Changes galore. Front office shenanigans. An unhappy Manny Ramirez. In other words, a typical Bosox off-season. The Batters Box roster met over a virtual beer or two in early March to talk about the Beantowners.
1. The Sox have options for the rotation- Beckett, Clement, Wells, Wakefield, Arroyo, Papelbon, and Schilling, with Lester waiting in the wings. Better or worse than in 2005?
Matthew-Oh, better, I suppose, but still not scary. How many of those guys are going to be good enough to actually push the Sox forward? Beckett, presumably. Schilling, they hope, but I don’t think it’s likely. Clement? Papelbon? Tough to argue. Depth is nice, but it doesn’t produce good things; it just protects you against bad things.
Mike G- Better, better, better. Beckett is a great addition, and among Papelbon and Lester, the Sox have, I think, one other fine starter in the making. Schilling is a positive question mark- he's not likely to be worse than in 2005 and could be much better.
Jonny- From an objective viewpoint, I like Arroyo and Wakefield as the back end of the Sox rotation. As a Blue Jay fan, I like the serious question marks about the front end. For all the talk of the risk associated with A.J. Burnett, it's Josh Beckett who has never turned in a full healthy season. Burnett has been the picture of health outside of his time off for Tommy John surgery, including a season and a half post-surgery; Beckett meanwhile missed time in 2005 with his chronic blister problems, with an oblique injury, and was shut down at the end of the season with a sore shoulder. While it may just have been posturing by the Sox, talk of that shoulder and the MRI on it was at the forefront in the trade rumours leading up to Beckett being dealt to Boston. Curt Schilling is sure to better than he was in 2005, but he's 39 years old and needs to be night-and-day better before he can be counted on as an ace. Matt Clement may have had an off year in his Boston debut, or he may just be nothing but another back-end starter when facing DH-lineups in the unfriendly confines of Fenway. David Wells is 43 and discontent; it'll be a shock if his ERA is signficantly lower than four and a half. Papelbon made an impressive debut, but expecting any rookie pitcher who hasn't already earned the nickname "King" to be a difference maker is foolhardy. Specifically to Papelbon's case, it has to be noted that his impressive minor league career is tainted by the fact that throughout it he was a couple years older than you'd like before applying a Top Prospect label.
With that all said, the depth does scare me a little.
Gerry-Four of those starters could be the same, Wells, Arroyo, Clement and Wakefield. The only concern with those four is Clement who was good in the first half of the season and bad in the back half. The addition of Beckett and Schilling should make the Sox better. Beckett is a big upgrade from Wade Miller but Schilling might not be an upgrade from Arroyo. Schilling is 39 and coming back from an injury in the 2004 world series and a lot of inactivity last year. The Sox might trade a pitcher as they have seven possibles, including Papelbon. Overall, stronger than 2005.
Mike D-I think the rotation is likely better; any drop-off from Boomer should be met by an improvement from Schilling, and Beckett should do well. I am not, however, high on Clement or Arroyo and I don't expect either to have breakout seasons. The dominant Arroyo of the '04 postseason was, to my mind, a mirage; he makes a lot of mistakes within the strike zone and doesn't strike enough batters out. Papelbon was impressive but was most effective in mop-up duties; I'll get on his bandwagon once he gets shelled and rebounds with a fine outing the next time.
Leigh- The rotation ought to be better, with the addition of Beckett and return of the Real Curt Schilling. Schilling struck out 87 last year while walking only 22 in 93.3 innings. As long as the mild gopheritis (12 HR) was a temporary condition, he should be just fine. Can a youthful former Marlin with a history of injuries make the transition to the American League East without a significant downturn in performance? I spent much of the winter convincing myself that the answer is yes. Something tells me that Wakefield and Wells, neither of whom has ever relied on his physique, will continue to age well. Presumably, the trade of Arroyo indicates that the Red Sox believe that they have the pre-bean version Clement.
2. The bullpen should feature Timlin, Riske and Craig Hansen. Other possibilities include Schilling, Foulke, Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Abe Alvarez and old friend Jamie Vermilyea. So, is Hansen the closer to start the season, and how do you figure he'll do?
Gerry- Hansen might be the closer to start the season but he will lose the job by June. Major league closer is a tough job, and major league pitcher is tough too. There are very few pitchers who survive long term, without experience at setting up hitters. I think Hansen struggles and Timlin works his way back into the job.
Mike D-The Red Sox have assembled a good bullpen. Don't forget about Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez, each of whom the Red Sox were very keen to acquire; it's easy to forget that the Red Sox nearly matched the Yankees in resources spent on improving short and middle relief. The loss of Mike Myers to the Bronx leaves the Bosox without a real LOOGY; Lenny DiNardo has bounced up and down, but he hasn't buzzed big league lefties during his callups.
On the closer question, I think the Red Sox will start with Foulke and give him the extended time frame most clubs would give a big-money veteran to work out any difficulties that arise. Last year, Foulke had no fastball and terrible mechanics; his fastball is apparently back, and we'll see whether that's because of or in spite of his mechanical adjustments. I don't expect Hansen to close until July at the earliest unless Foulke goes on the DL.
As for old friend Jamie Vermilyea, I'd give him about a 2% chance of sticking. If they succeed in trading Wells, they'll probably go with Papelbon, Foulke, Hansen, Riske, Seanez, Tavarez and Timlin. If they can't move Wells, Arroyo will go to the 'pen and Vermilyea has even less of a chance. I think we will very likely see Jamie on the SkyChiefs in 2006.
Thomas-I would try to take Vermilyea barring a pretty good offer from the Sox. I'm convinced that he has a good shot of becoming an average or slightly better major-league reliever in the future. I wouldn't take a prospect like Wideman for him. If the Jays can work out a trade with the Red Sox for a prospect of fair value that fills an organizational need, by all means make the move. But this isn't a case of giving away what amounts to a spare body. Vermilyea's better than that.
Mike G- It seems to be easier for a young pitcher to make the transition to the major leagues as a closer than in the rotation. That being the case, and given Hansen's stuff, you have to like his chances. The Sox signed him to a 4 year contract in July, so they evidently think so too. Foulke's contract contains a vesting option worth 7.75 million for 2007 if he finishes 53 games; that might influence the Sox' decision with respect to his role in 2006.
3. The most sweeping changes have been to the Sox defence. Crisp for Damon in centerfield. Gonzalez for Renteria at short, Loretta for Bellhorn/Graffanino at second, Lowell for Mueller at third, and Youkilis for Millar at first. Are they better or worse overall?
Mike D-Defensively, I guess the Red Sox are about even. The difference between, say, Youkilis and Millar (neither are very good at handling throws) is not that significant, although it will be if Snow gets a lot of innings at first. Manny's only getting worse in left, and Trot Nixon's once-excellent D is on the decline. It looks like the Red Sox won't (can't?) shelter Trot from lefties this season, and the heavier workload won't help his defensive skills as he ages. The club will be fine at second, third and short. Crisp won't be dramatically better than Damon, but his throwing won't be as much of a liability.
Gerry-I like the Crisp for Damon move, and the Loretta for 2B move, both of those are equal or upgrades. Gonzalez and Lowell are downgrades from 2005. Even if Lowell regains some of his abilities, Bill Meuller was a very good player, especially with the Sox using him lower in the order. I don't see Lowell having a .369 OBP. Renteria did not have a great year but he did hit .276, an average that Gonzalez might not get to. Youkilis had good numbers last year but I think he got a lot of his at-bats against lefties, in full time duty he might not do as well. All in all a small downgrade for the Sox.
Mike G- That's a tough one. I make Crisp as slightly better than Damon, Gonzalez as better than Renteria (who was off his game in 2005), Loretta and Lowell as even with their predecessors and Youkilis better than Millar. I guess they are quite a bit better. That really isn't difficult, as the Sox were a below average defensive club in 2005.
4. The Sox scored 910 runs in 2005, 40 fewer than in 2004. With the increasing age of Ramirez, Varitek and Ortiz and the changes to the lineup will this trend continue?
Gerry-I will call down Ramirez and Ortiz from 2005 and predict 880 runs for the Sox.
Leigh- I would guess that the downward trend will continue, if for no other reasons than that scoring 900 runs is really hard to do and there has not been a Red Sox regular that consumes outs at the rate of Alex Gonzalez in recent years.
Mike G-Nagging injuries, particularly to Varitek, are a distinct possibility, so yes they could score somewhat fewer runs. Loretta is a huge offensive improvement though, and Youkilis over the 2005 version of Millar is a big one. My guess is that they score around 900 runs.
Pistol-Sure, but even if the Sox offense declines they’re still in great shape. They scored 100 or more runs than all but three teams. That’s ridiculous. A decline of 60 runs to 850 still makes them a top 3 offense (unadjusted for park).
5- The bench seems to be thinner than in past years. Josh Bard backs up Varitek. Alex Cora and Tony Graffanino(with Dustin Pedroia probably starting the season in Pawtucket) are your middle infield back-ups, although Graffanino might be traded for other bench help, and Dustan Mohr may win a job as Nixon's platoon partner in right-field. Otherwise there is not much. In particular, there is no big bat on the bench. How much is the lack of bench strength going to hurt?
Mike G-Talk to me later. I am quite sure that Epstein will have converted some of that pitching and middle infield depth into a backup outfielder and a first base/PH with pop before mid-season at the very latest.
Thomas- I agree with Mike. In fact, I think Graffanino will be dealt during the spring. A pitcher may be, or Epstein might hang onto the surplus for a few weeks until an injury pops up somewhere. In any case, I think the bench in July will look different from the bench as it does right now. Nevertheless, I don't view the bench as a huge liability. Alex Cora is a prototypical backup infielder and he's not going to make or break the team. Dustan Mohr could be effective in a platoon spot and Adam Stern will spend the first month of the season on the roster, as per the rules concerning a Rule V draft pick. The one place that their lack of depth will hurt them is catcher, as Varitek could wear down and injury would prove costly, particularly as Shoppach is no longer around (although the organization doubted he would hit anyway).
Nevertheless, I don't view the bench as much weaker than many other clubs. The Yankees don't have a particularly strong bench and are similarly dire circumstances if Posada went down with an injury. Toronto's got a strong backup catcher and our outfield works because of the platoon nature of it, as well as the ability to sub defence in for offence late in the game. Oakland's got a strong bench, particularly with the four outfielders, but Boston's still doesn't scream gaping hole. In the end, as you said, it'll matter what the makeup is in July, not April.
Mattthew-Hasn’t seemed to hurt the Yankees.
6. Do all the off-season shenanigans, the Epstein saga and the Ramirez pouts, matter now that the season is upon us?
Matthew- Only if they end up trading Ramirez. Last year you could boil down the top of the AL East this way:
Boston: Ramirez, Ortiz New York: Rodriguez, Sheffield Toronto: (vacant)
If Boston messes with this, it’s a mistake.
Gerry-I think the ManRam issue could still blow up. Manny is unpredictable and if the Fenway faithful sour on him, Manny could head for the hills. I don't think we have heard the end of the ManRam show for this season.
Mike G- Not one whit. Bill Lajoie, and the supporting personnel, did an excellent job in Epstein's absence. The rest is show business.
7. Baseball Prospectus has Dustin Pedroia as the 11th best prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America has him as the 77th best. What can we expect from him?
Mike G-Half a season in Pawtucket, where he hits .300/.400/.480, and then a promotion to the big club. He probably fits right in the middle of the BP and BA ratings, and will be a very valuable and underrated player, much as Aaron Hill is.
8. Last year, the Sox won 95 games with a Pythagorean W-L of 90-72. This year, it looks like they will score and give up fewer runs. How many wins for the Sox in 06?
Leigh- Ninety-one wins and an AL East title.
Gerry- I think the division is stronger and I am still worried about Manny so I am going to go with 88 wins.
Pistol- Boston has a pretty wide range of where they could fall this year. I don’t think 96 wins is unrealistic and I don’t think that 86 wins is unrealistic either. Where they end up is largely a matter of health. I’ll go with 89 wins.
Mike G- 93 actual and Pythagorean wins, and 2nd place. The Sox are better, but will win fewer. I expect the wild card race to go down to the final weekend, with the Sox winning by a nose.
1. The Sox have options for the rotation- Beckett, Clement, Wells, Wakefield, Arroyo, Papelbon, and Schilling, with Lester waiting in the wings. Better or worse than in 2005?
Matthew-Oh, better, I suppose, but still not scary. How many of those guys are going to be good enough to actually push the Sox forward? Beckett, presumably. Schilling, they hope, but I don’t think it’s likely. Clement? Papelbon? Tough to argue. Depth is nice, but it doesn’t produce good things; it just protects you against bad things.
Mike G- Better, better, better. Beckett is a great addition, and among Papelbon and Lester, the Sox have, I think, one other fine starter in the making. Schilling is a positive question mark- he's not likely to be worse than in 2005 and could be much better.
Jonny- From an objective viewpoint, I like Arroyo and Wakefield as the back end of the Sox rotation. As a Blue Jay fan, I like the serious question marks about the front end. For all the talk of the risk associated with A.J. Burnett, it's Josh Beckett who has never turned in a full healthy season. Burnett has been the picture of health outside of his time off for Tommy John surgery, including a season and a half post-surgery; Beckett meanwhile missed time in 2005 with his chronic blister problems, with an oblique injury, and was shut down at the end of the season with a sore shoulder. While it may just have been posturing by the Sox, talk of that shoulder and the MRI on it was at the forefront in the trade rumours leading up to Beckett being dealt to Boston. Curt Schilling is sure to better than he was in 2005, but he's 39 years old and needs to be night-and-day better before he can be counted on as an ace. Matt Clement may have had an off year in his Boston debut, or he may just be nothing but another back-end starter when facing DH-lineups in the unfriendly confines of Fenway. David Wells is 43 and discontent; it'll be a shock if his ERA is signficantly lower than four and a half. Papelbon made an impressive debut, but expecting any rookie pitcher who hasn't already earned the nickname "King" to be a difference maker is foolhardy. Specifically to Papelbon's case, it has to be noted that his impressive minor league career is tainted by the fact that throughout it he was a couple years older than you'd like before applying a Top Prospect label.
With that all said, the depth does scare me a little.
Gerry-Four of those starters could be the same, Wells, Arroyo, Clement and Wakefield. The only concern with those four is Clement who was good in the first half of the season and bad in the back half. The addition of Beckett and Schilling should make the Sox better. Beckett is a big upgrade from Wade Miller but Schilling might not be an upgrade from Arroyo. Schilling is 39 and coming back from an injury in the 2004 world series and a lot of inactivity last year. The Sox might trade a pitcher as they have seven possibles, including Papelbon. Overall, stronger than 2005.
Mike D-I think the rotation is likely better; any drop-off from Boomer should be met by an improvement from Schilling, and Beckett should do well. I am not, however, high on Clement or Arroyo and I don't expect either to have breakout seasons. The dominant Arroyo of the '04 postseason was, to my mind, a mirage; he makes a lot of mistakes within the strike zone and doesn't strike enough batters out. Papelbon was impressive but was most effective in mop-up duties; I'll get on his bandwagon once he gets shelled and rebounds with a fine outing the next time.
Leigh- The rotation ought to be better, with the addition of Beckett and return of the Real Curt Schilling. Schilling struck out 87 last year while walking only 22 in 93.3 innings. As long as the mild gopheritis (12 HR) was a temporary condition, he should be just fine. Can a youthful former Marlin with a history of injuries make the transition to the American League East without a significant downturn in performance? I spent much of the winter convincing myself that the answer is yes. Something tells me that Wakefield and Wells, neither of whom has ever relied on his physique, will continue to age well. Presumably, the trade of Arroyo indicates that the Red Sox believe that they have the pre-bean version Clement.
2. The bullpen should feature Timlin, Riske and Craig Hansen. Other possibilities include Schilling, Foulke, Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Abe Alvarez and old friend Jamie Vermilyea. So, is Hansen the closer to start the season, and how do you figure he'll do?
Gerry- Hansen might be the closer to start the season but he will lose the job by June. Major league closer is a tough job, and major league pitcher is tough too. There are very few pitchers who survive long term, without experience at setting up hitters. I think Hansen struggles and Timlin works his way back into the job.
Mike D-The Red Sox have assembled a good bullpen. Don't forget about Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez, each of whom the Red Sox were very keen to acquire; it's easy to forget that the Red Sox nearly matched the Yankees in resources spent on improving short and middle relief. The loss of Mike Myers to the Bronx leaves the Bosox without a real LOOGY; Lenny DiNardo has bounced up and down, but he hasn't buzzed big league lefties during his callups.
On the closer question, I think the Red Sox will start with Foulke and give him the extended time frame most clubs would give a big-money veteran to work out any difficulties that arise. Last year, Foulke had no fastball and terrible mechanics; his fastball is apparently back, and we'll see whether that's because of or in spite of his mechanical adjustments. I don't expect Hansen to close until July at the earliest unless Foulke goes on the DL.
As for old friend Jamie Vermilyea, I'd give him about a 2% chance of sticking. If they succeed in trading Wells, they'll probably go with Papelbon, Foulke, Hansen, Riske, Seanez, Tavarez and Timlin. If they can't move Wells, Arroyo will go to the 'pen and Vermilyea has even less of a chance. I think we will very likely see Jamie on the SkyChiefs in 2006.
Thomas-I would try to take Vermilyea barring a pretty good offer from the Sox. I'm convinced that he has a good shot of becoming an average or slightly better major-league reliever in the future. I wouldn't take a prospect like Wideman for him. If the Jays can work out a trade with the Red Sox for a prospect of fair value that fills an organizational need, by all means make the move. But this isn't a case of giving away what amounts to a spare body. Vermilyea's better than that.
Mike G- It seems to be easier for a young pitcher to make the transition to the major leagues as a closer than in the rotation. That being the case, and given Hansen's stuff, you have to like his chances. The Sox signed him to a 4 year contract in July, so they evidently think so too. Foulke's contract contains a vesting option worth 7.75 million for 2007 if he finishes 53 games; that might influence the Sox' decision with respect to his role in 2006.
3. The most sweeping changes have been to the Sox defence. Crisp for Damon in centerfield. Gonzalez for Renteria at short, Loretta for Bellhorn/Graffanino at second, Lowell for Mueller at third, and Youkilis for Millar at first. Are they better or worse overall?
Mike D-Defensively, I guess the Red Sox are about even. The difference between, say, Youkilis and Millar (neither are very good at handling throws) is not that significant, although it will be if Snow gets a lot of innings at first. Manny's only getting worse in left, and Trot Nixon's once-excellent D is on the decline. It looks like the Red Sox won't (can't?) shelter Trot from lefties this season, and the heavier workload won't help his defensive skills as he ages. The club will be fine at second, third and short. Crisp won't be dramatically better than Damon, but his throwing won't be as much of a liability.
Gerry-I like the Crisp for Damon move, and the Loretta for 2B move, both of those are equal or upgrades. Gonzalez and Lowell are downgrades from 2005. Even if Lowell regains some of his abilities, Bill Meuller was a very good player, especially with the Sox using him lower in the order. I don't see Lowell having a .369 OBP. Renteria did not have a great year but he did hit .276, an average that Gonzalez might not get to. Youkilis had good numbers last year but I think he got a lot of his at-bats against lefties, in full time duty he might not do as well. All in all a small downgrade for the Sox.
Mike G- That's a tough one. I make Crisp as slightly better than Damon, Gonzalez as better than Renteria (who was off his game in 2005), Loretta and Lowell as even with their predecessors and Youkilis better than Millar. I guess they are quite a bit better. That really isn't difficult, as the Sox were a below average defensive club in 2005.
4. The Sox scored 910 runs in 2005, 40 fewer than in 2004. With the increasing age of Ramirez, Varitek and Ortiz and the changes to the lineup will this trend continue?
Gerry-I will call down Ramirez and Ortiz from 2005 and predict 880 runs for the Sox.
Leigh- I would guess that the downward trend will continue, if for no other reasons than that scoring 900 runs is really hard to do and there has not been a Red Sox regular that consumes outs at the rate of Alex Gonzalez in recent years.
Mike G-Nagging injuries, particularly to Varitek, are a distinct possibility, so yes they could score somewhat fewer runs. Loretta is a huge offensive improvement though, and Youkilis over the 2005 version of Millar is a big one. My guess is that they score around 900 runs.
Pistol-Sure, but even if the Sox offense declines they’re still in great shape. They scored 100 or more runs than all but three teams. That’s ridiculous. A decline of 60 runs to 850 still makes them a top 3 offense (unadjusted for park).
5- The bench seems to be thinner than in past years. Josh Bard backs up Varitek. Alex Cora and Tony Graffanino(with Dustin Pedroia probably starting the season in Pawtucket) are your middle infield back-ups, although Graffanino might be traded for other bench help, and Dustan Mohr may win a job as Nixon's platoon partner in right-field. Otherwise there is not much. In particular, there is no big bat on the bench. How much is the lack of bench strength going to hurt?
Mike G-Talk to me later. I am quite sure that Epstein will have converted some of that pitching and middle infield depth into a backup outfielder and a first base/PH with pop before mid-season at the very latest.
Thomas- I agree with Mike. In fact, I think Graffanino will be dealt during the spring. A pitcher may be, or Epstein might hang onto the surplus for a few weeks until an injury pops up somewhere. In any case, I think the bench in July will look different from the bench as it does right now. Nevertheless, I don't view the bench as a huge liability. Alex Cora is a prototypical backup infielder and he's not going to make or break the team. Dustan Mohr could be effective in a platoon spot and Adam Stern will spend the first month of the season on the roster, as per the rules concerning a Rule V draft pick. The one place that their lack of depth will hurt them is catcher, as Varitek could wear down and injury would prove costly, particularly as Shoppach is no longer around (although the organization doubted he would hit anyway).
Nevertheless, I don't view the bench as much weaker than many other clubs. The Yankees don't have a particularly strong bench and are similarly dire circumstances if Posada went down with an injury. Toronto's got a strong backup catcher and our outfield works because of the platoon nature of it, as well as the ability to sub defence in for offence late in the game. Oakland's got a strong bench, particularly with the four outfielders, but Boston's still doesn't scream gaping hole. In the end, as you said, it'll matter what the makeup is in July, not April.
Mattthew-Hasn’t seemed to hurt the Yankees.
6. Do all the off-season shenanigans, the Epstein saga and the Ramirez pouts, matter now that the season is upon us?
Matthew- Only if they end up trading Ramirez. Last year you could boil down the top of the AL East this way:
Boston: Ramirez, Ortiz New York: Rodriguez, Sheffield Toronto: (vacant)
If Boston messes with this, it’s a mistake.
Gerry-I think the ManRam issue could still blow up. Manny is unpredictable and if the Fenway faithful sour on him, Manny could head for the hills. I don't think we have heard the end of the ManRam show for this season.
Mike G- Not one whit. Bill Lajoie, and the supporting personnel, did an excellent job in Epstein's absence. The rest is show business.
7. Baseball Prospectus has Dustin Pedroia as the 11th best prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America has him as the 77th best. What can we expect from him?
Mike G-Half a season in Pawtucket, where he hits .300/.400/.480, and then a promotion to the big club. He probably fits right in the middle of the BP and BA ratings, and will be a very valuable and underrated player, much as Aaron Hill is.
8. Last year, the Sox won 95 games with a Pythagorean W-L of 90-72. This year, it looks like they will score and give up fewer runs. How many wins for the Sox in 06?
Leigh- Ninety-one wins and an AL East title.
Gerry- I think the division is stronger and I am still worried about Manny so I am going to go with 88 wins.
Pistol- Boston has a pretty wide range of where they could fall this year. I don’t think 96 wins is unrealistic and I don’t think that 86 wins is unrealistic either. Where they end up is largely a matter of health. I’ll go with 89 wins.
Mike G- 93 actual and Pythagorean wins, and 2nd place. The Sox are better, but will win fewer. I expect the wild card race to go down to the final weekend, with the Sox winning by a nose.
