That wasn't the best way to begin The Most Important Homestand of the Season.
Ten games in ten days. On July 24, the Blue Jays depart for the west coast, while GM Ricciardi considers his options:
To buy or not to buy - that is the question
Whether 'tis smarter in the end to decline
The waste and flotsam at outrageous prices
Or to find arms among this sea of refuse
And by obtaining, beat them - to buy, to spend
It all - and having spent, we may find naught
But heartache, and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to.
Ten games in ten days. It should go something like this:
Fri 14 July - Seattle (Meche) at Toronto (Janssen)
Sat 15 July - Seattle (Moyer) at Toronto (Halladay)
Sun 16 July - Seattle (Hernandez) at Toronto (Burnett)
Mon 17 July - Texas (Koronka) at Toronto (Lilly)
Tue 18 July - Texas (Padilla) at Toronto (Marcum)
Wed 19 July - Texas (Millwood) at Toronto (Janssen)
Thu 20 July - New York (Mussina) at Toronto (Halladay)
Fri 21 July - New York (Wright) at Toronto (Burnett)
Sat 22 July - New York (Wang) at Toronto (Lilly)
Sun 23 July - New York (Ponson) at Toronto (Marcum)
The Red Sox and Yankees also play Seattle during this period. The Yankees are currently hosting the White Sox - Seattle comes to the Stadium for three before the Bombers come to Toronto. The Red Sox have two more with Oakland before the Royals come to Fenway. Boston then heads west to play Seattle.
The Texas series scares the crap out of me - Marcum will be making his first major league start, which is never reassuring, and Casey Janssen may have turned back into a pumpkin. In his last six starts, Janssen is 1-5, 8.64 - in 25 IP he's allowed 44 H, 24 R, 24 ER, 9 BB, 12 Ks. Any way you look at it, he's certainly filling the void that Josh Towers left. The Rangers roughed him up pretty badly down in Arlington. As for Lilly - if the Jays score four runs, he'll win. If they don't, he'll lose. Lilly is 7-1 when the Jays score four runs or more, and he's 1-7 when they score three runs or less.
Since time immemorial, the Yankees have won the AL East. Boston always finishes second, but take the Wild Card for their troubles. And the Blue Jays come in third. This is The Way it has Always Been, with the exception of the Season From Hell.
It was my belief that 2006 would be the year that all of this would change. One of the Beasts of the East would fall, the Blue Jays would finish second with about 90 wins... but that wouldn't be enough to take the Wild Card, which for once would not come out of the AL East. I didn't just say these reckless things here - I even repeated them to the Toronto Star before the season started (and after looking it up to find the link, I discover I also said I was "very, very excited about Francisco Liriano" and "Bonderman and Verlander just might explode on the league." Gosh. I'm usually much more... wrong.)
Anyway... I still think one of the Beasts must fall and Toronto will finish second and not make the Wild Card. I want to be stubborn about this! However, it's unlikely to happen the way I thought it would. I originally thought it would be Boston that would stumble. They had some fairly obvious question marks going into the season - an entirely new infield, one starter I wouldn't trust to be good (Clement), another I wouldn't trust to be healthy (Beckett), two more old enough to fall apart at any moment (Schilling and Wakefield) and a black hole at the top of the bullpen. But the infield came together brilliantly. No one, absolutely no one expected Mike Lowell to play this well. His contract was the real price Boston paid to acquire Josh Beckett. Jon Papelbon solved their biggest bullpen problem, and the two old guys and the injury-prone guy have made all their starts.
There's more good news for the Red Sox. They have a terrific record at Fenway (27-12, .692) - that's the third best home record in the AL - and Boston has more home games remaining than any team in the AL. Like just about everyone, they'll be looking for another starting pitcher. The fifth spot in the rotation has been a revolving door all season. Matt Clement is injured, and was pretty bad before he got hurt. Jon Lester is 4-0, 2.89 but he's walked 25 guys in 37.1 IP and he won't keep winning if he keeps doing that. And if anything happens to Schilling or Ramirez, all bets are off. But for now, the Sox look pretty good to me.
Which brings us to the Bronx Bombers. I think a little respect for Joe Torre would not be out of line at this point. People who follow the Yankees complain incessantly about Torre's bullpen management, and his tendency to play favourites. To which, I would point out that people who follow any team closely complain incessantly about their manager's bullpen management and tendency to play favourites. That's what managers do. It will be pointed out that Torre is running a $200 million team, but just because Alex Rodriguez makes twice as much money as Scott Rolen doesn't mean he actually produces twice as much as Scott Rolen. The Yankees have to spend a lot of money because they spend so much of it stupidly, tossing it down black holes like Carl Pavano, where it disappears into a gravity well of nothingness and is never seen again.
Despite all the money they threw around, the Yankees found themselves short of starting pitching. Torre's response to wheel out the three guys he trusted (Mussina, Wang, and Johnson) every fifth day come hell or high water, and plug in whatever arms were lying around as necessary. The Big Unit hasn't been very good, but Mussina and Wang have delivered, and one of the Other Arms - the much-maligned Jaret Wright - actually seems to be asserting himself as the fourth starter (Wright has been better than Johnson, anyway.) The bridge between the starters and Rivera - Farnsworth, Proctor, Myers, Villone - has been adequate. Only three AL teams have given up fewer runs than the Bombers. The Yankees pitching has been a pleasant surprise.
The problem is on offense, and everybody knows what happened there - the long-term loss of Sheffield and Matsui. I haven't made a chart in a long time. Let's see if I can still manage...
Sheffield was originally hurt on April 29; Matsui went down two weeks later. Sheffield returned to the lineup briefly, but hasn't played since the end of May. The offense has been in decline ever since. Melky Cabrera is not the solution, Aubrey Huff has already been moved, and when Brian Cashman inquires about Bobby Abreu, the first words out of Pat Gillick's mouth will be "Philip Hughes." The Yanks are reported to be inquiring about Jeromy Burnitz and Craig Wilson.
Ten games in ten days. On July 24, the Blue Jays depart for the west coast, while GM Ricciardi considers his options:
To buy or not to buy - that is the question
Whether 'tis smarter in the end to decline
The waste and flotsam at outrageous prices
Or to find arms among this sea of refuse
And by obtaining, beat them - to buy, to spend
It all - and having spent, we may find naught
But heartache, and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to.
Ten games in ten days. It should go something like this:
Fri 14 July - Seattle (Meche) at Toronto (Janssen)
Sat 15 July - Seattle (Moyer) at Toronto (Halladay)
Sun 16 July - Seattle (Hernandez) at Toronto (Burnett)
Mon 17 July - Texas (Koronka) at Toronto (Lilly)
Tue 18 July - Texas (Padilla) at Toronto (Marcum)
Wed 19 July - Texas (Millwood) at Toronto (Janssen)
Thu 20 July - New York (Mussina) at Toronto (Halladay)
Fri 21 July - New York (Wright) at Toronto (Burnett)
Sat 22 July - New York (Wang) at Toronto (Lilly)
Sun 23 July - New York (Ponson) at Toronto (Marcum)
The Red Sox and Yankees also play Seattle during this period. The Yankees are currently hosting the White Sox - Seattle comes to the Stadium for three before the Bombers come to Toronto. The Red Sox have two more with Oakland before the Royals come to Fenway. Boston then heads west to play Seattle.
The Texas series scares the crap out of me - Marcum will be making his first major league start, which is never reassuring, and Casey Janssen may have turned back into a pumpkin. In his last six starts, Janssen is 1-5, 8.64 - in 25 IP he's allowed 44 H, 24 R, 24 ER, 9 BB, 12 Ks. Any way you look at it, he's certainly filling the void that Josh Towers left. The Rangers roughed him up pretty badly down in Arlington. As for Lilly - if the Jays score four runs, he'll win. If they don't, he'll lose. Lilly is 7-1 when the Jays score four runs or more, and he's 1-7 when they score three runs or less.
Since time immemorial, the Yankees have won the AL East. Boston always finishes second, but take the Wild Card for their troubles. And the Blue Jays come in third. This is The Way it has Always Been, with the exception of the Season From Hell.
It was my belief that 2006 would be the year that all of this would change. One of the Beasts of the East would fall, the Blue Jays would finish second with about 90 wins... but that wouldn't be enough to take the Wild Card, which for once would not come out of the AL East. I didn't just say these reckless things here - I even repeated them to the Toronto Star before the season started (and after looking it up to find the link, I discover I also said I was "very, very excited about Francisco Liriano" and "Bonderman and Verlander just might explode on the league." Gosh. I'm usually much more... wrong.)
Anyway... I still think one of the Beasts must fall and Toronto will finish second and not make the Wild Card. I want to be stubborn about this! However, it's unlikely to happen the way I thought it would. I originally thought it would be Boston that would stumble. They had some fairly obvious question marks going into the season - an entirely new infield, one starter I wouldn't trust to be good (Clement), another I wouldn't trust to be healthy (Beckett), two more old enough to fall apart at any moment (Schilling and Wakefield) and a black hole at the top of the bullpen. But the infield came together brilliantly. No one, absolutely no one expected Mike Lowell to play this well. His contract was the real price Boston paid to acquire Josh Beckett. Jon Papelbon solved their biggest bullpen problem, and the two old guys and the injury-prone guy have made all their starts.
There's more good news for the Red Sox. They have a terrific record at Fenway (27-12, .692) - that's the third best home record in the AL - and Boston has more home games remaining than any team in the AL. Like just about everyone, they'll be looking for another starting pitcher. The fifth spot in the rotation has been a revolving door all season. Matt Clement is injured, and was pretty bad before he got hurt. Jon Lester is 4-0, 2.89 but he's walked 25 guys in 37.1 IP and he won't keep winning if he keeps doing that. And if anything happens to Schilling or Ramirez, all bets are off. But for now, the Sox look pretty good to me.
Which brings us to the Bronx Bombers. I think a little respect for Joe Torre would not be out of line at this point. People who follow the Yankees complain incessantly about Torre's bullpen management, and his tendency to play favourites. To which, I would point out that people who follow any team closely complain incessantly about their manager's bullpen management and tendency to play favourites. That's what managers do. It will be pointed out that Torre is running a $200 million team, but just because Alex Rodriguez makes twice as much money as Scott Rolen doesn't mean he actually produces twice as much as Scott Rolen. The Yankees have to spend a lot of money because they spend so much of it stupidly, tossing it down black holes like Carl Pavano, where it disappears into a gravity well of nothingness and is never seen again.
Despite all the money they threw around, the Yankees found themselves short of starting pitching. Torre's response to wheel out the three guys he trusted (Mussina, Wang, and Johnson) every fifth day come hell or high water, and plug in whatever arms were lying around as necessary. The Big Unit hasn't been very good, but Mussina and Wang have delivered, and one of the Other Arms - the much-maligned Jaret Wright - actually seems to be asserting himself as the fourth starter (Wright has been better than Johnson, anyway.) The bridge between the starters and Rivera - Farnsworth, Proctor, Myers, Villone - has been adequate. Only three AL teams have given up fewer runs than the Bombers. The Yankees pitching has been a pleasant surprise.
The problem is on offense, and everybody knows what happened there - the long-term loss of Sheffield and Matsui. I haven't made a chart in a long time. Let's see if I can still manage...
Sheffield was originally hurt on April 29; Matsui went down two weeks later. Sheffield returned to the lineup briefly, but hasn't played since the end of May. The offense has been in decline ever since. Melky Cabrera is not the solution, Aubrey Huff has already been moved, and when Brian Cashman inquires about Bobby Abreu, the first words out of Pat Gillick's mouth will be "Philip Hughes." The Yanks are reported to be inquiring about Jeromy Burnitz and Craig Wilson.
