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Bauxite gv27 reports that the Jays have completed a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers for Lyle Overbay and a PTBNL in exchange for David Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson.

The team will be holding a press conference any minute now.

Here are Overbay's stats the last three years and for his career:
SEASON 	TEAM 	AB 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS	OPS+
2003	Ari 	254	0.276	0.365	0.402	0.767	92
2004	Mil 	579	0.301	0.385	0.478	0.863	127
2005	Mil 	537	0.276	0.367	0.449	0.816	113
Total 	-- 	1382	0.285	0.373	0.450	0.823	114
Overbay comes with a strong defensive reputation which is supported by his defensive statistics. He'll turn 29 in January and is eligible for his first year of arbitration where he's likely to earn around $3 million in 2006.

The player to be named later from Milwaukee will be announced after the Rule 5 draft is held today. Bob Elliot reports that the player is minor-league righty Ty Taubenheim.

David Bush was JP Ricciardi's second draft pick in his initial draft. He moved through the minors quickly and had a strong second half in 2004 with the Jays. 2005 was a mixed season for Bush. He struggled initially, was sent down to Syracuse for a period and then called back up. After that he would mix great games with bad games.

Gabe Gross, 26, never seemed to be able to crack the Jays lineup. He posted strong seasons in Syracuse the past two years, but struggled when called up to the Jays (albeit in somewhat limited ABs).

Zach Jackson was the Jays second 1st round pick in 2004 out of Texas A&M. The pick was one of two obtained when Kelvim Escobar signed with the Angels two years ago. Jackson had a strong first full pro season in the minors working his way from Class A Dunedin to AAA Syracuse. The Box's minor league crew rated Jackson the team's #4 prospect at the end of this season.

Jays Acquire Lyle Overbay From Brewers for Bush, Gross, Jackson | 371 comments | Create New Account
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Rickster - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:44 AM EST (#135264) #
Don't know if I like this deal, but I trust JP. I guess this is why he's been drafting pitchers.
This is what we've been waiting for, and man is it fun. So much better than hoping to get Todd Worrell.
In the spirit of this off-season, I suggest that Lyle change his first name to L.S. (middle name is Stefan).

R.I.Ckster
Ron - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:45 AM EST (#135266) #
Jeff Blair has confirmed the trade
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/?query=jeff+blair

- Jays are prepare to eat some of Hinske's contract to trade him
- Will try to get Wilkerson from the Rangers
- Rios and Batista are/will be shopped around
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:45 AM EST (#135267) #
From the general thread:
I just think I'm missing someting with Overbay, I'm not being sarcastic, I just don't understand why he's worth 3 decent prospects. Could someone explain it to me. It only took Peterson to get Shea, even tho Arizona seemed to be in a hurry to get rid of him.
Hillenbrand was a salary dump. Overbay cannot be because he is paid much, much less. And because he has good production for not much money, he's worth even more. The two trades are just not comparable.

Just like questions about how much money a free agent gets paid, I think that you have to analyze these things in a bit of a vacuum. Will Bush, Gross or Jackson contribute anything to the team this year? Will Overbay contribute more than the three of them? And was there any other team out there that would offer a better player who's also paid very little for the same package or less? I think the answer to the last one is obvious: if there was a better return, the team would have taken it.
Rickster - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:48 AM EST (#135270) #
And now we wait for the other shoe to drop: three positions for Hill, Hillenbrand, Hinske, Koskie, and Overbay.
Who is gone next? And for whom?
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:49 AM EST (#135271) #
I like this deal.

As it stands right now we have the following starting Pitchers who will be on our roster:

Halladay, Burnett, Lilly, Chacin, Towers, Batista, Downs.

Although Dave has some decent potential, he wasn't going to be starting this season. Coming out of the Pen wasn't going to make use of his talents, he was inconsistant.

Terran - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:51 AM EST (#135274) #
From the other topic:

If opening day was today, think our lineup would look like this:

1) Adams
2) Overbay
3) Wells
4) Koskie
5) Hillenbrand
6) Cat/John
7) Zuan
8) Hudson
9) Rios
Rickster - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:51 AM EST (#135275) #
For a Milwaukee viewpoint, check out Al's Ramblings:
http://albethke.blogspot.com/

Still need a nickname - How about O'Bay (to go along with AJ and BJ)?
jsoh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:52 AM EST (#135277) #
Gut reaction: Bush *and* ZachJack?

Dont like it.
Dylan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:56 AM EST (#135279) #
Makes sense, although Overbay is up for arbitration. But half a million is a pretty good price for that kind of production. I guess if you consider that Wilkerson was traded for Soriano (basically) and Texas has been asking for an arm and a leg for Mench it does seem like a more fair deal. Just a little shocked to see two former first rounders and a second go for a solid first baseman.
garvin4ever - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:56 AM EST (#135280) #
This is a good deal. Overbay will be a solid contributer to the cause; even now, visions of him scorching frozen ropes into the alleys of Rogers Centre are dancing in my mind. He can also sling the leather, so if they hold onto O-Dog, the right side of the infield will be air-tight. The guys we gave up: Bush labored last year with his ordinary stuff, Gross was going nowhere in a crowded outfield, and Jackson's stuff got hammered as he moved up the minor-league ladder. If we had had to cough up Purcey, that would've been a bit more disconcerting.

Now...how to move the Hillenbrands and Hinskes of the world...
King Ryan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:57 AM EST (#135281) #
Trading away a fine 25 year old pitcher and a great prospect should get you more than Lyle Overbay.

If it can't, then you should keep them. That's my opinion. I just cannot make sense of this trade. I've given my opinion at length in other threads, but it seems like JP is too desperate to rid himself of this "surplus."
#2JBrumfield - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:57 AM EST (#135282) #
I'm surprised they gave up on Zach Jackson so quickly especially when you heard the team was waffling between taking David Purcey and Zach Jack in the first round of 2004. Maybe the team didn't like what they saw of him in Syracuse (4-4, 5.13ERA, 47.1 IP, 61H & 33/21 K/BB ratio) and figured he was expendable.

I'm sad to see Bush go, and to a lesser extent, Gross and I hope they do well in Wisconsin. There was no more room for them anymore given all the off-season happenings.

Overbay's a solid player but was he worth this much? If they get the 2004 version with the 50 doubles, then this is a hell of a move. Obviously, something else has got to happen to clear up the logjam at the corner infield spots so the question is, what's next?
Mark - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:57 AM EST (#135283) #
I really don't like this. We already have a surplus at 1B. Why add another? And you give up three players who all have the potential to be the best player in the trade.( I am probably higher on Gross than anyone on this site so you don't have to argue him, I know stats say Overbay is better than Gross, it's just my opinion that he'll meet that potential) Any way, I just thought Zach Jack and Bush could get you more.
Anders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:58 AM EST (#135285) #
Something else is clearly percolating. Replacing Hillenbrand with Zach Jack and Gross just means Hillenbrand is going to be traded in addition. The Twins are coming up in a couple of online reports, and the Rangers who know posses Wilkerson.

Hinske, Hillenbrand, Batista, Rios - 2 or more are going to go.
Ryan C - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:58 AM EST (#135286) #
Wow. Seems like alot to give up at first glance. Then again, Overbay's numbers from last year would have made him the best hitter on the Jays. I certainly feel he can counted on for 20hr this year barring injury. I dont know, a little mixed feelings about this deal but for now Im willing to wait and see what else JP has in the works.

Another deal is almost a certainty now with Overbay, Koskie, Hillenbrand and Hinske on the roster. My gut feeling is Koskie stays and Hillebrand is gone, possibly Hinske as well.
Wildrose - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:59 AM EST (#135287) #
It would be rash to comment on this deal until the PTNL is announced .The player may come over after tommorrow's rule 5 draft, which the Jays may have now room to indulge in.
NYJaysFan36 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:59 AM EST (#135288) #
Personally I would have been happier with it if it was Purcey.
The first thing I saw was Lyle Overbay headed to Blue Jays and I think, "okay good."
Then I get home and see Bush and Gross and I'm still happy. Then I see Jackson... :(
Not everybody can smile at the hitter as he's getting them out. :)
golouis - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:02 AM EST (#135290) #
The Jays pitching depth is so great right now that we needed to trade 2 starters, move Downs to the pen, and send down Marcum and McGowan and that's not counting Pete Walker. So trading Bush doesn't hurt our rotation that much.

The Jays also have a lot of young arms who will be able to produce in a few years. As impressive as Jackson was moving through the minors this year he doesn't seem like he will be better then any of Halladay, A.J., Chacin, Towers or Lilly over the next 3 or so years when we plan to contend. pitchers like Dustin can be better then them and as soon as next year. Giving up Gross barley hurts us at all, except for in Spring training.

With Overbay we have a first baseman who can hit better then Shea or Hinskie and if we can trade Shea for an outfielder over the next few days our lineup will probably be good enough to let our pitching bring us into the playoff hunt.
BCMike - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:02 AM EST (#135291) #
I think I like this deal depending on what we get for one/two of our infielders. The right side of the infield should look pretty good and Overbay will be nice as long as he isn't the centrepiece of the offense.
Wildrose - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:04 AM EST (#135292) #
Re-read the Blair entry, he states the PTBL will be announced tommorow A.M.

Glad we're still in the Wilkerson hunt.
Parker - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:04 AM EST (#135293) #
I like it. The addition of Overbay should give the Jays easily the best infield defence in the majors, which will make Doc and AJ look even better than they are. Losing Jackson hurts a little, but you have to give to get. Gross and Bush I can live with; while both will probably still develop I doubt either one is going to become a consistent major league average player at his position.

I'd like to see Koskie and Hinske moved at this point. I think Hillenbrand will stay; JP has been quoted as saying he really likes Shea. Praise for Hillenbrand coming from a GM who traditionally values OBP so highly must mean something, right?
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:05 AM EST (#135295) #
Like I said on the other thread...Zack and Bush and Marcum are all Towers (give or take a bit) OK but not great.

I say keep Hilly and Overbay ditch Hinske even it means sending cash with him. We are about a 10% better offense today than we were yesterday.

Who knows what later today will bring.

I am one happy puppy so far.
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:05 AM EST (#135296) #
If we get the 2004 version:

.301/.385/.478 (50 doubles!!)

Is it worth it Ryan?
VBF - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:05 AM EST (#135297) #
This isn't over. JP doesn't let himself get fleeced by Gord Ash. There's more coming up.

Also, Happy Birthdays to Sparky and Vernon!
Thomas - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:05 AM EST (#135298) #
It’s premature to comment on this without seeing who the PTBNL is and also how JP will deal with the surplus of corner infielders.

However, to comment on the deal as it stands right now, it’s too much to pay for Overbay. Jackson is the clincher; Bush and Gross would have been doable, but Jackson’s inclusion means that we better get something considerable back from Milwaukee, or else I will join the camp of those not satisfied by the trade.

I trust JP in that he has a plan to make further transactions. This move doesn’t change it. We don’t really know what his further plans are, nor do we know who the PTBNL is. So, I think it’s only fair to reserve final judgement until then.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:05 AM EST (#135299) #
you know what, I'm not so sure JP doesn't want to keep Hillenbrand after all. We've been doing comparisons between Lyle and him, but I wouldn't be surprised if JP would like to have both hitters in the lineup. Instead it might be Hinske and/or Koskie who he will try to deal to a team looking for a 3B like the Twins or Dodgers. I voted 'Glad to have Lyle but TO gave up too much' on this one, I do believe Lyle is entering his prime and I'm indifferent on Gross and Bush had to be given up I guess, but giving up on Zach who was ranked as a high prospect seems to tip the scales in Ash's favour. This 'could' be a good trade for us, but I think it is a very good trade for them. I grade it about a C at face value, but subsequent deals could ease the blow.
rtcaino - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:06 AM EST (#135304) #
With Koskie, Hill, O-Dog, and Overbay our entire infeild defense is awesome.
Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:06 AM EST (#135305) #
From what I know about them, I have to disagree about Purcey. He's alleged to have a higher ceiling than Jackson and the system is still flushed with medium-velocity control pitchers, like Banks, Janssen, and Romero. I'd rather see JP keep the higher upside power arms such as Purcey, McGowan, and Rosario.
iains - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:07 AM EST (#135307) #
This just struck me... doesn't this trade leave the 40 man roster at 39?
Mark - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:09 AM EST (#135308) #
MLB, ESPN, Sportsnet all announce the trade as a 3-1 with no PTBNL. It is only the early scoops before the trade was official that include a PTBNL so I don't think there is one.
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:12 AM EST (#135309) #
Rosenthal is saying that the Orioles have interest in Hinske.

YES, there is a God!!!
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:13 AM EST (#135310) #
I'm not sure I'd get my hopes up and scour the Brewers top prospect lists, I figure we'll get a C type prospect at best, otherwise it would have been decided on before the trade was confirmed. But just so we can dream tonight, who are some of the best or most notable PTBNL's in the history of the game?

CaramonLS - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:13 AM EST (#135311) #
No, ZachJack wasn't on the 40, Bush and Gross were.

But we haven't added Burnett to the Roster. Need to add Overbay as well.

Gaudin was DFA'd for Ryan.

Brings us back to 40.
Mark - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:14 AM EST (#135312) #
The star is saying the jays might use Hudson to try and get Wilkerson. Please, No, please please please please not the odawg nooooo!
Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:15 AM EST (#135313) #
Baker's update says a Wilkerson deal may start with O-Dog, but Blair mentioned Hinske, Rios, and Batista. I think Batista or Lilly plus a pitching prospect might get it done. I'd rather offer Adams than Hudson.
Thomas - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:16 AM EST (#135314) #
Yahoo is stating that it is Overbay for Bush, Gross and a PTBNL. I wonder if somehow the confusion over a PTBNL/Jackson meant that Blair gave Toronto a PTBNL he shouldn’t have?
dp - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:17 AM EST (#135315) #
I think this is a bad deal, though I'm biased because I like Overbay, Gross and Bush...

IMO, Overbay is a very good player, but really not someone you give up this kind of talent for. JP doesn't like Gross, I think he'll outperform Rios for his career, but whatever. Bush looked like a #2/#3 in 2004, and had a "bad" 2005 that wasn't actually all that bad- I'd rather take a chance on him in the #5 spot than anyone else on board. With Doc/AJ/Chacin/Towers as the front 5, I thought we'd be better off taking the chance on Bush emerging as a stud.

1B is supposed to be an easy place to find talent, but it hasn't been lately. The knock on Overbay is his lack of power, which is a bigger issue for the Jays than it would be for other teams. Still think they need Frank Thomas or Mike Piazza...
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:17 AM EST (#135316) #
If it is the deal you just mentioned Rich, you don't even blink.

You pull the trigger on that one.
BCMike - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:20 AM EST (#135318) #
I don't think JP is going to deal Hudson unless it's in a deal for a big bat like Dunn. He's got a lot invested in his pitching staff and one of the things he likely considered with Overbay was defense. Combine that with all the other assets the Jays have and I don't see JP moving a gold glove, fan favorite.
Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:21 AM EST (#135319) #
Don't get too excited; I didn't explain properly. Blair didn't say this is what the Jays would offer to Texas; he just mentioned these names as players JP would consider moving. I'd do Batista / Rios / Hinske (and eat salary too) for Wilkerson in a heartbeat, but that's not what Blair wrote and no sane GM would ever take that.
Waveburner - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:25 AM EST (#135321) #
Too much for Overbay. You don't shed any salary and now you have 3 1B. The chances of getting anything remotely decent for either Koskie, Hillenbrand or Hinske is are pretty low now IMO. Teams can see we HAVE to trade at least one, and none of them are cheap or young. It feels like JP is backing himself into a corner. On the face of it, I think this is a very poor trade. Depending on what else JP manages to do, I may change my mind. I think Bush has #2/3 starter written all over him and Zach Jackson is an oustanding prospect. The loss of Gross doesn't bother me but only because the Jays seem to have little interest in him. I am all for using surplus pitching to bolster the lineup, I'm just not enthralled with Overbay. Hopefully Newton turns out to be right.
Mike D - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:25 AM EST (#135322) #
Remember back in late May? Dave Bush did not always conduct himself with the grace and team-first attitude that J.P. and Gibbons demand. Toronto's building a clubhouse, not just a roto team.

This is not to say anything about Gross, of course. But it's another reason not to trade either Shea or O-Dog.
zaptom - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:27 AM EST (#135323) #
Given our needs, this trade begins to address our offensive needs. Bush and Jackson will not be batting for us anytime soon and AJ/RJ have addressed our immediate pitching needs. We have enough prospects to warrant this trade. The surplus of fielders we currently have indicates that they will be the next ones involved in a trade. Realistically, Bush and a high-end prospect were going to be traded this offseason like it or not. Theres no shame in pulling the trigger on this deal.
Jacko - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:32 AM EST (#135325) #
Wilkerson is a fine player, and was hurt quite a bit by playing in RFK stadium last year. My immediate thought was that acquiring him would make the Jays quite vulnerable to lefthanded pitching, but Wilkerson does not have much of a platoon split.

The Jays could clearly use at least one more righthanded bat, preferably one that can play a position. Alternatively, they could let Aaron Hill stick around to spell Koskie and/or Hudson against tough lefties.


dp - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:36 AM EST (#135327) #
<i>Dave Bush did not always conduct himself with the grace and team-first attitude that J.P. and Gibbons demand. Toronto's building a clubhouse, not just a roto team.</i>

Yeah, I wouldn't want guys with talent like Felipe Lopez around...give me hard-nosed vanilla guys like Russ Adams any day....

If you have a player with a personality problem and they've got serious talent, you need to be able to address the problem so you can maximize his talent. Especially when they're young- a lot of guys mature significantly after a year or two in the majors. Not everyone can have the composure of David Wright when they're 22.

Yeah, I'm still bitter we got jack sh*T for F-lop...
Ron - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:37 AM EST (#135328) #
Rosenthal on SNNews said the O's have some interest in getting Hinske.

Trading Hinske is one way to clear the logjam at the corner infielder spots.
greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:39 AM EST (#135329) #
I like everything JP has done so far, even if losing Jackson and Bush stings. But if we deal O-Dog (especially for someone like Wilkerson), I'll be seriously disappointed. JP has got to find a way to clear out Batista and Hinske. But I think we can go to the playoffs with Hudson, so long as we strengthen RF and C.

Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:43 AM EST (#135330) #
I like Wilkerson, but you can't blame his 2005 woes all on RFK:

Home: .236 / .367 / .395
Road: .257 / .337 / .414

Considering that it cost Soriano to get him, I think Texas sees him more as the .255 /.374 / .498 hitter he was in 2004.
Waveburner - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:43 AM EST (#135331) #
Does Hinske mash against the O's or something? You'd think the GM's that have seen Hinske the most over the last 4 seasons would be the least likely to be interested. Crazy sport baseball is.
BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:46 AM EST (#135333) #
I'll only be content with the Overbay trade if it was a preventive measure to retain Orlando Hudson. Dealing him would be an utter travesty unless a world class bat returns. JP has mancrushes on Overbay and Wilkerson. It doesn't seem that he will be stopped in fulfilling his obsession, even if it costs our young, talented players.
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:47 AM EST (#135335) #
The texas MLB site says; "The Rangers have prospect Ian Kinsler ready to take over at second base."

It goes on to say they now will be after pitching.

Hudson could be safe.
jsut - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:47 AM EST (#135336) #
I'm not sold on this deal yet, but i might be. At first glance it seems like a lot to give up, but realistically, they've got a lot of guys on the 40 they have to make sense of before they can get to a 25man roster that they actually want to bring to toronto in april. maybe this is just another step towards it.
Ryan C - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:48 AM EST (#135337) #
There's alot of talk that if the Jays did not make this trade then Overbay would have gone to the Sox for Clement. Obviously we'll never know for sure, but that possibility should be considered.
Mike D - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:51 AM EST (#135339) #
Not everyone can have the composure of David Wright when they're 22.

Of course. But Dave Bush is 26. And he's nowhere near the talent David Wright is.

Ron and others have made the point well. There's no place in the 2006 rotation for Bush. Period. Mike Green argued with conviction that Bush would do well and that A.J. was unnecessary, but that's water under the bridge.

In 2007, let's assume that one of Lilly and Chacin is gone. You can reserve that last spot for a 27-year-old Bush, but will he be a desirable alternative to the 2007 versions of McGowan? Rosario? Banks? Marcum? Purcey? Janssen? Ricky Romero?

It's possible. But certainly not likely. Dave Bush is in a numbers crunch and didn't help himself on the interpersonal side. Let's wish him well, but the A.J. Burnett signing guaranteed that the Jays would not be able to horde the likes of Bush forever.
Anders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:52 AM EST (#135340) #
It would appear that the Jays are not getting a PTBNL - that Jackson was the PTBNL on the Jays side. This makes this a worse deal, no question.
Waveburner - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:53 AM EST (#135341) #
For anyone interested, this list was posted on BlueJayWay.com as the players who could possibly the PTBNL. I have zero info on these prospects however.

PITCHERS (15):
RHP Khalid Ballouli
RHP Justin Barnes
RHP Kenny Durost
RHP Brett Evert
RHP Jerome Gamble
LHP Jeff Housman
LHP Rafael Lluberes
LHP Sam Narron
RHP Luis Pena
LHP Andy Pratt
LHP Mitch Stetter
RHP Ty Taubenheim
RHP Eric Thomas
RHP Brian Wolfe
RHP Glenn Woolard

CATCHERS (4):
Carlos Corporan
Nestor Corredor
Lou Palmisano
Mike Rivera

INFIELDERS (11):
2B / 3B Chris Barnwell
SS Ozzie Chavez
2B Callix Crabbe
SS Enrique Cruz
2B / 3B Brian Dallimore
3B Jeff Eure
1B Brandon Gemoll
3B Adam Heether
3B Josh Murray
2B Guilder Rodriguez
UT Vinny Rottino

OUTFIELDERS (3):
Drew Anderson
Kennard Bibbs
Steve Moss
The Bone - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:56 AM EST (#135343) #
You know, I realize he takes a lot of flak and I realize he will have made 15 million over the life of his contract, but I've still always held a soft spot for Hinske. He worked his tail off at third base to become average defensively. Then, when we acquired Koskie, he told J.P. play me at 1st base - just don't trade me. Overbay's acquisition ends his tenure at first base. It has to be done to improve out team, but Hinske was always a good guy who loved to play for this team and I just wanted to acknowledge his efforts.
Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:57 AM EST (#135344) #
Hinske has mashed in Camden the past few years-.326/.374/.579. Maybe that's why they're interested. Other than that, it's inexplicable.
JayWay - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:59 AM EST (#135346) #
Hudson - Overbay double-play combo: The Hudson-Bay Company?
Ryan C - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:01 AM EST (#135347) #
The Hudson-Bay Company?

That is far too clever for 2am.

King Ryan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:06 AM EST (#135348) #
Hudson - Overbay double-play combo: The Hudson-Bay Company?

Suddenly...I like this trade.

rtcaino - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:07 AM EST (#135350) #
What took so long? The trade got announced like two hours ago... This site is slipping. Lol.
actionjackson - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:13 AM EST (#135351) #
Speaking of man crushes, let's not forget the man crush that micro-manager Buck Showalter has on Orlando Hudson. I for one will not breathe easy until JP has acquired Wilkerson, without sacrificing the Dawg. Texas- you are getting sleepy, you need Batista and Adams, you will give us Wilkerson. OK, I can dream. :) Oh, and Baltimore, step right this way, we'll pay half for Hinske and you give us a good prospect, or we'll pay nothing and you can give us a Scott Wiggins type.
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:02 AM EST (#135353) #
Jackson is a good prospect, but pitching prospects rarely achieve the greatness that their admirers predict. As long as Ricciardi is in charge of this organisation, they are going to produce prospects like Jackson on a regular basis. Other teams can't do this, so they have to trade established players for these prospects and hope they catch lightning in a bottle.

In view of his AAA performance, Jackson should not be regarded as an A or A+ pitching prospect. That is based not only on his actual pitching record in the minors, but also on the notion that he was drafted as a "polished" college pitcher (as opposed to Purcey, about whom it was generally agreed that he had the higher ceiling).

This is the kind of thing a grade A college pitching prospect does in the minors:

A+ (age 22.4) 86.0 IP, 70 H, 19 W, 104 K, 2.34 ERA
AA (age 22.4) 32.2 IP, 11 H, 7 W, 32 K, 0.28 ERA

(Justin Verlander)

This is what Jackson has done:

A- (age 21.1) 15.0 IP, 20 H, 6 W, 11 K, 5.40 ERA
A+ (age 22.1) 59.1 IP, 56 H, 6 W, 48 K, 2.88 ERA
AA (age 22.1) 54.0 IP, 57 H, 12 W, 43 K, 4.00 ERA
AAA (age 22.1) 47.1 IP, 61 H, 21 W, 33 K, 5.13 ERA

And this is what Dave Bush did in his first two years:

A- (age 22.6) 22.1 IP, 13 H, 7 W, 39 K, 2.82 ERA
A+ (age 22.6) 13.1 IP, 10 H, 2 W, 9 K, 2.03 ERA
A+ (age 23.6) 77.0 IP, 64 H, 9 W, 75 K, 2.81 ERA
AA (age 23.6) 81.0 IP, 73 H, 19 W, 73 K, 2.78 ERA

Even throwing out AAA, Dave Bush put up better numbers in his first two season than Jackson. Jackson started his pro career about 18 months younger than Bush did, but Bush had much less pitching experience than Jackson in college.

Overall, looking only at the numbers, I don't think that Jackson is a better prospect now than Bush was after two years of pro baseball.

It's very likely that Jackson, in two years, will be precisely where Bush is right now. That's if Jackson stays completely healthy.

The Jays have given up a B+ pitching prospect (Jackson) and a solid young major league pitcher (Bush) and a marginal major league outfielder (Gross).

Talent for talent, Overbay is probably worth less than that (but not very much less). But given the talent distribution on the team, it's an advantageous trade for the Jays. Why?

Because these are the kinds of trades teams with very good farm systems make: they seek out one player that will be a long-term solution to their problem, giving up pieces of their farm system in return. I think, in Overbay, they have found this player. I believe they control his rights through 2009. At that point he's going to be 32 years old, which means that the Jays are going to enjoy his prime years at relatively low cost.

I'll add that it's a very good trade for Milwaukee, given their intention to give the 1B job to Prince Fielder.











actionjackson - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:21 AM EST (#135354) #
I'll add that I like trades that work out for both sides, and I think this one will. It tends to keep other GMs interested in talking to JP, if he commits to win-win trades like this one appears to be. If you always want to fleece the other guy, eventually you'll have less trading partners. I know it's fun to trade Hinske and Batista for Ortiz and Ramirez, but it don't work that way in the real game.
actionjackson - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:24 AM EST (#135355) #
I am sad to lose a member of the Jackson clan before he had a chance to play in the bigs. Oh well, I've got memories of Roy Lee belting out the anthems and Darrin (cringe!) Jackson. But, I'll get OVER(bay) it. Sheesh, it must be late.
King Ryan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:21 AM EST (#135357) #
Robert makes some great points.

I guess I was just holding out hope that we could do better than Lyle Overbay. Now the Jays have lost two pretty valuable assets. I wish they could have packaged Zach Jack and Bush with some other players and gotten a real slugger, instead of Shea Hillenbrand with a few more walks.

JP knows what he's doing though. One things for sure, this offseason is very exciting!

Yes, I know I have moodswings.
andrewkw - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:57 AM EST (#135358) #
Man reading this thread made me miss my bus.. I voted for glad to have but gave up to much. While i'm a big Dave Bush fan and think he will be a solid starter i would have still made the trade for him + Gross. I just thought Jackson would have had more value, perhaps i'm wrong. That being said if there was a chance of Overbay going to Boston it makes it a better trade for the jays. When JP said he planned on adding 35-40 home runs not sure if those are the exact numbers but did he mean +35-40 or just 2 20hr guys. Even if you're just subtracting Hinske he still hit 15 home runs and Overbay hits 20 you've only added 5. Now I know Overbay is not here to hit home runs, and is a much more complete player but I still think the team needs power.
Dave Till - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:35 AM EST (#135360) #
My guess now is that Hillenbrand will not be moved. The Jays like him. But Hinske is doomed.

J.P. is talking about acquiring one more bat, so I guess Rios's days are numbered.

I'll be curious to see whether Overbay shows more power in Toronto. But I like his on-base percentage.

Of the players moved, I liked Bush the best, but Gibbons didn't like him, he doesn't have overpowering stuff, and he's been very inconsistent. There was no place for Gross, and the Jays have half a dozen guys like Jackson, so I'm not worried about losing them.

Besides, there was competition for Overbay's services, so the Jays had to give something to get something.

I'd like to see what else J.P. has up his sleeve, though.
Jordan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:26 AM EST (#135362) #
Robert, great to see you back again!

I think this is a good trade for both sides. The Jays improve themselves pretty considerably at first base without giving up anyone who was going to be key to future ballclubs (one of the reasons for signing Burnett was to create just this sort of surplus on the pitching side). The Brew Crew get themselves two very underrated players in Bush and Gross who will, if Milwaukee is patient, pay off in the near future. I've never been a huge Zach-Jack believer, so losing him doesn't sting that much.

Very interesting to see Wilkerson in Texas ... I wonder if JP might try to swing a major deal that nets him both Wilkerson and Laird? I don't want to see the O-Dog go either, but I can't shake the feeling that he'll be the key to any subsequent trades.

Way cool stuff.
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:29 AM EST (#135363) #
My guess now is that Hillenbrand will not be moved. The Jays like him. But Hinske is doomed.

I agree. I think Hillenbrand's right handedness will be his saving grace on a team that tilts to the left. I believe that Overbay will ultimately serve as an upgrade over one of fellow lefties Hinske and Koskie, likely the former.

Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:50 AM EST (#135364) #
Oh, and count me among those sad to see Bush go. It's clear he had no real role on the 2006 staff, but for some reason, perhaps unfounded, I like him more than Chacin and Towers.
Useless Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:03 AM EST (#135366) #
I'm happy with this trade as long as they keep Hillenbrand. Koskie at third, Hillenbrand at DH and Overbay at 1st makes me happy - if they get rid of Hillenbrand you're only marginally improving your power since Shea was actually one of our higher up power guys, sad as it is - it'd be like, as a friend put it, trading three quarters for a dollar. If I recall correctly Overbay hit only 1 more home run than Shea did last year.

If they move Hinske, then you're just adding those neededd bats without reducing your bat power first (since Hinske wouldn't be playing anyway) - and that's exactly what we need.

Plus Shea's great.

I'm not worried about the prospects - JP's shown an uncanny ability to manage our farm system, and I'd have to agree that they're not excessively vital, especially if we really do become insta-contenders (you know it's possible). We've got lots coming up, and we can't hang on to all of these prospects forever.

I'm ridiculously glad the Bush/Shea for Overbay rumours weren't true.

And as for the cautious pragmatists here - if we had avoided overpaying people, avoided giving up "too much", and all that - what would we have actually been able to get this offseason?
Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:05 AM EST (#135368) #
It's clear he had no real role on the 2006 staff, but for some reason, perhaps unfounded, I like him more than Chacin and Towers.

Yeah, I agree with you Chuck. It's very hard to argue with robertdudek's analysis of this deal-I think he's bang on with everything he said. I'm actually not disappointed that the Jays kept Towers over either of these guys-he's put together a couple of solid seasons now-but I would have rather kept Bush instead of Chacin. They've got a stat that they call xFIP which they figure is a better predictor of future ERA and it has the two guys pretty even with a slight edge to Chacin. I think that part of the reason I like Bush is because I got to see him pitch in the minors but I just don't have high hopes for Chacin being any better moving forward.

kpataky - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:16 AM EST (#135370) #
The Blue Jays got robbed. All three of these guys for 1 average 1B whose numbers aren't that much better than Hinske's? What was JP thinking? These 3 guys are good enough to have got Delgado back.
Useless Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:17 AM EST (#135371) #
What kind of credibility is a GM going to have who says "Instead of upgrading our lineup with a certain effective power addition, we're keeping our pitcher who has never proven he can or ever will perform consistently well at the major league level. But his xFIP is really good!"?
Useless Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:24 AM EST (#135372) #
"Not much better than Hinske", kpatacky? What exactly are you using to determine that?

Hinske's OPS in the last three seasons - .766, .687, .763
Overbay's - .767 (86 G), .863, .816

Overbay's worst season over the past 3 was better than Hinske's best.

Or is there some newfangled statistic I'm not familiar with?
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:29 AM EST (#135373) #
The Blue Jays got robbed. All three of these guys for 1 average 1B whose numbers aren't that much better than Hinske's? What was JP thinking? These 3 guys are good enough to have got Delgado back.

Kevin, that's only true if the team trading away that Delgado are dumping salary and the team taking him on can afford the insane amount remaining on his contract.

Overbay is cheap, he should be at his peak, and he will contribute more to the 2006 Blue Jays than any of those three would have. This deal will be significantly better if Hinske is moved somewhere as part of another transaction -- the Jays will have upgraded with a significant savings in payroll.

I'm not as attached to the prospects as some who follow the minors just because I don't follow the minors as much. But some posts I've read since the trade have sounded like a certain lumpy-headed, cave-dwelling fellow hissing "My prossssssspectsssssssss!"
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:36 AM EST (#135376) #
Just plugging Rotoworld here as a nice site to follow player movement. I don't know who writes their trade analyses but I find myself in agreement quite frequently.

Not mentioned at the site, and from my head entirely, how about pursuing Todd Pratt? He's hit lefties well and would serve as a nice platoon mate for Zaun. It's not like more time in AAA would hurt Quiroz.

Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:41 AM EST (#135378) #
What kind of credibility is a GM going to have who says "Instead of upgrading our lineup with a certain effective power addition, we're keeping our pitcher who has never proven he can or ever will perform consistently well at the major league level. But his xFIP is really good!"?

Hey, easy there, useless Tyler. I'm saying get rid of the guy who has the shiny stats that I don't think he'll continue to put up. Of course the organization didn't appear to hate him, which might alter things.

Now, has anyone read Griffin today? He's in fine form:

Fact: In the last five years of Ash's regime as GM in Toronto, 1997-2001, his total payroll was $265.7 million. His overall record was 411-399, with a season high of 88 wins in 1998 and three winning seasons.

Fact: In the first four years of Ricciardi's regime as GM in Toronto, 2002-05, his total payroll has been $223.9 million. His overall four-year record is 311-336, with a one-season high of 86 wins in 2003, his only winning season.

Apparently old Dick doesn't realize that salary inflation eats away at the bang for the buck-MLB salaries have more than doubled in that period. Gord spent 102% of the MLB average during that time period-JP has spent 80% of the MLB average so far. If I was feeling more uncharitable, I'd point out that a good deal of that was pissed away on various Ash white elephants (and buffalo). Not that even this gives the whole picture; I suspect that there are other factors more important (median salary, where you stand in relation to the teams in your division/league etc.) but what Griffin has written is utterly dishonest and entirely misleading. Remember this when you're reading the Star's coverage of the Liberal/Tory campaigns-the writers down there have no compunction about slanting facts or applying dishonest spin to further their agenda.

I've come around to sharing Griffin's viewpoint in part in JP. The Jays must just laugh when he writes this crap though-any half sentinent human being is going to wonder about exactly what I just pointed out and conclude that Griffin has an agenda. Unbelievable.

Jim - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:41 AM EST (#135379) #
'It's not like more time in AAA would hurt Quiroz.'

You can't send Quiroz to AAA without exposing him to waivers.

Thaskins - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:44 AM EST (#135380) #
My thoughts? What did we realistically give up in this trade? Bush- Useful player but we have other options in the starting rotation this year and the bullpen. By next year we could have 3-4 options that are superior to him. Gross- Useful player but at 26 he’s never really taken off. He’ll have a good little career as a LH platoon player. But, he’s not going to develop into anything special at this point. Again, we’ve got other better options available. Jackson- Realistically, he’s the only player that COULD turn into something. But, in return, we got a player (Overbay) who IS something. Gross/Bush had their chance and they didn’t take it by the neck. They could have fine careers but we’re picking up a guy who immediately upgrades 1B offensively and defensively and we’re only giving up one guy (Jackson) who might come back to haunt us. Unless he turns into Barry Zito. . . I’d rather have Overbay.

As for the glut of corners. I hope we keep Hillenbrand and Koskie. Hillenbrand will give us some great flexibility at the DH/1B/3B position. Add in that we’re keeping Reedo for another year and we’ve got great flexibility in the OF as well. Injuries happen. . .flexibility is a beautiful thing.

Finally, speaking of injuries. Isn’t that the elephant in the room we’re forgetting with O-dog? I know he’s a hell. . .HELL of a 2B but he’s not exactly 23 and he’s been injured I believe every season he’s been with us. Doesn’t that have to be talked about when we talk about his ability? My guess, McDonald was brought back to be a defensive replacement for Hill at SS while he’s learning to play at the ML level and Adams at 2B while he learns a new position at the ML level.
Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:44 AM EST (#135381) #
Kevin, that's only true if the team trading away that Delgado are dumping salary and the team taking him on can afford the insane amount remaining on his contract.

The Marlins WERE dumping salary and the Jays CAN afford the insane amount remaining on his contract. The Marlins tossed in $7MM for the Mets-that deal is worth $41MM over three now. The Jays could have done that I think. It was never going to happen, which is unfortunate, but it wasn't undoable.

Maldoff - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:51 AM EST (#135383) #
Just remember, it was only 2 years ago that Overbay and 2 mid-range prospects (neither of which could be better than Jackson or Bush) fetched Arizona Richie Sexson. My point? Basically, teams over-value prospects. The Jays needed offensive help now, and got it at the expense of 1 OF who never would have started for them, and 2 pitchers that are carbon copies of others in the system.

And if Overbay turns into the Mark Grace copy that people were expected, all the better. Good move, I think.
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:54 AM EST (#135385) #
I encourage anyone who feels that Griffin's dishonesty hurts the paper's credibility to write to the Star's ombud.

Of course, they never got back to me about Griffin's columm where he opnined that the book Chasing Steinbrenner was not very good, but then in later the article revealed that he hadn't read it by attacking it for being a pro-Moneyball analysis of the Jays' woes. (The book is a collection of small stories from the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays clubhouses and front offices during the course of 2003, many of them funny.)

That, I feel, was far more malicious than his near-constant Jays bashing: it was a negative review of a book that he had not read, with the review being read by the major target audience for the book. What kind of person sabotages another author like that?
Leigh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:55 AM EST (#135386) #
It's great to see you back, Mr. Dudek. Your analysis of the trade is the best I've seen, and makes any thoughts that I have to offer on this somewhat redundant.
Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:58 AM EST (#135387) #
I think Robert Dudek nailed the trade analysis, so there's no point in repeating that.

A couple points I'll add:

* This puts the Jays back to a full 40 man roster (Burnett and Overbay are added, Gross and Bush taken off)

* The Jays only gave up their number 4 pitching prospect, keeping the pitchers with more upside than Jackson (who was considered a middle rotation pitcher) - McGowan, Purcey and Janssen, and I'd take Ricky Romero over Jackson as well.

* The Jays have needed to consoldiate their roster, moving their surplus of decent players for better players. Overbay is an good upgrade.

* Since he's entering his first year of arbitration Overbay will be under market value for three years - the Jays will get 3 years for the price of 2.

* The Jays have added Burnett, Ryan and Overbay to last year's team and have only given up Bush and Gross from that team (and Gross' contributions were minimal last year). Not considering payroll that's a real nice upgrade.
Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:59 AM EST (#135388) #
I am OK with this deal. The usual first question in looking at a deal is "who got the best player?" I think it's clear that the Jays did. Overbay is a slightly above average player, not a huge banger, but JP has said consistently that players like Overbay would be his target. The 30-40 homerun guys are not available, at least not for a reasonable price.

Right now Bush is a poorer version of Josh Towers and Jackson is a junior version of Gustavo Chacin. Up until this year a lot of fans would not have been upset to see Towers traded. This off-season many fans are suggested the Jays should trade Gus now. The improvement by Towers this year was a surprise and we cannot be sure that Bush would follow the same path. Also remember that pitchers like Bush and Towers often have poor results until they hit their late twenties. What you saw of Bush in 2005 would likely be typical of 2006 as well.

Jackson is a pitcher very like Chacin, lefty, fastball at 88-90 mph, cutter, low K's, relies on hitting his spots. As Robert said above there are no guarantees with prospects.

So, I think this was a good trade for the Jays, they improve today, reduce their 2006 risk, and deal from their strength.
dp - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:59 AM EST (#135389) #
Has anyone else seen/commented on this:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1133954464436&call_pageid=969907739730&col=970081600908

More Moneyball...in case we needed any more proof the Jays aren't/weren't Moneyball...

It certainly puts a new light on the offseason- if they intend to put $85/$100 million into payroll every year, this is a totally different team.

Robert, I dig your take on Overbay. With 1B being traditionally a power position, if he's our longterm solution, that means power's going to have to come from somewhere else. And it won't be coming from RF, LF, or DH as long as they keep the current cast. So that means they're depending on a rebound from Koskie and Wells- not quite enough IMO...we'll see what happens over the next few months...
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:59 AM EST (#135390) #
The Marlins WERE dumping salary and the Jays CAN afford the insane amount remaining on his contract. The Marlins tossed in $7MM for the Mets-that deal is worth $41MM over three now. The Jays could have done that I think. It was never going to happen, which is unfortunate, but it wasn't undoable.

Yes, I'm aware the Marlins were dumping salary. However, the $7 million was only to cover the difference in taxes, as per Delgado's contract -- the Mets are on the hook for the full contract amount, still.

With the taxation difference here, Delgado's contract would be even worse for the Jays. It was do-able without all the other signings this off-season, sure, but is that some kind of intelligent move? I didn't mean it was physically impossible -- they could non-tender everyone and sign one player for $75 million if they wanted to -- but more that it wasn't possible in a "field and competitive baseball team" sense, especially in the final years.
CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:02 AM EST (#135392) #
"Or is there some newfangled statistic I'm not familiar with?"

Well, there's always that old-fashioned one called, uh, let's see - oh, yes, "homeruns". ;) Hinske has socked 15 in the last two seasons. Overbay, with 16 and 19, hasn't really outperformed him all that much. (Okay, that year with 53 doubles - that's damn fine. And the SLG is decent. But, hey, we're comparing him to Hinske here. ;) )

Frankly, this had better be "the bat" and not "the big bat".
This is a very middle-of-the-road player offensively, and the Jays have lots of those. He doesn't do much to address the _big_ gap between the Jays best hitters (now, surely, with Overbay among them) and the best hitters on other contending teams. And he surely doesn't address the dearth of power very much. Even Mench would do a better job at that, with 25 and 26 HR in the last two seasons - at least from an ISOP angle.

The Jays need to gamble to catch up. This trade isn't really gambling, it's an almost certain upgrade, though a fairly slight one. The only gamble is the loss of some prospects. But, they need to acquire some players with more upside. We still need a "big bat". This isn't it.

I'll wait and see. If this remains the last change to the lineup (I doubt it), I'll be disappointed - unless Overbay turns into Konerko overnight. ;)
Jim - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:02 AM EST (#135393) #
This is a great trade. Much better then the 1/10 of a Billion spent on Burnett and Ryan.

Gross is a non-entity, Jackson is a decent prospect and Bush is a soft tossing righty, something not in short supply. You can't get something without giving something.
Craig B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:08 AM EST (#135394) #
Oof. It's a lot of talent to give up, but as Robert says, this is the kind of trade you make when you generate lots of prospects. Overbay is a nice (even a *very* nice) addition. The risk is there that this can turn into a Sizemore-Lee-Phillips for Colon type deal, but it's a small risk.

There are obviously more trades coming, probably after the Rule 5 and hopefully involving the Dodgers. My biggest concern with this deal is the impact on the budget... rather than cutting budget, this deal adds a little money.

There are some very attractive names that were not offered arbitration yesterday - so things are looking good for maybe another FA signing as well if the money can be found!
Andrew K - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:09 AM EST (#135395) #
Trades always hurt (unless your trading partner is stupid) because you have to give them something of value if you want something of value in return.

I like this trade. How many middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starters can the Jays use? By my count, there's really no point having more than 4 (3 in the rotation and 1 in case of injury). JP is doing exactly the right thing -- using our surplus of pitching prospects to get back solid major league talent. And make no mistake, we really do have a surplus.

The only slightly disappointing thing is that Overbay isn't really all that great. But he's good enough, as long as there's at least one more trade, this time for a genuine power bat. I do hope that they keep Hudson, though.
Newton - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:18 AM EST (#135397) #
I did prefer the deal with Hillenbrand in place of Jackson, but this is still well within my comfort zone.

As was mentioned earlier Jackson's best case scenario is that he becomes in the next two years what Bush is now.

Losing Gross doesn't worry me one iota.

Even if we don't acquire a true stud, there is an excellent chance that once the offseason is completed the Jays won't have any hitters in their lineup who will perform below the league average for their positions.

Bring on Wilkerson.
BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:21 AM EST (#135398) #
As you have perused through my various comments, I'm deadset against this trade. With that said, I am not privy to the scenarios which presented themselves to our GM. But to the trade advocates who stated that Gross was given a chance, that statement rings abit hollow. In 2 years, he was given 221 at-bats in a corner outfield where there really weren't any established stars (discounting Rios's recent stint). Obviously, injuries derailed his progress but it still doesn't explain why he was buried in the depth chart.

As far as Bush goes, I think some posters are underestimating his value on a staff where the #4 and #5 starters (Chacin and Towers) offer lesser potential and intangibles. Hes a 26 year old pitcher that hasn't approached arbitration years. While learning on the job in a tumultuous environment (the AL East), hes compiled a 4.15 ERA in 234 innings behind strong control. When you look at him he just needs to gain greater confidence in his other pitches. Alot of his problems last year could be attributed to him being too formulaic with his cut fastball and curveball.

The inclusion of Purcey doesn't irritate me very much if the other parts of the deal weren't included. The trio that we dealt would be more in line in a package for a higher tier hitter. Anyway, its refreshing that we all can partake in a civilized discourse on this gamble by PJ. It will be interesting to see what transpires from this date on.
greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:23 AM EST (#135399) #
Anyone out there have a good grasp on which players JP might go after (apart from Wilkerson, Garciaparra and Piazza)?
BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:23 AM EST (#135400) #
correction. I mean 2 seamer not cut fastball.
Useless Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:27 AM EST (#135401) #
BrockLanders, if you're that convinced that we could've gotten a better hitter for those three - why don't you name that hitter?

Keeping not just talent, but salary cost in mind.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:28 AM EST (#135403) #
Woke up, got out of bed, dragged a comb across my head... I read the news today, oh boy

This is a superb trade for the Melvin-Ash team. For 2006 in Toronto, this likely means 200 innings of Lilly or Batista instead of Bush and 400 plate appearances (and commensurate defensive innings) for Overbay instead of Hinske or Hillenbrand. That's probably a wash. In the long run, Toronto clearly loses.

I agree with Robert that Zach Jackson is a B prospect, and that the Jays have barrels of them, but Bush alone for Overbay would have arguably been too much but perhaps justifiable in light of the short term needs.

Poor trade.
Ryan C - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:32 AM EST (#135404) #
This is a superb trade for the Melvin-Ash team. For 2006 in Toronto, this likely means 200 innings of Lilly or Batista instead of Bush and 400 plate appearances (and commensurate defensive innings) for Overbay instead of Hinske or Hillenbrand. That's probably a wash.

A wash? If Lilly is better than Bush (and I believe he is) and Overbay is also better than Hinske (and again I certainly believe he is) then it seems like alot more than a wash.

BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:34 AM EST (#135405) #
You're telling me they couldn't have landed Carlos Pena or Huff with these players??? Obviously, Huff is a complex fit because of his impending salary. But they at least exhibit power like first baseman. If you make a deal like this you "should" (that being the prohibitive word if you factor in the trade climate) fill your power need. There should be no creative rationalization on the merits of Overbay. Hes a nice player but he can't hit third in front of Wells.
Leigh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:35 AM EST (#135406) #
Well, Brock, he's a better hitter than Wells.
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:37 AM EST (#135407) #
Pena is not as good as Overbay - the numbers don't lie. Huff is probably a better hitter, but he's more expensive and is a defensive liability at every position except DH.

Overbay is better value than either of those two. Try again.
Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:37 AM EST (#135408) #
Can anyone tell me what Overbay is likely to get in arbitration? It's a mystery to me.

NFH, as to your point about the taxes, the difference between the NY and FLA taxes for this year is somewhere between 300K-450K. So say 1.2 for the life of the deal. I don't know the difference between what he'd pay in NY and what he'd pay here, but I'm not sure that it's as much as you'd think, or as much to make the move prohibitive. Combine it with some other things (pushing Hinske overboard in the dark of the night) and I see it as being doable. I'd have preferred to spend the BJ money money that way.
Leigh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:42 AM EST (#135409) #
The following is an exhaustive list of first basemen likely (in my view) to outperform Overbay in 2006: Pujols, Delgado, Lee, Teixeira, Berkman, Helton, Konerko, N. Johnson, D. Johnson, Sexson, Giambi.
Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:44 AM EST (#135410) #
I found it interesting to see the Brewer quotes http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brew/dec05/376038.asp:

"Bush will be on our staff somewhere," manager Ned Yost said. "If he doesn’t make the rotation, he can pitch out of the bullpen. He fits well into our scheme. I really like this deal. It gives us a lot of versatility."

"We wanted a left-handed-hitting outfielder who could come off the bench and Gross gives us that," said Melvin. "He was the final piece to get the deal done."

"Jackson moved fast this year," said one club official. "He could be with us next year."

---
That makes it sound like Jackson was the player they wanted most of the three if they're not certain that Bush or Gross will start for them.
XooM - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:44 AM EST (#135411) #
Anyone have any comments on the PTBNL that the Jays supposedly got, Ty Taubenheim? Is he at leasr a C prospesct that everyone is hoping?
CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:44 AM EST (#135412) #
I think that's probably about right, in that he becomes the fourth or fifth best first-sacker in the AL, offensively. He's above average, but not much. Unfortunately, much of his offensive value comes from OBP. The Jays need HR or ISOP badly.
Newton - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:46 AM EST (#135413) #
Leigh, save those lists until after his arbitration!
Leigh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:49 AM EST (#135414) #
DS' ZIPS line (at Primer) for Overbay in 2006: .303/.390/.476
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:50 AM EST (#135415) #
The problem I see here is that some people are going ga-ga over the notion of the necessity of a real power hitter in the middle of the lineup. What's important is the complete offensive package. If you add up all the things Overbay can do, he probably the best hitter on the team right now.

Not all that long ago, the Blue Jays hit a bunch of homeruns, but because they had a low OBP, they finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored (the Green/Delgado/Cruz years).

But if you put a bunch of guys who can OBP .350 to .370 and hit 15 homeruns a year - if you fill your lineup with them and not have any weak spots, you are going to score quite a few runs.

That said ... Brad Wilkerson would be a nice addition to this club. And I wouldn't object to the Big Hurt or Nomar, either. I don't think the Jays are done, and I expect them to acquire another bat, with one or more of Rios, Hinske, Lilly, Batista and Hudson going the other way.

With the pitching this team now has, they won't have to be a top offensive team to be a serious contender.



Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:53 AM EST (#135416) #
With the signing of Burnett and Ryan, the trading of Bush and Jackson, and the placing of Ryan Houston on the 40 man over a couple of other prospects, it appears that the Jays are now placing greater weight on the mph on the fastball than performance measures in pitcher evaluation. Arnsberg seems to have a preference for this kind of pitcher.

The logical follow-up to this is placing McGowan in the starting rotation. It all could work. A rotation of Halladay-Burnett-McGowan-Chacin-Towers, with a bullpen topped by Ryan, Frasor and Speier and a good defence behind it could result in a huge drop in runs allowed. We'll see.
Craig B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:55 AM EST (#135418) #
Anyone have any comments on the PTBNL that the Jays supposedly got, Ty Taubenheim? Is he at leasr a C prospesct that everyone is hoping?

I'd say he's a C prospect. Taubenheim is an absolutely massive RHP (he measures 6-7, 240) and a good athlete who was a low-round pick but is moving up pretty well. He was just OK at double-A this past season but was terrific in the FSL before that, and in '04 and '03.

Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:55 AM EST (#135419) #
Here are his stats:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/T/ty-taubenheim.shtml

Not knowing anything but those numbers it looks like a C prospect. He pitched in AA for the Brewers so it may get a shot at starting for NH (although I'm not sure how the NH rotation looks right now).
Halladayfan32 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:58 AM EST (#135420) #
It sounds like the PTBNL is a AA pitcher in the Brewers system.

Courtesy of the Star "The player Toronto will get after today's draft is said to be a pitcher who spent time in Double-A last season."

Any thoughts as to who this might be?
CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:58 AM EST (#135421) #
I think that the lack of a big power hitter in the middle of this lineup - indeed, of ANYONE who can hit 25+ homeruns reliably - hurts them out of proportion to the isolated value of that type of player. Bill James talked about this once.
My gut (and sabermetric instincts) disagrees with the proposition that a team full of 15 HR, decent OBP players will score as well as the sum of the parts would project to. If you added a bopper in the middle, you'd get more team value than that player would project to add. I don't have time to study the issue, but will dig out James' comments re this line of thinking.
timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:58 AM EST (#135422) #
"Superb trade for the Melvin-Ash team"

"Bush alone for Overbay would have arguably been too much but perhaps justifiable in light of the short term needs"

Mike Green,
well said. In 2006, the very short term, the Jays will likely get more from the player(s) involved than will the Brewers.

However, in 2009, when we look back on this trade, there will be absolutely no doubt the Jays lost.
Sherrystar - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:59 AM EST (#135423) #
I like Overbay... but I also liked Jackson. Don't we have 3 first basemen now?

But this can't be it. Let's see what else J.P. has up his sleeve... I'm waiting for the next Blair blog as he'll surely have some juicy tidbits for us...

Garciaparra would be nice... just so I could walk around and say "No-mah"!
Cristian - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:02 AM EST (#135425) #
A few thoughts.

Overbay? More like overpay. I can't believe I'm the first to think of that one. Seriously though, this is a GOOD trade for the Jays. This will not change even if Bush, Jackson, and Gross all become valuable major leaguers. An earlier poster commented that he didn't like how Gross was buried in the depth chart. Well, the Jays have to have depth in order to bury someone. If one doesn't like how Gross was treated then they'd hate how Bush and Jackson would have been treated going forward. The Jays still have a logjam at the major and minor league level.

Get used to the deals whereby the Jays give up a number of players with potential for marginal improvement here and there. The Jays, based on run differential, were an over .500 club. It's marginal improvements here and there that turn these clubs into playoff teams.

I would have preferred to have dealt a player off the major league roster (ideally one making real coin in 2006), however it seems clear that the Brewers had no interest in this sort of player. That said, I sure hope we can unload some guys off the major league roster soon. It's getting crowded in Toronto. For anyone writing the usual "why don't we get Player X" post, please add how you think the Jays would make room for "Player X".

Last night I dreamt that I logged on to ESPN and the leading article was: Christmas shopping - Blue Jays make secret run at Matt Morris. Two things stand out about this dream. One: I write better headlines than Toronto papers--in my sleep. Two: Even though Matt Morris doesn't solve any problems with the club, I'm excited enough to dream about the Blue Jays in December.

Finally, I'm taking this from Primer but consider this:

The Brewers gave:
Richie Sexson
N. Varner
Shane Nance

Brewers turned that into:
2 yrs of Lyle Overbay
1 yr of Craig Counsell
1.5 yr of Junior Spivey
Chris Capuano
Jorge DeLaRosa
Tomo Ohka
Chad Moeller
David Bush
Gabe Gross
Zach Jackson

Wow. Now that's an F'n A trade.
MatO - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:06 AM EST (#135427) #
At first glance this morning I had visions of using "Lyle Overpay" a lot during the 2006 season. Isn't there an old baseball adage that you can never have enough 1B/DH's :-). Anyways, I can see both Robert's and Mike's sides on this. Maybe that means it's a good trade for both sides?

Here's a list of minor league pitchers, some of whom will likely contribute in 2006 and some conceivably by 2007 pending trades and Rule 5 of course.

Mcgowan
League
Rosario
Janssen
Purcey
Perkins
Banks
R. Romero
D. Romero
Vermilyea
Houston
timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:08 AM EST (#135428) #
CSHunt68,

I disagree. If they get Garciaparra and Wilkerson or Mench, they'd have 5 guys in the middle of their order with 20+ homerun power, and that's assuming Hillenbrand's gone.

You can pitch around a 40+ HR guy sandwiched between two 10-15 HR guys, but you can't pitch around 5 straight guys that hit 20+. I like the direction J.P. is going.
Leigh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:09 AM EST (#135430) #
However, in 2009, when we look back on this trade, there will be absolutely no doubt the Jays lost.

I doubt it... so there.

Christian, I'd rather have Sexson than that list of players.

MatO - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:12 AM EST (#135431) #
Damn. Beaten by seconds to Overpay!
Cristian - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:15 AM EST (#135432) #
Leigh, I disagree. In my opinion, Capuano on his own tilts the deal to the Brewers. If you still don't agree remember that the Brewers, more accurately, traded one year of Sexson for that list of players.
BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:17 AM EST (#135433) #
I agree also. Last I checked Sexson can't pitch.
Jacko - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:18 AM EST (#135434) #
There should be no creative rationalization on the merits of Overbay. Hes a nice player but he can't hit third in front of Wells.

You're kidding, right? A high OBP guy like Overbay is a perfect #2 or #3 hitter. Wells doesn't walk, but he hits lots of bombs. Ideally, you'd like to have some guys on base when he hits them...

Coach - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:18 AM EST (#135435) #
According to Bob Elliott, the Jays will also get Ty Taubenheim, a big RHP who struggled a bit in Double-A after pitching well in the FSL at 22.

It's always hard for me to be objective, especially so regarding this deal because I really like Dave Bush, the person. That's not to imply that I disliked Gross or Jackson, only that we didn't make the same kind of connection. I hope Dave has a long, productive career and a happy life. It will also be fun to watch him hit.

I'm a huge advocate of "win-win" deals like this one, which should benefit the Jays immediately and the Brewers eventually. Trying to fleece someone, even in a long-term fantasy league, is counter-productive; the more good relationships you maintain, the better. So it's great to see that J.P. and Doug Melvin can work together to improve both their clubs.

If the Brewers were determined to auction off Overbay sooner rather than later, I'm thrilled that the Jays got him instead of the Red Sox, who were allegedly offering Matt Clement (at last glance, somewhat more accomplished than Bush) but -- in the absence of a decisive GM -- apparently couldn't agree on how much cash to include. Three years of Lyle's expected production at his salary will be excellent value, all the better because he'll be doing it for the good guys, instead of a division rival.

As some of us have been pointing out for ages, this is what a farm system deep in pitching can help you accomplish. It will always be relatively easy to trade pitching prospects for an established bat. Getting any kind of plus arm for hitting prospects is nearly impossible in a market where mediocre pitchers sort through $20 million offers.

Can't wait to see what's next on J.P.'s to-do list -- Hinske (who had a much better year than Raffy!) to Baltimore would, in the scheme of things, be a minor move, with prospect(s) in return contingent on how much, if any, cash the Jays include. The real excitement should come with the Rangers. It wouldn't surprise me if Bowden was trying to get Soriano + Rios for Wilkerson in a three-way deal, with Batista + Hudson going to Texas. I can't believe that the Rangers would deal Soriano for more hitting, so a Wilkerson flip does seem imminent. Who else openly covets Brad and has pitching to spare?

The fit seems obvious, yet there are many potential wrinkles to iron out. Does Texas want Hudson enough to include Kinsler? Would the Jays give up Quiroz if they get Laird? Don't forget the Mark Connor connection with Brandon League; if your new pitching coach campaigns hard enough, it can impact front office decisions, as we've seen recently with Mr. Burnett.

Speculation and postseason dreams. Good times...
Maldoff - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:19 AM EST (#135436) #
I think the other thing to remember is that JP still has a "bullet" left to shoot....that being trading Batista. Batista makes $4M per year, will fall into 200 innings if he is a starter, or give you decent relief work. When you see the contracts that starting pitchers are getting, you have to think he can fetch us something good (especially if Hillenbrand and Rios are included in a deal).
CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:22 AM EST (#135437) #
"If they get Garciaparra and Wilkerson or Mench, they'd have 5 guys in the middle of their order with 20+ homerun power, and that's assuming Hillenbrand's gone."

IF they add two guys. And that's stretching it a bit, too. That "20+" is really "in the vicinity of 20". None of those guys, with the exception of Wells, have much shot at 30. If Wells turns into Studly Studderson, as he may yet, all's well. If he doesn't, and they don't add anyone, there's trouble.

I trust JP has more trades to do. I'll leave him to it. As is, the offense is little changed from last year, and still probably insufficient. (They were probably lucky to score that many runs last year, as EqA shows.)
Leigh - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:25 AM EST (#135439) #
Yeah, I forgot that it was only one year of Sexson.

If the Jays are looking for a full-time DH who could, on occassion, back up Zaun, I think that Craig Wilson is a much better option than Piazza. It appears as though Wilson is not in the Pirates' plans.

From today's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "In addition to looking into Monroe, the Pirates continue to discuss trading with the Red Sox for Trot Nixon or signing free agent Jacque Jones of the Minnesota Twins. Both are right fielders, part of a growing indication the team is looking to trade Craig Wilson, who has been pushed off first base by Casey's addition."

Wilson, the former Jays' farmhand, in the last three seasons has put up lines of .360/.511, .354/.499, and .387/.421, respectively.

*Wilson had only 197 at bats in 2005. In 2004, his only real full season as a regular, he slugged 29 homeruns and 35 doubles.
Jacko - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:26 AM EST (#135440) #
Anyone have any comments on the PTBNL that the Jays supposedly got, Ty Taubenheim? Is he at leasr a C prospesct that everyone is hoping?

Sounds like it.

No idea how hard he throws, but he sounds similar to Vince Perkins. Big guy who throws hard, but probably not that athletic (i.e. trouble with consistency and control). I'm guessing he's currently a PTBNL because he _might_ get picked in the Rule 5 draft today.

BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:28 AM EST (#135441) #
CSHunt, how will this "Overpay" affect Riccardi's trade relations??? They have to be licking their lips in delight. I don't know how JP can pull off a beneficial trade with such a disadvantage now attached like a yoke around his neck. The blood is in the water...
Cristian - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:30 AM EST (#135443) #
Does Texas want Hudson enough to include Kinsler?

I would think that Kinsler is the reason why the Rangers wouldn't have much interest in obtaining Hudson. Haven't the Rangers been trying to make room for Kinsler for over a year? Wasn't this the reason for the original 'Soriano to the outfield' rumours?

It's too bad the Jays couldn't strike a direct deal with Washington for Wilkerson. Washington seems to be a team that desperately need pitching moreso than an overpaid 2B who'll have to be moved to the outfield against his wishes.

XooM - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:31 AM EST (#135444) #
PITCHERS (15):
RHP Khalid Ballouli
RHP Justin Barnes
RHP Kenny Durost
RHP Brett Evert
RHP Jerome Gamble
LHP Jeff Housman
LHP Rafael Lluberes
LHP Sam Narron
RHP Luis Pena
LHP Andy Pratt
LHP Mitch Stetter
RHP Ty Taubenheim
RHP Eric Thomas
RHP Brian Wolfe
RHP Glenn Woolard

CATCHERS (4):
Carlos Corporan
Nestor Corredor
Lou Palmisano
Mike Rivera

INFIELDERS (11):
2B / 3B Chris Barnwell
SS Ozzie Chavez
2B Callix Crabbe
SS Enrique Cruz
2B / 3B Brian Dallimore
3B Jeff Eure
1B Brandon Gemoll
3B Adam Heether
3B Josh Murray
2B Guilder Rodriguez
UT Vinny Rottino

OUTFIELDERS (3):
Drew Anderson
Kennard Bibbs
Steve Moss


Is Taubenheim the best of the bunch? I was wondering if anyone with any knowledge of these prospects could shed some light as to which of these playes would interest the Jays other than Taubenheim (or is he the best choice?).
Jacko - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:32 AM EST (#135445) #
Wilson, the former Jays' farmhand, in the last three seasons has put up lines of .360/.511, .354/.499, and .387/.421, respectively.

Added bonus: Wilson has the best mullet in MLB. He would fit in perfectly in in a hockey town like Toronto.

Cristian - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:34 AM EST (#135446) #
Another spark of genius. I'm full of them this morning (many of you probably agree I'm full of something). Consider:

Once the Jays clear space on the 40 man roster what are the chances that the PTBNL in the Chad Gaudin deal will be...Chad Gaudin?
Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:38 AM EST (#135448) #
Btw John Manuel of Baseball America rates Taubenheim's stuff as "fringy".
Cristian - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:40 AM EST (#135449) #
That's good. You wouldn't want his pitches to catch more than fringes of the plate. Wait. Fringy means he has control, right?
Jordan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:41 AM EST (#135451) #
Speaking of people it's great to see ... hola, Coach!

instead of the Red Sox, who were allegedly offering Matt Clement

Wow, Boston soured on him in a hurry. Maybe it would have been for the best had the Jays lost out on the bidding for both Clement and Koskie last year. I do like the fact that the Jays secured, with three cheap young players, the services of a player for which the BoSox were willing to trade a pitcher whose services they beat out the Blue Jays to acquire. Okay, that was a really convoluted sentence, but you get the idea.

It seems to me that the Jays' infield glut breaks down as follows:

Corner Infielders: Koskie, Hinske, Hillenbrand, Overbay
Middle Infielders: Hill, Adams, Hudson (acknowledging that Hill can play 3B)

If the Jays were to deal only Hinske, perhaps in a partial salary dump, I think they'd be wise to keep the other three. Koskie can't be counted on for more than 100 games a season, so keeping Hillenbrand around as a utility CI guy who can pick 300-400 AB at 3B, 1B or DH might be a very good idea. But if Nomar Garciaparra ended up in a Toronto uniform (which I would welcome), Hillenbrand would be redundant.

In terms of the middle infielders, I really think Hudson will be the odd man out -- if the Jays intend to add Wilkerson, Russ Adams isn't going to get it done. It's also a fact, much as I love the O-Dawg, that both Hill and Adams are superior offensive players.

Gonna be one heckuva day.

Mike D - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:42 AM EST (#135452) #
I don't mean to dismiss the point, but to those arguing the Jays will look back in three years and regret this deal...

2006: Halladay/Burnett/Lilly/Chacin/Towers
2007: Halladay/Burnett/Chacin/Towers/vacant
2008: Halladay/Burnett/Chacin/vacant/vacant

Looking up and down the organizational chart, and considering who's rising in the minors, can you honestly plug Bush and/or Jackson into any of those vacancies? This trade would have been ill-advised without A.J. But with him, there's nowhere to go for Bush and Jackson.
Mark - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:47 AM EST (#135454) #
In reality Michael Young should switch to 2B. He is awful defensively. I thought that was one of the reasons they wanted to move Soriano to the outfield.(Also because Soriano is awful defensively). However, it was interesting that Atlanta inquired about Hudson to move him to SS. I could see them switching positions if he is swapped there (although I wouldn't mess with the good thing the odawg has going). Regardless, I really really hope we hold on to the O-dawg. If Overbay is as good as advertised defensively that right side of the infield will see potential hits live a short life.
rIbIt - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:47 AM EST (#135455) #
I agree w/Action. The Js don't have the most talented farm system in the L, but have enough prospects to keep other GMs intrigued.

I'm sure this trade was not done simply to send a message, but it certainly conveys a willingness to be reasonable. As a comparison, the team spent a considerable amount of $ in FA, but showed a willingess to Give to Get.

How talented is Overbay? Personally, I can only guess and there are contributers on this site that have given a more accurate analysis.

But...I'd rather have Overbay on the Js than have to pitch to him on Boston.

Can anyone quantify the value that swiping talent away from a rival is worth? Ryan, Burnett, and Overbay were all coveted by other members of the AL East.+
Ryan C - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:48 AM EST (#135456) #
However, in 2009, when we look back on this trade, there will be absolutely no doubt the Jays lost

We'll see. It's just as likely that by 2009 we'll have found out that Gross is a career 4th OF, Jackson never made it past AAA and Bush ended up no better than an average #3. I dont consider that scenario unlikely at all. In any event I wouldn't want to make a comment to the effect of "absolutely no doubt" one way or the other.

Either way the Jays have something of a logjam of average to good (not great) prospects and youngish players. Trading a couple for a signficant upgrade on what you had last year (Hinske) who is just entering what should be his prime (28) and his first year of arbitration is not a terribly bad deal.

Christopher - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:56 AM EST (#135459) #
It's also a fact, much as I love the O-Dawg, that both Hill and Adams are superior offensive players.

With such an investment made in pitching, is the difference in offense large enough to make up for the loss of Hudson's defense?

Personally I'd like to see them hang on to Hudson. It the Jays were looking to contend several years down the road, I could see them opting for Hill and Adams in the middle infield, but not if the idea is to contend this season.
CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:07 AM EST (#135465) #
How is it "clear" that Russ Adams is a better offensive player than Orlando Hudson?
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:10 AM EST (#135467) #
CSHunt, how will this "Overpay" affect Riccardi's trade relations??? They have to be licking their lips in delight. I don't know how JP can pull off a beneficial trade with such a disadvantage now attached like a yoke around his neck.

What does this mean? You think that quality. inexpensive hitters can be had for less? I'd challenge you to cite a recent trade that shows this to be true.

I can't believe people are going to try to saddle a guy making $400,000 with the nickname "Overpay".
Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:10 AM EST (#135468) #
For 2008, as of now, the Jays have Burnett (at $12m) and Ryan (at $10m) under contract. Overbay, Hudson, and Towers will be in their 3rd year of arbitration. Rios will be in his 2nd. Hill, Adams and Chacin will be in their first. Bush would be in his first, as well. Yes, there is an abundance of other pitching in the pipeline (some of which may actually materialize as valuable major league pitchers), but there is very little on the position player side.

It looks to me like this team, like the Royals of 84-85, is going to have a short run at it, which will depend largely on the pitching. Damn, where is George Brett when you need him? :)
Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:17 AM EST (#135469) #
I can't believe people are going to try to saddle a guy making $400,000 with the nickname "Overpay".

He's arbitration eligible. I have no idea what that moves him up to, but it's not going to be 400K.

BrockLanders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:19 AM EST (#135470) #
Sorry to interject, but the Red Sox just acquired Andy Marte from the Braves for Renteira. I don't have the salary responsibility details.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2252297
Jacko - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:20 AM EST (#135471) #
We'll see. It's just as likely that by 2009 we'll have found out that Gross is a career 4th OF, Jackson never made it past AAA and Bush ended up no better than an average #3. I dont consider that scenario unlikely at all. In any event I wouldn't want to make a comment to the effect of "absolutely no doubt" one way or the other.

Or maybe Gross turns into...Lyle Overbay? It's not much of a stretch to imagine Gross turning in some .380/.450 years in his late 20's or early 30's. Unfortunately, the Jays do not have the luxury of waiting to see how he'll turn out. They're in the part of the cycle where they want to win now, so it makes sense to trade for a more established player like Overbay.

I'm also kind of surprised how fast Zack Jackson's stock has fallen. He was a first round pick in 2004, and had a pretty good season last year, at least until he hit AAA. New Hampshire is a pitchers park, so it might have been a bit of a stretch promoting him after he posted a 4.00 ERA there.

Bush is an enigma. I have no idea what he did or said to get himself put on a short leash, but he was never given a chance to get himself out of jams like the other pitchers on the Jays staff.

It's been a little painful watching Doug Davis blossom in Milwaukee after being run out of Toronto. I imagine watching the other Jays alums is going to hurt as well. However, a world series appearance by the Jays will help dull the pain...

Mark - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:21 AM EST (#135472) #
Also sorry to interject but the jays lost 6 players in the rule 5 draft.

http://www.insidethedome.com/
Cristian - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:21 AM EST (#135473) #
I called him overpay based on what we gave up to get him. But mostly because I was being "clever". On further reflection, I don't even believe we overpaid to get him. By the way, Andy Marte has been traded to the Red Sox for Renteria. Who says a team needs a GM?
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:22 AM EST (#135475) #
He's arbitration eligible. I have no idea what that moves him up to, but it's not going to be 400K.

True. So, then, to make the point clearer -- does arbitration generally lead to overpayment or to a fair salary?
Barfieldsgun - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:24 AM EST (#135477) #
The Overbay deal is a good one. An old adage reads that the team who aquires the best player in a deal - wins.
Overbay has the potential to be a consistent 20-30hr type player. His OBP is excellent and defensively he's solid as well. Essentially we've committed prospects in this deal.

However, this O'dawg for Wilkersen nonsense must stop.
Wilkerson strikes out 120-30 times a year at least,
Barley cracks a .260 avg and only once has he had more than 20hr.

If your going to deal Hudson - put him in a package with
Cat and Lilly and see if we can get A.Dunn or somebody
with prooven power.
Sheldon - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:24 AM EST (#135478) #
I'm happy with the trade, I was never a big fan of Bush, and its not like he would have seen much time starting this season, and Gross was in a similar spot. I can see why people are upset about Zach Jackson in the deal, but prospects rarely turn out as good as we think they are. I think this is a situation where (as usual) we tend to overvalue our current players.

I still think the funniest and most ludicris post I've read all morning was the one where someone said that those three could have gotten Carlos Delgado....give me a break.

Anyways here's to hoping there is one more deal today!
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#135479) #
These winter meetings, and this web site, are sure cutting into my work schedule. Where do I go for compensation? ;)

Let me second Jordan's hola to Coach. Always nice to hear Kent's calm, collected voice of reason.

And nice to see Robert back on-line.

Overbay becomes the team's best hitter. I think that's clear. I don't think it's a good situation that he is your best hitter, but better that than a sub-800 OPSer like Hillenbrand being your best hitter, which was the case last year.

Ricciardi is a man on a mission, so I wouldn't presume anything, but I am guessing that a new DH will not be brought in and trump Overbay as the team's best hitter. I'd love to see Frank Thomas, as would others given yesterday's thread, but Rosenthal and Blair have made no mention of this, and given that they seem better connected to trade talks than any writers I have ever seen in the past, I'm not holding out hope.

So Overbay will be the team's best hitter in a lineup that will see no .500 sluggers. But, as someone pointed out, there is a terrific chance that every player in the starting lineup will be no worse than league average offensively at his position (presuming a new RF replaces Rios). This gives the Jays the tools for a long-sequence offense. This is not the worst situation in the world.

Is there a glut at 1B? I don't see it. I think the team has exactly one first baseman. The glut is at 3B/DH with 3 bodies -- Hillenbrand, Koskie and Hinske -- for 2 spots. Like most, my preference would be to see Hinske jettisoned, freeing up 3B/DH for Hillenbrand/Koskie with Hill caddying for Koskie and backing up at SS. There is room for everybody once Hinske goes.

Will Hudson get moved? I'm with those who hope not. I am fearful that the loss of his defense will not be offset by the gains in offense a new outfielder would offer. If Rios and Batista can fetch a decent hitting RF, I'm all for it. I'm much less enthused about Hudson and Batista being the trade bait.

CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:29 AM EST (#135480) #
"Overbay has the potential to be a consistent 20-30hr type player."

He does? Has he ever hit 20? Even in the minors? I think expecting him to hit 30 is expecting far too much. 20 is within his reach, but he hasn't been there yet.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:35 AM EST (#135481) #
Cristian, do you have a source confirming the Marte-Renteria trade?
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:38 AM EST (#135482) #
Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:41 AM EST (#135483) #
Thanks, Chuck. Seeing as the source is Gammons and an official announcement is due within an hour, I think I'll wait before posting something on the re-making of the Sox infield. It's fascinating. Epstein may be gone, but sabermetrics still seems to have a home in Boston.
Tom Servo - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:48 AM EST (#135484) #
Call me crazy, but if Toronto's looking to make a huge splash this offseason, would it be worth offering a one or two year contract to Roger Clemens? This isn't the same Jays organization he used to play for, and can you imagine Doc/AJ/Rocket as the first 3 pitchers in the rotation?
BCMike - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:52 AM EST (#135485) #
Why are those who don't like the trade under the assumption that there is no possibility that Overbay can actually improve on his numbers?

20 to 25 HR and an OPS over .850 certainly aren't unattainable numbers.

Tyler - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:53 AM EST (#135486) #
True. So, then, to make the point clearer -- does arbitration generally lead to overpayment or to a fair salary?

Based on what I've read, and I'd defer to someone like Tango or Robert, average players-and Overbay is an averagish 1B, albeit with plus defence, tend to be paid above their worth in arbitration.

trent77 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:53 AM EST (#135487) #
It seems that there are some people who think that trades are not good trades unless you get something for nothing. Overbay will be the Jays 1st baseman and is an upgrade over Hillebrand and Hinske both offensively and defensively.

Gross was #5 on the Jay's outfield depth chart and probably never would have moved up beyond 4th. He's 26-you get what you see at this point.

Bush was an average starter with upside. On the 2006 Blue Jays, that's not good enough to be in the rotation and his only chance at a bullpen spot would be in long relief, a spot where you could realistically slot in 3-5 other guys that would give you essentially what Bush would give you. His trade value is also at its highest right now, not after a year of long relief or starting at AAA.

Jackson I like. But I also like about 8 other starting pitching prospects in the Jay's organization and, last time I checked, we have 40% of our rotation (Halladay, Burnett) accounted for until 2010. You can never have too much pitching, but you do have only 5 spots in your rotation and there just isn't room for more than 2 prospects to make this team as starting pitchers in the next few years. Jackson was expendable.

Not a great trade-Overbay is not a 'scary' bat and we need 1-2 'scary' bats. We also have too much of a logjam in the infield. We cannot go into spring training with Overbay, Hillebrand, Hinske and Koskie.

But good trade-something for something. Both teams win.
mikerich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:55 AM EST (#135488) #
Is there any particular reason why Cat isn't on the Jay's updated depth chart? Here
VBF - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:00 PM EST (#135491) #
Very strange. He's still on the 40 man, but on the depth chart it says "Last updated, December 8th".
Nick - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:01 PM EST (#135492) #
"Call me crazy"

You're crazy.
Rookie Scribe - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:02 PM EST (#135494) #
"Either way the Jays have something of a logjam of average to good (not great) prospects and youngish players." - Ryan C.

From everything I've read today, this is the most accurate and is the best argument for making the deal with Milwaukee.

This is the bonus to drafting college seniors and J.P. alluded to it in some of his comments yesterday. When you have players who shoot up through the lower levels of the minors (a.k.a. Jackson), they look good to other teams. When in reality, their chances of ever becoming a great major leaguer are slim to none.

Essentially what I'm saying is that their value is at its highest when it's being used as trade bait.

Good deal. Let's move on to another one!

CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:08 PM EST (#135495) #
"20 to 25 HR and an OPS over .850 certainly aren't unattainable numbers."

No, they're not _unattainable_. Neither is 30 homers. But 20 is far more realistic, considering it's a plateau he has yet to reach, at age 28 - same with .500 slugging.
This guy just isn't a slugger, and nobody should expect him to be one. He's probably about as likely to hit 10 dingers as 30.
Grimlock - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:10 PM EST (#135496) #
Me Grimlock no think the Jays can afford the Rocket, though me Grimlock remain HUGE Clemens fan, despite way he left.

How much would Clemens command in this market? $14MM?
Rookie Scribe - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:12 PM EST (#135497) #
I would say no less than $15. And if both of the Yankees and Red Sox dangle their feet, it could veer into the $18-20 range.

Am I on-target?
timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:12 PM EST (#135499) #
ESPN Insider Rumors - Possibly 3B Blalock to Twins for pitching.

Damn. I was hoping Koskie, Hillenbrand or Hinske+$ might get traded to the Twins freeing up money for Garciaparra or Thomas. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens.
Barfieldsgun - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:26 PM EST (#135500) #
CSHunt...

Having the potential and actually executing that potential
are two different things. Consequently we call it - potential. Alex Rios is an excellent example of this.

Overbay is a safebet for moderate power production. We know
this. But he is now entering is prime destined for a park
considered 'hitter friendly'.

No one expects Overbay to jack out 30 bombs in '06. But
No one should be shocked if he approaches that plateau.
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#135501) #
I think Clemens got $18MM last year. And then he posted a sub-2 ERA.

Would any team with that kind of money to spend wait until February to do so, on the off-chance the Clemens might announce that he is not retiring?

I think that Boston and NY are the only realistic suitors, figuring that one year of Clemens at $15MM might be enough to push them over the top, particularly if they aren't satisfied with how their roster shuffling had gone to that point (say if Crosby is still NY's CF or if Boston has lost Damon).
Jordan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:28 PM EST (#135503) #
How is it "clear" that Russ Adams is a better offensive player than Orlando Hudson?

Hudson MLB: .270/.328/.418
Adams MLB: .262/.329/.401

Their totals to date are pretty indistinguishable. The difference is that Adams is three years younger and, up until hitting a wall late in the season, was comfortably in the .280/.350 range. Orlando has pretty much established his production level and will be 28 next year; Adams still has room to grow, especially (I suspect) if he’s moved to a less demanding defensive position like 2B. Plus, Adams is pretty much the team’s best option at leadoff.

mistermike - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:29 PM EST (#135504) #
<I>you know what, I'm not so sure JP doesn't want to keep Hillenbrand after all.</I>

I would keep Hillenbrand. He can DH and, as we saw last year, you need a solid backup third baseman to Koskie, who unfortunately always finds a way to get injured. It's almost guaranteed he'll miss 20-30 games per season.

However, many shoes are still to drop here.
Ryan B. - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:32 PM EST (#135505) #
Too bad J.P couldn't get in on Blalock, but the last thing we need is ANOTHER infielder.

As for the Overbay deal, I'm happy with the move. Bush is nothing more then another Towers/McGowen/Marcum so the Jays don't need him. Gross was never going to get a legit shot on this club, so he's fine to part with too. The only one I think is iffy is Jackson. He has a lot of upside but Purcey is still around.

I think we need a new thread for today's transactions and speculation, this is for Overbay talk isn't it?
CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:36 PM EST (#135507) #
Yes but, like all optimistic fans of a team, we only see the "up" potential. As a 29 year old player entering this year, he has about as much chance to move down as up. He's likely to stay about steady. Rios, as a soon-to-be 25 year-old, might not have reached his potential. He has much wider potential variances, up and down. Overbay is *already in* his prime.

Does Overbay have the potential for a breakout power year? Sure. I wouldn't bet on it. He is a safe bet for 15-20 homers, possibly tacking on 3 or 4 for RC. That's somewhere in the vicinity of 18-24 bombs. This isn't really the big power addition that I, and many (possibly including JP), feel the Jays really need to push them into contention in a very tough division.

I would be as surprised with 30 homers from Overbay as I would with, oh, let's say 12. I feel they're both about the same probability.
braden - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:40 PM EST (#135509) #
Boy, the signs sure are pointing towards a deal involving O-Dog, aren't they? Consider me on the side of HATING the possibility. Especially if all it nets them is Wilkerson.

CSHunt68 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:40 PM EST (#135510) #
I think those are pretty similar hitters if you ask me, Jordan. I still don't think it's "clear" that Adams is a better hitter. Perhaps marginally.
Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:41 PM EST (#135511) #
I can't remember if this was from Beane in Moneyball, but I believe he said that when he makes trades, he focuses on what he's getting, not on what he's giving up. Obviously you can take that too far, but with the caveats that a) you try not to give up your top talent or highest-ceiling prospects and b) you trade from areas of depth and don't create new holes by filling existing ones, then this is a good philosophy and it looks like this was JP's thinking on Overbay. He fits a need, we kept McGowan, and dealt from our surplus of young pitching.

JP might well agree with the comment that was made here that in 2009 this might well be a better deal for the Brewers, but the Jays are in a good postion to move aggressively now to try and make the playoffs. This was hardly a sell-the-farm trade.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:42 PM EST (#135512) #
It's not really clear what Adams will do. He is hitting with more power, and with fewer walks, than he did in the minor leagues. He has put on bulk in the lower half of his body; so this change is not likely a fluke.

By contrast, Hudson has really just reproduced his minor league equivalencies from the date of arrival and hasn't really progressed offensively. It has been known to happen that second basemen spend a disproportionate part of their early major league career learning their defensive craft, and then grow offensively in their late 20s/early 30s (if they are healthy).

In my view, Adams has a lot to learn defensively either at short or at second. His difficulties are not only making the throw from the hole.

Barfieldsgun - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:43 PM EST (#135513) #
Hudson isn't locked into his 'established' numbers.
Hitters can get smarter as the progress. If Hudsons numbers
had dipped noticabley in '05 this might be cause for concern but they didnt. He's entering his prime.

Similar to a player like Overbay - Hudson could conceivably
post a higher OBP - AVG - HR - RBI's going forward.


Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:43 PM EST (#135514) #
Blockbuster. Womack to Reds. How low has D'Angelo Jimenez's stock dropped?
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:49 PM EST (#135516) #
Similar to a player like Overbay - Hudson could conceivably post a higher OBP - AVG - HR - RBI's going forward.

Certainly anything is possible, but non-pitchers don't typically enter into their primes at 28 or 29. They are at their prime. Generally speaking, and yes there are exceptions galore, it's downhill after 28.

John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 12:59 PM EST (#135520) #
Roger Clemens a Jay? Never happen :) Just remember, last time it took a record contract for a starting pitcher (annual value) to get him. If he is available in February and the Jays have a ton of cash available for 2006 still and he is willing to work that far from home again and JP gets overruled by someone higher up and the Canadian dollar hits 95 cents US...

uh... what was I talking about again?

Basically Clemens coming back is extremely unlikely. Even more so than a return trip by Delgado was earlier in the winter. Still... the image of a Halladay-Clemens-AJ rotation is drool worthy.
Barfieldsgun - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:05 PM EST (#135521) #
"Generally speaking, and yes there are exceptions galore, it's downhill after 28."

Exceptions galore indeed. I beleive what divides those who
evolve after the age of 28-29 from those who don't has
more to do with the mental approach of a player rather than
the physical. At this age - mechanics have already been established.
I beleive Hudson is one of these exceptions. Call me an over-zealous fan,
but I think Hudsons peek years are the next three.
As for Overbay - one can only hope.
timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:07 PM EST (#135524) #
It's true that Adams is still learning defensively. However, if Hudson is traded, I think Adams would be better suited at 2B than SS. He definately wouldn't be as good as Hudson defensively, but his defense shouldn't be as bad as it was when he was at SS. I'd be interested to know how many of his 26? errors last year were throwing errors.
Jacko - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:14 PM EST (#135526) #
Sounds like the Craig Wilson is not coming to the Jays. They already had talks about Alexis Rios, and could not come to an agreement:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/sports//s_401940.html

Unless Rios has been earmarked for another, larger trade, a swap of Rios for Wilson would have made sense.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:18 PM EST (#135528) #
Obviously it should be Hudson over Adams at this point, defensively and to the point that we're going for 'it' he's far more valuable... unfortunately, JP might not have the choice, and Adams wouldn't be the worst replacement in the world at 2nd.
Adrock - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:20 PM EST (#135529) #
Long time listener, first time caller.

If Texas is interested in O-Dog, does that mean they might consider sending Ian Kinsler back Toronto's way? Something like Batista-Hudson-League for Wilkerson-Kinsler?

Laird's numbers from the PCL are also highly appealing. Might he take Kinsler's place coming back or are the Rangers set on him as the catcher of the future?
Joel - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:21 PM EST (#135530) #
I'm not upset with this trade, although I want to see how the logjams are cleaned up. Like others have pointed out, the Jays have over a half dozen young pitching prospects, some of whom have not even seen AAA yet. With Halladay and Burnett and for now Chacin all locked up for some time to come, when will these guys ever pitch.

I know we can dream of some imaginary rotation in 5 years time, but I'd rather have Overbay hitting well now and for three seasons and giving the Jays a reason to retain Halladay even longer.

I don't see the point of having a farm system full of major league pitching prospects who can't get any work.

Now, I would miss the O-Dog a lot, but I would not at all be unhappy with Wilkerson in return. If the offense is more consistent to win games, then Orlando's defense may not have as much as an effect. However, I just can't see anyone else playing it that well, so I'll get used to balls up the middle giving me more butterflies as I sit in the stands.
DepecheJay - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:23 PM EST (#135531) #
Trading O-Dog = pissed off Vernon = pissed off teammates = bad team chemistry

JUST SAY NO JP! NO deal for O-Dog is worth it. Especially after bringing in Burnett! IMO, a Hudson trade and the Jays take 3 GIANT steps backward and are a worse team then they were before the off-season started.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:27 PM EST (#135532) #
I agree, I wouldn't give up Orlando even if it nets a sizeable return.. but if he has to be he focal point and is the difference between a Wilkerson/Laird deal it would be awfully difficult to turn it down.
The Bone - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:31 PM EST (#135533) #
The thing about trading O-Dog is that while I love the guy, Aaron Hill is right-handed and in all likelihood going to be better offensively going forward. Moreover, while a notch below the O-Dog defensively at 2nd, Hill was well above average in his limited time at second - in fact his rf and rf9 are closer to O-Dog's lofty numbers than they are to the league average. I don't know if some of the more sophisticated defensive metrics can support the conclusion that Aaron Hill wouldn't be a large defensive decrease at 2nd.
kinguy - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:36 PM EST (#135537) #
According to the MLB Transactions page, RHP Ty Taubenheim has been named as the PTBNL in the Overbay trade. Taubenheim split last season between Brevard County in the FSL and Huntsville in the SL.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ty%20Taubenheim&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=457458
Andrew K - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:37 PM EST (#135538) #
Count me sad that Vermilyea has been taken in the rule 5. Let's hope that Boston can't keep a spot for him all year. I don't much care about the other losses, but I liked Vermilyea.
Anders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:45 PM EST (#135539) #
Blockbuster. Womack to Reds. How low has D'Angelo Jimenez's stock dropped?

I cant remember who, but I think multiple people did pieces on how Tony Womack had one of the 5 worst seasons by an outfielder of all time last year. An OPS+ of 47, 9 xbh's (and no hr's) in 300+ ab's - if the Yankee's get back more than 2 baseballs, they win this trade by a long shot.

Anders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:48 PM EST (#135540) #
The O's sign Ramon Hernadez to a 4 year, 27.25 million dollar deal

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2252475
Kieran - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 01:59 PM EST (#135541) #
So what happens to Javy Lopez? Am I missing something?
Chuck - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:06 PM EST (#135542) #
Lopez is going to be a part-time catcher, DH and 1B (though I don't know that he's ever played the position).
Mike Green - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:12 PM EST (#135544) #
The less catching he does, the better. Time has taken its toll on his defence, but his bat still deserves a place.
Jordan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 02:53 PM EST (#135554) #
Pretty quiet in Jayland today. Blair's blog hasn't changed since early this morning. I don't imagine that augurs well for additional trades.
sweat - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:18 PM EST (#135561) #
Maybe JP asked him to keep quiet for the day, so as not to drive up a FA price? JP and Blair must talk a fair amount, and I imagine most of Blairs juciest tidbits come from JP or Godfrey
huckamaniac - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:23 PM EST (#135563) #
I think I heard Wilner say on the radio the player to be named later in the Gaudin deal is Brian Stavisky an outfielder. Can anyone confirm this?

zaptom - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:23 PM EST (#135564) #
maybe he's just sleeping... he's been slaving over these winter meetings for us readers and is probably knackered.
Sherrystar - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:24 PM EST (#135565) #
Blair definitely has some inside "lines" that feed him info. He is da man when it comes to the Jays and getting scoops!

To access his blog, do you need to subscribe to the Globe online? I'm greatful to everyone who posts the links when the blog is updated.
subculture - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:33 PM EST (#135568) #
Hey NFH mentioned about writing the Star Ombudsman I think about Griffin's ridiculous and transparent writings... any more specifics on how to do this? At least 10 separate occasions I've almost cancelled my subscription b/c he ticked me off so much (plus that whole White Jays rant which I know he didn't initiate but supported). I find the Star's writers for the most part take the easy way out - offering harsh criticisms without providing praise when due, nor constructive suggestions on how to actually improve the team.

Griffin used to work for and cover the Expo's, right? Any co-incidence that a lot of the fans were alienated and stopped supporting them? Maybe he and Loria are working in tandem...
MondesiRules - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:33 PM EST (#135569) #
According to the messageboard on Bluejays.com, Nomar will be a Jay be the end of the day:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-bluejays&msg=19228.1&ctx=0
Marc Hulet - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:38 PM EST (#135570) #
The player to be named in the Gaudin deal is OF Dustin Majewski. Nice pick up.
VBF - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:44 PM EST (#135571) #
Rotoworld reports that the Jays may offer Nomar a 2 year deal at 4 million plus incentives.

I don't really think a poster who says "He heard on the radio" that Nomar is a jay, is credible, but it's possible since there is evidence to show that a deal could very well be offered.

JP _really_ likes being on the front page of ESPN.
Christopher - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:45 PM EST (#135572) #
Re: Nomar, also a brief mention from Rotoworld
binnister - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:45 PM EST (#135574) #
Wilkerson & Nomar are all well and good, but where is the love for Gregg Zuan? Is he going to have to do it all by himself again this year? Are the Bluejays so convinced that Q is ready for a full/part-time role as backstop?

The Hinskie-for-J.Lopez rumours are interesting (and would certainly be better than signing Piazza), but I can't help but feel a bit squeemish about it. I've been on a rollercoaster when it comes to my feelings about Hinskie, but I've always felt he'd be much better in a different city. I would rather he not be traded to the same division (but that might just be me). However, if he did continue to 'suck' it sure would be fun to cheer everytime he struck out against the BJ's.
Skills - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:46 PM EST (#135575) #
not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but according to ESPN's Jayson Stark the Jays and Dodger have a deal on the table: Batista for Bradley. Sounds great to me. They are also reporting that Nomar is a possibility and that the Jays are still after Wilkinson, possibly in a deal involving O-Dog. If it takes O-Dog to get Wilkinson, I say it's not worth it. His value is just so huge because we need him to backup the pitchers.
rtcaino - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:46 PM EST (#135576) #
""To access his blog, do you need to subscribe to the Globe online? I'm greatful to everyone who posts the links when the blog is updated.""

No you don't. It's always updated on the same webpage.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/

It's a shame how bad most of Toronto's writers are. It's hard to get good analysis of my favorite sports. Between here and raptors blog I survive. Where does everyone else get their fix?
VBF - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:47 PM EST (#135577) #
Rotoworld also reports that the Jays are still pursuing Wilkerson, and while they want Hudson, the Jays are trying to give them Rios and a relief pitcher.
Wedding Singer - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:49 PM EST (#135578) #
According to ESPN, the Tigers are close to finalizing a two year, $16M deal with Kenny Rogers. This on the heals of signing Todd Jones to a two year, $11M deal. That's alot of money for two guys with an average age of 39!

They are now paying Jones, Rogers and Percival a combined $19.5M in 2006. Yikes!
Jordan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:55 PM EST (#135580) #
according to ESPN's Jayson Stark the Jays and Dodger have a deal on the table: Batista for Bradley.

That would be extremely interesting. I was thinking last night that if the Dodgers were interested in Koskie, they might unload Bradley in exchange, but I can also see their interest in a low-cost innings-eater like Batista (and who'd have thought, two years ago, we'd be describing El Artista that way?).

The only real question about Milton is whether he's able to control his anger. He did a pretty decent job of it last year in LA until life with Jeff Kent finally became too much for him. He might find Toronto a little more to his liking, culture-wise, and Wells would seem to be a great role model. His bat, certainly, would be a perfect fit in right field. We shall see.

XooM - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 03:55 PM EST (#135581) #
Ahh, i posted this on the wrong thread.

Can someone give some sort of scouting report on Dustin Majewski?

Also, I was reading on the ESPN player page and their thoughts on Overbay:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6639

"Teams can win championships with guys like Overbay at first base, if they have power from their catcher, center fielder, right fielder or shortstop. For 2005 and beyond, he should remain a valuable and productive player. But because the Brewers are short on power, and top prospect Prince Fielder really can play only first base, it's unlikely that Overbay still will be at that position for Milwaukee in 2006"
VBF - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:00 PM EST (#135584) #
Playing beside a alleged rascist when you're of the the unliked race has got to be pure hell. If that's true.

When I look at our team I see the nicest, warmest guys in baseball. I don't see Bradley ruining our clubhouse--I see our clubhouse turning Bradley around and if it happens, I will be ecstatic because I know how great an effect people like Orlando and Vernon have on people. Not to mention the prospect of playing on the down lo with easy going management. Bradley would enjoy it here.
Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:04 PM EST (#135587) #
"Rotoworld reports"

I've seen this a lot recently. Rotoworld isn't actually a source, they just summarize what others have reported. It'd be like saying 'Batters Box reports that the Jays acquired A.J. Burnett' when the original information is from Jeff Blair (or whoever).

So if someone sees something at Rotoworld please at least mention who's the source that they used (and many are already doing that).

It's just a little pet peeve of mine - don't mind me.
binnister - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:06 PM EST (#135589) #
Count me as one of the people who would be happy to see Bradley here, especially if it only cost us Batista.

The best thing that such a deal would do for the Jays is that it would put a rest to all that foolish talk with the Rangers (Hudson-for-Wilkerson).

Though it might open up talks about a possible Rios/League for Laird + B- prospect deal?
JayWay - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#135594) #
Not knowing much about either of them, who is the better player: Bradley or Wilkerson?
rtcaino - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#135595) #
Rotoworld: rumors/ sources.

Nomar/ The Star
Wilkerson/ Globe
The two PTBNL/ No source cited.


OntarioMediator - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#135596) #
Bradley's a player. He gets on base, he has some pop and has some decent speed. With the guys we have in the clubhouse and playing/living in multi-diverse city like Toronto should mellow him out a bit. It also means JP doesn't have to give up Hudson in a deal to get Wilkerson.

Come on, JP, pull the trigger!
Adrock - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#135597) #
I would be very happy with a Bradley-Batista trade. I think in the right environment, Bradley will be a solid citizen--I know he's done some excellent community service (not court mandated!) and seems to be a good person when his head's not exploding on the field.

His 2005 salary was listed as $2.5M. Is that part of a long-term deal? Is he up for arbitration?

If we traded for Bradley that would likely mean we're out of the Wilkerson sweepstakes, and thus won't be trading O-Dog.

And as regards the sports media in this town--I'm with Caino. Most of my Raptors and Jays info come from this site and Raptorblog, and I try to ignore the relentless flood of Leafs-related crap. I'll get on that bandwagon in the 2nd round of the playoffs, thank you very much.
Hodgie - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:17 PM EST (#135599) #
Bradley's talent is undeniable, but so are his problems. People only change when they want to change, and after wearing out his welcome with 3 franchises already, it is pretty apparent that Bradley is what he is. Most telling, not once has he taken any responsibility for his actions, always it is someone else's fault. The Jays do not need the next Terrel Owens.
Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:18 PM EST (#135600) #
I think the Jays are playing with fire if they think Bradley will change with a 'change of scenery' and seems to go against JP's character guys.

Here's what I posted this weekend:

The Indians were just so fed up with him that they traded him after he hit .321/.421/.501 at age 25. You have to try really hard to be that good and still have a team want to dump you because they can't stand you.

This is fun to go through: http://kffl.com/player/5435/mlb.

Bradley has:
* Been frequently injured (his games played are 75, 141, 101, 98 and 77)
* Was suspended for 4 games following a crowd incident
* Called a reporter an 'Uncle Tom'
* Arrested for disorderly conduct
* Spend 3 days in jail as a result of driving away while being give a speeding ticket
* Called Kent a racist
* Had his home visited three times this summer by police investigating domestic-violence claims (although Bradley wasn't been charged in any of the incidents)

Jerks are jerks and Bradley looks like a disruptive (and injury prone) jerk. To expect him to change in a new environment is asking for trouble.
rtcaino - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:19 PM EST (#135601) #
MB Career: .269/.350/.426/.776
BW career: .256/.365/.452/.817

MB 3yr: .290/.379/.463/.842
B-Dubb 3yr: .257/.368/.456/.824

david wang - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:24 PM EST (#135606) #
I would like Bradley, he's a solid hitter, but why is everyone talking about him like he's the next great Jay.

He's only posted a .501 SLG in his highest year, never touched 20 HR, and has only had 1 full year. Again, he'd be a nice piece, but i would rather spend the money and trade for a big hitter.
Ron - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:25 PM EST (#135607) #
Good thing I hit the refresh button because I was going to post something similar to what Pistol just did.

Bradley is near the top of my list on players I don't want to see the Jays aquire. Considering JP really values character, I'm pretty sure he has little to zero interest in getting Bradley.

Charcter/issues aside, his career numbers are nothing more than decent.

Pass.
JohnL - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:25 PM EST (#135608) #
Gord Ash was on the FAN this morning just after 9:00. Said he considered Jackson the key for them. Suggested Gross might not be with the team till next year.

Landry or Stellick tried comparing (sort of) Overbay to Olerud, and then asked Ash to comment on recently-retired Olerud.

He went on to blame Gaston for Olerud "going sideways with the Jays". (Translation, "Why I made one of the classic bonehead trades of the decade".) Didn't actually name Cito, just "our staff tried turning him into something he wasn't" . Referred to "our staff" a couple of times.
David B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:26 PM EST (#135609) #
Hinske and Batista or Rios for Dunn
JayWay - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:30 PM EST (#135611) #
David,

Are you quoting a source?
David B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:32 PM EST (#135612) #
No, sorry...it's just my opinion on what the Jays should do next.
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:33 PM EST (#135613) #
Ash forgot to add ...

"... And I compounded the problem by trading him for a bag of baseballs."

The propensity to blame others for misfortune is the surest sign of weak character I know.

Could you imagine Whitet Herzog blaming his "staff" when asked about a trade he made?





timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#135614) #
Add me to the list of people who don't want Bradley here.

I like the idea of Garciaparra though, I hope there's some truth to that rumor. He might not be such an injury risk if he's DH-ing.

Someone posted Hinske to the O's for a prospect. What's the source? I already like that trade no matter what comes back the other way.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:36 PM EST (#135615) #
I would think not, because we would do that yesterday. With that said, maybe JP thinks Bradley could make a Carl Everett type turn around to help a contender. I think you need to take a risk or two with the likes of Nomar, Bradley (I know this is a much bigger one), also I think theres something to be said for having the right mix of guys which is another one of the intangibles I think O Dog brings (not to mention the penchant to make big plays), 9 clones personality wise I'm not sure it would work.

And, isn't it funny how a thread always gets out of hand in number of posts, and the subject matter rarely fits under the appropriate title. ; )
binnister - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:36 PM EST (#135616) #
Hinske and Batista or Rios for Dunn

I agree. The Jay's should make this trade.

Of course, there's no way in Hades that the Reds do that, though.

OntarioMediator - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:36 PM EST (#135617) #
I personally buy into the notion that Bradley would be benefit by having a change of scenery playing in Toronto. The Jays have a lot of good character guys in the clubhouse (Wells, Koskie, Hudson, Zaun) and are solid citizens, and hopefully it would rub off. I would be willing to take a flyer on him.
As for getting into fistacuffs with teammates - he did so with Jeff Kent, so if anyone remembers, got into a fight with Barry Bonds on the Giants bench a few years back. He's a jerk, but that talent is very good. When healthy, he can put up some very good numbers.

The only other option I see is to wait for the dust to settle to see what other pitchers get before attempting to deal Batista. I mean, Kenny Rogers got 8 million a season from Detroit, Milwood's reportedly going to received 11 million a season from Seattle, and I'm sure Matt Morris will receive a generous contract offer as well. When most of the better picthing free agents are off the market, Batista's market value should vastly increase.
Kingsley Zissou - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:36 PM EST (#135618) #
Can somebody PLEASE, in plain english, give me ONE good reason why ANYONE would have ANY interest in aquiring Wilkerson? He HAS to be one of the most overrated players always popping up in rumours.
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:36 PM EST (#135619) #
Hinske and Batista or Rios for Dunn I'd like Bill Gates to deposit 5 million dollars in my bank account. In other words - not going to happen on this planet anytime soon.
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:39 PM EST (#135620) #
Wilkerson is a good hitter and isn't expensive. Next question.
Paul D - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:39 PM EST (#135621) #
I heard Ash this morning, and I didn't get the impression that he was blaming anyone in particular, he was including himself in the blame when he talked about how the organization made a mistake. It was all pretty good natured.

Another point:
OPS+ - Last 3 Years
BW: 105/128/104
MB: 151/108/121

Career
BW: 111
MB: 104
Craig B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:43 PM EST (#135625) #
Can somebody PLEASE, in plain english, give me ONE good reason why ANYONE would have ANY interest in aquiring Wilkerson? He HAS to be one of the most overrated players always popping up in rumours.

I'll give you four in one sentence : Wilkerson is a good and versatile fielder with fine power who gets on base very consistently.

XooM - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:45 PM EST (#135628) #
I was wondering, does anyone have a link to ESPN's Jayson Stark's report about the proposed Bradley deal?

Teams can win championships with guys like Overbay at first base, if they have power from their catcher, center fielder, right fielder or shortstop.
Also, on my post above the point I meant to make was that: ironically the Jays have been getting below-average production in those positions except for maybe Catcher and CF. But all that could change by the time the season starts.
Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:49 PM EST (#135630) #
I love rate stats as much as anyone, but when comparing Bradley and Wilkerson you have to consider the games played.

The past three years:
Wilkerson – 146, 160, 148 = 454 games played
Bradley – 101, 141, 75 = 317 games played
JohnL - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 04:53 PM EST (#135634) #
I heard Ash this morning, and I didn't get the impression that he was blaming anyone in particular, he was including himself in the blame when he talked about how the organization made a mistake. It was all pretty good natured. Yes, it was good-natured, and he wasn't ranting about anyone, but twice he did say "our staff" tried turning Olerud into what he wasn't. That sounds like pushing the blame to someone else. I'd think an appropriate comment for someone in charge of any organization or group would be "WE tried changing...". The old "buck stops here" approach. Not a big deal, I just thought it interesting how he seemed to pass the buck. And he might be right, maybe Cito did mess up Olerud.
Frank Markotich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:01 PM EST (#135637) #
Well, if Cincinnati won't take Hinske and Batista for Dunn, I'd be prepared to throw in......

Jason Arnold!!!
Newton - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:02 PM EST (#135638) #
Wasn't there an Olerud for Big Unit rumour floating around sometime in or around 94?



King Ryan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:14 PM EST (#135639) #
[Wilkerson] HAS to be one of the most overrated players always popping up in rumours.

The player he was traded for is far, far more overrated, and pops up in far more trade rumours.

Magpie - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:30 PM EST (#135640) #
Honey, I'm home! What's new?

Oh.

As one of Dave Bush's biggest fans (since when is a man whose FB hits 92 mph a soft-tossing righty, anyway?), who believes very much in his upside, I am naturally sad to see him go. But for the most part, it doesn't matter. You trade from strength, and depth in the rotation is this team's strength. Jackson is a nice prospect, but he's still just a prospect. Gross may be a useful major leaguer... but the focus should always be on what you get,not what you give. (Don't apply this rule to life, by the way!)

While Overbay is one of my favourites anyway, and he is an upgrade on either Hillenbrand or Hinske, I'd like this a whoile lot more if he could play RF. He would be a big upgrade there - at 1B/DH,not so much.

I would assume that if another shoe drops, Hinske (because he's a LH hitter) is most likely to move on, and very possibly something is in the works. In which case, for those of you who never want to see him DH here again, here are the 2005 numbers for Toronto designated hitters:

NAME	         G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
Eric Hinske	42 104 18 32  9  1  1 46   4 12 23  0  2 .308 .400 .442 .842
S. Hillenbrand	33 128 21 41  9  0  2 56  12  6 15  2  1 .320 .383 .438 .820
Aaron Hill	34 117 16 30  9  2  2 49  12  8 18  0  0 .256 .315 .419 .734
Corey Koskie	19  69  3 11  6  0  1 20   9  6 24  0  0 .159 .221 .290 .511
zaptom - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:35 PM EST (#135642) #
They hit 4 home runs at DH all season. Mmmmm... fearsome power.
Jonny German - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:37 PM EST (#135643) #
Goes well with fearsome math skills.
Wildfire - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:42 PM EST (#135645) #
HAHA
zaptom - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 05:48 PM EST (#135646) #
Oh gosh. Thats awful. My bad.
timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:11 PM EST (#135649) #
XooM,
You have to pay for "ESPN Insider" to be able to read the post, but here it is in it's entirety:

"The Dodgers and Blue Jays have a deal on the table that would send outfielder Milton Bradley from L.A. to Toronto for pitcher Miguel Batista, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports"
Andrew - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:12 PM EST (#135650) #
I don't know how much I'd like to pick up Bradley. On the one hand his numbers are pretty-looking, and statistically he'd be a pretty significant upgrade over Rios. But I think his baggage goes deeper than just feuding with Jeff Kent. I get the impression that the Game has had this massive chip on his shoulder from before the dawn of time, and a change of scenery won't really change any of the real issues behind his psychological problems. To me, he just doesn't seem that stable. You have to be pretty disconnected to pull something like that ball-throwing trick. And who knows what he could react to in Toronto? Maybe he could take issue with something like the "White Jays", or feud with Gregg Zaun's conservative values. It's easy to say that by taking him out of the negative surroundings in L.A. we'd be doing him well, but how much of that negativity was created by the Game and Kent themselves? I think it's just really risky to move him here and expect good team chemistry. Not to mention Bradley's problems with injury.

That being said, if the risk in question was one of Batista for Bradley... I'd take it. Those numbers are still really good.
King Ryan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:22 PM EST (#135653) #
I've seen this a lot recently. Rotoworld isn't actually a source, they just summarize what others have reported. It'd be like saying 'Batters Box reports that the Jays acquired A.J. Burnett' when the original information is from Jeff Blair (or whoever). So if someone sees something at Rotoworld please at least mention who's the source that they used (and many are already doing that).

The thing is, though, that rotoworld doesn't always cite a source. For example, this is copied verbatim from their page:

Blue Jays acquired outfielder Dustin Majewski from the Athletics to complete the Chad Gaudin trade. Majewski, who was available in the Rule 5 draft, hit .272/.348/.477 with 13 SB for Single-A Stockton last season. There's a chance that he could have a career as a reserve, but he'll need to step it up in Double-A next season. Dec. 8 - 3:06 pm et

So, I don't know. Maybe rotoworld is a source?

Anyays, I like Milton Bradley. It seems to me like his "character" issues are overblown, and he's not a bad guy unless someone pisses him off. I would think it's unlikely though, as JP might not want to have a guy of his reputation, anyways.

Four Seamer - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:31 PM EST (#135654) #
he's not a bad guy unless someone pisses him off

That is about as textbook an example of damning someone with faint praise as you are ever going to see!

Anyways, if he's too much of a headcase to mellow his act in chilled-out SoCal, I can't imagine the surroundings here will change him much. He might be worth all the baggage, if the market for Batista doesn't materialize to the point where you get a dependable outfield upgrade back in exchange, but I'm not particularly inclined to take the risk. It's an interesting thought, though, and not one to be dismissed out of hand.

AWeb - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:34 PM EST (#135655) #
I thought the RBI numbers for Hinske couldn't be right as a dH as posted above, so I checked. Espn has him with 8 as a DH, in 114 ABs, with a 316/406/474 line. How do you end up with just 8 RBIs in that situation? He must've been terrible with Runners on base, right?

Well, ESPN doesn't have splits like that available by lineup position, but with runners on this year, he was 313/391/578, in 211 at bats. Strangely, he was a Bonds-ian 413/495/739 in 92 ABs with a runner at first only. Runners in scoring position, he was basically at his season averages.

Hinske seems to have a major problem and it's been around for his entire career. With no one on base, from 2003-2005, in 837 ABs, he's at .217/.289/.357. 2005, he was a Womack-ian .222/.284/.312 in 266 ABs. I'm not sure what to make of this, but I'm not writing an article, I don't need a cohesive closing statement. I can just trail off....
R Billie - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:40 PM EST (#135656) #
That being said, if the risk in question was one of Batista for Bradley... I'd take it. Those numbers are still really good.

I think this is the point Andrew. Will one bad apple spoil the whole bunch? More importantly, what could we realistically expect to get for Miguel Batista? You move him out, save some salary, get a more talented player back who might be moveable to someone else or might be a significant upgrade in RF.

Don't get me wrong, Bradley does sound like a nightmare and that's really a shame given his talent. I'm sure JP is thinking long and hard about this one but it could be that he's either decided to brave the risk (contending that a team full of good people around him might change things) or has another trigger he could pull to send Bradley someplace else where a CF is needed.

Texas springs to mind. What if you can send Bradley with a pitcher there to get back Wilkerson and Gonzalez? Wilkerson goes to right, Gonzalez and Rios to the minors providing capable insurance, while Overbay and Hillenbrand man 1B and DH for the time being.

If you can combine that with getting Garciaparra's bat to shuffle around between 3B, SS, 2B, DH, etc, I think you're in some serious business should Burnett pan out.

Magpie - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 06:55 PM EST (#135657) #
he's too much of a headcase to mellow his act in chilled-out SoCal

Ah, but how mellow is it? Really? Isn't this where "road rage" was practically invented? Hours upon hours on the freeway, stuck in traffic, as time wastes away...

CaramonLS - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:14 PM EST (#135658) #
Remember the 2004 season, Milton was the talk of the town for starting to get his attitude turned around in LA, was one of the vetern leaders on the team.

Then Jeff Kent comes along and messes everything up.

I don't know, from everything I've heard, Kent is a real jerkoff who can rub a lot of people the wrong way. I really don't see anyone in the Jays organization who would be stepping on Milton's toes.

I just think the Rewards > Risks in this case, and those rewards can be pretty darn good.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:34 PM EST (#135659) #
I tend to agree but you can hardly blame it all on Kent... the fact is the guy is extremely volatile, and any little thing might set him off. And there's no question it is a big risk, which can be a big disruption to a team trying to make the leap. But he could also prove to be an x factor in the positive sense though. Some athletes are lost causes like TO while others like just say Rasheed Wallace or Ricky Davis (who wasn't nearly as bad off court as Milton, but a big headcase on it) seem to have turned things around, and the Celts got him at a very cheap cost, considering that he is an all star type talent. It's a delicate situation though, you have to get a handle on how to treat such players and if there is any hope in turning them around (I think it's important that you speak to the right people in gauging whether he's as bad as he seems). Unfortunately Milton seems to have a **** the world mentality, and it isn't just immaturity on the court like shooting at your own rim to record a triple double that one can harness into positive energy. He seems to be a loose cannon in every sense of the word, who needs someone or something to provide him with a revelation of sorts.
jayfanbrooklyn - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:37 PM EST (#135660) #
maybe hinske will get something bigger than lopez from the orioles such as tejada

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ap9DW7iW4omZ63ydqOUSCNc5nYcB?slug=ap-orioles-tejada&prov=ap&type=lgns

maybe we give them hill as well </wishful thinking>
Anders - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:37 PM EST (#135661) #
Miggy wants out of Baltimore, according to...well, himself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2252946
timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:41 PM EST (#135662) #
Anders,
i just read that and was going to post but you beat me to it. I REALLY hope he doesn't go to Boston. They need a SS and have the dough. Interesting how Tejada mentioned that Baltimore didn't sign anyone and isn't going in the right direction which is why he wants out. Maybe he'd like to be a Jay!!!?
VBF - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 07:54 PM EST (#135663) #
I've done many things with this team and I haven't seen results, and the other teams are getting stronger while the Orioles have not made any signings to strengthen the club

Gee, I wonder what team he's talking about?

Tejeda made 11 million last year, so I can only guess that he's owed about 12-13 million this year. We still have a little left and if you can shed Shea's and Batista's contract, there might be enough to cover that contract. While I think they'd be ridiculous to give him to an AL East rival, surely they can be seduced with some young pitching which they do crave.

Mike D - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:00 PM EST (#135664) #
No need to guess, VBF.

2006: $10M plus $2M signing bonus
2007: $12M
2008: $13M
2009: $13M
2010: $2M deferred signing bonus
2011: $2M deferred signing bonus
Nick - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:16 PM EST (#135666) #
Tejada for Manny?
Waveburner - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:44 PM EST (#135668) #
There has been great discussion in this thread and many good reasons for making this trade from a Jays standpoint. The only argument I don't get is the one that says we have no room in the rotation for Bush. The Jays have 7 (possibly 9) starters for next year. Doc, AJ, Gus, Lilly, Bush, Towers and Batista (McGowan+Downs). They could have dealt a combination of Chacin, Lilly or Batista and still kept room for Bush. I can make the rotation for the next few seasons including Bush:

2006:
Doc, AJ, Lilly, Towers, Bush
2007:
Doc, AJ, Towers, Bush, vacancy
2008:
Doc, AJ, Bush, vacancy, vacancy

Etc...or you deal Lilly and Batista and keep Chacin. Now maybe the Brewers would only do the deal for Bush, I have no idea. I just don't get why people would use the reasoning that we have no room for Bush. We do, we just chose to keep our other pitchers instead. Time will tell if Chacin regresses, Lilly continues to be a headcase and Bush flourishes. Or some other combination. I think it's obvious I'm a big Bush fan, and that's why this deal stings. I agree though that this trade improves the Jays and deals from an area of strength, I'm just not overly happy with the return. But I could certainly turn out to be wrong.
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 08:53 PM EST (#135669) #
If McGowan and Rosario had not blown their arms Bush would never even have been in the majors. Period.

AT BEST, Bush is Towers, maybe slightly better.

McGowan, Purcey and Romero (and others) all have a higher top end. Rosario looks like he won't make it back from his pre-surgery level. Bush is exactly what JP wants...lots of OK guys that can be spun a few at a time for a really good guy.
Ryan B. - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:28 PM EST (#135672) #
Unless Uncle Ted ups the payroll again to $85M annually, which I think is the perfect level to win with, Miggy won't be coming to T.O. No way can the Jays have three players making over $10M and another making just under it. And don't forget Vernon Wells will need a raise in two years, so let's not get carried away with all these big contracts.
Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:30 PM EST (#135673) #
I don't think we need to be too concerned with Bradley, according to Blair:

Ricciardi had only a few discussions yesterday. What he did not do, contrary to a report on ESPN, was put a deal on the table that would see Miguel Batista traded for Milton Bradley.

"We talked, but we're not going to do that," Ricciardi said.

I'd rather not see Bradley here. When JP arrived he took great pains to shake up the clubhouse and eliminate any malcontents or underachievers. He's done a terrific job at reshaping the team's character and building what he called in Verducci's SI feature last year a team of guys who would play hard in an empty ballpark. If you had to make a list of the 10 biggest clubhouse pains in the game, Bradley would have to be on there somewhere.

Hey, there's an idea for a dull winter's thread: biggest clubhouse cancers. I'll start:

  1. Jeff Kent
  2. Barry Bonds
  3. Milton Bradley
  4. Manny Ramirez
  5. Jose Guillen
  6. Raphael Palmeiro
  7. Aubrey Huff
  8. Carl Everett
  9. AJ Pierzinski
  10. Raul Mondesi
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:36 PM EST (#135674) #
OK listen up pardners...

Bush 24 starts W5 L11
McGowan 7 starts W1 L3
AJ gets these 31 starts; will he be better than W6 L14?
DAH.....

Scott Downs had 13 starts W4 L3
Halliday got 19 starts W12 L4
Roy gets Scott's 13 starts will he go better than W4 L3
DAH....

Hilly 291 343 449
Wells 269 320 463
O'vbay 276 367 449
Is this a good to great addition?
DAH.....

The Jays BLEW 21 saves last year!!
Will BJ, Speier, Schoenweis, Fraso, Chulk, Downs, McGowan, Marcum, League etc. etc. blow 21?
I don't think so...

Even without any more bats this is a 90+ win team. On top of which the rest of the AL East is self destructing.

Oh gawd I can't wait for April!!!
Wildrose - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:40 PM EST (#135676) #
The thing is, though, that rotoworld doesn't always cite a source. For example, this is copied verbatim from their page:

Actually I don't mind Rotoworld. My understanding is that Aaron Gleeman is making a lot of the editorial comments found below the original story, and in my humble opinion , the boy can write.

timpinder - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:47 PM EST (#135677) #
There's a good article by Jason Stark on ESPN, summing up the meetings. He puts the Jays in the "Winners" category. Says if they can add any two of Wilkerson, Mench, Garciaparra or Piazza, and Halladay and Burnett can pitch 400 innings, "Watch out".

I'd link it if I knew how, but I'm not computer savvy.
daryn - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:49 PM EST (#135678) #
by my calculations, the Jays Roster is now at about 75Mil

but that includes
Lilly 4.5 (est)
Batista 4.75
Hillenbrand 5.5 (est)
Hinske 4.3
Koskie 6.25

Out of that whole list, we need a DH and a Starter... (if we play Hill and Adams)

wouldn't it be nice to have 2-$10Mil guys?? or 3-8 Mil guys added to the roster???



Ron - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:50 PM EST (#135679) #
Let's see if the Red Sox and O's have the balls to make a ManRam for Miggy swap.

Hey the D-Rays and Jays showed they had stones when they completed the infamous Cash for Gaudin trade...
robertdudek - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 09:57 PM EST (#135680) #
I'd like to know what kind of clubhouse cancer the best hitter God ever made could possibly be. Maybe it's the type of clubhouse cancer that transforms an average team into an NL championship squad. Sign me up for one of those cancers.

If Barry Bonds is a clubhouse cancer, so was Babe Ruth.

Rich - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:14 PM EST (#135681) #
So I take it Bonds wouldn't be on your list then?
RhyZa - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:19 PM EST (#135682) #
Barry wouldn't make mine, and I don't think Manny would either or he'd be a lot lower at least.
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:19 PM EST (#135683) #
I would trade a lot of everybody for Miguel Tejada.
Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:32 PM EST (#135686) #
Saw Blair on the Score.

JP still after Wilkerson but Daniels is still gun shy as a new GM

After JP says hello in a meeting, his next sentence is "Hinske could be available"

Jays are $3 mil over budget

Jays would like to trade two of Hillenbrand, Hinske or Batista
Craig B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:36 PM EST (#135687) #
Ruth *was* a clubhouse cancer. So was Satchel Paige, at least for most of his career.

That didn't stop guys from fighting to be traded to the same team as them, mind you...

As for Miguel Tejada, I would trade almost anything for him.
Pistol - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:47 PM EST (#135688) #
"As for Miguel Tejada, I would trade almost anything for him."

Wells, Hill & McGowan?

Fawaz - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 10:50 PM EST (#135689) #
At the press conference welcoming Milton Bradley to the 'family', J.P. hands the man a bat, points out Baker and Griffin and mentions the White Jays. The trade instantly becomes the best of J.P.'s career.

I would like to see the trade happen. If it works out, the Jays add a potent hitter to outfield without sacrificing much defence. If he acts up, his talent still makes him marketable to other teams (am I the only one a little surprised that he hasn't yet been linked to a certain AL East team with a gaping hole in centrefield?). The risk, in my mind, is injury, not character.

If they pursue Nomar, I hope it's not for the outfield as has been suggested. The man keeps injuring himself running the basepaths; how is he going to handle dead sprints in the outfield on a regular basis?
Craig B - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:01 PM EST (#135691) #
Wells, Hill & McGowan?

Yes.

I'm not saying that would be a good baseball trade - it wouldn't. I'm a huge fan of Tejada's.

Mike D - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:15 PM EST (#135693) #
Jays would like to trade two of Hillenbrand, Hinske or Batista

By which he means, I assume, Batista plus one of Hillenbrand or Hinske. Trading Hillenbrand and Hinske and keeping Batista around would still leave the Jays with a surplus big-league pitcher. You can keep Batista around as a mid-season trading chip, but how do you showcase him for a trade? I just can't picture Batista's role on this club.
Nolan - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:26 PM EST (#135694) #

I don't post here too frequently, but I'm here almost everyday and I must say that I really appreciate seeing Coach and Mr. Dudek posting again

I found a list of rumours and leads regarding potential signings and trades here. There is no real author or source listed so take this with a salt shaker. Some interesting confirmations on the Jays interest in Nomar, Thomas and Reggie Sanders as well as the idea that Dunn is still being shopped (possibly for the O's Bedard). Surely the Jays could top this proposal (unfounded as it may be....).

I've been strolling through lists of outfielders with the idea of finding some overlooked players who would help the Jays, but the options seem limited. Chad Tracy has been mentioned and I wonder if the Backs would deal him if they could get Luis Gonzalez's (11.5 Mil in 2006) contract off the books. Say Tracy (who can play rightfield) and Luis for Rios, Pitcher(s) (Lilly? Batista? League? Downs?) and prospects? Even considering that the Backs seem to want shed contracts, is it fair?

While a lot here are giddy at the notion that Hinske may be traded to the O's, I wonder if the Jays would be better off keeping him and trading Shea instead. It was argued in another thread that the difference between Hillenbrand and Hinske is not as large as it may seem. Taking into account that Shea may have pretty good trade value, especially in contrast with Hinske, it may be smarter to instead hang on to Hinske. This is only workable if Shea can be packaged in a trade that nets another bat. The rumour has bee floating that the Ranger's Blalock may be headed to the Twins, potentially opening up a situation where Shea + others could head to Texas for Wilkerson.

Mark - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:29 PM EST (#135696) #
I am not going to look it up because I am lazy but a better indication would be to include what the Blue jays record was in the other 8 games Bush pitched but did not get the decision and the other 6 games Downs pitched without getting a decision. If the went 14-0 or 12-2 in those games than Burnett and a healthy Halladay will not make a huge difference.

BTW I lived in LA last summer and followed the dodgers and I can tell you Milton Bradley really was doing a lot, including taking anger management classes, to fit in on the team and not be a distraction. He was also popular in the community and very charitable. I think Kent really rubbed him (as he does with a lot of people) the wrong way. I think that in a fun relaxed clubhouse with guys like Hudson, Halladay, Wells, Cat, RJ and a manager like Gibby that Bradley would be fine. Besides if you can get that type of player for so little you almost have to make the deal. If it is between Batista and Hudson for Wilkerson or Batista for Bradley the choice is easy. If the worst situation happens you just cut him and return to the Cat/reed platoon.
Glevin - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:37 PM EST (#135698) #
Actually, from what was said on the Score, Batista would be the preferred keeper which would give them six viable starters. It might be like a basketball situation where Batista could be the sixth man. It's not a bad idea IMO, as pitchers get hurt all the time. Obviously, Hinske is the guy they'd love to trade.
6-4-3 - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:40 PM EST (#135699) #
Bush's no decisions (team record is 3-5)

Lost 6-3 Oakland (Bush gives up 2 runs in 7 innings)
Lost 4-3 New York (Bush gives up 3 in 7)
Lost 5-3 Chicago (Bush goes 5, gives up 1)
Win 12-9 KC (Bush goes 3.2, 4 ER)
Lost 3-2 Minny (8 innings, 3 ER)
Won 9-6 Boston (3 innings, 3 ER)
Won 2-1 Angels (8.2, 1 ER)
Lost 9-8 Detroit (4.2, 7 ER)

Downs' no decisions (team record is 4-2)

Won 8-5 NY (3.1 IP, 4 ER)
Won 4-3 Angels (6.2 IP, 3 ER)
Won 4-3 TB (7 IP, 3 ER)
Won 7-4 Baltimore (4.1, 3 ER)
Lost 7-5 Seattle (5 IP, 3 ER)
Lost 5-4 Boston (5 IP, 2 ER)

So the Jays went 7-7 in their no decisions. Bush's no decisions were pretty good, Downs just didn't have the stamina in his.
Glevin - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:44 PM EST (#135701) #
I always hated that adage because, well, it's just wrong. Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips? Well, Colon at the time was by far the best player and that trade was beyond dreadful. Curt Schilling, Curt Harnisch, and Steve Finley were all below Glenn Davis as a player at that time and that was one of the worst trades ever. Garry Templeton for Ozzie Smith? It goes on and on of course...Why would you say that overbay has the potential to be a 20-30 HR guy? He will be 29 this year and per 162 games is averaging 15 Hrs in his career.
Smaj - Thursday, December 08 2005 @ 11:49 PM EST (#135702) #
YEAR OBP SLG

2003 .336 .472
2004 .360 .534
2005 .349 .515

Career .338 .477

*Age-The Player will be 29 years old come opening day
*Durability-He has missed 5 games in 7 years!!!!
*Position-Shortstop
*Bats-3rd or 4th with power (13th in AL SLG%)
*Intangibles-fierce competitor; leader; a gamer; JP is familiar with him.

Obviously the player is Miguel Tejada & he wants traded to an East Coast team & escape Baltimore (ESPN).

*Red Flag #1-Tejada makes roughly $12M/year

Is Tejada a possibility from a Jays perspective?

Lets examine the salary issue first. With Tejada earning $12M/year a straight acquisition for prospects only brings the Jays 2006 estimated payroll to approximately $88M...not going to happen!.....BUT

The O's have reportedly expressed interest in Eric Hinkse(Ken Rosenthal suggests interest in Hinske) & his $4.325M salary. The O's want pitching & Batista would have to be a piece of the puzzle from a Jays perspective (O's could flip Batista elsewhere if they desire quite easily I assume) & his $4.75M salary for 2006.
Combined this equals $9.075M in salary.
The difference vs. Tejada's 2006 salary is $2.925M for 2006's budget.
Thus, the Jays estimated payroll with Tejada less Hinske & Batista = $79.01M for 2006. I think the Jays have some payroll flexibility if the situation presented itself, like Tejada.

*Red Flag #2-What would it take to acquire Tejada?

A lot! But the Jays may be a good fit with the O's.

Jays could offer a starting pitcher in Batista (well priced, versatile & expiring contract); Hinske as a corner IF'er; a young SS in Aaron Hill (another $350K in salary); a young bullpen arm in Chulk (another $350K in salary); a minor league lefty fireballer in Dave Purcey; a fine looking young hitting prospect in Adam Lind & a Leo Mazzone dream in Brandon League.

It may not be enough immediate help for the O's to consider seriously. Long term it should be an appealing package of players.

*Red Flag #3 - Tejada's contract runs through 2009.

It is substantial salary particularily when added to financial committments to AJ, BJ & hopefully Doc. On the flip side there must be some budgetary planning in place by Rogers beyond the 2007 season in providing 5 year deals to free agents, thus $75-$80M per year may be a viable annual target going forward.

The assumption is the addition of Tejada pushes the Jays to playoff contention which equals greater revenue streams in attendance, advertising & concessions etc.

Conclusion:

Tejada is an impact player, both on the field & in the clubhouse. The man has a fire in his belly to win & is a known commodity to JP from the A's days.
Tejada is the middle of the order bat required by the Jays (13th in the AL in SLG% in 2005 & 31st in OBP).Simply put the man is a ballplayer who loves baseball & a massive will to win.

I beleive JP will be picking up the phone & calling Mike Flannigan!

Lets hear the naysayers arguments!!!!!


Glevin - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:00 AM EST (#135703) #
I am not sure if it has been mentioned here yet, but Bush had an incredibly tough pitching schedule. Compare it to Towers who pitched 6 games against TB and only 4 against NY and BOS. Bush pitched 7 against NYY and Bos and only 2 against TB. That is, Bush pitched 29% of his starts against Bos and NYY and only 8% against TB. You flip those starts and Bush's numbers look a lot better and Towers, a lot worse.
zaptom - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:09 AM EST (#135704) #
Realistically, why on earth would Baltimore want to make the Jays as strong as the Yanks and Red Sox, and then play them how many times in a year? The incestual trading of superstars within a division doesn't happen for a reason.

That said. He's the man and would make a heck of a Jay.
Cristian - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:10 AM EST (#135705) #
I don't think there is a naysayer argument against Tejada. It's worth a phone call but it seems unlikely for a number of reasons, none of them to do with Tejada as a player.

1. Just because he's asked for a trade doesn't mean the O's have to trade him.

2. It's unlikely the O's would trade him to a division rival.

3. Tejada signed in a down market and thus is a great value. He's locked in at less than Furcal money. Until 2009 I think? Obviously he's a better player than Furcal.

4. The Jays cannot afford him without dumping a bunch of salary. And this isn't as easy as saying the O's would take Hinske and Batista.
robertdudek - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:43 AM EST (#135707) #
And here I thought that cancer was something bad. I guess you learn something new everyday.
Newton - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:55 AM EST (#135709) #
Tejada has a tonne of trade value at the moment, so much so that it might actually be wise for the O's to trade him.

Not sure if this story will have legs but if it does a trade to an AL East rival would, on its face, seem unlikely.

Although in a straight up old fashioned value for value trade dealing within a division based on comparative advantage might not be a bad idea for the Jay's and O's as both clubs attempt to catch up to the Red Sox and Yanks; they could act as a peloton of sorts.

Jays give the O's a young middle infielder (or 2) and some young MLB ready pitching (ie. 1 or 2 of our best), O's give the Jays the lineup anchor we so covet.

It could actually pay dividends for both clubs in 2006, with a clear immediate advantage to the Jays, while the Jays would suffer in the longer term. Given that the O's really don't have much of a shot this year it would actually be to their advantage to impair the Jays of 08.




ChoCoPie - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:32 AM EST (#135711) #
Just wondering about Miguel Tejada...

I thought I heard the sharp decrease in power production last season could've been because of the tougher steriod testings. His second half stats are not Miggy like .... Only 9 HR after the all star break last season.

Or was he injured last season??? (Sorry bringing this up if he was injured ^.^)

Magpie - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 05:42 AM EST (#135718) #
By the way, here's my completely irrational reason for liking Overbay, posted when the Brewers played here on June 19:

a nice moment from before yesterday's game. A choir came out and sung the two anthems. The players stood on the dugout, shuffled their feet, and put their caps on when it was over. Everyone except Lyle Overbay, who gave them a nice and respectful little bit of applause first. I thought that was sweet, and will cheer for him from this day forward.

And now I get to cheer for him every day!

Sheldon - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 07:03 AM EST (#135719) #
Tejada is on one of them iron man streaks, so it may be the case that he had lingering injuries and didn't bother to get any rest.
Pistol - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 08:29 AM EST (#135723) #
"And now I get to cheer for him every day!"

No cheering in the press box!
Chuck - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 08:33 AM EST (#135724) #
No cursing at the Y.
Craig B - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 08:52 AM EST (#135727) #
And here I thought that cancer was something bad. I guess you learn something new everyday.

Robert, I'd like you to meet metaphor. Metaphor, this is Robert. I'm sure you two will hit it off splendidly.

Craig B - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 08:57 AM EST (#135728) #
Anyway, to clarify my point... the fact that both Ruth and Paige were terrible teammates who drove their fellow players to distraction, and yet both were winners wherever they went, shows what being a "clubhouse cancer" means. The same goes for Bonds, and the other guys on that list.
Jordan - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 09:07 AM EST (#135729) #
With regard to Miguel Tejada: (a) Baltimore has almost no reason to trade him to anyone, (b) Baltimore has zero reason to trade him to Toronto, and (c) the Blue Jays have no reason to enrich a division rival with the kind of talent required to land him. Would you really want to face Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill and Dustin McGowan in Oriole uniforms 19 times a year?

Tejada will get over this and remain an Oriole.
Ryan Day - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 09:38 AM EST (#135731) #
At any rate, I think there's a difference between players who don't have the most sparkling personalities and a guy like Bradley, whose temper has lead to ejections and suspensions. That sort of behaviour has a tangible, detrimental effect on a team.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 09:50 AM EST (#135733) #
I know I'm in the minority on this one, but sometimes I think it's fun to have a volatile guy on your team of choice -- now if it's a matter of being entertained by the guy and losing games because he's a distration, well, I'd vote against acquiring him. But the 2004 Jays would have been way more fun if occasionally someone overturned a bucket of balls onto the field.

Lou Pinella angriy taking the base with him into the clubhouse was one of my all-time favourite baseball moments, mind you.
timpinder - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 09:50 AM EST (#135734) #
Regarding the Hinske to the Orioles rumor. Would Baltimore be willing to eat ALL of Hinske's contract, or would somebody like Rios have to be included for that to happen, or would J.P. have to eat some salary? I haven't seen anything on this potential trade.

I'd ideally like to see Batista, Hillenbrand AND Hinske traded, which would clear enough money to sign Garciaparra at $5 million or so a year and bring back Wilkerson at cost for Batista. The Jays would have a pretty solid lineup.

Named For Hank - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 09:58 AM EST (#135735) #
I'd have to think that Hinske to the Orioles would be like Hillenbrand to the Jays -- if the Jays aren't paying some of Hinske's contract, I can't imagine that they'll get back anything better than what they traded to get Hillenbrand (which was not very much).

So if anything good is going to come back in that potential deal, there would have to be either other players or money thrown in from the Jays side.
Jim - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:01 AM EST (#135736) #
Volatile is fun, Milton Bradley is dangerous.
Newton - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:10 AM EST (#135738) #
If the Orioles actually want Hinske at full price I'd deal him for a Cal Ripken Jr. Bobblehead, although I doubt they'd be willing to give us one in the original packaging.
timpinder - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:22 AM EST (#135741) #
I don't like what I'm reading in the Dallas newspapers this morning from "www.prosportsdaily.com/mlb/blue-jays/rumors.html"; A couple of Texas newspapers have mentioned a trade that was discussed for Wilkerson for Batista, League and Hudson. I hope that doesn't happen, seems like a pretty lopsided trade.

Both the Toronto Sun and the Dallas newspapers said that the groundwork was in place so that a trade would likely happen. I just hope we don't give up that much. I like Adams just like I was a Bush fan, but I think Hudson should stay and Adams should go. Hudson's defense is too valuable with the pitching team J.P.'s assembled.
timpinder - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:32 AM EST (#135742) #
timpinder - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:36 AM EST (#135746) #
The second one's the correct link. It's a great website, you get Jays rumors from the opposing team's sports writer's views.
garvin4ever - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:51 AM EST (#135747) #
Jeff Kent as number one? I think you have to go with Mr. Bonds with this one.
Leigh - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:52 AM EST (#135748) #
Re: Hinske and Hillenbrand.

I would like to go on record as saying that Hinske is better than Hillenbrand.

Hinske is younger, better defensively, and more productive (once you normalize Hillenbrand's 22 hits by pitch last season to his previous career high (12)). His peripherals portend better numbers than do Hillenbrand's.

If a GM wants Hinske, JP should offer up Hillenbrand instead.
dmac - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:02 AM EST (#135752) #
If the Jays trade Hudson, I'm not watching them this year.

Also, Wilkerson is brutal. He's not even worth Batista.
Newton - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:06 AM EST (#135753) #
I'd trade Hillenbrand for a bobblehead as well.

At this point if any team asks for either guy in a trade the Jays willingly toss them in needing nothing in return but attempting, of course, to extract whatever value they can.

Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:07 AM EST (#135754) #
If the Jays trade O-Dawg with Halladay and Burnett on top of their rotation... well, I'm not even going to consider the anger I will feel... I would really like to have Wilkerson, and would deal any 3 of Batista, League, Hillenbrand, Hinske, and Rios for him but the O-Dog is the most untouchable player not being touted as an ace starting pitcher on the club, in my book...Would you trade Chacin straight up for Wilkerson? I think I'd do that too...
georgekeip - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:17 AM EST (#135758) #
I have noticed something in the trades that JP makes specifically with regards to the prospects he gives up....and I was wondering what you guys think...

It seems to me that the prospects that JP trades are the ones that they push very aggressively. Seems to me that they decide quickly which prospects they want to keep and which ones they want to deal and then treat them differently.

As examples: Bush, Jackson, League and Rios were all guys that people seemed to consider rushed throguh the minor leagues. To a lesser extent I think Vermilyea could be included here as well.

All of these guys seem to have been deemed expendable by the Jays as their names are coming up in trade rumours or they have been dealt (or left unprotected in the rule 5 draft).

I am beginning to think that this is a plan to boost these prospects values by having them blow through the minor leagues and therefore appear to be more valuable othan they are. The prospects that JP really seems to covet seem to progress at approximately 1 level per year (think Adams, Hill, Purcey, Lind, Janssen). I think this is a good plan (although as in League's case it can backfire a bit) as a way to get more value from the players that are deemed to be marginal prospects.

I have no idea if this is true but I will keep watching and see if this type of trend continues. I think Curtis Thigpen is another prospect that may have been rushed (jumped a level last year) to try to enhance his trade value...time will tell.
Newton - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:18 AM EST (#135759) #
If the price gets too high for Wilkerson or any younger player a guy like Reggie Sanders can give us nice production for a year or two without costing us any marketable assets.

I don't know much about evaluating defence and can't begin to assess how Adams or Hill would compare to Hudson but any acquisition via trade needs to be considered alongside the cost of the FA options still remaining.

This is why ridding ourselves of Hillenbrand and Hinske becomes so important. Batista will likely be at his maximum value when the remaining FA starters are off the market.

Bottom line, I don't pull the trigger on Wilkerson for Hudson unless all other options have been exhausted.
dmac - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:22 AM EST (#135760) #
I wouldn't pull the trigger on Wilkerson for Hudson period.
Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:27 AM EST (#135762) #
Agreed, dmac.
Leigh - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#135763) #
Just in case anybody thought that they might get some work done today: did you know that The Onion has a sports page now!

It has new stories, like Indians Meet With Trevor Hoffman, Forget to Offer Contract, and classics like Pro Athlete Lauded for Being Decent Human Being. The latter, from 2001, includes these beauties: "Ray Allen, Milwaukee Buck guard and budding NBA superstar, is drawing raves on and off the court, hailed by admirers as 'not an asshole' and 'a reasonably decent human being'"; and "[s]uch decency has not gone unnoticed: Never accused of sexual assault, Allen has earned high praise for his lack of hostility toward women... Bucks public relations director Cheri Hanson said[,] "Ray Allen isn't merely in the top one percent of NBA players; he's in the 51st percentile of human beings."

Again, my deepest apologies to anybody attempting to fulfill her or his employment obligations this afternoon.

Craig B - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#135764) #
Volatile is fun, Milton Bradley is dangerous.

Well said. Of course, dangerous is fun too... until he smashes my birthday cake. Keep MB out of T.O.!

Jeff Kent as number one? I think you have to go with Mr. Bonds with this one.

Nobody ever really said anything bad about Barry Bonds as teammate until he hit 73 home runs and the media needed a reason to start dumping on him. At first, the best they could come up with was that he had a nice recliner in the clubhouse.

To all those who have said that Hudson's value is enhanced by the pitching staff the Jays have - keep preaching it, gentlemen. I couldn't agree more.

Wilkerson is brutal. He's not even worth Batista.

Since the anti-Wilkersons have failed to come up with a single piece of evidence to support this, while the pro-Wilkersons have compiled page after page of evidence as to him being a good player, I'd say the onus is on one of you to give us a "why?" here.

the 2004 Jays would have been way more fun if occasionally someone overturned a bucket of balls onto the field

The 2004 Jays might also have been *better* if someone had done this occasionally. Carlos Tosca could vent his rage as well as any manager I've ever seen, but he was way, way too professional to act crazy. Ditto Gregg Zaun, who's pleasantly batty but not crazy enough to motivate. One of the best things about last year was the intensity was back. I'm not saying "go get MB for his intensity" but intense is good. Look at the Yankees... a $200 million team that sleepwalked through last season.

It seems to me that the prospects that JP trades are the ones that they push very aggressively.

This is really, really interesting, and I hadn't thought of this before. I'm not sure there's anything to it, though, because JP likes to push ALL his talented players aggressively.

georgekeip - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:35 AM EST (#135769) #
This is really, really interesting, and I hadn't thought of this before. I'm not sure there's anything to it, though, because JP likes to push ALL his talented players aggressively.

If this is the case why did it take so long for Lind to be promoted? Or Purcey (I understand his control needed work but he can do that at AA or single A...his "stuff" was never questioned)? Or Banks...for some reason they have always been slow at promoting him? Marcum is another guy that they pushed through fast and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him dealt.
MatO - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:35 AM EST (#135770) #
I don't think there is any correlation between how quickly a player goes throught the minors and the favour of JP and his brass. Hill was in the majors 2 years after he was drafted and Adams a little over 2 years. Rios made the majors in his 6th minor league season. There was nothing unusual about League's progression through the minors. Jackson was rushed to AAA but that was likely due to injuries in Syracuse. Janssen went A- to A to AA in the past season. Purcey from A to AA. Thigpen went to AA because they had Robinzon Diaz at A who they wanted to play but was not ready to go to AA. I really don't see any pattern here.
Pistol - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:39 AM EST (#135771) #
JP was quoted as saying after the Overbay trade that prospects weren't just to help the Jays but to use in trade and the quicker that they could get those players up to AA and AAA the more valuable they were in trades. This is probably one of the many reasons the Jays have preferred college players in the draft. Jackson was the key to the Overbay deal and he was drafted in 2004.

I'm not certain that they rush players that they don't want. If you rush a player and he doesn't succeed you've diminished his value. I don't think Bush was rushed at all. He pitched well when he was called up. Rios was called up earlier than expected, but more out of necessity than anything else. You can say Jackson and League were rushed, but I don't think it was an attempt to pump up their value. I think the reason League is brought up is that other teams know there's something there and are trying to buy low.

"The prospects that JP really seems to covet seem to progress at approximately 1 level per year (think Adams, Hill, Purcey, Lind, Janssen)."

Of those players Lind is the only one to stay at the same level the entire year.
Rob - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:43 AM EST (#135772) #
It seems to me that the prospects that JP trades are the ones that they push very aggressively.

I noticed that before as well, but didn't put much thought into it because, as Craig said, a lot of prospects are pushed in the Blue Jays organization. Peterson, Bush, Hill, Jackson, Thigpen, Janssen -- it just so happens that three of those have been traded.

The things is, though, Gabe Gross was traded too, and not only was he not pushed, some people make the argument that he should have been given an outfield job this year -- or even 2004.

And here's a blast from the past: Tom Mastny (who was not rushed at all; he was actually left in Charleston too long) had himself a very, very nice year with Cleveland's A and AA teams after being the PTBNL in the John McDonald trade (the first one). He will be 25 in 2006, though, so he really needs to get to AAA in order to be considered a prospect.

Even so...his lowest WHIP in his pro career? 1.18. Just 9 HR in 321 innings and he strikes out a batter per inning, 3.8 K/BB. I'll be interested to see what happens to Nasty Mastny next year.

Mike Green - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:52 AM EST (#135774) #
I've already written about Tom Mastny, at the time of the McDonald-Mastny trade. I still like him, but Rob and I might be the only ones who do. He throws 88-90, and none of his breaking stuff blows you away, but he's got sharp control and he keeps the ball down. He was not on the Indians' 40 man roster, but was not selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The Rockies could do worse than someone like Mastny as the 12th pitcher on their staff.
danjulien - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:55 AM EST (#135775) #
Crasnick just answered the question "what's next for the blue jays" in his live chat.
<i>Stan,J.P. Ricciardi would love to sign Nomar Garciaparra for a RH bat, then swing a deal with Texas for Brad Wilkerson. But Rangers GM Jon Daniels is driving a hard bargain these days, and that might not work out. That's why the Jays are also taking a look at Milton Bradley.</i>
Bradley is not a fit, after all the moves we've made to create this great clubhouse why bring in Bradley...and on that note, why trade O-Dog...
Kingsley Zissou - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:01 PM EST (#135776) #
<i>Since the anti-Wilkersons have failed to come up with a single piece of evidence to support this, while the pro-Wilkersons have compiled page after page of evidence as to him being a good player, I'd say the onus is on one of you to give us a "why?" here.</i>

I don't understand where this "page after page of evidence as to him being a good player" is? Sure, I've seen some middling, mediocre stats listed, but nothing that shows me that Wilkerson is a 'good' player. But since when does not being able to hit for average qualify you as a good player?

Named For Hank - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:04 PM EST (#135778) #
. But since when does not being able to hit for average qualify you as a good player?

Or, more to the point, Kingsley, since when is hitting for average the only measure of a good player?
HippyGilmore - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:14 PM EST (#135779) #
I think it's very easy to make a case against Wilkerson: He was completely average last year. Now, that's an upgrade over Alex Rios, granted, and Wilkerson still got on base at a nice clip even while hitting in the .240s. But his power completely disappeared, and what the Wilkerson haters are asking themselves is, what if it doesn't come back? Then we'd be giving up what, from all the reports, sounds like a considerable amount of value for a marginal upgrade and a guy who's only getting more and more expensive. So I'd say the case against going after Wilkerson is pretty strong unless you can show me that it's pretty likely he'll rediscover his power stroke and not become an overpaid rightfielder with a slugging percentage in the low .400s.
Kingsley Zissou - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:14 PM EST (#135780) #
I never said average was the only thing, but it's a glaring, GLARING weakness in his game.
Too many strikeouts, lack of power, gets injured.

The point is, if we're going after another bat, and the price is presumably going to be high (Batista + ODog + ???), then let's go after someone with a higher upside than Wilkerson.

I just hate it when JP gets a hardon for certain guys, and overlooks the obvious holes in their game to acquire them (or protect them - see Adams, Russ)
Craig B - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:17 PM EST (#135781) #
But since when does not being able to hit for average qualify you as a good player?

What does his batting average have to do with the price of tea in China? What matters is putting runs up on the board, and Wilkerson does that both ways - putting ducks on the pond and driving them in. He's been thirty runs above the average player these last two years, while the guy he'd be replacing - Rios - has been twenty runs under, despite a higher batting average. That's two or three wins per year, and last year was an unexpectedly down year for Wilkerson.

Wilkerson is also a good defender, a versatile guy who can give you real good performance in left, right, or center and at first. This isn't "he could play there" stuff - it's real, proven versatility, he's done it and done it well. I didn't think he could handle center but he proved me very wrong.

GeoffAtMac - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:25 PM EST (#135784) #

I noticed at pro sports daily rumors that the Pirates are looking for a third baseman.

What about Hinske + Prospect for Craig Wilson? Or maybe even Hillenbrand? I understand Craig Wilson isn't in the Pirates' plans, and Hinske definitely isn't in the Jays' plans.

Wilson has good OBP, and decent SLG power. Career his OPS is .363 + .488 = .851. Certainly an upgrade over many current Jays. I have no idea what his fielding ability is like though.

I think it could work because the Jays would eat some salary, but still clear room on the payroll. Thoughts?

Pulling something like this off would also allow us to keep some cash in reserve for trading later in the season. (Or perhaps to trade with Texas for Gerald Laird -- Zaun is going to need a backup, 'cause we just can't be sure about Quiroz.)

GeoffAtMac - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#135786) #
Think of the lineup:

C: Zaun
1B: Overbay
2B: O-Dog
SS: Adams/Hill
3B: Koskie
LF: Cat / Sparky
CF: Vernon
RF: Craig Wilson

DH: Hillenbrand or new DH that we get as an FA

Bench: Rios, Hill

It could be a very solid lineup. Maybe even if we got Reggie Sanders as a FA, but I would guess he wants to continue to play outfield.
Leigh - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:29 PM EST (#135787) #
Hillenbrand for Wilson would be ideal, though I doubt that Littlefield would bite.
Anders - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:29 PM EST (#135788) #
For fun, a historical look at the biggest jerks in baseball history. Bill James said he thought there were four players in a leauge of their own, so to speak: Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, Dick Allen, and Hal Chase. Two stories about Hornsby (From James):

"When Bill Veeck fired Rogers Hornsby in 1952, Roy Stockton wrote in defense of Hornsby that Rogers "wanted to win so badly that he was a sourpuss about it." Veeck replied by saying that Hornsby was a sourpuss was like saying that Attila the Hun need to work on his table manners. Hornsby then moved to Cincinatti, where, according to Earl Lawson (Cincinatti Seasons), the players designated Grady Hutton to go to the front office and complain about the fact that Hornsby insisted on urinating in the showers, after being asked not to.

I think I might choose Hornsby. My favourite Hornsby story: in 1925 Hornsby was on the field, arguing loudly with Art Fletcher, when all of (a) sudden, without warning, he punched Fletcher in the face. Later, a reporter asked him why he had hit Fletcher. "Well," replied Hornsby very seriously, "I wasn't making any progress trying to talk to him.""

I dont think Milton would be this bad...

Craig B - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:31 PM EST (#135790) #
But his power completely disappeared, and what the Wilkerson haters are asking themselves is, what if it doesn't come back?

Then you have an actual leadoff hitter, instead of just a potential one in Rios.

You've done a much better job at outlining the anti-Wilkerson case, which I acknowledge is totally legit and sensible. Few players are perfect, and Wilkerson's flaws are more obvious than most good players (his skills are also less obvious).

Much of that case boils down to Wilkerson having a bad year last year. If he hadn't, there is absolutely no way he'd be available in the first place - the year before he'd hit 32 home runs and nobody could touch him with a ten-foot pole. "What have you done for me lately?" has a powerful psychological hold on fans, press and baseball people, but it shouldn't make us lose sight of the fact that Wilkerson's skills do not appear to be significantly eroded, he is still in his prime, and his relatively poor performance last year will make him cheaper in arbitration.

Wilkerson is risky, because he may not return to the level he played at previously. Because of the Jays' position in the AL, it is imperative that they take significant risks in order to be competitive. The Jays cannot wait for the "sure thing" to drop into their lap, not merely because we've all waited long enough, but because they need to get more bang for their buck than the typical team. Taking risks needs to be an essential part of their strategy. Signing players like Wilkerson who have just had an off year is a sensible way to add risk to the team.

In business, in life, in baseball, too often we equate the notion of "risk management" with "risk minimization". This is not the proper way to see risk. Properly considered, risk in and of itself is value-neutral, and merely adds variability. The Jays need to make variability their friend if they want to win a World Series - almost anybody does. If you want an example of that, call up Kenny Williams and ask him why he signed Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras or ask the Pistons why they "rolled the dice" with Antonio McDyess.

Properly managed, risk wins championships.

Rich - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:06 PM EST (#135798) #

On Wilkerson:

Too many strikeouts - Hard to argue

lack of power - not so much. True, he only hit 11 homers last year, but he added 42 doubles and 7 triples and has career averages of 36 doubles and 21 homers. By way of comparison, Vernon's averages in his 4 full seasons are 36 doubles and 27 home runs. Wilkerson's career averages are certainly more that the Jays should expect from the current crop of corner outfielders.

gets injured - Care to back this up? His career LOWS in 4 full seasons are 146 Games Played and 504 AB. You must be thinking of somebody else.

I acknowlege there may be some valid reasons to not want him, but of the three you mentioned I'd say about 1.2 of them are grounded in reality.

DepecheJay - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:13 PM EST (#135800) #
While I'm in between on Wilkerson, I understand that he'd be a great upgrade on Rios.

With that said, what some of the "Pro-Wilkerson" people have failed to do is explain why the team should unload Hudson to get this guy.

Orlando Hudson IS the Toronto Blue Jays. From all reports from players, he is the glue that holds the clubhouse together. He's always upbeat, he's always encouraging, and he's always making dazzling plays at 2nd base. Hudson's value to the Jays is something intangible that yes, it can be explained through defensive metrics, but it's something a little more then that. Especially so now with Burnett in the fold, an extreme groundball pitcher.

Look, I and other Jays fans would normally LOVE to get Wilkerson. And yes, you have to give to get. But this would be rediculous. You basically say "Fudge you" to Vernon, the team's player rep, who probably speaks for most of the players on the team and you don't even pick up a bonafide star in the process. It would be another thing if the Jays were going to include Doggy in a package deal to land Dunn but they aren't. Getting rid of the O-Dog might be as bad for the clubhouse, if not worse, then picking up Milton Bradley.

And to top it off, there are tonnes of fans who LOVE Hudson. He has made the past 2 seasons extremely fun to watch when the product on the field (especially 2 years ago)hasn't been to worthwhile. You might laugh and question their fandom, but some fans might be so upset that they will stop watching or stop coming to Jays games. You don't want that.

So J.P., JUST SAY NO
Paul D - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:19 PM EST (#135802) #
From Rotoworld:


The Pirates have interest in Toronto outfielder Alex Rios, but not if it will cost them Paul Maholm.
VBF - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:20 PM EST (#135803) #
Need a laugh?

After lunch, Star columnist Richard Griffin and I head back to the media room to peruse the Internet. We scour a couple of baseball forums, checking to see how many people are insulting him on this particular day. I offer a couple of suggestions on how to best antagonize the repeat offenders in his next column. He duly notes them.

Having a little too much fun, eh Richard?

David Paul - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:22 PM EST (#135804) #
Had to post because this part of Baker's Hit and Run column is pretty amusing:

After lunch, Star columnist Richard Griffin and I head back to the media room to peruse the Internet. We scour a couple of baseball forums, checking to see how many people are insulting him on this particular day. I offer a couple of suggestions on how to best antagonize the repeat offenders in his next column. He duly notes them.

VBF - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:25 PM EST (#135805) #
Now THATS a coincidence!
Pistol - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:34 PM EST (#135806) #
The Pirates have interest in Toronto outfielder Alex Rios, but not if it will cost them Paul Maholm.

Back a few years the Jays were very interested in Paul Maholm prior to the draft. Maholm ended up going to the Pirates #8 overall prior to the Jays selecting Aaron Hill (and I suspect would have taken Hill over Maholm if both were available).

I believe Maholm was the player the Jays, including JP, were looking at when they had their infamous tornado dodging trip.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/paul-maholm.shtml

Leigh - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:36 PM EST (#135807) #
Too many strikeouts - Hard to argue

Not hard to argue at all. While strikeouts can be a disturbing trend for an up-and-comer, for the established player, they are fine.

Considering the possibilities for out-making, strikeouts aren't that bad; they have a value of exactly one (1) out. An out on a batted ball in play - because the likelihood*impact of a double play is greater than the likelihood*impact of moving a runner over - is worse than the one insular out created by a strikeout.

Players like Wilkerson - extreme flyball hitters with good speed and high strikeout rates - are the ones who produce the least harmful outs. In fact, Wilkerson grounded into only six double plays in 2005, a total bested by only four other NL hitters (min. 450 PA) - and that tied his career high in GDP. In 2,690 career plate appearances, Wilkerson has grounded into only 24 double plays, or three more than Shea Hillenbrand grounded into last season alone.

Rich - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:37 PM EST (#135808) #
Thanks for proving my point further, Leigh, but correcting me.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:39 PM EST (#135809) #
With that said, what some of the "Pro-Wilkerson" people have failed to do is explain why the team should unload Hudson to get this guy.

I certainly don't want to do that, and I'm pro-Wilkerson. Who thinks that the team should unload Hudson to get Wilkerson?

Just because some rumor says that's a potential trade, that doesn't mean that the only way to get Wilkerson is by trading Orlando Hudson, or that by desiring Wilkinson on the team one automatically must desire Hudson to be off the team.
Leigh - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:46 PM EST (#135811) #
Thanks for proving my point further, Leigh, but correcting me.

No problem, Rich. You were right about the injuries and power parts, so I figured I'd give you a hand so that you could go three for three.

Chuck - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:47 PM EST (#135813) #
Just because some rumor says that's a potential trade, that doesn't mean that the only way to get Wilkerson is by trading Orlando Hudson, or that by desiring Wilkinson on the team one automatically must desire Hudson to be off the team.

I think the feeling is that Texas would demand Hudson, to replace Soriano, were they to give up Wilkerson. I'm sure JP would happily give up Rios and Batista instead of Hudson and Batista, selling Texas on Rios's ability to play CF.

Cristian - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:58 PM EST (#135815) #
After lunch, Star columnist Richard Griffin and I head back to the media room to peruse the Internet. We scour a couple of baseball forums, checking to see how many people are insulting him on this particular day. I offer a couple of suggestions on how to best antagonize the repeat offenders in his next column. He duly notes them.

They couldn't have come to this forum as Griffin is soundly ignored around these parts.

DepecheJay - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 02:01 PM EST (#135816) #
NFH, it's not just some rumor.

Blair has given it some ink, and seeing how he has apparent ties with the organization there must be some validity to it. On top of that, J.P. has never shied away from stating the fact that he would trade O-Dog if the right deal came along.

Hopefully this isn't the right deal.

Rich - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 02:05 PM EST (#135817) #
I'd be surprised if Hudson was more important to Texas than pitching, despite the reports. Ian Kinsler hit
.348 / .464 / .812 in AAA at age 23; he may well be ready for a big league job. I find it a bit hard to believe that Hudson would be a deal-breaker.
VBF - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 02:14 PM EST (#135821) #
Hopefully this isn't the right deal.

Exactly. The very fact that we've survived a week of O-Dog rumours has got to be a good sign. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

And as for anyone saying that they won't watch games if O-Dog gets traded, that's just ridiculous. Maybe it was an overreaction, but let's all get a grip here. Nothing's happened yet.

Named For Hank - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 03:37 PM EST (#135844) #
Blair has given it some ink, and seeing how he has apparent ties with the organization there must be some validity to it. On top of that, J.P. has never shied away from stating the fact that he would trade O-Dog if the right deal came along.

Okay, how about if I phrase it this way -- just because Texas has asked for Orlando Hudson and the Jays are possibly considering it, that still does not mean that because I'd like to see Wilkerson as a Jay that I want to get rid of Orlando Hudson. It also does not mean that the only way to get Wilkerson is to give up Hudson.

I quite emphatically do not wish to see Orlando Hudson traded. I also would like to see Brad Wilkerson as a Blue Jay.

Is that any clearer?
Mike Green - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 04:16 PM EST (#135852) #
Brad Wilkerson has hit 83 homers over the last 4 years. In a neutral park, it would have been 85. It seems to me pretty clear what reasonable power expectations are- 20-22 homers, 30-35 doubles. He should draw 75-85 walks and strike out 150 or so times.

The questions about him are how much speed has he lost due to his knee problems, and how will this affect his batting average and his defensive abilities in the outfield. He was 8-18 stealing bases last year, suggesting that there may have been some loss, and he has reached that age anyway. On the other hand, his BABIP was up in 2005. That's where scouting becomes so important. Was there evidence that Wilkerson was slowing down in the field and on the basepaths? It would be interesting to have his baserunning stats for 2005, compared with 2004-2003.

If Wilkerson hits .250 and can play good defence in right, he's a valuable player. If he's going to hit .235 and play barely passable defence in right, you're better off with Alex Rios.
Ducey - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 05:07 PM EST (#135868) #
This from BA:

Majewski, a third-round pick in 2003 out of Texas, batted .272-20-73 at high Class A Stockton this season. Majewski led the Big 12 Conference in batting (.401) in 2002 and in RBIs (85) in 2003 while with the Longhorns. The 24-year-old showed emerging power in the hitter-friendly Class A California League this year but profiles as a fourth outfielder.

Majewski has tremendous desire and work ethic that allows his solid-average tools to play higher. While he doesn't have true center field speed or range, he is versatile enough to fill in at any spot.


Sounds like Reed Johnson.
Craig B - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 05:58 PM EST (#135884) #
Was there evidence that Wilkerson was slowing down in the field and on the basepaths? It would be interesting to have his baserunning stats for 2005, compared with 2004-2003.

By IBR, which you can read all about in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual, 2006 Edition (we also have IBR charts for every team) Wilkerson was +0.30 runs on the bases last season, third on the Expos who were a terrible running team (too aggressive). So his baserunning was fine, but I don't know about 2003-04.

actionjackson - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 06:17 PM EST (#135887) #
I feel Batista, League, and Rios should get Wilkerson for us. Texas wants Wilkerson for CF, but Rios could take over for him there. Then, they could trade one or two of Mench, Nix, or Matthews for further pitching or even Rios, if they wanted to. He would make an excellent CF there (his value would go up in this position). It's a great hitters park. Rudy Jaramillo is a solid hitting coach who might be able to get him untracked. He could help him in his own language, not that there's a language barrier here, but that might make him feel more comfortable. I am not afraid of him breaking out there. If he does, good for him. What purpose does he have on this team, if we get Wilkerson?

The Rangers could then open up SS or 2B for Ian Kinsler, with Michael Young playing the other position. They could bring in a cheap vet to help Kinsler or take over for him should he falter. We know they want Batista and League, but it doesn't seem like the Rangers are prepared to bite on that alone. Maybe a second tier pitching prospect (we're already giving up League) instead of Rios? Is it a lot to give up for Wilkerson? Yes. But will they have much of a roll on this team, should we be able to do the things we want? No. League has a great arm, but I think the surfer dude is about to be overcome by our next wave of pitching. Miguel is enigma #3, let someone else sort him out. Maybe Barajas, if he's back with Texas will have more success with him, but I'm tired of his headstrong attitude. Translation: he needs a change of scenery.

My ramblings have 2 primary objectives: 1) To get JP the latest object of his desire and 2) To divert Buck Showalter's covetous gaze from our O-Dog because I don't feel comfortable with Adams and Hill up the middle, if we're going for it this year.

If we can get Wilkerson, without giving up Hudson and then get Garciaparra or Reggie Sanders and a backup catcher who can throw out basestealers and hit just a little, I will be a very happy camper. Dump Hinske first and then Hilly, if you can make all those moves and we will have had a terrific offseason.
JB21 - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 06:43 PM EST (#135890) #
JP if you're reading you're doing a great job.

I just finished playing MVP 2005 and AJ picked up the 2-0 Win pitching 7 and a 1/3 shutout innings. BJ picked up the save, and Overbay hit a SOLO shot in the 7th to put the Jays on the board.

Oh yes, if you wondered the other run was a solo shot by Shea going back to back with Overybay. Just incase you weren't sure whether to keep Hinske or Shea.

That is all.
Nick - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:27 PM EST (#135902) #
"..Wilkerson was +0.30 runs on the bases last season, third on the Expos..."

Craig, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Expos are no longer. :)
Craig B - Tuesday, April 29 2008 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#184006) #
This was a fun one to see revived.  Lots of good discussion here.  I was more wrong than right about Wilkerson - thankfully, I was more right than wrong about Overbay.
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