Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

136 wins, 116 losses. 1,230 runs scored, 1,056 runs allowed, representing a 144-108 pythagorean record. A win in the All Star Game. A four game sweep in the World Series. That is how the American League dominated the National League in 2005. What about 2006?

Just over 100 players have switched leagues this offseason, and I suspected that the American League was getting the better of many of these transactions. In order to investigate the suspicion, I constructed lists of the players who have switched leagues. Many of these players will likely be of little consequence (the D'Backs got Mulholland, the imbalance is corrected!), so the lists that you see below are of the top ten position players and the top ten pitchers to switch from the American League to the National League, and from the National League to the American League.

I have used Hardball Times' 2005 Win Shares Above Bench to sort the players. I am not trying to use this as a definitive rating of all of these players - that's not the point - I just want to make this objective and a little bit empirical and I think that WSAB does that quite well.

AL to NL - Position Players
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Mueller    Red Sox      Dodgers         8
Rowand     White Sox    Phillies        7
Hudson     Blue Jays    D'Backs         6
Jones      Twins        Cubs            4
Soriano    Rangers      Nationals       4
Castillo   Athletics    Nationals       4
Mirabelli  Red Sox      Padres          2
Renteria   Red Sox      Braves          2
Castro     Orioles      Nationals       1
Alomar     Rangers      Dodgers         0
Total                                  38

Notables with fewer WSAB: H. Ramirez, G. Gross, C. Young, E. Byrnes, S. Finley, A. Gonzalez.

AL to NL - Pitchers
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Young      Rangers      Padres          6      
Howry      Cleveland    Cubs            6
Gordon     Yankees      Phillies        4
Vizcaino   White Sox    D'Backs         3
Bush       Blue Jays    Brewers         2
Bradford   Red Sox      Mets            1
Marte      White Sox    Pirates         1
Hernandez  White Sox    D'Backs         1
Batista    Blue Jays    D'Backs         1
Borowski   Devil Rays   Marlins         1
Total                                  28

Notables with fewer WSAB: Z. Jackson, S. Kline, M. Stanton, S. Ponson, J. Grimsley.

NL to AL - Position Players
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Glaus      D'Backs      Blue Jays      12
Wilkerson  Nationals    Rangers        10
Castillo   Marlins      Twins           7
Grudziel'k Cardinals    Royals          7
Overbay    Brewers      Blue Jays       6
Sanders    Cardinals    Royals          6
Loretta    Padres       Red Sox         6
Perez      Dodgers      Athletics       5
Bradley    Dodgers      Athletics       5
Mackowiak  Pirates      White Sox       3
Total                                  67

Notables with fewer WSAB: R. Hernandez, J. Conine, E. Alfonzo, J. Phillips, J. Thome, M. Lowell, A. Marte, S. Burroughs, D. Mientkiewicz.

NL to AL - Pitchers
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Beckett    Marlins      Red Sox         9
Jones      Marlins      Tigers          9
Vazquez    D'Backs      White Sox       8
Burnett    Marlins      Blue Jays       6
Carrasco   Nationals    Angels          6
Loaiza     Nationals    Athletics       5
Seanez     Padres       Red Sox         5
Farnsworth Braves       Yankees         3
Padilla    Phillies     Rangers         2
Eaton      Padres       Rangers         2
Total                                  55

Notables with fewer WSAB: A. Otsuka, G. Mota, L. Hawkins, R. Villone, M. Redman.

Adding up the total Win Shares Above Bench of the forty players listed above yields a 122-66 advantage for the American League. Also, the notables (who for whatever reason accumulated fewer than two WSAB in 2005) going to the American League, such as Thome, Lowell, Mota, Hernandez, Otsuka and Marte appear to provide more promise for 2006 than their cohorts going to the National League.

Boston, Oakland, Texas, Toronto and Kansas City have led the raid on the National League talent cupboard.

The American League was better in 2005, and it does not appear as though that will change in 2006.

Posted by Leigh on Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 05:13 PM EST.

Talent Shift | 33 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Flex - Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 08:44 PM EST (#138776) #

Nice to see that the result for the Jays is a gain of 24 WSAB and a loss of just 9, for a 15 WSAB difference, and that's not counting BJ Ryan, who comes in at 6 for a total gain of 21.

Lookin' goood.

mathesond - Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 08:50 PM EST (#138777) #

I just about spit when I saw the hitters going to the AL had one fewer WSAB than the entire listed contingent of AL-to-NLers.

The thing I like best about seeing Overbay and Glaus on that list is that they're both still in their 20's. Mind you, seeing Grudzielanek with more WSAB than Overbay gives it some perspective.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 09:10 PM EST (#138784) #

This method probably overstates the AL's advantage in the off-season trades, in that it does not account for the influx of new talent to the various teams. For instance, the Overbay trade shows 6 WSAB going to the AL with 2 going to the NL. However, everyone who commented on the trade here felt that it was a good trade for Milwaukee (many, perhaps most, felt that it was a good trade for Toronto). The key is the presence of Prince Fielder.

Fielder promises to add 4-5 WSAB (at least) to the Milwaukee lineup in place of Overbay. Dave Bush figures to start 30-34 games, instead of spending a half-season in Syracuse. He's a good bet to add 4-5 WSAB to Milwaukee, rather than the 2 he added to Toronto last year. We'll assume that Gross and Jackson contribute nothing to Milwaukee in 2006. Milwaukee has gained 2-4 WSAB. On the other side, Overbay will take time from Hillenbrand (4 WSAB) or Hinske (2 WSAB). Let's say that the total gain for Toronto is Overbay's 6 less Bush's 2 and 1 of H and H's. In other words, Toronto's total gain is 3 WSAB, or an amount similar to Milwaukee's gain.

Jim - Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 10:33 PM EST (#138790) #

Hypothetical.

If the National League truly trails the American League in talent (which I think is true). Then how is a playing time dependant stat like Win Shares any way to measure what was gained or lost.

Players leaving the National League who are lesser players would have more Win Shares then their equal American League equivalent because the total amount of Win Shares between the two leagues is going to be close to equal (of course the NL has 2 more teams and there are interleague games).

So.. in 2005 if the AL was truly a better league (again something I agree with) then Win Shares is no way to measure what was lost or gained because the Win Share baseline in the two leagues isn't equal.

I certainly agree with the conclusion, I just don't think that Win Shares is the way to get there.

In a totally unrelated rant... has anyone read the past two days at Prospectus where the Battle of Champions is taking place? How they could possibly consider printing that given these:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/japantranslate.txt

So.. Matt Franco went to Japan and at the age of 35 he put together a season that translates to 305/373/431? Playing every day? And Toshiaki Imae is a 21 year old every day player who can post a 320/352/435 line in the majors?

Matt Franco's major league career (977 atbats... I don't have his splits, but I think it's safe to say he rarely saw a leftie) 267/349/391. His last year in the majors... 246/299/351, 134 at bats in 112 games.

Somehow we are supposed to believe that Matt Franco is having a career year playing every day at the age of 35 and Toshiaki Imae is the one of the top 5 prospects on the planet.

Jonny German - Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 10:52 PM EST (#138791) #

That's an intersesting point Jim, but:

a) There's no need to be a jerk about it.
b) I don't see Leigh making any claim that this was the definitive in-depth super extra rigorous study.
c) I don't think it's a big deal. Sure, NL WS are worth a little less than AL WS, but how much? 5%? I'd guess less than that, but let's go with it - We'll take the 122 WS coming into the AL and discount them to 115.9. Still looks like a real big number next to the 66 going the other way if you ask me.
d) You say Win Shares aren't a good way to study this because they're a counting stat - how is a rate stat going to be better? It's not like there are more Win Shares per player to go around in the NL.

Glevin - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 01:03 AM EST (#138801) #

This is a strange thing, because the A.L. certainly seems a lot stronger than the N.L. now, but I am not sure why. There have been a lot of big name movement to the AL (Johnson, Schilling, Vlad) but there's been some very good ones to the NL as well (Pedro, Delgado, Beltran). If someone has the team salaries listed, it would be interesting to see the average AL salary compared to NL. it will definitely be a lot higher because of the Yankees and Boston, but the Mets and Dodgers spend a lot too. The N.L. west is about the weakest division I remember, but it can change quickly. Remember how bad the AL Central was for years? Now, it has, IMO, 2 of the best teams in baseball, another contender, and if the Tigers stopped throwing millions on horrible free agent signings, a fourth good team. A little off topic, but usually I find GMs are generally good or bad. The Tigers draft very well -Zumaya, Verlander, Granderson, etc..., they make great moves (Carlos Guillen for nothing, Chris Shelton from rule V, Bonderman and Pena for Weaver, etc...) but they make the dumbest free agent signings. Vina, Percival, Ordonez, and now Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers. Odd.

6-4-3 - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 02:20 AM EST (#138803) #

Taken from USToday's salary database (http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/default.aspx)

Total payroll expense by division:

NL West = $347,013,499
NL Central = $395,899,182
NL East = $392,275,457

Average NL team payroll = $70,949,258.63
Median NL team payroll = $69,564,083

AL East = $481,124,842
AL Central = $278,839,500
AL West = $296,754,418

Average AL team payroll = $75,479,911.43
Median AL team payroll= $62,639,000

The Yankees and Red Sox (who combined almost spent as much as the entire NL West, and easily topped the AL Central and AL West) pull up the average AL payroll, but the median AL team (which was an average of Detroit and Minnesota) was much lower. So basically, the average AL team spends 5 million dollars more than the average NL team, but that's just New York and Boston pulling the average up.

Leigh - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 08:31 AM EST (#138804) #

I had originally thought of posting this with no stats at all. In an attempt to make it a little bit objective, I threw a number on each player which represents - fairly well - how important each player was to his former team in 2005. As I said in the article, I am not trying to use this as a definitive rating of all of these players - that's not the point.

And I do not think that the choice of WSAB is disproportionately unfair to either league. Mike Green makes a good case for why the method treated the Brewers unfairly; however, consider that the chosen method put zero value on NL to ALers J. Thome, M. Lowell, G. Mota, R. Hernandez, A. Otsuka and A. Marte. I would argue that a more accurate study (perhaps using PECOTA WARP/VORP and considering the players who remain in their old leagues but will get increased playing time, i.e. P. Fielder) could certainly be done and would likely yield a larger AL advantage. Perhaps at a time closer to Spring Training I will dedicate a couple of days to this rather than a couple of hours and come up with a more definitive study.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 09:13 AM EST (#138805) #

Fielder promises to add 4-5 WSAB (at least) to the Milwaukee lineup in place of Overbay.

This just isn't true, though. We all know that it is extremely common for rookies, even rookies with a lot of hype, to disappoint. I don't think Fielder is guaranteed to add 4-5 WSAB; it's very possible that he might be 4-5 WS *under* bench. Justin Morneau, for example, was -2 last season, and not only might Fielder quite possibly hit substantially worse than Morneau did, he's not in the same class defensively which will hurt his WS.

Fielder struck out in 28% of his at-bats in his September callup, which is a lot; in fact only one MLB player who struck out in 26% or more of his plate appearances last season managed to be productive enough stay in the lineup for 400 PA. (Trivia question : name the player)

Anyway, to get back to the original point, I do not think it's true that the NL has more non-MLB talent that is coming into the league this season. Last season, for example, the NL rookie class was dreadful. Let's say for the moment that we agree with Dayn Perry that the top 10 rookies are Hermida, Liriano, Fielder, Anthony Reyes, Delmon Young, Zimmerman, Kubel, Carlos Quentin, Huber, and Pedroia... that's five from the AL and five from the NL. The very strongest "rookie" of all is quite likely Kenji Johjima, who is coming to Seattle.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 09:14 AM EST (#138806) #

Also, I didn't think Jim was being a jerk, and it's an interesting point, though the effect isn't likely large enough to cancel out the gap in the talent transfer.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 09:27 AM EST (#138807) #

Somehow we are supposed to believe that Matt Franco is having a career year playing every day at the age of 35 and Toshiaki Imae is the one of the top 5 prospects on the planet.

Let me say first that Toshiaki Imae is a fantastic player, and just because you haven't heard of him is no reason to think otherwise. Imae was a monster in the Japan Series with bat (he hit .667) and glove, and yes he very well could be one of the top 5 prospects on the planet. Let's just say I'd be happy to trade Ryan Zimmerman for him, straight up.

As for Matt Franco, those numbers would *not* be a career year (Franco bested that easily in 2002) and a .373 OBP is entirely in line with what he's done over his career. We also don't know what Franco would have done in the majors if given a full-time job; the guy's been jerked around so many times he tastes like Jamaican barbecue.

The only time Franco ever got anything like regular playing time in the majors was in 2002 and he was terrific. He's spent basically his whole career as a National League pinch-hitter, one of the tougher jobs in baseball and one which has probably killed his offensive totals over his career.

The BP guys know what they're doing with the translations, as they are based on hundreds of comparisons of players who have played both in Japan and in North America. The translations are as legit as you can get.

david wang - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 09:39 AM EST (#138808) #

Well, on the point of Magglio, if he could give us 400-500 AB, he'd look better in RF than Glaus at 3B.

einsof - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 09:56 AM EST (#138812) #

Here's a slightly different breakdown of salaries --
Link http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_05_mlbcontracts_archive.html

Jim - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 09:59 AM EST (#138813) #

'Also, I didn't think Jim was being a jerk, '

Thanks. I certainly wasn't trying to be if I came off that way. Sorry if anyone perceives that.

'though the effect isn't likely large enough to cancel out the gap in the talent transfer.'

I don't think that it is that great of an effect either. I just don't think that this type of analysis is what Win Shares are designed for, and just threw out one of the reasons why.

GreenMonster - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 10:11 AM EST (#138815) #

Fielder struck out in 28% of his at-bats in his September callup, which is a lot; in fact only one MLB player who struck out in 26% or more of his plate appearances last season managed to be productive enough stay in the lineup for 400 PA. (Trivia question : name the player)

I think that the answer is Jonny Gomes, although Preston Wilson (148 K in 576 PA) was closer to 26% than 25%. And both Mark Bellhorn and Wily Mo Pena would certainly qualify under the interpretation of the rules that adds PAs to get them to 400 and compares the actual number of strikeouts: Pena (116 K in 335 PA) would be at 29%, and Bellhorn (112 K in 355 PA) would be at 28%.

HollywoodHartman - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 10:37 AM EST (#138817) #

Craig,

Is it Adam Dunn?

Jim - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 10:51 AM EST (#138818) #

'Let me say first that Toshiaki Imae is a fantastic player, and just because you haven't heard of him is no reason to think otherwise. Imae was a monster in the Japan Series with bat (he hit .667) and glove, and yes he very well could be one of the top 5 prospects on the planet. Let's just say I'd be happy to trade Ryan Zimmerman for him, straight up.'

Well if he's that good it is suprising to me I've never heard of him, because I spend way too much time following these things.

'As for Matt Franco, those numbers would *not* be a career year (Franco bested that easily in 2002) and a .373 OBP is entirely in line with what he's done over his career. We also don't know what Franco would have done in the majors if given a full-time job; the guy's been jerked around so many times he tastes like Jamaican barbecue.'

You could argue a 233 plate appearance sample is a career year. I think 2005 would be based on the fact that he had to play everyday. I didn't notice how out of line 2002 season was with the rest of his major league career - since he never had another season where he reached an OPS+ of even 100. He certainly was in a tough spot as a pinch hitter almost his whole career, but he only ever hit the sample size jackpot once. I suffered through living with a Mets fan from 1998-2002 so I saw plenty of it :). If Matt Franco at the age of 35 is a full time major league player with a .281 EQA then there are 30 MLB GM's who missed out on a very valuable player.

'The BP guys know what they're doing with the translations, as they are based on hundreds of comparisons of players who have played both in Japan and in North America. The translations are as legit as you can get.'

American League 2005 OBP .326 Slug .424

Chiba Lotte Marines 2005 Translated Team Stats OBP .349 Slug .407

So the Chiba Lotte Marines would have an above average offense in the American League? Color me skeptical.

Mike Green - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 10:55 AM EST (#138820) #

OK, Craig, I was being a bit hyperbolic. Let me put it another way, I'd bet you a jelly donut that Fielder is within 2 Win Shares of Lyle Overbay. Let's see: a coffee with Denyszyn about Mike Lowell, a jelly donut with Burley about Fielder/Overbay...I oughta buy a Tim's franchise.

Named For Hank - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:34 AM EST (#138822) #

Sorry if anyone perceives that.

Ah, the joy of the internet and not being able to see anyone's face, right?

I think it's something totally fantastic to think about -- that inequality between the leagues could taint the stat so it's not useful to compare players from one league to the other. Stuff like this is why I love it when ideas start bouncing around in the comments.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:44 AM EST (#138824) #

OK, Mike, you're on! I don't think Fielder and Overbay will be within 2 WSAB of each other.

HollywoodHartman... very close but no cigar. (Mmm... cigar...). Dunn struck out in 25% of his plate appearances (if memory serves me correctly). The guy we're looking for is in the American League.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:48 AM EST (#138825) #

Jim, even though Bobby Valentine is an OBP maniac I agree with you that I'm skeptical of the Marines being good enough to deserve a .349 OBP as a team. In fact, all those Lotte projections look 15 points too high in batting average and 20 points too high in OBP. Which is odd, because the pitching projections don't look too bad to me.

Chiba is traditionally a moderate hitter's park. Perhaps BP are using a park factor that renders it as a pitcher's park. Actually, they must be, because guys have projected BAs as good or better than their actual averages and there's no way that would be true.

So basically, good pickup.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:54 AM EST (#138826) #

GreenMonster is right, it's Gomes. Preston Wilson, for some reason, didn't show up in the list in the THT 2006 book; must be because he switched teams.

Pena and Bellhorn would both have qualified, of course, but that's the second part of the equation; realistically neither guy hit enough to stay in the lineup.

Glevin - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 06:50 PM EST (#138861) #

Well, Pena is a guy I would think would make a great risk. He was horrible in the first half, was sent down and wasn't called up until August where he posted an OPS of, no this is not an error, 1.75. He had a second half OPS of 1.00 and his OPS+ overall was 112. In fact, his career OPS+ is 109. but with Chris Shelton and Dmitri Young, he has nowhere to play. There is simply a glut of 1B/DH out there right now. Really makes you scratch your head when KC goes out to get Mientkewicz.

Jonny German - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 08:01 PM EST (#138864) #

...August where [Pena] posted an OPS of, no this is not an error, 1.75.

It's amazing the rates you can put together in a 9 game sample... How about this one (stepping the sample up to a whopping 27 games): Struck out in 44% of his plate appearances in September.

Glevin - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 10:22 PM EST (#138874) #

"It's amazing the rates you can put together in a 9 game sample... How about this one (stepping the sample up to a whopping 27 games): Struck out in 44% of his plate appearances in September."

It was just 9 games, but he hit seven Hrs in that span. His total second half numbers were good, and his overall numbers were pretty decent as well but he his September was not just good, it was incredible. 7 Hrs in 9 games is pretty rare. Yes, he struck out 95 times in only 260 ABs, (translating into something like 180 Ks) but he also hit the same number of HRs as Hillenbrand 330 fewer ABs. In his career, he averages 28 HRs per 162 games. I have never understood why people care about batter Ks so much. I don't think he's a star, but I think he is the type of player worth taking a risk on.

Adjusted OPS, last 3 years.
Hillenbrand- 108, 106, 95
Pena-112, 112, 107.
Catalanotto-115,87, 111
Hinske-100, 74, 96
Koskie-94, 113, 121
Wells-104, 103, 131
Overbay-113, 127, 92

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:03 PM EST (#138876) #

That's Carlos Pena, not Wily Mo Pena. Carlos also strikes out a lot... he definitely changed his approach when he came back to the Tigers though. Where in his earlier service his K/W ratio was 2:1 (41 K and 21 BB) after his recall in August it was 5:1 (51 K and 10 BB). It was worth it because he rediscovered his lost power stroke, but I have to admit I have serious doubts about his ability to succeed. The book on Pena will have changed and he's not going to get the meatballs he used to get when he took pitches all the time. But he is super strong and anyone who can hit 14 homers in 135 ABs in Comerica Park is worthy of serious respect.

As for Wily Mo Pena, the young Cincinnati outfielder, his numbers are similar but he was probably helped a lot by Great American Bombing Range. He was hurt in May but struggled during the summer and wound up getting benched, then playing part time for a bit before becoming a starter again down the stretch. Wily Mo appears destined to be the Cory Snyder of the Pepsi Generation. He absolutely lacks Snyder's rifle arm but he moves around a little better than Snyder did.

Wily Mo is comparable in some ways to a young Jesse Barfield, though he lacks the defensive value and intensity. He might end up being real good. Other comps for Wily Mo are Pete Incaviglia and Dave Kingman, but he's far better on defense than either of them though he lacks Inky's patience at the plate. He's actually more like an older Dave Kingman than a younger Dave Kingman, except for the better glove.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:05 PM EST (#138877) #

By the Official Player Comparison Rules of the World Association of Baseball Scouts and Broadcasters, I am technically not permitted to compare a dark-skinned player to a white player, so pleae note that the above comparisons are therefore unofficial.

Craig B - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:07 PM EST (#138878) #

Except the Jesse one, of course. The Inky, Kong and Snyder comps are the technically impermissible ones.

HippyGilmore - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:21 PM EST (#138887) #

I just read on the TSN ticker that Koskie has been traded to Milwaukee for a prospect. My eyes may have been playing tricks, because I can't find confirmation on the net, but that's what I saw. No indication of how much of his salary we'd pay.

HippyGilmore - Friday, January 06 2006 @ 11:29 PM EST (#138896) #

Sorry, I should've scrolled down to the active, hijack type thread for this. My bad.

VBF - Saturday, January 07 2006 @ 10:42 AM EST (#138971) #

Sorry Craig, want to run that by me again? Huh?

Mike Green - Saturday, January 07 2006 @ 01:09 PM EST (#138999) #

Don't worry. Craig has never played by the rules of the scouts. I have never once heard him say: "Wily Mo Pena has (or Jesse Barfield had) the good face".

VBF - Saturday, January 07 2006 @ 01:35 PM EST (#139005) #

Oh, humour!

Talent Shift | 33 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.