Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - TDIB: Tuesday edition

So, what's going on ?

Let's get to the improtant stuff first. A.J Burnett's injury is just what the team expected. The pain he felt in Friday's start was another case of scar tissue breaking loose and there was no structural damage. There has been no timetable yet set for his return, although Burnett favours taking things a bit more slowly this time. The good news is Dr Andrews informed J.P that 'the ligaments in Burnett's elbow were strong'

Richard Griffin talks about Burnett and puts things in perspective with the terribly sad news of the passing of Rondell White's friend and inspiration Anthony Carola.

Why did I not get the memo about Cory Lidle becomain a power pitcher ? He struck out ten real live guys with bats in their hands last night, ten!. His K/BB ratio is now at 27/3 and he's striking out over one hitter an Inning, now being Cory of course he still has an ERA over 5, but still.

Top prospect Howie Kendrick was called up from AAA by the Angel's last night. Kendrick was the Angel's #2 prospect according to BA, and that's against some very stiff competition. Adam Kennedy is making nice about the new kid, who figures to be playing his position next year. Kennedy can afford to, he's more than good enough to sign a very nice free agent contract over the winter.

Alex Rios' hot start will come to an end and "it would be a bit of a surprise to see him reach 25 homers this season." says Dayn Perry as he looks at some players who have started the season on fire, but who won't keep it up.

Tonight: The 11-9 Orioles are in town, it's Rodrigo Lopez against Chacin at 7:07. Lopez has an ERA over 7 and has given up 7 dingers already, somewhere Troy Glaus is smiling. Over at the Orioles Hangout the more optimistic O's fans are thinking that missing Halladay gives them a chance to sweep. Do not take the fighting Jays lightly!

Posted by Gwyn on Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 08:58 AM EDT.

TDIB: Tuesday edition | 38 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#145766) #

The THT card for Rios is interesting. His GB rate is way down, and his HR/F is way up. This does speak to a successful mechanical adjustment. He has not been particularly lucky- a BABIP of .361 with his power, speed and line-drive rate is, if anything, low. The HR/F rate is probably not sustainable (which is Perry's point), but that may not matter. Rios can be a very effective player hitting 20-25 homers in a season. With his ability to put the bat on the ball, Rios has a chance to be a batting champ, as his idol Clemente was perennially.

js_magloire - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#145777) #

I won't make predicitions, but I would really like for the Orioles to take 2 of 3. It has been assumed that we will be fighting to stay out of last place while Toronto may be ready to compete with the big boys. This is a good chance for us to show that the presumed "pecking order" is incorrect.

I think this is a good point. Never underestimate any team, everyone was saying Orioles would be last, but they've got good pitching and good hitting, and have improved 200% off the field from last year (a non-slumping Tejada can only help their cause). We should be awfully wary of them. With that said, I know Bedard is a good pitcher, but our lineup is so good against lefties, I think we could get to him.

Mike D - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#145778) #

Who'd-a thunk it? Over at BP, the Jays are tied for third in the AL in Defensive Efficiency at .717 with the Angels; the White Sox are only slightly better at .718, and the Tigers are tops at .739.

I'm open to theories, but mine is that Troy Glaus has played a better third base than anyone (including me) predicted.

Greg - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#145779) #

It is websites like that one that make me glad battersbox exists.

Predicting sweeps based on...well...if someone reading that can tell me what it's based on I'd like to know. Three cheers for actual relevant discussion. I will now withdraw back into the shadows and continue reading the best baseball website out there.

Frank Markotich - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#145780) #

Yes, Mike D, for some reason a lot of people here seemed to believe that Glaus was some kind of immobile slug who ran like Bengie Molina's grandmother and who stood at third base waving futilely at anything not hit directly at him. You know, not as valuable as future Hall-of-Famer Orlando Hudson.

sweat - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#145781) #

I think the Jays need to talk to the umpire before Bedard pitches, and remind him that Bedard is only allowed a specific amount of time for each pitch. Apart from ending his slothliness (which is incredibly annoying), it might also throw him off his game.

Gwyn - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#145782) #

Apart from ending his slothliness

Have you watched Bedard this year ?

I saw his start against Tampa bay, he was working considerably faster, at the very obvious prompting of Ramon Hernandez. Apparently Mazzone has and Hernandez have taken on a tandem job to make Erik speed up and he has bought into it.

Pistol - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#145783) #

The Jays are tied for third in the AL in Defensive Efficiency at .717. I'm open to theories, but mine is that Troy Glaus has played a better third base than anyone (including me) predicted.

Aaron Hill seems to be doing just fine defensively. I think the anticpated dropoff from Hudson was overstated by many. Now he just has to start hitting. Despite his low average he's only stuck out 3 times so far this year which I think may make him hit unlucky given his past.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#145785) #

I haven't checked the numbers on Hill but my impression is that he hits a lot of fly balls. He needs to either get a lot stronger or take some of the upper-cut out of his swing.

Maldoff - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#145786) #

Does anyone else worry about Casey Janssen starting in the majors already? He was hot-shotted from Low-A to AA last year, and while he performed phenominaly in Lansing and Dunedin, he wasn't a complete stud at New Hampshite (1.233 WHIP in 43 innings). And while he seems to be missing a lot of bats this year at Syracuse (1.100 WHIP), he seems to be giving up a lot of runs, as evidenced by an ERA of 4.05. I just don't think he's quite ready to make the leap to the majors yet, although I thought the same about Chacin, and look at him now!

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#145787) #

BP has Troy Glaus fielding at a 126 rate (i.e. better than Brooks Robinson in his best year), as opposed to his career 99 rate. To me, he's perfectly fine but a little short of where Koskie was last year. Russ Adams seems to have taken a small step forward, and McDonald has played in 3 full games out of 17 and been his typical strong defensive self.

There are some oddities in BP's statistics. The Jay team page shows every pitcher, including B.J. Ryan, as below replacement level this year. But, the Hardball Times also shows the Jays' DER as above league average. That, frankly, surprises me, but I suppose that if McDonald continues to play as much as he has, and Adams continues his improvement and Hill stays healthy, it could last the whole season

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#145788) #

Janssen has now had 12 starts above single A. That's very low for a major league debut. Chacin had spent a full season at double A as a starter and several as a reliever/swingman prior to his debut. There's a lot of debate about the need for triple A experience, but not much debate about the need for double A experience for pitchers.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#145791) #

In his first start this season Janssen gave up 3 runs in 5 innings on 7 hits. In his second start he gave up 6 runs, including 2 home runs, in 5 innings on 9 hits. His ERA was 8.10. In his third start Janssen pitched seven shutout innings with only 3 hits allowed and on Sunday he pitched three more shutout innings. Janssen's ERA might be over 4 but his last two starts have been very good.

Other than picking someone from the major league bullpen the Jays had 3 real choices for replacing Burnett. Purcey and Banks need more time at AAA. Taubenheim was an option, he is pitching well, but he is new to the organization and was never a highly rated prospect, so he could possibly be overachieving right now. Francisco Rosario was the other option and while he is pitching well he still profiles better as a bullpen guy. Rosario has an excellent fastball and a good slider. He might not have all the pitches to survive the third time through a major league order. Rosario has often struggled in his first inning as a starter and it might be better for him to debut in the major leagues as a reliever. Janssen has been praised by the organization for his presence on the mound and his ability to locate his pitches. He has been placed ahead of Banks by the organization since last summer, even though he has less pro experience. Janssen will mix his pitches and work on keeping the hitters off balance.

Remember this is most likely a 2 or 3 game audition so even if he is not successful this time out look for him to get another shot in 5 days time.

#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#145792) #

I think the Jays need to talk to the umpire before Bedard pitches, and remind him that Bedard is only allowed a specific amount of time for each pitch.

I had the chance to see Bedard pitch live a week and a half ago in my first trip to Camden Yards. It's so worth the visit, I rate it slightly behind PNC Park in Pittsburgh as the best I've seen. I like the RC and the improvements but we built that place 3 years too early.

Anyways, the pride of Navan, Ontario went a strong 8 innings against the Angels and despite some early inning troubles, he settled in nicely, stranding a leadoff triple to Tim Salmon in the 2nd. I didn't think he took forever to pitch as the game was less than 2 and a half hours. Believe me, I was disappointed about that. I didn't want to leave the park, I was hoping for extra innings.

The O's were down 2-0 but they rallied for Bedard and Chris Ray slammed the door shut in the 9th to preserve the 3-2 win over Bartolo Colon and the Halos. Bedard and Ray can definitely bring the heat, throwing 95-96 MPH fairly consistently. They're not missing B.J. Ryan, that's for sure.

jjdynomite - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#145794) #

Some thoughts...

1. Griffin's article mentions Sirotka, Caudill et al as not making as much as AJ combined but conveniently leaves out Joey "I'd Rather Be In" Hamilton, who, according to Baseball-Almanac, over 1999-2001 made 4.25, 5.5 and 7.25. Given the rise of the Canadian dollar from '01 to '06, Hamilton's 2001 salary is almost comparable by itself to AJ's salary average.

2. It is pretty funny that the Perry overachieving article has Mesa as #1 and Vizquel as #2. I wonder if "anger" can be quantified as a motivating factor. Google jose mesa omar vizquel for some fun reading and check out Sunday's Giants/Rockies game. In all seriousness, I can understand putting 40-year-olds up there but who knows if relatively young guys like Shelton (25), Maroth (28) and Wigginton (28) are not all reaching their peak; they've also all played for mediocre to crappy teams the past couple of years who are all predicted to do better. Yes, Rios included.

3. It is certainly frustrating that Bush is in Milwaukee and Janssen is a crapshoot to either be a Gus or Gaudin. The only bright side, if there is one, is the solid pitching by other AAA pitchers so far, from Taubenheim to Banks to Rosario. I really hope our 5th starter doesn't become a sinkhole since there are no days off for the next 20 days. The Jays already apparently have a sinkhole at #4. On a side note, how much more patience is their going to be with Towers? Sure he's faced the Chisox and the Bosox (twice) but that's life in the big leagues; he's been even worse than Downs.

Jordan - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#145799) #

Janssen has been praised by the organization for his presence on the mound and his ability to locate his pitches. ... Remember this is most likely a 2 or 3 game audition so even if he is not successful this time out look for him to get another shot in 5 days time.

This is also an organization that likes to see what its prospects can do in the line of fire. If you thrive from the start, like Gustavo Chacin, you'll be kept around for a long time. If you struggle in your debut, like Gabe Gross, you won't. Fans' expectations for Janssen will probably be modest, but I'll get JP Ricciardi will be watching Thursday's start very carefully.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#145803) #

Dave Bush's career ERA+ in the equivalent of one major league season is 116. He had an excellent minor league record. He has been healthy. So far this season, in very limited action, his K rate is up. Of course, he may flame out, but how many pitchers can this not be said of?

It's nice to see old friends, and new rooting interests like Troy Glaus, doing well.

Rob - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#145808) #

More on Bush:

I only checked out his THT player card recently and was pleased to see that some of his statistics confirmed my view that last year was not "all his fault," so to speak.

He had a HR/F rate of 14.2, which is a large variation from the expected 11-12. His 20 HR allowed in just 136 innings seemed high to me then, and it still does now (for comparison, Chacin gave up the same number in 67 more innings). His K rate dropped a bit, but so did his walk rate. Ditto for LD% (2.5 in the bad direction) and GB% (4.3 in the good direction). Overall, I maintain that he would have been a fine starter for Toronto this year. I have no desire to revisit the Overbay trade, but losing Bush was my least favourite part of it.

Incidentally, he's not pitching as well this year as he "should" be: more of his baserunners have scored, which is different than his 2004 and 2005 seasons, which were nearly identical in that regard. This is also the first year of his career that his ERA is lower than his expected ERA. Geez, what are the odds that a 26 year old pitcher would improve in what expects to be his first full season in the majors?

Mike D - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#145811) #

Last comment on Bush (a Friend of Batter's Box, and someone I'm rooting for).

Last season, in four starts against the Red Sox, he lasted 16 total innings, posting a 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. In three starts against the Yankees, he lasted 15 2/3 innings, posting a 5.17 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Yes, this isn't an enormous sample size. But yes, it will help any pitcher to leave the AL East and go to the NL Central. It's just a fact.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#145814) #

It is true that leaving the AL East for the NL Central will help a pitcher; actually moving to the NL West will help even more despite Coors.

HoJu - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#145819) #

Jays Minor League Pitcher Edward Rodriguez has been suspended 50 games.

BCMike - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#145825) #

I haven't checked the numbers on Hill but my impression is that he hits a lot of fly balls. He needs to either get a lot stronger or take some of the upper-cut out of his swing.

According to THT, Hill's BABIP is .228 his GB% is 52.6% and line drive pct is 12.1%. I would say he's been very unlucky, but at the same time he hasn't been hitting the ball very hard. Compared to last year his fly ball rate is the same ~35%, but his line drive rate is down 9.7%.

That's what the numbers say. From watching him it looks like his back foot is moving too much and he's off balance which might be why he's not hitting the ball hard. I don't remember if he was like that last year, so I can't say for sure.

And it would probably help if he was a little more patient (0 walks!). Maybe he's been hanging around Hillendbrand a little too much ;)

earlweaverfan - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#145826) #

jjdynomite said: "I really hope our 5th starter doesn't become a sinkhole since there are no days off for the next 20 days. The Jays already apparently have a sinkhole at #4. On a side note, how much more patience is their going to be with Towers?"

One of the things that separates the quick from the dead in managing baseball clubs is patience with pitchers that you know have shown more in past than they are showing now. For example, I remember a number of times when my baseball hero Earl used to overlook a string of lousy outings from one or more of his pitchers at the beginning of the season, and just kept sending them out there to turn it around, regain theirconfidence, and deliver big time down the stretch. I wondered why at first, but it was hard to argue with the results he so often achieved. (Maybe this wasn't virtue; he may have doubted his minor league alternatives.)

Patience is especially important for starting pitchers, who will have several games to ride the bench and think about their last disaster; they can quickly begin to doubt their abilities. Nothing is more essential than having the manager send repeated signals of confidence in you by sending you out there no matter what happened last time or the time before that. Patience is even more helpful when you have a smart pitching coach capable of seeing where a struggling pitcher is going wrong and helping him set it right.

Gibbons has exercised great patience already with his bullpen and reaped the benefits very quickly. Last year he stuck with Speier through thin and there was plenty of thick as the season wore on. In the first week this year, Chulk, Frasor, and Walker looked pretty hopeless, and already they seem to be returning to last year's form. Towers will also pay a dividend if he is treated with genuine patience, and I think that the Jays have enough issues with Burnett that they will be forced to be patient with Towers. Of course, Josh will never be a star, and if Purcey, Banks et al keep maturing, he could become trade bait next winter.

Of course, the other knack lies in deciding sooner rather than later when you have a pitcher who has a kind of 'governor' in his head, preventing him from delivering to his factory-rated performance potential. I wonder about that - often - with Ted Lilly, and for me I just hope that AJ is not cut from the same cloth. I would be thrilled to be proven wrong with both of them.

Joe - Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#145827) #

For those looking for ammunition in the Fight Against Baseball Fans Saying We, I give you Orioles Hangout.

Our offense is still gonna struggle
We got swept by Boston
We swept the Jays early in the season
we can win the opener

I didn't realize that the O's employed so many forum denizens...

Pistol - Wednesday, April 26 2006 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#145841) #

And it would probably help if (Hill) was a little more patient (0 walks!). Maybe he's been hanging around Hillendbrand a little too much.

Well, he's only struck out 3 times so I don't think he's been impatient. I think it's more that pitchers have no reason not to throw him a strike right now, and when Hill swings he doens't miss too often.

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