The Jays come into this game with one outfielder from the major league roster, Eric Hinske. Vernon Wells, Frank Catalanotto and Alex Rios are off to the World Cup while Reed Johnson is injured. That opens the door for John-Ford Griffin, Chad Mottola, Wayne Lydon, Miguel Negron, Justin Singleton and Adam Lind to get some at-bats over the next few weeks. John-Ford Griffin has a chance to follow the Gabe Gross path through spring training this year. He has lots of pop in his bat and he could feast on the easy pitching in the first couple of weeks of spring training. Remember hitters who dominate through March 20th are proving little, the guys who finish strong prove more. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Game on!
The Jays come into this game with one outfielder from the major league roster, Eric Hinske. Vernon Wells, Frank Catalanotto and Alex Rios are off to the World Cup while Reed Johnson is injured. That opens the door for John-Ford Griffin, Chad Mottola, Wayne Lydon, Miguel Negron, Justin Singleton and Adam Lind to get some at-bats over the next few weeks. John-Ford Griffin has a chance to follow the Gabe Gross path through spring training this year. He has lots of pop in his bat and he could feast on the easy pitching in the first couple of weeks of spring training. Remember hitters who dominate through March 20th are proving little, the guys who finish strong prove more. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Game on!
I E-Mailed the general manager of the stations and he told me they'll be carrying just about every game. The only exceptions will be non-holiday weekday afternoon games (when the stations are obligated to carry their news and talk programming) and when there's a conflict with their coverage of the Ottawa Senators.
First game on the radio is Saturday!
I will be on my way shortly to the Jays 1st preseason game in Dunedin.
I love this time of year!
The weather is expected to be hot-82F and sunny. Perfect baseball weather!
I was at the Monday intersquad game at the complex and it was an interesting, fun game. Docv was unhittable and Rios hit everything. There was a decent crowd at the game also.
Based on this "formula," the Jays optimum line-up could look something like this:
Troy Glaus .363/.522/.885 (84 BB)
Lyle Overbay .367/.449/.816 (78 BB) Vernon Wells .320/.463/.783 Frank Catalanotto .367/.451/.818 (37 BB) Shea Hillebrand .343/.449/.792 Bengie Molina .336/.446/.782 Aaron Hill .342/.385/.727 Russ Adams .325/.383/.707 Alex Rios .306/.397/.703Now this is very basic, but it is fun to fool around with this sort of thing. What would your reaction be if you saw this line-up used by Mr. Gibbons?
I would rather have Glaus' isolated power batting behind Cat and Overbay as that power does much less good if the lower quality of the 8 and 9 hitters are coming up ahead of him.
I'd be interested to see why the 4th hitter matters more than the third hitter. Probably because the 4th hitter in any lineup does see the most RBI opportunities in the long run. In that case I would want my 4th hitter to have the most power which is easily Glaus.
Also from Studes' article:
In addition, The Book found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and nobody on. So the run value of every hit (except the home run) is lower in the third position than in any other of the top five positions.
Hinske is the only OF who WILL be playing these next few weeks.
Lineup construction is more complex than the above quote might suggest, and I suspect that the authors make this clear elsewhere. The ability to reach base is the most important attribute of a leadoff hitter, but speed matters as well. Rickey Henderson will score significantly more runs than Wade Boggs with the same lineup behind him, even in seasons where their OBPs are the same.
However, the suggestion that the #2 hitter is more important than the #3 hitter to the success of the offence is an interesting and controversial one. Didn't Bobby Richardson bat second with Mickey Mantle third for the Yankees at points in the late 50s? Obviously, the effects here are fairly small, and the importance will depend on the ratio of OBP/power abilities for the hitter (one suspects that the numbers would be different for Joe Morgan than for Willie Mays, say).
/me strokes his mlb.tv subscription.
I've been suffering from baseball-withdrawl depression; can't wait to hear Jerry's voice and be transported to a warm Florida springtime.
I'd think he accidently flipped Cat and Glaus. Otherwise, it's a very reasonable lineup. Like Mike, I doubt that Tango et al are blindly advocating "more walks in the 1 slot than in the 5". Cat isn't a player who recently had a good OBP driven by a flukish batting average, he's an established high-average hitter and can be expected to continue to put up good OBPs despite not walking a lot.
It's only spring.
Can one listen to this game without Gameday Audio?
ie. for free?
Yeah, I should have mentioned that; in Dave's (got it right this time) article he mentions that the quote he took from the book was a simplified version and that "The Book" goes into much greater detail.
Incidentally, another article posted today at THT is a book review by Dan Fox of Dayn Perry's new book and Henderson is mentioned in the review. Apparently Perry, in his book, explains that of Henderson's +2900 runs, only 270 can be attributed to his base stealing. I found that interesting...
Tomorrow is the game against Team Canada, should be a great one. Hope to see some of you there.
For those new to the Box, The Dude is Hinske. He got the nickname at the beginning off last season when he didn't suck. (There may be more to the name though.)
Jordan and I forgot to mention Chad The Beer Guy in our respective Dunedin Diaries. He's easy to spot -- leads the crowd in "Take Me Out To The Ballgame" (and OK Blue Jays) and, at various points throughout the game, holds up a beer, says "Going once...going twice...sold!" and drains the entire can admist the applause of the crowd.
And I believe "The Dude" came from the fact that we needed a name for Hinske that would make people just say "Whoa...DUDE..." whenever he came up. So we went with the easy choice.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/schedule/broadcast.jsp
17 Games aren't on tv this season. No word on whether the Jays will be on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
Tabler and Black are back on TSN.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060302&content_id=1330907&vkey=spt2006gamer&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor#boxscore
There's a Dodgers/Braves game at 1pm Friday, and a bunch of WBC games starting Tuesday. No Jays though.
Last year all the jays games that weren't shown on sportsnet or tsn were shown on the Rogers preview channel with the visiting team's broadcast.
Last year all the jays games that weren't shown on sportsnet or tsn were shown on the Rogers preview channel with the visiting team's broadcast.Grumble
That would be Danny Hill who pitched at Dunedin at the end of last year. Hill was a third round choice in 2004 and has been in the bullpen ever since.
Missing out on the Burnett start is a result of the hockey on Sportsnet, but there's no reason TSN can't pick up the slack.
And anyone within a 1 hour radius of the RC shouldn't be whining. Come out to the games!
I think this move to the outfield might be a long term thing. His numbers in the minors are impressive but he's obviously blocked at 3rd in the majors so it'd make sense to give him a shot in leftfield - a position that might need filling in a year or two.
Fine defensive play by CT in the top of the 8th -- an outside pitch thwarted what appeared to be a safety squeeze, and the catcher nailed the runner retreating to third anyway. And a lovely diving catch in right to close out the bottom of the eighth by the Korean RF.
Baseball's back!
The Jays will once again go with mutiple colour guys in the booth with Jamie Campbell. The Knuckler has been removed though so now it's down to 3 guys.
Too bad, too. I liked Tom Candiotti. I thought he was doing a good job with J.C.(AKA gv27)
View the non-tv games as a chance to listen to the game on the radio, see it in person, or to even 'watch' it via the various gamecasts online.
Rogers started up three news stations in the Maritimes on the FM band in the fall. Here's the list of the stations:
Saint John: 88.9
Moncton: 91.9
Halifax: 95.7
It's news and talk radio in the mornings and afternoons, but in the evenings it's all sports. Bob McCown gets an hour and the rest is the ESPN radio feed.
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1141339814500&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064&t=TS_Home
"If you can't catch a ball, catch a Bud!" a roving beer salesman in the stands boomed out to the crowd after the Jays had made their third error an inning later.
"While Sportsnet is boosting its Jays content, TSN is going in the opposite direction, dropping from 42 to 23 games this season.But that has nothing to do with ratings. TSN's 412,000 average last season represented a 72 per cent increase, but by picking up extra games in 2005 it could only take 23 this year.
That means all but 17 of the team's games will be on regular TV, matching last season's total."
And Jamie Campbell will call the 122 games for Sportsnet. Sometimes you get lucky. TSN obviously didn't see this coming.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4821
I thought this quote about the Jays was insightful:
"All are very solid players, but have little impact potential. The Blue Jays make picks like this continuously past the first round as well, leaving a weird system that has as many prospects as any in baseball who could get to the big leagues, but far fewer prospects than most one can project as starring there."
According to the Star today both weekend games are on the radio, Saturdays game on AM610 (Raptors conflict) and Sundays on the FAN. I assume we will hear Sawkiw then.
Just came from the split-squad game against Team Canada. This one was a great game for the Jays, they played much better than the one yesterday. Overbay looked great in his two AB's, had 2 doubles (one was 400 feet, off the top of the CF wall) and 4 RBIs. AJ started today and had either 3 or 4 K's in two innings, was pretty impressive. SS LOOGY looked in mid-season form as well, probably helped that Team Canada is mainly left-handers. Wayne Lydon (I know, who?) also looked good for the Jays today, hit a homer and showed good hustle.
Hinske didn't really have any work in the OF today, but he doesn't look too bad. He's still pretty big, from that picture that was posted here a while back I thought that maybe he had lost weight. But he's still no Molina. I highly doubt that Bengie's only 220 lbs, I weigh 200 and he has substantially more girth than I do.
Another hot day here, they announced the weather back in TO and I almost felt sorry for all of you back North. The bonuses I had today were sitting across the aisle from Paul Godfrey, talking to JP, meeting Larry Walker, Rob Ducey and Paul Quantrill, as well as gv27. Got to talk to Jamie for a bit, he's following Team Canada around, and unfortunately none of the Jays spring training games are being televised. He said he pushed Sportsnet hard for today's game to be televised but they wouldn't do it.
The beer guys here are great (as mentioned), but their line is actually "If you can't catch a ball, catch a buzz!"
Next up - tomorrow vs the Phillies.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2006_03_03_tormlb_tbamlb_1
Highlights include Purcey going and inning with no runners and one K. Downs pitched two innings of scoreless ball and Rosario pitched one. Thigpen got a double off of Malaska.
Every story has its spin and this one slightly slights the Jays for its two young middle infielders, suggesting that they define the team's identity and fortunes this year. Not that the young duo spells doom and gloom for the year but the message seems clear that they are holding the team back.
Then there's this gem from our GM, JP: "The thing about it is, when you play young kids," Ricciardi said, "you have to play young kids."
What on earth is he talking about?
• Ricciardi said his payroll will come in somewhere around $70-$75 million for 2006. It's a big jump from just a couple of years ago, when it hovered around $50 million. But it's nowhere near the Yankees', which last year topped $200 million.
Not that Ricciardi is complaining.
"It gives us a fighting chance," he said, "and that's all we could ask for."
On a side note, Ricciardi says ownership probably would OK adding some payroll for a midseason move if it's needed.
....
Interesting...it makes sense for Ted Rogers to bend the rules a little if the Jays are in position to make a nice playoff run.
For sure, think of the ratings!
I had trouble finding a box score from the Jays Canada game. Anybody know where I could get one?
Man, I am so excited about this year. We’ve come along way since the season from hell. This is going to be a very good year for following the Blue Jays on the Box.
Jays / Canada boxscore: http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060303&content_id=1332288&vkey=spt2006gamer&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
""The thing about it is, when you play young kids," Ricciardi said, "you have to play young kids."
What on earth is he talking about?"
I was watching the LA / Atlanta spring training game on Sportsnet today, and the commentators were talking about Atlanta's use of Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi last year. They claimed that the whole point of using those two players was so that Francoeur, Langerhans, etc would have to win jobs, instead of being given the job and the pressures of that from day one.
I think what JP is trying to say is that the Jays have given 2nd and short to Hill and Adams, and if they bomb, the Jays have no Bordick / Gomez style backup plan. By fully committing to play young kids, there is no plan B. The pressure is squarely on Hill and Adams to produce, because the only people behind them are John McDonald and Sergio Santos.
What I took it to mean was that there are risks and rewards in playing young players. There are potentially huge rewards (good performance, low cost) for playing the kids but in order to have a chance at the rewards you have to risk the kids flopping. "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" kind of thing.
RH
Overbay 1B
Cat LF
Hinske RF
Glaus 3B
Adams SS
Wells CF
Hillenbrand DH
Hill 2B
Zaun C
note: When Molina plays, he would bat 8th and Hill would go to 9th. When Rios plays he would replace Hinske in the 3 spot.
LH
Hill 2B
Wells CF
Johnson LF
Molina C
Glaus 3B
Overbay 1B
Hillenbrand DH
Adams/Mac SS
Rios RF
Interesting note: According to Cyril Morong, the #8 spot in the lineup has the least impact on the lineup and therefore you stick your worst hitter (yes Tony LaRussa, you can bat your pitcher there) there. Also the #2 spot is a good spot for a high on base slugger (Cat is number 2 in SLG over last 3 years vs RH). Batting Zaunie #9 should not be taken as an insult, as the 9 spot is very important in table setting, but least important in slugging. For more info check out: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296/
For the Lineup Analysis Tool, go to: www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py/
My apologies for the lengthy links.
Just finished watching the Phillies beat the Jays 9-7 here in sunny Dunedin. This was an entertaining game from the start, Josh Towers had the start for the Jays and looked pretty decent. The offences were clicking for both teams today, each team had more than 10 hits. I have to say, if there was ever a chance that we could have picked up Ryan Howard last season, we missed out - he is the real deal. John-Ford Griffin hit a homer for the Jays, putting him in a tie with Wayne Lydon for the team lead. Anyone want to make a wager on whether they'll keep this up?
Ricky Romero also pitched in his first game for the Jays today and wasn't that impressive unfortunately. He gave up 4 runs in his only inning and took the loss. Included in that were back-to-back homers that must have landed within 10 feet of each other over the LF wall.
Aquilino Lopez - remember him? - pitched the 9th for the Phillies for the save, and he looked impressive. He gave up a hit to Ryan Roberts (who has the most wicked set of tattoos this side of Justin Miller), but struck out the side. It was the way he did it that was eye-catching - there had to have been at least 7 or 8 swing-and-misses.
Bonuses today - Cito Gaston and George Bell were at the game for the Jays, managed to score Cito's autograph and talk to him for a bit. Gotta love this place!
Jerry Howarth mentioned good ol' Aquilino's slider was filthy -- do you know if that was that all he had in the tank, or did he get some other nice pitches over the plate as well?
Sheesh, I think it'd be impossible for a pitcher to look worse than McGowan has today. Somebody save the kid and get him the hell out of there.
The hitting looks nice however and Bengie Molina's arm has looked less than spectacular.
BTW, Glaus can MASH!