Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Kansas City 6 Toronto 2

Ty Taubenheim struggled last night. The resurgent Royals' bats boomed, while Jays fans performed unspeakable rituals in the hopes of resurrecting the bats of their heroes. But, there is good news...

First and foremost, it's the 100th anniversary of Satchel Paige's birth. In his honour, may I suggest keeping your juices flowing by jangling around gently as you move. It is a Friday after all.

Star of the Game: Shaun Marcum threw 3 innings of 1 hit ball with 4 punchouts. He's done this before, so this may be the beginning of a beautiful thing.

Unsung Hero: Vernon Wells 9th inning homer did not change the Win Probability significantly, but was nice to see anyway.

For the Royals: Mark Redman's 8 innings of 5 hit ball did the trick.

Boxscore: No charge!

Elsewhere: David Ortiz was up to his old tricks, clubbing 2 longballs in a Red Sox win over the D-Rays, while Randy Johnson gave the Bronx Bombers 7 good innings in another thrashing of Cleveland. Pedro Martinez was put on the DL by the Mets, and phenom Mike Pelfrey got the call to the Show.

Today: A.J. Burnett gets the start for the Jays against the Royals tonight.

Posted by Mike Green on Friday, July 07 2006 @ 01:11 PM EDT.

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Chuck - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#150368) #

Are the Jays even in Kansas City yet? I mean, I saw a bunch of guys wearing Blue Jay uniforms, but surely that wasn't really the team. That was just a collection of guys they found in the parking lot before the game. Right?

Mike Green - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#150369) #

With a young pitcher on the mound for the Royals, the blues offers some advice to the Jays...

Well I might take a plane, I might take a train
If I have to walk, I'm goin' there just the same...

I'm goin' to Kansas City, Kansas City, here I come

Chuck - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#150370) #

Mr. Davenport believes the Jays have a 15% chance of making the playoffs.

Mike Green - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#150372) #

The one I cannot understand is how the Rangers are thought to have a 52% chance of winning the division and the Mariners an 8% chance. There's a game and a half separating them in the standings, and the Rangers have a +17 run differential whereas the Mariners have a +10. The Rangers' offence has been modestly underefficient in the first half, but the biggest item is their poor DER; perhaps the assumption is that there is a significant component of bad luck in that.

Whatever, if one gave me 6.5-1 odds on the Mariners as opposed to the Rangers, my money would be on King Felix. Alas, I don't bet...

Chuck - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#150373) #

I believe that Davenport's model factors in the specific teams to be played in the balance of the schedule. Perhaps Texas has a significantly easier remaining schedule than Seattle?

Magpie - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#150375) #

Perhaps Texas has a significantly easier remaining schedule than Seattle?

Seattle has 18 games left against the Beasts of the East, Texas has 7.

Mike Green - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#150376) #

It's true. The Mariners do have a tougher schedule, although the Beasts of the Central are pretty imposing themselves. The Rangers get to face the Twins in a couple of series. If they get Santana and Liriano twice each, they might not see the schedule-maker as a friend.

Anyways, it still seems to me that 52% for the Rangers and 8% for the Mariners overstates the case. Hernandez is likely to be much better the second half than he has been in the first.

Jim - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#150378) #

The one I cannot understand is how the Rangers are thought to have a 52% chance of winning the division

3rd order winning percentage has the Rangers playing over .550 baseball and the Mariners as a below .500 team. Given that they already lead by a couple of games and the Mariners have a tougher schedule the numbers just don't work out for them.

If the question is why do the Rangers do so well in 3rd order winning percentage that might take a little more thinking on my part....

Jim - Friday, July 07 2006 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#150380) #

but the biggest item is their poor DER

Trying to back into their 3rd order winning percentage, it doesn't look like DER would have a direct effect. It's solely based on AEQr and AEQRa - adjusted (by level of competition) equivalent runs and adjusted (by level of competition) equivalent runs allowed.

So potential reasons that I can come up with:
A. Bad park factor (which is a part of equiv. runs)
B. The Rangers have played against better competition to this point
C. The Rangers have underperformed actual runs scored or allowed against Equivalent Runs scored or allowed
D. The Mariners have overperformed actual runs scored or allowed against Equivalent Runs scored or allowed

I think those playoff odds reports are fun, but almost every time I've spent some time with them I find myself shaking my head about something. I think the Felix factor is the number reason why someone who was handicapping this race would give the Mariners a much better shot against Texas then this report does.

timpinder - Saturday, July 08 2006 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#150387) #

Another loss tonight, 13-3. I think a 15% chance of making the playoffs is being generous at this point. The Jays are now 6 games behind Boston with the Yankees in the way and the wildcard is just about out of reach. The farm system is the weakest it's been in years. Lilly, Hillenbrand, Catalanotto, Speier, Schoeneweis, and Zaun, among others, are set to walk at the end of the year with the Jays getting nothing in return. The Jays will only have roughly $10 million to spend next year on a DH, C, and at least one SP. I think, objectively, that at this point it's in the team's best interest to be sellers at the trade deadline, restock the farm system, and perhaps get a major league ready DH, C, and/or SP.

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