Here's the Win Probabilty Chart for last night's game.

Interesting that Speier had the highest win probabilty average, more so than Roserio who got the win, as he pitched in the most critical situation in the game by getting Melhuse, Johnson and Ellis out in succession with Kielty and Payton on base to start the inning. 

Johnson, of course was the most effective batter.

Heh.. that's really cool about the pink bats.  Here's a pic of them:

Here's  a link to Blair's blog (I hate that word), talking about Ricciardi looking to add another starter. I assume this was written before we knew about Chacin's arm, which only makes the situation look more dire.

Interesting reading!

Blair's blog mentions three teams that the Jays might acquire a pitcher from: KC, Florida, and Pittsburgh.

Is there anyone on those teams that the Jays would want, and who would also be available?  Check out all the starters for those teams who have pitched 5 or more games:

4.00 ERA - Duke - PIT
4.34 ERA - Elarton - KC
4.65 ERA - Snell - PIT
4.89 ERA - Mitre - FLA
4.97 ERA - Vargas - FL
4.97 ERA - Santos - PIT
5.03 ERA - Maholm - PIT
5.15 ERA - Willis - FL
5.32 ERA - Olsen - FL
5.33 ERA - Affeldt - KC
5.76 ERA - Redman - KC
9.76 ERA - Moehler - FL
10.27 ERA - Mays - KC

I suspect that Redman is a prime candidate, as KC will probably blow up soon, and he's had sucess in the past.  At the same time, I'm sure KC would love to get something decent for Elarton, but the Jays should stay away.  They need people who've had sucess in the past.

Dontrelle's always had peripherals that suggest his future may not be as bright as his present, but at the same time, he's also always succeeded.  I'd offer Chacin, McGowan, and maybe Lind or League, see if that starts discussion.

On the other hand (I think this is my third hand) I suspect pitching in the AL East is tougher than the NL Central, NL East and AL Central, although maybe not by as much as we think... NYM and PHI have some pretty solid offences, as do STL and CWS.

My guess would be Affeldt.  JP's always had a man-crush on him.....Remember the Affeldt for Hudson rumours?  I'm sure we're all glad that didn't go through.

You can definitely say Toronto's Johnson was bigger than Oakland's Johnson in the 7th.  That's the web gem of the season as far as I'm concerned.  Instead of the usual one star I put on the scorecard, I put two.  I feel bad I didn't vote for him on the All-Star ballot last night but at least the missus did . I wrote in Cat and Rios instead.  I'm sorry Reed! 

The other key play was his throw to third to cut down Crosby in the 4th.  That stopped what could've been a really big inning for the A's because McGowan was really scuffling after allowing 5 baserunners.  That may have been Johnson's best game since his 2 homer game on Father's Day when he first came up against the Cubs.

Kudos also to Francisco Rosario, that's such a cool name but can anyone agree on how to pronounce his last name, is it Ro-sare-rio or Ro-sarr-rio?  I prefer the latter, it sounds cooler.  It's like a Tomas Kaberle situation.  Still, he was very impressive last night.  His fastball topped out at 94, it seemed faster than that to me, and the slider really had some movement.   It's too bad he botched that double play throw but overall, that was a pretty good outing and he definitely deserved the "W".

And of course, B.J. Ryan continues to be THE MAN.  It's so nice having a real closer and not having to put up with Batista taking 8 minutes between pitches to decide which of his 8 pitches he wants to throw.  Even though he's only been here a month, having Ryan around reminds me of the good ol' days of Henke and Ward.   He definitely has the best theme music of any Toronto closer.  Slipknot - "Duality" has now found a home on my IPOD.

All of this almost made me forget about Overbay's slam but that tends to happen when a 6-0 goes out the window.  Now with Chacin's status up in doubt with his triceps/elbow problem, they need Lilly to pretty much duplicate what he did Saturday against the Angels but hopefully he gets the "W" this time around.  I guess this means Towers gets a stay of execution for the time being.

I must admit that I found the ideas that the Jays were looking to Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Florida. as trading partners, and also that they were dangling Shea Hillenbrand, didn't sit particularly well together.  Hillenbrand is on a 1 year contract and will be a free agent at the end of the season.  His contract is $5.8 million.  KC, Pitt and Fla. have no realistic hope of competing in 2006, and Hillenbrand, one would think, would not be a valuable asset to them. I suppose that some kind of three-way trade with a contending team also involved might be possible.

To be fair, Blair's blog also mentioned shortstops.  Jack Wilson for prospects makes some sense.  Not sure how KC or Florida would fit in, though.

Anyone cutting work to attend the getaway-day game at lunchtime?

Theo and I are meeting Mrs. Hank down there -- we're either going to try out the Family Zone or sit down in the nice seats.  Depends how far I can stretch our dollars.

Naturally, Theo and I are in matching jerseys and caps like any good loser dad/son team.

Florida and Kansas City make sense, but I highly doubt that Pittsburgh will be trading any of their young "veterens" (i.e. Bay, Wilson, Gonzalez, Castillo).  While it would be nice to dream, Pittsburgh is trying to build from within, like the Jays did, so I doubt they would part with any of those building blocks.

On the Adams note, I think that Butters can get him turned around during the season.  Give him a week off (with Jonny-Mac playing) to work on the side with Butters, and it will come back.  As far as hitting in the middle infield, I tend to think that both Adams and Hill are letting their defense keep their minds off their offence...especially Hill, who looks like he's just trying to have the ball hit his bat, not actually drive the ball.

Jack Wilson for prospects makes some sense.

Would have made some sense, before the Pirates signed him in February to a 3-year $20M extension covering 2007-2009. This guy is not significantly better than John McDonald, nevermind $15M better.

"Would have made some sense, before the Pirates signed him in February to a 3-year $20M extension covering 2007-2009. This guy is not significantly better than John McDonald, nevermind $15M better."

I'm not sure about that.  Wilson hits a fair bit better than Johnny Mac and has been to an All-Star game.  I think the money is a complete non-issue to JP, particularly if he's also dumping Hillenbrand on someone, so I don't think it will influence the decision making.

If Dustin McGowan wants to stay in the big leagues much longer, he should watch Francisco Rosario pitch. Rosario showed everything you wanted to see on the mound: he was confident, he stayed low in the zone except when he wanted some high heat, and most of all, he wasn't afraid to throw a strike. Everything I've seen McGowan throw so far has tailed out of the zone -- he's hoping to get batters to chase his breaking stuff, but if he won't come into the zone and challenge him, they won't bother. McGowan doesn't appear to trust his stuff; Rosario does, and that's the difference thus far.

Roario benefited, certainly, from the umpire's willingness to call the outside strike. But he made the batters swing and miss several times, and that establishes in everyone's minds -- batter and umpire -- that he has the credentials to get that call. When (if) McGowan does the same, he'll start making progress.

Jack Wilson has had 1 good season in his 6 year MLB career, but is off to a decent start this year. 

3 years, 20 million dollar investment?  Not a chance. 

We don't need another guy who can hit lefties, he has a career 660 OPS vs. RHP - which is about 88 points lower than Adams just for comparison.

Johnny Mac has a career 585 OPS vs. RHP and probably provides much better defense at short (I haven't seen Wilson play so I'm not sure).

My idle speculation leads me to Craig Counsell.  The D'Backs have Stephen Drew ready to step in at short some time this season.  In fact, many felt that Drew could have made the team out of spring training.  Counsell won't play 2B for the DBacks with the ODog there.  So, it seems to me, Counsell can be had.  Of course, the DBacks have no use for Shea Hillenbrand so they'd be after some pitching.

Johnny Mac has a career 585 OPS vs. RHP and probably provides much better defense at short (I haven't seen Wilson play so I'm not sure)

Jack Wilson might be the best defensive shortstop in baseball.  I'd say it's between Juan Uribe, Neifi Perez and Wilson and it's awfully close to call.  Whatever he could contribute with the stick is almost secondary.  (The idea that Omar Vizquel is a better shortstop than Wilson isn't really credible to me...)

John Dewan, for what it's worth, has Adam Everett as #1 in baseball, with Jack Wilson second.

Well, if the Blue Jays have come to the decision that Adams isn't going to cut it (and who knows), then I can see Jack Wilson as a positive addition. Yes, he's not much of a hitter (though much better than McDonald), but he's an outstanding defensive shortstop. The Blue Jays don't have a Jeter type coming up, and I doubt one will become available as a free agent. A deal involving Hillenbrand (to even up the salaries exchanged) and a prospect to Pittsburgh, maybe including Adams as well makes sense.

Pittsburgh would be on the hook for Shea's salary this year, but they are off the hook for Wilson in the next 3 years. If the Jays fancy themselves as contenders, then I'd do it. It comes down to their assessment of Adams and the fixability of his defensive issues.

 

The Score reports that Frasor has been recalled with McGowan sent down.

The Pirates are a messed-up organization, and I sure wouldn't have given Wilson that contract extension. But they did, and they clearly view him as part of their future. They're not going to turn around now and deal him away -- not for the likes of Shea Hillenbrand, in any event. It would take a stud pitching prospect to make that deal sufficiently attractive, and the Jays don't have any of those at the moment.

Adams is not a great shortstop -- as I've said elsewhere, he's ordinary offensively and a notch below that defensively -- but he's better than what we've seen this past week or so. We're not seeing a guy levelling off at his true performance plateau, we're seeing a young player losing the confidence that he can play shortstop in the majors. Confidence, like speed, can't be taught, and while Butterfield et al are no doubt working with him, Adams is the only one who can make the decision to believe in himself. I'm all for putting a veteran into his spot for the time being, and that's exactly why the team brought back John McDonald over the winter. I don't think bringing in a $20M replacement is the proper response right now.

Nobody's running away with the AL East -- Toronto still has time to try some more internal solutions. Casey Janssen has looked promising, and Rosario has impressed in very short stints. Shaun Marcum is still a possibility, as is Josh Banks. The Jays should be convinced they have no decent internal options before going outside -- wasn't this exactly why JP spent so much effort loading up on college pitchers in the draft, so he'd have rotation options in this kind of situation? Remember, by Canada Day, Burnett will be back in the rotation, Chacin could be just fine, and Towers can only rebound from the hole he's in. It's still time for measured responses.

 

Dave Studeman's 'Ten Things I Didn't Know Last Week' is the best regular baseball column going. All sort of good stuff in there again today. Including a reference to a post at Primer from someone who might have been, wisely, paying attention to Leigh.

Quite similar, eh?  He (the BTF poster, not Studeman) could have at least attributed it and mentioned Batter's Box.  Independant creation my ass.

"Confidence, like speed, can't be taught, ..."

 I was interested/amused to read the other day that the Yankees have a "Director of Optimal Performance", Chad Bohling, who deals with such matters as confidence-building for them.

 Nice title.

With Thomas going down, perhaps the A's will be interested in dealing pitching for a hitter, maybe Shea or Eric.

But is a guy like Brad Halsey more attractive than minor league options such as Rosario, Marcum or Taubenheim? I'll put my bet on Hinske for Halsey.

Wilner just said the MRI on Chacin was back and the results were that he had a Strained Forearm (same injury as halladay), and a strained ulnar collateral ligament (same injury as burnett).  He's listed as day to day still, Wilner speculated that Taubenheim or Rosario might make his next start if he isn't  able to make it.

There was actually an article in the Boston Globe this past weekend about the Red Sox's version of that (which I'd link to if I could find it).

I don't know if it's the case now but I know the Jays brought in someone a few times a year to work with the team when Tosca was managing.  I suspect that organizations that don't have one now may be in the minority.

would the Jays be able to appeal for an extra year like Rosario

They could get an extra year for Rosario, who missed a whole year, but I don't know if they need one because I don't know if years in the Dominican League count against a player's option years, and I don't know if Rosario was on the 40-man roster in 2003 when he was injured.

With Thomas going down, perhaps the A's will be interested in dealing pitching for a hitter, maybe Shea

While Billy Beane acquiring Shea Hillenbrand could potentially benefit the Jays, that benefit would be overshadowed by the hole torn in the time-space continuum and the imminent end of the world.  It would be like one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse taking McFly's mother to the Enchantment Under the Sea dance.

C'mon, Leigh.  Billy just drafted a whole boatload of high school pitchers.  If JP offered to send some cash with Shea, I am sure that Beane would entertain the idea. 

 

It would be like one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse taking McFly's mother to the Enchantment Under the Sea dance.

And when will that be held this year?

Let's hope this extra post solves the formatting issues.  I'll just say that Leigh's comment spawned weird and uncomfortable images of Bobby Kielty trying to bat with his hand starting to disappear.

I'll just say that Leigh's comment spawned weird and uncomfortable images of Bobby Kielty trying to bat with his hand starting to disappear.

This would actually improve Kielty as a hitter, at least left-handed, since it would, I presume, forbid him from swinging.

And what did happen to Thomas? I didn't see it.

As we discovered during his stint in Toronto, his hands have long ago disappeared.

How quickly we forget!  Billy Beane's prize midseason acquisition in 2003 was none other than Jose Guillen, he of the (gasp!) high batting average and low walk rate. 

One year earlier, there had been the trade of Jeremy Giambi, which caused numerous shorts in the circuitry that exists in the chests of Baseball Primer readers where most people possess human hearts.

If JP offered to send some cash with Shea, I am sure that Beane would entertain the idea.

Of course he would.   I guess I didn't contemplate the scenario of Shea plus cash for nothing.  I could be wrong - I often am - but I presume that Ricciardi values Hillenbrand more than Beane values Hillenbrand.  In order for a trade to happen, then, the package coming to Toronto would have to consist of one or more assets that Ricciardi values more than Beane to a comparable degree as the Hillenbrand perception of value difference.  I could be wrong, but at least I've just constructed one of the least clear sentences in Box history.

That Guillen trade turned out to be a bit of a stinker:  he never hit for the A's and Aaron Harang would look a fair bit better than Kirk Saarloos right about now.

I should add that while Shea The A would not bend as many dimensions as Leigh suggested, I'm sure Leigh agrees with me that he'd likely be a very poor fit in Oakland with spacious gaps and plenty of foul territory.  He's hit poorly there over his career in about 60 PA.

Blair's latest.  Sounds like Chacin will hit the DL.

For anyone who has ESPN Classic ... Carlos' 4 bomb game is on at 9pm.

I went to last night's game, and forgot the Rule Of Two Sweatshirts: for a night game with the roof open in the spring, if you're sitting in the fifth deck, calculate the number of sweatshirts you'd ordinarily wear, then add two. You'll need them.

Because I forgot this rule, by the fifth inning I was risking hypothermia by staying out in the grandstand. But I didn't want to leave the game, as Real Fans never leave the game. So I puppied out and watched the last four innings on a TV set, returning to the field only for the seventh-inning stretch and the top of the ninth. I apologize to you all for my lack of intestinal fortitude.

As for the game itself: when a player makes a truly great play in the field, they should subtract one from the club's error total. Call it a Negative Error, or something like that. So the Jays would have had zero errors last night - one by McDonald, and -1 on that great catch by Johnson. You could even put it in pitching lines: unearned runs, earned runs, and potential earned runs saved (PEARS). And, of course, Sparky was the first batter up in the next inning. And he singled.

I like the idea of bringing B.J. into the game in the eighth in key situations. So far, there hasn't been a risk of overuse, as the Jays have virtually never needed a closer on consecutive days. But I'm wondering: what happens if the Jays start playing a lot of close games? How resilient is Toronto's new closer, anyway? (Speaking of which: am I the first one to realize that someone with the initials "B.J." was surely destined to play for the Blue Jays?) And what happens if Ryan comes into the game in the 8th, and the Jays score seven runs in the bottom of the 8th? Do you leave him in to collect what is now a meaningless save?

Sorry to hear about Chacin's injury. He'll have to apply his new cologne with his right hand. The slogan for Chacin, the cologne for men: "A curveball for the senses." That slogan makes my day. (I'm not knocking Gus - he's cool enough to have his own cologne. But it wouldn't work for most pitchers - I can't imagine David Wells, say, offering his own male fragrance product. ("Boomer: the cologne that smells like a beer [belch] in an elevator.")

At this point, I think you have to remove Towers from the rotation, even if Chacin goes down. I'd give Rosario and Taubenheim starts - Rosario looked good in last night's outing, and Taubenheim has an ERA of 1.24 in Syracuse. Plan C is David Purcey, who has an ERA of 1.88. The Jays have lots of young replacement-level pitching, and don't need to keep throwing a guy with a 10+ ERA out there game after game.

By the way: each and every one of you reading this should take a look at the Blue Jays' batting statistics, and take a good look at what Toronto's outfielders are doing. As of this morning, the Jays' top four outfielders were batting .389, .379, .356 and .342. (And, if you're one of those people who are mortally offended by the idea of using batting average as a meaningful statistic: their OPS values are .951, 1.088, 1.042, and 1.027. Troy Glaus, who is having a perfectly fine year, is sixth on the club in OPS right now, trailing the outfielders and Zaun.) Wow. Cowabunga. Holy [belch]!