I'd probably pick a position player over a pitcher 9 times out of ten. And in this case I would choose David Wright. Seems like a good kid, great defensively too. Cabrera seems to be a jerk, and Delmon Young hasn't done anything yet. If Pujols was 23, then I might go with him, but there are still doubts about his true age aren't there?

Knowing that the Rockies made the playoffs in their 3nd season, and the Diamondbacks won it all in their 4th, I see no reason why Alex Rodriguez should be left off the list. After all, you could always trade him to a big-spending team when he hits his mid-30's.

Of course, 10 years of Pujols is tempting. Too bad we can only pick one player - a guy like Chase Utley would be nice, but I think he's this thread's equivalent of "The Hall of the Very Good". Heck, I'm sure Prince Fielder would be taken over him by a decent portion of the audience at home.

Where have you gone, B.J. Upton?

I might be crazy, but I'd rather take a Pujols, A-Rod, Johan Santana type than a younger "prospecty" type.

I still would pick A-Rod I think although that decision was far more defensible prior to his trade to the Yankees both because of his being older now and because of his position switch.

I would also want to know the division of my expansion team. If I were in the AL East, I would be more inclined to vulture a player from the Yankees than from the Cards or Mets (A-Rod over Pujols and Wright).

Assuming that the player would not ask for a salary, I'd pick Wright. All going well, an expansion team might compete in 3 or 4 years and Wright should be at his peak then. In the real world, I'd pick Pujols. He's signed to a nice contract, should be valuable when the team is ready to compete, and would be a nice fan draw in the lean years.

If we're talking straight value as a player (using perhaps I don't know Win Shares Above Bench as a measure), I'd take Pujols. The best bat usually lasts longer.

"If we're talking straight value as a player (using perhaps I don't know Win Shares Above Bench as a measure)"

That's more or less what I was trying to get at. If you took every player today and started them at 0, who would have the most ____ (insert your own counting stat, adjusted for position) when they retired.

Probably Miggy.

His combination of performance and age is pretty frightening. And I think the whole "attitude problem" thing is completely overblown. You can say similar things about Wright, only with less attitude. I think Pujols is older than advertised and is going to have trouble staying healthy over the next decade. Delmon is a great prospect, but hasn't shown enough yet to be under consideration. And pitching is just too unreliable.

The other guy I would consider is Alex Rodriguez. Over the next decade, he's probably going to swat 400 HR and break the Babe's HR record. His health record is rock solid, and he plays a premium position (I'd move him back to SS).

The Great Pujols. Why? He's 26 (at least according to ESPN), an absolutely fantastic all-around hitter, solid defense, no health problems, amazingly consistent, terrific the last 3 seasons, clutch in the playoffs.

2nd choice: King Felix (dominating at age 19)
3rd choice: Santana (still only 26; one of the elite power starters in the majors--perhaps the best)

I have to go with F. HER (Felix Hernandez).

Barry Bonds.

Kidding...I'd probably go with that same top 5 though perhaps Mark Teixeira or A-Rod over Young.

I was just gonna say. All these guys are good. No one has yet mentioned Teixera, and Vlad Geurrero, who's only 29. What about Carl Crawford? But at the end of the day, Pujols is on pace to break the RBI record, the Homerun record and finish with a killer average if he plays like this for a 20 year span, all from natural talent. I would say David Wright and Miguel Carbrera could still be flukes, might dip in later years.

Happy 29th birthday Josh Towers.

There is no way Pujols is 26 years old.

If I'm a team in this position I would do some serious sleuthing to determine his real age.

That said, even if it were shown that Pujols was 29 he would probably still be the safest pick.

I'd have to go with Pujols. As much as I love Santana and King Felix, pitchers are simply to volatile for my liking.

My top 3 would be Pujols, Wright and Cabrera. No one else would be particularly close, either.

I'm going to assume that Pujols' real age is 26, and that the Cardinals did everything possible to verify this before signing him to a huge conract extension. Anyhow, he to me represents the best youth vs. performance combination at this time. Due to TINSTAAPP, I would want to see Hernandez have a few more healthy seasons before passing up on essentially a sure thing like Pujols or Wright.

Pujols came to America when he was "16" years old. He attened HS in Kansas City. I remember he looked a lot older than his age in his rookie season. Nobody has any proof that he isn't his announced age though.

If I had a choice, I would pick A-Rod. I would then flip him for a young established star player and a couple of prime prospects.

Sure, I'll play. Uhhh...

OK, Albert the Great, Cabrera, Wright. Pujols is such a great hitter, and it's hard to imagine his body breaking down the way Frank Thomas' did. Cabrera and Wright may (or may not) have a couple of extra seasons ahead of them, but not enough to make up for it...

As for King Felix... oh man, it is exciting to think about what he might become. But he's a teenaged pitcher and we've all been burned before. Back around 1986, everyone in the universe liked Dwight Gooden's future much more than... well, Barry Bonds, among others.

And if you were there, you will remember how we kept hearing so much about what a level-headed and poised young man Mr Gooden was.

Baseball Prospectus had a great excerpt from Dayn Perry's new book the other day, talking about Doc Gooden. I was too young to remember how good he was at the time, but an interesting read nonetheless.

The risks surrounding pitching prospects are so huge that I don't think I would choose one as my numero uno. Pujols is established, and already people are talking about the things he might do, and where he might stack up all time. He'd be my choice, with Wright number 2.

I don't get why everyone is saying David Wright. He's had only 1 good season. He could be a fluke like Hinske. His numbers are good, but not THAT good, like what Pujols or Carbrera or Teixera bring to the table. And there are still other guys with similar numbers that are young as well, like Jason Bay, Carl Crawford, and Michael Young.

I don't get why everyone is saying David Wright. He's had only 1 good season. He could be a fluke like Hinske. His numbers are good, but not THAT good, like what Pujols or Carbrera or Teixera bring to the table. And there are still other guys with similar numbers that are young as well, like Jason Bay, Carl Crawford, and Michael Young.

There's about a 0.0% chance that Wright will pull a Hinske.

He was 3 years (21) younger than Hinske (24) when he made his major league debut in 2004, after slugging .600 for a half season in in AA/AAA. He's also much more athletic than Hinske.

Pujols, Cabrera, and Bay are better at this point, but once you adjust for park (Shea is a terrible place to hit) Wright is a better hitter than Teix, Crawford, and Mike Young. The only guy on that list who is around the same age is Cabrera. Everyone else is significantly older, and much less likely to improve from their current levels of production.

That's why everyone is so high on David Wright.

"Shea is a terrible place to hit"

Tell that to all the AL pitchers. They can't seem to stop it.

Crawford and Young are not nearly of the same quality as Wright.

Jason Bay is an interesting name though. He's still below Wright in my mind, but he's a much better choice then Crawford, Young or even Teixera.

I wonder what happened to Hinske. He was good at AAA and in his rookie season with the Jays. Ever since that season, he has suffered a huge drop off in production.

I can't explain it.

It may be time to come to terms with the fact that 2002 was a fluke. His 2001 season was solid, but not spectacular. Doing an MLE calculation scales his Sacramento numbers back to a more pedestrian 254/336/458, which is not too far from his 2005 line.

First, let me say that I am a big advocate of risk. Risky moves (provided they are within reason... choosing a pitcher with a questionable mechanical delivery after half a good season isn't a reasonable risk) will, I strongly believe, pay off more in the long run than riskless moves.

That said, I can't back away from Pujols. He is so far above the level of his peers... the top young players in baseball are just hoping to develop into something like the hitter he is... a level he's established for five years now. He has to be the #1 choice, probably by a mile.

My next three choices are deliberately chosen in the reverse order of the difficulty of their defensive position. I find that players at tougher or more demanding defensive positions tend to develop less well as hitters than players at the hitter positions. It also corresponds to their order of proven ability as hitters, so I win on both ends.

Miguel Cabrera
David Wright
Joe Mauer

People forget about Mauer, that's all. He's the best young two-way player I can think of (with a nod to David Wright). There is no other young catcher, shortstop or centerfielder who's a top-notch defender that has a good bat.

Finally, I have a very tough time picking between two Indians (Sizemore and Martinez), A-Rod, Adam Dunn, Teixeira, and Vlad Guerrero.

Since I'm not limited by stupidity, and am therefore free to treat Adam Dunn like a human being instead of a chattel, or play A-Rod at shortstop instead of third base, I think those two guys shoot a bit ahead of where they otherwise might be. I expect A-Rod to continue to be a good hitter for the next ten years, and therefore I'd be pleased to take him.

So my list is Pujols, Cabrera, Wright, Mauer, Rodriguez.

There's no one in the minors that I think is at that level, where they are more likely than not to deliver big rewards, and no one that I can identify with the growth potential to be as good as A-Rod has been. If there was a guy like that, he'd probably be second on my list. Delmon Young isn't close to there, though... I see him as David Ortiz at best.

One guy who could shoot onto this list, right to #2, by about midseason is Ryan Zimmerman. I was impressed but not all that impressed by Zimmerman as a collegian... I see him as a high-average doubles hitter but not a .400 hitter like he showed in his cup of coffee. Knock 80 points of batting average off his cup of coffee performance (.397/.419/.569) and he's at about .320/.350/.460 and I could easily see him doing that for a couple of years.

If he develops home run power, though, all bets are off. If Zimmerman, who is a fine defender at third, starts knocking long balls then he suddenly becomes The New Hotness, moving David Wright to Old and Busted status.

Good one, greenfrog!

I went with Pujols. There are a lot of great young hitters in baseball but Pujols has been one of the few best hitters in baseball for five years. He's only 26 and has yet to have an OPS+ of under 155. The one I don't understand here is Felix Hernandez. He looked fabulous last year and he's only 19, but pitchers are incredibly risky. Gooden, Ankiel, Wood, Prior, Avery, and so on. I will be shocked if Wright/Cabrera etc... are not producing at a top level for the next 10 years or so. The same cannot be said for any pitcher in baseball.

I think I'd chose Pujols as you are almost guaranteed 10 years of .325/.400/.600; whereas with Wright/Cabrera you may get more years, but perhaps "only" a .300/.370/.520, with a few years at Pujols' level.

I'd maybe role the dice with a pitcher, but it'd be with King Felix after he has dominated for a couple years already. For other pitchers, I'd also consider Willis and C. Zambrano (and Harden if he didn't have his injury history).

1. Pujols
2. Cabrera
3. Wright
4. Felix
5. Willis

Others: Mauer/Peralta/Zambrano

Well, I wouldn't be shocked if a young hitter like Cabrera or Wright stopped producing. It happens all the time... the 20 best-ever RCAA performances by a 22-year-old, for example, include Bernie Carbo, Boog Powell, Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson and Jim Fregosi. It also includes Wright and Cabrera, incidentally, as well as Pujols.

A little more on Delmon Young... he'll have to convince me before I anoint him The Next One. Young's top comparables by PECOTA do include Ken Griffey, but they also include Cedeno and Tony Conigliaro (OK, those guys have extenuating circumstances), Adrian Beltre, and a bunch of guys who don't impress me all that much, like Jeff Francoeur, Jason Romano, and Chris Snelling.

Young's probably the best hitting prospect in the minors. I'd like Prince Fielder just as much if he weren't a 260-pound DH. We must be at some sort of historic low for hitter prospects right now; according to Baseball Prospectus, the second-best prospect in the minors is Jeremy Hermida, who to my mind projects to be at best a Chili Davis. There's not a lot out there...

By "best-ever", by the way, I mean "best since 1945".

"Well, I wouldn't be shocked if a young hitter like Cabrera or Wright stopped producing. It happens all the time... the 20 best-ever RCAA performances by a 22-year-old, for example, include Bernie Carbo, Boog Powell, Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson and Jim Fregosi. It also includes Wright and Cabrera, incidentally, as well as Pujols."

I think "all the time" is overstating things. It is extremely rare that a hitter has a start like Cabrera's and just falls off the table while it happens much more frequently with pitchers. Essentially, this excercise is like a fantasy draft for a keeper league where you have the #1 pick. Taking a rookie pitcher ahead of proven superstars is such a situation is crazy.

ESPN has an article, I can't find it though, saying the next 5 young pitchers who will be winning Cy Youngs. If you made this question just about pitchers, then your answer is: Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, and Zach Duke.

I would also add Huston Street and Johan Sanatana.

Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the AL right now. :) Top 3 in baseball.

Agreed 100%, unless the pitcher is far ahead of the hitters. But that's rare. See my newest two posts at Tyblog for why this is so.

I made my picks before reading anyone else's coments, and the first names that came to my mind were Harden, Peavy, Santana, and Oswalt. It I took a hitter it would be Pujols hands down.

Two words...Roy Halladay. If I were to go with a pitcher. I don't take this guy for granted. I know every fifth day in Toronto we get the best on the mound. And still not too old.

Although you might have one of the younger stars for 20 years, it means more to me to have a really sure thing for 10 years. By then you are bound to draft something decent, aren't you?

As for hitters, I'd just as soon take Pujols and know what I have for a long long time.

Mauer has some major knee issues, which is one of the reasons he didn't catch every day for the Twins.

I'd personally stay away from him and go for someone w/o any health problems.

Let me second Craig's assessment of the current crop of hitting prospects. Young, Fielder and Hermida are good, but they're not like Frank Thomas and Juan Gonzalez were, or like Manny Ramirez and Ryan Klesko, or like Vladimir Guerrero and Scott Rolen (covering from about 1989-1995). I personally think that Fielder is going to be very good for the next 5-7 years, but for a first baseman/DH to hit about 200 homers in his 20s is not a historically unusual thing.

Looking at current Major Leaguers, I think I would have to put Mauer at the top of my list. I believe strongly in the old adage "strength up the middle", and that starts with catcher. No other position player elicits more responsibility in a game, and to have a 22 year old potential Gold Glove/Silver Slugger behind the plate is too much for me to pass on.

While third base isn't up the middle, next on my list would be David Wright; young mashing third basemen with golden gloves are ever so hard to find and once again, love the age.

Normally, because of the inherent risk involved with prospects, I wouldn't consider anyone in the Minors. However there is one name that causes my jaw to drop a little, Brandon Wood. Shortstop with an incredible bat - sounds like BJ Upton minus 50 errors.

I also agree that Halladay must garner some consideration, not only on pure stuff but his influence within the organization is almost impossible to accurately describe. With his obvious skills, work ethic, and developing leadership abilities he will influence a young rotation for another decade (see his comments on coming up under the eye of Hentgen and Clemens). Who wouldn't want him pitching 220+ inning every year while mentoring Purcey, Romero, McGowan et all.

Mauer actually didn't have problems with his knee last year, but catchers don't generally age particularly well and with a knee problem already having been an issue I think he's a pretty risky pick.

Of course, I chose a 20 year old pitcher, so I'm probably not one to talk about risk.

Normally, because of the inherent risk involved with prospects, I wouldn't consider anyone in the Minors. However there is one name that causes my jaw to drop a little, Brandon Wood. Shortstop with an incredible bat - sounds like BJ Upton minus 50 errors.

Wood is an exciting prospect, but don't forget that:

(a) the California league is great for hitting (b) AA is the true test for most prospects (c) he doesn't walk all that much, and strikes out quite a bit

Even so, 20 year olds who hit 101 extra base hits are unbelievably rare. That combination of age and performance is strong evidence that Wood will develop into a superstar.

Prognosticators always get excited after an unexpected breakthrough season, and their pattern matching circuitry goes into overdrive trying to figure out who the next player of that nature might be. Naturally, people have already started throwing around names for 2006. The criteria are (a) Early round HS draft pick, (b) solid but somewhat disappointing full season debut. The name I keep seeing brought up is Reid Brignac (TB) who coincidentally is also a SS. Are there any other players who fit this profile?

Of course, performances like Wood's are so rare, that trying to predict them is next to impossible. Going into 2003, a lot of people had Brendan Harris tagged as the next Pujols, and he hasn't exactly fulfilled that prediction. Coming full circle, if Wood can adjust quickly, he could be the second coming of Albert Pujols, who in 2000 was a star at A-ball, and then played well in the AAA playoffs (actually, I think he was the MVP!)

Since this is a notes from nowhere, I'm hoping it's okay to post this tidbit here.

Buster Onley has a list of the players last year who produced the highest number of "productive outs". Russ Adams ranked ninth in all of baseball.

And Here's Onley's list of the AL's top five in productive out percentage:
Bengie Molina, L.A., .522
Juan Uribe, White Sox, .509
David DeJesus, K.C., .488
Johnny Damon, Boston, .482
Russ Adams, Tor., .456

For what it's worth ...

Good to see Rios hit a 3-run HR in the intrasquad game today.

Could you provide a definition of the "productive out" and/or a link to where this information is found?

Anything that paints Bengie Molina as an offensive dynamo has got my attention. I'm entering the season with the lowest of expectations offensively from Bengie (and the highest defensive and receiving expectations).

From ESPN's website:

"A Productive Out, as defined and developed by ESPN The Magazine and the Elias Sports Bureau: when a fly ball, grounder or bunt advances a runner with nobody out; when a pitcher bunts to advance a runner with one out (maximizing the effectiveness of the pitcher's at-bat), or when a grounder or fly ball scores a run with one out."

Buster Onley introduced the productive out stat in 2004 with great fanfare, and shorhtly after that statheads began rushing out to show that it was a useless stat. If you google "productive out" you get A) ESPN's tracking page of productive out data (from 2004), and B) Scores of baseball bloggers mocking Onley.

Might as well link to one of them:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/yet-another-productive-outs-article/

Well, I didn't say it was worth a LOT....

Hey. I'm doing the fantasy baseball thing, but is it just me or is J.D. Drew one of the most quietly underrated FANTASY players. I don't know him too much, and he may get injured a lot. How often does he get injured? Anyway,look at his stats from the last few years. (ave., obp, slg, ops)

.289 .374 .512 .886
.305 .436 .570 1.006
.286 .412 .520 .931

Like, with a full season of health, and 600 atbats, he could hit 40 hrs, .295 ave., 120 rbis, and 15 steals...

The only problem that J.D. Drew presents, as management at Chavez Ravine have discovered, is that Mr. Drew does two things quite well.

A - Hold out for money
B - Spend a significant time on the Disabled List.

Mr. Drew has played more than 130 games only 3 times since 1999. Is he a great player? Undoubtedly... but only when healthy.

Please save the fantasy talk to BBFL threads or fantasy specific threads.

--

Olney seems to have a good sense of humor about how some view productive outs. He wrote at the end of the stats that "Some baseball executives like the stat and believe it gives them a window into one part of what players do with their at-bats; the SABR world judges its value as somewhere between useless and less than useless."

Yahoo! Rios is on pace for 162 hrs and 600+ rbi's!! I'm back on the bandwagon baby... seriously though, I'm very glad we kept him b/c I think he'll have a solid year, and possibly a great next year.

Hinske apparently remodeled his swing this summer (something about the timing) and got a couple of hits too!

I know this wasn't said with all seriousness, but I implore everyone not to get worked up over any Spring Training results. After all, Gabe Gross hit 8 home runs in March last year, but only seven more over the entire six-month season, in Syracuse and Toronto.

I dont know if anyone has mentioned this yet, but courtesy of the Toronto Star...

INJURY UPDATE: Outfielder Reed Johnson underwent an MRI on his injured right elbow yesterday and was excused from the workout. He has not been able to throw for a week.

I hope Sparky's gonna be ok...

Not to get this too far off pace from the "MVP" Thread (I'd vote for Cabrera, probably), but it's important to note that Buster Olney acknowledged (this time, anyway) the sabermetric community and its view of the irrelevance of productive outs. In this week's column, Olney suggested that productive outs, if they are to be used at all, should be used as a data point for a GM to assess the overall offensive skill set of a given player.

1. Arod (He was on my fantasy team for 9 years till he
became a Yankee)

2. Teixreira (Replaced Arod that same year. AVG+HR's= MVP
2007)

3. Michael Young (The most under rated infielder in
baseball)

4. M. Cabrera (He's naked now but it want effect his
numbers.

5. Berkman (Switch hitting power machine give him a walker
and he would still be productive)

Sparky would be missed, but on the otherhand, maybe that gives guys like John F Griffin a shot... do we have any close-to-majors righties in the minors?

And re: getting excited about spring training, hey if now is not the time for blind unbridled optimism, then when is?? ;)

I'm really looking fwd to this season... will be keenly watching not only the new guys Burnett, Glaus, Ryan, Overbay, Molina (wow, those are good additions), but also the progress of Hill, Rios, Adams, Hinske and Hillenbrand's new swing mechanics, Well's performance with protection behind him, and McGowan's potential.... damn, what more can we ask for? I'd rather have this team than a bunch of superstars doing the same old thing year after year.... the only thing I'd ask for is Hudson back, so once Arizona starts tanking, JP should reacquire him ;)

Pujols as a hitter and Santana as a pitcher. I think anyone that takes a prospect over either of these guys would be making and tremendous mistake.

Spring Update:

- aparently Rios pulled another home run down the line today!!! Sounds good to me!
- Vernon Wells played today, he didn't get a hit, but ran out each of his ground outs and played centre field. I don't know about you, but I was shocked to hear this, wasn't he supposed to rest for a couple more weeks?

I guess not because he's back in the World Baseball Classic

After the Allstar break Lugo will be dealt$$$$$$
and Upton will be the everyday SS many years to come!
@ age 21 take him now for your fantasy team. A SS with
HR power doesn't come along ofthen.

If only the media would cut Rios some slack
and let him develope into a productive player.
Depending on how Wells responds this year with
more depth in the batting order, Rios could become
the Jays everyday center fielder. Food for thought!

Texmex, the layout of your posts suggested poetry rather than prose. Then again, it is season preview time, and that, undoubtedly, will mean senryu to our heart's content.

READ MY THEORY AND LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!

Personally I don’t believe in the route of picking all young players first. One being because they aren’t proven, and secondly, (most importantly!) they don’t have the consistent stats that other players have that have been around for let’s say 7 years.

The route to go is shinning star in the middle of his career. They need experienced leadership and a knack for coming up big when it counts. By fortifying your team with players like this you build a reputation throughout the league. Look at the Yankees; so many players love to play there not only because of the atmosphere but because of a VERY consistent track record. Same cannot be said for the Blue Jays who try and get by on youth, until recently. When you build yourself a solid track record players notice that and want to be part of it, balancing the hopes of a franchise worth hundreds of millions of dollars on the shoulders of young guns is not the way to go. Establish yourself with veterans that will bring in heavy revenue the first 5 years or so then begin to make logical transaction from then on forth.

All that leads me to believe that the best players for this are…

1 Albert Pujols 1B
2 A-Rod SS/3B
3 Andruw Jones CF
4 Roy Oswalt P
5 Vlad Guererro OF

Derek Lee has been over looked here probably because he’s in the shadows of baseball’s best player but I seriously recommended him for one of my choices. If this pole comes out next year and Mr.Canuck himself, Jason Bay, has another season like did, he would fill one of the OF spots for sure.

Andruw Jones?

Pujols.

I admit I don't see the appeal of Joe Mauer, who seems far more like "Mark Grace" than like, well, Albert Pujols. And there's nothing wrong with being Mark Grace, but I would certainly not want to build a team around him. (Especially now, as he's over 40.)

Actually, in some ways Mauer reminds me more of Sean Burroughs: anointed top prospect status with a complete disregard for their minor-league performance. Of course Mauer is young, and, unlike Burroughs, can actually hit, and was better coming up in the minors. So he could develop power as he fills out. But you'd like to see somebody with his reputation have hit more than five home runs once in a minor-league season. Rafael Palmeiro and Jim Edmonds, among others, didn't hit for much power in the minors, either, so obviously it's possible.

But neither did Burroughs.