Is the NL/AL statistical exchange rate the same for relief pitchers? Most late-inning relievers are unlikely to face pitchers, which would seem to make their stats more comparable.

I'm glad JP got a decent return, and that he dealt Shea to the NL. Out of sight, out of mind.

I'm surprised, though, that Sabean was able to get Chulk thrown in. Chulk was quite good last year, and he's still relatively young and cheap.

A side benefit to this trade for the Giants is the possibility of a 1st-round pick if Shea leaves as a free agent after the season.

Chulk was probably going to be a 40 man casualty perhaps?

I really wanted us to get a starter instead of a reliever but this kid looks like he has good stuff.  This gives J.P. flexibility not only to add someone payroll wise but also to maybe trade free agent to be Speier.  I don't know if the Giants will offer Hillenbrand arbitration and I don't know if he'd accept but J.P. had to consider the fact that he was possibly trading a compensatory first round pick away when trading Hillenbrand so I'll trust him ;)

Does anyone else think we now have one of the best bullpen in the majors?  If this kid is for real, with him, B.j., Speier, Showy...looks pretty solid, now go get us a starter or SS..

I just checked out some Giants boards. People seem to be high on Accardo's potential; apparently they were grooming him to be their closer, and his high ERA is because he's been overworked recently. An upgrade in the bullpen and moving out Hillenbrand's entire salary? Good trade considering the lack of leverage. I wonder who's going to have the better career--projected closer Adam Peterson or projected closer Jeremy Accardo?

btw I agree that Chulk may have been a 40-man casualty...but does anyone else find it weird with what we've heard about Walker that he has not been transferred to the 60 man?  Anyone have any insight on this?

Accardo was only in A ball to start last year so he's come a long way fast.  Plus he hit .333 / .348 / .492 as a shortstop in college - maybe the Jays have solved their shortstop problem too (kidding).

I hope the Jays do hang on to Speier though; his control has steadily gotten better as the season progressed and just about back to last year's form.  Adding Accardo will shore up the over-worked pen and hopefully stop the revolving door of the pitchers going back and forth to Syracuse.  The Jays should only move Speier if the trade brought back a starter better than Chacin/Janssen/Marcum or Julio Lugo at short (you gotta love Johnny Mac's defense at short though).

The best part of this deal is that Shea's gone. We don't need that in the clubhouse right now. Look at the way that guys like Hinske, Cat, Reeder, and Zaunbie have accepted their roles...even blossomed in a platoon situation. I think we're far better off without Hillenbrand. I had a friend of mine tell me two years ago that we'd regret signing him...of course my buddy's a Sox fan so I told him to pound sand. Geez...I hate it when he's right.

Accardo's got upside and we get more money to make a deal.

Win/win.

Syracuse to San Francisco: it's been quite a week for Vinny. I foresee him getting a pad near Mission and settling in nicely.

 

Personally, I doubt that Accardo's a better pitcher than Chulk.  That is not an insult.  Here are Accardo's career statistics, and John Sickels' comments on him in June.  In comparing Accardo to Chulk, one must remember to take into account 2005 performance, as well as their ages and the significant difference in the leagues.

Their equivalence may be why San Francisco was willing to take on all of Hillenbrand's salary. 

Just looking in the Baseball Cube at Accardo's stats.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Jeremy-Accardo.shtml

He spent a fair amount of time in the minors last year, thus I suspect won't be a 'super two' player, thus freeing up salary for a couple of years.  IE: the Jays pay him whatever they want this year, next year, and the year after that (baring changes this winter in the basic agreement of course).  Chulk on the other hand would most likely reach arbitration a year earlier thus costing the Jays a lot more. 

But how does he play vs Chulk?  Well, he is 2 years ahead of Chulk in development as at 23 Accardo made the majors to stay while Chulk was still in AAA at that age.  Chulk in 2001 was above 9k/G in the low minors (Dunedin) and cracked 8 in 2004 in Syracuse over 29 IP.  His BB/G was above 3 in all but 2000 and 2001 (low minors).  Accardo on the other hand was below 3 BB/G throughout his career except over his 2 IP stint in San Jose (A) last year (1 BB in 2 IP).  Even in Spring Training when he should've been overwhelmed before this year he was effective (1.17 ERA, no runs allowed in his inning and 1/3 before this year).  Accardo last year didn't do so hot on the K/9 area (4.85) but that was comparable to Chulks only full year in the majors (2005 when he was 4.88). 

No question at all that Chulk for Accardo would be a big steal.  Given that no one but the Jays really wanted Shea a few years ago when he was pretty much the same as today except without a blow up with his manager (just his ex-GM) and Shea still had some defensive value as there is not much DH time in Arizona I'd say JP did good here.  If Accardo pitches like he should we just might be looking at Henke/Ward II which would make all of us very, very happy.

By the way, here are Shea's averages for June and July (AVG/OBP/SLG):

July: .244/.262/.390
June: .258/.323/.416

These numbers are not so good.

I enjoyed watching the Zaun interview yesterday. He has been quoted as saying that players shouldn't complain about reduced playing time but should, instead, concentrate on trying to help the team win. And, obviously, Zaun is not being hypocritical when he says this, as he's done it himself.

Personally, I doubt that Accardo's a better pitcher than Chulk.

I have to admit, without ever seeing Accardo pitch, I don't see how you are coming to this conclusion.  Accardo seems to be statistically superior.

These numbers are not so good.

That's probably why Gibbons was so eager to fight him -- Hillenbrand's swings would've missed.

It's really hard to know, Jim.  The NL discount this year is the subject of some debate, but many thoughtful people have it as huge.  The other tricky part is that for some reason there have always been a lot of strikeouts in Fresno, almost 7/game on average.  Sickels had Accardo as a C+ prospect before the season, and while it would undoubtedly be somewhat higher now, I don't place that much stock on 40 innings in the weaker league.

 Incidentally, his L/R splits are weird. Much better component stats against righties; much better ERA against lefties.  My guess is that like Chulk, he'll be effective in the long-run against right-handed hitters, but not so much against lefties.  Chulk was himself getting it up at 96 earlier this year.

Just a side question:

I was thinking about how the Jays bullpen is shaping up for next year.  Is there any disadvantage of having half of the bullpen comprised of hard throwing, right-handed fastball/slider pitchers?  (League, Rosario and now Accardo)

Will it be easier for hitters to get their timing down if they face the same style of pitchers over two or three innings?

That's probably why Gibbons was so eager to fight him -- Hillenbrand's swings would've missed.

And it wasn't likely he'd take a walk.

I don't place that much stock on 40 innings in the weaker league.

I agree that the NL is much weaker.  I still am basing my opinion by weighing the half year in SF this season pretty heavily.  Chulk had a nice ERA in Toronto, but his K/BB ratio and the number of home runs he gives up scare me a little bit. 

I checked out Accardo at BP and while he has a negative win expectation added for the season, when they adjust for the hitters he has actually faced it has a very large positive swing. 

I think it's clear that there is something about Chulk that the front office or Gibbons didn't like, so it didn't seem to me they were ever going to use him consistently anyway.

If you add Accardo's stats for last year and this year, he shows a much better ability to get lefties out.  He absolutely shuts them down.  Very unusual for a RHP.  His numbers against righties aren't bad, but not nearly as good.  I am very concerned that the Blue Jays are going to use him incorrectly.  The Giants recognized his backwards split, and were using him a lot against lefties.  In fact, 38% of the batters he has faced so far in 2005 + 2006 have been lefties.  With the way John Gibbons uses his bullpen, I fear that he will not use Accardo in this manner.  I can see Gibbons pulling Accardo when a lefty is coming up, thus negating his value.  On the table below, note particularly Accardo's batting average and slugging percentage allowed vs lefties.  If they use him correctly, I think this is a very nice acquisition, but I doubt that Gibbons will use him properly.

Here are Accardo's total MLB numbers for 2005 + 2006:

                                     AB             H                AVE                OBP                   SLG

vs LH                           100             19              .190                .280                   .212

vs RH                           166             45              .271                .300                   .386

I'm not going to come out and say JP fleeced Sabean because that's not the case.

It's a fair trade for both teams. The Jays need help in the bullpen and Accardo should be able to help in the short and long term. I know even before the incident with Gibby, Hillenbrand wasn't a favorite in Da Box. While I was frustrated that he refused to walk, Hillenbrand is still a solid hitter that is in his prime right now. The Jays benefitted from having him in the line-up. Even if the Giants don't keep him beyond this season, they will most likely recieve a draft pick.

Chulk also got dealt and I thought he wasn't given a fair shake by the Jays this season. He was sent down twice and the second demotion really puzzled me. He had performed much better once he returned from his first minor stint but Gibby said he wasn't hitting his spots. He clearly was watching a different Chulk than I was.

I've been puzzled with some of the moves the Jays brass have made this season. Sending down Frasor and Chulk for the second time are among them.

While I'm sure there won't be a farewell/share your favortie memories Hillenbrand and Chulk thread like there was for Hudson and Bush, I wish both of them the best of luck with the Giants.

One thing about this trade that just occured to me is what it has done to the budget.  I believe before hand the Jays had about one or two million of wiggle room.  With the Giants taking the rest of Hillenbrand's salary, that leaves roughly 3 million in the kitty to work with.  That could work out to a nice player rental if Ricciardi can find the right deal.

It's a good trade for Toronto, but not a steal. Accardo's stuff seems to be better than Chulk's -- mid-90s fastball, pretty decent slider, and the "Rivera" cutter, which is an unfair comparison to hang on the kid but does indicate that it's a serious pitch. If you can throw a fastball and cutter for strikes, you'll go a long way in this league. Best of all, he seems to be still learning his craft: like Shaun Marcum, he was a shortstop his first couple of years in college and didn't pitch a whole lot. The comments I've read from Giants fans indicate that Accardo was expected to get better with time -- they're not real happy to see him go. I don't look at service time as a huge advantage: Chulk was under the Jays' control for some time to come as well. Downsides: from what I've read, his fastball doesn't have a ton of movement, he gives up more hits than someone with his stuff ought, and the Giants worked him too hard earlier this year, causing his numbers to rise recently, though I presume his health to be fine. Overall, he looks like Justin Speier right now, and he still has room to improve.

I may be a little biased against Chulk, since I was never very high on him, even coming through the minors. I think he's done a great job of maximizing his talent, but I still think he's a pretty fringy reliever to have a contending ballclub. He's too homer-prone, especially for the RC, to trust in a late-inning situation. My sense is that Chulk has pretty much maxed out -- the best we've seen from him is the best he has to offer, while Accardo still has room to grow. It's an upgrade for sure.

Hilenbrand obviously wasn't the trade chit he was before the incident, but as pointed out above, his annual summer swoon was well underway and JP hadn't seen much in the way of offers beforehand. The Jays' misfortune is that the marketplace for Hillenbrand's sericies didn't develop until July, by which time he had long since cooled off. The best part of the deal is the Giants taking on his contract (I expect that was what cost the Blue Jays Chulk -- and that in itself says a lot about how much this team still needs payroll flexibility). It's not a ton of money, but $3M will come in handy, either in a stretch-drive acquisition this season (which I doubt will happen), or for next winter's shopping expeditions.

If you look at it from the angle that the Jays had little leverage with which to deal a $6M DFA'ed malcontent, this is a very good trade: turning a disgruntled DH and a decent but fungible reliever into a very promising young relief arm and $3M savings. If you look at it from the angle that the Jays allowed the Hillenbrand situation to devolve into its eventual combustion, then the front office shouldn't get too much love. But I'm pleasantly surprised that JP turned a big negative into a pretty decent positive. If Accardo never becomes a better pitcher than he is now, it was a good salary dump and bullpen upgrade; if he steps it up a notch, then the Jays will have done very well indeed.

I'm looking forward to the Gone But Not Forgotten threads for both Vinnie and Shea.

If you add Accardo's stats for last year and this year, he shows a much better ability to get lefties out.  He absolutely shuts them down.  Very unusual for a RHP.  His numbers against righties aren't bad, but not nearly as good.  I am very concerned that the Blue Jays are going to use him incorrectly.  The Giants recognized his backwards split, and were using him a lot against lefties.  In fact, 38% of the batters he has faced so far in 2005 + 2006 have been lefties.  With the way John Gibbons uses his bullpen, I fear that he will not use Accardo in this manner.  I can see Gibbons pulling Accardo when a lefty is coming up, thus negating his value.  On the table below, note particularly Accardo's batting average and slugging percentage allowed vs lefties.  If they use him correctly, I think this is a very nice acquisition, but I doubt that Gibbons will use him properly.

Here are Accardo's total MLB numbers for 2005 + 2006:

                                     AB             H                AVE                OBP                   SLG

vs LH                           100             19              .190                .280                   .212

vs RH                           166             45              .271                .300                   .386

Is there any reason to believe that this is simply an anomaly based on a small sample?  I certainly wouldn't criticize Gibbons or JP (who will ultimately decide) if they take that tack.

Actually those OPG & SLG numbers look pretty good from either side.  I would just get him in there and let him pitch and not worry about batter to batter match ups......at least for the first while.

Aren't reverse splits very unusual that are not maintained over the long run?  If there isn't some specific identifiable reason for this phenomenom I would not count on it continuing.

A couple of corrections to my post -- Accardo's third pitch is a split-finger, not a slider, and the Jays saved about $2M in dumping Hillenbrand's salary.