Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Baseball America released their top ten prospects on-line today. The list was available to magazine subscribers a week ago. The top ten are, in order, Dustin McGowan; Ricky Romero; David Purcey; Adam Lind; Josh Banks; Casey Janssen; Brandon League; Franciso Rosario; Curtis Thigpen; and Vince Perkins.

Before we start discussing the BA list a little refresh is in order. BA rank prospects based on tools and potential. BA looks at a players ceiling and they use that evaluation as the basis for their ranking. Recent draft picks, especially high round picks, score high with BA, as they admit "pedigree is important". A position player with speed and some power will also score well, better than a player who is slow and hits home runs. A pitcher who throws 95 will generally score better than one who throws in the 80's.

The prospect forecasting business is somewhat unreliable, about half of the top ten prospects never last in the major leagues. Within that uncertain environment BA do a very good job. They talk to the clubs, minor league managers and coaches, and minor league scouts to develop a complete picture of each player.

Last years top 10

The top 10 last year were, in order, Brandon League, Aaron Hill, Guillermo Quiroz, Francisco Rosario, David Purcey, Russ Adams, Dustin McGowan, Zach Jackson, Josh Banks and Gustavo Chacin. Three of these ten lost their rookie status with the Blue Jays. Jackson was traded. Of the remaining six, three rankings went up and three went down, Quiroz right out of the top ten. It was unfortunate that the three who went down were ranked numbers 1, 3 and 4. League dropped six places, Rosario four, and Quiroz an unknown amount. Of this years top ten five are returnees with McGowan moving up the most. Romero is a 2005 pick and four moved into the top ten. Janssen had the biggest move from number 30 last year, Lind moved up from 17, Thigpen 15 and Perkins 13.

BA compared to Batters Box

There is little disagreement between BA and Batters Box. BA values Ricky Romero higher than Da Box, not surprising given BA's penchant for high draft picks. I am somewhat surprised that Adam Lind scored as high as he did with BA. Lind has two above average tools, hitting for average and power, and is below average in speed and fielding tools. BA included Brandon League although he spent a lot of time on the Jays roster last season but his inning count was low enough to qualify him. BA likes Josh Banks more than Casey Janssen, Da Box had the opposite view. It is encouraging to see BA still ranks Francisco Rosario in the top ten. Rosario did not have a great 2005 and was switched to the bullpen but he still has excellent "stuff" and had a reasonable AAA ERA of 3.95. And finally Canadian pitcher Vince Perkins comes in at #10. Batters box spoke with Perkins last season.

Dustin McGowan   BA #1; BBox #1
Ricky Romero     BA #2; BBox #6
David Purcey     BA #3; BBox #2
Adam Lind        BA #4; BBox #4
Josh Banks       BA #5; BBox #7
Casey Janssen    BA #6; BBox #3
Brandon League   BA #7; BBox unranked
Franciso Rosario BA #8; BBox #9
Curtis Thigpen   BA #9; BBox #11
Vince Perkins    BA #10; BBox #13

Organization rankings

BA's organization rankings are not done yet but I am sure we will hear today that BA ranks the Jays in the bottom half of the thirty teams. In the Yankee chat earlier this week John Manuel rated the AL East organizations as Red Sox, Devil Rays, Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays. The first three teams on that list have some good prospects but it is bad to be ranked behind the Yankees farm system. The Blue Jays did promote Russ Adams, Aaron Hill and Gustavo Chacin last season and lost Zach Jackson in a trade. It hurt that the three of the top four prospects did not have good years.

As stated in the introduction BA values tools, the Jays value speed to the major leagues. Pitchers like Romero, Banks and Janssen are average in the eyes of BA as they throw 91-92, Lind is not a five tool player. But BA's organizational rankings are driven to a large extent off the top of the list and the Jays have questions at the top. McGowan had mixed results in the major leagues last year and pitchability is a concern, Romero profiles as a #3 starter according to BA, while Purcey has control issues. So it is not a surprise that the Jays would rank low in BA. BA rates the system poorly as they don't see many stars. The Jays are more optimistic as they see many regulars, including eight pitchers some of whom will be used as trade bait. But don't get caught up in the ranking. The Yankees were the number 24 organization last year and gave the parent club Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. Baltimore were number 25 and Chris Ray, Hayden Penn and John Maine all look like they will help the Orioles this year.

BA Chat

BA will conduct a chat for subscribers this afternoon. The chat is copyright to BA so please no reproductions, paraphrase if you must.

New Depth Chart

With all the recent signings and trades it can be hard to keep track of the Jay's system and the players. The latest Blue Jay depth chart is here.

Posted by Gerry on Friday, January 13 2006 @ 12:01 AM EST.

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects | 56 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Ron - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 01:46 AM EST (#139593) #

- I wonder where BA would place GQ among the Jays prospects. I'm starting to get the feeling he's a bust.

- Brandon League's stock is also dropping. The Jays dropped the ball on League last season. I remember pointing out last year that I was stunned the Jays brass said League had nothing left to prove in the minors during ST. That was a strange comment considering League didn't even throw one pitch at the AAA level at the time. He was a disaster in the Majors and at AAA last season. Before League was sent down, Arnsberg lowered League's arm slot. This did nothing to help his game. If he doesn't bounce back next season, he's probably going to get passed on the depth chart by players like Marcum and Banks.

- Looking at the Top 10 list, the Jays have no depth in terms of position players.

- I thought the Jays should have drafted Cameron Maybin last season but they took Romero. It will be interesting to look back 10 years from now to see who performs better.

Cristian - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 02:19 AM EST (#139594) #

Thanks for the updated depth chart Gerry. With all the movement this offseason (and the potential for more changes to come) I was wondering when you were going to take the plunge and update it.

Nick - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 02:25 AM EST (#139597) #

To follow Ron's comment and for those who didn't see it, JP recently commented that the club did League a "disservice" last year and will likely start him out in AAA in 2006. He did not specify whether as a reliever or starter, but I would expect the former.

bj birdie - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 03:34 AM EST (#139598) #

i am interested in where Sergio Santos falls in the BA rankings. Particluarly given that BA made reference to him landing just outside the top 10 on a stud Arizona Top 10, not that one has bearing on the other, I am a bit surprised that Santos didn't land in the lower half of the jays Top 10.

Squiggy - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 08:01 AM EST (#139603) #

I'm confused - i thought JP was hired in large part for his ability to spot and develop young talent, so I am surprised at the lack of high-ceiling prospects this far into his regime. Is this due to the fact that we are still in early days, or are the rankings historically not a good indicator of farm system strength. Anybody remember what the Jays organizational ranking was in the Gord Ash days?

dp - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 09:50 AM EST (#139617) #

I'm confused - i thought JP was hired in large part for his ability to spot and develop young talent, so I am surprised at the lack of high-ceiling prospects this far into his regime.

I've been one of the more vocal JP critics here for a while, and while this seems like a problem, the reason the farm system is so devoid of top-level talent is that Bush, Adams and Hill all made the majors pretty quickly. I don't think any of those guys are front-line talent, which is a problem, but had he drafted guys that wouldn't develop quickly, that'd be 3 more prospects for BA's top 10...

I've been told by JP's supporters here that this was all part of the plan, and that once the team was competitive he'd start going for higher ceiling players. That seems reasonable to me, although I still don't see why the Jays drafted shortstops 2 years in a row when the organization was stocked with them at the time...between Lopez, Izturis and Hudson, the Jays could've been set up the middle for a while.

Skills - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 09:55 AM EST (#139619) #

Question about the Depth Chart: Didn't Davis Romero got taken in the Rule 5 Draft?

Mike Green - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 10:04 AM EST (#139621) #

Mike Green - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 10:10 AM EST (#139622) #

Nope, Skills. Jamie Vermilyea and Steve Andrade were.

dp - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 10:49 AM EST (#139627) #

College middle infielders picked in the first round have turned out better than any other group by a large margin. Many of them end up at other positions. Russ Adams could very well have been moved to the outfield and Aaron Hill probably could have been a very fine third baseman.

I'm not sure Hill will hit enough to be anything but average at 3B, especially given the strong crop of 3B in the majors now or coming up soon (Wright, Marte, Blalock, Cabrera, Encarnacion, Tracy, Stewart, then the guys already there- A-Rod, Chipper, Mora, Glaus). Adams, there's nothing in his minor league career to indicate he can hit enough to handle anything but SS. Neither of these guys had superstar potential when drafted. Adams IIRC got compared to Walt Weiss- a serviceable player if your team needs a SS, but the Jays didn't. They actually cleared space projecting Adams. The moves don't look that different now except that none of the Jays strong hitting prospects developed- Gross is out of the org, Rios is Rios, Phelps flopped, Lopez is gone, GQ is a huge question mark. JP seemed to be trying to draft the role players not the superstars on the gamble that superstars are a longshot dice roll and you're better off buying them later instead of paying for their development time. That's where we're at heading into '06, I guess we'll see how it works. The players seem to have developed the way they were supposed to, so in that respect he's been very successful.

Incidently, there was a BPro writeup on the Ash era Jays that said their biggest weakness was being unable to find the role players needed to complement their excellent front-line talent, and to me, it has always seemed JP was reacting to that problem.

VGeras - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 11:03 AM EST (#139628) #

Purcey not happy about his 05 saeson

http://bluejays.scout.com/2/488348.html

Mike Green - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 11:51 AM EST (#139631) #

For what it's worth, I think Aaron Hill is front line talent although I worry about the position change to second. But then, as you can tell from the Hall Watch series, I have always felt that players of his ilk, broad-based talents with relatively little flash, have been undervalued.

Ryan Day - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 11:54 AM EST (#139632) #

I think we are starting to see more high-ceiling/less-refined players in the system. Sergio Santos is the obvious example - huge tools, according to everyone, but hasn't put it together. David Purcey's got fantastic stuff but enough control problems to keep him from success in the majors. Cheng and Keng are both projects.

Interesting to see that BA is still fairly high on Negron: Fastest Baserunner, Best Outfield Arm and Best Defensive Outfielder. If he can hit just a little bit more, he could be a fine fourth outfielder.

timpinder - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 12:18 PM EST (#139633) #

dp,

Adams had a .283 AVG in the minors with a .364 OBP. In only 553 major league at bats, he's hit .262/.329/.401, with 12 HR's and 29 doubles. I think that's pretty good for a rookie, and I think he'll be at least an average major league SS. ESPN's Insider scouting report ranks Adams as having Average-Plus defensive and offensive skills.

As for Hill, he hit .295 and slugged .423 in the minors with 20 HR's in about 800 at bats. His OBP was not available on baseballcube, but based on individual years, it looked to be around .375. He has a good arm and is probably better suited to 3B in my opinion, but I think he'll be fine defensively at 2B. He has a nice compact swing with very few moving parts, and he's two years younger than Adams. His power numbers will probably end up being comparable to Hillenbrand's, or maybe better, but with a much higher OBP because of his superior plate discipline. His hitting would be just fine for a 3B in my opinion.

I agree with Mike Green that players like Hill are undervalued. Negron is a flashy 5-tool player, but I'm beginning to wonder if he'll ever sniff the majors. Meanwhile, Hill is only 23 and should be a solid contributer this year despite his frame and lack of "flash".

timpinder - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 12:21 PM EST (#139634) #

Bauxites,

Is BA underestimating Romero when they project him as a #3 starter?

Pistol - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 12:28 PM EST (#139635) #

I suspect the Jays wouldn't have drafted Romero sixth overall if they projected him as a #3 starter.

For what it's worth, John Sickels had Romero in his top 50 minor league pitchers (somewhere in the 40s).

Mylegacy - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 12:45 PM EST (#139637) #

The draft is really tough. If you want REALLY high end POTENTIAL you have to either draft HS kids and hope 5 years on they are what you hoped they would be, or draft college STARS. Each draft usually only has two to five CAN'T MISS guys.

In my view JP's trying to draft guys that WILL PLAY in the bigs. That way he can fill holes and have bodies for trades a la Overbay.

Romero, Purcey, Jackson, Banks, Marcum, Bush, Janssen etal are AT LEAST certain to make the bigs and when added to Ash leftovers McGowan, Rosario and League they give us at least 6 to 9 CHEAP, for six years each, at least DECENT pitchers. We can then pay a lot for 2 to 4 STARS to give us an overall very good to excellent pitching staff.

Hill, Adams, Lind, Thigpen and Cannon are all examples of position players that are SURE to make the bigs.

Pitching is 90% of the game, Hitting is 50% of the game, defense is 30% of the game and the mental part is the other 43.63% of the game. Did that add up to more than 100%?

MatO - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 01:06 PM EST (#139638) #

The Adams/Weiss comparison again. Trying to stay calm......

These lists that everyone puts out are very nice for starting a discussion but we need to not take them so seriously. They're just opinions. We'll have to wait to see how things actually play out. Mike Moffat did a study of past 14th (or so) overall draft picks, approximately where Adams and Hill were picked and the results were not pretty. To get 2 major league players out of that slot is terrific. They picked what they felt was the best college player available. Period. When you're picking in those slots the upside is unknown.

MatO - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 01:17 PM EST (#139639) #

BA lists Mcgowan has having the best slider in the minors. Does he even throw a slider? He's always been a curveball pitcher from what I know.

R Billie - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 02:57 PM EST (#139642) #

Live chat is currently underway at BA.

Newton - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 03:04 PM EST (#139643) #

Re: Drafting players at positions of organisational strength

The MLB draft and minor league development programs are essentially about 1 thing: identifying and maximixing assets.

Major League Calibre SS's are in short supply (by definition there can be only 12 or so above average MLB shortstops on the planet)and are generally capable of shifting to other infield positions better than players who begin their pro careers elsewhere.

If you are confident a guy will become an MLB SS you have to nab him regardless of how many you may already have.

MatO - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 03:06 PM EST (#139644) #

Live chat used to be free. Anything interesting mentioned during the chat?

R Billie - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 04:45 PM EST (#139660) #

Summarizing some points:

- Banks over Janssen because of the splitter and more advanced at a younger age

- Jackson ranked 5th with Jays, 10th with Brewers

- Santos did not make cutoff, would have ranked 7th-9th

- Patterson centres ball well to all fields despite unorthodox swing

- club hasn't given up on Y-Rod who had a lot of confidence and adjustment problems in low-A

- Roberts shows ability as a hitter but could be below average at 2B; was drafted at 3B

- Romero rates about 55 out of 80 on stuff; could improve given age and lack of pro experience

- sleepers include 2B Wes Stone, RHP Jesse Litsch, SS Jesus Gonzalez, 2B Sean Shoffit

- if McGowan regains pre-TJ fastball command and improves feel of secondary pitches "he absolutely has No. 1 starter stuff"; interesting note, the top ten list now shows his changeup as his second pitch

- Cannon ranked 16-20, needs to refine strikezone command, hit lefties better, defensively limited, just so-so in AA but that team was poor offensively

- Rosario and League appear to have paths to the big leagues as relievers given the current starting depth chart

- Jesus Gonzalez missed top 30...could be included if he improves with bat

- Quiroz retains raw power and throwing arm but looked sloppy behind the plate in the AFL

- Thigpen is athletic and made good strides as a catcher and improved with the bat towards the end of his AA stint

- Yates rates a 70 with his curveball, best in organization; fastball 88-90 hits 92 consistently in relief; only Janssen improved more in 2005

- Marcum could start but may fit better in relief...some see him as an 8th inning pitcher; has closer's makeup; gets in trouble in fastball counts

- club optimistic about Davis Romero but may be limited to relief because of his size; needs to develop changeup; deceptive velocity up to 92, sweeping curve, low-3/4 delivery

- Lind worked hard in LF, some improvement, Jays believe he improved hitting as he became comfortable in left, may peak in Lyle Overbay territory, good average, doubles, around 20 hr

- Negron looks more of a utility outfielder with good tools

- McGowan more likely for '07 in rotation

slitheringslider - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 05:11 PM EST (#139665) #

Hill, Adams, Lind, Thigpen and Cannon are all examples of position players that are SURE to make the bigs

Hill, Adams, Lind, and Thigpen, I would say a very good chance, but I am skeptical about Cannon. Da Box ranked him #13 and I am not sure where BA or John Sickels ranked him, but he is surely not in the top 10. While Cannon does has a good power stroke, he strikes out too much and does not hit high enough for average. That profiles out to your standard all or nothing homerun hitter, but this type of hitter is becoming obsolete in the Majors (Think Tony Batista, 30+ HR and without a job after 2004). He also had a tough time adjusting to AA pitching, his .OBP failed to crack .300. In order to produce in the big leagues, he need to show he is capable of hitting breaking pitches, and take a few more walks to be considered a real major league prospect.

On a side not, who is Manuel Mayerson? HE is listed as the Best Defensive Infielder and having the best infield arm, does anyone know who he is? From what it seems he is a Johnny Mac clone.

timpinder - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 05:43 PM EST (#139668) #

Again, what is wrong with Lee Gronkiewicz? He's never mentioned yet he probably has the best numbers of any pitcher in the Jays system. His ERA has never been over 3.03, his WHIP has never been higher than 1.22, his minor league K/9 is 9.48 I believe, and he accumulated 30 saves between AA and AAA last year.

Glevin - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 05:46 PM EST (#139669) #

"ESPN's Insider scouting report ranks Adams as having Average-Plus defensive and offensive skills."

I wish I could remember where I saw it, but there was one site that just listed Adams as the worst defensive player in baseball last year. (obviously considering position). That's highly subjective, but I doubt you'd find anyone who thinks he wasn't bad last year and considering his home ballpark last year, his offensive numbers were very poor. (.659 OPS on the road). Hill could develop into a good hitter. I like how quick his bat is and he seems to have baseball instincts, but he only hit 3 HRs in 361 ABs last year which is hardly inspiring. Another worry, is that both these guys, and Rios as well, actually got worse in the second half of the year. Adams started walking but lost all his power, Rios just sucked and Hill was even worse.

First Half (all-star break) OPS vs second half
Rios-.738/.654
Hill-.869/.607
Adams-..734/.684

Glevin - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 05:54 PM EST (#139670) #

"We'll have to wait to see how things actually play out. Mike Moffat did a study of past 14th (or so) overall draft picks, approximately where Adams and Hill were picked and the results were not pretty."

The strange thing about it, is the Jays were very deep at SS. They had Izturis and Lopez who were both 21 or so at the time. It seemed like the last position the Jays needed. Also, at least in Adams case, his ceiling wasn't high. 14th pick in the draft is early enought to try to get someone who has the potential to be a star.

Rob - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 05:59 PM EST (#139671) #

Well, Gronk was mentioned here in the Batter's Box Top 30 Propsects (#26). Jonny's commentary included, "The goal for Game Over Gronk is to be the next in the Jason Frasor line."

I'd like to see the Jays give him a shot (the Frasor comparison is a very good one), but the bullpen is very good as it is and Gronk's already 27. (Not that he's too old to debut in the majors and be a successful reliever, but my hopes aren't high.)

Glevin - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 06:16 PM EST (#139672) #

"Mike Moffat did a study of past 14th (or so) overall draft picks, approximately where Adams and Hill were picked and the results were not pretty."

From 1990-2002, the players picked 13th and 14th included Manny Ramirez, Cliff Floyd, Ron Villone, Derek Lee, Paul Konerko, Jason Varitek, Mark Redman, Jeff Weaver, Casey Kotchman, and Khalil Greene as well as a number of guys who have had decent major league careers. There is a lot of talent available in the middle of the 1st round. For example, the 3 picks after Adams were Kazmir, Swisher, and Cole Hamels. Guys like Matt Cain and Joe Blanton were also taken later in the 1st round.

Glevin - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 06:37 PM EST (#139673) #

"Romero, Purcey, Jackson, Banks, Marcum, Bush, Janssen etal are AT LEAST certain to make the bigs and when added to Ash leftovers McGowan, Rosario and League they give us at least 6 to 9 CHEAP, for six years each, at least DECENT pitchers"

There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. The old Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen thing. Those guys were all better prospects than any of the Jays' guys is now and only Isringhausen was able to forge a decent career (albeit as a closer). Not all of those guys will make it and there's no guarantee they will be able to succeed in the majors. Pitchers are very unpredictable.

"Each draft usually only has two to five CAN'T MISS guys"

But at some point you have to get one or two of them. Take J.P.'s first draft in 2001 for example. Before they had a chance to pick, Mauer, Prior, Teixera, Kotchman and a couple of other decent looking players were gone. The Jays took Gross, but the Mets picking 18th and 38th got Aaron Heilman and David Wright. The A's picking 25th and 26th took Bonderman and Bobby Crosby. You have to make your picks count. Look at the Jays 1st rounders 1990-2000

Karsay, Green, Stewart, Carpenter, Kevin Witt, Halladay, Koch, Wells, Lopez, Rios, Negron. That's simply fabulous drafting.

Mark - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 06:40 PM EST (#139674) #

2002 was JP's first draft.

JayFan0912 - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 06:45 PM EST (#139675) #

Re. Adams

I hope the jays sign marcus giles or soriano next year and shift hill to SS. It's a shame, having a better offensive player in hill, who can play better SS than adams, stuck at 2B. To me it seemed adams was uncomfortable and unconfident at SS most of last year, hurrying throws, and bobbling the ball. I really don't think his arm was the problem ... it's just that hill seemed smooth out there.

I am also happy with the roster assembled so far, with the only exception being hinske. I would much rather give JFG a chance in the majors.

Glevin - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 07:27 PM EST (#139676) #

"2002 was JP's first draft."

Oops,of course. It doesn't change my point though.

mathesond - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 09:03 PM EST (#139680) #

Is unconfident a word?

MatO - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 09:19 PM EST (#139681) #

Glevin you made my point. What was that, maybe
4 star quality players out of 26 picks? Greene was picked right before Adams. It is widely assumed that the Jays would have picked him if he was available. Kazmir only dropped so far because of signability issues. Hamels has had injury issues. Blanton and Cain? Well, Bush was picked after them.

What I see in Adams is an athletic player with decent power and a good batting eye.

timpinder - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 09:25 PM EST (#139682) #

Glevin,
Adams certainly was bad last year with his 26 errors, but it was his rookie year. I fully expect him to improve in 2006. He has the tools, he just needs experience IMO.

Jayfan0912,
I agree with you. I was surprised when J.P. announced that Adams would play SS and Hill would play 2B. I was certain they'd switch positions.

CeeBee - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 09:56 PM EST (#139685) #

Is 26 errors for a rookie shorstop really that much? I tried to find rookie shortstop fielding comparisions but have not had too much success so far, other than going through my baseball encyclopdia by hand.

John Northey - Friday, January 13 2006 @ 11:32 PM EST (#139687) #

26 errors? No big deal. Tony Fernandez, in his first season as the starter at SS (1985) had 30. He then won the Gold Glove for the next 4 seasons in a row.

To me the big question is range and will he grow into the position (ie: get better year in, year out).

GeoffAtMac - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 12:30 AM EST (#139689) #

JayFan0912 mentioned JFG. I too would like to see him get a little bit of playing time. But the roster is so full, it seems unlikely unless injury, or trade scenarios force him to the bigs.

HollywoodHartman - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 12:31 AM EST (#139690) #

" As of this date, the Jays have sold 46% more tickets than they had a year ago this time. Season ticket renewals, normally slow, are coming in at a surprising pace."

-Steve Simmons

Wow... it's kinda tough to believe those #s but if it's true thats flat out amazing. BTW isn't it about time for a new roundup thread, I had no idea where to post this.

mendocino - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 01:00 AM EST (#139692) #

Izturis was traded to the Dodgers on Dec. 13 2001, almost six months before Adams was drafted.

Prospect Pulse
Players who play premium positions matter more than organizational depth on draft day
By John Manuel

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/050630pulse.html

R Billie - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 04:44 AM EST (#139695) #

Adams has more problems than just the errors. There are all the plays not made which the errors don't show. He has a long way to go and unlike Fernandez, I doubt he has the tools to win a gold glove. At least not at shortstop.

CeeBee - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 07:25 AM EST (#139696) #

It's his errors that seem to get mentioned a lot so thats why I brought it up. I feel that rookies almost always go through not only a hitting adjustment but especially a fielding adjustment. Also the turf may be a factor as it was the first year the Jays played on it so his late season callup in 04 didn't help him much fielding wise I'd say. For as long as I've been watching baseball I've seen rookies come and go, many get better , some dont but I really think we need to give him a bit longer than 1 year before we decide he's not good enought to play shortstop in the majors. :)

mathesond - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 10:38 AM EST (#139697) #

I dunno , CeeBee, in this era of immediate gratification, one year seems plenty enough to show whether or not a player is a keeper or not :)

BumpWills - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 11:24 AM EST (#139699) #

Russ Adams ranked last in 2005 amongst AL-SS in both zone rating and fielding percentage.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=7&season=2005&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating

Expanding this selection to show players with less playing time we can see that Hill played 121 innings at SS in 2005 and had an excellent zone rating to go with a 1.000 fielding percentage.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=7&season=2005&seasonType=2&split=82&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=zoneRating&qualified=0

Personally I think Hill is the better defender and should play SS. Move Adams over to 2B and see if he can get comfortable.

Adams actually showed a nice skill set in 2005. His numbers were depressed by an unlucky 27.6% hit rate. Adams BB-rate, K-rate and power numbers in 2005 were amost identicle to R. Furcal's (31% hit rate). I think it is reaasonable to expect a .750 to .800 OPS from Adams in 2006. At his age further improvement is also likely.

garth - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 11:43 AM EST (#139700) #

Reviewing the depth chart I see that Negron is listed in LF. I thought he was an amazing CF and this is where he had value (other than his unfulfilled tool potential). Has he been bumped from his role?

Glevin - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 11:56 AM EST (#139701) #

"His numbers were depressed by an unlucky 27.6% hit rate. Adams BB-rate, K-rate and power numbers in 2005 were amost identicle to R. Furcal's (31% hit rate)."

I don't understand exactly what this means, but I don't buy that players have significantly altered numbers over 500 ABs or so due to luck. It happens IMO with relief pitchers because A) Their numbers are so relient on other pitchers and B) they pitch so few innings. Furcal will get more hits than Adams if their other numbers are the essentially the same, because while Adams has decent speed, Furcal is one of the fastest guys in baseball. Adams will probably improve, but he had a .684 OPS after the break (and one under .500 in September) last year so a jump to an .800 OPS seems overly optimistic.

Gerry - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 12:07 PM EST (#139702) #

Although Negron is thought to be the best CF in the organization, last year Mike Basso at AA played Justin Singleton in CF and put Negron in LF. So at least one manager thinks Negron is the second best CF in the organization. Basso is now at AAA and if he has the same two players I assume he will give them the same roles.

Jim - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 03:45 PM EST (#139706) #

I just got my hands on a New Britain Rock Cats 2006 schedule and I'm quite annoyed. Why it's nice that the Rock Cats open at home with the Fisher Cats - they play 8 times (2 series) in New Britain and play 13 games (4 series)in New Hampshire. Thanks a lot Eastern League.

Jim - Saturday, January 14 2006 @ 03:51 PM EST (#139707) #

And for those of you who enjoy watching minor league teams squabble:

Norwich changed their name to the Connecticut Defenders, a reference to the nearby sub base in Groton. This has upset New Britain, and in the schedule they call and abbreviate every team by the city they play in, except 'Connecticut'. They only refer to them as Defenders (Giants), and their abbreviation is DF.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, January 16 2006 @ 12:00 AM EST (#139772) #

USA Today Sports Weekly has a high opinion of the Jays farm system in its latest issue. It ranks the Jays 7th overall in its power rankings of the top minor league systems.

Dustin McGowan is listed as the top pitcher and Adam Lind is the top hitter. Josh Banks, Casey Janssen, Shaun Marcum, and David Purcey are listed in the next tier of prospects as the "Cream of the Crop". The "Up and Coming Prospects" are Miguel Negron, Ryan Roberts, Yuber Rodriguez, and Curtis Thigpen. The "Sleepers" are Chip Cannon, Robinzon Diaz, Lee Gronkiewicz, and Kyle Yates.

As for the rest of the AL East - the Yankees are 16th in the minor league rankings, Baltimore 22nd, Tampa Bay 24th, and Boston 25th.

CeeBee - Monday, January 16 2006 @ 07:56 AM EST (#139774) #

That ought to cause Boston fans a few sleepless nights.

Mike Green - Monday, January 16 2006 @ 10:04 AM EST (#139776) #

The suggestion that the Red Sox have the worst farm system in the division is not credible, unless one is treating Marte and Papelbon as major leaguers already.

Jim - Monday, January 16 2006 @ 10:20 AM EST (#139777) #

Tampa Bay 24th? Quite a publication USA Today has there.

Glevin - Monday, January 16 2006 @ 05:56 PM EST (#139797) #

"The suggestion that the Red Sox have the worst farm system in the division is not credible, unless one is treating Marte and Papelbon as major leaguers already."

And Lester. They have a few of the top prospects in all of baseball. What a strange list.

MattAtBat - Monday, January 16 2006 @ 08:17 PM EST (#139810) #

While not defending their list, I would like to point out that after the few top prospects at the top of their list, the Red Sox organizational depth is rather shabby -- and its depletion was only further stimulated by the trade for Beckett and Lowell.

As for Tampa Bay at 24, well... that's just crazy talk.

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