TSN reports that the deal is official - 1 year, $4.5 million, with a mutual $7.5 million option or a team $500,000 buyout. The AP reported that the $4.5 million Molina is getting this year is broken out into a $1.5 million bonus and a $3 million salary.
Here are Molina's career rate stats.
Year AB BA OBP SLG 1999 101 0.257 0.312 0.337 2000 473 0.281 0.318 0.421 2001 325 0.262 0.309 0.351 2002 428 0.245 0.274 0.322 2003 409 0.281 0.304 0.443 2004 337 0.276 0.313 0.404 2005 410 0.295 0.336 0.446
Note that the Angels park factor for runs and home runs is 94 in recent years which deflated his numbers a bit. Molina ranked 5th among all catchers last year in Baseball Prospectus' EqA (Zaun was 11th).
Molina's signing and contract seem to indicate that he'll get the majority of the starts for the Jays which will push Gregg Zaun into a backup role. If I were to guess, barring injuries, I'd expect Molina to start about 100-110 games with Zaun getting the remaining starts, especially against the tougher right handed pitchers.
The other ramification of the signing is on Guillermo Quiroz. He's out of options and will have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors. Given his history the last two years, and his winter ball performance this offseason, the chance of Quiroz clearing waivers is better now than before, but probably no better than 50/50. I could see a team like the Marlins, who can afford to carry a prospect on the major league roster, picking him up.
I'm mixed about the signing. The upside to the deal is that Molina improves the team, is on a one year contract, and didn't cost anything in terms of draft picks or players (although Quiroz may be lost as a result). And of course, there likely will be more 'Too Many Molina' episodes.
The Jays payroll right now, assuming that they lose both the Walker and Hillenbrand arbitration cases, is approximately $74.5 million which is close to the $75 million the team has publically stated was their payroll for this year. (Note - assuming the Jays lose in arbitration is not my opinion, just a 'worst case' scenario. The payroll if the Jays win both cases would be a shade over $72.5 million.)
The cost of a win I believe has been estimated at $2 million and it's very possible that Molina is worth 2.5 wins to the Jays. Also, given the Hernandez signing (4 years, $27 million) and the LoDuca trade where the Mets are paying the entire salary, Molina appears to be a relative bargain.
However, I'm not certain that this was the best use of $5 million. Said another way, I don't think the difference between Zaun/Quiroz/Phillips and Molina/Zaun is that great and the money could have been better used in a different spot during the season. This of course assumes that the Jays are unwilling to add payroll if they're in a pennant race. They haven't said anything publically but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the team to loosen the purse strings if they were in contention. If that's the case I don't see much downside, if any, in the move.
