Hitting
The Chiefs are league average in hitting and they do have a lot of average hitters. Eleven Syracuse hitters have at least one hundred at-bats at the break, of that eleven two have an OPS over .751 and three are under .600. The best hitter by far is Kevin Barker who carries an OPS of .902 and who hit a home run in yesterdays all-star game. Barker is the best hitting prospect in AAA, which says a lot about the strength of the club's upper level hitting. Barker is thirty years old, thirty-one in a couple of weeks, and does have 236 uneventful major league at-bats, but he might deserve another shot as a late-bloomer. However first basemen are expected to be big hitters at the major league level and Barker probably falls short of expectations for a first baseman, which likely would be for a .290 hitter with 30 home runs. Barker in AAA is on pace for a .300 average with 25 home runs. That probably translates into a .270 major league average with 20 home runs, numbers that would be good for a fourth outfielder but not enough for a first baseman.
The second best hitter on the team, with an .802 OPS, is Chad Mottola who has seen some action with the Jays recently. The other veterans have not shone with the bat. Jason Phillips sports an OPS of .718,,very disappointing for a reputed good major league hitter. Luis Figueroa is at .593, Mike Mahoney is at .528 and Wayne Lydon is at .751. Lydon has been improving during the season but he does have the second most strikeouts on the team, not great for a lead-off, speedy hitter.
The numbers for the prospects look worse, John Hattig leads that group with a .748 OPS. Sergio Santos trails at .561. The other major problem for Roberts, Hattig, Griffin, Cosby and Santos is that none of them are excellent fielders. Each of them has to make the big team with their bats and none of them are doing it. Santos, Roberts and Hattig lead the team in errors as the Chiefs have the second most errors in the league.
The summary? Don't look to the Chiefs for hitting help.
Pitching
Pop quiz - how many pitchers have started a game for the Chiefs this season, through 90 games?
The Chiefs are tenth in the league in ERA and a major problem has been consistency. The only dependable starter for the Chiefs has been Josh Banks who has made nineteen starts. Jamie Vermilyea and David Purcey are next with twelve starts each. Gustavo Chacin and AJ Burnett made rehab starts in Syracuse and in total the Chiefs have used fifteen starters. In addition to the above five, Dustin McGowan, Francisco Rosario, Shaun Marcum and Davis Romero have shuffled between the bullpen and the rotation. Their two best pitchers, Casey Janssen and Ty Taubenheim, are with Toronto while Josh Towers is in Syracuse. Other than Josh Banks the rotation has been a revolving door. With several of these pitchers moving back and forward from the bullpen, and with injuries to Adrian Burnside and Lee Gronkiewicz, the Chiefs have used twenty seven different pitchers this season.
It is interesting to note that the three pitchers who have been demoted from Toronto, Frasor, Chulk and Towers have ERA's under 3, an indication of how good you need to be to succeed in the major leagues.
Six starting pitchers have a WHIP under 1.30, an arbitrary definition of average. As you would expect Ty Taubenheim and Casey Janssen are in that group along with Josh Towers. Shaun Marcum has an excellent 1.08 WHIP and Francisco Rosario is respectible at 1.23. The only one of the six who has not appeared for the parent club is Josh Banks who has given up more home runs, 26, than walks, 17. So who can JP look to when he needs help this season or next?
Shaun Marcum has major league experience and attacks hitters with four solid pitches. The Jays have said they prefer Marcum in the bullpen as, like Josh Towers, hitters can do better against him the third and fourth times through the order.
Francisco Rosario throws hard and is out of options after this season. Rosario should be a part of the bullpen next season which suits his fastball, slider approach.
Brandon League is now up with Toronto in the bullpen. League should also be a part of the bullpen for the next few years. League still does not strikeout a lot of opposing hitters, 7.1/9IP at AAA. League will use his velocity and movement to get the hitters to hit the ball on the ground in the infield.
Dustin McGowan is back in the starting rotation and looking for the consistency that will allow him to be successful with Toronto. McGowan has plus stuff but needs to hit his spots. Hopefully time will deliver that.
Josh Banks numbers look great except for one, his HR rate. Banks is working on a cutter, trying to mask his straight fastball. If Josh can figure out how to stay out of the middle of the plate he profiles like Marcum, a bullpen pitcher who could start in a pinch.
Jamie Vermilyea is a sinker, slider pitcher who relies on his defense to make the plays behind him. Contact type pitchers have good days when the ball is hit to the fielders, and bad days when the ball is hit between the infielders. Contact pitchers need time to develop their approach.
Ryan Houston throws hard but needs better control. When it comes he could help in the bullpen.
David Purcey still has a ways to go to fix his control issues. Purcey likely needs to spend some of 2007 in AAA to solidify his delivery.
Davis Romero was recently promoted to AAA and moved to the bullpen after being hit as a starter. Romero is another sinker, slider, change-up pitcher who needs time to refine his offerings and profiles as a reliever.
In summary the Jays have a number of bullpen candidates but only one bona-fide starting prospect, namely Dustin McGowan.
So another disappointing half-year for the Chiefs but even more disappointing has been the lack of outstanding performances by the prospects other than Janssen and Taubenheim in a small sample. The hitting cupboard is bare and there are questions over all the pitching prospects. With the poor record of New Hampshire this season, better days may not be ahead.
