I think I'd call missing Wells and Sturtze more of a blessing in disguise.  Wells has eight innings pitched and has been pretty bad, allowing four homer and fifteen hits total while only striking out one and its not as if its a fluke.  Last year he allows the most base runners and pitched the fewest innings since 2001 when he only made 11 starts.  Sturtze was almost as bad allowing three home runs in ten innings and hasnt been an above average pitcher since, coincedently enough, 2001 when he had an era+ of 101.  Neither of these guys were going to make or break the division so I dont really understand how they can really be lowlights. 

I can understand, however, the losses of Crisp, Timlin, Sheff, Posada and Burnett being important since they are all integral parts of the team.  I think perhaps that Klapisch is making a slightly bigger deal out of this than it is.  Injuries are part of the game and everyone is right where they thought they would be even if no one had been injured, it all evens out.

I think the Blue Jays timing has been pretty lucky so far, and by timing i mean when they happen to play certain teams.

The one that comes to mind first is their series against Oakland ...the A's had Chavez and Harden both injured, Garret Anderson was out when they played the Angels(not too big a loss). Ok thats all i got off the top of my head put it seems there are a few more. It was nice to see Loretta out tonight too

Right now, our only main injury is Burnett. Adam's can be back pretty soon if ready....But about Burnett, it actually works out perfectly if his first outing is going to be June 21st against the Braves, as they have vaguely scheduled. That will be the natural 2nd spot in the rotation. Taubenheim will pitch only 4 times, missing the Tigers (our top 3 will hit them), and hitting TB, Baltimore, Baltimore, and Florida. So from here on in, until Burnett is back, I would say that the worst is over. If Burnett makes his first start on June 21st, he will make 4 starts before the All star break, pitching to Atlanata, Washington, Phillidelphia and KC, a somewhat easy re-entry considering they are national league teams and not devastating like the BoSox...

Might I add that at that point, with Burnett back and without an 8 loss pitcher, facing an easier schedule (at least until after the All Star Break), our engines will be revving up for full flight, and we'll blast away and not look back.

(just hopefully a heat wave won't make Halladay too hot again).

I would not count Dotel - they signed him knowing he was gonna be out for the first part of the year...I would not count Posada, he hasn't even been on the DL...for the Jays, you have to remember Zaun's early leg difficulties (though it didn't really cost us any wins probably)...And there was the start Doc skipped - can we atribute a Towers loss to that?

;)

This is related very much so to this thread, except about another division. Tom Verducci explains why the Tigers are for real.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=As49yOiO2nGIVfKgvviNxjcRvLYF?slug=cnnsi-theyreforreal&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns

Very interesting article. But note, the Tigers are facing the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Blue Jays the next 2 weeks.

The only thing that's kept the Jays from having an extended winning streak is a lack of consistent pitching.  If Burnett had been healthy these last two months, the Red Sox and Yankees would have been chasing the Jays for first place.  As it is, you could call it a minor miracle that the Jays are a game and a half out of first place without their number two starter, without the Josh Towers that we remember from '04 and '05, and without a consistent bullpen aside from BJ Ryan.  I get a sense that this team hasn't really hit its stride yet; perhaps they will when Burnett returns, and Towers recovers his command.

June and July look like they will be the two months in which the Jays can build some momentum.  This is who they'll be playing during that time:

Tampa Bay - 3 games
Baltimore - 8 games
Detroit - 3 games
Florida - 3 games
Atlanta - 3 games
NY Mets - 3 games
Washington - 3 games
Philadelphia - 3 games
Texas - 6 games
KC - 3 games
Seattle - 6 games
Yankees - 4 games
Oakland - 3 games

32 games against teams they should beat versus 19 games against teams who they should be happy to beat.  I think it's reasonable to suggest the Jays could go 20-12 against the first group and 10-9 against the second, which would put them at 59-43 (.578) on August 1st.  Probably wouldn't be in first place with that record, but they'd be within shouting distance, anyway.  I think that the Jays will need to put a real winning streak together at some point if they want to win the division, and this time period seems like the best time for that to happen.  It's not a complete fantasy to project a 22-10 performance against the first group and a 12-7 performance against the second, and suddenly the Jays would be 63-39 (.617).  A lot of things would have to go right for the Jays in order for that to happen, but hey, the Red Sox and Yankees can't have all the good luck, can they?

What I really like about this team that JP has built, is that with the exception of the middle infielders, there is a lot of capable backups for the other positions which provides some injury protection (at least short-term).

Molina/Zaun/Philips solidify catching..

The 2 OF platoons provide insurance - even Wells can be backed up by Rios

Hinske and Hillenbrand backup up both 3b and 1b capably.

John A backs up both SS/2b, and this is the only area where I wish we had an additional option.  But good fielding AND good hitting utility infielders are not easy to find.

 

That Verducci article is annoying and ESPN Sunday Night Baseball-centric: "The Tigers are for real. Maybe not playoff kind of real, though it would be great if somebody forced the Yankees and Red Sox to sweat a little at the end of September instead of letting them treat the wild card as their annual get-out-of-jail-free card".

Response: The Jays are 1 1/2 back, 7-3 vs. the Red Stockings, and are far more likely to force the Spanks and Sox to "sweat a little".  But of the Tigers, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Big *3* offences of the East (Ranked #1, #3 and #5 with Toronto one run scored away from overtaking Cleveland for #2) are going to give their rotation fits.  Detroit should be very fortunate they are in the Central as it will take longer for the Tigers to crumble, as opposed to the O's of 2005.  Yes, the Sox and Indians are strong, but the Twins and KC are patsies on offense, while the Orioles are not, and the Rays are improving.

Anyway, as per the question posed in the thread, the Spanks would have to be affected the most with their outfield situation before Sheff returned.  They are fortunate their $200 million payroll can compensate in the other positions, but assuming Damon = Vernon (yes, V-Dub has much better power numbers but Damon gets lead-off and havoc-on-the-basepaths points), it would be the equivalent of Vernon playing with, say, Hinske fulltime and John-Ford Griffin.  Yikes.