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Once again, here's Alex Obal to tell us about This Day In Baseball:

On paper, Ted Lilly against Chien-Ming Wang looked like the most intriguing pitching matchup of the weekend, and it didn’t disappoint.


The #3 starters locked horns for six tense innings before 50,000+ at the RC. Lilly struck out eight and the Jays held a 4-3 lead after six, but the Yankees rallied for two runs in the top of the seventh against the Toronto bullpen, and the dreaded Proctor-Farnsworth-Rivera troika was particularly dominant in nailing down the 5-4 lead. New York is off the schneid.

Boxscore: See ya.

Star of the Game: Guess who. Derek Jeter’s intangible fingerprints were all over this game. He drew a clutch two-out bases-loaded walk against Justin Speier in the seventh that chased home Melky Cabrera with the winning run. He was 2-for-3, including a timely single in the sixth that advanced Johnny Damon to third, whence he would score on a balk. Jeter was also in Gold Glove form in the field, recording six putouts with nary an error nor even a hopeless stab at a slow roller to allow us to bust out the time-honored “Past a diving / Derek Jeter” chant.

For the Jays: Frank Catalanotto was 3-for-4. He singled in the first, singled and scored on Lyle Overbay’s near homer in the fifth, and smacked a double of his own off the top of the wall in the seventh against Scott Proctor. That missed homerdom by about a foot. It was the only hit the Jays mustered against the Yankee bullpen.

Unsung Hero: Eric Hinske smacked a solo homer in the fourth and blasted a foul liner off Farnsworth in the eighth that may or may not have been close to the foul pole but landed in a skybox. From row 25 in section 513, I saw very little of it, but it sure looked promising off the bat. Hinske was also steady in the field, manning third base for the still-a-bit-banged-up Troy Glaus.

Before today’s game, Hinske was .292/.375/.550 against righthanded pitchers in 120 at-bats; Gregg Zaun was .290/.361/.507 in 138; Bengie Molina was .253/.299/.358 in 162. It’s a small sample, but Hinske should probably start at least 75% of games against righty starters.

For the Yankees: The bullpen. Proctor, reaching 97 mph with ease on the RC gun, struck out the side around Cat’s double in the seventh. Farnsworth struck out the side around Hinske’s loud foul ball in the eighth, hitting 101 at least once. Rivera shut down the Jays in the ninth on 7 pitches.

Something’s clicking for Proctor this year: his strikeout rate has jumped to a healthy 8.71 per 9 IP. His walk rate is in the mid-3s as usual and his line drive rate is still hanging around 17%. Opponents are batting .235/.307/.412, all career lows. Brian Cashman sending a 37-year-old Robin Ventura to the Dodgers for Proctor and Bubba Crosby at the 2003 trade deadline looks pretty good right about now.

Inanimate Carbon Rod Watch: Joe Torre DH’d him, but Alex Rodriguez still managed to give his detractors plenty of ammunition, going 0-4 with the Golden Sombrero. After Jeter’s game-winning walk in the seventh, with the bases loaded and two out, A-Rod whiffed to end the rally. Jordan said it all in the TDIB yesterday: How bad has it gotten for Alex Rodriguez when I'm relieved to see him come to bat with the bases loaded?

Nick Green had an adventure in the field in A-Rod’s place, booting hot grounders from Overbay and Hill. Both were ruled hits. I doubt Green will see the field again today.

Hillenbrand/Chulk Watch: Shea Hillenbrand (wearing #8) singled in his first at-bat as a Giant. San Fran defeated the Padres, 4-3, behind six innings from Jason Schmidt. The Accardo-free Giant bullpen pitched three shutout innings. Chulk (#31) didn’t play.

Speaking of the Padres: Another reliever is off the market. The Pads flipped A-ball pitchers Fabian Jimenez and Joel Santo to the Cubs for Scott Williamson.

You Be the Manager: The biggest talking point from yesterday’s game was John Gibbons’ handling of the seventh inning.

With Lilly at 108 pitches and a one-run lead, Gibbons summoned Brandon League to face Bernie Williams (switch), Andy Phillips (right), Melky Cabrera (switch), and possibly Nick Green (right) and Johnny Damon (left). Jason Giambi was on the bench. At the start of the inning, Gibbons had Scott Downs loosening up in the bullpen.

League quickly got ahead 0-2 on Williams, but allowed a perfectly-placed ground ball up the middle for a leadoff single. He then got Phillips to pop up to first.

With Melky Cabrera at bat, Gibbons opted to bring in Scott Downs to turn him around. Defying his 2006 splits, Cabrera lined a single to right, and platoon edge be damned, Joe Torre didn’t hesitate to bat Giambi for Green. The Giambino lined a sharp double into the right-field corner to tie the game and put runners on second and third. At some point around here, Speier started throwing in the pen. I don’t remember when exactly.

Up next was Damon, a contact hitter. So platoon edge be damned, Gibbons had Downs intentionally walk Damon. Then he brought Speier in to face the righthanded Miguel Cairo with the bases loaded.

Speier fanned Cairo, but fell behind Jeter and ultimately coughed up the decisive bases-loaded walk. A-Rod struck out to end the rally.

We have several You Be the Manager Moments:

1. Why Scott Downs? Even if Melky does struggle against lefthanded pitching, certainly he should have more trouble with a guy who throws a 95-mph sinker than with a guy who doesn’t. For reasons nobody really understands, Downs is an effective groundball pitcher, but because of his lack of overpowering stuff I don’t think he should be allowed within a football field of such a high-leverage situation if Gibbons can help it. And of course, League is an even more extreme groundballer, so if the idea is to go for the double play why not leave him in?

The way I see it, bringing Downs in for League is at best a lateral move, and therefore unnecessary. Am I wrong?

2. Cheating and using 20/20 hindsight: If you’ve had Speier throwing all inning, do you bring him in to face Giambi with two runners on (platoon split be damned)?

Also with the benefit of hindsight, after Bernie’s leadoff single, do you have the guts to warm B.J. Ryan up in the pen, with the intention of keeping Giambi from ever pinch-hitting?

2a. This is a big hypothetical but bear with me: Suppose you do have Ryan loosen up. Phillips bats for himself and pops up, one out. Cabrera singles off either League or Downs. Torre calls your bluff: Giambi is announced as a pinch-hitter with runners on first and second and one out. Damon, another lefty, is on deck, and the big righty bats (Cairo, Jeter, A-Rod, Posada) will follow. Is it a good move to bring Ryan in with the intention of using him for 1.2 innings and having Speier or Accardo or someone else close the game out?

3. Walking the bases loaded? Walking Damon to load the bases looked like a brilliant move when Speier struck out Cairo on three pitches, but less brilliant when Jeter walked. Was loading the bases a good move?

While I think bringing Downs in was a poor decision, Gibbons’ decisions thereafter brought him within one pitch of getting away with it. I think you could do a lot worse than Gibbons did in the 7th, but I’m curious to hear how everyone thinks he could have done better. I would’ve simply left League in and trusted him to face Giambi if he got Cabrera, though I realize that is a risky strategy. Speier would handle any situation with two runners on base.
Today’s Matchup: Two days removed from Aruba Day, Shaun Marcum looks to kick start another winning streak against Sir Sidney Ponson. The Yankees are a -120 favorite.

Elsewhere:
1:00 Minnesota (Liriano) -170 at Cleveland (Westbrook)
1:00 Oakland (Loaiza) +140 at Detroit (Robertson)
1:00 Baltimore (Bedard) -105 at Tampa Bay (Kazmir)
2:00 Texas (Padilla) +125 at Chicago (Garland)
2:00 Anaheim (Jered Weaver) -200 at Kansas City (Duckworth)
4:00 Boston (Lester) -135 at Seattle (Washburn)

Pinch-Hit TDIB: Sunday, July 23 | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
groove - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#151311) #
Let me go backwards:
3) The intentional walk - I agree with this move. If I remember correctly,"The Book" dictates that with one out and runners on second and third is the best time to issue an intentional walk in terms of increasing your win expectancy.

2 & 1) Bringing in ryan in the 7th is a nice idea but not realistic. You have to keep him for the 8th/9th because we were in the lead and those are his innings.  All you have to do is look at how the Yankees handled their bullpen yesterday to see what we needed to do as well.  We should have a designated pitcher for each inning (7th, 8th, and 9th) when we have the lead, and this order should only change if/when someone runs into trouble. I don't see any excuse for putting Downs in this game period.  He is not one of their top 3 relievers, so he shouldn't have been pitching at all with a one run lead in an important divisional game.  I suspect that Accardo has been brought in to help us out in this respect and I hope this bullpen use will change. 

One more point - I was cursing at gibbons for not pinch hitting for McDonald in the 9th inning. I did realize afterwards that the bench wasn't exactly full of  Giambis, but it seemed like at that point Gibbons had thrown in the towel.  I don't see any excuse for letting our worst hitter take an at bat in the bottom of th 9th down 1 run.






Mike Green - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#151312) #
Curiously, Cabrera did better against lefties than righties in Columbus this year. I'd love to have his earlier L/R splits.  I would have left League in to face him. Personally, I don't see much difference between Scott Downs and anybody else on the roster (save for Ryan) vs. Giambi and Damon. Speier could do the job, but if you're going to go that way, bring him on at the beginning of the inning. 

Another way to play it (and probably better) is to bring in Speier in the 7th to face Williams, Phillips, Cabrera (and if necessary Giambi and Damon) then League to face Cairo, Jeter and A-Rod, followed by Ryan.  The problem with this approach is that I don't think Gibbons wants to put League in that situation. 



dan gordon - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#151313) #

In case anybody hasn't noticed, the Blue Jays are now 1 game closer to the Chicago White Sox than they are to Boston.  They may not have to finish first to make the post season.  Just a few weeks ago, there was a lot of talk that they'd have to win the division to make it.  Pass the Yanks and either colour Sox, and they're in.

Dave Till - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#151314) #
I think there was a certain amount of bad luck involved, plus the Yankees deserve some credit.

The single off League was a 6-hopper up the middle, and Cabrera went out of the strike zone to poke his hit to right field. Even Giambi's hit could have been an out, had it been a foot or so further away from the line.

And I credit Jeter with earning his bases-loaded walk.

Jim - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#151316) #
Passing the Yanks and White Sox will only help if Minnesota stops playing what seems like .800 baseball. 

I will admit that I was one that thought the Wild Card race was going to be sewn up by the two Central teams not that long ago.

ken_warren - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#151317) #
Pass the Yanks and either colour Sox, and they're in.

Not really.

It the Sox they pass are coloured "red" thay are in as division champs.  If the Sox they pass are coloured "white" the Minnesota Twins are the wildcard and the Jays will join the Yankees on the outside looking in.

I can't see any way for the Blue Jays to be the wildcard team if they don't pass Minnesota or Detroit, as well  as the White Sox.
AWeb - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#151319) #
It's easy to forget about the Twins, considering how much ground they've made up in the last month. The Jays are now behind 3 teams for the wild card, but the basic goal has to remain catching the Yankees for now. They definitely can't make the playoffs in third place. Within 2 games now (assuming the ninth inning goes well, if an epic collapse happens, I freely take all of the blame that might be otherwise put on the relievers and GIbbons). The Twins/Tigers/White Sox have a lot of games against one another left, so hopefully those games can work out well for the Jays. Which I guess would mean the Tigers rolling over both, and the Twins/Sox splitting.

In other news, Rios should, hopefully, be back this week. I hope he can come back near full strength, but that might be an unrealistic expectation to have. I think he should be brought back at less than fulltime in RF just to play it safe with his stamina; keep putting Hinske out there a few games a week, maybe when the groundballers are starting.

ken_warren - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#151321) #
 The Jays are now behind 3 teams for the wild card, but the basic goal has to remain catching the Yankees for now. They definitely can't make the playoffs in third place. Within 2 games now (assuming the ninth inning goes well, if an epic collapse happens, I freely take all of the blame that might be otherwise put on the relievers and GIbbons). The Twins/Tigers/White Sox have a lot of games against one another left, so hopefully those games can work out well for the Jays. Which I guess would mean the Tigers rolling over both, and the Twins/Sox splitting.


Some sobering thoughts - Jays play 20 of the next 26 and 33 of the next 48 on the road.  In other words only 15 home games before September 15th.

Jays' road record 20-22.....Yankees'  25-22, Red Sox' 27-24, and White Sox' 25-22.



Anders - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#151324) #
I hope the Jays work out something with regards to getting all four of their outfielders regular playing time. Wells, Cat and Reed have been playing non stop for the last week and a half, and all have been up to the task. I suspect Cat will DH a couple of more times once Rios gets back into the swing of things. Reed has 'proved' that he deserves to play full time, at least until he shows he needs a break.  I forsee a possible DH platoon of Cat/Hinske vs RHP and a combo of the catchers at DH and C vs. LHP. Hinske will get time at third and first as well, I would imagine.

While it may be a bit ironic, the Jays might actually get better production out of the DH spot without Shea. He played relatively poorly in June and July, and the aforementioned DH platoons will likely produce somewhat better numbers - The Dude and The Cat have been knocking the stuffing out of Righties all year, which Shea, who played more, has not. This comes with the obvious caveat of reduction of depth, but if the Jays lost either Glaus or Overbay for an extended period of time that would be close to game over anyway.

There's also a very outside shot the Jays will have 4 outfielders with 500 PA's, which I imagine probably happens somewhat infrequently. The three not in CF would need about 200-215 PA's each in 64 games. Just over 500 PA's are needed to qualify for top finishes in various catergories, so I hope that Reed and Cat make it - they've played very well under the radar.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#151326) #
I am very pleased with Marcum's outing.  5 innings, 92 pitches, 1 walk, a homer and 4 strikeouts against the Yankees with the dome closed and the humidity at 100% is just fine.  His next start is Friday night in Oakland, a much friendlier environment.  7 innings would be sweet. 

The rotation is in much better shape now than it was 2 months ago.  That should make things a lot easier for the pen.  With Rios coming back fairly soon, and Chacin to follow probably in August, everything's falling into place nicely.

rtcaino - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#151327) #
Question: When Chacin comes back, who is out of the rotation?

I say Janssen goes to AAA to start. He was rushed up and could use some time down there.

Marcum has considerably more AA/AAA experience, and I think more prepared for the majors.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#151329) #
Due to the length of time Chacin has been out of action, he might very well return to the bullpen, at least until September 1 when the rosters expand anyway.  These are very pleasant problems to have.
js_magloire - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#151331) #
I don't think these problems are that pleasant to have. I have confidence in Marcum, but Jansen his last while has been bad - even Josh Towers bad. He really needs to pick it up because we can't have a Josh Towers part 2. I'm hoping that Chacin can be a serviceable starter, and that Jansen goes, leaving Marcum in. Then we don't have to waste talent on a new SP.

Hopefully Accardo is better than his first outing today. He lets up a lot of singles.

The bullpen could be better than it is now. With Frasor, and only Tallet, whom I like for 1 inning. I don't really like Scot Downs, especially in high leverage situations. I thought that was a mistake. Giambi hits lefties pretty well, doesn't he? I'm not sure what to do with Taubenheim or Jansen once, if, he's out of the rotation, but hopefully Riccardi puts together the best bullpen he can muster because that seems to be the week link right now (especially since theres been at least 4 quality starts in a row, probably more).

PS: I've been looking at the White Sox, hoping that they would be the ones to fall (of course there's still the Yankees and Minesota), and the White Sox aren't THAT good. They have Konerko and THome who are amazing. And then Joe Crede and Jermaine DYe who are basically hitting the ball extremely well, but possibly playing over their heads. (???) Perhaps they could cool off. And the pitching is good, but who knows, things can implode.
ken_warren - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#151332) #
Question: When Chacin comes back, who is out of the rotation?

Chacin has been brutal this year.....51 IP, 23 BB, 28 K, 13 HR, xERA 6.83.  I'm sure the Jays' braintrust won't be influenced by a 6-2 win-loss record.

No way he should be going into the rotation until he shows that he is one of the Jays' best five starters.  As bad as Janssen has been lately, he still looks better than Chacin.  And Marcum deserves to be left in the rotation to see if he for real or not.
VBF - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#151335) #

No way he should be going into the rotation until he shows that he is one of the Jays' best five starters. 

I'm assuming that you're promoting the idea of putting him in the bullpen, since that's the next  logical (albeit minimally) move possible. Why? What could possibly be gained from that?

 

 

jjdynomite - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#151337) #
To be fair, Chacin's numbers were earned against: Minny, BoSox, Yankees, Os, Yankees, Angels, Oakland (first DL trip), BoSox, Rays, Tigers (2nd DL trip).

So all the teams he'd faced are contenders except the Rays and Os, and the Beasts of the Easts both twice.  I think he has proven through late 2004 and 2005 to be a winner and I would certainly slot him in instead of Janssen or Marcum, as the Jays could use more experienced guys in the rotation as they push for the post season.

I just don't see him having a Towers-like meltdown; he will channel Laurence "Morpheus" Fishburne to rise above the matrix of American League batters.  And he hasn't had the opportunity to wear his cologne during in-game action yet.
ken_warren - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#151338) #
To be fair, Chacin's numbers were earned against: Minny, BoSox, Yankees, Os, Yankees, Angels, Oakland (first DL trip), BoSox, Rays, Tigers (2nd DL trip).

So all the teams he'd faced are contenders except the Rays and Os, and the Beasts of the Easts both twice.  I think he has proven through late 2004 and 2005 to be a winner and I would certainly slot him in instead of Janssen or Marcum, as the Jays could use more experienced guys in the rotation as they push for the post season.

I think we're a little guilty of looking at Chacin through rose coloured glasses because of his rather lucky 3.72 ERA in 2005.  Hear are some pre-season comments regarding Chacin's 2006 outlook.

From Baseball Prospectus:

"Chacin's improvement over the past two seasons is being attributed to the addition of a particularly sharp cut fastball.  The most awkward looking delivery this side of late night Comedy Central stand-up didn't hurt, either.  Still, that kind of shtick doesn't usually work more than once, leading to speculation that Chacin may struggle in his sophomore season.  His peripherals have always been middling at best."

From Baseball HQ:

All the signs point to a good sell high candidate.  His dominance and command suggest soft skills.  His HR to fly ball ratio suggest a HR bump.  His 50 IP workload increase to 203 IP at age 24 portends burnout risk.

His 2006 performance and subsequent injury suggest that these warnings were dead on.
Dave Till - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#151340) #
Some notes on the last couple of games:

- The Yankee hitters drive me crazy because they take so long to get ready to step into the box. Jeter still has that annoying little habit of raising his right arm as he's digging in - it looks like he's signaling to the umpire that he's not ready yet.

- Marcum seems to like to compete out there. As I've said before, his attitude recalls that of Pat Hentgen.

- John McDonald looks somewhat like a sad basset hound. At first glance, he doesn't look like the sort of guy who can cover oodles of ground in the middle infield.

- By my count, there were three fly balls that Bubba Crosby couldn't reach that Vernon Wells would have put into his back pocket. Fittingly, one of them was hit by Wells himself.

- Thanks to injuries, the Yankees aren't as intimidating as they often have been. Cabrera, Crosby, Phillips, and Nick Green aren't names that strike terror into the hearts of opponents. And Alex Rodriguez has suddenly stopped behaving like Alex Rodriguez, at least for a bit. The problem with the Yankees is that they can go out and buy somebody expensive to fill a hole (I keep fearing the arrival of Abreu in right field).

- While I was watching Aaron Hill playing second this weekend, it occurred to me: nobody mentions Orlando Hudson any more.

- Accardo has a slingshot motion to home plate, and reminds me a bit of a bigger and slightly faster version of Jason Frasor. I suspect he will have a learning curve to endure: the Rogers Centre is congenial to hitters, and the American League is also congenial to hitters. He's bringing it at 95, so you've got to figure he'll adjust.

- As the Jays kept hitting home runs today, I started wondering whether somebody was about to get plunked. I guess pitchers don't do that as much any more.

HippyGilmore - Sunday, July 23 2006 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#151342) #

- While I was watching Aaron Hill playing second this weekend, it occurred to me: nobody mentions Orlando Hudson any more.

Except Bob Elliot. Repeatedly. He also dropped Felipe Lopez and Cesar Izturis' names in his column today. Some people get over things, while other people are frothing geysers of vitriole.

A - Monday, July 24 2006 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#151343) #
I'm hoping someone will be able to fill in this gap for me: Just before Posada homered, Giambi doubled to right. How did the double unfold?

By the time I got to the box office, the best available tickets were row 26 in 514 (above the lights). Thus, I couldn't see a good portion of RF. But it looked like Jeter was expecting the ball to be caught. For obvious reasons there was no replay on the JumboTron (is it still called that?) and I haven't seen any replays on the various sportscasts.

Otherwise, I was very happy with the results from Marcum. Going in, I had this fear that he would try to bust the top of the Yankee order with inside 91MPH fastballs and get clobbered. But it seems he knows his stuff and trusts the defense enough to throw strikes that stay away from the sweet spot of the bat.

Particularly, though, I was impressed with the strikeout of Alex Rodriguez with runners on 2nd & 3rd. Sitting in the nose bleeds, I was actively adovcating an IBB. I know how bad A-Rod has been lately but why not put him on and work towards the inning-ending GDIP? Instead, Marcum kept his pitches off the plate, preventing Rodriguez from making solid contact and, in the end, A-Rod struck himself out. But key to Marcum's strikeout on the 3-2 pitch low and inside was the confidence that he could get Posada if Rodriguez didn't bite. Job very well done. And, for the record, I would probably maintain my position on the IBB if the same situation happened again tomorrow -- even if it were Doc on the mound.

js_magloire - Monday, July 24 2006 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#151344) #
Bounced right off the top of the wall, back into fair territory.
ayjackson - Monday, July 24 2006 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#151348) #

does anyone think the jays will trade for a pitcher over the next week?  word is McGowan is being heavily scouted - sounds like too much for an Armas type and too little for a Willis?  i have to think that Armas' performance today was enough to assure he's traded this week....as long as he isn't on the DL tomorrow.

 

Twilight - Monday, July 24 2006 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#151349) #
I know that 20/20 hindsight is cheating, but I too was completely perplexed when Gibbons went to Downs. Scott Downs is great as a spot starter and long reliever, but as others have said he is not the man you want in a high-leverage situation. Much less a 1-run lead against the Yankees, with runners on base.

If Gibbons was worried that League couldn't put a 0 on the board, he should have gone to Speier. He holds LHB to .191 and has overpowering stuff. Worst case scenario here, Speier throws the 7th, then starts the 8th with BJ ready just in case.

This illustrates the need for a good 7th inning guy. I am hoping Accardo can fill this role, and if not, maybe Frasor will be able to do so soon.

I definitely think Gibbons goofed going to Downs, but if Scott comes in, strikes out Giambi and sits down Cairo, we don't have this conversation.
Chuck - Monday, July 24 2006 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#151353) #
I definitely think Gibbons goofed going to Downs, but if Scott comes in, strikes out Giambi and sits down Cairo, we don't have this conversation.

No, I think we still do. The longest thread regarding Gibbons' reliever usage was in a game the Jays won against the Angels early in the season, when a dubious decision was successful but nonetheless hotly contested.
R Billie - Monday, July 24 2006 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#151400) #

There was a lot of bad luck in many of the Jays' recent blown saves.  But I think looking at numbers to determine matchups, unless there is overwhelming strikeout/homerun/etc evidence is ridiculous.  It's never done with Ryan...he stays in to close a game even when he's getting into trouble or a batter might have some success against him.

But if you're a pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning, woe betide if you have a "poor" ratio against a hitter coming up.  We're talking about splits that look like 5 for 11 or 2 for 15.  If a guy is 5 for 11 off your current reliever but he's 2 for 15 off the guy you have warming in the pen, you more than likely end up making a pitching change.

I don't think I even have to explain what's wrong with this line of reasoning.  Aaron Hill spent around 100 at bats in the first six weeks of the year hitting below the Mendoza line and is now hitting over .300.  So we're trying to glean meaningful numbers from a history of less than 20 at bats?

Speier had a very difficult situation but he and Molina also pitched like noobs.  A 2-1 slider to Jeter with 2 outs and the bases loaded?  Now ideally you don't throw your first two pitches well outside but since you did you can't afford to tip-toe delicately with the sacks full.  You have to be in full on attack mode and putting yourself in a 3 ball count is insane.  But then you throw him a full count slider too where missing means you put your team behind?  I don't get it.

It could have also been a situation where Speier should have started the inning so that there was a margin for error.  I don't think you can blindly assign a reliever to an inning.  A reliever should pitch to the game situation.  In a perfect world you have enough of a margin that you can hold Speier back and let other relievers potentially struggle through the 7th.  But with a 1 run lead, worry about holding the lead NOW and worry about later when later comes.  Maybe your team scores another run or two and you have an option to do something differently in the 8th.  But if you lose the lead NOW with the back of the Yankee pen warming up you have trouble.

Pinch-Hit TDIB: Sunday, July 23 | 25 comments | Create New Account
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