The 2005 Met team performed about as expected, scoring 722 runs and allowing 648, but posting only 83 wins, despite the solid run differential. Like the Jays, the Mets responded this off-season by upgrading the bullpen, with the acquisition of Billy Wagner the highlight. Wagner’s arrival, along with the fire sale acquisition of Carlos Delgado from the Marlins, have fans of the lesser New Yorkers feeling as optimistic as they can be. Will it be enough to end the Braves’ dynasty?
It was a busy off-season for the Mets. The big news was the signing of free agent Wagner to a long-term contract, and the trade of Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit to Florida for Carlos Delgado. Less noticed was the trade of Mike Cameron to San Diego for Xavier Nady, and the acquisition of bullpen support for Wagner in the form of Duaner Sanchez, Steve Schmoll and Chad Bradford. Then, 47 year old Julio Franco was signed to a 2 year contract. Finally Anna Benson and her husband were shipped to Baltimore for Jorge Julio and pitching prospect John Maine. What does it all mean?
The Offence
The Mets enter spring training with their starting lineup set, save for a battle between Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz for the right-fielder's job, replacing Mike Cameron. Carlos Beltran and Cliff Floyd will complete the outfield, with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Kaz Matsui and Carlos Delgado making up the infield. Paul Lo Duca catches. It's a lineup with an impressive power core, but no natural leadoff and #2 hitters, although Beltran could be productively used in the #2 slot and Reyes might end up as a useful leadoff man of the Lou Brock type, although probably not in 2006. Some have suggested a different lineup, perhaps Beltran, Wright, Nady/Diaz, Delgado, Floyd, Reyes, Lo Duca, Matsui. It's interesting, but not likely to happen, I think.
Chris Woodward, the Franco whose condition is not yet grave, Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez, the loser of the Nady/Diaz battle and backup catcher Ramon Castro figure to make up an adequate bench. Here's how the offence stacks up according to Marcel the Monkey:
The Pitching Staff
The top 4 of the Mets’ rotation promises to be Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano. John Maine and Aaron Heilman figure to battle for the 5th slot (replacing Kris Benson and Jae-Weung Seo), with the loser of that battle joining a re-cast bullpen featuring Steve Schmoll and Chad Bradford behind Wagner. Others who may contribute at some point in 2006 include Duaner Sanchez, Royce Ring, Heath Bell, Dae-Sung Koo and Jose Lima. Maine was acquired from the Orioles in the Benson deal. His overall minor league record suggests that he is indeed quite a good pitcher, who struggled in a difficult situation in Ottawa, much like Heilman endured in 2004 in triple A. I would expect Heilman to start the season in the #5 slot, with Maine in the bullpen, but I would be surprised if both are not in the rotation by season's end.
Here are the 2006 MARCEL figures for the pitching staff:
The Marcel figures do not take into account changes in team defence behind the pitchers, nor change of location or league for the pitchers. The Mets have made a couple of changes, which figure to result in somewhat less efficient defence in 2006. Xavier Nady for Mike Cameron in right field will likely the cost the team 5-10 runs. Carlos Delgado is at this point in his career a below average defender, but he is replacing Mike Piazza who wasn’t exactly Keith Hernandez with the glove. On the positive side, Billy Wagner’s move from a tougher environment for a pitcher and John Maine’s move from a tougher league likely mean that they will do a little better than Marcel projects. Overall, though, the Marcel figures to be accurate for the pitching staff as a whole, save for playing time, which I will discuss below.
So, what are the totals? 520 runs allowed, 1108 IP. There’s a missing 340 innings there. The leading candidates to supply those missing innings are Heilman (who Marcel knows as primarily a reliever and will likely start), Trachsel and Maine. I am projecting between 4.5 and 5 runs per game allowed for those missing innings, which will result in team runs allowed of between 695 and 715 runs allowed, 50-70 runs more than in 2005. Ouch. It looks like the loss of Benson, Seo and Petit in the off-season will sting more than I thought. Worse yet, Marcel's projection of 190 innings pitched for Pedro Martinez, looks, as of this point, to be a tad optimistic in light of his foot injury.
The Outlook
The Mets Pythagorean W-L last year was 89-73, and their projected run differential would suggest a similar record for 2006. The addition of Wagner, and the overall strength of the bullpen suggests to me that they might beat the projection by a game or two. I’ve marked the Mets down for 90 wins. The Braves will feel the loss of Furcal and Mazzone, and the Phillies should be good. I make this a 3 team race, with the Mets very much in it. The players to watch: the 23 year old Reyes, Beltran, Heilman and Maine.
The team's medium term position will depend on finances. There is a good core of young position players in Reyes, Wright and Lastings Milledge, who turns 21 in April and should be ready by 2007, along with Beltran, who should be productive for at least the next 3-4 years. On the pitching side, the news is not as good. Aaron Heilman, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Pedro Martinez could form the basis of a good rotation in 2008, but the Mets would be lucky if this happened. After Pelfrey and Milledge, the Mets' farm system is pretty much bare after the off-season moves.
It was a busy off-season for the Mets. The big news was the signing of free agent Wagner to a long-term contract, and the trade of Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit to Florida for Carlos Delgado. Less noticed was the trade of Mike Cameron to San Diego for Xavier Nady, and the acquisition of bullpen support for Wagner in the form of Duaner Sanchez, Steve Schmoll and Chad Bradford. Then, 47 year old Julio Franco was signed to a 2 year contract. Finally Anna Benson and her husband were shipped to Baltimore for Jorge Julio and pitching prospect John Maine. What does it all mean?
The Offence
The Mets enter spring training with their starting lineup set, save for a battle between Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz for the right-fielder's job, replacing Mike Cameron. Carlos Beltran and Cliff Floyd will complete the outfield, with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Kaz Matsui and Carlos Delgado making up the infield. Paul Lo Duca catches. It's a lineup with an impressive power core, but no natural leadoff and #2 hitters, although Beltran could be productively used in the #2 slot and Reyes might end up as a useful leadoff man of the Lou Brock type, although probably not in 2006. Some have suggested a different lineup, perhaps Beltran, Wright, Nady/Diaz, Delgado, Floyd, Reyes, Lo Duca, Matsui. It's interesting, but not likely to happen, I think.
Chris Woodward, the Franco whose condition is not yet grave, Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez, the loser of the Nady/Diaz battle and backup catcher Ramon Castro figure to make up an adequate bench. Here's how the offence stacks up according to Marcel the Monkey:
Hitter PA H 2b 3b Hr W K SB CS HBP GIDP OBP SLUG Delgado 563 134 31 2 28 67 110 1 1 1 12 .359 .532 Wright 557 151 34 2 23 52 88 13 4 2 13 .366 .522 Beltran 596 143 27 5 22 62 86 26 4 5 8 .352 .472 Floyd 559 131 26 2 24 55 98 10 2 9 9 .349 .471 Diaz 362 88 19 3 13 32 78 6 2 3 12 .340 .420 Castro 202 48 10 1 5 17 32 3 1 2 5 .332 .414 Franco 369 88 17 2 9 33 73 3 1 3 7 .336 .412 Nady 386 93 17 2 12 26 68 4 2 6 9 .324 .427 LoDuca 507 125 25 2 8 34 45 3 3 6 17 .325 .389 Reyes 589 157 26 10 8 27 69 40 8 2 6 .316 .410 Valentin 342 66 14 2 14 33 76 5 3 3 5 .298 .419 Matsui 398 95 19 3 6 27 67 9 2 4 4 .317 .375 Woodward 319 75 17 2 5 22 62 2 2 3 5 .313 .384 Chavez 320 76 13 3 4 19 34 1 4 1 10 .300 .336The totals here are 6069 plate appearances, which would be typical for a team over a season, however the team’s pitchers will normally account for about 300 plate appearances; 150 plate appearances can safely be taken from each of Endy Chavez and Julio Franco. The Mets might reasonably hope to get more than 557 plate appearances from David Wright, but would probably be quite happy to get 559 from Cliff Floyd. In the result, the team OBP figures to be about .330. The team’s slugging percentage figures to be about .435, and they figure to score about 780 runs, or roughly 60 more than last year.
The Pitching Staff
The top 4 of the Mets’ rotation promises to be Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano. John Maine and Aaron Heilman figure to battle for the 5th slot (replacing Kris Benson and Jae-Weung Seo), with the loser of that battle joining a re-cast bullpen featuring Steve Schmoll and Chad Bradford behind Wagner. Others who may contribute at some point in 2006 include Duaner Sanchez, Royce Ring, Heath Bell, Dae-Sung Koo and Jose Lima. Maine was acquired from the Orioles in the Benson deal. His overall minor league record suggests that he is indeed quite a good pitcher, who struggled in a difficult situation in Ottawa, much like Heilman endured in 2004 in triple A. I would expect Heilman to start the season in the #5 slot, with Maine in the bullpen, but I would be surprised if both are not in the rotation by season's end.
Here are the 2006 MARCEL figures for the pitching staff:
Pitcher IP H R ER ERA HR K W Wagner 69 53 24 21 2.87 7 67 20 Martinez 190 159 72 69 3.22 18 182 51 Heilman 90 84 43 41 4.00 9 77 35 Sanchez 74 74 35 32 4.07 8 55 28 Glavine 187 201 87 81 4.08 16 96 62 Bradford 43 43 21 19 4.08 4 27 14 Ring 30 30 15 14 4.20 3 23 13 Trachsel 99 101 50 45 4.27 12 59 37 Zambrano 153 146 77 70 4.29 14 113 80 Schmoll 48 48 26 24 4.41 5 34 19 Bell 5 54 27 26 4.41 5 42 16 Maine 74 74 43 40 4.74 11 49 30
The Marcel figures do not take into account changes in team defence behind the pitchers, nor change of location or league for the pitchers. The Mets have made a couple of changes, which figure to result in somewhat less efficient defence in 2006. Xavier Nady for Mike Cameron in right field will likely the cost the team 5-10 runs. Carlos Delgado is at this point in his career a below average defender, but he is replacing Mike Piazza who wasn’t exactly Keith Hernandez with the glove. On the positive side, Billy Wagner’s move from a tougher environment for a pitcher and John Maine’s move from a tougher league likely mean that they will do a little better than Marcel projects. Overall, though, the Marcel figures to be accurate for the pitching staff as a whole, save for playing time, which I will discuss below.
So, what are the totals? 520 runs allowed, 1108 IP. There’s a missing 340 innings there. The leading candidates to supply those missing innings are Heilman (who Marcel knows as primarily a reliever and will likely start), Trachsel and Maine. I am projecting between 4.5 and 5 runs per game allowed for those missing innings, which will result in team runs allowed of between 695 and 715 runs allowed, 50-70 runs more than in 2005. Ouch. It looks like the loss of Benson, Seo and Petit in the off-season will sting more than I thought. Worse yet, Marcel's projection of 190 innings pitched for Pedro Martinez, looks, as of this point, to be a tad optimistic in light of his foot injury.
The Outlook
The Mets Pythagorean W-L last year was 89-73, and their projected run differential would suggest a similar record for 2006. The addition of Wagner, and the overall strength of the bullpen suggests to me that they might beat the projection by a game or two. I’ve marked the Mets down for 90 wins. The Braves will feel the loss of Furcal and Mazzone, and the Phillies should be good. I make this a 3 team race, with the Mets very much in it. The players to watch: the 23 year old Reyes, Beltran, Heilman and Maine.
The team's medium term position will depend on finances. There is a good core of young position players in Reyes, Wright and Lastings Milledge, who turns 21 in April and should be ready by 2007, along with Beltran, who should be productive for at least the next 3-4 years. On the pitching side, the news is not as good. Aaron Heilman, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Pedro Martinez could form the basis of a good rotation in 2008, but the Mets would be lucky if this happened. After Pelfrey and Milledge, the Mets' farm system is pretty much bare after the off-season moves.
