The story of Bert Blyleven's career has been told many times in the last few years. So, we will give it a brief re-telling. With his greater than 50% share in this year, there is still the possibility that the writers will eventually choose him.
If one ignores the won-loss column, Bert Blyleven is easily the best starting pitcher not in the Hall of Fame, and he is better than many in there. But before we get to that, here is a brief recap of his career. Blyleven was chosen by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 1969 draft. By the summer of 1970, he was in the major leagues at age 19. Possessing the best curveball in baseball, he was consistently excellent and durable for his first six and one-half years with Minnesota, and then with Texas for a year and half, and Pittsburgh for two.
But, he'd put up homely won-loss records. Take 1972. He threw 287 innings, walked 69, struck out 228 and allowed 22 homers, and put up a fine 2.73 ERA . His won-loss mark was 17-17. If it happens once, it's bad luck. Maybe, just maybe, if it happens twice. In 1973, he made 40 starts and threw 325 innings including 25 complete games, 9 of which were shutouts. He knocked his ERA down to 2.52 and improved all of his peripheral statistics. His won-loss mark was 20-17; if you don't count the shutouts, he was 11-17 with a 3.13 ERA.It did not stop there. For eight straight years at the start of his career, he won fewer games than one would expect from his offence and his runs allowed. It amounted to a total of 26 wins fewer than expected over that period.
In 1979, Blyleven starred for the "We are Family" Pirates in the post-season throwing a complete game victory in the playoffs and earning another victory in the World Series. 1980 was Blyleven's first off-season. That season was a dismal one for the Pirates as the newspapers were filled with stories about Curtis Strong and cocaine in the clubhouse, and the club that had been so fine between 1977 and 1979 fell fast. Perhaps dealing with these troubles helped Blyleven, as he seemed to be a different pitcher after 1980.
After the 1980 season, Blyleven was traded with Manny Sanguillen to the Cleveland Indians. The team was a poor one over the next 4 seasons, but Blyleven shone despite a poor defence (the 1981 club put up a miserable .679 DER, the lowest of the era) and poor offensive support. In 1984, he went 19-7 in 245 innings with a 2.87 ERA on bad ballclub. Did his won-loss record improve because he was older and wiser than he had been, or did the fates simply pay him back for the lean Twins' years?
In August 1985, he was traded from the Indians back to the Twins for a package including a young Jay Bell. He gave the Twins 2 fine seasons in 1986 and 1987, and earned his second ring in 1987 with a fine post-season. For his career, he was 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in October. He had one good year left in him at age 38 for California, going 17-5 with a 2.75 ERA.
In the second half of his career, Blyleven was not as effective as he had been in the first, but he won at about the same rate, and actually exceeded the wins that could have been expected of him by 3.
So, what of his Hall of Fame case? For comparison points, we will use Ferguson Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, and Early Wynn.
Here is a list of starters currently in the Hall of Fame, who threw after 1950 and were not Blyleven's equal: Jim Bunning, Don Drysdale, Catfish Hunter, and Bob Lemon. The above comparables, as well as Phil Niekro and Robin Roberts, are fairly similar to Blyleven. He's a solid middle of the pack Hall of Fame starter.
Next up: Jack Morris.
If one ignores the won-loss column, Bert Blyleven is easily the best starting pitcher not in the Hall of Fame, and he is better than many in there. But before we get to that, here is a brief recap of his career. Blyleven was chosen by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 1969 draft. By the summer of 1970, he was in the major leagues at age 19. Possessing the best curveball in baseball, he was consistently excellent and durable for his first six and one-half years with Minnesota, and then with Texas for a year and half, and Pittsburgh for two.
But, he'd put up homely won-loss records. Take 1972. He threw 287 innings, walked 69, struck out 228 and allowed 22 homers, and put up a fine 2.73 ERA . His won-loss mark was 17-17. If it happens once, it's bad luck. Maybe, just maybe, if it happens twice. In 1973, he made 40 starts and threw 325 innings including 25 complete games, 9 of which were shutouts. He knocked his ERA down to 2.52 and improved all of his peripheral statistics. His won-loss mark was 20-17; if you don't count the shutouts, he was 11-17 with a 3.13 ERA.It did not stop there. For eight straight years at the start of his career, he won fewer games than one would expect from his offence and his runs allowed. It amounted to a total of 26 wins fewer than expected over that period.
In 1979, Blyleven starred for the "We are Family" Pirates in the post-season throwing a complete game victory in the playoffs and earning another victory in the World Series. 1980 was Blyleven's first off-season. That season was a dismal one for the Pirates as the newspapers were filled with stories about Curtis Strong and cocaine in the clubhouse, and the club that had been so fine between 1977 and 1979 fell fast. Perhaps dealing with these troubles helped Blyleven, as he seemed to be a different pitcher after 1980.
After the 1980 season, Blyleven was traded with Manny Sanguillen to the Cleveland Indians. The team was a poor one over the next 4 seasons, but Blyleven shone despite a poor defence (the 1981 club put up a miserable .679 DER, the lowest of the era) and poor offensive support. In 1984, he went 19-7 in 245 innings with a 2.87 ERA on bad ballclub. Did his won-loss record improve because he was older and wiser than he had been, or did the fates simply pay him back for the lean Twins' years?
In August 1985, he was traded from the Indians back to the Twins for a package including a young Jay Bell. He gave the Twins 2 fine seasons in 1986 and 1987, and earned his second ring in 1987 with a fine post-season. For his career, he was 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in October. He had one good year left in him at age 38 for California, going 17-5 with a 2.75 ERA.
In the second half of his career, Blyleven was not as effective as he had been in the first, but he won at about the same rate, and actually exceeded the wins that could have been expected of him by 3.
So, what of his Hall of Fame case? For comparison points, we will use Ferguson Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, and Early Wynn.
Pitcher IP(seasons) ERA+ K/9IP(Lg) W/9IP(Lg) HR/9IP(Lg) Team DER(Lg) W-L Blyleven 4970.0(18.3) 118 6.7(5.3) 2.4(3.4) 0.8(0.8) 698(703) 287-250 Jenkins 4500.7(15.5) 115 6.4(5.2) 2.0(3.3) 1.0(0.8) 689(701) 284-226 Perry 5350.3(18.4) 117 5.9(5.4) 2.3(3.3) 0.7(0.8) 695(701) 314-265 Wynn 4564.0(18.2) 106 4.6(4.1) 3.5(3.8) 0.7(0.7) 710(708) 300-244With respect to every measure save the won-loss record, Blyleven was better than these Hall of Famers. I will acknowledge that Blyleven may have contributed to this partially, but so did his bullpen and his offence. Splitting the difference on the 23 wins less than expected he had over his career (half to him, half to his offence/bullpen) would result in a record of 298-239, essentially comparable to these fine pitchers. I make Blyleven to be in this class.
Here is a list of starters currently in the Hall of Fame, who threw after 1950 and were not Blyleven's equal: Jim Bunning, Don Drysdale, Catfish Hunter, and Bob Lemon. The above comparables, as well as Phil Niekro and Robin Roberts, are fairly similar to Blyleven. He's a solid middle of the pack Hall of Fame starter.
Next up: Jack Morris.
