Santos is equivalent to Guillermo Quiroz, great through AA then struggled at AAA. Quiroz was the Jays #3 prospect in 2004 at age 22 after his big year in AA. Santos was the D'Backs #3 in 2005 at age 21 and a half after his big year in AA.

BA appear to give Santos a bit of a mulligan for 2005, they say he struggled early and never could quite get back on track. That often happens to younger guys. Although he struggled at the plate he improved his fielding which is another good sign, that he did not get too down on himself.

Santos is eighteen months younger than Quiroz and at a similar spot in the organization. I would put Santos in Quiroz's spot in the rankings.

Happy New Years to All.

I would rank Mr. Santos # 14, just ahead of Ryan Roberts

Peter

Finally...it's nice to have a toolsy, high-ceiling hitting prospect in the system, as opposed to all of the low-ceiling college-age yahoos that we've been drafting the last few years. I'm rather surprised that the organization (apparently) asked that this guy be included in the trade.

Garvin, without wanting to get into yet another debate about "ceiling", I would like to know if you'd rank Santos ahead of Adam Lind. And if so, would that ranking be based on his potential defensive value in addition to his bat, or do you feel he's a better prospect than Lind when looking at them strictly as hitters?

For what it's worth Lind and Santos are only 14 days apart in age.

I think Lind and Quiroz are WAY over ranked and Zack is gonners...so I put Sergio 4th.

HOWEVER, I'M POSITIVE I read that he had a "loose shoulder" and that either a) affected him last year or b) he was recovering from it last year. HOWEVER, I've looked everywhere and can't find the reference. SORRY!

If he did then that would explain the off year.

BA say his fielding improved a lot last year, so no mention of a loose shoulder. Maybe that was 2004?

It was his hitting that pulled his ranking down in 2005, he started slowly, began pressing and never recovered.

Why do you say Lind is over rated? GQ I can understand where your coming from.

I would definitely put Santos in the mold of a GQ Rios type prospect that toolsy guys go ga ga for, and stat heads are skeptical of.

I'm not sure where Santos would slot in. I'm a big fan of age relative to league, but that's pretty much the biggest thing he has going for him. Looking at his stats, he doesnt look like a better prospect than Aaron Hill was, and Russ Adams, while being slightly older, was a better hitter in the minors. I think he's definetly a GQ type, so anywhere from 6-10 I would think would be appropriate.

I found the Santos shoulder reference:

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/sidewinders/71598

"Notable: Santos missed the final seven weeks of the 2004 season after undergoing surgery on his left (nonthrowing) shoulder. …"

He could have been recovering his strength in 05. THAT is REAL good news. Only 22 at AAA + recovering from off-season surgery.

The KID is a KEEPER!

Its hard to know but I think Santos is a better prospect for the Jays than Jackson. By this I mean the Jays had few positional prospects and ever fewer at key defensive postions. They have a lot of pitching including 2 #1 LH picks that project as well if not better than Jackson.

Last year Jackson (age 23) did well at A ball, okay at AA, and stunk at AAA. Santos had a good year at A ball at age 20. He seems to struggle at each promotion and then improve the next year. He should improve at AAA next year and has another year or two to improve further. He has power (more than Hill or Adams showed in the minors) and good hands and arm. The big questions seems to be with range and OBP. Hopefully he can learn to take a few walks and then he would look to be at least a major league average 3B. If he could stick at SS or maybe 2B he could be a very good player.

If Jackson was traded straight up for Santos I think the Jays would be happy.

This goes against the spirit of the thread but why rank him? He's locked in at SS at Syracuse until he either begins knocking on Toronto's door or someone challenges him from the lower minors. He has no one pushing him from the lower minors (this would have been different had JP taken Troy Tulowitzki in the draft) and Adams and Hill are low cost solutions at the major league level for the foreseeable future. Santos has time. He can take a year, or two, or three to show what he can do.

Needless, to say this is a big year for him, but especially so to make his mark since it isn't apparent whether JP views him as a part of our future plans or more along the lines of something of a throw in (has he made any comment on him at all since the trade?).

Santos' glove is a significant factor in any ranking. The reports I've read indicate that his shortstop defence improved a great deal in 2005, all the more remarkable conisdering he was dying at the plate and learning a brand new league and team at the same time. His size may indicate a shift to 3B eventually, but if he can play a fine short, I'd leave him there.

His bat looks like it has potential, but it will need time to come around. Compare Santos to Felipe Lopez, who slugged .506 with 16 homers in just 90 games at AAA at 21, and Lopez wasn't playing in the PCL. Santos' plate discipline isn't nearly as abysmal as Lopez's was, but he doesn't walk a whole lot either and isn't likely to start anytime soon. If Santos manages to hit .291/.352/.486 in the majors at 25, as Lopez did last season, the Jays will be thrilled -- but keep in mind, it took Lopez 1,000 major-league at-bats just to crack a .240 career average. And while Santos doesn't appear to have Lopez's maturity issues, Lopez was a significantly better hitter in the minors. It could well be three full years before Santos can deliver on his potential at the plate in the majors.

All of which is to say, if Santos can play a solid shortstop at the major-league level, I suspect the Jays could live with a poor batting line for the first year or so of a Toronto career. In that sense, Santos' biggest asset to the organization right now might be to push Russ Adams, who otherwise has no competition for his job following Aaron Hill's position shift (I'm not suggesting any unprofessionalism on Adams' part, but virtually everyone performs better when getting pressed from behind). I wouldn't be surprised to see Santos get a lot of playing time in Dunedin early next spring, so that everyone -- including Adams -- can see just what they have on their hands here.

Right now, I'd call Santos a solid Top Ten prospect in this organzation, and if you like your high-ceiling players, he's Top Five. But I sure wouldn't deal Adam Lind to get him.

Everyone, include Ricciardi, is keeping their fingers crossed and holding their breath, hoping that Sergio recovers and explodes to the upside. All that can be said right now is that he is a fine prospect. Give him time.

It may be too easy to slot him into Jackson's empty #4 hole but it's not an unreasonable place to put him. that's how I'd do it.

Mylegacy,

Here's an excerpt from BA's report before the 2005 season:

"He reached Double-A at age 20 and was having a solid season until it was ended by surgery on his non-throwing shoulder....Santos’ shoulder has bothered him throughout his pro career and the Diamondbacks believe it has held him back offensively and defensively."

Not sure you can blame any of his 2005 work on that unless you file it under long recovery time. Still, it's good to know it was not his throwing shoulder that was the problem.

Check out his K/BB ratios the last couple of years:

2004: 24BB/89K 3.7K:BB
2005: 34BB/108K 3.2K:BB

Can't control the strikezone and doesn't hit for much power. Unless things change significantly he looks like John McDonald without the glove.

Dunno where this should be posted, but it just occurred to me that the higher ups at Da Box are gonna have to change the logo! Funny that it took me a while to realize that Orlando was still swinging away at the top of the page. Had everyone else already noticed?

Yes, we're all aware of it. It's a busy time right now or otherwise it would be changed.

Consider it the 'gone but not forgotten' banner.

'Unless things change significantly he looks like John McDonald without the glove.'


Let's not go crazy. Going into 2005, PECOTA has his most similar player Aramis Ramirez. Sure there is Tripper Johnson and Jared Sandberg, but there is also Wily Mo Pena in the top 10.

It's a bit early in the game to write Santos off, and it's certainly too early to compare him to McDonald, who's got a career slugging percentage of .312.

I'm looking at around four hours to re-do the banner, since many of the elements will depend on the image that we choose and I'll just have to fool around with it until it looks good.

The O-Dog one took about six hours, on and off, over a full week of minor tweaks and feedback from the Roster.

Unfortunately, I'm in the middle of a really huge job right now, plus it's Christmas/New Year's/my son's first birthday all at the same time, and I really don't think that I'll get to it before February. However, since it keeps coming up, I'll make a thread about it so that it doesn't take over a different thread.

Here are league averages in the PCL. Tucson is a favorable environment to hit. Santos' performance last year was very poor. Santos' lines in the Texas League and the California League were nothing great, and not really comparable to Quiroz' lines in the Eastern League and FSL. Santos is a tools hound. He's going to have develop either some semblance of plate discipline or big-time power to be an everyday regular in the major leagues. He is young enough that he could.

If PECOTA lists Aramis Ramirez as a comp for Santos, they need to do some work on the system. Ramirez was in triple A by age 19, and had on-base percentages over .400 and slugging percentages over .500 with a positive W/K ratio at age 20-21 with significant major league time. He was a certifiably great hitting prospect. Wily Mo Pena is a somewhat better comp, but at age 22, Pena had hit .259/.316/.527 in 350 PAs in the major leagues. Perhaps these were the PECOTA comps prior to 2005.

So, for me, the question is whether Santos is a better prospect than Ryan Roberts. He is younger and definitely has a chance to be better, but I don't think that he will. I'd rather have Roberts, and I make Santos about the Jays' 15th-17th best prospect.

'If PECOTA lists Aramis Ramirez as a comp for Santos, they need to do some work on the system. Ramirez was in triple A by age 19, and had on-base percentages over .400 and slugging percentages over .500 with a positive W/K ratio at age 20-21 with significant major league time. He was a certifiably great hitting prospect. Wily Mo Pena is a somewhat better comp, but at age 22, Pena had hit .259/.316/.527 in 350 PAs in the major leagues. Perhaps these were the PECOTA comps prior to 2005.'

It was pre-2005. Santos was horrible in 2005, he probably shouldn't have been in AAA.

As for Santos verus Roberts, there is no doubt in my mind I'd take Santos. I'll take the 10% chance that Santos turns into an above average every day major leaguer.

To say you'd rather have Roberts you'd have to believe that in 2007 (when Santos is 24, which Roberts was last season), Santos wouldn't be able to put up a 272/379/479 line in the Eastern League. I have never seen Santos except in spring training, but if he can't field better then Roberts, I don't see how he's played SS throughout his entire minor league career. There is no way that Roberts could handle SS.

Prospects who are unquestionably ahead of Santos are McGowan, Purcey, Janssen and Lind. Prospects whom I probably wouldn't trade even-up to get him are Banks, Quiroz, Thigpen, Cannon and Roberts (I'm increasingly ambivalent about GQ, however). But in overall terms of age, tools, and level attained, I really don't see anyone else in the Jays' system who can outshine Santos. Ergo, I think he's top ten.

John McDonald hit a grand total of 11 home runs in more than 2,000 minor-league at-bats; Santos hit 12 HRs at AAA in a miserable season in 2005. At 23, McDonald was posting a 573 OPS in Double-A; at 23, Santos will be starting his second year at Triple-A with a healthy shoulder. Santos offers significantly more than McDonald.

I'd rather have Marcum (by a country mile), Davis Romero, Rosario, Ricky Romero and Chi-hung Cheng than Santos. Perhaps Marcum is no longer considered a prospect.

I tend to think of Marcum, like League, as a big-leaguer now, but both of them are certainly superior to Santos. But as for Santos vs. the rest of your list, Mike, I'd call it a toss-up -- especially in this organization, which needs all the position players it can get.

We'll know more once Santos has spent some time as a Skychief. I think he has substantially more to offer than we've seen thus far.

'Marcum (by a country mile), Davis Romero, Rosario, Ricky Romero and Chi-hung Cheng'

I'd put it at about 50/50 that Santos has more value in his career then Marcum, Davis Romero, Rosario and Cheng combined.

Rosario is the perfect example of these types of pitchers. The jump from AA to AAA pretty much ruined his peripherals.

K/9 rate
AA: 8.4
AAA: 6.2

Cheng is young and has a live arm, but he hasn't even gotten to high-A, and walked almost 5 per 9 in the Midwest League. He walked so many guys that he struck out over 9 per 9 innings and still wasn't above 2:1 K:BB.

I like Marcum, but look what happened to his home run rate at Syracuse. The walks went down, but it's tough to make a living in the majors when you are giving up that many home runs in AAA.

Davis Romero has nice ratios in the low minors. He also was ignored in the Rule 5 draft, so I'm not the only one who thinks some success at a higher level is in order before he's a legitimate option.

Santos had a horrible 2005, but until I see what he does injury free - I'm not putting marginal pitching prospects ahead of him.

Close to the top 10 now but I'm betting he will move up fast once the season starts. Sometimes a change of scenery does wonders as well as the other already mentioned factors like health, 2nd year at a level, etc. Considering the lack of organizational depth other than pitching I think getting Santos in the deal was a nice bonus.

I agree, Jordan, that the organization needs hitting prospects, but they need better ones than Santos. I basically also concur with Jim's assessment that Santos has a 10% chance of making it as an above-average major leaguer. I think the figure is a somewhat high, but reasonable.

I also think that the Romeros, Cheng and Rosario each have a 10-20% chance of being above-average major leaguers. Incidentally, if Santos is indeed a better prospect than Ricky Romero, then Romero must have been a terrible choice with the #6 overall pick last year. I didn't agree with the choice (I preferred Maybin), but I gave the Jay scouting department some respect in that I assumed that they had chosen a player who had a better than 10% chance of being an above-average major leaguer.

John Sickels will routinely grade 1st round picks at B or higher until they show otherwise, and Ricky Romero has not had the chance to do that.

'Incidentally, if Santos is indeed a better prospect than Ricky Romero'

I certainly don't think he's a better prospect then Ricky Romero. Baseball America has Ricky Romero at #2 I believe, if I remember the Callis chat correctly.

In the latest issue of Baseball America, the Jays top 10 prospects are as follows:
1) Dustin McGowan
2) Ricky Romero
3) David Purcey
4) Adam Lind
5) Josh Banks
6) Casey Janssen
7) Brandon League
8) Franciso Rosario
9) Curtis Thigpen
10) Vince Perkins

This was published before the Glaus trade, so Santos is not rated.

Here is a comparison of BA's top 10 and Batters Box adjusted top ten. I have adjusted Batters Box top ten to remove Zach Jackson and move everyone else up one place.

Dustin McGowan   BA #1; BBox #1
Ricky Romero     BA #2; BBox #6
David Purcey     BA #3; BBox #2
Adam Lind        BA #4; BBox #4
Josh Banks       BA #5; BBox #7
Casey Janssen    BA #6; BBox #3
Brandon League   BA #7; BBox unranked
Franciso Rosario BA #8; BBox #9
Curtis Thigpen   BA #9; BBox #11
Vince Perkins    BA #10; BBox #13

Ranked by Batters Box and not in BA's top ten: Guillermo Quiroz #5; Shaun Marcum #8. Batters Box assumed Brandon League no longer qualified as a rookie. The biggest difference is with Ricky Romero where BA loves high draft picks. BA likes Josh Banks a little more than Batters Box while we like Casey Janssen more. In general the lists are very close.

Gerry what are your thoughts on Erik Kratz? BA rated him the best defensive catcher in the system. Is that more of a comment on how far Quiroz has fallen in the organization or is Kratz a guy to really keep an eye on.

I won't speak for Gerry, but Erik Kratz is 25 and barely snuck over the Mendoza line last year in double A New Hampshire. He's got his work cut out for him. Quiroz' defence has definitely suffered with the health problems of the last 2 and 1/2 years.

As Mike said Eric needs to improve his offense. He is a very good defensive catcher and a real nice guy. He will probably get a second chance at AA this year and will look to improve his offense. Eric does have some pop, eleven home runs, but needs to make more consistent contact. The Jays sent Eric to the Arizona fall league this year to get more experience and he will have ex-major league catcher Jody Davis managing him in 2006. As with many catchers Eric may take a few extra years to make the big leagues.

Quiroz's defence in 2005, when he played, was disappointing. One Blue Jay insider suggested to me that because of his injuries Quiroz had gotten a bit heavy and needed to lose twenty pounds. As a result his reactions were a little slow this year. Quiroz needs to come to camp in shape to have a chance at the major league job. The Phillips signing was a shot across his bow.