We have a perfect backup catcher alongside Zaun!
At any rate, Phillips fits the bill quite nicely.
Thumbs up.
(and I just noticed it, but ESPN's 3 year splits have been now changed from 2002-2004, to 2003-2005)
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6721&type=batting3
I have very little faith in GQ so I'm glad Phillips is on board as insurance.
He may not be good defensively (and he may be) but I don't think playing 1B is telling in any way.
"Hitting, Baserunning & Defense
Phillips' aggressive approach at the plate cost him last season, especially when he tried to do too much to get out of his extended slump. When comfortable, Phillips has good power and is capable of hitting righthanders and lefties equally well. He also makes consistent contact and walks nearly as much as he strikes out. His speed was never a factor before, and if anything, Phillips appeared to lose a half-step while catching last year. Defensively, Phillips is a good catch-and-throw receiver who works well with pitchers. He also does a decent job controlling the running game."
Doesn't sound too bad, although this was before the 2005 season. And he's only 29 years old. Reminds me of Todd Greene.
Team R H 2B HR BB SO Toronto 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.22 0.98 1.04 LA (N) 0.90 0.94 0.86 1.12 0.90 1.06Phillips should get a nice artificial boost moving to TO.
Could one of you English majors please let me know if my grammar is correct on the above statement.
Thanks.
I would like to see a better arm at backup catcher, but I'm happy with this signing, especially if Phillips or GQ get the bulk of starts against LHP, so that Zaun can get a bit more rest and maybe hit more like he did in the 1st half last year. Zaun is also an on base monster with decent power against righties. I believe with proper rest he can hit .275-.280, with a .375-.380 OBA and .400+ SLG. I will qualify that by underlining with proper rest. Also, if Phillips is used primarily against LHP then .270/.350/.420 is not out of the question, but please Gibby keep him away from RHP.
Finally, the competition is extremely important to GQ's development. There's nothing like a legitimate threat to your job just a short plane ride away (assuming GQ starts in TO, with Phillips in Syracuse) to bring out your best. I personally would love to see GQ succeed, but I have my doubts, and I like the insurance this move provides.
I can't imagine Phillips was signed to be anything other than a competitor with Quiroz for the backup catcher position. Given Quiroz's recent performance & health (or lack thereof) I suscept Phillips felt that he has a good shot to make it.
Jason Phillips was non-tendered by the Dodgers and might not have been offered a major league contract by any other team. He is at this point a backup catcher and utility man who is slated to play in Syracuse.
Let's not confuse J.P. with any of the other pickups this year. Does anyone remember the inexpcliable appreciation of Spike Lundberg last year?
From everything I remember, including Diamond Mind simulations (take those for what they're worth); Jason Phillips was a good defensive backstop.
I'm finding conflicting information about his defensive abilities online though.
Inside the Dome refers to him historically as an "oustanding defensive catcher".
http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=325&p=8&c=1&nid=2349766&refid=400
FOX claims he is below average....
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerScouting?categoryId=104120
Do we have any statistical analysis that can determine J.P.'s defensive value?
It wasnt inexplicable. It was wholly based on the fact that he's named Spike. I mean. C'mon. Spike!
I guess this covers almost all the insurance positions. Who is the second Syracuse catcher? Apart from that, we have:
The horrors of Dave Berg, outfielder, should never happen again.
I assumed that Koskie or Hinske would be traded for catching insurance, but now I wonder what JP will be looking for in return.
Incidentally, Bob Elliot wrote in the Toronto Star today that the Indians had asked for Hillenbrand, but they were told that he was not available. Therefore, it looks like it will be one of Koskie or Hinske getting traded.
"Phillips is a good catch-and-throw receiver who works well with pitchers. He also does a decent job controlling the running game."
Is it possible for JP and GQ to both be on the roster at the same time with both Hillenbrand and one of Koskie and Hinkse?
Does a move like this make possible the outright cutting of Hinkse?
The link should have been to this site. His defensive worth is referenced under Fantasy News.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player?categoryId=104120
I doubt it's talking about his 1B defence, where he only appeared in 21 out of 121 games last year.
However, I think some Bauxites are undervaluing Quiroz. I thought Q really hit the ball hard last season in August and September, and should be given a shot. His defense is sketchy, but he's a big strong kid capable of improvement. I was impressed with his strength to both fields in the two games I witnessed at RC where he was the starter. Not saying he should be handed the starter's role, but he should be given a shot now to prove himself at the major league level.
I wouldn't bail out just yet on Hinske.... monetary reasons aside.
You might be able to do something with players nnamed or nicknamed after uniform parts -- Cap Anson, Gary Glover, Matt Batts all come to mind.
Checking his minor league stats to see if 2003 was a complete 100% fluke...
AAA - 296/351/484 - all at Norfolk 129 games, final 22 in 2003
AA - 293/360/444 - all at Binghamton, 159 games 2001 and earlier
A - 264/334/392 - 1997-2000 - sucked in '97, solid after that
Hrm. Makes one wonder about the last two years (218/298/326 and 238/287/363 after a 298/373/442 '03 season) and if there is something behind the scenes that killed him.
Did bad hitting coaches in NY and LA trying to change his method? His GB/FB ratio shifted to more GB each season, but not by much (1.15 to 1.33). His P/PA decreased as well each year, again not by much (3.66 to 3.54). Only 4 sac bunts despite very poor hitting those last two years, so I don't think he was asked to 'give himself up' a whole lot. His batting average for balls in play went from 340 to 247 to 272...hmmm...magic bullet here maybe?
Injuries maybe, since he missed 5 games due to a hand injury in August, was listed as day-to-day...did he play through stuff he shouldn't have?
The scouting report at TSN.ca said ...
"Has the receiving skills to be a No. 1 catcher in the majors. He's disciplined at the plate with a little power and hits righties and lefties equally well." - not quite since he hit lefties 271/352/423 and righties 246/309/364 over the past 3 years. Last year he hit lefties to the tune of 270/353/472 (in '04 he just sucked in every direction)
Hopefully the Jays think they know what hurt him the last two years and figure they can correct it. If so we have a heck of a catcher, if not he should be a decent 3rd catcher and backup at 1B (assuming 2 of Koskie and/or Hinske and/or Hillenbrand are traded thus creating the need for a 1B backup). Wonder if he can play third (just joking).
Btw, whatever happened to the nice stats the Star used to have? Went there looking for Phillips minor league numbers and got a lousy looking page with just the most recent stats. At least TSN still has the good stats - http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/teams/players/bio/?id=2705&hubname=mlb
I wish I had the time to do it, but alas; I'm in the middle of marking Grade 7 History assignments before my vacation ends.
If someone else has the time or inclination; I say go for it!
Can Ty Cobb or Pete Rose be used though? They sure knew how to use their spikes after all.....
Can his subpar performances over the past two seasons be due to the inept New York management or is it an issue of a catcher who simply doesn't have the abilities to maintain a full time position over a full season?
That is the defensive scouting report on him
CA: Zaun/Quiroz/Phillips
1B: Overbay
2B: Hill
3B: Glaus
SS: Adams
IF: McDonald
LF: Cat/Johnson
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: Hillenbrand
Bench: Koskie/Hinske
That is a total of 15 guys who I'd see as likely to be on the roster if the season started today. Does Rios still have options? If so then Rios and Phillips could be at AAA waiting for a shot while Hinske or Koskie are tossed into the outfield mix or Johnson becomes the everyday RF and Cat plays everyday in LF and Hinske/Koskie are pure bench players. This is assuming the Jays still go with a 12 man pitching staff as is likely (Ryan/Frasor/Chulk/SS/Speier/Downs/Walker in the pen Halladay/AJ/Lilly/Chacin/Towers starting).
Surely Phillips could catch on with another big league team rather than go to AAA, given his status as "established major league veteran".
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4027&context=fielding
If Quiroz cannot fill the role of right-handed half of a catching platoon, Phillips will do so capably. I have been impressed with the Red Sox' moves during the off-season, but their choice of Huckaby and Flaherty as backup catchers is mystifying, and the Jays' signing of Phillips makes these decisions stand out in bold relief.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3562368.html
Ack! With all due respect John, if he sees any time at 1B or DH on a team with so many 1B/3B/DH types, then something has gone terribly, terribly wrong.
Like others, I can't see the team carrying 3 catchers. The calculus becomes problematic when you have 4 third basemen and want to also carry 7 relievers. Perhaps JP's next move should be to petition Selig to allow a 28-man roster. Or 29, just in case the team wants to make room for Roy Howell or Danny Ainge.
Phillips hit well as an old (26) rookie, but the league appears to have figured him out. Still, the Jays needed a catcher, preferably a RH one, so Phillips helps. In agreeing to the minor league deal, his agent must have impressed upon him the potential that exists when a team's starting catcher is 35 and when the team's back-up has suffered two collapsed lungs.
I can't comment on Phillips' defensive ability, but its axiomatic that the less you hit, the better you field. I'm sure his defensive rep has improved greatly as his OPS has tumbled from the 800's to 600's.
I have been impressed with the Red Sox' moves during the off-season, but their choice of Huckaby and Flaherty as backup catchers is mystifying, and the Jays' signing of Phillips makes these decisions stand out in bold relief.
I agree, Mike, that the Red Sox are going out of their way to sign crappy catchers with knuckleball experience, but isn't Kelly Shoppach still around? Doesn't he figure to be the front runner for Mirabelli's old job? At which point Huckaby and Flaherty reboard the crappy backup-catcher carrousel (not to be confused with the crappy situational lefty reliever carrousel).
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06003/631666.stm
If this happens, Craig Wilson should become even more available.
Cool.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://aguilas.terra.com.ve/&prev=/search%3Fq%3DZulia%2BAguilas%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26rls%3DHPIB,HPIB:2005-21,HPIB:en
Do you think maybe the Red Sox just signed Huckaby to take out Jeter again?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/
Couple interesting items, though nothing shocking:
- Jays maintain interest in Molina - although it's on the back of the backburner. I think JP is just keeping the door open on the off chance that the market for Benji completely collapses and maybe he can can sign him to a cheap 1-year deal while Molina hopes things get better the following winter.
- Blair refers to Phillips' defense last year as terrible and the primary reason he lost his job. (What about his sub .300 OBP?)
- JP says that there will be an open competition between Phillips and GQ in Spring Training.
- Blair contends that Koskie is the obvious odd man out and that the Jays will take prospects in return.
And perhaps they signed Flaherty to tell Huckaby where he can find Jeter away from the field should Huck not be able to accomplish the nasty deed on the field.
And suddenly, the big picture emerges.
Hinske (L) and Johnson (R) split LF.
Wells (R) CF
Cat (L) and Rios (R) split RF
Glaus (R) 3rd
Adams (R) or Hill (R) SS
Hill or Adams 2nd
Overbay (L) 1st
Hilly (L) and Koskie (R) split DH
Zaun (switch hits)
That way we make the MOST of our modest offense against righties and lefties. It also means that later in the game if the other team switches pitchers we'll have some pop off the bench. Also, it keeps everyone in the game and fresh.
Last year's gold is this year's coal, eh?
I think getting rid of Koskie and letting Glaus play third is a mistake, but what else is new.
BUT, if the suits at MLB won't let us then Walker draws the short straw.
King Ryan, respectfully, there were a ton of posters questioning the Koskie signing. For the very reasons that proved to be true and will likely be the case again this year.
I certainly do not recall anyone determing his value as either gold or coal, but maybe glass.
Clearly the organization made a mistake signing him to that deal and this is reflected by the lack of market for him now.
None of this is to disparage Cory Koskie, he's a fine journeyman ball player. Its not his fault he was so highly overvalued.
Why not pick the brains of the backup catcher who knows the competition's pitching staff as well as anyone? (With the exceptions of the new pitchers, of course.)
Of course I could be wrong, but he was certainly the Jays' "big free agent signing" last season, and now the Jays are looking to dump him for prospects.
I think "journeyman ball player" is far too harsh. He's a fine defender (much better than Glaus,) and his career OPS+ is 113, not bad at all for a good-fielding 3B. I don't think the Jays' mistake was signing him. The mistake was trading O-Dawg for Glaus. But I won't get into that here...
I believe the Jays are seeking an options exemption on Rosario not Quiroz.
Injuries to both Koskie and Halladay this past season are best described as being fluke occurrences, unlikely to happen again.
Anyway, in this state of perpetual despair, I normally refrain from commenting on the subject. Experience has taught me what usually results from collisions between my head and the brick wall. But if you insist, I'll make an exception.
Hmmm...hmmmm..... well, you might have been better off using "had" instead of "have," if you're looking for some big-time nitpicking. It's close enough for government work.
There. You're welcome. We done?
Koskie said he turned down more money from the Dodgers to sign with the Jays because it was the team he dreamed about playing for while growing up.
But if somehow Koskie remains with the Jays this season, it would be foolish to have Glaus start over him at 3B.
The reason I mentioned it was an organizational mistake rather than a Ricciardi one is that the new budget came after free agent season. Maybe Ricciardi would have tried to land Glaus for money and not talent last winter. Obviously that would have been far far better than giving up Hudson.
As was noted in a previous thread, from information from the Jeff Blair blog, Orlando Hudson and Larry Walker are scheduled to be at a fundraiser at the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in St. Marys on Sunday January 15, 2006 from 6:00 to 7:30 pm.
Scott of the Hall of Fame sent me an email this evening indicating that, despite the trade, O-Dog has confirmed his attendance.
I think this is a golden opportunity for Bauxites to thank Hudson for all the memories.
Magpie, it's the best money you ever spent! And it shows, too. [Have to say, though, I don't know what post you're referring to with this "have"/"had" pair.] How do you cope around all those lawyers?
(MLB.com)
RF-the Jays have two options.
1-The most likely. Keep Rios and hope he starts hitting. I think the best option.
2- Try an IFer out there. I don't like this because the Jays defense is questionable enough. Besides, none of those guys has more than a decent bat anyway.
3-Move Reed Johnson to RF full time. Johnson is one of those guys whose numbers would look worse with more time. Over the last 3 years, his OPS vs. righties is .702 which is hideous for a corner OFer. He's a good righty platoon guy.
MI-Again a few options.
1-Stay with John Macdonald. Bad idea IMO. His careers OPS is .593 and his career OPS+ is 58. As the primary backup to two young guys, you simply need to do better.
2-Go out and sign someone. Rich Aurillia would seem like a perfect fit as he can play second and short, can hit some, and made only 600, 000 last year.
As for trading, Hillenbrand would be the best guy to trade. He's really not a whole lot better than Hinske (I wanted a Hinske/Lecroy combo at DH) and would help the Jays obtain a better calibre of prospect. The problem is this. Whomever needs a DH (which Hillenbrand basically is) can go out and sign Piazza, Durazo, Thomas, or even Lecroy and not give up anything. some team might be willing to take a shot at Hinske at 3B.
(Yet another reason I find J.P.'s plan so frustrating. the Jays could have accomplished a massive upgrade at offense signing guys like Reggie Sanders, and two of the aformentioned DHs which would cost the Jays lest than ten million a year in total and mean they would not give up Bush, Batista, or Hudson and they would not have to take a big 4-year risk in Glaus.)
I think the post submission form should have "preview", "submit", and "send post to Magpie for proof-reading and editing".
commenting on peoples grammer on a list like (even if requested) this reeks a bit too much of Ignatius J. Reilly to me.
I think we are also analyzing the phillips signing a bit too much. After all he is signed to a minor league contract at a few hundred grand which can amout to nothing. This is what spring training is for. Seeing who is healthy and who can help right away.
That is why I would wait for mid-spring traing before trading Hinske/Hillenbrand/Koskie/Whomever just because we never know who will Lilly on us and start the year on the DL.
After all...let's say that they trade Koskie and then Hillenbrand goes down. Then who do they bring up to replace in the roster spot?
A lack of an antecedent for the pronoun "which"!
".....Ricciardi going so far yesterday as saying he visualized an outfield of Hinske in left, Vernon Wells in centre and Frank Catalanotto in right against right-handed pitching, with Reed Johnson and Alex Rios available for late-inning defence."
Hinkse vs RHP - 2005 (389 ABs):
.283/.358/.452
Hinske vs RHP - 2003-2005 (1107 ABs):
.253/.334/.416
Rios vs RHP (career - 629 ABs):
.278/.320/.394
If the option is '2005 Hinske' and '2005 Rios' perhaps its a good idea to have Hinske in the OF.
The key is what you think Hinske and Rios will do this year. I'm not certain Hinske is as good against RHPs as he was in 2005 (based on the past three years) and Rios certainly has room for improvement over what he did in 2005.
The OF defense would certainly be considerably worse as Hinske would be a downgrade in LF and Cat would be a big downgrade in RF from Rios.
Is there any valid reason to expect Phillips to have a lower BABIP than most other players or shouldn't this always revert back to the mean at some point in time? For example, could he be hitting more weak popups and less line drives than others in the game? If so, any reason for this or expectations of a cure?
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2006/01/04/1378477-sun.html
Here is a link to the Star article by Geoff Baker that says Phillips will earn $550K if he makes the Jays. This would be over a $200K raise from last season.
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1136328631491&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064
Cat converting from infield to outfield was hard enough and he is much more of an athletic build then Hinske.
Seeing Hinske lumbering around out there will not be fun.
Everyone that access! Go to www.HardballTimes.com and look in the stats section. You can also calculate it fairly quickly with a spreadsheet (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR).
SEASON - BABIP
2003 - 0.319
2004 - 0.230
2005 - 0.251
Craig Wilson is up for grabs, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
The article says the Pirates don't want to pay a bench player $4 million per year -- so it looks like Hinske wouldn't ever be headed to Pittsburgh in any trade.
(You owe it to yourself to check out JC's article on PrOPS, which is in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006). Apparently, players who underperform their PrOPS tend to gain 80% of that underperformance back the following year.
Jason Phillips was the unluckiest hitter in baseball according to PrOPS for 2004. His PrOPS of .732 was 110 points better than his OPS of .622. Then in 2005, Phillips was the 12th-unluckiest hitter... underperforming his PrOPS of .716 by 69 points.
Phillips should be having more success than he has had the last two seasons, and I suspect that the Jays may have taken this sort of thing into account in going after him. If he can replicate his 2004/05 PrOPS in real terms, a .725 OPS from your backup catcher is really very good.
Phillips (2005 data) is above-average in groundballs and line drives, hits a few more popups than average, is just about dead average in flyballs, and strikes out, walks, and bunts less than average.
And one more PrOPS comment... players (like Phillips in 2005) who substantially underperform their PrOPS in a season have a very strong tendency to improve the following year.
My greater concern is the possibility of Catalanotto in RF. Cat's a decent enough fielder, but you can hide him in left and no damage is done. In right field, your range is tested and your arm, especially, is constantly under pressure. I don't much like the idea of opposing runners on first routinely taking third on a single to right. Cat had exactly 4 assists in 111 games in the outfield last year. Not that Craig Wilson would be much better, mind you (6 assists in 167 outfield appearances the last two years).
If this really is going to be the normal outfield alignment in 2006, then Vernon Wells is going to have to really work to earn a third Gold Glove this season. And I wouldn't invest too heavily in any flyball pitchers on the Jays' staff. But nothing is written in stone until the Koskie situation sorts itself out.
For those that think that Craig might be biased given his affiliation with HT, I bought the Hardball Times book last week and I'm especially impressed with the analysis section in the book. There's a lot of good stuff being generated from the batted ball data.
Re: Wilson
Considering the desire for hitting - demonstrated by the package sent to Arizona - surely there is something that the Jays can do to land Craig Wilson, who is approximately as good a hitter as Troy Glaus. I hope that this has at least been considered, as it appears that Wilson could be had for little(field).
Sir, I resemble that remark! I even minored in Philosophy mostly to learn how to cope with the fact that there were no jobs for English majors.
(Man, what's with that crappy 2003?)
Decent OPS overall, I'd like to see Ricciardi take a chance on him, even with the injuries to his hand.
Maybe Cat plus a pitching prospect might due the trick. Jays take on $2M and Wilson takes over in LF leaving Rios in RF.
Ain't that the truth; I have an English degree and work at an electronic store. Didn't see that one coming.
commenting on peoples grammer on a list like (even if requested) this reeks a bit too much of Ignatius J. Reilly to me."
Ummmm the original poster said, "Could one of you English majors please let me know if my grammar is correct on the above statement."
If J.P. is going to focus on anyone for the OF, I would prefer he target somebody like Jason Kubel. Returning Koskie to the Twins seems like the most viable course of action, and should the Jays pick up a portion of the contract they would hopefully have the leverage to ask for Kubel in return.
It does, however, provide me with a good excuse when one of my ideas flops. "What do I know, I'm just an English major."
Either way, it appears Phillips is due for a good shake. Mind you there always seems to be exceptions to the rule. For example, I seem to recall Kirk Rueter always having terrible peripherals but performing strong on counting stats. Hopefully Phillips truly has been unlucky and get find the pot of gold in the RC.
I thought Cat was a weakness last year, but it turns out that as of Sept., he had just about the league average raw OPS for AL LFers. Is Wilson really a better hitter, or so much better a hitter, that this makes sense? Isn't removing Rios from the starting outfield apparently J.P.'s goal?
Koskie to the Twins I love. I wouldn't mind kicking in $ and a pitching prospect to get a youngish RF-type to platoon with or to spell Rios. Time was, the Twins were swimming in those, but in recent years, they've bled many away. Does anyone fit the bill? Did someone mention Kubel?
Secondly, the general level of English usage here is better than that of BaseballPrimer posters which I have been reading for a few years. I generally refrain from commenting on even the most egregious errors because I recognize that some posters have English as a second language and I feel we should welcome any attempt at contributing to DaBox. However, some of you are pretty sad. Can we at least spell "definitely" correctly?
I am done. Thank you.
Would some of you be recognizable Primates?
Ha ha, my post secondary education involved two written exams in total, one of them in the class that was supposed to make sure we could speak English.
But at the same time, I was doing six studio setups a week and we had frequent "put everything you've shot so far this term up on the wall so we can all cut you to pieces" sessions.
Thank god that the Jays players don't have to be marked on their spelling, grammar & punctuation if they want to make the team. I would assume that many ballplayers like S.Sosa, Canseco & Delgado would never have reached the Majors. I keep expecting my posts to be sent back to me with a big red "D-" at the bottom. Am I being alittle paranoid?
D-
No, not paranoid at all...
Yep. If you actually worry about it, you're not one of the problem posters. The problem posters are the ones who just don't care.
But really, we like to handle this by e-mail. What has brought this all to the fore is posters criticizing each other. If you see a post that you think is a total train-wreck, just hit "report abuse" in case we haven't seen it. Then we can send a quiet, private, friendly request to the poster to clean it up and re-post it, and no one has to feel "called out".
Sorry if this has already been posted.
Lets put all this speculation aside. For those of you who want to hear what the ACTUAL Blue Jay plans are then you will have a great opportunity today at 2pm.
JP Ricciardi will be on MLB LIVE radio in one hour. I am really looking forward to hear what he has to say about the possibility of a deal with Minnesota. I bet his tone will tell us more than his words though.
To hear it, go to:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp
While it might be interesting to listen to Mr. Ricciardi, what makes you think he'll divulge the ACTUAL plans? If he's in trade talks with anyone, or shopping this guy or that, or targeting this guy or that, he's not going to go public with that. It's one thing to formally announce that offers have been made to FA's (as he did with Burnett and Ryan), but quite another to discuss trade talks.
Perhaps he'll shed some light on the Hinske-to-the-outfield rumours, but even those might be nothing more than a way to make Hinske seem versatile for the purposes of moving him.
I think the best way to find out what's really going on is to have Magpie chase down the assistant GM's with vermouth or peach schnapps or whatever it is that might get them to spill.
It may be that JP mentions that they have no interest in trading for an OF. It may be that he says they would have to be bowled over to trade Cat. It may be that he mentions he has a few offers that he is mulling over.
True, none of it will give us definate answers but I will be surprised if it does not at least eliminate one of the many issues that have been speculated on here.
I'm getting ready to listen to JP on MLB radio & maybe if I listen hard enough to the tone of JP's voice, I can gain some insight into the Jays OF situation. Personally, I'd love to see C.Wilson in our OF & his power bat would add that extra umph to our offense.
If only Fred Claire had the voice of Abe Simpson . . .
Hey, JP's in.
Based on his history, I guess this means something is up.
The most interesting tidbit from the interview was that the Jays had had Santos on their radar for a long time, and had some interest in him when they drafted Adams (who they preferred as an older, college player who would make the majors sooner). He's more than a throw-in... this is someone that the braintrust have had their eyes on for a while.
I'm still waiting for Claire to announce his predictions for the 2006 all-star team, which would probably feature Honus Wagner, Mordacai "Three Finger" Brown, Cap Anson and at catcher, Rick Dempsey.
JP repeated his claim that the payroll's at 72 million, can go to 75.
Thinks there's a buzz in Toronto about the Jays, sales already up 25%, should go higher in spring.
Thinks Toronto is a great city, plays down notion that players don't want to play here, thinks that players are rediscovering Toronto now.
Likes Sergio Santos, scouts liked him, they've been tracking him since they almost drafted him (chose Adams instead)
Doesn't see Jays doing much more than some minor deals, because he’s happy with the team right now.
Glaus is a big baseball fan, was aware of what Toronto had done / was doing.
So, basically he didn't really say anything interesting other than the Santos bit.
I'd forgotten that all of the bullpen are out of options. Walker is a good enough pitcher that I would hate to lose him to waivers.
Assuming that there's no injuries between now and opening day.
Of course it's more likely that a pitcher is the one that will get hurt so unless the Jays change course and only carry 11 pitchers a move would still need to be made.
I would expect something to happen with the CI excess prior to ST - it's just not in JP's interest to appear to have to make a move which is why I think he's saying that they'll stay as is.
Things tend to happen before the season starts.
Also thinking Hinske can hit 40 homers is nothing but a wish. He has a line-drive swing that translates into no more then 30 at a career zenith.
I hope he can play the outfield but I prefer Rios in Right (due to his arm...and hopefully his awakened bat...keep in mind how young he is and how this year should have been his rookie year) and Cat/Reed in LF then forcing Hinske to learn a new position again.
Hinkse in my eyes (unless he pulls a Big Papi evolution by miracle) is a very good bench player this year for the Jays. He will sub in well for the coming DL trips Glaus, Hillenbrand and Overbay may have.
I think
I think our friend was referring to Harmon Killebrew. No one is expecting Hinske to hit 40 HR.
In my view neither Rios nor Hinske have any business in the OF of a club wishing to contend.
The Corner OF slots and 1b were the key weaknesses heading into the offseason and we've addressed only one of these needs adequately.
I will be very dissapointed if the Jays start the season with Rios or Hinske in the outfield on a regular basis.
Personally, I would like to see the Jays hang on to Rios. He's a good defensive player and he has potential offensively. Also, I worry that Wells won't be a Jay after 2007, and Rios could be a legitimate CF replacement.
I wouldn't consider left field to be a weakness - at worst, the Sparky/Cat platoon figures to be about average. Sure, you could improve on it, but it wasn't a dire need. Rios, maybe, but that has less to do with last year than it does to do with what you, or the Jays, think he can do this year.
Consider, too, that the Jays will be getting more power from centre field than probably anyone in the league. They also figure to have probably the 2nd-best hitting third baseman in the league.
That said, though, I'm not crazy about having Hinske and Catalanotto in the outfield at the same time. Vernon's good, but he's not that good.
Catalanatto is a solid hitter if a little light powerwise for a traditional LF'er. I have no problem with him being in the lineup on an everyday basis (platooning with Reed). Not that they can't improve there, but I certainly wouldnt call it a weakness. Rios needs to make some strides offensively, but with Wells, Glaus, and Overbay on the team I think they can afford to be patient with him. His defense is obviously excellent so he's not hurting them in the field. Id hate to see him gone only to blossom somewhere else.
You're not the only one. I think that Griffin would hit at least as well as Hinske, and he's played in the outfield in the minors. Furthermore, he will cost the Jays about $10 million less than Hinske over the next two years. If the Jays could trade Hinske AND Koskie, they would have some salary room at the trade deadline.
I would like to see Rios stick around, but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Catalanotto and a RP or prospect for Wilson. Wilson in LF would be quite nice.
I think an OF of Hinske/Wells/Cat is just asking for trouble.
Although if ManRam can play LF, I think I might be able to play it. I still crack up at the play he made 2 seasons ago when he cut off a throw from Damon while he was still in the OF.
Trading Koskie seems foolish unless there is absolutely no market for the other two. Glaus has apparently been promised 3rd base, but Koskie would make a much better DH and corner infield backup than either of Hilly or Hinske.
Unfortunately I have a feeling trading Koskie is being pursued to put Glaus' mind at ease with respect to his playing time at 3rd.
Year GP AB 2005 130 419 2004 75 249 2003 133 489 2002 68 212You're doing well to get 400 AB a season out of Cat, and with a tougher gig in right field slated for 2006, I might take the under on 400. The Jays will need a lot of corner outfield options this season, because they have a lot of uncertainty.
That said, the Braves went into last season with Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan in the corners, and they did all right. Not that the Jays have a Jeff Francouer waiting in the wings (though Adam Lind may be ready to play that part in 2007), but the point is that the team you start the year with is rarely the team you finish with. The Jays will probably have the resources, in terms of both payroll and prospects, to swing a deal mid-season for a corner bat if they really need one. So a Hinske-Catalanotto combo in the corners on Opening Day should not be considered a fatal flaw.
In all likelihood, this response to Newton demonstrates precisely the complacency that he is talking about. While I would agree that Wells and Glaus represent positive expectations relative to their respective positions, this fact has nothing whatsoever to do with the outfield corners. If having a positive at one position causes you to accept a negative at another, then it seems as though the goal is to be average. Now that is complacency.
Rios v2005 playing rightfield is a problem, irrespective of whether the centrefielder is Jim Edmonds or Tony Womack.
I should note, however, that I do not believe that a Catalanotto/Johnson platoon is really that much of a problem. Johnson has the grit, determination, etc.; Catalanotto is our classic underrated Bill Mueller/Matt Stairs underrated type - all Championship teams have at least one of each.
If Hinske can add another glove to his arsenal I think this is a good thing. I hope he's shagging flies all winter.
At any rate he doesn't need a plus arm to be ready to sub for Rios, Cat or Reed, it needs to be adequate.
He will earn more in arbitration then he would have under the original contract.
It's not complacency exactly. It's that I happen to like the corner OFs we have at the moment. Obviously if you have the opportunity to upgrade without hurting yourself too much in other areas (ie dollars, future, roster size, etc) you do it. But I dont consider Rios or Catalanatto or Johnson to be a negative.
If a deal came along that allowed the Jays to make room for another OF on the roster and push Rios to 4th OF I would certainly welcome that. I just dont want to see him tossed out with the trash because he hasnt produced yet and dagnabit we're trying to win this year. He was rushed to the majors before he was ready because of injuries and now we're stuck with him. I dont know how much better he can be, maybe he wont ever get any better, but I would rather take that risk than see him thrown away.
Wasting 500 MLB at bats on an unproductive Rios during a year when we'll be contenders is arguably a greater risk than dumping him and seeing him produce for another club. That is precisely why we're hearing these ridiculous Hinske as an OF rumours.
We're on the threshold of real success and RF is an obvious weakness.
Something needs to be done.
BTW, does anyone understand Texas' logic when they make trades and sign players. The last three (?) GMs there I can't figure out. Go look at all the players sent in the completed Adam Eaton trade (at the baseball weekly website). Can someone explain it to me?
I listened to the Blair tape at MLB Radio. Blair sees the Bluejays greatest deficiency at catcher. So I'm wondering that if Riciardi says the Molina notion is away on the backburner does this really mean he is close to a deal with him. I mean in JP speak.
These posts touting John Ford Griffin as an option to Rios? To me this is a guy that will struggle to hit .230 in the big leagues. As well he is a liability in the field as I recall.
Though I am not touting Rios big time. I think last season might turn out to be the proverbial sophomore slump. His skills sets are better than he showed in 2004. So I'm not a proponent of the get this guy outta here at any cost kind of guy. He's young cheap and plays great defense. He should still develop some.
In my opinion, Rios should stay. Somebody has to play CF in 2008. If the Jays sign Halladay they might not be able to afford to keep Wells. Rios is already an excellent defender and has offensive potential. Anyone who's watched BP has seen what he's capable of. I think that he'll come around, and I hope he's in a Jays uniform when he does.
When Wells leaves after 07, if we can't resign him, Rios is our center fielder. Unless Negron turns into Willy Mays this year that is...
Remember, Bobby Cox has always had success with platoon situations at week positions going back to the old Garth Iorg/Rance days.
Reed is still "young" and can improve a bit and Cat is always around .300. so put their numbers together and you have a more then efficient LF.
I dont understand the hate on Rios.
He is only 23.
Vernon didn't blossom until 24.
two years ago JP was going to trade Rios because he was afraid he was going to end up like Vernon (high k's low BB's and not enough power) and didn't want a Vernon clone on his moneyball scheme.
Now he changed positions and is playing a wait a see game as Rios has shown a different style in the majors.
Why don't we wait and see?
Actually, he'll be 25 in February.
I dont understand the hate on Rios.
I don't think it's a hate, just frustration. The Jays are going to need a lot of things to break their way to challenge for a playoff spot. Having a corner outfielder with a 700 OPS, should Rios not improve, will severely curtail those aspirations.
Rios will likely improve, the question is how much? A 750 OPS? an 800 OPS? Of course, there's the chance that he'll do an Alex Gonzalez and never improve at all.
I meant 25
I dont think that Rios will be that much of a bad link for a championship team.
We can't have an allstar at all positions like the Yankees.
The last 4 champs had more holes then the jays do now.
We can't expect Rios to have the start to his career that Pujols has had.
If he hits .280 and has 15 jacks then he is worthwhile in this lineup as long as everyone else performs as expected.
I am more concerned about the catcher position.
Zaun has been above and beyond for the jays (seeing as he was added just like Phillips is now...as an afterthought who had minor is any success beforehand...case in point) but at what 35 years old? how many catchers have continued success at that age and beyond (besides Myers fluke season)
We all assume he will hit around .275-.280 but what if he turns Benito Santiago - circa Jays - on us? considering that Molina talks are dead almost and anyhow Molina is no Pudge we may have a bigger hole there then worrying about two outfield positions that have viable options
Yes, but they also had more elite players. The Jays don't have a huge collection of top shelf players, so they are in less of a position to carry weak performers.
If he hits .280 and has 15 jacks then he is worthwhile in this lineup as long as everyone else performs as expected.
What does that mean? He almost put up those numbers last year but barely cleared a 700 OPS. It's not everyone else's job to carry Rios.
We all assume he will hit around .275-.280 but what if he turns Benito Santiago - circa Jays - on us?
Your concerns about a 35-year old catcher are well founded, but I disagree with your claims. Zaun is a career .250 hitter. I can't imagine that anyone is expecting him to hit between .275 and .280. But he has a terrific batting eye and can draw enough walks so that his OBP is 100 points higher than his AVG.
His profile as a hitter is totally different from Santiago's, who was a wild swinger with some power.
As for aging, Zaun's advantage over Santiago is simple: he doesn't have as long a history of catching. He has been a catcher his whole career, but has been a backup and has not seen his body wear down from first-string use.
I think he's got until June, maybe May, to show he can be a productive outfielder.
Older Catchers regardless of how much they play early on in their careers tend to wind down fast.
The 35 year old body can't take 130 games of catch and throw.
As for whether the last 4 champ teams line up with the JAYS :
I think we should have a forum and compare them.
I am looking up the stats now.