I haven't heard anything new about... well, anything, but people are clamoring for a new general hot-stove thread.
And that's what this is.
And that's what this is.
I've been wondering what position Nomar would play if the Jays signed him. I like his anti-Soriano stance:
The 32-year-old Garciaparra has made it known he's willing to play any position but pitcher and catcher.
This is from an ESPN article http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2253799 . Sorry, I can't do the tiny URL thing. It also mentions that Nomar's good buddies with Lou Merloni, who just signed with the Indians, perhaps making him more likely to sign there. So where would Nomar play with the Jays? RF? 3B?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/scorecard/12/09/truth.rumors.mlb/index.html
"Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said he's still hoping to land one or two more bats. He continues to pursue free agents Nomar Garciaparra and Reggie Sanders and hopes to very shortly deal for Brad Wilkerson. -- Toronto Star"
"Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said he's still hoping to land one or two more bats. He continues to pursue free agents Nomar Garciaparra and Reggie Sanders and hopes to very shortly deal for Brad Wilkerson. -- Toronto Star"
I posted these elsewhere, but this is a more appropriate yadda-yadda-yadda...
A couple of trades I could see being worked out:
Zito for Wilkerson
Abreu and Rollins for Tejada
(I'm sure spare parts would be needed to fill out the deals)
A couple of trades I could see being worked out:
Zito for Wilkerson
Abreu and Rollins for Tejada
(I'm sure spare parts would be needed to fill out the deals)
Omar Minaya gave Julio Franco a 2 year contract. 2 years? Good lord.
I saw that, Jim. I was hoping it would be three years so they could bring him his 50th birthday cake on the field.
Zaun's take on the recent Jay's transactions
here
I'm wondering if the Jays have any interest at all in Benjie Molina? Since the Mets got LoDuca, I haven't really heard of any team pursuing catchers and I wonder about the market for him (although Hernandez's deal with the O's has set the market price for catchers...).
Would the Jays consider using him in a split role between catcher and DH? Could they afford him?
Would the Jays consider using him in a split role between catcher and DH? Could they afford him?
I would hope that they would not plan to use Molina as a DH. I could see Piazza splitting time between catcher and DH, but Molina better not be the plan at DH.
Garciaparra would be great for a "play-anywhere" role.
Garciaparra would be great for a "play-anywhere" role.
Just thinking out loud, but I haven't seen any vigorous discussion of how the Sox and Yankees have fared this off-season yet. Not surprising considering how active JP has been, but I'm curious how all this activity stacks up against the Yankees/Sox (and, now that you mention it, Baltimore and TB. Tell me again why they're a non-factor.)
Seems to me that with both the top two teams getting long in the tooth in terms of pitching, one, but probably not both, are due for a (hard?) fall, but are the Jays guaranteed to be the ones to move up in their place?
Seems to me that with both the top two teams getting long in the tooth in terms of pitching, one, but probably not both, are due for a (hard?) fall, but are the Jays guaranteed to be the ones to move up in their place?
The Angels and Red Sox made virtually no progress in trade talks regarding Manny Ramirez. According to a source, Boston first asked for a package headed by pitcher Ervin Santana and Kotchman, but the Red Sox were told Santana is not available. The Red Sox countered with a request for one of two pitchers, Kelvim Escobar or Scot Shields, two of three prospects from a pool of shortstop Brandon Wood, second baseman Howie Kendrick and shortstop Erick Aybar, and one other minor leaguer. But the Angels turned that down as well.
-- Los Angeles Times
I can't see why the Angels would be so against either of these proposals, particulary the later, an organization like the angels with such a deep minor league system has to be willing to pull the trigger on a deal like this, manny is just to good
-- Los Angeles Times
I can't see why the Angels would be so against either of these proposals, particulary the later, an organization like the angels with such a deep minor league system has to be willing to pull the trigger on a deal like this, manny is just to good
Molina's a 320/420 player (and slow). That's not an upgrade on Zaun (at least offensively) and it's certainly not someone you want DHing. I can't imagine him signing for less than $5 million a year, and the Jays can use that money better elsewhere.
(BBRef added a highliter to its page which is pretty cool ... it'll make sense when you use it)
(BBRef added a highliter to its page which is pretty cool ... it'll make sense when you use it)
I'm not counting out the Yankees and Red Sox offseasons until April 1st. I can't believe that the Red Sox will go into 2006 with a Youkilis/Loretta/Pagoda/Lowell infield. Most statheads would have no problems with this infield but I imagine the Red Sox will cave into public pressure and bring in more established talent. The Yankees have been too quiet. I figure they still have many moves to make. They also can't go into 2006 after such a quiet offseason. Right now their marketing team's best slogan is: The 2006 NYY - We Got Farnsworth!
Of course the Jays should look much different than their current incarnation as well. Right now we are overbudget. Players and contracts will have to go. Though I'm worried that no contract that needs to go has been traded yet. Other teams don't seem to want Koskie, Shea, Hinske, or Batista. Who can blame them? Any fool can throw big money at free agents but the true test of JP's winter will be how much flotsam he can jettison. I love the why don't we get Tejada/Piazza/Lecroy/Thomas/Wilkerson/Nomar/Molina talk going on at Batter's Box. But few are considering how the team would make finances work. And those that do base their analyses on trades that make no sense to the other side.
Blue Jay fans seem to have their Darcy Tucker hats on; i.e. let's trade for (insert any NHL superstar). We'll simply trade them Tucker. GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEADS LEAFS FANS. NO ONE WANTS TUCKER! Sorry for the stream of consciousness post.
Of course the Jays should look much different than their current incarnation as well. Right now we are overbudget. Players and contracts will have to go. Though I'm worried that no contract that needs to go has been traded yet. Other teams don't seem to want Koskie, Shea, Hinske, or Batista. Who can blame them? Any fool can throw big money at free agents but the true test of JP's winter will be how much flotsam he can jettison. I love the why don't we get Tejada/Piazza/Lecroy/Thomas/Wilkerson/Nomar/Molina talk going on at Batter's Box. But few are considering how the team would make finances work. And those that do base their analyses on trades that make no sense to the other side.
Blue Jay fans seem to have their Darcy Tucker hats on; i.e. let's trade for (insert any NHL superstar). We'll simply trade them Tucker. GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEADS LEAFS FANS. NO ONE WANTS TUCKER! Sorry for the stream of consciousness post.
Two years sounds silly for Franco but it's 2 years for a total of $2.2 million which is hardly anything for the Mets. And Franco's been good the last few years.
For a backup 1B and pinch hitter it's a decent move.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/francju01.shtml
For a backup 1B and pinch hitter it's a decent move.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/francju01.shtml
"The Red Sox continue to have their eyes on Ken Huckaby as a possible solution for the catching vacancy created by the trade of Doug Mirabelli to the Padres."
From this article - http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=116411
I like Huck, but is this all that is out there for backup Catcher?
From this article - http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=116411
I like Huck, but is this all that is out there for backup Catcher?
Two years sounds silly for Franco but it's 2 years for a total of $2.2 million
That's hardly any money for a player entering his prime, his age 27 and 28 seasons. Oh, wait a sec, it's his age 47 and 48 seasons. Dad, do you mind babysitting your grandkids this weekend? Sorry son, but I've got this series at Shea that I need to be at.
Actually, I think this is intended to segue into a coaching gig upon his retirement. Gotta lock up your coaches early, dontchaknow?
I'm going to try to put together a trade that might make sense (from both sides) for Wilkerson , without giving up Hudson. I suggest Batista, League and Rios for Wilkerson. League has a great sinker and new pitching coach Mark Connor loves him from his days in Toronto. Batista was a groundball pitcher before 15 of his 17 pitches were taken away as our closer last year. Texas is soooo desperate for groundball pitchers, they're considering signing one of the Aruban Knights (Ponson). They can do better than that.
As for Rios, he needs to play CF and he would be the best one on their depth chart at that point (Mench, Delucci, Matthews, Nix, and Sledge are the other OFs). They could either keep Rios and let Rudy Jaramillo try to get his mojo back or use him in a package to get some more pitching. They'd have to find a toolsy loving GM, say Jim Bowden again, or maybe the Pirates, who were interested in him previously and have decent young pitching. The other OFs could also be used for pitching.
Either that or offer a pitching prospect (not in our top 5, we're already giving up League, with groundball inducing abilities: Bauxites with better knowledge of the prospects please help), instead of Rios. Let's get this guy and then go for Garciaparra.
As long as we can find teams willing to offer a Scott Wiggins type for Hinske first and then Hillenbrand (if that's the best we can do; the goal is to remove salary first in these situations), we can get these salaries off the payroll. They may take a while to move, but eventually somebody will want them, even if it's just for the proverbial bag of baseballs. Then, a backup catcher who can give Zaun more rest this year. I hate seeing the little guy get so fatigued. Let's do this.
As for Rios, he needs to play CF and he would be the best one on their depth chart at that point (Mench, Delucci, Matthews, Nix, and Sledge are the other OFs). They could either keep Rios and let Rudy Jaramillo try to get his mojo back or use him in a package to get some more pitching. They'd have to find a toolsy loving GM, say Jim Bowden again, or maybe the Pirates, who were interested in him previously and have decent young pitching. The other OFs could also be used for pitching.
Either that or offer a pitching prospect (not in our top 5, we're already giving up League, with groundball inducing abilities: Bauxites with better knowledge of the prospects please help), instead of Rios. Let's get this guy and then go for Garciaparra.
As long as we can find teams willing to offer a Scott Wiggins type for Hinske first and then Hillenbrand (if that's the best we can do; the goal is to remove salary first in these situations), we can get these salaries off the payroll. They may take a while to move, but eventually somebody will want them, even if it's just for the proverbial bag of baseballs. Then, a backup catcher who can give Zaun more rest this year. I hate seeing the little guy get so fatigued. Let's do this.
Thanks actionjackson. That was well thought out and reasonable.
Texas' problem with the Batista+Rios package is that they may be hesitant about Rios' ability to play centerfield and Batista's ability to be a league average starter. Add in League and the Rangers trade away a sure thing for three unknowns. The desire for Hudson is the desire to get back at least one known quantity. I (and others) have posted that Kinsler is slotted at 2B for Texas. However, a rookie 2B is another unknown. I don't begrudge Texas refusing a Rios/Batista/League package. Also, Wilkerson will probably make as much as Batista so the deal doesn't do much to clear salary.
Texas' problem with the Batista+Rios package is that they may be hesitant about Rios' ability to play centerfield and Batista's ability to be a league average starter. Add in League and the Rangers trade away a sure thing for three unknowns. The desire for Hudson is the desire to get back at least one known quantity. I (and others) have posted that Kinsler is slotted at 2B for Texas. However, a rookie 2B is another unknown. I don't begrudge Texas refusing a Rios/Batista/League package. Also, Wilkerson will probably make as much as Batista so the deal doesn't do much to clear salary.
Christian, I think you are underestimating the value of Batista. I think Batista could still be counted on for 150-200IP and a ERA in the mid-4s. Batista could definitely be a serviceable starter.
Also, Batista is not an unknown quantity. Between 2001-2004, Batista made 107 starts with reasonable success. His 2001 and 2003 season both have ERAs well below 4. Although an argument could be made that he has regressed since his Arizona days, I feel like he is still capable of performing at a solid #4/5 level. If I am a GM, I would be more willing to gamble on Batista at $5mil/1yr than say Loaiza at $21mil/3yrs.
Now that Kenny Rogers is gone, Batista would likely slot in as the #2 starter for Texas (behind Chris Young). Batista would definitely be an upgrade over the majority of the starters they had last year.
Also, Batista is not an unknown quantity. Between 2001-2004, Batista made 107 starts with reasonable success. His 2001 and 2003 season both have ERAs well below 4. Although an argument could be made that he has regressed since his Arizona days, I feel like he is still capable of performing at a solid #4/5 level. If I am a GM, I would be more willing to gamble on Batista at $5mil/1yr than say Loaiza at $21mil/3yrs.
Now that Kenny Rogers is gone, Batista would likely slot in as the #2 starter for Texas (behind Chris Young). Batista would definitely be an upgrade over the majority of the starters they had last year.
Just heard JP on WFAN in NY for 20 minutes.
Piazza isn't a fit according to Riccardi.
Nomar isn't a financial fit, JP thinks he's got some much bigger dollar opportunities so he thinks he's out of the picture on Garciaparra.
Piazza isn't a fit according to Riccardi.
Nomar isn't a financial fit, JP thinks he's got some much bigger dollar opportunities so he thinks he's out of the picture on Garciaparra.
I don't disagree with you but I was playing devil's advocate putting on the hat of the opposing team's GM. I think Batista is a league average starter but Texas is right to question his durability over a season. However, I didn't realize how light Texas' rotation is.
By the way, I found this picture on deadspin.com and it made me smile. Maybe we can add it to the site somewhere
Batista has been known for his durability, but you're right, he hasn't started for a year so there might be problems. I would also agree with you that if I am the Texas GM, I wouldn't trade straight up Wilkerson for Batista, but if we throw in League and Rios that is more than I am willing to pay. I think we are all a little biased against Batista because of all the heart attacks he put us through last season, but he really is not that bad of a pitcher.
Cristian, I love that!
One two, cha cha cha!
Jim, anything about Wilkerson, keeping Hudson, other names???
Actionjackson, I like that trade too. BUT we don't need/want to get rid of Hilly. Overbay is an upgrade at 1st both with the bat and glove. Hilly is DH and back up 1st and 3rd. I prefer we move Koskie, gives Hill a job, saves money and sell/trade/move Hinske also saves money. Hinske to O's for a prospect suits me. Then we need Wilkerson/Mench, whatever.
One two, cha cha cha!
Jim, anything about Wilkerson, keeping Hudson, other names???
Actionjackson, I like that trade too. BUT we don't need/want to get rid of Hilly. Overbay is an upgrade at 1st both with the bat and glove. Hilly is DH and back up 1st and 3rd. I prefer we move Koskie, gives Hill a job, saves money and sell/trade/move Hinske also saves money. Hinske to O's for a prospect suits me. Then we need Wilkerson/Mench, whatever.
Did anyone notice this little gem in Baker's article (sorry if it's been discussed somewhere else already):
After lunch, Star columnist Richard Griffin and I head back to the media room to peruse the Internet. We scour a couple of baseball forums, checking to see how many people are insulting him on this particular day. I offer a couple of suggestions on how to best antagonize the repeat offenders in his next column. He duly notes them.
If it makes you feel any better Mr. Griffin, we don't insult you because we don't like you as a person, it's beacause we think you're a terrible baseball reporter who uses petty vendettas and rediculous faulty logic to misinform your readers in order to prove your own ego right rather than actually report baseball in Toronto. But other than that you're all right. You don't have to do anything special to antagonize us, just keep being you.
I had to take a phone call for about 3 mintues during the interview. Ed Coleman and Sweeny Murti didn't ask about Wilkerson or Hudson when I had the volume up.
You can listen to the interview at WFAN.com It's listed under Featured Audio on the main page.
You can listen to the interview at WFAN.com It's listed under Featured Audio on the main page.
"[Tejada] has only been here two years, so I don't know what he's talking about," Angelos said. "We're not spending $50 million on a closer who's been a closer for only one year and $55 million for a guy who hasn't won more than 12 games in a year. If that's what his criticism is based on, it just shows he wouldn't be a great general manager." -- from the Washington Post
Pretty scathing criticism from Peter Angelos. He seems to have killed two birds (pun intended...) with one stone, shutting down Tejada and spewing venom at Ricciardi. Looks like the Jays' signing have stirred up the AL East more than just on the field...
Cristian..
I'm new here (and I apologize for the OT thread), but I beg to differ - Darcy Tucker is a pretty good NHL player making a reasonable salary..
He's a much better deal than, say, Lapointe at $5M/per. While not every GM would want Tucker, I COULD see quite a few GMs interested at his price point..
He currently is tied for 17-28 place with 13 goals..
I honestly think Tucker is MUCH more tradable than Hinske and maybe even Hillenbrand. Shea's a decent player, but his salary's just a bit high, IMO.
VW
I'm new here (and I apologize for the OT thread), but I beg to differ - Darcy Tucker is a pretty good NHL player making a reasonable salary..
He's a much better deal than, say, Lapointe at $5M/per. While not every GM would want Tucker, I COULD see quite a few GMs interested at his price point..
He currently is tied for 17-28 place with 13 goals..
I honestly think Tucker is MUCH more tradable than Hinske and maybe even Hillenbrand. Shea's a decent player, but his salary's just a bit high, IMO.
VW
I don't dispute that Tucker would be of use to many teams. However many Leaf fans overvalue him and assume he's all it would take to land top tier talent. People don't take off their fan hats and think 'is there any way the opposing team makes this trade?' It's what is happening here in many of the deals proposed. I guess it's only natural and its a byproduct of people being excited about the Jays. Which is a good thing, I guess.
Thanks Jim!
I STRONGLY recommend listening to the JP interview.
12 mins long. Lots of good but not earthshaking news. Very enjoyable!
WFAN.COM, look under featured interviews.
Jim, thanks again for the heads up!
I STRONGLY recommend listening to the JP interview.
12 mins long. Lots of good but not earthshaking news. Very enjoyable!
WFAN.COM, look under featured interviews.
Jim, thanks again for the heads up!
Just surfing the headlines from a variety of locations and it seems there are an awful lot of teams looking for pitching (be it starters or relievers), including St Louis, San Fran, Texas, Seattle, Atlanta, New York Mets, Washington and the Reds and I would imagine many more teams are looking.
Not all the FA pitchers have signed, with the likes of Weaver, Millwood, and Morris still available.
My point? JP has a couple of very desirable commodities in Lilly and Batista (proven, relatively cheap MLB pitchers). Once the FA market dries up, his leverage in potential deals for hitters should go way up. Waiting for this to happen is a very good strategy. The off-season has a long ways to go yet, and the Jays have already drastically significantly improved the talent on the team, so they can afford to exercise some patience. The price of these commodities may be at it's peak come the trading deadline.
Not all the FA pitchers have signed, with the likes of Weaver, Millwood, and Morris still available.
My point? JP has a couple of very desirable commodities in Lilly and Batista (proven, relatively cheap MLB pitchers). Once the FA market dries up, his leverage in potential deals for hitters should go way up. Waiting for this to happen is a very good strategy. The off-season has a long ways to go yet, and the Jays have already drastically significantly improved the talent on the team, so they can afford to exercise some patience. The price of these commodities may be at it's peak come the trading deadline.
As I write this, the current ESPN.com SportsNation poll on the MLB page asks, "With the additions of A.J. Burnett, Lyle Overbay and B.J. Ryan, where will the Blue Jays finish in the A.L. East next season?"
The overwhelming answer, at 69%, is "third." The other positions are second place (24%), first place (5 percent) and last place (3 percent), with rounding errors, of course. Presumably that last is a bunch of people in the Tampa area.
The interesting thing to me was that for the first time I can remember, a poll has all 50 U.S. states AND the non-U.S. area in agreement -- the entire "results" map is the same colour, with every state and area voting "third."
Hmmm.
After lunch, Star columnist Richard Griffin and I head back to the media room to peruse the Internet. We scour a couple of baseball forums, checking to see how many people are insulting him on this particular day. I offer a couple of suggestions on how to best antagonize the repeat offenders in his next column. He duly notes them.
I, for one, would never insult a baseball columnist. I write for a living myself, and I know how hard it is to produce hundreds of readable words a day. Especially when many baseball people aren't exactly informed and articulate sources. (Plus there's all that chewing tobacco to deal with. Ick.) Anyone who spent the Ash years covering the Jays and was forced to spend months on end in the cavernously empty SkyDome of that era, as Griffin did, deserves sympathy.
However, I've stopped reading the Star columnists, except for the occasional paragraph or two, because they've clearly got their own agenda (oppose J.P., poke fun at seamheads, amuse themselves), and I have mine.
If I want Blue Jays reporting, I go to Jeff Blair's blog, or to ESPN, or to this site.
Honestly, I LOVE IT!
I want the Jays to be the most hated team in the Majors. I want other teams owners to say stuff like this, I just want the Jays to be on the map! Living in New York City, I've seen and heard people kill Steinbrenner and the Yanks about the money they spend. Guess what, their in the playoffs every single season and it's pretty much guarenteed. Plus, their history is the most storied in sports and they turn out a world series contender every year.
Winning is all that matters and I don't care how much the Jays have to overpay guys to do so. Just win some damn ballgames and make it back to the playoffs and win a World Series and it'll all be worth it. Or the Jays can let the prospects develop and such and can win 85 guys and miss the playoffs and we can bitch and moan about the money.
I love what J.P.'s doing but don't stop now! Keep on spending buddy because winning is all that matters. It's either that or get fired. Pick one J.P.
Oh, and Angelos, F OFF. This should piss off Tejada and if I'm the Jays I offer McGowan, Hill, ANYONE THEY WANT to get him.
I want the Jays to be the most hated team in the Majors. I want other teams owners to say stuff like this, I just want the Jays to be on the map! Living in New York City, I've seen and heard people kill Steinbrenner and the Yanks about the money they spend. Guess what, their in the playoffs every single season and it's pretty much guarenteed. Plus, their history is the most storied in sports and they turn out a world series contender every year.
Winning is all that matters and I don't care how much the Jays have to overpay guys to do so. Just win some damn ballgames and make it back to the playoffs and win a World Series and it'll all be worth it. Or the Jays can let the prospects develop and such and can win 85 guys and miss the playoffs and we can bitch and moan about the money.
I love what J.P.'s doing but don't stop now! Keep on spending buddy because winning is all that matters. It's either that or get fired. Pick one J.P.
Oh, and Angelos, F OFF. This should piss off Tejada and if I'm the Jays I offer McGowan, Hill, ANYONE THEY WANT to get him.
That was a great interview at wfan. Too bad though, about being out of the Nomar race.
Also, to those who oppose J.P. and the team spending money just look what it does to the clubhouse. Guys like Zaun, Overbay, Burnett, etc. just seem extremely excited to be a part of this thing. All players care about is teams spending money to show that they are doing everything they can to win. Players don't want to hear about stathead GM's that aren't going to spend cash.
The big deals to land Ryan and Burnett not only help the team on the field, but it just fills the clubhouse with a sense of anticipation. It shows a commitment to winning.
The big deals to land Ryan and Burnett not only help the team on the field, but it just fills the clubhouse with a sense of anticipation. It shows a commitment to winning.
Most surprising thing from that interview was JP's suggestsion that if Batista stays, he goes into the bullpen. I thought for sure he would have been inserted into the rotation.
Not sure why you would think that.. Lilly, Towers, Chacin? He seems the most fitted for a bullpen role on this team, although I think he could be a decent starter for another team. With that said, he could also serve as a contingency planshould something go wrong with any of the starters. I just don't see him staying, unless JP pulls a surprise by dealing Lilly or Chacin.
Have there been any Durazo rumours circulating recently?
Haven't heard his name linked to any teams of late.
I have had Durazo pencilled in on my projected Jays 06 lineup for months and hope he is still a consideration (and yes I know he had TJ surgery, but believe he will return much earlier than forecast given we'd use him only at DH and considering the recent early returns of other MLB position players ie. Luis Gonzalez).
With Durazo at DH and an upgrade at a corner OF slot (Sanders/Wilkerson) few pitchers will look forward to working their way through the Jays lineup.
C: Zaun
1b: Overbay
2b: Hudson
SS: Hill or Adams
3b: Koskie
LF: Cat/Johnson
CF: Wells
RF: Wilkerson or Sanders
DH: Durazo
Sanders and Durazo can be had without sacrificing much of our future (they would essentially only cost us whatever prospects need to be packaged with Hillenbrand and Hinske in shedding their salaries).
We could conceivably significantly improve our offence and manage to keep Hill, Adams, Rios, and our top pitching prospects.
Haven't heard his name linked to any teams of late.
I have had Durazo pencilled in on my projected Jays 06 lineup for months and hope he is still a consideration (and yes I know he had TJ surgery, but believe he will return much earlier than forecast given we'd use him only at DH and considering the recent early returns of other MLB position players ie. Luis Gonzalez).
With Durazo at DH and an upgrade at a corner OF slot (Sanders/Wilkerson) few pitchers will look forward to working their way through the Jays lineup.
C: Zaun
1b: Overbay
2b: Hudson
SS: Hill or Adams
3b: Koskie
LF: Cat/Johnson
CF: Wells
RF: Wilkerson or Sanders
DH: Durazo
Sanders and Durazo can be had without sacrificing much of our future (they would essentially only cost us whatever prospects need to be packaged with Hillenbrand and Hinske in shedding their salaries).
We could conceivably significantly improve our offence and manage to keep Hill, Adams, Rios, and our top pitching prospects.
Depeche Jay, I oppose stupid spending: Benson, Ortiz, Milton (flyball pitcher in an extreme homerun park), Loaiza etc. The $7-8 mil crowd seem to give you what you pay for: mediocrity. If the price for a good pitcher with upside is $11 mil, so be it. Also, I'm sick of hearing people rip us for destroying the market. The contracts above set this market. If you're gonna pay that much to those innings eaters (the polite term for mediocrity these days), you're gonna have to pay Ryan and Burnett significantly more. I don't feel we overpaid except in years and that's just the price of doing business in Toronto.
"[Tejada] has only been here two years, so I don't know what he's talking about," Angelos said. "We're not spending $50 million on a closer who's been a closer for only one year and $55 million for a guy who hasn't won more than 12 games in a year. If that's what his criticism is based on, it just shows he wouldn't be a great general manager."
Poor Angelos. It's focusing and paying for past performance rather than future returns that has the Orioles where they are. Angelos' thinking is what leads to overpaying for an expensive catcher they now desperately wish to deal. Even when they get a chance to value a player for almost his entire career they're easily tricked by one good year amongst a torrent of mediocrity, i.e. Sidney Ponson.
Tejada is the best thing to happen to that organization--a superstar at a key defensive position locked into a favourable contract. It'll be a shame when Angelos lets Tejada's best years go to waste without surrounding him with the talent necessary to win. I guess when MLB guarantees you a profitable franchise (due to the Washington deal) there is no incentive to win and all you can do is complain about those who try to catch the Red Sox and Yankees. Angelos will have less to say to the press once the O's are comfortably settled into 5th place in the division.
Batistas trade value is only to the desperate. In 2004
the Jays where exactly that. After losing Escobar to FA
they needed a counter move on a penny pinching budget.
Voila 'Miguel Batista'.
He was horrible as a starter (10-13,4.80era,96 walks and an OBA of .355!)
Horrible as a closer (Lets not even bother) and consequently -
if the Jays cant move him via trade option 'c' kicks in. Mid releif.
On the mound he has the attention span of a fly and
arsenal of 15 below average pitches.
Its not hard to figure out why the Rangers and others
arent jumping all over him. They know what we know.
As the winter moves along though - someone will get
desperate just as we where in '04.
the Jays where exactly that. After losing Escobar to FA
they needed a counter move on a penny pinching budget.
Voila 'Miguel Batista'.
He was horrible as a starter (10-13,4.80era,96 walks and an OBA of .355!)
Horrible as a closer (Lets not even bother) and consequently -
if the Jays cant move him via trade option 'c' kicks in. Mid releif.
On the mound he has the attention span of a fly and
arsenal of 15 below average pitches.
Its not hard to figure out why the Rangers and others
arent jumping all over him. They know what we know.
As the winter moves along though - someone will get
desperate just as we where in '04.
With the nomar news, I think the focus now shifts for the jays to thomas and sanders -- I would prefer thomas (how the heck could someone with a .219 average put up an ops over .900).
I don't understand where the problem with the budget comes from. IMO, hillenbrand is redundant, and stands to get over 5 Million in arb., while batista has teams calling for him. The hillenbrand situtation reminds me of jose cruz jr., they claimed they needed him to increase his trade value, but when no one bit they non-tendered him. Unless someone picks up all of hinske's contract it's hard to imagine hillenbrand a jay next year.
Does anyone have an idea what the jays proposed to get wilkerson ? Some said rios was included, but it makes no sense at all, texas is flush with outfielders.
I don't understand where the problem with the budget comes from. IMO, hillenbrand is redundant, and stands to get over 5 Million in arb., while batista has teams calling for him. The hillenbrand situtation reminds me of jose cruz jr., they claimed they needed him to increase his trade value, but when no one bit they non-tendered him. Unless someone picks up all of hinske's contract it's hard to imagine hillenbrand a jay next year.
Does anyone have an idea what the jays proposed to get wilkerson ? Some said rios was included, but it makes no sense at all, texas is flush with outfielders.
If we're making hockey comparisons; I'd say that Hinske is like Aki Berg (they both frustate me to no end). Alex Rios reminds me of Antropov at this point (potential is definitely there but they both fail to really bring it every night). One Griffin rant: I agree with some of the things Griffin says but disagree with others. As a columnist it is his job to give his opinion essentially. If you know you aren't going to like it which seems to be the theme here then why keep reading it. It is like repeatedly touching and element on the stove when you know it's hot. You know it's going to hurt and you touch it anyway. I know eventually went cold turkey on Marty York and changed the channel whenever he was on Sportsnet. It was very liberating.
I'm not a big Hilly fan BUT, we absolutely positively FOR SURE need the guy!
We need Overbay to be at least Hilly, Hilly to be Hilly, Koskie to be Hilly and Rios to grow into Hilly's man body (in the most platonic way), we need Zaun to be Hilly and with some luck Hill could be Hilly and Adams... well you get the idea. We cannot afford a BIG bat. Gammons says there are no big right handed bats available anywhere.
If we get Durazo we HOPE he turns into Hilly. If Hinske was Hilly we wouldn't be shopping him.
6 to 8 Hilly's and our pitching staff and you have either a) A Contender or b) fire JP 'cause he got it wrong.
We need Overbay to be at least Hilly, Hilly to be Hilly, Koskie to be Hilly and Rios to grow into Hilly's man body (in the most platonic way), we need Zaun to be Hilly and with some luck Hill could be Hilly and Adams... well you get the idea. We cannot afford a BIG bat. Gammons says there are no big right handed bats available anywhere.
If we get Durazo we HOPE he turns into Hilly. If Hinske was Hilly we wouldn't be shopping him.
6 to 8 Hilly's and our pitching staff and you have either a) A Contender or b) fire JP 'cause he got it wrong.
Newtons right on Erubiel Durazo. He seems to be under the
radar on the trade front, Riccardi and Beane would seem to
make good trade partners and his '04 numbers where
outstanding. Obviously the injury is a concern but if he
can pass a physical - lets deal.
I doubt Beane would want Batista.
Looking at the two rosters it difficult to find an
immediate match.
radar on the trade front, Riccardi and Beane would seem to
make good trade partners and his '04 numbers where
outstanding. Obviously the injury is a concern but if he
can pass a physical - lets deal.
I doubt Beane would want Batista.
Looking at the two rosters it difficult to find an
immediate match.
Hilly's man body
Speaking of man-strength, I wonder if we'll hear from John Hattig anytime in 2006. We can't let Terry Adams' legacy die.
No trade needed, the White Whale is a free agent.
Of course, he's still recovering from his TJ surgery, and I'm not sure how well his recovery is going, but when he first was injured he got the headlines "career in jeopardy", and the A's trainer was suggesting that "You're still looking at seven months, or nine, 12 or 15" (from July) Odd injury though. He first had elbow tendinitis, then after batting practice he was diagnosed as having a torn UCL.
(source: http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/sports/baseball/mlb/oakland_athletics/12176318.htm )
Of course, he's still recovering from his TJ surgery, and I'm not sure how well his recovery is going, but when he first was injured he got the headlines "career in jeopardy", and the A's trainer was suggesting that "You're still looking at seven months, or nine, 12 or 15" (from July) Odd injury though. He first had elbow tendinitis, then after batting practice he was diagnosed as having a torn UCL.
(source: http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/sports/baseball/mlb/oakland_athletics/12176318.htm )
I noticed 2k Sports announced their coverboy for MLB 2K6 and it's ............ Derek Jeter!!!
He must have some sort of coverboy record. I know he was the the ASB guy for along time and now 2K Sports has chosen him 2 years in a row.
It's going to be weird to not have MVP 2006 this season.
BTW ESPN MLB 2k5 has the best audio I've ever heard in a baseball game. Miller and Morgan are amazing.
He must have some sort of coverboy record. I know he was the the ASB guy for along time and now 2K Sports has chosen him 2 years in a row.
It's going to be weird to not have MVP 2006 this season.
BTW ESPN MLB 2k5 has the best audio I've ever heard in a baseball game. Miller and Morgan are amazing.
Sheesh. I didnt know Durazo's injury was so severe.
He'll probably be a right off for most of '06 too.
Back to the drawing board.
He'll probably be a right off for most of '06 too.
Back to the drawing board.
As someone who is irrationally annoyed by video game conversations here at the Box, may I suggest that one of you enthusiasts send in a pinch-hit on the topic and consolidate your discussions there? F'rinstance, it could be a review of the latest and greatest release, or an opinion piece on which is the best game. Just a suggestion, which I think is win-win.
jonny@battersbox.ca
jonny@battersbox.ca
I don't claim to be a doctor but I can't see how Durazo misses more than the first month or 2 of the season.
Come april 1st it will already have been 8-9 months since the injury.
A 37 year old Gonzo played nearly a full season requiring TJ surgery, had the surgery in late July 04, and returned to play in April 05.
We should capitalize on the uncertainty and nab this bargain. The guy doesn't even need to throw!
Worst case scenario he's back in June and we have to put up with 2 months of Hinske/Rios/Johnson/Cat as DH (trade hillenbrand and batista to make room for Durazo and Sanders salary wise).
Durazo mashes righties, he'd instantly become our biggest power threat, and he draws a tonne of walks.
Sign him up JP.
Come april 1st it will already have been 8-9 months since the injury.
A 37 year old Gonzo played nearly a full season requiring TJ surgery, had the surgery in late July 04, and returned to play in April 05.
We should capitalize on the uncertainty and nab this bargain. The guy doesn't even need to throw!
Worst case scenario he's back in June and we have to put up with 2 months of Hinske/Rios/Johnson/Cat as DH (trade hillenbrand and batista to make room for Durazo and Sanders salary wise).
Durazo mashes righties, he'd instantly become our biggest power threat, and he draws a tonne of walks.
Sign him up JP.
Unless J.P has another deal cooking - Durazo might be
a calculated risk worth taking.
Still, it may take Durazo 1-2 months to return to the
groove of '04 even after he's cleared to DH full time.
Mind you - he could be viewed as backburner type bat that
could make a huge difference down the stretch.
a calculated risk worth taking.
Still, it may take Durazo 1-2 months to return to the
groove of '04 even after he's cleared to DH full time.
Mind you - he could be viewed as backburner type bat that
could make a huge difference down the stretch.
Jonny, 2K sports has a monopoly on MLB games now - you don't have much choice in "an opinion piece on which is the best game".
This is half informative and half trying to prolong the video game discussion.
The MVP series was far superior in any event - and with the exclusivity deal it means that baseball will be console exclusive, unless 2K games makes the jump to PC, which they've never done.
This is half informative and half trying to prolong the video game discussion.
The MVP series was far superior in any event - and with the exclusivity deal it means that baseball will be console exclusive, unless 2K games makes the jump to PC, which they've never done.
Oh - and don't forget Miller and Morgan won't be in the next 2K baseball game, as EA got the ESPN licence (though they haven't actually used it for anything).
Also note that Derek Jeter is the default cover athlete for baseball games - when they can't think of one they just pick him.
This is why I like EA at least a bit more - their cover athletes are generally people who did something NOTABLE in the previous season.
But then, what could possibly be more notable than being Derek Jeter? HEART OF A CHAMPION!
Also note that Derek Jeter is the default cover athlete for baseball games - when they can't think of one they just pick him.
This is why I like EA at least a bit more - their cover athletes are generally people who did something NOTABLE in the previous season.
But then, what could possibly be more notable than being Derek Jeter? HEART OF A CHAMPION!
That's some serious revisionist history and creative stat interpretation regarding Batista, Barfieldsgun.
The Jays didn't lose Escobar to free agency, they didn't even attempt to re-sign him because they felt Batista was a better option. Most of us at the time agreed. His 'horrible' year as a starter ranked #36 amongst AL starters in VORP for that year (22.6). As in by league standards he was a solid #3, despite the slip from his the levels he'd established over the prior 3 years. His 'horrible' year as a closer was not only not horrible, but his stats are skewed by a very bad final month - Half his blown saves came after August 22nd, and his ERA rose a full run in that time. Suppose Batista been shut down for the season due to fatigue on August 22nd. Right now we'd all be saying "JP's a moron for signing a new closer to a huge contract".
I believe Batista is best used as a starter, and in 2007 I'd expect him to again be a league-average #3. At $4.75M and no further commitment, that has significant value. Just not 'Brad Wilkerson' value, not on his own.
Oh - and don't forget Miller and Morgan blah blah blah EA blah blah blah Jeter blah blah blah games blah blah blah EA blah blah blah cover athletes blah blah blah Jeter blah blah blah
I take it this means you won't be taking me up on my generous offer to supply you your very own thread for this stuff...
Pete Laforest was signed yesterday by the Padres. Fasano, Torrealba and Laforest can be crossed off the useful right-handed catcher list. There are others, and it's only December, but going into the season with only Quiroz and Zaun is not a good idea. Neither would the third coming of Ken Huckaby be welcome.
Laforest bats lefthanded...watching him flail away at lefties in the Olympics is a painful reminder
Just because one guy returns from an injury in nine months is no guarantee whatsoever that someone else returns from a similar - and let's emphasize similar - injury in the same period of time. Not only are the two athletes different, so is the injury. Even if they receive the same diagnosis and the same treatment. They're as different as fingerprints. No two are alike.
And arm and shoulder injuries are very capable of destroying the careers of Designated Hitters. Ask Larry Hisle.
I'll take you up on your offer. It won't come in some way of a report or analysis about the game(s), but I'd definitely support a thread where we could talk about baseball related videogames. It's an angle of baseball that I'd like to explore, and what better way than to discuss it with the people you talk Jays Baseball the most.
Magpie, that's exactly why I want to know what is going on with Durazo? Haven't heard a thing in weeks.
Linking an article from Last July, while elucidating the nature of the injury, doesn't help at all when the recovery time was projected at any where from 7(hello spring training)-16 (see you in 07) months.
If we can keep 1 of Hillenbrand/Hinske that will help offset the uncertainty surrounding Durazo even if he is out until July.
Linking an article from Last July, while elucidating the nature of the injury, doesn't help at all when the recovery time was projected at any where from 7(hello spring training)-16 (see you in 07) months.
If we can keep 1 of Hillenbrand/Hinske that will help offset the uncertainty surrounding Durazo even if he is out until July.
Jonny German:
"His 'horrible' year as a closer was not only not horrible, but his stats are skewed by a very bad final month - Half his blown saves came after August 22nd, and his ERA rose a full run in that time"
Funny, the offers aren't pouring in for such a solid closer
as Batista. His numbers were skewed by a bad final month?
I thought they were skewed by crappy pitching. Its a
six month season - not five.
He's such a solid number three starter that the Jays have
elected to move him to the pen for mid relief if no deal
can be made. In a year they plan to contend.
The Rangers - ripe with offence and way short on pitching
won't even give up Mench for Batista.
And finally - the Jays lost Escobar Jonny. They couldn't
afford to resign him though they made an offer.
Once it was clear he was gone - they focused on Batista
offering a similar deal to the one they offered Kelvim.
Toronto Star Nov.25th 2003:
[Kelvim Escobar] was seeking a multi-year deal with a raise on his 2003 salary of $3.9 million. The Blue Jays offered him two years worth $10 million, and with signing Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay to a multi-year deal the club's top priority, they had no room to negotiate with Escobar.
"His 'horrible' year as a closer was not only not horrible, but his stats are skewed by a very bad final month - Half his blown saves came after August 22nd, and his ERA rose a full run in that time"
Funny, the offers aren't pouring in for such a solid closer
as Batista. His numbers were skewed by a bad final month?
I thought they were skewed by crappy pitching. Its a
six month season - not five.
He's such a solid number three starter that the Jays have
elected to move him to the pen for mid relief if no deal
can be made. In a year they plan to contend.
The Rangers - ripe with offence and way short on pitching
won't even give up Mench for Batista.
And finally - the Jays lost Escobar Jonny. They couldn't
afford to resign him though they made an offer.
Once it was clear he was gone - they focused on Batista
offering a similar deal to the one they offered Kelvim.
Toronto Star Nov.25th 2003:
[Kelvim Escobar] was seeking a multi-year deal with a raise on his 2003 salary of $3.9 million. The Blue Jays offered him two years worth $10 million, and with signing Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay to a multi-year deal the club's top priority, they had no room to negotiate with Escobar.
I want the Jays to be the most hated team in the Majors. I want other teams owners to say stuff like this,
I'm on board with that. I want the Jays to be that pesky team that are sort of off the radar until you realize that you're playing them next week and you mutter under your breath about those @#!%*! Blue Jays...
I'm on board with that. I want the Jays to be that pesky team that are sort of off the radar until you realize that you're playing them next week and you mutter under your breath about those @#!%*! Blue Jays...
There we go NFH! We can be the pioneers of this train of thought. Anyone who disagrees, well, you can NFH Challenge them to test the size of their stones!
Seriously though, I hope that the Jays are the thorn in the collective sides of Major League Baseball for a long time to come. I still haven't given up hope on this season and I can see, with the way the Jays have improved and the Red Sox/Yankees NOT, the Jays making a legit playoff push.
All aboard! The 06 bandwagon is about to leave Battersbox station!
Seriously though, I hope that the Jays are the thorn in the collective sides of Major League Baseball for a long time to come. I still haven't given up hope on this season and I can see, with the way the Jays have improved and the Red Sox/Yankees NOT, the Jays making a legit playoff push.
All aboard! The 06 bandwagon is about to leave Battersbox station!
You can count Cards GM Walt Jocketty as someone who believe the FA market has gone crazy. I have a feeling he's refering to deals like what AJ and BJ signed for.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5154934
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5154934
Linking an article from Last July, while elucidating the nature of the injury, doesn't help at all when the recovery time was projected at any where from 7(hello spring training)-16 (see you in 07) months.
See, I was being lazy, and I hoped that someone would jump in and say "no, that's all wrong, here's a more recent article". I just did searches of the major A's blog, and none of them had any more recent information, other than the fact that Durazo wouldn't be offered arbitration. So, in this swing of productivity, I did a google search, and the only thing it turned up was a Rotoworld bit that said that the Jays were interested in Durazo, and that he might not be ready for the start of the season. It's surprising that I can't find any information about this, because if there was a relatively early estimated return date, I'd like to see the Jays show some interest.
As someone who is irrationally annoyed by video game conversations here at the Box, may I suggest that one of you enthusiasts send in a pinch-hit on the topic and consolidate your discussions there? F'rinstance, it could be a review of the latest and greatest release, or an opinion piece on which is the best game. Just a suggestion, which I think is win-win.
Seriously? Because I'd like to do something like that, if it'd actually get posted here.
Well Gunner, it's apparent you've got your version of reality and I've got mine, so we'll leave it at that. I would like to point out, though, that the Toronto Star is not a credible source of speculation about what the Blue Jay front office is thinking.
I don't understand how guys like Benson, Milton, Ortiz etc being paid $7-8 mil per can't make Batista look like an outright bargain. Is he not just as good or better than all those guys? Benson hasn't had an ERA+ of 100 (aside from a 101 in '05) or better since 2000. Milton is getting whiplash from all the homeruns he gives up. Ortiz' walkitis finally caught up with him in '05. Please explain to me why we can't put Batista (who hasn't had an ERA+ of less than 100 since 2000) in the proper package (i.e. no O-Dog) to get Wilkerson? These guys look like beer leaguers matched up against him, if we're going on 'stuff' alone. Does anyone have any other ideas as to what it would take to get Wilkerson, without sacrificing Hudson?
Seriously? Because I'd like to do something like that, if it'd actually get posted here
Absolutely. Pinch-hits on baseball related topics are always welcome.
Speaking of The Star not being a credible source for the Jays, has Blair posted lately, I need my fix. I know he needs some sleep, but I need my fix.
Please explain to me why we can't put Batista (who hasn't had an ERA+ of less than 100 since 2000) in the proper package (i.e. no O-Dog) to get Wilkerson?
Easy. It's not a matter of "we can't". It's a matter of we, the public, not knowing what's been offered, let alone how the deep thinkers in Texas and Toronto evaluate the players involved or how the potential moves impact the other potential moves they're considering. Rumours are great, but they're often off base no matter how credible the source.
My speculation on a package including Batista and Hudson for Wilkerson?
a) I doubt it's been offered
b) If I'm Texas maybe I'm happy with Kinsler and therefore am not particularly interested in Hudson.
If I'm JP, I make sure that in order for the Rangers to acquire ODog, the Jays get Kessler in return. In glancing at his AAA stats, I think that he could outhit Hudson *this* year.
I'd hate a Rios-Hudson-Batista for Wilkerson move, but be pretty happy if it fetched both Wilkerson and Kessler.
I'd hate a Rios-Hudson-Batista for Wilkerson move, but be pretty happy if it fetched both Wilkerson and Kessler.
Whoops, I just mangled Kinsler's name...sigh
Dallas Morning News is reporting that Matt Morris has rejected the Rangers offer of 3/$25mil. I get the feeling free agent pitchers are going to stay away from The Ballpark at Arlington in droves. This leaves a Sidney Ponson or a Miguel Batista (or both) as possible solutions to their pitching woes. I just can't see Millwood, Washburn, or Weaver being particularly attracted to Texas as they're not exactly groundball pitchers (especially Washburn!). I think they're going to have to trade for pitching and that JP should see again what it will take to pry Wilkerson loose. Maybe, now that the Rangers Plan A is gone they'll be a little more amenable to making a deal.
I like how we can allow a thread to degenerate into a discussion about coffee, (a discussion, I might add, that was initiated by you, Jonny,) but talk about baseball-related video games is frowned upon.
Anyways, according to the Baltimore Sun, not only does Miguel Tejada want out, but Javy Lopez wants out as well. This isn't exactly surprising since he wants to catch and they just signed Hernandez. I wonder if he would mind splitting time with Zaun 50/50? Of course, he's 35 years old and never had a good defensive reputation, so maybe that's not a good idea. He also makes a lot of money and had a poor year at the playe last year, so I'm probably well off base. But it's something to think about, I guess.
What part of "irrationally" and "Just a suggestion" did you not understand?
Lopez might make a good DH, if he's willing to do that and catch part time. He definitely has slug potential.
Oh come on Jonny, I was just pointing out the irony of you initiating a "coffee" conversation in the Red Sox thread, and then hours later coming into this thread and complaining about people going off-topic.
Just because you prefaced your comments with the acknowledgement that they were irrational doesn't make it less amusing.
Just because you prefaced your comments with the acknowledgement that they were irrational doesn't make it less amusing.
I haven't seen this many diverse opinions on Jays related
items since the days of FireGordAsh.com
items since the days of FireGordAsh.com
I hate to get in the middle of stupid squabbles like this, but message boarding does leave a trail, so two points: (1) Jonny did not start the coffee establishment discussion in the previous thread, Mike Green did as part of a Mike Green Rips Off NFH Challange; and (2) unless I am missing it somewhere, he also didn't claim discussion of videogaming was off-topic, but rather admitted he didn't care for the topic and THEN offered to help set up a separate special thread for it.
Give it up, guys, you're fighting because one of you said "hi guys" and the other thought it was an accusation that the group of discussion participants was a bunch of drug-addled "high guys."
Nothing to see here. Move along.
From what I understand, the general consensus has been that Jon Daniels, the new Rangers GM, has been particularly demanding in terms of trade negotiations, playing hardball or asking too much all across town. Im not sure that the Jays inability to trade for Brad Wilkerson (and teh supposed hefty asking prices) is a result of the inadequacy of the Jays players, as opposed to things on the Rangers end, with Daniels trying to get too much.
Mick, we weren't fighting. I have nothing but respect for Mr. German. I was making an observation that I found amusing. No fighting at all.
As for your two points, well:
Jonny did not start the coffee establishment discussion in the previous thread, Mike Green did as part of a Mike Green Rips Off NFH Challange
Debatable. Mike Green was the first one to mention the word "coffee," but it was Jonny German that turned the whole discussion towards coffee by asking what the best coffee establishment is.
(2) unless I am missing it somewhere, he also didn't claim discussion of videogaming was off-topic, but rather admitted he didn't care for the topic and THEN offered to help set up a separate special thread for it.
Although he didn't say it directly, that is a pretty clear implication that he finds the discussion of videogaming off-topic.
This has gotten beyond stupid. The poster took part in a coffee discussion in a thread about the Red Sox, and then came over here and said he didn't want videogame discussion on the box and wanted a seperate thread for it. I just thought that was funny, so I pointed it out.
Neither of us are fighting about anything. I just thought it was a funny observation. Obviously, the rest of you disagree! Now, on to the baseball talk!
Here's a future poll of the day question:
If the Miggy for Manny trade did go through would it be:
Great for both teams (bad for the Jays)
Good for Boston but bad for Baltimore (no finances left to build a team around Manny)
Good for Baltimore but bad for Boston (what an infield but who's left in the OF after Damon leaves too?)
Creates too many problems for both teams (good for the Jays)
or
I don't care about Baltimore and Boston because I'm an optimistic moron (good for the Jays)
If the Miggy for Manny trade did go through would it be:
Great for both teams (bad for the Jays)
Good for Boston but bad for Baltimore (no finances left to build a team around Manny)
Good for Baltimore but bad for Boston (what an infield but who's left in the OF after Damon leaves too?)
Creates too many problems for both teams (good for the Jays)
or
I don't care about Baltimore and Boston because I'm an optimistic moron (good for the Jays)
Well I may be a moron, but I'm certainly not optimistic.
I think it would be terrific for Boston and terrible for Baltimore. Boston would get a player who is just as valuable as Manny, but who costs less, is younger, and is supposedly less of a headcase.**
Assuming that Baltimore replaced Tejada with a replacement level SS, and Boston replaced Manny with a replacement level LF, the difference between having Tejada+bad LF, and Manny+bad SS is nothing, according to VORP:
(2005)
Miguel Tejada: 70.0
Manny Ramirez 68.6
And that doesn't even include defense! When you include Tejada's terrific defense at SS, and Manny's atrocious defense in LF, it becomes obvious who the better player is. Then, when you consider salary, it just gets ridiculous. Tejada will make 7M less than Manny in 2006.
Baltimore would be spending a hell of a lot more money without improving the team.
It would be bad for the Jays though because now Boston has the best SS in the league and a significant amount of money to play with to improve their outfield. Imagine if Brian Giles was still on the market!
Of course, this trade will never happen and I doubt that Tejada actually gets moved.
**I'm not really sure that Manny is actually much of a "headcase". I don't believe anything that comes from the ridiculous Boston media, really. Hence, "supposedly."
I think it would be terrific for Boston and terrible for Baltimore. Boston would get a player who is just as valuable as Manny, but who costs less, is younger, and is supposedly less of a headcase.**
Assuming that Baltimore replaced Tejada with a replacement level SS, and Boston replaced Manny with a replacement level LF, the difference between having Tejada+bad LF, and Manny+bad SS is nothing, according to VORP:
(2005)
Miguel Tejada: 70.0
Manny Ramirez 68.6
And that doesn't even include defense! When you include Tejada's terrific defense at SS, and Manny's atrocious defense in LF, it becomes obvious who the better player is. Then, when you consider salary, it just gets ridiculous. Tejada will make 7M less than Manny in 2006.
Baltimore would be spending a hell of a lot more money without improving the team.
It would be bad for the Jays though because now Boston has the best SS in the league and a significant amount of money to play with to improve their outfield. Imagine if Brian Giles was still on the market!
Of course, this trade will never happen and I doubt that Tejada actually gets moved.
**I'm not really sure that Manny is actually much of a "headcase". I don't believe anything that comes from the ridiculous Boston media, really. Hence, "supposedly."
I take it this means blah blah blah blah offer blah blah blah blah blah thread blah blah blah VORP blah blah blah splits blah Jeff Blair blah blah blah 0.00321245% Value Over Minature Sea Creatures That May Or May Not Resemble Tony Danza (VOMSCTMOMNRTD)...
On the general consensus forming around turning the Jays into a hated team - it'd certainly do wonders for when the Yankee or Sox fans come to the Dome and we loyal 500 level supporters move into seeing how close to insanity we can drive them.
On the general consensus forming around turning the Jays into a hated team - it'd certainly do wonders for when the Yankee or Sox fans come to the Dome and we loyal 500 level supporters move into seeing how close to insanity we can drive them.
it'd certainly do wonders for when the Yankee or Sox fans come to the Dome and we loyal 500 level supporters move into seeing how close to insanity we can drive them.
Yes, we really need to do the burlap sacks with dollar signs on them this year.
Yes, we really need to do the burlap sacks with dollar signs on them this year.
Peter Angelos is complaining about the Jays spending too much on free agents? The universe has changed!
Complaining that the Jays have spent too much money on players with minimal track records misses the point: they are paying for what they expect Ryan and Burnett will do, not what they have done.
I don't know whether the $100 Million Bet (as it has been called) will work out. It might not. And I don't know whether J.P. has used Rogers' money as effectively as he could have - much of what general managers do happens in secret, so I don't know what his options were. But I'm strongly in favour of the Jays trying every available means to win - and J.P. is doing that. If it doesn't work out, and the Jays sink back to their usual third place - well, at least he tried his best to win. As a fan, that's all I ask for. I'm looking forward to the season.
Complaining that the Jays have spent too much money on players with minimal track records misses the point: they are paying for what they expect Ryan and Burnett will do, not what they have done.
I don't know whether the $100 Million Bet (as it has been called) will work out. It might not. And I don't know whether J.P. has used Rogers' money as effectively as he could have - much of what general managers do happens in secret, so I don't know what his options were. But I'm strongly in favour of the Jays trying every available means to win - and J.P. is doing that. If it doesn't work out, and the Jays sink back to their usual third place - well, at least he tried his best to win. As a fan, that's all I ask for. I'm looking forward to the season.
OT: If any of you are willing to sell or know of where I can buy the Cat and Dog Mcfarlane figures that were given out last year, please let me know. I have Hinske, Delgado, Halladay, and Clemens and just need these two to round out my collection. No worries if they are out of the package as I'm not that "serious" of a collector. I've been trying Ebay for the past month, but none have been put up. Thanks for your help.
cchernenkoff@hotmail.com
cchernenkoff@hotmail.com
Yes, we really need to do the burlap sacks with dollar signs on them this year.
*giant cockroach from family guy* Goooooood... gooooood...
Though the trusty anti-Jeter chanting has never failed us.
*giant cockroach from family guy* Goooooood... gooooood...
Though the trusty anti-Jeter chanting has never failed us.
From OnMilwaukee.com:
The Brewers baseball operations team is not made up of idiots. Melvin and Yost know what they're doing. On the surface, Dave Bush looks like a pitcher who couldn't keep the ball in the yard, losing 11 games for the Blue Jays. But consider that Melvin picked up a few other guys that struggled mightily before coming to Milwaukee.They have an option for "talkback", so I dropped them a line about how the Jays' offense let down Dave Bush on a few too many occassions in '04, and that his dilemma precisely illustrated why the Jays needed to make a trade for a strong hitter.
Useless Ty, that anti-Jeter chanting (which I quite enjoyed when we beat dem Yanks to avoid the sweep last September) almost got me into a fist-fight with some poor loser of a Yankees fan last year.
;)
That having been said, ...
OOOOOVER-RAAAAATED! :)
and, how about, "Nice play, Gold Glove!"
(that one was particularly sweet as Jeter played short about as well as a spastic beagle that day)
Ahh, memories of next year. :)
;)
That having been said, ...
OOOOOVER-RAAAAATED! :)
and, how about, "Nice play, Gold Glove!"
(that one was particularly sweet as Jeter played short about as well as a spastic beagle that day)
Ahh, memories of next year. :)
I'd almost forgotten!
"Jeter struck out looking against Miguel Batista with a runner on second to end it, the eighth time this season he made the final out of a game with the potential tying run on base."
Ah, sweet, sweet justice! :D
"Jeter struck out looking against Miguel Batista with a runner on second to end it, the eighth time this season he made the final out of a game with the potential tying run on base."
Ah, sweet, sweet justice! :D
Since young Mr. Daniels is dragging his feet with many offers for Brad Wilkerson and other outfielders in Texas, J.P. could look back into trading pitching for Austin Kearns:
"By acquiring utilityman Tony Womack on Thursday, the Reds have given themselves flexibility to deal another regular position player (pick one: Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena or Ryan Freel) for a pitcher"
I don't know if this statement is just speculation from Marc Lancaster or actual Red's thinking.
Maybe the Reds make a trade (and it seems they already have getting rid of Casey), but it won't be becuase they acquired the great Tony Womack. He hit .249/.276/.280 this year!
I know alot of posters here are fed up with Daniels' unwillingness to make a deal with the Jays immediately for Wilkerson, but I was under the impression that said outfielder will not even take his physical until Monday. (Sorry, I tried to find the link but couldn't.)
Doesn't that mean that the Soriano/Wilkerson-Sledge trade is not yet official even though all of the parameters have been agreed upon? Just a technicality, I know, but if true it might explain why Daniels has been 'dragging his heels' with the Jays. If I'm wrong, of course, feel free to correct me.
Doesn't that mean that the Soriano/Wilkerson-Sledge trade is not yet official even though all of the parameters have been agreed upon? Just a technicality, I know, but if true it might explain why Daniels has been 'dragging his heels' with the Jays. If I'm wrong, of course, feel free to correct me.
Jon Daniels still has a lot of other options to sift through in his quest for pitching:
From 'Fact or Fiction,' posted on baseballanalysts.com:
"It's a fact that baseball is awash in money. Teams that understand the sport's new economics are putting this fresh cash to work. Teams that are living in the past are simply hoarding the proceeds from record attendance and new revenue streams. It's not fiction to think there will be errors of omission and commission along the way. As always, throwing money around in an undisciplined manner will prove to be wasteful down the road. But doing little or nothing could be as detrimental in its own way.
Now I'm not one to advocate building a ballclub through free agency. Far from it. I believe in organic growth. It's not only cheaper, but it's more of a sure thing. A team has more control over its destiny by investing in scouting, the draft, and the farm system than relying on expensive trades and high-priced free agents. It's much better to buy at wholesale and sell at retail than vice versa. However, I think there is a time and a place when an organization needs to step up and go get that missing piece of the puzzle.
With the foregoing in mind, I don't find what the Toronto Blue Jays did in signing B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett as objectionable as the purists. It wouldn't make any sense to sign one without the other. I mean, if you're going to go for it, then go for it. No use getting caught up a creek without a paddle (or an ace reliever).
As I pointed out ten days ago, Toronto was "one of five teams with winning records in five-plus run differentials and losing records in one-run games." Interestingly, the other four teams were the Cleveland Indians in the American League and the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Cardinals in the National League. I'll ask the same question I did before: "Does it make a little bit more sense why TOR, PHI, and the NYM are being so aggressive this winter?" Even the Indians have been active, signing Paul Byrd and, after just missing out on Trevor Hoffman, re-signing Bob Wickman.
The Cardinals? Well, what can I say? Brian Gunn, Redbird Nation writer/analyst and fan extraordinaire, agreed to share an email he sent to me immediately upon hearing that the Cardinals lost out on the Burnett sweepstakes:
'Looks like the Jays did indeed get him. Apparently Cards ownership just wouldn't go that extra mile. Damn. Damn. The Cards didn't get (Brian) Giles, they didn't get Burnett, they have no farm system to deal from, they have no farm system from which to find replacements, they didn't get in on the Marlins' fire sale, and they have holes at second, left, right, and in their bullpen. Looks like the end of an era to me...'
Given the soaring cost of relief pitchers and the price of entry for "middle of the road" starters, I believe the Blue Jays made out just fine with Burnett. In our Free Agent Preview, we called Burnett the "best starting pitcher among this year's free agent class" and predicted that he would sign for four years and $48 million. We were close. Look, if I'm J.P. Ricciardi (what is it with those initials in Toronto?), I would have no problem giving Burnett an extra $7M for that fifth year. Sure, I'd rather go 4/$44 than 5/$55 but that wasn't gonna get the job done. Just go ask the Cardinals for confirmation on that very fact."
"It's a fact that baseball is awash in money. Teams that understand the sport's new economics are putting this fresh cash to work. Teams that are living in the past are simply hoarding the proceeds from record attendance and new revenue streams. It's not fiction to think there will be errors of omission and commission along the way. As always, throwing money around in an undisciplined manner will prove to be wasteful down the road. But doing little or nothing could be as detrimental in its own way.
Now I'm not one to advocate building a ballclub through free agency. Far from it. I believe in organic growth. It's not only cheaper, but it's more of a sure thing. A team has more control over its destiny by investing in scouting, the draft, and the farm system than relying on expensive trades and high-priced free agents. It's much better to buy at wholesale and sell at retail than vice versa. However, I think there is a time and a place when an organization needs to step up and go get that missing piece of the puzzle.
With the foregoing in mind, I don't find what the Toronto Blue Jays did in signing B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett as objectionable as the purists. It wouldn't make any sense to sign one without the other. I mean, if you're going to go for it, then go for it. No use getting caught up a creek without a paddle (or an ace reliever).
As I pointed out ten days ago, Toronto was "one of five teams with winning records in five-plus run differentials and losing records in one-run games." Interestingly, the other four teams were the Cleveland Indians in the American League and the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Cardinals in the National League. I'll ask the same question I did before: "Does it make a little bit more sense why TOR, PHI, and the NYM are being so aggressive this winter?" Even the Indians have been active, signing Paul Byrd and, after just missing out on Trevor Hoffman, re-signing Bob Wickman.
The Cardinals? Well, what can I say? Brian Gunn, Redbird Nation writer/analyst and fan extraordinaire, agreed to share an email he sent to me immediately upon hearing that the Cardinals lost out on the Burnett sweepstakes:
'Looks like the Jays did indeed get him. Apparently Cards ownership just wouldn't go that extra mile. Damn. Damn. The Cards didn't get (Brian) Giles, they didn't get Burnett, they have no farm system to deal from, they have no farm system from which to find replacements, they didn't get in on the Marlins' fire sale, and they have holes at second, left, right, and in their bullpen. Looks like the end of an era to me...'
Given the soaring cost of relief pitchers and the price of entry for "middle of the road" starters, I believe the Blue Jays made out just fine with Burnett. In our Free Agent Preview, we called Burnett the "best starting pitcher among this year's free agent class" and predicted that he would sign for four years and $48 million. We were close. Look, if I'm J.P. Ricciardi (what is it with those initials in Toronto?), I would have no problem giving Burnett an extra $7M for that fifth year. Sure, I'd rather go 4/$44 than 5/$55 but that wasn't gonna get the job done. Just go ask the Cardinals for confirmation on that very fact."
Greenfrog...right on!
By the way, are you related to Kermit?
By the way, are you related to Kermit?
Does anybody bring up that the Blue Jays are actually spending money on what they believe these free agents will do, rather than paying them for what they've done in the past?
BJ Ryan has only closed for one year. That means he's a good bet to have 5 strong years ahead.
As well, Burnett could be a star in Toronto as all the conditions are there for him to succeed.
Angelos is the kind of guy to throw $20MM at all the Will Clarks of the world never understanding the principle of age and diminishing returns.
BJ Ryan has only closed for one year. That means he's a good bet to have 5 strong years ahead.
As well, Burnett could be a star in Toronto as all the conditions are there for him to succeed.
Angelos is the kind of guy to throw $20MM at all the Will Clarks of the world never understanding the principle of age and diminishing returns.
By acquiring utilityman Tony Womack on Thursday, the Reds have given themselves flexibility to deal another regular position player (pick one: Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena or Ryan Freel) for a pitcher
Look up non sequitur in the dictionary. You'll find the passage above.
But Chuck, Tony Clark was good enough to play centre field for the New York Yankees!
Yikes...I think I missed that game...Tony Clark is a good filder and athletic but I didn't know he could play Center Field.
Heh, somehow I meant to type Tony Womack and typed Tony Clark.
Possibly even more frightening, Tony Womack was good enough to DH for the Yankees 11 times last year. They should have just let the pitcher bat.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5154472
The folks at Fox Sports break down the recent transactions that took place at the winter meetings, and their take is that the Brewers won the Overbay trade. As far as I can see, their logic is flawed:
"In Bush, the Brewers get one of the 20 best pitching prospects in the game, and in Jackson, they get a young hurler with good control and strong groundball tendencies. Gross provides Milwaukee with a left-handed bat which can handle right-handers coming off the bench and man either of the outfield corners."
Who knew that Bush was so highly touted by so-called experts and not just faithful Bauxites? This must mean that McGowan and Purcey, heck even Romero, are among the top 5-15 best pitching prospects in the game! The future is indeed bright - gotta go hunt down my sunglasses...
The folks at Fox Sports break down the recent transactions that took place at the winter meetings, and their take is that the Brewers won the Overbay trade. As far as I can see, their logic is flawed:
"In Bush, the Brewers get one of the 20 best pitching prospects in the game, and in Jackson, they get a young hurler with good control and strong groundball tendencies. Gross provides Milwaukee with a left-handed bat which can handle right-handers coming off the bench and man either of the outfield corners."
Who knew that Bush was so highly touted by so-called experts and not just faithful Bauxites? This must mean that McGowan and Purcey, heck even Romero, are among the top 5-15 best pitching prospects in the game! The future is indeed bright - gotta go hunt down my sunglasses...
Possibly even more frightening, Tony Womack was good enough to DH for the Yankees 11 times last year.
I'm wondering if any (or all) of those are cases of him coming into a game as a pinch-runner for the DH.
The folks at Fox Sports break down the recent transactions that took place at the winter meetings, and their take is that the Brewers won the Overbay trade.
That analysis was done by Dayn Perry, easily the top analyst at Fox, ESPN, CNNSI, etc. I agree that the Brewers "won" the trade, but it was a rare case of both teams getting better. The Brewers just improved by more. That doesn't mean the Jays shouldn't have made the trade, however.
I know what you mean. In its analysis of the trade, BA writes that the Jays are "clearly in win-now mode"; however, they fail to mention that Overbay is in his prime, still relatively cheap, won't become a free agent for three years, and that Bush, Jackson and Gross didn't really figure to be a big part of the Jays' long-term plans.
Signing Piazza, Hoffman, or Sanders would be a win-now move. For me, trading for Overbay is at least a medium-term move. It also gives the Jays' positional prospects (of which we have admittedly few) like Lind time to develop.
Signing Piazza, Hoffman, or Sanders would be a win-now move. For me, trading for Overbay is at least a medium-term move. It also gives the Jays' positional prospects (of which we have admittedly few) like Lind time to develop.
I'm wondering if any (or all) of those are cases of him coming into a game as a pinch-runner for the DH.
Well, I was bored enough to actually look that up. First I went into ESPN's gamelogs to find the answer, but that wasn't much fun. Then I realized that ESPN's splits would be faster, and they claim that Womack got 3 ABs as a DH, and he also hit a sacrifice fly. In September and August, Womack was the "DH" 6 times, and only ever came to the plate once, and that was the sac fly.
Keith Talent, you're right on. It's something Jays' critics fail to understand. So often, free agency is about paying for what has gone before and ends in bitter disappointment. Look at the 3 (and only 3) free agents JP targeted this year. Only 1 was in his mid-30's and he's a great hitter who walked 119 times, while only striking out 64 times; hardly a sign of imminent decline. The other 2 are stud pitchers who appear on their way up.
Most teams approach to free agency is pretty haphazard: cast as wide a net as possible and hope that what you catch will be a good fit for your club. That's how the Cincinnati Reds end up with Eric Milton, who's a completely lousy fit for that ballpark. JP knew what he wanted, sharpened his claws and went after it. It's better to target fewer free agents and go hard at them, than to target everyone. That way the ones you go after really feel wanted and you get what you want, even if you don't get everything you want. Great approach JP, keep it up.
Most teams approach to free agency is pretty haphazard: cast as wide a net as possible and hope that what you catch will be a good fit for your club. That's how the Cincinnati Reds end up with Eric Milton, who's a completely lousy fit for that ballpark. JP knew what he wanted, sharpened his claws and went after it. It's better to target fewer free agents and go hard at them, than to target everyone. That way the ones you go after really feel wanted and you get what you want, even if you don't get everything you want. Great approach JP, keep it up.
<i>That analysis was done by Dayne Perry, easily the top analyst at Fox, ESPN, CNNSI, etc.</i>
Are you nuts? Dayne Perry is the worst analyst I read on the net all winter meetings. I'm not sure if he is actually that stupid or if he just likes playing Devil's Advocate every column!
He is the Richard Griffin of online American baseball media.
Are you nuts? Dayne Perry is the worst analyst I read on the net all winter meetings. I'm not sure if he is actually that stupid or if he just likes playing Devil's Advocate every column!
He is the Richard Griffin of online American baseball media.
He is the Richard Griffin of online American baseball media.
Whoa, let's not say things we can't take back. I don't know who this Dayne Perry is but I'm sure he doesn't deserve that.
Mil also had no place for Overbay with Fielder coming up.
Can you say Jackson wasn't in their plans and still say ANY minor league pitcher is in their plans??? TINS etc aside, Jackson could have turned out to be the best out of the minor league group the Jays have now. Not saying he would have, but...
Can you say Jackson wasn't in their plans and still say ANY minor league pitcher is in their plans??? TINS etc aside, Jackson could have turned out to be the best out of the minor league group the Jays have now. Not saying he would have, but...
Like Bush, Jackson just doesn't seem to have the stuff to become a frontline starter (based on scouting reports and his peripheral numbers so far). That's not to say he couldn't have become a useful part of the Jays' rotation--a la Chacin--but it seems like McGowan, Romero, Purcey (and maybe Banks, Janssen, Rosario, and League) have higher ceilings. BA noted that Romero combines the stuff of Purcey with the command of Jackson.
If we hadn't signed AJ, then Jackson might have played a more significant role with the organization.
I think it's a good trade for Milwaukee, though. Both Bush and Jackson could become decent #4 or 5 starters. Gross could still turn into a useful regular or fourth OF.
If we hadn't signed AJ, then Jackson might have played a more significant role with the organization.
I think it's a good trade for Milwaukee, though. Both Bush and Jackson could become decent #4 or 5 starters. Gross could still turn into a useful regular or fourth OF.
BA noted that Romero combines the stuff of Purcey with the command of Jackson.
Greenfrog, do you have a link to that article? I want to check it out myself. I always thought that Purcey has the best stuff out of the three of them but I guess I am wrong.
Greenfrog, do you have a link to that article? I want to check it out myself. I always thought that Purcey has the best stuff out of the three of them but I guess I am wrong.
I have to disagree about Dayn Perry. I really like him, possibly because he is usually favorable regarding his analysis of the Jays. In his analysis of the Overbay trade he may have overstated Bush's potential (top 20 SP prospects in game), but during the course of the season he was consistently placing the Jays fairly in his power rankings and keeping in mind the loss of Halladay.
I disagree with the criticism of Dayn Perry as well. While I don't think that he is the best analyst on the big sports sites (I'm still partial to Rob Neyer, myself), I do think that he is a very close second. While I don't always agree with his analysis, I do admire the fact that he almost always tries to back up his points with statistical evidence. Most other so-called "analysts" simply spout opinion as fact (Mr. Griffin being a major culprit in that regard, but not nearly the sole culprit).
All that being said, Perry's winter meetings wrap-up was not his best work. It seemed very rushed, lacking the depth of analysis that I have come to expect from him. However, to lump him in with the likes of Griffin (or Buster Olney, or Steve Phillips, etc.) on the basis of one article is a huge leap, and a very bad decision.
All that being said, Perry's winter meetings wrap-up was not his best work. It seemed very rushed, lacking the depth of analysis that I have come to expect from him. However, to lump him in with the likes of Griffin (or Buster Olney, or Steve Phillips, etc.) on the basis of one article is a huge leap, and a very bad decision.
slithering slider, on November 4/05, BA posted its "Draft Report Card" for the Jays (insider only). Here is the part about Romero:
"Closest To The Majors: Romero, the top lefty in the draft and the first pitcher selected. He blends the stuff of David Purcey and the command of Zach Jackson, Toronto's first two picks in the 2004 draft. Romero spent most of the summer in high Class A and held his own, going 1-0, 3.82 in eight starts."
"Closest To The Majors: Romero, the top lefty in the draft and the first pitcher selected. He blends the stuff of David Purcey and the command of Zach Jackson, Toronto's first two picks in the 2004 draft. Romero spent most of the summer in high Class A and held his own, going 1-0, 3.82 in eight starts."
Another guy who likes Dayn Perry. He does the power ranknings for FoxSports.com and consistently recognized how good the jays were as a team last year despite their record. He much of the season would have them ranked a good 5 or 6 higher than the rankings at Espn or SI.
Rotoworld (source: St. Louis Post-Dispatch) is reporting that "Pending some final details, Matt Morris and the Giants have agreed to a three-year contract worth between $24 million and $27 million."
Considering the going rate for starters, this seems like a good deal for the Giants.
Considering the going rate for starters, this seems like a good deal for the Giants.
Boston 'talking' about talking to the Rocket - SportsNet.
Not good. Not good at all.
Not good. Not good at all.
Well, there's talking and then talking about talking. And then there's the whole issue of Rocket not being very happy with the Sox organization (evidently going to Toronto to exact "revenge" on the Sox). Then there's his persistent hamstring injuries. Not saying the Sox picking him up wouldn't hurt, it unmistakeably would, but I wouldn't count on it anytime soon. When they make an offer to him, then I will quiver in my pants. lol
"And then there's the whole issue of Rocket not being very happy with the Sox organization"
Except that was a different front office and ownership back then.
Regardless, I'd be surprised if anything happened with either Boston or NY with Clemens.
Except that was a different front office and ownership back then.
Regardless, I'd be surprised if anything happened with either Boston or NY with Clemens.
Miguel Tejada has backed off on his trade demands...""I never said I wanted to be traded," Tejada told SportsNet. "I said I want to see a better team"
That Morris deal is a horrible deal. Anyone who has a problem with Ryan or Burnett should be up in arms over this deal. Might as well have just set the money on fire.
I think that Josh Towers signing is starting to look like the best thing that has happened this offseason. LOL
Here's Matt Morris' career record courtesy of BP. Check out the yearly translated ERA from age 25-30. I wonder what the next number in the sequence after 4.98 is. Loaiza is a far better risk.
I would have had problems with Morris at $5 mil or $6 mil. At $9 mil there is just no way.
Some are going to say that it's the Jays fault for setting the market that high. The difference is the Jays would never have paid that much for Morris if they missed out on Burnett. And no-one really forced the Giants to go that high; they could have let him go to another team for slightly less.
Some are going to say that it's the Jays fault for setting the market that high. The difference is the Jays would never have paid that much for Morris if they missed out on Burnett. And no-one really forced the Giants to go that high; they could have let him go to another team for slightly less.
I think that Josh Towers signing is starting to look like the best thing that has happened this offseason. LOL
Geez, tell me about it. If Matt Morris is worth $8-9 million a year on the open market, Josh has to be worth 2/3 of that.
“Some are going to say that it's the Jays fault for setting the market that high”
I never believe this line, at least in terms of free agents (arbitration players are a little different). And I likely said the same thing after Benson last year. Just because one team pays a player a certain amount does not mean that another team has to pay a similar player a comparable amount. That Matt Morris gets $8-9 million/year and Kenny Rogers gets $8 million/year is not because AJ Burnett got $11 million/year. It’s because those teams have a need, there’s a finite supply of players they want, and they’re willing to allocate a certain amount for that. Teams, for the most part, have a budget and are going to use that up one way or another. It’s just simple supply and demand and there’s a lot of demand for starting pitching right now. If there were 20 free agent pitchers and only 10 interested teams the salaries would be a lot lower but there are more teams looking for good pitching than there are good pitchers.
Think about it like a fantasy baseball auction. If someone has a winning bid of $30 on Danys Baez does that mean that I have to pay $30 for Todd Jones because he’s a comparable player? Of course not. I bid what I think he’s worth.
Frankly, if teams think that other teams are overpaying for free agents they should be *happy* about it.
What they’re really unhappy about is that less money is going to the owner’s pockets.
I never believe this line, at least in terms of free agents (arbitration players are a little different). And I likely said the same thing after Benson last year. Just because one team pays a player a certain amount does not mean that another team has to pay a similar player a comparable amount. That Matt Morris gets $8-9 million/year and Kenny Rogers gets $8 million/year is not because AJ Burnett got $11 million/year. It’s because those teams have a need, there’s a finite supply of players they want, and they’re willing to allocate a certain amount for that. Teams, for the most part, have a budget and are going to use that up one way or another. It’s just simple supply and demand and there’s a lot of demand for starting pitching right now. If there were 20 free agent pitchers and only 10 interested teams the salaries would be a lot lower but there are more teams looking for good pitching than there are good pitchers.
Think about it like a fantasy baseball auction. If someone has a winning bid of $30 on Danys Baez does that mean that I have to pay $30 for Todd Jones because he’s a comparable player? Of course not. I bid what I think he’s worth.
Frankly, if teams think that other teams are overpaying for free agents they should be *happy* about it.
What they’re really unhappy about is that less money is going to the owner’s pockets.
Agree.
Kenny Rogers (2 years, 8MM per) and Morris (3 years, 9 MM per) are showing that prices _have_ gone up. And don't blame the Jays for this. If they hadn't given AJ 11 MM per season, someone else would have (Cardinals). Millwood is probably going to get a similar contract to AJ, and I think AJ is preferable (younger, better stuff).
The only sad part in all of this is that it looks like the trade value of David Bush was undervalued. If Morris is worth what he got, then any semi-competent pitcher who's not yet arbitration eligible is gold. If Bush turns out to be a league average starter next year, then the Brewers win the Overbay trade. That doesn't even factor in what Gross or ZJ might do.
Then again, the Jays had to make a choice about who to hang on to, and they picked Chacin. Hopefully they made the right choice!
Kenny Rogers (2 years, 8MM per) and Morris (3 years, 9 MM per) are showing that prices _have_ gone up. And don't blame the Jays for this. If they hadn't given AJ 11 MM per season, someone else would have (Cardinals). Millwood is probably going to get a similar contract to AJ, and I think AJ is preferable (younger, better stuff).
The only sad part in all of this is that it looks like the trade value of David Bush was undervalued. If Morris is worth what he got, then any semi-competent pitcher who's not yet arbitration eligible is gold. If Bush turns out to be a league average starter next year, then the Brewers win the Overbay trade. That doesn't even factor in what Gross or ZJ might do.
Then again, the Jays had to make a choice about who to hang on to, and they picked Chacin. Hopefully they made the right choice!
The Blue Jays apparently pulled out of the Morris sweepstakes after they noticed his velocity was down in the second half of the season.
With Burnett they certainly did a lot of due diligence, Ricciardi stated they had a scout at every one of his starts this year. Impressive.
With Burnett they certainly did a lot of due diligence, Ricciardi stated they had a scout at every one of his starts this year. Impressive.
If Bush turns out to be a league average starter next year, then the Brewers win the Overbay trade.
I think it's extremely likely that the Brewers win the Overbay trade, because Prince Fielder needs to play in the bigs. I think it's likely that the Jays win the trade, because Overbay is significantly better than Hillenbrand and Hinske.
Oh, you want to look at it as a winner and a loser? If we're talking bang-for-buck, the only way I can see the Jays coming out ahead is if they win the World Series in the next 3 years with Overbay contributing positively. If we're talking straight up bang, I'd expect the Brewers to win but it's by no means guaranteed.
I've never understood why anyone really cares who "wins" a trade. All that really matters is whether or not the trade makes a team better... if the other team improves itself more (or hurts itself less), it does not make the trade any better, in any real sense.
The two other factors that could come into play are (1) if the trade is with a direct rival and is improving them more, and (2) if there was another trade that could have been made instead that would've improved the team more. Since we can pretty much never verify (2), I think in most cases we should just stick to the simple evaluation.
For Milwaukee, this is like the Bill Caudill trade. Fielder could easily out-perform Overbay as soon as 2006, just as Fernandez and Barfield were better players than Griffin and Collins in 1985. Did Oakland get better value from the Caudill trade than Toronto? Sure, but it'd be hard to argue that the Jays weren't a better team because of the deal, so I consider it a good trade from Toronto's perspective.
(In the Griffin/Collins trade, one could suggest that the Jays could've gotten something better than Caudill for the players they traded, but it's hard to really "confirm" that...)
Given Toronto's situation, there was pretty much no way that Oakland could have "won" that trade, if you're only evaluating if they benefitted more than the Jays, no matter how well their new players worked out for them. Same thing with the Overbay trade. It wouldn't take much of a contribution from Bush(er?) & Jackson for it to make it a huge "win" for them....
The two other factors that could come into play are (1) if the trade is with a direct rival and is improving them more, and (2) if there was another trade that could have been made instead that would've improved the team more. Since we can pretty much never verify (2), I think in most cases we should just stick to the simple evaluation.
For Milwaukee, this is like the Bill Caudill trade. Fielder could easily out-perform Overbay as soon as 2006, just as Fernandez and Barfield were better players than Griffin and Collins in 1985. Did Oakland get better value from the Caudill trade than Toronto? Sure, but it'd be hard to argue that the Jays weren't a better team because of the deal, so I consider it a good trade from Toronto's perspective.
(In the Griffin/Collins trade, one could suggest that the Jays could've gotten something better than Caudill for the players they traded, but it's hard to really "confirm" that...)
Given Toronto's situation, there was pretty much no way that Oakland could have "won" that trade, if you're only evaluating if they benefitted more than the Jays, no matter how well their new players worked out for them. Same thing with the Overbay trade. It wouldn't take much of a contribution from Bush(er?) & Jackson for it to make it a huge "win" for them....
I've never understood why anyone really cares who "wins" a trade.
I'm guessing this stems from relatively few trades, in my humble and unsubstantiated opinion, being win-win. Most trades, my logic would have it, are win-lose, meaning that the loser of a trade actually has a weakened team.
In the case of the Milwaukee trade, I believe Milwaukee will improve more than Toronto will improve, but both teams will improve. Even if Ricciardi believed this to be the case, this should not have been a reason for him to not make the trade.
It's a complicated thing, just figuring out whether a team has in fact improved by virtue of a trade. It depends on the other talent that the team has on hand, and the realistic prospect to win a title in the year or years immediately following the trade.
The way I analyze this trade from the Jay perspective is that Overbay will likely add more value (as compared with the other first base options) than Bush would have (as compared with the least of the other starting pitching options) in 2006. However, the difference between the two is small. There is no comparison between the value of Overbay and the value of Bush in 2008-9 (let alone with the addition of Gross and Jackson), due to financial differences. Whether the likely present advantage is worth the likely future hit is what a GM must weigh. It's not an easy job.
The way I analyze this trade from the Jay perspective is that Overbay will likely add more value (as compared with the other first base options) than Bush would have (as compared with the least of the other starting pitching options) in 2006. However, the difference between the two is small. There is no comparison between the value of Overbay and the value of Bush in 2008-9 (let alone with the addition of Gross and Jackson), due to financial differences. Whether the likely present advantage is worth the likely future hit is what a GM must weigh. It's not an easy job.
The key to a trade, at least in the position the Jays are in now, is maximizing the value that goes onto the field. If the Jays have 95 wins worth of value in 27 players it doesn’t do them much good when they can only use 25 players at a time and those 25 are worth 85 wins. When you run into that case you have to consolidate your roster to get more wins on the field. So if you trade 3 players worth 10 wins for 1 player worth 6 you’re still improving because those three players aren’t giving you their full wins if you can’t play them up to their full value. (All of the ‘worth’ numbers in this paragraph are purely hypothetical to illustrate the point.)
As to who improves more it depends on the situation. Hypothetically if the Jays traded Bush, Gross and Jackson to the White Sox for Overbay how much are the White Sox improving with this trade? Not too much. But say Overbay was on the Marlins instead of the Brewers and they received Bush, Gross and Jackson for Overbay. Well, the Marlins would improve a lot more than the White Sox. In both cases it’s the exact same trade for the Jays but in one case they improve less than the other team and in another case they improve more.
On a present value basis of the players I suspect the Jays come out on the short end of the Overbay trade. But that doesn’t make it a bad trade from the Jays perspective – they improved the team that they’re going to be putting out on the field. What would make it a bad trade for the Jays is if there were better alternative offers out there. Which of course we’ll never know. And there aren’t even many good comparable trades to gauge it against either.
As to who improves more it depends on the situation. Hypothetically if the Jays traded Bush, Gross and Jackson to the White Sox for Overbay how much are the White Sox improving with this trade? Not too much. But say Overbay was on the Marlins instead of the Brewers and they received Bush, Gross and Jackson for Overbay. Well, the Marlins would improve a lot more than the White Sox. In both cases it’s the exact same trade for the Jays but in one case they improve less than the other team and in another case they improve more.
On a present value basis of the players I suspect the Jays come out on the short end of the Overbay trade. But that doesn’t make it a bad trade from the Jays perspective – they improved the team that they’re going to be putting out on the field. What would make it a bad trade for the Jays is if there were better alternative offers out there. Which of course we’ll never know. And there aren’t even many good comparable trades to gauge it against either.
That's a nifty way to analyze trades, Pistol. One I've never seen or considered before. Thanks.
As the Jays learned in the Quantrill and Lopez deals the value of a pitcher has to be discounted to reflect their much greater risk. While Overbay three years from now will very likey have some value there is a non-insignificant chance that Bush and/or Jackson will have no value at all due to ineffectiveness (eg. loss of velocity but no apparent injury) or to injury itself.
Excellent analysis, Pistol. And not only does the value of the trade vary based on substituting teams for the Brewers, but it would also vary based on substituting teams for the Jays.
For instance, if Texas traded Bush, Gross and Jackson to the Brewers for Overbay, it would weaken the Rangers considerably more in both the short term and medium term than the trade weakens the Jays. Texas would likely "lose" that trade, while the Jays may not.
For instance, if Texas traded Bush, Gross and Jackson to the Brewers for Overbay, it would weaken the Rangers considerably more in both the short term and medium term than the trade weakens the Jays. Texas would likely "lose" that trade, while the Jays may not.
As to who improves more it depends on the situation. Hypothetically if the Jays traded Bush, Gross and Jackson to the White Sox for Overbay how much are the White Sox improving with this trade? Not too much. But say Overbay was on the Marlins instead of the Brewers and they received Bush, Gross and Jackson for Overbay. Well, the Marlins would improve a lot more than the White Sox. In both cases it’s the exact same trade for the Jays but in one case they improve less than the other team and in another case they improve more.
But that's my point... why do we care how much the other team improves? Why does it matter at all? If anything, making deals that help your trading partner probably put you in a better position for future trades than trades that you "win".
I'm suggesting that worrying about whether your trading partner improves more than you is a bad, bad way of evaluating a trade. If a GM turns down a trade that would help his team, on the basis that he'd "lose" the trade, he's making an awful mistake.
Unfortunately, MatO, the discounting of the future value of a pitcher is a sore point for other reasons right now.
In the Overbay/Bush/Jackson/Gross case in 2009, Overbay will be a free agent while at least one of Bush/Jackson/Gross will probably have some value, and there is a good chance that one of them will have significant value. It's really a present for future trade from the Jay perspective and the touchy questions are how much present and how much future.
From the Milwaukee perspective, the only way they suffer is if Prince Fielder bombs and the return for Overbay doesn't perform as well as he does.
I guess the part of the deal I really I cannot figure out is the inclusion of Gross. It's not likely that it would have meant much to Milwaukee, but appears to have been necessary from the Toronto perspective because there were 41 players on the 40 man. I cannot figure out why Gross was seemingly less highly valued than others on the 40 man.
In the Overbay/Bush/Jackson/Gross case in 2009, Overbay will be a free agent while at least one of Bush/Jackson/Gross will probably have some value, and there is a good chance that one of them will have significant value. It's really a present for future trade from the Jay perspective and the touchy questions are how much present and how much future.
From the Milwaukee perspective, the only way they suffer is if Prince Fielder bombs and the return for Overbay doesn't perform as well as he does.
I guess the part of the deal I really I cannot figure out is the inclusion of Gross. It's not likely that it would have meant much to Milwaukee, but appears to have been necessary from the Toronto perspective because there were 41 players on the 40 man. I cannot figure out why Gross was seemingly less highly valued than others on the 40 man.
But that's my point... why do we care how much the other team improves? Why does it matter at all? If anything, making deals that help your trading partner probably put you in a better position for future trades than trades that you "win".
This is true.
If the Brewers end up getting good value out of this trade, they will be likley to want to make other deals down the road. Maybe even ones which tilt back in favour of the Jays, if circumstances dictate.
The Jays and A's engage in this sort of thing all the time. Adding another team to that circle of friends can never hurt.
However, there is such a think as being too generous. If you develop a reputation of being easy to rip off, then many GM's won't offer you anything of value.
I guess the part of the deal I really I cannot figure out is the inclusion of Gross. It's not likely that it would have meant much to Milwaukee, but appears to have been necessary from the Toronto perspective because there were 41 players on the 40 man. I cannot figure out why Gross was seemingly less highly valued than others on the 40 man.
Actually, from the articles I read about the trade, Gross was added at the insistence of the Brewers. The Jays original offer was Bush and ZJ. Maybe Ash has a soft spot for one of his old draft picks? He also correctly identified Gross as being completely buried in Toronto, and unlikely to play a major role there in 2006. And I haven't checked, but perhaps the Brewers had some extra room on their 40-man roster that the Jays lacked?
I cannot figure out why Gross was seemingly less highly valued than others on the 40 man.
I seem to recall having this conversation about Gross when Hillenbrand was acquired. I said at the time that I didn't necessarily agree with JP, but it was clear that JP was never high on Gross and didn't seem terribly inclined to give him a big league job. Mike, I can't remember if it was you or Dudek who insisted then that it made more sense to give Gross a job than it did to trade for Shea, but I figured rightly or wrongly, it was never going to happen.
I certainly did, and if I recall correctly, so did Robert.
Never mind Gross. There were those who thought Eric Crozier was reason enough not to acquire Hillenbrand.
Gabe got 250 big-league plate appearances and objectively hit very poorly, with his primary contribution to the club being his outfield arm. Subjectively, he did not appear to be a confident hitter with major league pitch recognition skills. I'll cheer for him in Milwaukee, but it was certainly defensible for JP to give Gabe the opportunities he did, but no more. I don't think Gabe was exactly railroaded out of town.
Gabe got 250 big-league plate appearances and objectively hit very poorly, with his primary contribution to the club being his outfield arm. Subjectively, he did not appear to be a confident hitter with major league pitch recognition skills. I'll cheer for him in Milwaukee, but it was certainly defensible for JP to give Gabe the opportunities he did, but no more. I don't think Gabe was exactly railroaded out of town.
Apparently Gross was necessary as a lefthanded bat who could occasionally start and come off the bench for Milwaukee.
I expect if he proves himself, Gross can easily grow into a more prominent role if he has more of a shot than sporadic at bats in Toronto followed by long stretches of riding the pine.
The Jays in their current position might have been better off letting Rios and Gross share RF in 2006 and using the money they're going to spend on that spot elsewhere. For instance, signing Garciaparra for third or DH, signing Thomas for DH, etc.
I expect if he proves himself, Gross can easily grow into a more prominent role if he has more of a shot than sporadic at bats in Toronto followed by long stretches of riding the pine.
The Jays in their current position might have been better off letting Rios and Gross share RF in 2006 and using the money they're going to spend on that spot elsewhere. For instance, signing Garciaparra for third or DH, signing Thomas for DH, etc.
Closest To The Majors: Romero, the top lefty in the draft and the first pitcher selected. He blends the stuff of David Purcey and the command of Zach Jackson, Toronto's first two picks in the 2004 draft. Romero spent most of the summer in high Class A and held his own, going 1-0, 3.82 in eight starts.
This seems consistent. Romero's stuff seems comparable to Purcey though the latter may be a better bet to maintain higher velocities longer into his career and deeper into games because his significant size advantage. Romero definately has the better command though. Baseball America describes them thusly:
Romero, age 21 (as of November), 6'2", 170 lbs. Some room to grow here. Fastball sits 90-91, touches 93-94. Excellent curveball, improving changeup. Good control. Very good makeup.
Purcey, age 23 (as of April), 6'5", 240 lbs. Excellent arm speed, heavy fastball 91-95 mph. Above average 12-6 curve. Potentially average changeup. Command frequently waivers.
If I had to put ceilings on this guys I would say Romero would end up as a smaller version of Barry Zito. Purcey strikes me as very Lilly like with his strikeout potential and similar potential to frustrate with high pitch counts and flaky command.
Never mind Gross. There were those who thought Eric Crozier was reason enough not to acquire Hillenbrand.
You're opening a can of worms. Wasn't too long ago that many in these parts opined that Josh Phelps was the second coming of Reggie Jackson.
reading this thread, i can't help but ask one question:
does non-insignificant mean the same thing as significant?
does non-insignificant mean the same thing as significant?
If I had to put ceilings on this guys I would say Romero would end up as a smaller version of Barry Zito. Purcey strikes me as very Lilly like with his strikeout potential and similar potential to frustrate with high pitch counts and flaky command.
I think you're selling Purcey a little short there comparing him to Lilly. I think he's going to hit the majors with a better fastball than Lilly brings. Lilly gets K's with his curve and change, and sneaks in the odd fastball. I see Purcey as someone who will be able to blow his fastball past hitters on a regular basis. There's aren't a lot of lefthanders who fit his profile -- he's like a slightly smaller version of Daniel Cabrera, only lefthanded.
I'm somewhat worried that Romero will flame out, or end up in relief. I keep hearing his delivery described as "maximum effort", which does not bode well for his long term durability. Then again, Roy Oswalt could be described that way, and he manages to pitch 200+ innings per season.
I have long since given up trying to project what pitchers are capable of based on body size. Pedro Martinez should have blown his arm out three times by the time he was 25 according to the Dodgers' best scouts. Tim Hudson is an inch shorter than Romero and listed at 165 lbs. He's thrown over 1400 big league innings by age of 30.
Size will definately have it's advantages, but as Mark Hendrickson shows that is limited if you don't actually have the stuff to back it up.
When I compare Purcey to Lilly, I mean in style. Romero has a great curve but also has a polished overall game and mature approach. Purcey is more reliant on raw stuff to get by. His top end fastball is better than Lilly's and his ceiling higher. But he'll probably have to sit low-90s much like Romero and Lilly just to have consistent command.
Size will definately have it's advantages, but as Mark Hendrickson shows that is limited if you don't actually have the stuff to back it up.
When I compare Purcey to Lilly, I mean in style. Romero has a great curve but also has a polished overall game and mature approach. Purcey is more reliant on raw stuff to get by. His top end fastball is better than Lilly's and his ceiling higher. But he'll probably have to sit low-90s much like Romero and Lilly just to have consistent command.
I think I was searching for 'not insignificant' rather than non-insignificant. In any case, what I wanted say is that a pitcher's chance of injury or loss of stuff is somewhere between significant and insignificant.
I've always been under the impression that Romero has smooth mechanics which is one of the things that attracted the Jays. Can you have smooth mechanics and maximum effort?
I've always been under the impression that Romero has smooth mechanics which is one of the things that attracted the Jays. Can you have smooth mechanics and maximum effort?
Smooth Mechanics and Maximum Effort sounds like a deadly combination...
I saw Romero work on his mechanics before an Auburn game last year, and I wasn't concerned by his delivery. His motion doesn't exactly look like Barry Zito's, but it's similarly rhythmic.
He really doesn't look like Roy Oswalt on the mound.
He really doesn't look like Roy Oswalt on the mound.
Can you have smooth mechanics and maximum effort?
Yes. Mark Prior is like Swiss clockwork on the mound but I would guess he dials it up to maximum possible effort sometimes (other than Nolan Ryan or some relievers, no one dials the max on every pitch).
The best example : Mariano Rivera has learned to dial down the effort level in recent years probably in order to gain more control over his release of the ball (which enables him to cut the ball more, so the ball is equally hard to hit). But when he was younger, he combined a picture-perfect delivery with blazing speed on every pitch - I'm guessing he was going all-out.
Maximal Effort and the A's Inability to Win:
Teams on a tight budgets simply don't possess as much latent baseball talent as teams on bigger budgets.
The ability to find the guy who can draw a few extra walks in mid July or squeeze league average performance out of Scott Hatteberg at first base may get you to the playoffs but unfortunately the more big talent (read big money) guys a team has the better their chances come playoff time.
That said, I do generally ascribe to the playoffs as a crapshoot theory but do feel overall talent level does play some role.
Teams on a tight budgets simply don't possess as much latent baseball talent as teams on bigger budgets.
The ability to find the guy who can draw a few extra walks in mid July or squeeze league average performance out of Scott Hatteberg at first base may get you to the playoffs but unfortunately the more big talent (read big money) guys a team has the better their chances come playoff time.
That said, I do generally ascribe to the playoffs as a crapshoot theory but do feel overall talent level does play some role.
Maximum effort and smooth mechanics brings to mind Tom Seaver for me.