that reason will be able to play pretty well as long if he wants. He's been pretty durable, especially since coming to Boston. He needs to stay in the lineup until he's 40 to make it to 3000, and he's certainly good enough to do that.
Carlos Beltran (1140 through 28, 27th) - Beltran is putting together one of the more unpredictable careers of today's outstanding players - it seems to have taken him some time to figure out what type of hitter he's going to be. He seems to settled on becoming a slugger. He had 194 hits as a 22 year old rookie in 1999 - that's his career best, and his single season totals over the last five years have been 189, 174, 160, 160, 155. He may lower the bar again this season, although he may also establish new career highs in homers, walks, RBIs and slugging while he's doing it. On the hit list, he's ahead of Winfield, Molitor, Brock, Wagner, Boggs, and Anson - but he's not a serious 3000 hit candidate, and his position will continue to decline. Next time, however, when we look at 500 HR candidates, Beltran will be the dark horse to keep an eye on..
Shawn Green (1726 through age 32, 31st). He's only ahead of Cap Anson in his age group, which means he has no chance whatsoever. Shawn was tracking another old Blue Jay, Dave Winfield, fairly closely for a while - he's about 30 hits behind Winfield at this point in his career. Winfield did miss almost an entire season in his mid-30s, but big Dave also aged extremely well - as all Blue Jays fans know, Winfield was the first 40 year to drive in 100 runs in a season (exactly as Bill James had predicted ten years earlier, by the way). I can't see Green lasting as long.
Chipper Jones (1811 through age 33, 32nd) - Chipper is also ahead of Cap Anson and no one else, which generally means no chance whatsoever. Injuries have played a role here - his 1994 knee injury probably cost him 100 hits, he missed more than 50 games last season, and he's hurting again this year.
Rafael Furcal (924 through age 27, 33rd) - Another Jimmy Rollins type of case - a guy who started young and hits at the top of the lineup. He doesn't get the huge numbers of at bats that Rollins does, however - even though they started at the same age, Furcal is well behind Rollins' pace. And I think Rollins is a long shot. Furcal is ahead of Molitor, Wagner, Brock, and Anson.
Todd Helton (1535 through age 31, 34th). He's a great hitter, but he got started a little late - his first full season was age 24. He's been going like hell trying to make up for it, but through age 31 the only guy he's ahead of is Cap Anson. And barring a torrid final two months, this season he looks to hit below .300 for the first time, and set a new career low in hits. These are not good indicators. Plus, he might leave change teams some day. Helton has been a great hitter period, but leaving Coors does seem unlikely to help him going forward.
Vernon Wells (748 through age 26, 37th) - So long as his 215 hits in 2003 looked like a random fluke, Wells could not be a contender. Through age 26 he was ahead of Anson, Wagner, Brock, and Boggs. But this season, he's making another run at 200 hits, which suggests that it may be an ability, and at any rate it will bump him up the list. I think he has no real chance, but he could fool us, I suppose.
Nomar Garciaparra (1395 through 31, 38th). Nomar has never really been a good candidate to make it to 3000, even before the injuries. The first problem was the slightly late start - he was 23 during his first year as a regular. Granted he had 209 hits as a rookie, which helped a fair bit. Still, after his remarkable first four seasons, in which he recorded better than 190 hits each time, he stood just 29th in his age group - he was ahead of Winfield, Palmeiro, Gwynn, Anson, Wagner, Boggs, and Brock. Then the injuries started. He lost almost all of 2001, which sent him plummetting behind everyone but Brock, Boggs, and Anson. He fought back with two very good seasons - 197 and 198 hits, overtaking Molitor and Wagner. Then the last two seasons sent him slipping back down the snakes, ahead of only Cap Anson. He can still certifiably hit, and he looks likely to rap out 180 hits this season. Which will leave him ahead of...Cap Anson.
Mark Teixeira (484 through age 25, 44th) His age 25 season - .301, 43 HRs, 194 hits - sure got my attention. He's very young, and he's ahead of Brock, Wagner, and Boggs in his age group. He seems more likely to post impressive slugging totals, however.
So - who will make it to 3000?
Craig Biggio, obviously.
It seems to me that the left side of the Yankees infield is pretty close to being a mortal lock as well. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter both collected their 2000th hit this season, and I think they may both clear 3500 career hits, and go right into the Top 10.
There are several other players whose chances I think bear special attention, a mix of sluggers and speedsters. The one I like best is one of the speedsters - Carl Crawford. He got started young, he's a tremendous player, he's still getting better, and he stays in the lineup. The other top of the order players whose chances look pretty good to me are Damon and Rollins. One of them will probably make it, and I think it'll be Johnny Damon.
The sluggers in best shape to get 3000 hits are Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Albert Pujols. Really, the only thing that could stop them would be injury, but then that is what stopped Albert Belle and Kirby Puckett, and it's what will probably stop Ken Griffey as well. Ramirez also went past 2000 hits this season - so did Garrett Anderson, now that I think of it, but Manny is a far greater hitter and has been doing a better job at staying in the lineup. While Ramirez is regarded as something of a flake, the truth is he is a very smart and very serious hitter. It's there if he wants it.
I think Guerreo and Pujols will make it as well. It's impossible to deny Pujols anything at this stage. I suppose the same should probably be said of Miguel Cabrera as well - I'm not sure what's stopping me, but something is stopping me. With Vlad, one worries about his health, but he should prevail.
Dark horse pick? Ichiro Suzuki.
