Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - TDIB

Lyle Overbay and Bengie Molina come through for the Jays in extra innings as Scott Downs gets the win. The Jays generated lots of news yesterday with the installation of a new infield, the recall of Vinnie Chulk and another staph infection on the team. With acknowledgements to all who have done this before me, here are ten things I think about the Jays.

1. The big news of the day was the announcement that John McDonald has been installed as the full-time shortstop with Aaron Hill moving to second and Russ Adams to the bench. The theme of the radio pre-game show, from John Gibbons to Jerry Howarth, was that John McDonald deserves this chance. What exactly did John McDonald do to deserve this chance? His OPS+ in the last four years is 62, 47, 51, and 75. McDonald is by all accounts a good guy but to say he deserves this is like saying I deserve to be president of the company I work for because I have been a loyal worker. Of course right after I thought this McDonald hit his first home run in two years. Prove me wrong Johnny.

2. Why the rush to make this move now? When Aaron Hill was learning to play second base at the start of the season, and he hit .195 in April, the message from the team was to be patient, his hitting will come around. Now that Russ Adams is learning to play second he doesn't get the same accommodation? This leads me to ....

3. It's hard to win a division with young guys up the middle. Hill and Adams might not be rookies anymore but young infielders make more errors than veterans, Hill and Adams are learning how to play their position in the majors in real time. Teams who are trying to win now generally don't have the patience to live with the learning pains of young players. This explains why veteran shortstops hang around almost as long as LOOGY's, call it the Neifi Perez rule of contending.

4. Poor defense can split a clubhouse. I have no insight into the Jays clubhouse but when the defense is giving up lots of unearned runs the pitchers can say, "we are making the pitches, it's the defense that is making us look bad." This creates an "us versus them" between the pitchers and the offense. A lot was said today about a message being delivered, the message might be to the pitchers, "here is our best defense, now quit complaining and just pitch already".

5. JP is an emotional person as he has been reminding us this week in reference to his pre all-star outburst. It does seem that he has a knee jerk reaction from time to time, I know all teams make changes but a fan could get whiplash this season from following this team. The infield, the bullpen and the rotation have all seen changes and reversals this season seemingly on a weekly basis. There are more plot twists with this team than on the O.C. When does the club say enough already?

6. Whither Russ Adams? Let's assume for a minute that the Jays brass have determined that Aaron Hill is best suited for second base. The Jays will either have to stick with McDonald or sign another shortstop before next season. Can Adams be the utility guy, or does Adams have trade value to be another teams second baseman? I do think Adams has a chance to be an everyday second baseman, and he might do well for another team, but I hope JP doesn't deal him for spare parts because JP has lost faith in him.

7. When John Gibbons brought in Brandon League to pitch the eighth I wondered how far has Vinnie Chulk's stock fallen? Gibbons preferred a pitcher who pitched two innings twenty one hours ago to a rested Chulk. Hopefully Vinnie's two scoreless innings gets him back up to the middle of Gibby's list.

8. I might be a little late to this one but when do we agree Reed Johnson deserves a full time job? Reed is a much better hitter this year, reportedly due to his off-season workouts with the Giambi's pitching machine. Last season Johnson would fall for the outside slider or fastball in the best tradition of Joe Carter or Nomar. This season Johnson is not fishing outside and really hitting off-speed pitches well. Hands up if you knew Reed has a better OPS against right handed pitchers, over 200 points better in fact. With the Jays budget issues for next season I can see two possible scenarios. The first is that Catalanotto leaves as a free agent and Johnson becomes the everyday left fielder with Hinske as the fourth outfielder. The second scenario is that V-Dub is traded, Rios moves to centre, Johnson to be the everyday rightfielder, and Cat and a fourth outfielder type play left.

9. I think that if JP wants to make a buyers deal at the deadline he will have to trade off his major league roster. The only position player of value in the upper system is Adam Lind and his value is not that high. It's not that Lind is not a good hitter, he is, but because of his defensive limitations I am not sure if a national league team would be willing to trade for him. Also in the AL most DH jobs are locked up by veterans so many teams would not have a spot for him. Other than Lind the best Jays prospects are pitchers, and it's hard to see the Jays trading them with Lilly, and several of the bullpen arms, being free agents after the season.

10(a) The Tigers are good
10(b) Get well soon Ty Taubenheim
10(c) I hope AJ Burnett pitches eight innings today.

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 12:01 AM EDT.

TDIB - Ten Things I Think | 35 comments | Create New Account

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andrewkw - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#150757) #

While I do think Hill is better suited for 2nd then short long term. Short term I think the jays are much better off having Adams at 2nd then Johnny Mac at short. Instead of League why not just go straight to BJ? Chulk would have been a fine choice for the 8th but since that wasn't going to happen might as well have Ryan pitch 2 innings with a lead and take your chances that he won't be needed tomorrow.

I don't know what to think about Reed's sudden ability to hit rhp. If The Cat is not back then theres no harm in letting Reed start the season as the everyday left fielder since The Dude will be around to platoon with him if needed.

js_magloire - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#150758) #

Why the rush to make this move now? (hill to 2b,mcdonald to ss)

Adams was actually not doing that bad at 2b. He only has 2 errors there. This move was made because Hill has more errors than Adams did at shortstop. I have two thoughts on this. 1) Hill's errors seemed to be more clutch and grab, bobble type errors. He made a couple of over-throws, but at least he showed that he COULD make the throw to first on routine plays. His errors seem mental, and while for this season it might be wise to keep him at 2b where he's better NOW, I can see him not making this clutch-and-grab errors and becoming a serviceable (defensively) short-stop. I mean, both Adams and Hill have had to worry about their batting and a defensive switch mid-season. 2) Back to Adams. I really hope he doesn't become hands-down back up to Johny McDonald, cause he's not a good hitter. We can hope for singles most of the time at best. But with the way Adams hits at AAA, I believe if JP sold now, he'd be selling really really low. It'd be Itzuris-Lopez Part 3, while in the fifth year of his service time Adams breaks out as the .285, 13 hr, 15 stolen base guy. 3) Perhaps part of Hill's mental problems is not having enough confidence in his DP partner. Last year with O-Dog beside him, I noticed that a lot brushed off on him and he went back for more plays because he saw HOW to do them.

When John Gibbons brought in Brandon League

I like this move at first. I was hoping that League could pitch really well and become the new 8th inning flamethrowing set up guy. With an extra 1 or 2 guys really stepping it up in the bullpen, it would make a WORLD of difference. Of course, ideals and reality are far off. It'd be nice to have a good Speier, good League (or whoever), and great BJ be a 7-8-9 combo.

Reed Johnson deserves a full time job

I hope they can afford Cat because I like him. But it's becoming more and more obvious with how good Wells is that we won't be able to afford him. Reed is doing good.

CaramonLS - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#150760) #

Well, do remember there was rumblings about Reeder learning the 2B position since he has all the physical tools to play it..

Maybe JP plans to play a Glaus, Hill, Reed, Overbay INF if all goes well in ST? Yeah it might be a bit of a stretch, but you never know. I really don't think Hill has been that bad at SS and has a future there long term IMO. Adams isn't getting the benefit of the doubt and for good reason, he has almost 750 ABs, and just over a season and a half in the Majors, whereas Hill during his little funk had only played about half a season. Big difference there. People are really starting to sour on Adams. You either provide steady defense or steady offense, and Adams has done neither - Hill at least looked like the 2nd coming of O-Dog at 2B during his funk.

Cat HAS to stay IMO, production for the sum of money he is going to command is probably going to be one of the better bargins in the bigs. I really like him at the corner for the next few years w/ a decent platoon partner.

Zaun has to stay as well - he is a young 35 and I feel he could play with a good platoon partner (calling Jason Phillips) at least 2 more seasons and have decent production. He is in the best shape of his life and is better than Molina defensively or at least it isn't nearly as painful to watch.

VBF - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#150762) #

While I do think Hill is better suited for 2nd then short long term. Short term I think the jays are much better off having Adams at 2nd then Johnny Mac at short.

I think you mean Hill.

Don't look now, but the ninth spot in the Jays lineup has been a sinkhole The Whole Season. The best offense in baseball has had a below average sinkhole over halfway through this season. At least with Johnny Mac, you get the gold glove defense.

When Hill was struggling, he was making good solid contact and his strikeouts were few. Adams doesn't seem to be making the hard contact that Hill was making when he was struggling. There's also the fact that Adams has not proven anything at the Major League Level. Ever. He had one awesome month last year, a very good month, and in 2004 was great as a callup. But that's it.

Ron - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#150763) #

- If the Jays chosing Johnny McDonald over Adams as a starter doesn't indicate the Jays brass has lost faith in Russ Adams, than I don't know what is. Let's be real honest here, Adams has been a disaster on the field. Even at 2B, I thought he looked shaky. Overbay has had to bail him out with a couple of nice scoops and mid air grabs. Adams doesn't do much with the bat either. If you look at his career track record with the Jays, he has had only had 4 good months at the plate. Hill's poor defence at SS also doesn't help Adam's cause either. A team in a pennant race can't really afford to trot out 2 below average defenders in the middle infield.

JP has been on record saying Adams is still a big part of the Jays. I personally think he's blowing hot air and I expect him to be dealt in the off-season.

- Justin Speier must be asking himself what did he do to fall behind Brandon League on the depth chart. League should have come out to start the 7th, with Speier coming out to start the 8th. At least Vinnie Chulk provided 2 very nice innings of relief work. It was a long night/day for him. On his way to Toronto, his car got a flat tire and he had trouble crossing the border. He didn't arrive in the bullpen until the 6th inning.

- I'm still not sure what to make of Hinske's D. He's now made 5 great diving catches. Perhaps he's been in the position to dive for those balls because he lacks range. I call it the Derek Jeter effect. Perhaps a player like Ichiro would make those flyballs look like routine plays.

- If the Jays aren't within 5 games of first place in the East after this homestand, JP has to seriously considering becoming a seller.

- I hope the Jays start playing Zaun more against RHP. He's having a career year at the plate. I feel a little bit bad for him that the Jays signed Molina late in the off-season. Zaun was hoping to finally cash in as a FA and sign a long-term deal after this season. But with Molina getting the majority of playing time, I can't see a team giving Zaun more than a 1 yr contract.

- With all their injuries, how do the Yanks keep on winning? Shouldn't they be an under .500 ballclub by now?

js_magloire - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#150764) #

the ninth spot in the Jays lineup has been a sinkhole The Whole Season.

That's exaxtly right. The Jays in fact, according to THT, has the worst production overall out of the 2b position in all of baseball. So if Johny Mac can soildify the defense, and turn all those double plays, while the offence carries on like it has been, then it's fine. Rios be back soon because we need you. And Hillenbrand congratulations on your child adoption.

But this means one thing, that the Jays most pressing need really really is another good starting pitcher. We'll see how Marcum does. But the whole season that fifth spot has been empty, just like the 9th spot in the batting order, but a lot more damagin. Towers/Taubenheim, well, you know the story. This is the obvious glaring hole.

Alex Obal - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:28 AM EDT (#150765) #

Justin Speier must be asking himself what did he do to fall behind Brandon League on the depth chart. League should have come out to start the 7th, with Speier coming out to start the 8th.

I don't get why some managers think that way. Let's say it's the top of the 7th and you have Speier and League ready. Let's also say just for the sake of argument that since League pitched 2 innings yesterday, Speier is absolutely, unequivocally going to perform better than League in this particular game.

Now let's say you have to deal with the following hitters.

A - .339/.394/.439 (L)
B - .258/.322/.401 (R)
C - .285/.322/.455 (R)
D - .282/.349/.541 (L)
E - .226/.297/.430 (R)
F - .232/.306/.379 (S)
G - .290/.339/.456 (R)

The 8 and 9 hitters are righthanded contact guys who are unlikely to cause serious damage. Now... the best hitters are A, D, C and G. Clearly, it makes more sense to throw your best shot in the 7th inning against the top of the order, since those are the most likely hitters to spark a comeback. If that means your nominal 7th-inning setup guy gets the 8th because a less intimidating part of the order will bat in the 8th, so be it. This way you avoid having your weaker pitchers face the opposition's strongest hitters - that's just tempting fate. Unfortunately, E and F are Sexson and Everett, League's fastball lost about 3 or 4 mph on average, and it didn't quite work out as planned. So it goes. (In case this wasn't transparent enough, A is Ichiro, and so on.)

If Gibbons hiccuped, it was in bringing Schoeneweis in for Speier to face Ibanez with a man on and two out in the top of the 7th with a one-run lead. Speier hadn't pitched since the Royals series and could easily have gone two innings tonight. Ibanez is definitely the most fearsome hitter in Seattle's lineup (.309/.379/.594 vs RHP in '06), but I thought having Speier throw the 8th inning at the expense of the lowish-leverage platoon edge on Ibanez was a better play than having SS lock Ibanez down but being forced to scramble through the 8th. Of course, it all looks so much easier in hindsight, and Gibbons had the magic touch once the game was tied.

On an unrelated note - after the 7th inning, the Jumbotron led fans in a sing-along of "Sweet Caroline," complete with lyrics and a bouncing ball. It went over like a lead balloon in my section, but I guess it might have done better in areas less densely populated by small children. I suppose it was cute. My question is, why do we need to rip off Fenway traditions, tacitly admitting that Red Sox fans are awesome? Does anyone else do this? Will this happen when Boston is in town?

slitheringslider - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:45 AM EDT (#150767) #

With our shambled infield this year, does any wish we drafted Troy Tulowitzki instead of Ricky Romero last year? I have nothing against Romero and I think he will turn out to be a good pitcher, but Tulowitzki seems to be the real deal at SS for the rockies right now.

Magpie - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 04:44 AM EDT (#150769) #

If Gibbons hiccuped, it was in bringing Schoeneweis in for Speier to face Ibanez

Yes, Yes, Yes!. I was moaning about it at the time. The modern manager's reflexive call for the mid-inning LOOGY. What began as a strategy has devolved into an obsession (thank you, Mr La Russa).

Although I may have been mostly irritated by the knowledge that if Schoeneweis didn't get Ibanez, we would have been subjected to another mid-inning pitching change.

Bill James once proposed that each team be allowed to make just one mid-inning pitching change a game, unless the pitcher on the mound has actually surrendered a run in the inning. I'm on board.

Magpie - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 04:50 AM EDT (#150770) #

By the way, Craig Counsell is a free agent after this season. He's on the DL for at least three weeks, and he's probably out of a job. The D'Backs just called up Stephen Drew to play short, and there's a very good chance that Counsell will be the Wally Pipp of the desert when he returns.

If Drew plays well over the next couple of weeks, Counsell should be available and cheap.

Chuck - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#150773) #

Adams was actually not doing that bad at 2b. He only has 2 errors there. This move was made because Hill has more errors than Adams did at shortstop.

JS, I am in agreement. While Adams has certainly not helped his cause with the bat, it has been Hill's flurry of recent struggles at shortstop that, I believe, have caused the organization to conclude that neither Adams nor Hill are major league shortstops. Choosing one of the two to play second is a no-brainer so that leaves Adams out in the cold. If the team does get a new SS, then I'd be very surprised to see Adams on the team in 2007. I'd say his only chances of becoming a starter are with another organization and subbing for an injured player.

CeeBee - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#150775) #

Given the players presently on the major league roster or even the 40 man roster I'd rather see Hill at 2nd and Johnny Mac at SS than any other middle infield combo. Strength up the middle is essential to winning and while the Jays are pretty good at catcher and centerfield, the middle infield is not anywhere up to snuff. Unless JP is completely blind I'm betting that a shortstop is pretty close to number one on his shopping list, if not for the rest of this year at least in the off season.

ken_warren - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#150776) #

With all their injuries, how do the Yanks keep on winning? Shouldn't they be an under .500 ballclub by now?

Here are a few reasons:

a) Jeter, the shortstop - 376 PA - 345/427/468/895
b) A-Rod, the 3B - 380 PA - 284/391/502/893
c) Damon, the CF - 372 PA - 291/369/470/839
d) Giambi, the 1B - 336 PA - 261/417/603/1.020
e) Posada, the catcher - 295 PA - 280/390/461/851
f) Cano, the 2B - 282 PA - 325/353/439/792

With Bobby Abreau on the way. So much for the Jays narrowing the gap with their trade deadline deals.

g) Matt Smith - 12 IP - 0.00 ERA
h) Mike Myers - 17 IP - 1.56 ERA
i) Rivera - 47 IP - 2.11
j) Villone - 45 IP - 2.22
i) Mussina - 128 IP - 3.30

Mussina (11-3), Wang (9-4), and Johnson (10-7) - a little bullpen support can go a long way.

OPS for .811
OPS against .721
OPS differential +.90
run differential +85
Bases on Balls - 366

Compared to the slightly less effiecient Jays

OPS for .845
OPS against .766
OPS differential +.79
run differential +39
Bases on Balls - 311

ken_warren - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#150777) #

But this means one thing, that the Jays most pressing need really really is another good starting pitcher. We'll see how Marcum does. But the whole season that fifth spot has been empty, just like the 9th spot in the batting order, but a lot more damagin. Towers/Taubenheim, well, you know the story. This is the obvious glaring hole.

When Towers/Taubenheim start a game the Jays are 5-15. Whenever someone else starts they are a "Detroit Tiger like" 45-25. On the surface it looks like an obvious potential area of significant improvement. The good news is that once the playoffs start the quality of a teams 5th starter becomes largely irrelevant and the Jays will no longer be at a disadvantage. Another example of where big payroll teams lose some of their advantage in the playoffs. Some of the pitcing acquired to insure a deep rotation becomes unnecessary.

The Jays will likely roll Halladay, Beckett, and Lilly out there on 3-days rest. It will be 1985 all over again!!

ken_warren - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#150778) #

The Jays will likely roll Halladay, Beckett, and Lilly out there on 3-days rest. It will be 1985 all over again!!

Better make that Burnett?? Unless the Blue Jays can pull of that Burnett/Adams for Beckett/Gonzalez deal.

Jordan - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#150779) #

[A] shortstop is pretty close to number one on his shopping list, if not for the rest of this year at least in the off season.

Quite possibly. But when your first two first-round draft picks as a GM were both shortstops, and four years later you find yourself having to go out onto the market to find a shortstop, then something's gone awry. Does the fault lie with the players for failing to meet expectations, or with the team for misjudging their abilities? Either way, the Jays certainly couldn't have expected, following Hill's selection, that they'd find themselves in this position today.

It's worth remembering that with even average pitching, the Jays would be in the thick of the pennant race right now, not at the fringes. Had Chacin and Burnett merely repeated their 2005 performances, and had Towers even fallen back to his career average, then Casey Janssen and Ty Taubenheim could have spent the season bolstering a struggling bullpen rather than trying to patch the rotation together, and the Jays would be not unadjacent to first place. The Blue Jays are fighting for playoff air because their pitching didn't come together, not because Russ Adams has struggled.

The team might be wise to remember that as they look towards 2007 and beyond. I'm not opposed to a stopgap solution like Julio Lugo this year, if it helps keep the team competitive -- the Jays should keep competing until it's clear they're out of it; no selloffs till then. But if the Jays completely give up on Adams after switching him from Toronto shortstop to Syracuse second baseman to Toronto second baseman to Toronto benchwarmer before the middle of July, then they should know where to place the blame. The middle infield has been a problem, but not the problem, and I trust Ricciardi won't pretend otherwise.

Pistol - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#150780) #

I like this gimmick:

1. McDonald doesn't deserve the job, that's just the spin. But if Adams is going to hit like McDonald you might as well have McDonald in there.

2. Hill's probably an average SS defensively, at best.

3. Hill seems to be an above average 2B defensively.

4. There was a Gibbons quote that the Jays had been thinking the middle infield move for awhile. And while I'm sure they have talked about it it's sure quite a coincidence to do it the first game after the break after a horrible defensive game.

5. I think the Jays are more likely to trade for a SS than a pitcher.

6. FREE FRASOR!

7. Gerry watches the OC?

8. I disagree with Gerry that the Jays won't be trading players in the minors. I could see a Ramirez or MacDonald type being traded. It obviously wouldn't be for a premier player, but it could fill the middle infield hole.

9. BJ Ryan has pitched more than 1 inning a lot this year. I hope the Jays aren't burning him out.

10. Does Marcum still get a start after reliveing yesterday?

ken_warren - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#150784) #

The best offense in baseball has had a below average sinkhole over halfway through this season.

Let's take a look at the best offenses in the AL and see where the Jays actually fit in.

Here are the top 5 major league offenses ordered by OPS:

Toronto       361/484/845   307 BB   5.36 R/G    5.91 xR/G .280 BA/RISP
White Sox   352/474/826   297         5.87         5.66          .311
Boston        367/456/823   394         5.62           5.62            .265
Cleveland   351/466/817   306         5.53         5.54    .291
Yankees     364/447/811   360         5.67           5.46            .284

While the Jays are the best in OPS by a large margin, they are having serious problems transforming this into runs scored. The Yankees and White Sox are exceeding their "expected runs per game by 0.21". Boston and Cleveland are right on expectations, by the Blue Jays are scoring an amazing 0.55 runs fewer per game than would be expected based on their OPS. This is 55 runs so far on the season which would equate to another 5.5 wins. And we all know where those potential wins would have the Blue Jays sitting now.

What is the reason for this? Well a relatively low "batting average with runners in scoring position" certainly isn't helping. I can't imagine that Russ Adams' 63 PA in the leadoff spot are actually helping matters much either.

Possibly, simple bad luck is the main culprit and we can expect more runs to be scored from here on out, assuming the OPS remains high.

Pistol - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#150787) #

BP's numbers have the Jays scoring 37 less runs than expected. (The Jays have played 90, not 100 games)

Last year the Jays scored more than they were expected to, and if I recall correctly it was because of a strong BA with RISP.

dan gordon - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#150793) #

I might be a little late to this one but when do we agree Reed Johnson deserves a full time job?

I see Zaun is starting again vs a RHP today. The fourth consecutive game vs a RHP that Zaun has started. Good to see. On the other hand, they continue to do strange things with the lineup. Molina DH'ing vs a RHP instead of Hinske? That's crazy. Hinske is a vastly superior hitter vs RHP than Molina.

ken_warren - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#150794) #

I have mentioned Johnson a couple of times this year. The idea that he cannot hit right handers is very slow to die. Mike Wilner still talks about Johnson hitting much better against lefties. That hasn't been true for a long time. Not just this year. If you look at his splits last year, his OBP and SLG were almost identical against LHP and RHP. This year, he is hitting much better against righties than lefties. He has the highest OBP on the team against RHP. He has the 2nd highest SLG % on the team (behind Wells) against RHP, and he has the highest OPS against RHP on the team. The idea that Johnson does not hit well vs RHP is simply wrong.

I think that the small sample size may have something to do with this "apparent" change in Johnson's abilty.

From 2003 to 2005:

vs LHB - 460 AB - .806 OPS
vs RHP - 887 AB - .702 OPS

He has only 105 AB vs. RHB in 2006 with an astronomical .430 BABIP. Nothing meaningful can be determined from this anomaly. He has been a "very lucky" hitter this season with most of that luck coming when he faces RHP. Unfortunately he will come back to earth at some point.

Chuck - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#150796) #

Reed Johnson: OPS vs LHP/RHP

2003: 899/731
2004: 790/656
2005: 753/737
2006: 872/1048

While it's true that 2005 marked the first season that Johnson didn't exhibit a huge platoon differential, it wasn't because he suddenly started hitting RHP. Rather, it was because he just stopped hitting LHP.

So prior to 2006, a compelling argument could simply not be made for Johnson to play against RHP. I always saw him as a platoon player (and that is not meant to be disparaging) and hoped that 2006 would see him return to his 2003/2004 form. And against LHP, he has done just that. It's just this whacky throttling of RHP that's the pronounced change in his game.

On a per AB basis, he has clearly been one of MLB's top performers this season. The question becomes, what predictive value does that 1048 OPS vs RHP hold? When Rios returns, should Johnson continue playing every day, with Catalanotto forcing Hillenbrand in a DH platoon? Does Johnson's prominence suddenly make Hillenbrand more expendable (particularly as he struggles through his annual second-half slide)?

While I admit to being very nervous about the organization banking, in 2007, on any kind of repeat of the career years that Catalanotto and Johnson are putting up, I can't see that Gibbons has any choice but to play the hot hand. That is, even in the absence of a mathematical basis for such a belief!

Even should Johnson hit no better than Hillenband vs RHP for the balance of the season, playing him in LF tightens up the outfield defense (on the heels of the infield defense being optimized).

dan gordon - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#150797) #

I think that the small sample size may have something to do with this "apparent" change in Johnson's abilty.

From 2003 to 2005:

vs LHB - 460 AB - .806 OPS
vs RHP - 887 AB - .702 OPS

Lumping 2005 in with the previous 2 years produces quite a distortion. You've got to look at the point in his career where he started to hit well vs RHP. In 2003/2004 Johnson had a fairly large split in his performance vs LHP and RHP. Since then, he has not had a problem with RHP. That is a sample size of more than 600 AB's, which is not small.

Sometimes when a player first comes up the big leagues, he will hit significantly better when he has the platoon advantage. That was the case for Johnson's first 2 seasons. Sometimes this causes a label to be hung on a player (he can't hit RHP/LHP as the case may be). Sometimes a player never makes the adjustment (Catalanotto, Hinske, etc.) and the player should be a platoon player. Sometimes a player makes the adjustment, but the label sticks. Unfortunately, first impressions can be hard to shake. In Johnson's case it appears that the label that he doesn't hit well vs RHP is hanging on when it is no longer correct, as evidenced by the last season and a half.

dan gordon - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#150798) #

Chuck, you make a good point about Johnson's numbers in 2005. I was looking at the platoon splits but not he absolute performance vs RHP. I still think he should be playing more than he is.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#150799) #

There are a number of signs of increased baseball intelligence on Johnson's part in 2006; it is not all luck. The significantly improved W/K and K/PA ratios in 2006, against all types of pitching, and the improved stolen base success rate are indicators. With his high line drive rate (23%) and his speed, a good BABIP, albeit lower than his current one. should not be a surprise.

So, if you take into account Johnson's 2003-06 numbers against right-handed pitchers, with a weight of 2 for 2006 plate appearances (210 PAs for 2006, 887 for 2003-2005), you get a line of .289/.352/.423. That is, in my view, a reasonable expectation for him going forward. In other words, he's crossed the line into being a valuable everyday player if the Jays need that. There really is not much to choose between him and Hinske in right-field against right-handed pitching. Hinske's got more pop; Johnson plays better D.

CeeBee - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#150800) #

"On the other hand, they continue to do strange things with the lineup. Molina DH'ing vs a RHP instead of Hinske? That's crazy. Hinske is a vastly superior hitter vs RHP than Molina."

Hindsight being 20-20, unless Gibbons had a feeling that Glaus was questionable to play the whole game it could have been a somewhat strange decision to DH Molina. With Hillenbrand not available I'm wondering if Gibbons kept Hinske on the bench on purpose? Anyway, it all turned out ok as Hinske had to go in and play 3rd, Molina had a big hit in the 11th and the Cat came through with 2 down.

Ron - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#150802) #

Thank You very much Mike Hargrove for being a slave to the save. The Jays could have been swept by the Mariners but ended up winning 2 out of 3. When you have an ace reliever like JJ Putz there's no need to use him in extra innings if the game is tied because it's not a save situation..........

I was very encouraged by AJ Burnett's start. The Jays needed their starter to go deep into todays game, and AJ delivered.

Boy that Ryan fella is a horrible pitcher, how dare he finally give up a HR. What is he human now?

Bring on the Rangers.

Ryan C - Sunday, July 16 2006 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#150803) #

While I admit to being very nervous about the organization banking, in 2007, on any kind of repeat of the career years that Catalanotto and Johnson are putting up, I can't see that Gibbons has any choice but to play the hot hand. That is, even in the absence of a mathematical basis for such a belief!

Maybe it's just because I love the Cat so much, but I dont have any problem with banking on him being a solid contributor in the future and I hope the Jays are thinking about keeping him around. Perhaps not quite as good as this season has been, but his numbers in 2001 were remarkably similar to what he's accomplished this year. My main concern with Frank would be injuries.

As it stands right now Hillenbrand are Catalanatto are both set to walk at the end of the year. I think the team can withstand the loss of one of them, especially if there are plans to upgrade at SS in the off-season, but the loss of both would be taking a significant risk that Reed, Rios, and Hinske are all going to be able to perform next season.

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