In 2005 the Jays scored 775 runs, good for 5th in the league, although they were only barely above the league average of 771. The Jays were ninth in batting average, 4th in on-base percentage and tenth in slugging.
For 2006 the Jays have added Bengie Molina, Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus to the everyday lineup. Orlando Hudson and Corey Koskie are the notable departures. Here's what it looks like by position:
Position 2006 2005 C Molina/Zaun Zaun 1B Overbay Hinske 2B Hill Hudson SS Adams Adams 3B Glaus Koskie LF Cat/Johnson Cat/Johnson CF Wells Wells RF Rios/Hinske Rios DH Hillenbrand Hillenbrand
Will the Jays offense be better in 2006 than in 2005 and how should John Gibbons platoon or arrange his lineup to maximize the run scoring potential?
Mike G - It should be better, and score about 800 runs if they have average health. I would advise having Hill and Overbay as the top 2 hitters in the lineup, but the differences between Hill and Adams and between Catalanotto and Overbay are not huge. My preference for Hill over Adams at the top of the lineup is definitely subjective.
Pistol - I think the offense should definitely improve. In fact, with the exception of LF where Cat was healthy last year, there's not a spot in the lineup that shouldn't be the same or better this year. Molina helps the overall catcher production, Overbay is an improvement on Hinske at 1B, Hill should be at least a push with Hudson, Adams should improve from experience if nothing else, and Hinske added to Rios will help RF out. And of course Glaus is a huge upgrade over what the Jays got out of 3B last year.
The other thing that impresses me about the lineup is that there's a whole lot of depth. If someone gets injured there's someone else that can step in without too much of an overall drop. The area most susceptible to a severe injury is probably Hill and Adams in the middle infield. Hillenbrand could cover 3rd or 1st if the starters were hurt and Rios or Johnson could cover in centre if Wells was injured. Most importantly, if Zaun or Molina were injured the Jays have someone capable to handle the job full time. Last year when Zaun was hurt it wasn't pretty. This year the team can handle that happening.
Gerry - It is interesting that the Jays scored so many runs last season becuase none of the hitters had a great year, as Pistol noted above. Frank Catalanotto was the best hitter according to Lee Sinins' RCAA and Shea Hillenbrand was second best at 4 RCAA. Vernon Wells did not have a good 2005, Zaun regressed some from 2004, Adams had the usual rookie ups and downs, and Rios struggled. If a couple of those guys step up, and the new guys perform according to plan, the Jays could score 830 runs.
I think fans will have some frustration with this team in 2006 when they see how many double plays the hitters hit into. The team is not quite a bunch of slow white guys but it's close.
I think Gibbs has basically set his lineup, Adams or Hill at the top, depending on the pitcher, then Cat, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hilly, Molina and Rios, followed by the other middle infielder. You could bunch your lefties in the 1 and 2 spots but that would leave you exposed to a LOOGY later in the game.
Rob - I think Molina will definitely improve on Zaun from last year, but something about the signing still bothers me. I suppose he's a better option than Zaun, being three years younger with more offensive upside, but I don't expect Molina to hit near .300 again and slug near .450. The rest of the lineup should be fine -- Adams and Hill will make second/third-year steps forward. I don't think the LOOGY is too much of an issue with Adams/Cat at the top because Johnson frequently comes in for defensive purposes in the late innings anyway; this way, he gets an at-bat.
As for the double plays, Gerry's not kidding. Three year averages: Overbay 12, Rios 14, Molina 16, Wells 17, Hillenbrand 20...it won't be pretty.
I agree with Pistol on the depth issue, and hopefully the days of "Berg LF", "Gomez 1B" and "Huckaby Anywhere" are over. 800 runs sounds good to me; I'll say 820.
Pistol: One thing to consider is that the Jays scored more runs last year than their results would indicate. BP had their team EqA at 743 runs versus the actual 775 runs so that's probably a better starting point. 800 runs is a realistic goal to shoot for.
Joe: I think everyone believes that the 2006 Jays should be better offensively than the '05 vintage. Glaus, in particular, will be an offensive upgrade over Hill+Koskie+Hillenbrand '05, and Hill should be an upgrade over Hudson. The question, of course, is whether that is good enough. I'm leaning towards "not" — on their own, Glaus, Overbay, and Molina won't be enough to bring the Jays over the top. What they really need is not only the new guys to a) not regress, and b) not get hurt, they need one of Hinske or Rios (preferably both) to really step it up. Results out of spring training are encouraging, but spring training don't mean nothin' (see Gabe Gross, 2005).
Magpie - I'm with Pistol - they aren't really starting from last year's total. Just as they were unlucky in the wins they got from the runs they produced, they were lucky with the runs they got out of their offensive components. They're working on upgrading an offense that produced at about 750 runs worth.Glaus, obviously, is the big upgrade. Lots of homers and lots of walks. Simple and effective. But if they are going to make it to 800 runs, they need one other player to make a significant step forward from last year. It could be Wells, playing closer to his 2003 form - it could be a young hitter developing. As for that, Adams and Rios look like the best candidates, and I think Adams could be the one. Watching this team last year, I formed a very strong, albeit very subjective impression, that no one on this team had better at bats. If Adams could get his OBP up to around .350, and his slugging up to around .450 - I don't think either would be a shocking development - he'd be very close to matching what Catalanotto did last year. When Cat was arguably the team's best hitter.
Dave Till: I don't have a real feel for this offense. Too many things have changed. What will Glaus do? Overbay? Molina? Hill, now that the league has seen him? Hinske+Rios, as opposed to Rios? I think the bats will be a little better - there aren't any automatic outs in the lineup - but that's just a guess.
Leigh: I think that we can look forward to increased offensive output from 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and RF. LF depends entirely on Catalanotto's health - if he can play against righties all season then that position can be added to the 'likely to improve' list. If Glaus provides Wells with Carlosian protection, then we can add CF to the list.
The numbers 36 and 39 represent the gaps between career batting average and career on-base percentage for Hillenbrand and Molina, respectively. Neither player has ever deviated significantly from those numbers in any one season, save for Hillenbrand's bean-laced campaign in 2005. Those gaps are constant and reliable. The practical consequence is the fact that each of Hillenbrand and Molina must hit for a .285 batting average, at the bare minimum, to avoid becoming a serious (sub .320 OBP) drain on the offence. We know that Hillenbrand is up to the task, having hit better than .285 in three of his five seasons. Molina has hit over .285 only once (though he has hit .281 twice), in 2005, which yielded a career best .336 OBP. My best guess is that Molina's batting average drops to its more traditional .280 level, which will put his OBP in the .315-.320 range. Given Molina's power (we can expect him to slug something like .460 given his trends and park change), I think that his offensive contribution from catcher should be roughly the same as Zaun provided in 2004 and 2005. As for Hillenbrand, he should hit for an average of .290 or better. Whether he reverts back to his pre-2005 established AVG-OBP gap (mid 30's) or whether he truly has developed a propensity for getting hit by pitches (and the mid 50's gap that goes with it) will determine whether the DH position improves from last season.
Thomas: To continue in the same vein as before, the offence will be better in 2006. I have little doubt of that. The question is how much better and will that be enough? I agree with Joe in that we need more than simply the expected production from the two new bats to truly contend. It's possible that may be enough, but not likely.
If Molina and Hillenbrand drop back towards their career averages and do not duplicate their 2005 campaigns and the Rios/Hinske platoon does not produce, the Jays will notice. I think Molina is quite unlikely to match his 2005 numbers and although I'm also somewhat sceptical of Hillenbrand, he's got a better chance than I'd like to admit of coming close to replicating those numbers. Depending on how Hinske handles left the Rios/Hinske partnership could be an offensive contribution many fans who are calling for Eric's head notice more than they think they would. The other wild-card is Wells. If he can put up .850 OPS numbers (somewhere between 2003 and 2004/2005) that'll be another noticable progression. I think the offence will be improved in 2006, but the question is whether it is a step or a leap forward. The Jays need at least a skip, but it's quite possible.
Matthew E: Ricciardi said recently in the Globe and Mail that he's still after another hitter. I think he is right to try to get one. This team seems to be built on the great-pitching-and-just-enough-hitting plan, and when you've got a team like that, the way to improve it is with more hitting.
To me the key guy is Rios. If he puts it together, then the offence goes from good to very good, and, also importantly, the defence improves too. I just don't believe in Eric Hinske as an outfielder, and you can't make me.
Gitz: As something of a DS (Designated Skeptic), I feel the need to disperse the sands of caution. The Jays' lineup reminds me in many ways of the A's the last three years: a group of complementary hitters surrounded (in theory) by one big hitter (Eric Chavez on the A's, Troy Glaus on the Jays). In fact, there are many similarities between the two offenses: they both get league average or worse production from the two corner outfield positions, first base, and designated hitter. A return to Vernon Wells' 2003 form would go a long way to improving the offence from "mediocre" to "good." Considering that Vernon's other three seasons, in particular the last two, when Wells was supposed to take another step up, look nearly identical, it may be asking too much.
Similarly, asking for Rios and Hinske to produce at an acceptable level may also be asking too much. We can all wax optimistically about Rios finding his power stroke and Hinske re-gaining his, but the fact is one of those events occurring would be rare; both of them occurring is borderline impossible. If J.P. has a chance to upgrade the RF position, he should do it without hesitation.
Still, Lyle Overbay (in keeping with my theory of a parallel offense to the A's) is a serious upgrade at first base over Scott Hatteberg, Shea Hillenbrand (as opposed to Erubiel Durazo), can help a team by being durable and by driving in those players who can draw walks (i.e. Overbay), and Glaus may provide a hammer that Chavez has not really been able to do during his career.
All in all, I see the Jays having problems scoring runs, though they will certainly be no worse than they were a year ago. But if Glaus gets hurt?
Magpie - If Glaus gets hurt?
Woe! Alack the day! All is lost, lost..
Well, maybe not that bad. But bad, nevertheless.
Named For Hank: I'm hoping that George Steinbrenner will have more to complain about, because the World Baseball Classic appears to have given Vernon Wells and Alex Rios the head start on the season that they both needed; I hope it's not a Grapefruit Mirage, and that ol' Georgie seriously regrets pressuring his best players to skip the tournament.
The consensus is that the Jays offense will be better, with Rios, Hinske and injuries being the wild cards. On Monday we will look at the pitching side of the ledger. You have heard from the roster, what do you, the readers, think?
