Here's my $.02 on the current state of the Blue Jays world (which is now worth $.018 US, thanks to the ever-rising Canadian dollar).
- Now that he's finally here and healthy, I can see why everybody makes such a fuss over A.J. Burnett. He seems to be able to effortlessly sling the ball in at about 96 miles an hour, and can locate it up or down in the zone. He also has a curve ball that breaks about a foot, which, last night, left two or three Atlanta batters staring helplessly at strike three.
What's more, he seems to have an attitude out there: while he was pitching, his mouth was twisted into what looked like a bit of a sneer. This might be just because of what he is chewing, or might be the look he gets when he's concentrating, but you get the impression that when Mr. Burnett takes the mound, it's the guy at the plate who is going to be doing most of the worrying out there. Let's just hope he stays healthy.
- Reason number 106127 why luck is so important: last night, Burnett managed to field a line drive hit right at him. He got his glove up against his right shoulder, and the ball landed right in it. A few inches higher, and it would have conked him on the head, which would have offered living proof that the baseball gods root for the Yankees and the Red Sox.
- People who are investing huge amounts of time and energy into getting Alex Rios on the all-star team might want to take note: Alex is only hitting .217 in June. This doesn't mean that he has reverted to the old, bad Alex of seasons past, mind you. The problem is that American League pitchers have recognized that challenging Alex with a fastball is a really, really bad idea. They're now throwing him off-speed pitches and breaking stuff, and hoping to find bad pitches he will swing at.
You can see the change in his walk total: Alex has drawn 11 walks this month, which is a far, far greater walk rate than he's ever shown before. Like Wells and Hill before him, Rios is going to have to make some adjustments, which may take some time. But he'll be all right as long as he finds some way to foul off tough strikes, and realizes that it's perfectly okay to draw a walk and let some other guy swing the bat. It might even be a good idea to sit Rios down every now and then and dust off the ghost of Eric Hinske. (Or play Reed in right a bit; see below.)
- Okay, this is getting ridiculous: Reed Johnson's on-base percentage in June is .527. Five-two-seven. Recall that .375 is a good OBP for a leadoff guy: this month, the difference between Sparky and merely good is equivalent to the difference between a good leadoff man and Ken Huckaby. Obviously, his numbers are partly due to his being platooned, but at some point you've got to ride the wave.
His platoon partner isn't exactly letting the side down, either: Frank Catalanotto's on-base percentage this month is a mere .453. And Vernon Wells is at .398. You may recall that, at the start of the season, most pundits believed that Toronto's outfield wasn't going to hit enough to help the team win. This is why I don't try to predict pennant races. (Speaking of which: Detroit?! What the?)
- The Blue Jays are poorly adapted to National League rules for a variety of reasons. The obvious one is that their pitchers have no idea what to do with a bat, other than vaguely wave it at pitches and hope they don't strain hamstrings while running out eight-hoppers to second. Another obvious problem is that the Jays have no place to play everybody, which leads to intriguing experiments, such as repeatedly playing Troy Glaus at shortstop (which still scares me).
But a less obvious difficulty is that the Jays' offense is built around keeping the line moving: each batter's job is to wait out the pitcher until he offers up a pitch that the batter can drive. If no such pitch is forthcoming, the Jays' approach is to draw the walk, knowing full well that the guy behind him in the order can do the job. This doesn't work in the National League, because of the pitcher having to bat.
How often, yesterday, did the Jays start to build a rally, only for it to be snuffed out when the pitcher came to bat with two on and two out? In the NL, you have to build your lineup in a more traditional way: I contend that your #5, #6 and #7 guys need to be able to drive in runs, even if they don't reach base as often, as any runners left on base after that will just be stranded by the pitcher. Discuss.
- By the way, the Jays are not a power-hitting ball club. The Jays' home run total is a park illusion: the Rogers Centre is, and always has been, a good place to hit home runs, especially when the roof is closed. Right-handed power hitters, in particular, seem to do well here. The Jays have a genuinely good offense, but have only 35 home runs on the road, as compared with 66 at home.
- John Gibbons has decided that the best way to win is to get the platoon advantage in the bullpen whenever possible. His Jays lead the league in bullpen appearances, but no full-time relief pitcher other than Ryan has worked more than 28 2/3 innings. The Jays have three pitchers who have worked fewer innings than games played: Schoeneweis, Frasor and Speier all average less than an inning an outing. It's an interesting question: can a pitcher remain healthy even if he pitches often, provided each outing doesn't run too long?
But if Gibbons keeps emptying his bullpen, he runs one major risk: he won't have anybody left if a game goes into extra innings. And he'll be doomed if multiple games go long. (Where have you gone, Paul Quantrill? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you!)
- Speaking of reliever overuse: Ryan obviously looked very tired last night. At this point, I'd recommend that Gibbons not even ask B.J. to come to the park tonight: he might be tempted to use him yet again. Recall that Duane Ward - Ryan's closest comp - looked indestructible right up until he destructed. Arm abuse takes a while to show up - and by then, it's too late.
- Despite everything that has gone wrong with the starting rotation, the bullpen, the middle infielders, and the occasionally error-prone defense, the Jays are only three back, and are only one back of the ridiculously expensive and rapidly aging New York Yankees. And the Jays are likely to get more reliable starting pitching here on out. I'd say hang on to your hats, folks - things could get interesting around here.
- Now that he's finally here and healthy, I can see why everybody makes such a fuss over A.J. Burnett. He seems to be able to effortlessly sling the ball in at about 96 miles an hour, and can locate it up or down in the zone. He also has a curve ball that breaks about a foot, which, last night, left two or three Atlanta batters staring helplessly at strike three.
What's more, he seems to have an attitude out there: while he was pitching, his mouth was twisted into what looked like a bit of a sneer. This might be just because of what he is chewing, or might be the look he gets when he's concentrating, but you get the impression that when Mr. Burnett takes the mound, it's the guy at the plate who is going to be doing most of the worrying out there. Let's just hope he stays healthy.
- Reason number 106127 why luck is so important: last night, Burnett managed to field a line drive hit right at him. He got his glove up against his right shoulder, and the ball landed right in it. A few inches higher, and it would have conked him on the head, which would have offered living proof that the baseball gods root for the Yankees and the Red Sox.
- People who are investing huge amounts of time and energy into getting Alex Rios on the all-star team might want to take note: Alex is only hitting .217 in June. This doesn't mean that he has reverted to the old, bad Alex of seasons past, mind you. The problem is that American League pitchers have recognized that challenging Alex with a fastball is a really, really bad idea. They're now throwing him off-speed pitches and breaking stuff, and hoping to find bad pitches he will swing at.
You can see the change in his walk total: Alex has drawn 11 walks this month, which is a far, far greater walk rate than he's ever shown before. Like Wells and Hill before him, Rios is going to have to make some adjustments, which may take some time. But he'll be all right as long as he finds some way to foul off tough strikes, and realizes that it's perfectly okay to draw a walk and let some other guy swing the bat. It might even be a good idea to sit Rios down every now and then and dust off the ghost of Eric Hinske. (Or play Reed in right a bit; see below.)
- Okay, this is getting ridiculous: Reed Johnson's on-base percentage in June is .527. Five-two-seven. Recall that .375 is a good OBP for a leadoff guy: this month, the difference between Sparky and merely good is equivalent to the difference between a good leadoff man and Ken Huckaby. Obviously, his numbers are partly due to his being platooned, but at some point you've got to ride the wave.
His platoon partner isn't exactly letting the side down, either: Frank Catalanotto's on-base percentage this month is a mere .453. And Vernon Wells is at .398. You may recall that, at the start of the season, most pundits believed that Toronto's outfield wasn't going to hit enough to help the team win. This is why I don't try to predict pennant races. (Speaking of which: Detroit?! What the?)
- The Blue Jays are poorly adapted to National League rules for a variety of reasons. The obvious one is that their pitchers have no idea what to do with a bat, other than vaguely wave it at pitches and hope they don't strain hamstrings while running out eight-hoppers to second. Another obvious problem is that the Jays have no place to play everybody, which leads to intriguing experiments, such as repeatedly playing Troy Glaus at shortstop (which still scares me).
But a less obvious difficulty is that the Jays' offense is built around keeping the line moving: each batter's job is to wait out the pitcher until he offers up a pitch that the batter can drive. If no such pitch is forthcoming, the Jays' approach is to draw the walk, knowing full well that the guy behind him in the order can do the job. This doesn't work in the National League, because of the pitcher having to bat.
How often, yesterday, did the Jays start to build a rally, only for it to be snuffed out when the pitcher came to bat with two on and two out? In the NL, you have to build your lineup in a more traditional way: I contend that your #5, #6 and #7 guys need to be able to drive in runs, even if they don't reach base as often, as any runners left on base after that will just be stranded by the pitcher. Discuss.
- By the way, the Jays are not a power-hitting ball club. The Jays' home run total is a park illusion: the Rogers Centre is, and always has been, a good place to hit home runs, especially when the roof is closed. Right-handed power hitters, in particular, seem to do well here. The Jays have a genuinely good offense, but have only 35 home runs on the road, as compared with 66 at home.
- John Gibbons has decided that the best way to win is to get the platoon advantage in the bullpen whenever possible. His Jays lead the league in bullpen appearances, but no full-time relief pitcher other than Ryan has worked more than 28 2/3 innings. The Jays have three pitchers who have worked fewer innings than games played: Schoeneweis, Frasor and Speier all average less than an inning an outing. It's an interesting question: can a pitcher remain healthy even if he pitches often, provided each outing doesn't run too long?
But if Gibbons keeps emptying his bullpen, he runs one major risk: he won't have anybody left if a game goes into extra innings. And he'll be doomed if multiple games go long. (Where have you gone, Paul Quantrill? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you!)
- Speaking of reliever overuse: Ryan obviously looked very tired last night. At this point, I'd recommend that Gibbons not even ask B.J. to come to the park tonight: he might be tempted to use him yet again. Recall that Duane Ward - Ryan's closest comp - looked indestructible right up until he destructed. Arm abuse takes a while to show up - and by then, it's too late.
- Despite everything that has gone wrong with the starting rotation, the bullpen, the middle infielders, and the occasionally error-prone defense, the Jays are only three back, and are only one back of the ridiculously expensive and rapidly aging New York Yankees. And the Jays are likely to get more reliable starting pitching here on out. I'd say hang on to your hats, folks - things could get interesting around here.
