Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Two games in the division last night as Boston beat up on the Orioles and the Yankees couldn't get to Kevin Millwood dropping one to Texas. Leaving the Jays 1.5 games back from Boston, half a game back from New York and four ahead of Baltimore.

Josh Beckett was back to his best last night absolutely dominating the hitters, it helps of course that Baltimore's offense really misses Brian Roberts. Rodrigo Lopez had another awful outing giving up 8 runs in 4 Innings and moving to 1-6 on the season. His fate was sealed at 6:52 last night when I decided not to bench him for my BBFL team, because 'he's got to have a good start sometime right?'

Jordan Bastian has a great piece on the technical changes Alex Rios has made to his swing.
"Toronto hitting coach Mickey Brantley began working with Rios on eliminating a foot tap in his stride. Having a slight tap works as a timing mechanism for hitters, but in Rios' case, it was actually throwing off his timing."
Rance Mulliniks has been talking a lot on the TV broadcasts about how Rios has his legs much wider this year, which makes him lower at the plate and has made his swing shorter and more compact. He is striding forward after a slight backward movement and doesn't lift his body during his swing any more.
The results, of course, speak for themselves.

Larry Parrish gave Frank Catalanotto the idea for the hitting diary he keeps, when Cat was in AA. Geoff Baker goes behind the scenes and looks at what's in them. Cat is 'viewed as an intelligence-gathering master', running into the clubhouse after every at-bat to review video and updating his 200 page hitting diary every day. "When you're not blessed with all the talent in the world, I think you've got to make it up in different areas. I think if I can prepare better than the opposition, then that gives me a little bit of an edge."

The phrase putting his body on the line is over-used in sports, but it really applies to Aaron Rowand. Warning: gruesome picture alert.

Boy Wonder Francisco Liriano has finally been given a place in the Twins rotation, with Carlos Silva taking his 8.80 ERA to the pullpen.

Coming Up:
The good guys are in Anaheim and Colorado this week, then they return to the RC for series against the Devil Rays, the World Champs and the previous World Champs.

Tue: Lilly vs Santana (10:05)
Wed: Janssen vs Escobar (10:05)
Thu: Halladay vs Lackey (10:05)
Fri: Towers vs Cook (9:05)
Sat: TBD vs Francis (8:05)
Sun: Lilly vs Fogg (3:05)

Posted by Gwyn on Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 08:32 AM EDT.

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perlhack - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#146980) #

Alan Schwarz wrote a piece for the New York Times about the use of names and stats in fantasy leagues. There's a case in US courts about this, with MLB trying to prevent non-licenced fantasy leagues from using such information.

The article: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/16/sports/baseball/16license.html">Baseball Is a Game of Numbers, but Whose Numbers Are They?</a>

Chuck - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#146983) #

Rance Mulliniks has been talking a lot on the TV broadcasts about how Rios has his legs much wider this year, which makes him lower at the plate and has made his swing shorter and more compact.

I was always a fan of Mulliniks, the player, since he parlayed modest skills and an impressive work ethic into an unlikely career.

And I am no less a fan of Mullinks, the colour man. Unlike the vast majority of his broadcasting brethren, including Tabler and Candiotti, Mullinks actually has something to offer above and beyond clich�s. While I may disagree with his appreciation of productive outs, that's just nit-picking. He is consistenty insightful. I don't know how long his current stint in the rotation will last (perhaps it's already up?), but I would thoroughly enjoy him being Campbell's fulltime partner.

A pet peeve of mine, during typical broadcasts, is the lack of pitch selection analysis that goes on. Mullinks, however, is always on top of it. When a pitcher allows a hit on an 0-2 count, he comments. During an at-bat, he will comment on the strategy behind a pitch sequence. Perhaps this micro-analysis isn't for everyone, but I enjoy it. Whether you agree with him or not, clearly Mulliniks is always thinking, and that sets him apart.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#146984) #

I agree.

The Mulliniks for Huffman trade wasn't up as one of the options for the best Jay trade, but it was a real good one. He had been a middle infielder for California and Kansas City, who blossomed offensively once he was moved to third. It's a good rule of thumb that successful organizations do not try to stretch the defensive capacities of their position players. I think of Mulliniks when pondering Russ Adams' future (although obviously not imaging him as a third baseman).

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#146986) #

The notable team pitching statistic for the home nine is the HR/Fly. The number (20%) is by far the highest in the league, and would be a very high number for an individual pitcher over a season. It may reflect the strength of the opposition faced to date.

Speaking of which, the major difference between Justin Speier and Vinny Chulk this season (aside from Chulk's lower walk rate) is that Chulk's HR/Fly rate was six times Speier's. There is really little reason to believe that their respective talent levels have changed- Speier's a little better pitcher than Chulk, but not much.

earlweaverfan - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#146993) #

Mike, do I infer from your comments that the HR/Fly ratio is something that is somewhat random in short stretches, so that the difference between Speier and Chulk should even out over the course of the year?

If you are saying that much of it is random, I would find that hard to understand, as it often seems that a fly ball pitcher who is on his game has movement to his pitches, so that batters get underneath those balls just a little bit, while those pitchers that regularly get hit out of the park are grooving something over the plate, and without so much movement.

AWeb - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#146996) #

Speier's a little better pitcher than Chulk, but not much.

I have to disagree with this statement. Speier has been a good reliever for 6 years now. He kept his ERA around 4.00 in Colorado, and around 3.00 in Toronto. His WHIP has been around 1.15, he strikes out around 7.5/9IP, and doesn't walk many. Speier's only major drawback is the homerun, he gives up a lot.

Chulk may improve to Speier's level, but so far, he walks more people, gives up more hits, has a career best ERA of 3.88, and aside from this year (in 14 IP), hasn't struck people out as much at 6/9IP. The only advantage Chulk has (aside from age) is he doesn't seem to as prone to the HR (again, aside from this year). Plus a better nickname.

At some point, results matter. Speier has been a very good reliever for the Jays (except when he tried to close in 2004, as I recall). Chulk was decent the last two years, and has been terrible this year. There's a big spread there, as of now. And it's not all just sample size issues from this year.

Jonny German - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#146997) #

I also believe Speier is a much superior pitcher to Chulk. In addition to the things AWeb mentioned, Speier doesn't get pounded by lefties like Chulk does. Their 2003-2005 splits:

Speier v. Left: .238 / .304 / .421 (349 AB)
Speier v. Right: .229 / .290 / .373 (432 AB)

Chulk v. Left: .292 / .369 / .488 (250 AB)
Chulk v. Right: .233 / .296 / .315 (257 AB)

papagede - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#146998) #

One broadcast, Rance actually did something that really stuck out to me; Jamie asked him a question, and after a brief pause, Rance answered "I don't know". He didn't avoid the question, he didn't ramble on a non-answer or make something up, he simply admitted he didn't know the answer. That impressed me.

To me, Cat seems to have future hitting coach written all over him. He seems to be the kind of player you'd like to stick around the organization after his playing days.

Chuck - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#146999) #

If Chulk's L/R skew is legitimate, and not a small sample aberration, there is still value in such a pitcher. Jeff Nelson was a notorious righty-killer (and vulnerable to LHB) and for several years, Torre was able to leverage Nelson's strengths, minimizing the occasions that Nelson was forced to toss up his frisbees to LHBs in game situations.

Where Speier's "flatness" would allow him to serve as a fine 8th inning pitcher, without concern of whom he had to face, Chulk would have to be coddled, and brought into situations to face strings of RHB, such as in middle relief of a game started by a LHP. While I acknowledge that humans are not Strat-O-Matic cards, such coddling should not be terribly difficult to do in a 7-man pen.

I'm not sure at what point there is a true basis to identify that a pitcher has a legitimate L/R skew and should be used accordingly. Jeff Nelson averaged less than an inning per outing in his career, with his highly restricted usage pattern starting in his second year. Perhaps in his case, the dramatic nature of his pitches made his L/R skew an easy thing to anticipate.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#147001) #

BP has a handy tool for translating statistics into neutral parks. The career results for Chulk and Speier are:

	IP	ERA	K/9	W/9	HR/9
Chulk	232.0	4.50	6.2	3.1	1.0
Speier	615.3	3.39	7.4	2.5	1.0

"A little better" undersells the difference,as AWeb and Jonny have pointed out. My point was that the career numbers better reflect reasonable expectations of them in the remainder of 2006, rather than their ERAs to date.

To answer earlweaverfan, in this case HR/fly for Chulk and Speier in 2006 seems to be at odds with established patterns. Most pitchers settle in at around the 11% mark and there is little evidence that Chulk or Speier is one of those rare pitchers (like Mariano Rivera) who won't.

Wildrose - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#147003) #

I'm not sure at what point there is a true basis to identify that a pitcher has a legitimate L/R skew and should be used accordingly.

In their book , Tango/MGL/Dolphin don't give an actual number for establishing "true" platoon differential for pitchers, but state platoon splits for pitchers are much less variable and can be established earlier than that of hitters. I find it interesting that they noted pitchers like Chulk whose best pitch is a slider that breaks sideways, have more pronounced splits than pitchers like Frasor whose overhand curve breaks downwards (vertically).

Chuck - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#147004) #

I find it interesting that they noted pitchers like Chulk whose best pitch is a slider that breaks sideways, have more pronounced splits than pitchers like Frasor whose overhand curve breaks downwards (vertically).

Without intending to sound snarky, isn't that what you'd expect? The pitchers with the most sideways movement on their breaking balls tend to have the biggest skews, at least if my visual observations and Strat-O-Matic history count for anything. And those with the 12-to-6 curves tend to have much smaller skews, if any.

LHB and RHB see different looking pitches coming from Chulk (a pitch breaking in versus one breaking away). By contrast, to LHB and RHB, Frasor's pitches look alike.

Wildrose - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#147005) #

I think Speier/Chulk have many similiarities, Chulk has a little better fastball, Speier gives up slightly more flyballs, but the big difference is that Speier has a split fingered pitch that tumbles down vertically which he can use against lefties. Chulk really doesn't have a consistent pitch to get lefties out.

HippyGilmore - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#147006) #

With regards to the HR/Fly discussion, Alex Rios is currently hitting 17.2% of his flyballs out, up from 7.8% last year. Is this unsustainable, and if so, where would he be expected to end up taking into account he almost certainly has found a way to increase his power output?

A - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#147007) #

Slightly off topic but an interesting note: I happened to meet Paul Godfrey at a very non-baseball related function last night. He told me that, with the off-day, they won't have to cover for Chacin's missed start and that Gus will make his next scheduled start. I call that good news.

Wildrose - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#147008) #

I know its pretty obvious, but it does have value. Another indication of the ability to get your opposite out, as indicated in "The Book", is the ability to change speeds.

We now have access to minor league split data, by using those numbers you can determine to a degree, what pitch types a hurler has ,and assess somewhat his ability to change speeds. If you don't have this ability, and you have huge platoon splits like Chulk ,you should not be a starter.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#147009) #

HR/fly rates, even over a number of years, do vary greatly for hitters, unlike for pitchers. 5% is common for pop-gun hitters, and 20% is common for power hitters.

Wildrose - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#147011) #

The most pleasant development of this season for me has been the transformation of Alexis Rios .

I think baseball is a much more technical game than most of us realize. Its certainly more than I realized. My oldest son is playing his first year of ball and is fortunate to have a very strong technical coach . I thought I knew the game quite well, but in terms of technique I'm way behind the curve.

Thanks to Mickey Brantley we see the results of strong fundamental coaching with Rios. It's not a case of " growing into his man strength" , but rather I think , much hard work and repetition in the batting cage.

Rios has totally changed his hitting approach compared to 2004. When he first came up he had a very obtuse style. Despite being a larger man he had an inordinate proponderance to spray the ball on the ground to the opposite field. In fact he was second only to Ichiro in ground ball tendency in the A.L., getting 80% of his hits to rightfield. His power was totally neutered.

Rios circa 2006, is an entirely different beast. Pitches on the inner half of the plate, are turned and crushed upon, with some loft on his swing, instead of meekly trying to inside/out the pitch as he did in 2004. Pitches on the outer half of the plate he drives to centre/right field. ( I looked up his MLB spray chart and was pleasantly surprised to find out his BIP distribution was almost 50/50 between R/Left field, he's not a Delgado, Ortiz, Giambi type who pulls the ball constantly.)

The question is can he keep it going? He has hit well before in 2003 in AA , perhaps without the same amount of power, but he did perform at a high level that season. His strikeout/walk ratio, 20/6 ,is a little bit concerning, but when your creaming the ball as hard as he"s been doing, that may be a quibble. If he keeps making adjustments ( I think they may try to crowd him high and inside) hopefully he can keep having success.

Here's his THT chart, note the difference in flyball ratio. I guess you need to be more patient with these 5 tool types.

Wildrose - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#147012) #

Whoops here's the fixed link.

Joanna - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#147013) #

I really like Rance as the colour guy. He was a very smart hitter when he played, and as a result he really understands pitching. I like how calm he is and how he openly speculates about why players do what they do and he's not afraid to admit he was wrong. I like how he mangles his words and guys names. I even like his accent. The only way I'm nostalgic for Batista's reign of terror is for the way Rance said his name "Baaaaaaaaahti-sta", like a sheep. Awesome.

On another note, I can't begin to express my love of that Popeye picture of Frank. It should be used for mugs and fridge magnets and in other various promotional crap. It should be on the side of the Rogers Centre. It should be on the twenty dollar bill (maybe not). Is that one of yours, NFH? It's genius.

Sanjay - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#147017) #

Tue: Lilly vs Santana (10:05)
Wed: Janssen vs Escobar (10:05)
Thu: Halladay vs Lackey (10:05)
Fri: Towers vs Cook (9:05)
Sat: TBD vs Francis (8:05)
Sun: Lilly vs Fogg (3:05)

Before Gustavo got hurt, the Blue Jays were stating that Janssen and Halladay would swap starts so Halladay would be able to pitch on normal rest (Thursday Night) and Janssen would pitch the first game of the Colorado series. Resulting in both pitchers missing starts in front of their hometown crowds ( Halladay - Denver, Colorado / Janssen - LA Area, Calfornia). Now that Gustavo is hurt, Janssen will be able to pitch in front his friends and family.

I would have preferred Janssen pitching in Denver as he does have some hitting abilities (homer in first at-bat in college). I was watching Global Sports a little while ago and they showed Janssen taking some BP and he was hitting it a ton. Interesting tidbit, Janssen's favourite player while in College was fellow Bruin Troy Glaus.

best400 - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#147018) #

Chacin is on the 15 day DL, Blair blog. Big hit to the rotation even if it's only 2-3 starts

Wildrose - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#147020) #

Heres the Blair link, Taubenheim gets the call.

Gerry - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#147022) #

Chacin's DL stint will be back-dated to May 11th so he can come off on May 26th. The Jays need two starts to be covered, this Saturday In Colorado and then a home start against Tampa.

The candidates to start are Ty Taubenheim and Francisco Rosario, both of whom have started this season in AAA. Taubenheim has been starting exclusively while Rosario has been in the Toronto pen. Taubenheim would be the most obvious choice to start, other than teams prefering to break in a pitcher in the bullpen first. Taubenheim pitched 3 innings tonight so he couldn't help the Jays bullpen until Saturday anyway. Rosario might have to be used over the next 4 nights out of the pen so I would assume Taubenheim will be the starter.

Gerry - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#147023) #

Time to correct myself, the Jays need only one replacement start due to an off-day next week.

Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#147024) #

Sorry this is off topic. But with the west coast game tonight, I've been watching the Yankee game, and they've just done something they've only done 3 times in their history. After trailing 9-0 after 2, they've just taken the lead 11-10. Hell of a game. Teixeira running over Posada was fun, too bad he held on to the ball. Interesting to see the final 3 innings before the Jays get fired up vs. the Angels.

Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#147025) #

Time to correct myself as well. The Rangers have retaken the lead. Oh American League, how I love thee. I promise this is my last update. But I suggest tuning in.

Jim - Tuesday, May 16 2006 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#147026) #

There is probably not one person in world who would have predicted that Taubenheim would start a game for the Jays this year when that trade was made.

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