Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Damn, but that Carl Crawford can play ball..


The Blue Jays got one good start, one mediocre start, and one poor start. Taking two out of three under those circumstances will do.

Taking all three games would have been an excellent way to bounce back from being swept for the first time. Why didn't it happen? I blame myself....



As it happens, I was in the house for the Monday and Tuesday games. They turned out well, and I was thinking that I might as well head down and take in the finale as well. Seeing as how I was going to write about the Devil Rays series and all. But I was feeling kind of sore and tired and decided to stay home. I apologize, humbly and profusely.

Although I do blame Carl Crawford as well. Damn, but he can play ball....

It was irritating, though. The Jays were three innings away from their first series sweep of the season. Alas, Schoeneweis, Frasor, and Speier allowed five runs over the last three innings, and the offense frittered away all kinds of opportunities to tie the game. In the seventh, the Jays put runners on first and third with one out, but Overbay hit into a double play to end the threat. In the eighth, still trailing by a run, the first two batters reached but Johnson, Rios, and Wells couldn't cash anyone in.

Liam and I took advantage of $2 Tuesday to see Doc work. On our way there, Liam asked me just how many games I've seen at the old ball yard over the years. My best guess was somewhere between 400 and 500; this, however, was the first time I'd actually seen a game from the stands since the pre-2005 renovation. What was especially interesting to me was this - they've really improved the sound. I remember everything over the public address system sounding distorted and garbled, and it generally still sounds that way in the press box. But seated up in 537, everything sounded clear and crisp. I was amazed, I couldn't get over it, I wouldn't shut up about it. Has anyone else noticed this?

I made a point of noting how the Toronto shortstops were positioning themselves - I recall someone wondering about that a couple of weeks back. There's a white chalk line that arches around the back of the infield. Julio Lugo generally played on the line, sometimes a step closer. Russ Adams was generally a step closer than that. And John McDonald plays very deep, about two steps deeper than the chalk line.

Tampa's win, along with the Orioles loss, moves them into a tie for fourth with the Orioles behind the three Beasts of the East. Tampa is going to finish fourth this season, and they are going to lose fewer than 90 games for the first time in their history. All of which I foretold, of course, but naturally it interests me to see what has worked out for them and what hasn't.

The best thing Tampa Bay has going for them is Scott Kazmir, of course. The kid has arrived - 7-2, 2.39 with 67 Ks in 64 innings more or less speaks for itself - and right now he's the man I would have start the All Star Game. He's been so good I don't even feel the need to look at his insane high school numbers anymore. And meanwhile, the New York Mets are looking desperately for starting pitching. I mean, actually giving starts to Jose Lima is just about as desperate as one can get. Kazmir for Zambrano has a chance to be one of those trades that is going to be remembered as long as people play baseball.

Kazmir is basically carrying the team on his back. Our old friend Lurch has been pitching pretty well, although he's been a little lucky on balls in play so far this year and probably can't keep it up. I think Seth McClung is a keeper, and he managed to string together a few fine starts earlier this year. He's still in the process of establishing himself in the league, and he's as inconsistent as Ted Lilly.

The Devil Rays have had some huge infield problems. Second baseman Jorge Cantu, who drove in 117 runs last year, has missed 31 of the first 47 games. That's bad news. Shortstop Julio Lugo has also missed almost a month's worth of games, which is also bad news because his replacement for much of that time was Tomas Perez.

One of the things I was wondering about rookie manager Joe Maddon was whether he would be able to resist the temptation to put one of his real fast guys in the leadoff spot, whether he would recognize that Julio Lugo was quite obviously the man best suited to hit first. The good news is that Maddon did recognize this - each of Lugo's at bats this year has come as the leadoff hitter. The bad news is that Lugo has completely forgotten how to take a walk - he has walked just once in 18 games this year, after drawing 61 BB in 2005. Very strange.

There's more bad news. The two corner infielders are hitting .195 and .167 and have driven in 18 runs between them. This is simply inexplicable, and at the Tuesday game, Liam and I were discussing the possibility that Aubrey Huff and Josh Towers had somehow switched bodies - Towers was pitching like Huff and Huff was hitting like Towers. It would explain many things, after all. But this too shall almost certainly pass. Travis Lee turns 31 on Friday, and Aubrey Huff doesn't turn 30 until later this year. It seems exceedingly probably that both of these men will hit at a level much closer to that they've already established for themselves.

The good news is that Ty Wigginton needs just one more homer to match his own career high - he has 11 already, and who saw that coming? Wigginton played poorly enough this spring to miss his chance to claim the third base job, and pretty much forced the Devil Rays to move Huff over to the hot corner.

One of the other reasons moving Huff back to the infield made sense was that the Devil Rays have lots of outfielders already on hand, and the organization's best prospect is an outfielder and he was believed to be beating on the door. The Delmon Young express has hit a roadblock, however, and I would think there's now a pretty good chance we won't see him in the majors at all this season. Rocco Baldelli hasn't played an inning in the outfield at any level since 2004 - he DHed exclusively this spring - he hurt his hamstring the day before he was going to make his outfield debut. He began his rehab assignment this week by going 2-4 as Durham's DH. Sooner or later, he will be roaming the Tampa outfield again, but it has taken quite a while.

And while that Carl Crawford can sure play ball, he's been off to something of a slow start. Wednesday night's magnificent performance did bump his batting average some 30 points however.

The offense has had one bright spot. Jonny Gomes is going to strike out 150 times, which makes you wonder if he can keep his BAVG in the .280 range where he has it so far. But he's got an excellent chance to hit 40 HRs, drive in 120 runs, and draw 75 walks, and if he does all of those things you don't mind if he hits .240. As a hitter, he's Troy Glaus. As an outfielder... well, Glaus would be better. Gomes is simply hilarious out there. He takes the strangest routes to the ball I have ever seen, and you really need to see him play in person to appreciate it. He changes direction at least three times on every ball hit to him. It's amazing to see...

The other semi-bright spot has been catcher Toby Hall, of whom I spoke somewhat harshly back in the spring:

Hall is not very good. He's a big strong guy, who looks like he ought to be a good hitter, but he's terrible. He makes pretty decent contact, but has no power and hacks at everything, resulting in a bountiful number of GDPs. He doesn't throw particularly well, and any evidence that he's good at working with pitchers is extremely hard to find. If there was one team in the majors that should have taken a run at Bengie Molina, it was the Devil Rays...

Hall hasn't been great by any stretch of the imagination, but last night's blast means he's hit more homers in 2006 than he did in 2005. Hall is the only guy on this team who is truly playing better than expected, with the possible exception of Gomes and Kazmir - and certainly, there are lots of people who are not at all by surprised by either Gomes or Kazmir. I know I'm not.

So - very little has gone right for Tampa. The middle infield has been crippled by injury. The corner infielders have lost the ability to hit. Baldelli and Young haven't made a major league appearance in 2006.

But they've now drawn even with Baltimore, and they will - I promise - leave the Orioles in the dust. The bottom feeding days are over.
Two Out of Three.... | 46 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#147559) #
I made a point of noting how the Toronto shortstops were positioning themselves - I recall someone wondering about that a couple of weeks back. There's a white chalk line that arches around the back of the infield. Julio Lugo generally played on the line, sometimes a step closer. Russ Adams was generally a step closer than that. And John McDonald plays very deep, about two steps deeper than the chalk line.

That was me. I speculated that Adams might be playing a shallower shortstop (a la Eckstein) to compensate for a relatively weak arm. The line of thinking went that his defensive shortcomings would result in additional hits allowed above and beyond all his errors.

Mets are looking desperately for starting pitching. I mean, actually giving starts to Jose Lima is just about as desperate as one can get.

Continuing with your desperation theme, they just traded for El Duque (El Desperado?).

Liam and I were discussing the possibility that Aubrey Huff and Josh Towers had somehow switched bodies - Towers was pitching like Huff and Huff was hitting like Towers. It would explain many things, after all. But this too shall almost certainly pass.

Huff has been trending downwards ever since age 26. He's certainly better than he's shown, but I wonder if the Lamar administration just simply held on to him too long. His trade value used to be very high. To my mind, his defense at the IF/OF corners is so poor that if he's not putting up an OPS of 850, he's not helping.

Rocco Baldelli hasn't played an inning in the outfield at any level since 2004 - he DHed exclusively this spring - he hurt his hamstring the day before he was going to make his outfield debut.

I heard Baldelli referred to as a superstar earlier this week. People want him to be Dimaggio. It will be interesting to see if he can still play a solid CF after this long layoff. He's still very young, but I wonder whether he'll hit enough for a corner outfielder, if that's where he ends up.

But they've now drawn even with Baltimore, and they will - I promise - leave the Orioles in the dust. The bottom feeding days are over.

They certainly have a new leadership team in place to turn things around, so there is reason for optimism. Still, if I'm a TB fan, I'm buying into the program when I see the athletic-but-not-very-good likes of Gathright and Hollins sent packing, when I see Delmon Young and B.J. Upton sorted out, when I see the likes of Wigginton (his 11 HR notwithstanding) not even invited to camp in the first place, when I see a single, solitary pitcher come through the ranks, when...

Jim - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#147566) #

Nice review Magpie.

I have tickets for Fenway Friday night and could not be happier that Kazmir is going to pitch. 

I guess for the Devil Rays it's going to come down to the promising arms in the system.  They are all much higher risk then the Blue Jays top prospects but I think in the next 2 or 3 years they will have a top 5 American League offense.  Brignac and Dukes are both off to good starts and have cemented themselves as pretty good secondary offensive prospects. 

The word is that Wade Davis is the real deal.  If they can get one above average starter out of Seddon/Niemann/Hammel, then I think they have the chance to get to .500 by 2008.  I know few will be impressed with how long it took, but to take a team with that payroll up against the Yankees and Red Sox and finish above 80 wins is a pretty nice accomplishment.  If they can get to .500 and Young and Upton finally arrive then maybe maybe they can dream of a 90 win season with a payroll in the $50MM range.

Jim - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#147567) #

'when I see the likes of Wigginton (his 11 HR notwithstanding'

This is a little harsh.  These are exactly the guys you want to have on hand to avoid the Terrance Long experience or Luis Figueroa playing too often.  Look at how JP handled the middle infield in the offseason and then tell me you wouldn't want Ty Wiggington on hand . 


Ty Wigginton has a career OPS+ of 96 coming into the season.  He's played 1st/2nd/3rd and has made a few appearances in the outfield.  His most similar players at BB-Ref include Lecroy/Cuddyer/Crede.  I've never understood why Wigginton gets so little respect... to me he's not a huge asset, but he certainly is a legitimate major league player.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#147574) #
I agree with Jim's assessment.  I like Dukes more than most-I think that he will be a very valuable contributor to some ballclub, although he may not fit in well with Tampa's needs.  When Jonny Gomes is the Rays'  DH, Jorge Cantu is their third baseman and they've got a second baseman who can play the position, we'll know that they have arrived.
Chuck - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#147578) #
Didn't mean to offend the local chapter of the Ty Wigginton fan club!

A question for those more tuned in to the minor leagues (and that includes pretty much everyone), what is going on with Upton this season? Specifically, what position is he playing? Has the SS experiment ended? A move to 2B would be the most useful to the parent club right now. If he ends up in the outfield, then methinks there will ultimately be four pegs (Baldelli, Crawford, Young, Upton) for three holes, the presumption being that Gomes becomes fulltime DH (and thus no longer requiring the use of MapQuest to track flyballs) with Huff being sent packing or moving to 1B.

Mike D - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#147594) #

Ty Wigginton has a career OPS+ of 96 coming into the season.

And he posted a 103 last year in his age 27 season.  Chuck, it's not just you -- there are a lot of folks around here who regularly view so-called "average" ballplayers as valueless and not worth any team's time. 

A 103 bat doesn't grow on trees.  One of the great revelations (to me, anyway) of Win Shares was the notion that "average" players do not have a neutral effect on teams.  Rather, they add value -- as much value as an average full-time player in the league.  Similarly, below-average players do not "harm" a team per se -- they just help the team less by adding less value than would an average player.

And if he hits 30 home runs, which he well may...

Magpie - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#147598) #
I'm buying into the program when...

All true, Chuck.They're not even a .500 team yet. But not losing 90 games is historic for Tampa Bay.

The thing about Wigginton... he's their John McDonald. He's supposed to be a backup infielder. The only reason he's been playing is because either Cantu or Lugo has been missing. It's pretty nice to get 11 HRs by the end of May from a guy who's supposed to have been on the bench, and will be heading to the bench as soon as Cantu gets back.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#147600) #
"The thing about Wigginton... he's their John McDonald."

I'd say he's their Eric Hinske, minus a walk a week.  Except he can also play 2nd and only makes $675,000 a year.  If he could add 30 points of average, he'd be Shea Hillenbrand.

That at $675,000?  Sounds pretty valuable to me.

With Travis Lee hitting .195/.262/.331, I'd say Lee, not Wigginton will be losing his spot in the line-up.





Mike Green - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#147603) #

We had a couple of "You Be the Manager" moments in last night's game.  There were some bullpen management questions, but the one that captured my interest was in the bottom of the 7th.  The Jays were down 8-7, Hill at second, Zaun at first (Molina already out of the game, so pinch-running is not realistic) and nobody out.  Johnson, Rios and Wells due up.  Catalanotto and Hinske on the bench.  The Rays have an all-righty pen and Camp is on the mound.  John Gibbons left Johnson in to hit, and asked him to bunt on the first pitch, and then switched off. 

Johnson is the better bunter, but Catalanotto is the better hitter and he would have had the platoon advantage.  It seemed like a pretty easy call to me, but then I am not a fan of the telegraphed bunt.

Chuck - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#147615) #
A 103 bat doesn't grow on trees.  One of the great revelations (to me, anyway) of Win Shares was the notion that "average" players do not have a neutral effect on teams.  Rather, they add value -- as much value as an average full-time player in the league.  Similarly, below-average players do not "harm" a team per se -- they just help the team less by adding less value than would an average player.

I most certainly don't view average players as valueless. That's just putting words in my mouth.

But there is context. Yes, the Cantu injury forced TB's hand in finding a replacement. And Wigginton is most assuredly playing out of necessity and not by design. I guess I'd rather see TB give playing time to someone who could turn into something, not someone who's ceiling is league average. And perhaps those somebodies don't exist in the organization so plan B to Cantu had to be Wigginton.

Wigginton surely deserves a spot on a major league roster. I agree with that. But he's far more valuable to a good team than a poor one, serving as a reserve who won't cripple you.

As for his 30 homeruns, well, I'm not into the Dudek-style challenges, but I'm fully expecting Wigginton to end the year with a sub-300 OPS and a sub-450 SLG.
Frank Markotich - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#147616) #

Johnson is very good at bunting for a hit, but the trouble is it's not the same as sacrificing and he sacrifices the same way he bunts for a hit. Instead of allowing the ball to meet the bat and ensuring getting it down (sacrifice), Johnson kind of jabs at the ball and tries to get it past the pitcher (bunt hit attempt).

It's just my personal observation, but I don't remember ever seeing Reed lay down a decent sac bunt. That being the case, I would have pinch hit Cat and swung away.

 

Gerry - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#147621) #
With all the events of the last 24 hours we are forgetting about Reed Josnson's great throw to nail Lugo at first.  It appears as though the Jays noted Lugo's big turns around first and set up a play if the chance presented itself.  Kudos to Reed for executing, even Lugo himself was impressed as he doffed his cap to the Jays in tribute.
Cristian - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#147622) #
This was posted at Primer and fits here.  It's a Billy Koch sighting and we all know what Bauxites thought of him.

Strange story about an unidentified illness he and his family seem to be suffering from.  Koch mentions that he's been suffering from it for a while and that it contributed to ending his baseball career.



Mike D - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#147628) #

Chuck, I guarantee that he won't have a "sub-300 OPS."  But I know what you meant.

I interpreted "should not have been invited to camp in the first place" as "valueless" -- and while I think I was being fair, I understand your point now that you've clarified it.  But more importantly, why do the Rays draw scorn for a situation that is working out well?  I view your broader point as correct:  Major League playing time is a precious commodity that should be used on players that will either help now, or develop now so that they will help later.  Call it the Dave Berg Theory -- lousy veterans shouldn't see the field.  But that's different from saying that veterans who are playing unforeseeably well shouldn't continue to see the field.  In the annals of Devil Rays history, inviting Ty Wigginton to camp doesn't crack the Top 200 Mistakes List. 

Magpie - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#147630) #
Johnson is very good at bunting for a hit, but the trouble is it's not the same as sacrificing...

Well observed - the same thing has occurred to me. Over the last three years, Sparky has just 6 sac bunts. Catalanotto himself has 7.

Cat is also less likely to strike out, less likely to hit into a DP, and he's probably more likely to hit the ball to the right side of the infield.
Chuck - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#147631) #
In the annals of Devil Rays history, inviting Ty Wigginton to camp doesn't crack the Top 200 Mistakes List.

Clearly not. But there's a new sherrif in town and I was looking forward to no longer seeing decisions that could have been made by Chuck Lamar. I saw the Wigginton signing for probably a lot worse than it really was. I saw it as a symptom that maybe things hadn't changed as much as expected. When you're signing the players that even David Littlefield doesn't want...

That Wigginton is playing well is more a case of the blind squirrel finding an acorn than someone's master plan to leverage the underappreciated skills of a player no one wanted. And I don't recall saying that Wigginton shouldn't continue to play. Hell, let those long suffering TB fans bask in Ty's .500 SLG (while it lasts). Whom I to advocate denying them that?

To my mind, the true test of this new management team will be how they deal with Upton. Clearly Young is earmarked for a corner OF, presumably RF given Crawford's arm. But what will become of Upton? CF would seem like a reasonable destination, but Baldelli was locked up to a longterm contract (which I was no fan of). And the little digging I did revealed that Upton is still playing SS.
Gerry - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#147633) #

How about this:

There are only five teams in the AL with a winning record.  Texas, who lead the west, are at .500.  If the playoffs started today the Yankees and the Jays would miss out as two teams from the AL central would make it.

In the NL 12 teams have a winning record and no team has a winning percentage in the .400's.  There are 12 winning teams and four really bad teams. 

Mike D - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#147635) #

That Wigginton is playing well is more a case of the blind squirrel finding an acorn than someone's master plan to leverage the underappreciated skills of a player no one wanted.

This may be exactly right; it may be exactly wrong; and it may be somewhere in between.  All clubs -- even Tampa Bay -- do significant diligence on players that they invite to camp, especially if they aren't all that old.  They may well have seen something in his swing or approach that they felt could unlock some power potential.  Or he may just have had a strong April and will play poorly the rest of the season.  But it's not certain to be the latter, even if it's statistically likely.

Respectfully, I think it's awfully blithe to write off success that smart forecasters didn't see coming as blind luck, and it happens a lot in the analytical community.  You may well be proven right after predicting a substantial decline going forward, and if I had to choose, I'd predict that you will be proven right.  But assuming for the moment that Ty has a solid season, viewing Tampa management as "blind squirrels" who got lucky cuts off a debate in a way that inhibits us from understanding what Wigginton and/or the team did to get a good performance out of him. 

Mike Green - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#147639) #
Wigginton over the last few years has added some power.  He's now 28, and his GB/FB ratio of the last 2 years suggests that he should be able to maintain his power over a season.  There's nothing in his stats this year which screams "luck".  His defence at second base is a different matter entirely, but he is a valuable utility player and there is no reason that he cannot continue to be one for a few years.
Blue in SK - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#147656) #

I should have mentioned that Alfonzo is going to AA. Also, Blair's latest is up and he confirms Hill to SS.

"Ricciardi said that Adams will play second base at Syracuse and that Hill will work out at shortstop in the majors — although for the time being, he will play second base during games."

Kennedy for Shea is getting closer - money is the hold-up. I'm not sure why JP would do this, right now they are winning due to their offense prowess. If Kennedy replaces Adams spot in the batting order, that's seems like a wash offensively.  So, who replaces Shea's bat?

VBF - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#147658) #

All things considered:

-I think the Jays have lost alot of confidence in Molina's defensive abilities. He's still a good catcher and has value there, but in the event of a Shea departure, I think we might see alot more of Zaun behind the dish. With Zaun there, I could see a Molina/Hinske platoon which historically could work well.

-If JP is not confident in  a Molina/Hinske platoon at DH, there's also the possibility that something else is cooking. Just to throw a name out, JP has always liked Carlos Lee: he's a free agent after this year and while it is early, Milwaukee are looking like odd men out in the NL Central pennant race rendering Lee a trade candidate barring a Brewers run of terror before July.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#147660) #
Gustavo Chacin's rehab outing in Syracuse tonight wasn't great (2.1 innings and 57 pitches, 4 earned runs on 6 hits including a Lastings Milledge leadoff homer), but as long as his arm feels OK tomorrow, that won't matter.
Chuck - Thursday, May 25 2006 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#147661) #
I should have mentioned that Alfonzo is going to AA.

Good. He'll need to learn the 12 steps to recovery... of his hitting skills.
Named For Hank - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#147672) #
A gift for the Ty Wigginton fan club:


Mike D - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#147675) #
Better than a .915 OPS, Caramon?!?
Leigh - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#147677) #
The gap between Hillenbrand's batting average and on-base percentage right now is a typically dismal .034.  When his batting average regresses to the .290s, his on-base percentage will fall to the .320s.

As I wrote a couple of days ago, Kennedy and Hillenbrand are virtually identical hitters in terms of production (not profile, of course), with Hinske not far behind.  When lefthanded pitching is removed, Hinske appears to be a better hitter than Hillenbrand, as demonstrated by Magpie yesterday.  

The real danger of a Kennedy/Hillenbrand trade is not that Hinske would replace Hillenbrand, it is that it might result in continued regular playing time for Reed Johnson, either due to injury or Gibby's choice.  Shea appears to be a significantly better offensive player than Reed.
Mike D - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#147682) #

If Hillenbrand's average regresses, Leigh.  Not when, but if

I agree that it's likely, and I think Leigh's post is a thoughtful and well-reasoned one.  But the triumphalism (which Leigh does not demonstrate) of Shea-bashers just boggles my mind when he has had a superb offensive season thus far.  His OPS is higher than that of Vlad Guerrero, Eric Chavez, Michael Young and A-Rod -- and none of them have been awful this year.  He has had the hottest streak in baseball save for that of Chris Shelton, whom Shea has substantially out-hit since the first two weeks of the season.  He's hit .411/.446/.678 since April 22.  And it's May 26!  I'll explain in a second why I make a big deal of this.

I've tried making these point in vain before, but I'll make them again:  I think Hillenbrand is not patient enough.  He's a flawed hitter.  He hits sharp ground balls and doesn't run well, which makes him prone to DPs.  He's therefore not a good candidate for a long-term contract.  He was a very poor offensive player in 2002, which makes his critics fans of using "three-and-a-half-year-splits" or career stats to demonstrate his numbers.  Similarly, I am not a member of the Ty Wigginton Fan Club.

But why are facts and real-world performances irrelevant to evaluating personnel decisions?  Comments like "Ty Wigginton should not have even been invited to camp" and "I told you that the Jays should start Jason Phillips over Hillenbrand" are, if you'll forgive my bluntness, totally asinine when both players have performed very well.  If both players were hitting poorly, the posts of vindication would flow like water.  But now that they're hitting well, it still doesn't matter, because we all "know" that this must be fluky if sabermetric dogma doesn't approve of their success.  That's why I make a big deal about his performance.  I cannot stand the ever-present logic of "When I make a prediction, I am always proven to be right, except when I'm not, but that's just luck, so I was still right at the time, and no matter how well he does or how long he does well, I'm still right."  It's "heads I win, tails I still don't lose." 

How can anybody argue with people who are always right by definition?  What's the point of even discussing anything when facts and outcomes can never prove you wrong?   And are we really so comfortable that we've figured everything out about baseball that an unforeseen path to success has to be written off rather than analyzed?

I thought Mike Lowell was finished after seeing him play last year.  I was wrong.  I cannot maintain that the Red Sox aren't morons for trading Marte and playing Lowell, even though at the time I thought it was a mistake on their part.  Mike Lowell has not flipped heads on a coin 20 straight times to have a good season.  He has performed far better than I predicted, thus proving me wrong, at least as of this date.

Getting back to the issue at hand, I agree that you should sell high on Hillenbrand now if you can do so.  But getting a declining Adam Kennedy in his walk year as your return is, in my opinion, not selling all that high, especially when you need to throw in cash to make the deal happen and when you consequently have to press Molina into action to DH against lefties and rest him less. 

I would rather trade ever-mercurial minor league arms for pitching and/or defensive help than to tinker with the offensive depth, which is going great guns and will -- I assure you -- come in handy if and when injuries strike.

Mike D - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#147683) #
Shea's awful season was 2001, not 2002.  My bad.
Jonny German - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#147687) #

But getting a declining Adam Kennedy in his walk year as your return is, in my opinion, not selling all that high, especially when you need to throw in cash to make the deal happen and when you consequently have to press Molina into action to DH against lefties and rest him less.

Maybe JP concurs that Kennedy isn't a great return and that's why it hasn't happened yet. But making this deal would improve the catcher situation, in my opinion. Figueroa would be returned to AAA, and Jason Phillips could come up. I'd play the three catchers like so:

Phillips: 2 starts a week at catcher, facing lefties

Molina: 2 starts a week at catcher v. RH, 2 starts a week at DH v. LH

Zaun: 4 starts a week at catcher v. RH

Plenty of rest for Molina, more playing time for Zaun, no offence lost at DH (Phillips being not as good as Shea v. LH, Hinske being better than Shea v. RH), improved offense in the middle infield with Kennedy replacing Adams, various pinch-hitting options with 3 catchers. 

The questions are: (1) Is  the middle infield defence improved with Hill/Kennedy over Adams/Hill? I think most would say "Absolutely", and we'll have  a much better idea of this in the next couple weeks if we see Hill at short regularly.

(2) Does the arrangement I propose take a big hit in the event of an injury to Hinske? I'm not very concerned about this, as I think John-Ford Griffin would be an adequate short-term replacement, and someone like Matt Stairs would be a fine longer-term replacement.

Mike Green - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#147690) #

Mike D, a declining Adam Kennedy? I see no evidence of that at all. 

This trade will occur if there is a matching of positional needs, and that will depend on Bill Stoneman's view of Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales. 

CaramonLS - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#147694) #
Mike D, you know Hillenbrand is going to regress.  I mean the numbers look sexy now, but he does this every single year - a blazing start and then a stagger across the finish line.  For Shea Hillenbrand's career, April (.883 OPS) holds his best numbers and August (.708)/September (.710) hold his worst.

If Shea Hillenbrand suddenly breaks the trend and ends up bucking the curve, I'll be the first person to come in here and admit my mistake.  Heck I've been wrong this season about Mike Lowell as well - dead wrong - there were the rumors floating around him regarding steriods and I bit.  Initially I blamed it on park factors, where he just crushed all his normal flyouts onto the green monster for doubles, but it appears he has gone beyond that.  No doubt the Monster has helped some, but he is hitting very well regardless.

I feel a Phillips/Hinske strict platoon at DH will out perform Hillenbrand by the end of the season.  I don't think they'd be as good as Hillenbrand has been to this point in the season, but by the finish line, they would be out in front.

Ryan Day - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#147697) #
For Shea Hillenbrand's career, April (.883 OPS) holds his best numbers and August (.708)/September (.710) hold his worst.

That's true... but this year, he's already defied one of his big trends:  As much as he's always had a hot April, he's traditionally slouched to mediocrity in May: 282/312/442 over his career.  This year, however, he's not only continuing his hot start, but he's improving on it: 329/361/500 in April, then 353/389/588 in May.

  If you're going by tradition, Hillenbrand should have turned back into a pumpkin nearly a month ago.
Geoff - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#147698) #
2 starts a week + 2 starts a week + 4 starts a week = 8 starts a week at catcher.
Mike Green - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#147699) #
Geoff, maybe he's a big Beatles fan- "ooh, I need your glove, babe, eight days a week".  Speaking of music, we did not mark Bob Dylan's 65th birthday a couple of days ago nor the passing of Desmond Dekker (known here for "Israelites").  Shocking for a baseball site!


CaramonLS - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#147701) #
Could be Ryan that it might have something to down with the reduced playing time Shea has had this season.  I'm clueless as to why Hitter get off to such torid starts each season and then fall off the map.  You can understand the other way around when it comes to players like VW, so I'll admit I have no real idea of how to explain it.

John Northey - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#147702) #
Shea was talking about doing a better workout last winter and that might have helped his continuing strongly into May.  He is also at an age where career years do happen (31 - peaks tend to occur somewhere between 25 and 32).  He hasn't had a career year yet (OPS outside of rookie year fluctuate between 778 and 812 - career years tend to be 100 OPS points above a players normal level) so this could be it.  Still, I think it would be risky to expect it.

Kennedy has a nice OBP (340+ for the 5th straight season) and plays a more demanding position.  Not much power, but extra OBP would be nice, especially in the middle infield.  If the Angles go for it I'll be happy.  Money traded with Shea to  balance it out is A-OK to me.
Jonny German - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#147703) #

8 starts a week at catcher

Catcher is a tough position!

No? Umm... a lot of doubleheaders?

Yah, I got nothin'. Maybe I meant to have Zaun only start 2 games a week. But I'd rather give him more time than that.

Gerry - Friday, May 26 2006 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#147706) #

Ty Taubenheim was interviewed by 360thepitch's Outsider Radio.  The interview is at minute 28:30 of the show and discusses Ty's call-up, his first start and the fact he has limited vision in one eye.

You can find it here.

Two Out of Three.... | 46 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.