Geez, that Reardon news is sad to see. Here he was, at one point the all-time record holder for lifetime saves, a premium baseball player in an era of multi-million dollar contracts. Now he is a criminal, stealing jewels in a very pathetic way.
No, now he has been CHARGED with theft. We're all innocent until proven guilty.Also, there's a real chance the Jays might stick with what they have. Platoons of Koskie/Hillenbrand and Hinske/Rios give the Jays lineup a lot of flexibility.
I'll be the first to admit that it's a little expensive to have 15 MM worth of players for 1.5 lineup spots, but if the trade market really is that weak for HHK, I can't see the logic in selling low. And it's not like Overbay and Glaus won't need days off to keep them fresh.
The only other issue is roster spots. If they Jays stand pat, then they are going to be forced to go with a 11-man pitching staff. Which I don't think is an entirely bad idea. It's pretty hard getting the 7th man in the bullpen enough work to keep him fresh.
Looks like League, McGowan, and Marcum are headed back to AAA for the time being. And whoever loses the competition for swingman (Downs vs. Walker) will probably be picked up by another major league team.
If switching jobs meant that we could make the playoff equivalent chances even greater, I'd switch in a heartbeat.
However, from the individual point of view in working a business type job, people are more looking into what they can do for themselves instead of what they can do for the business. Why? Because there isn't really an equivalent of winning a world series in a regular job.
Now, you bring up a good point. I'm assuming that Koskie will be better than Glaus. It may be premature to make that assumption.
Who will he pinch-hit for?
- Halladay - AJ Burnett - Lilly - Towers - Chacin3 year and 5 year numbers for the above suggest that only Halladay is a great bet to beat him.
Player 5yr IP 5yr ERA+ 3yr IP 3yr ERA+ Halladay 177.1 149.4 180.2 148.1 Batista 158.1 116.0 155.6 115.1 Burnett 145.9 113.2 117.3 113.3 Towers 111.4 103.3 129.8 110.1 Lilly 144.5 101.4 167.3 102.1 Chacin N/A N/A 72.3 123.5So I think you'd expect Batista to outpitch at least 2, probably 3, and maybe even 4 of the Jays starting pitchers next year (cumulatively, you'd expect in a head to head bet he'd pitch better than any except Halladay - unless you believe one year of Chacin shows his true ability, then maybe you think he'd Chacin would out pitch him), assuming he's in the starting rotation in Arizona.
Toronto OPS+ OPS+ Boston Glaus 126 156 Ramirez Overbay 115 151 Ortiz Wells 114 130 Nixon Koskie 111 125 Veritek Catalanotto 107 120 Loretta Hill 92 113 Lowell Adams 91.4 104 Petagine Zaun 89.5 78.4 Cora Rios 83 34 Stern? (The sox have no CF on the roster, but can surely add one whose better) Average 103.2 112.3 Average Bench Hillenbrand 103 103 Youkilis Hinske 99.5 98 Graffanino Johnson 89.9 69.6 FlahertySo the Jays bench is a bit better and deeper than the Sox, and you might think someone like Lowell is all done and Petagine is too old (but then they have Graffanino and Youkilis who can step in with out too much of a loss). Even with virtually no one in CF (using Stern's cup of coffee 34 numbers) and even with Alex Cora as SS (and they might use one of the 2b/3b as SS and play one of Youklis or Graffanino insted of Cora) the Sox still have an average OPS+ nearly 10 points higher than the Jays and the Sox average is higher than ALL but 3 of the Jays. If the Sox put even a 75 OPS+ player in CF then the average starting lineup OPS+ for the Red Sox (using these three year averages) is higher than the OPS+ for every single Jay bar Glaus. So no the Jays lineup is not better than the Sox right now.
Truth is, at least one of the 1B/3B/DH types does have to be moved. Otherwise, the team is locked into a 5-man bench (which is fine, since it means only an 11-man pitching staff, which I prefer), but that these 5 are made up of: Quiroz (or a proxy backup CA), McDonald, one of the LF platoon and 2 of Hillenbrand, Koskie and Hinske.
While I don't expect an upgrade over McDonald, an additional middle infielder, or a third catcher, it would be nice to see one of the "glut" replaced with a 5th outfielder, preferably a LHB. Tell me that someone cheap like a Davanon wouldn't be more valuable than hanging on to an oh so redundant Hinske.
SPLIT AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Home 322 45 82 20 2 10 29 28 3 70 14 5 .255 .318 .422 .741 Away 318 66 103 17 9 12 52 24 4 62 8 5 .324 .379 .547 .926I also think that you can't base everything on what can go wrong. You base it on what you expect to go well. So much could go wrong with Grady. He could lose his speed. He could test positive for steroids. He could be arrested on a robbery rap. He could hit like Tom Sizemore when he gets to the Jays.
Shannon Stewart showed a much better OBP but less power and far fewer strikeouts than Sizemore and he stole 51 of 69 bags attempted in his first full season. Last season he had one of his worst seasons: no speed, no OBP, no slugging.
This from a guy who ranked 4th in MVP voting a few seasons ago in 2003.
So is Sizemore looking much more valuable than Stewart in his early days? Sure, Sizemore can be credited with a better defensive rating you say, but still you don't know that McGowan will fall apart any better than you know what will happen with Sizemore.
