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Two days and our roundup thread is getting long in the tooth. Babies grow up so fast these days.

So, what's new:

Pat Gillick continues to make moves with the signing of 6 year minor league free agent catcher Sal Fasano, and the signing of reliever Tom Gordon, conditional on a physical, to a 3 year $18 million contract. Gordon will replace Billy Wagner as the Phillies' closer.

The Giants signed Tim Worrell to a 2 year conract.

And there's a lot of free agent and trade rumour, which is mostly best left unrepeated.


The winter meetings start next week, and it is a good time to take stock of the home team's depth chart and options:

Starting pitching

Currently under contract or control are Halladay, Chacin, Bush, Towers, Batista and Lilly. There is surplus already here and the possible signing of Burnett would add to it.

Relief pitching

With Ryan, Frasor, Speier, Schoeneweis, Chulk, McGowan, Marcum, Downs and Walker, there are simply too many adequate and better pitchers, especially with the surfeit of possible replacements in the event of injury already slated for Syracuse.

The addition of Ryan allows the bullpen to follow a classic modern role definition. Ryan is the closer. Frasor, McGowan or Speier could conceivably set up. Schoeneweis is the situational lefty. Chulk or Speier would make a good middle man. Marcum or Walker could be the right-handed long man and Downs could be the left and sometimes switch roles with Batista.

There appear to be some possibilities to address the situation:

Option 1- keep all of them with the intention that McGowan will be moved into the rotation,
Option 2- trade one of McGowan or Frasor
Option 3- send McGowan and Marcum to Syracuse for more seasoning and continue with the same bullpen approach as 2004, but with Ryan instead of Batista.

Option 3 is the most conservative approach, and it does have the virtue of being familiar. Options 2 and 1 have the most potential for team improvement, but at least one question does need to be answered. Is Dustin McGowan ready to take on a key role, either in the rotation or as a set-up man? If it were me, I'd be taking offers for Jason Frasor, who is a fine pitcher and perfectly capable of filling the set-up role, and could even close cheaply for some teams.

Catching

Gregg Zaun and Guillermo Quiroz constitute the team's complement. It was pretty much unanimous that the Jays needed another catcher, in light of Zaun's age and Quiroz's uncertain health. Whether this catcher is to be one who will share time with Zaun more or less 50-50, or one who will be available in the event of injury or poor performance by Quiroz is the issue of the day.

The Infield

Decisions, decisions. Current personnel are Hillenbrand, Hinske, Hudson, Adams, Hill and Koskie. The options seem to me to be as follows:

1. send Adams or Hill to Syracuse or trade one, and let the other play shortstop. All others remain in their 2005 positions with Hillenbrand and Hinske sharing the first base job, subject to an acquisition of talent in the 1B/DH slot.

2. install Hill as your everyday third baseman, move Koskie to first base and Hinske to the bench.

3. trade Orlando Hudson and have Adams/Hill in some combination as your double play partners.

Hill and Hudson have the most trade value, but are in my view key to the team's future success. For myself, I'd recommend a variant of option 1. Russ Adams seems to be challenged defensively in the infield, but seems to have substantial potential as a leadoff hitter. I see his most productive role as a leftfielder or as a super-sub. Aaron Hill's athleticism, instincts and leadership warrant his installation as the team's shortstop.

The Outfield

The current lineup features Rios, Gross, Wells, Catalanotto, Johnson. This is perhaps one too many, but there is not an obvious surplus unless Adams moved here.

It's sobering, but when you actually think about it, there really is not a huge amount of surplus talent on the major league team.
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Mike D - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 11:21 AM EST (#134022) #
Because we associate Worrell with the Giants during their playoff runs earlier this decade, it seems obvious to say he "re-signed" with them. But Worrell was actually a Phillie and Diamondback last season.

Remember when the Jays narrowly lost out on the Worrell "sweepstakes" two years ago to Philadelphia? I don't miss offseasons like that one.
Jordan - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:03 PM EST (#134027) #
Adams seems to be challenged defensively in the infield, but seems to have substantial potential as a leadoff hitter. I see his most productive role as a leftfielder or as a super-sub.

Russ Adams as the new Shannon Stewart? Very interesting thought, Mike. I'm inclined to think that if he's moved off SS, second base is Adams' logical next destination, a tougher position on the defensive spectrum than LF. But that's some very out-of-the-Box thinking.

Again, I think the likeliest players to be dealt are Batista, Hudson, Rios, Chacin or League -- if the Rangers' asking price for Mench is reflective of the market for hitters out there, then you're not going to see a major bat arrive in Toronto without a whole lot of talent going elsewhere. It might be a good idea not to get too attached to any current Jays going into the weekend. But I would imagine Hill and McGowan are probably off-limits in all but the hugest trades.

DepecheJay - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:07 PM EST (#134028) #
I don't understand at all why anyone would rather hang on to Russ Adams then Orlando Hudson. I know you've gotta give to get, and that teams are more interested in Dog then Russ, but at that point is a deal worth it? The guy is the leader of the Toronto Blue Jays. Not Doc, not Vernon, but O-Dog. How many times to teams just deal their team leader because he's at a "position of strength."

I'd like for the Jays to keep Hill around, but I could care less about Adams. The guy had one of the worst defensive 2nd halves of a season that I can recall. That's troubling because you'd like to see him progress as the season moves along, not get worse.

Unless the Jays get Dunn in return, or a player of that magnitude, a Hudson deal has disaster/clubhouse revolt/media thrashing of JP/Revolt of Jays fans everywhere written ALL over it.

The guy is the Jays leader, look at how Wells and others speak about him... don't trade him.
Mike Green - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:13 PM EST (#134030) #
Thanks, Mike D. It has been fixed.
Jordan - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#134032) #
I'd like for the Jays to keep Hill around, but I could care less about Adams.

Indeed, and that's how most teams in baseball feel too. Hudson has trade value -- not a huge amount, because he's a below-average hitter in a league that boasts bats like Soriano, Roberts, Cantu, Polanco and Ellis at the position. But he's got two Gold Gloves and a lot of flair, and that will attract a number of teams.

I don't want to see Hudson leave either, but you gotta give to get, and the Jays have limited wherewithal to give. If JP signs Burnett, there's a pretty good chance Hudson could be spared because the Jays can deal from a heavy pitching surplus. If he can't, the O-Dog is almost certainly history.

Joe - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:41 PM EST (#134034) #
Actually, Hudson only has one gold glove. He wuz robbed last year.
Sister - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:50 PM EST (#134035) #
The G&M mentions that the Rangers asked for Batista, Rios and League for Mench.

How ridiculous is that. I would be hestitant to give up Batista straight up for Mench without getting something else. Not to rehash old new but a look at Mench's splits reveals what a thoroughly average player he is, worse so away from the comfy confines of Ameriquest Field.

Home OPS 825
Away OPS 769

He is not much of an upgrade over Rios to warrant such an outrageous deal. Meanwhile, he has extreme leftie-rightie splits, which translate into a platoon type role.

Seriously, what is the GM smoking in Texas? (if this truly was the offer made)
VBF - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:51 PM EST (#134036) #
I wouldn't object to the prospect of letting Hill start 2006 in AAA. I'm not totally sold on him, but I would like to keep both around. Trading Koskie is probably the ideal solution right now, but who knows if it can be done.
Jordan - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:55 PM EST (#134038) #
Sorry, you're right -- I was momentarily thinking of VW's two awards.
timpinder - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:26 PM EST (#134042) #
Right now I would rather have Hudson than Adams too. But, not only does Hudson have more trade value, Adams projects as a better hitter with much better plate discipline. His minor league numbers (.285 avg) suggest that he'll probably be a .275 + hitter in the majors with a solid OBP.

Hudson is definately a better defensive player. HOWEVER, if Hudson was traded, Adams was moved to 2B and Hill took over at SS, Adams' errors would probably drop significantly. A lot of his errors were throwing errors. His weak arm would be less of a factor at 2B. He might be an average defender.

Point: I'd rather have Hudson than Adams if all the other peices were in place. However, trading Hudson may bring a substantial improvement at a weak position at the expense of of slight downgrade at another. If that's the case, I'd trade Hudson in a minute.
Anders - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:48 PM EST (#134045) #
Peter Gammons is reporting that Luis Castillo has been sent to the Twins for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler, who are I assume are not top grade minor league pitchers (well, I don't know who they are)
Mick Doherty - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:50 PM EST (#134046) #
Seriously, what is the GM smoking in Texas?

First, keep in mind that Jon Daniels has been in that job for a good 10 minutes. So he certainly would like to make a major splash of some sort.

Second, remember that traditionally, GMs tend to wildly overrate their own players -- not as much as fans like many here on Da Box do, but it's a fair point to raise. Daniels is not a traditional GM, of course, but then neither is Ricciardi.

Third, remember it was an opening offer. I'm surprised he didn't ask for Wells (a Dallas-area native, no less) and League, or maybe Wells and Halladay for that matter. Of course he won't GET that, but he's gotta start somewhere, so why not start high? (Drug jokes are too easy after that line, so just say "no.")

Pistol - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:55 PM EST (#134047) #
Bowyer was a AAA closer with 96/40 K/BB ratio in 74 innings.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/Stats/showp.php?id=434539

Tyler was in the FSL this year - 109/48 K/BB in 118 innings and 23 starts.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/Stats/showp.php?id=434558
Nick - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:20 PM EST (#134048) #
Mick - I am totally on board with the initial offer idea, but at some point, an offer is so imbalanced that you begin to lose credibility as a reasonable GM. Chuck LaMar suffered that fate toward the end of his tenure.
Ron - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:32 PM EST (#134052) #
I don't blame LaMar. After he was able to deal BB Zambrano for Kazmir, I would be asking for the moon in every trade too.

Alexander - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:38 PM EST (#134053) #
"The G&M mentions that the Rangers asked for Batista, Rios and League for Mench."

Laughable. I think Mench would be a decent fit - but that is MADNESS.

Cheers
Newton - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:39 PM EST (#134054) #
Its obvious we need help in the OF corners and at 1b/DH, so we need to make some tough choices on which of the few surplus players we deal.

The defensive capabilities of Adams and Hill are central to these considerations.

Adams vs. Hill:

If the Jays are confident that both Adams and Hill can start at SS next year the one with the most value to our hypothetical trading partner should be dealt, as I don't particularly prefer one to the other. (For a while in late July it looked like Adams would post an .800 OPS, he fell of dramatically late in the season but I'd be more than happy with him out there again).

O-Dawg:

If Hill or Adams can play adequate 2nd base either of them should match O-Dawg's offensive numbers. The question therefore becomes whether the defence lost at 2nd is worth more or less than the offence/defence gained by the player O-Dawg yields in a trade versus his predecessor at whatever position.

If we sign Burnett Hudson's value goes way up; think 450 innings of ground ball heaven between AJ and the Doc.

Pitching:

Trade the prospect or prospects with the most perceived value throughout Major league baseball for offence. Earlier this week I argued the virtues of Overbay for McGowan (personally I'm not even sure if the Brew Crew would do it despite some Box members feeling it was outrageous for the Jays to even consider trading McGowan).
Trades like this would help immensely without detracting from our 2006 on field product.







Ron - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:43 PM EST (#134055) #
I'm starting to wonder if Gross still projects to be a starting RF or LF for the Jays.

On WWJP, he said Gross was still a big part of the Jays future. Last year should have been the year to find out if Gross could handle full-time duties but he never got a shot. He has nothing left to prove at AAA. From watching him last season, I thought he was really solid but his numbers don't wow you.

I just have this bad feeling he will be dealt and put up a stat line of .280/.360/.445 next season.
Maldoff - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:45 PM EST (#134056) #
Ron, you mean put up numbers like Jayson Werth?
binnister - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:45 PM EST (#134057) #
Has the Giles resigning in San Deigo been 'offically' announced yet? I know its all but a done deal, but I haven't seen or heard of a press conference been held to make it 'offical'.
Nick - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 02:56 PM EST (#134060) #
Ron – I think fearing that a prospect might perform well is not a healthy way to approach making trades. Billy Beane has always been fearless in this regard. He has espoused the idea that once you find a player you want to acquire who will be a good fit for you team, you do what it takes to acquire him and don’t worry about how the players you give up perform in the future. If anything, he looked at this way – if you are constantly trading away prospects who are duds, no one is going to want any of your prospects in the future. It’s to your benefit that they turn out well for another team sometimes. If Gabe Gross ends up excelling in another organization, good for him – as long as the player the Jays get in return performs at the high level projected by Toronto that made the acquired player attractive in the first place. It’s the players you acquire and how they’ll perform in the future, not the ones you trade, that you should be concerned about.
Pistol - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 03:19 PM EST (#134063) #
Jayson Werth is a career .245/.333/.420 hitter which looks a lot like Reed Johnson except that Johnson doesn't get hurt.
timpinder - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 03:20 PM EST (#134064) #
Newton,
I have to disagree about trading McGowan for Overbay. I remember when Halladay was up, before being sent down to A. He was getting hammered and I remember people sitting beside me at the games saying he was a Bum. But if you watched him pitch, you KNEW he had awesome stuff and that once he matured and gained control he'd be a frontline pitcher or an ace.

McGowan has that stuff. If he was traded for Overbay, history might end up proving it to be one of the worst trades in Jays history. McGowan may never develop to his full potential, but to trade a player with that potential for OVERBAY would be a bad move IMO.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 03:23 PM EST (#134065) #
Ron, you mean put up numbers like Jayson Werth?

When did Werth put up .280/.360/.445? Last year he did .234/.338/.374, and his career numbers are .245/.333/.420.
SK in NJ - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 03:40 PM EST (#134067) #
The Jayson Werth comment may have been sarcasm. Werth, to this point, is injury prone and very poor against RHP (similar to Reed Johnson). His 2004 numbers were greatly influenced by a massive RH/LH split (1.001 OPS against LHP, .741 against RHP). Frasor has killed him to this point, but that's not really of much significance, IMO. As long as Frasor helps the Jays, I couldn't care less what Werth does for the Dodgers. Same goes for everyone else who has been and could potentially be traded.

I don't expect Gross to be traded for a Frasor type return. If Gross is dealt, I think it will be in a package for a starting player (Lyle Overbay, maybe? Ash is Milwaukee's assistant GM, IIRC).
Mike Green - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:01 PM EST (#134068) #
Doug Melvin is apparently interested in bullpen help for Overbay. There seems to be a match in needs/surpluses between the Brewer and Jay first base and bullpen situations. Frasor and Gross for Overbay perhaps?
RhyZa - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:16 PM EST (#134070) #
Numbers, especially peripherals are very useful in seperating legit prospects from pretenders but beyond that point it's a lot of feel and instinct. And with that said, I just see something in McGowan that makes me think he can the jump and be something special. That's not to say I wouldn't dangle other pitching prospect(s) for Overbay.
Pistol - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:20 PM EST (#134071) #
Farnsworth to the Yanks is official. 3 for $17

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2245182
nicton - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#134072) #
Anyone else notice more Jay's minor league pitchers get compared to Halladay ( one of the top 2 - 3 pitchers in baseball )then they due with Todd Van Poppel ( usually how pitching prospect end up )???


Any speculation on the max the Jays would go for Burnett??? 5/$65?? Cards fans seem to think Burnett will take the Cards' offer of 4/<$40 with a vesting option...
Newton - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:38 PM EST (#134073) #
While for some it may seem like a strange brew, Overbay and Jenkins would answer a lot of questions for the Jays.

Jenkins is owed 15 mill over 2 years according to the link provided by Green, and Overbay should be relatively cheap the next couple seasons.

10 mill per season could give us 50-60 HR and two guys with .850-.900 OBP's. No idea what the price in terms of the players going back would be but I'd be willing to pay a hefty price for these 2. (ie. Rios, McGowan, and Batista)




david wang - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:40 PM EST (#134074) #
I would think the best way to fix the Jays IF position, assuming that Hudson isn't traded is to traded Koskie and bring in Cliff Floyd, I'm not sure how much the Mets are willing to trade him, but they traded Kazmir for Zambrano so maybe a Batista/Lily and Hinske/Hillenbrand/Koskie and maybe a pitching prospect would do it.

1B Hilly/Hinske
2B Hudson
SS Adams
3B Hill
LF Floyd
CF Wells
RF Rios
DH Cat

Without picking up Dunn, who I think would cost Hudson, McGowan and Lily, or Giles, we can still add a 270/350/500 guy to hit behind, or in front of Vernon.
rtcaino - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 04:43 PM EST (#134075) #
From Blair:
"Mench is a right-handed hitter and Ricciardi said that makes him of more interest to the club than Lyle Overbay, a left-handed-hitting first baseman whom Ricciardi asked the Milwaukee Brewers about at those meetings. But the Blue Jays are also prepared to revisit that discussion."

Am I the only one that finds this reasoning counter-intuitive?

“”Any speculation on the max the Jays would go for Burnett??? 5/$65??””

Blair said that is what the agent is asking for. JP would prefer an option. 4/10 wityh an option seems awfully low.
Magpie - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:02 PM EST (#134076) #
Re Cliff Floyd...

Two problems. It wasn't the current GM who traded Kazmir for Zambrano. Second, the Mets have Carlos Delgado at 1b and David Wright at 3b. Why on earth would they want Hillenbrand? Or Hinske? Or Koskie?

DiscoDave - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:10 PM EST (#134077) #
i would be wary of Jenkins' history of injury...

I can see Overbay in the 3 spot...
david wang - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:18 PM EST (#134079) #
Okay, not koskie etc then. But what are the chances of the Jays getting Floyd with pitching? I think he would be a good aquisition for the Jays.
Mike Green - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:24 PM EST (#134081) #
The Mets have just signed Billy Wagner. Their primary interests according to this report are: a catcher, a LOOGY and a second baseman, in that order of importance. They're looking at relatively small pieces now...
DiscoDave - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:34 PM EST (#134083) #
im not sure JP would take the risk on Floyd also based on his injury history.
John Northey - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:40 PM EST (#134084) #
Always fun to dig through the BJ's possibilities for 2006.

CA: Zaun/Q/free agent - probably someone off the scrap heap ala Zaun will be added.
1B: Hinske (262/333/430)/Hillenbrand (291/343/449)/Koskie? (249/337/398) - Hillenbrand is the current favorite of managment, but Hinske might be the man while Shea is traded. On an off year he really didn't hit as badly as I thought (29 OPS points shy of Shea - easily within normal season to season variance). None of these 3 are ideal first basemen but none should kill us ala the DH's of '91 (very, very ugly).

2B/SS: Hudson (271/315/412)/Adams (256/325/383)/Hill (274/342/385) - This is one of those cases where the stats person in me says 'trade Hudson' but my heart says 'trade Adams' or find some way of putting all 3 into the lineup. This is where the signing of Koskie (249/337/398) becomes a big headache. However, Koskie should produce much better next year based on past performance. Adams and Hill should also improve. Hudson is who he is. To me the ideal is to trade Hillenbrand and/or Hisnke (the other is a DH/1B/3B backup) while keeping this gang together as 1B-Koskie 2B-Hudson SS-Adams 3B-Hill.

CF: Wells - he is there for the next 2 years no matter what

RF/LF: Johnson (269/332/412)/Gross (250/324/348)/Cat (301/367/451)/Rios (262/306/397)/? - Oy. Rios is the weakest link and will probably be part of a package to get a real hitter. Gross, Johnson, and Cat are all solid platoon players who can be solid parts of a team but do we really need all 3? Right now, as is, I'd probably put Gross/Rios in a RF platoon and Johnson/Cat in a LF platoon and hope Gross and/or Rios becomes what many thought they both could become a few years ago. Then the loser gets into the Johnson/Cat mix in LF and into the DH mix. Cat is clearly the best of the group at this point, Gross has the most potential to develop, Johnson is who he is, and Rios ... well ... the less said the better.

I think JP right now has lots of platoon mixes (Shea/Eric, Cat/Reed, Gross/Rios) and is probably going to trade whichever sides he doesn't need once he gets the big bat or two he wants. ie: if it is a left handed slugger then Hinske/Cat/Gross are all available, right handed then Shea & Rios are (Johnson is here for life I think). If it takes Adams, Hill or Hudson to get a trade done then we will lose one of them, but I really think JP will try to find a way to keep all 3 as Koskie is an injury waiting to happen and all 3 are still fairly inexpensive.

So, my bet?

CA: Zaun
1B: Koskie
2B: Hudson
3B: Hill
SS: Adams
LF: Cat/Johnson
CF: Wells
RF: New guy
DH: Hinske

With Hillenbrand and Rios traded away, Gross as the 5th outfielder, and a platoon mate for Hinske.

Y'know, I should probably see who is out there who could be traded for first, but with the pitching excess to go along with 'Mr Potential' Rios I suspect JP can get a RF and right handed DH.
MrPurple - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 05:49 PM EST (#134086) #
The Score is reporting the Blue Jays have designated Chad Gaudin for Assignment. Do you think this is to account for B.J or to prepare for an imminent move?
SK in NJ - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 06:00 PM EST (#134087) #
Rotoworld is speculating Gaudin may be involved in a deal.

It's hard to justify keeping Pete Walker (as solid as he was last year) over Gaudin, IMO. Gaudin's upside may not be large, but his minor league success should have been enough to keep him in the depth chart.
Mike Green - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 06:09 PM EST (#134088) #
Well, the Jays did have 41 players on the 40-man roster with the Rule 5 draft coming up, so a move would have been required. That doesn't necessarily mean that a trade is impossible.
Ducey - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 06:13 PM EST (#134089) #
Thought this was funny (from Rotoworld):

"Free agent Sidney Ponson is telling teams he would prefer to start, but would close under the right circumstances.
A friend of Ponson's told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal that the right-hander has stopped drinking, lost weight and grown his hair out. We were skeptical, but if he's really grown his hair out, a four- or five-year deal would seem to be appropriate. "
Lefty - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 08:32 PM EST (#134090) #
Source:rotoworld.com

The Angels withdrew their two-year offer to Paul Byrd before signing Hector Carrasco today.
GM Bill Stoneman said that he was dropping out of the chase for Byrd, who is believed to have a three-year, $20 million offer on the table from another team. The Angels were offering $11 million for two years.
Sherrystar - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 08:52 PM EST (#134091) #
Guys,

As I recover from last nights DM concert, I was wondering... has anyone put together a list of NEXT years potential free agents? (i.e. 2006/2007 FA'S) I'm sure someone here has thought about it?

Just want a general idea of what J.P. can spend that excess cash on if Burnett doesn't end up here (IMO, the Jays will finish second in the bidding).
6-4-3 - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:14 PM EST (#134094) #

As I recover from last nights DM concert, I was wondering... has anyone put together a list of NEXT years potential free agents? (i.e. 2006/2007 FA'S) I'm sure someone here has thought about it?

C'mon, it can't require that much recovery time, it was over at 11.

There's a list of 2006 free agents here: http://www.mlb4u.com/0607FA.html. It looks sketchy, but it's been updated recently, it has BJ Ryan reaching free agency in 2011.

I'm not sure how accurate it is, but big names are: Derrek Lee, Barry Bonds, Carlos Lee, and the Zito / Mulder / Pettite trio.

CaramonLS - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:54 PM EST (#134096) #
Weak class of free agents for middle relief at the very least (not good since we have 2 important bullpen peices leaving).

However, some pretty good bats are on the market.

HollywoodHartman - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:08 PM EST (#134098) #
We don't HAVE to lose them...
Mark - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:10 PM EST (#134099) #
Just a thought, if the jays retain Batista, Lilly, Speier, SS Loogy, Hillenbrand, Cat, and Zaun through this year and let them leave via free agency next year they will have a lot of compensation draft picks. Most of those players should be offered arb and most should be able to get multi year contracts on the market. Furthermore they are all replaceable with youth by next year. Talk about restocking the farm sysytem! or wishful thinking?
XooM - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:44 PM EST (#134100) #
"Second, remember that traditionally, GMs tend to wildly overrate their own players -- not as much as fans like many here on Da Box do, but it's a fair point to raise. Daniels is not a traditional GM, of course, but then neither is Ricciardi"

I was just wondering, what exactly is a traditional GM, and why does JP not count as one?
DepecheJay - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:50 PM EST (#134101) #
Holy S***!! You saw Mode?

How were they?
huckamaniac - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 11:24 PM EST (#134102) #
Did anyone else watch Prime Sports tonight? According to Richard Griffin, Miguel Batista is as good as gone, his teamates don't like him and the organization is worried about him poisoning Chacin. Also, this may have been discussed earlier and I didn't see it, but what about the Jays bringing in Garciaparra? I know some people suggested Frank Thomas earlier I would imagine Nomar would get a similar deal. He has said he's willing to play in the outfield and they could also use him as the DH.
HippyGilmore - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 11:52 PM EST (#134103) #
I have never heard a single negative word uttered about Batista's attitude. In fact, I know I read that he was an important mentor to Chacin in his rookie season. My gut reaction is, like Manny being Manny, this is Richard being Richard.
Sherrystar - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:15 AM EST (#134104) #
DepecheJay,

It was the 7th time I've seen them in Toronto and they were brilliant as usual! Dave's still got it! And if only the Blue Jays crowds made noise like Depeche fans... atmosphere was electric!

I guess the Hudson to the Twins rumours won't surface again now. The Marlins fire sale reminds me of the Jays when J.P. took over...

CaramonLS - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:25 AM EST (#134105) #
I heard Batista's attitude being called into question when he decided he'd stop talking to the media.

VBF - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:27 AM EST (#134106) #
Did anyone else watch Prime Sports tonight? According to Richard Griffin, Miguel Batista is as good as gone, his teamates don't like him and the organization is worried about him poisoning Chacin

I totally disbelieve about him poisoning Chacin. This is a typical Griffin remark to get back at a player that is openly resentful to the media. Gustavo Chacin thanks his *whole* career to Miguel Batista and so far he's been pretty damn good. In batting practice, they're the ultimate 'teacher and protege' combination. These guys carpool together, they're the greatest of friends, and Batista's had nothing but a positive effect on the rookie. Now Batista may not be on the best of terms with some of his teammates, but Griffin is going completely off a tangent with his latest remark.

If any poisoning is going on here, it's Griffin poisoning his readers, IF there are any left.

VBF - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:30 AM EST (#134107) #
I guess the Hudson to the Twins rumours won't surface again now. The Marlins fire sale reminds me of the Jays when J.P. took over...

Except that there are good players being sold :)

Twilight - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:36 AM EST (#134108) #
I totally disbelieve about him poisoning Chacin. This is a typical Griffin remark to get back at a player that is openly resentful to the media. Gustavo Chacin thanks his *whole* career to Miguel Batista and so far he's been pretty damn good. In batting practice, they're the ultimate 'teacher and protege' combination. These guys carpool together, they're the greatest of friends, and Batista's had nothing but a positive effect on the rookie. Now Batista may not be on the best of terms with some of his teammates, but Griffin is going completely off a tangent with his latest remark.

This is what I heard as well...Batista has been nothing but helpful to Gustavo and is always working with him on his mechanics and pitching strategy.
Ron - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:36 AM EST (#134109) #
The LA Times is reporting a source has indicated the Dodgers have offered Furcal a 3yr contract worth close to 40 million.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-spw-dodgers3dec03,0,3543548.story?coll=la-home-sports

If Furcal can pull in more than 13 mil a season, than good for him.
MattAtBat - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 07:32 AM EST (#134112) #
Im just going to come out and say it:

I want the Jays to go after Milton Bradley.

I know all the drawbacks, but an affordable (it is still good to have cost effectiveness, even if you have a little more dough) talent like him is worth it. Jayson Stark over at ESPN mentioned that he's really not as bad as his reputation. His numbers away from Dodger Stadium combined with his previous AL numbers (in his last season with Cleveland) indicate to me that he could be a 20-25 HR guy with an OPS around .850 . And he probably won't came as expensively as some big-ish bats.

Part of me says he's probably the type of player who's better in videogames than in real life, where he can be a cancer in the clubhouse. But the other part of me says talent is talent. This isn't Terrell Owens or Albert Belle. He's only 27, he has a chance to mellow out like Rasheed Wallace eventually did. Sorry for the other sports comparisons.

And the possibilities for nickname will be endless.
huckamaniac - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 08:36 AM EST (#134115) #
I really wasn't sure whether to believe Griffin's comments about Batista, but I heard a clip of an interview with John Gibbons on the radio earlier in the day and when he was asked how Batista felt about the BJ Ryan signing he basically said he didn't know because he hadn't talked to him but Gibbons assumed Batista wasn't happy about it. Obviously I wouldn't know if there really was a problem or not; but if he wasn't going to dealt I'd assume Gibbons would have contacted him to discuss his new role whatever that may be.
Named For Hank - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 08:46 AM EST (#134116) #
but if he wasn't going to dealt I'd assume Gibbons would have contacted him to discuss his new role whatever that may be.

Or maybe Gibby's waiting for the rotation to shake out at the winter meetings before promising something to Batista that might not be there?
CeeBee - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 10:45 AM EST (#134117) #
Eenie meenie meinie mo, whither will Batista go
To the Rangers it might be, tho we shall have to wait and see
but will the big boss clear the bench
For a big bad bat, not Mr. Mench?
:)
Mark - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 10:46 AM EST (#134118) #
Matt, I completely agree in terms of Bradley. I wonder if a couple of potential non-tenders in Lilly and Bradley could be swapped for each other. I think Ted would put up good numbers in Chavez-Ravine. However I don't think the jays will do it. It seems finding cheap talent is no longer on their agenda. Look for him to land in Oakland and bat third and give them a solid defensive outfield with Kotsay and Swisher.

Also I heard Griffin on PTS (or rather watched it) and I don't remember him saying that Batista was poisoning Chacin. What I remember is that he said the Jays want Chacin to take that next step, like the pupil leaving the mentor and making it on his own. Maybe I missed the "poisoning" part. Although he clearly said that no one likes Batista.

As an aside, as much as Griffin drives me crazy with his articles and even though I like a J.P. a lot, Griffin came off as a really nice man and JP often comes of as a jerk. And I can understand why Griffin would be upset with him. When watching JP do interviews with the score/tsn/sportsnet after the Ryan signing he was cranky, aloof, and demeaning to the respective interviewer. When you compare them to the interviews he did on espn/mlb radio he was much friendlier, joking with the interviewers and being very gracious. I can understand why the local media would not like him. However, the constant bashing in the Star and Sun is grossly unprofessional and not the way to get back at someone. In the end it is the reader who suffers, reading garbage, open agenda articles and ultimately having to follow other cities daily’s to know what is happening with our team. (Although Jeff Blair has stepped up the last couple years)
Rob - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 11:22 AM EST (#134119) #
having to follow other cities daily’s to know what is happening with our team. (Although Jeff Blair has stepped up the last couple years)

Blair's always been good. Better in the last year or so? Yes. But he was hardly Sun-quality before.

With Blair and Fordin, the Jays have had very good coverage the last couple of years. I haven't noticed a problem lately because I've avoided reading the lesser papers when it comes to baseball. (Well, I've avoided the Sun entirely, but I'm not eight years old, so that's to be expected.) It's very, very easy to bookmark this page and not the Sun or Star.

He's only 27, he has a chance to mellow out

I don't know about Milton Bradley. I thought he was better than his reputation indicated, then he kept doing things to damage his reputation anyway. I think he's a better RF option than Alex Rios, of course, but if we're talking about character, I doubt J.P. will go out of his way to acquire Bradley.

VBF - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#134120) #
Well, it sort of loses its freshnesss after while, that is talking to the local media. Everyday, seven months a year and sometimes more, he's answering the same eight or so people (Fordin, Wilner, Elliott, extra Sun guy, Griffin, Baker, Blair, etc), so unless he becomes good friends with these guys, it probbaly gets a little dull and nervy. I don't think JP cares about his public image in local Toronto too much, and nor should he.

Mark - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 11:44 AM EST (#134121) #
As I remember when Canada had two teams Larry Millson and Blair basically split duty. Blair seems more involved the past couple years. I could be wrong though.

In case you are interested, Blair has an article in the Globe today that needs a subscription to be read. However, Buster Olney has a link to it in his espn blog that grants you access.
Wildrose - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:05 PM EST (#134122) #
If I'm not mistaken Blair used to to be based in Montreal covering the Expos.

Regarding the Star writers, it seems to be editorial policy to court/manufacture controversy. Cox in Hockey and Feschuck in basketball also seem to go out of their way to antagonize and challenge the establishment.

I much prefer just having the damn news in an insightfull manner.
Wildrose - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 12:17 PM EST (#134123) #
Canada's team for the World Baseball Classic taking shape.
Skills - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 02:30 PM EST (#134125) #
Both the ESPN rumor mill nad Rob Neyer are suggesting the Jays may be interested in Zito. Assuming this is true, is it predicated on their signing him to a long term contract? I would definitely be for getting Zito, but assuming Beane would want prospect arms in return, I'd want him on the condition that we sign him to a contract.
VBF - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 02:55 PM EST (#134127) #
Zito is going to cost a pretty penny right now. Would it be wise to wait and hope the A's keep him until the trade deadline, when the price in a trade will be less?
JayFan0912 - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 03:13 PM EST (#134128) #
One guy I hope the jays make a run at is Brad Wilkerson. His value right now is at its lowest, but there is a lot of hope he will return to form.

In 2004, here are his OPS splits w/wout runners on:
None On 393 times, .902
Runners 179 times, .803

In 2005, these look like this:
None On 408 times, .701, 42 BB/ 112 SO
Runners on 157 times, .884, 42 BB/ 35 SO

So it seems that while his OPS in 2005 is lower ( 756 down from 872 in 2004), it is not because of a huge decline in talent, but because he may have tried to do too much. And, its understandable, the nationals were a lousy offensive team, who did not get on base.

It would be interesting to see what his price would be
Ron - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 03:36 PM EST (#134129) #
Huge blow for Team Canada as ace Rich Harden won't be playing.

http://www.insidebayarea.com/athletics/ci_3275335

"- Pitcher Rich Harden is ahead of schedule in his rehab from surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. Beane said the rehab would prevent Harden from pitching for Canada in the World Baseball Classic in March."

Hopefully Eric Bedard can pick up the slack.

Anders - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 05:12 PM EST (#134130) #
The Mench-anations continue. Apparently the Rangers are offering Mench for Barry Zito. Can't see Billy Beane doing that one.
Maldoff - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 08:52 PM EST (#134131) #
Rotoworld is reporting that Tony Batista has been released from his contract in Japan. Maybe he's the bopper the Jays have been looking for!
david wang - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 09:00 PM EST (#134132) #
Give the bats a new look anyway.
timpinder - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 10:12 PM EST (#134134) #
It's 22:15 Hrs., the night before the MLB GM winter meetings begin. Nothing being reported regarding A.J. Burnett.

J.P. has been quoted saying that he wants to make his free agent signings before the meetings and that the offer to Burnett has an expiry date.

How does this effect his strategy going into the meetings??

Does this mean the Jays are possibly out of the running??

I'm interested in what other people's thoughts are.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 10:26 PM EST (#134135) #
Actually the meetings don't start until Monday (I think). I'm not sure JP said that the offer has an expiry date; I thought he said that if AJ hadn't agreed to sign with the Jays by Monday, JP might go the trade route instead.

Jacko - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 10:33 PM EST (#134136) #
(a) They are playing chicken. I think the Burnett camp must think that if they wait long enough, the Jays will cave and offer him a 5th year.

(b) Based on what I've been reading in the past few days, I'm hopeful that any Burnett offer from the Jays is not going to exceed 11 MM per season, or 4 years in duration. Likely, it will be something very similar to the contract Billy Wagner received from the Mets. If that isn't enough to lure him away from the Cardinals, so be it.

(c) If the Jays get tired of waiting, there are other options that the can and will pursue. Specifically, I'm thinking of Kevin Millwood and Barry Zito. They could possibly gain some negotiating leverage by making some well publicized inquiries about both of those players.

And some unrelated comments:

(d) There's an article over at BP talking about how desperate the Rangers are for pitching. Chances are good that Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Mench will almost be traded for pitching at the meetings. And the Jays have a lot of excess pitching to deal. JP's strategy of stockpiling arms over the past few years is proving to be very prescient.

(e) Hector Carrasco, a 36 year old reliever coming off a career season with the Nationals, scored a 2-year, 6.1 MM deal from the Angels. Ay Carumba. The B.J. Ryan signing is looking better and better...

(f) Am I the only one who thinks the Furcal offer from the Dodgers is insane? 40 MM for 3 years? For a SS who's OPS has been over .800 exactly once? Orlando Hudson might be more valuable on the open market than people realize...
jgadfly - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 11:30 PM EST (#134138) #
Of interest but perhaps of no importance...Howie Clark playing for Mexicali in Mexican Winter League 3rd in BA & SLG% and huff-puff leading the league with 3 triples...Spike Lundberg (Guasave) is 7-1 with 1.96 ERA...also Jonny Gomes hitting .161...also of note Cosby .178 in 45ab & Negron .259 in 58ab for Caguas PRL... catchers Robinson Diaz .615 in 13ab for Licey DR & Quiroz .219 in 32ab for Zulia Vnz...I hope I'm not stepping on anybody's toes or articles in writing
Mylegacy - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 11:38 PM EST (#134139) #
As to the time limit with AJ...

I'm positive I read that JP told AJ's agent that if he was offered a deal at the winter meetings for pitching that he thought he had to take then the offer to AJ would expire at that time. SO, he was telling AJ's agent not to wait too long.

I've tried to find the article to link to but I can't find it... BUT I'm sure I saw (or heard) it.

By the way it's 8.38 PM here in beautiful BC.
BrockLanders - Saturday, December 03 2005 @ 11:56 PM EST (#134140) #
Basically, in a hour, Walt Jocketty pulls out of the Burnett sweepstakes if A.J. and his agent don't take the cardinals offer of 4 years 44 million, PLUS an innings based fifth year of 10 million. So where that leaves the jays is anyone's best guess. Jim Bowden could be only one who could screw JP over now.
Anders - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 12:27 AM EST (#134141) #
(f) Am I the only one who thinks the Furcal offer from the Dodgers is insane? 40 MM for 3 years? For a SS who's OPS has been over .800 exactly once? Orlando Hudson might be more valuable on the open market than people realize...

You're going to be hard pressed trying to find a better shortstop around. The group of ss's Furcal is in include name's like Jeter and Tejada, and those guys are making an awful lot of money. Furcal's just turned 28, steals a lot of bases well, and is one of the better fielding ss in baseball. Maybe he's getting paid a bit too much, but he's a good player

HippyGilmore - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 12:38 AM EST (#134142) #
Furcal's signed, by the way, in case anyone hasn't read yet head on over to Kenny Rosenthal, the guy with all the scoops.

My problem with the Furcal deal isn't the money, because based on the offer he was getting from the Cubs they didn't outbid them by too much, and Furcal is a very valuable player. My problem is the Dodgers have the best defensive shortstop in baseball already on their roster and signed to a long term deal. For the Dodgers, the 13 million should have been spent elsewhere.
Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 12:44 AM EST (#134143) #
You're going to be hard pressed trying to find a better shortstop around. The group of ss's Furcal is in include name's like Jeter and Tejada, and those guys are making an awful lot of money. Furcal's just turned 28, steals a lot of bases well, and is one of the better fielding ss in baseball. Maybe he's getting paid a bit too much, but he's a good player

Furcal is Jeter or Tejada, _without_ the power.

Now, he does have some patience and speed, which makes him a little better than Cesar Izturis. But he's no Jeter (19MM, signed at the market peak) or Tejada (who at 11 MM per season, is the best deal is baseball).

Then again, if Cristian Guzman is worth 4.2 MM per year, maybe Furcal is worth 13 MM.

Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 12:45 AM EST (#134144) #
BTW, what the heck are the Braves going to do now?
Cristian - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 12:51 AM EST (#134145) #
The Braves will go after Julio Lugo although I'd dangle Russ Adams or Aaron Hill and see if they bite.
Anders - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 02:25 AM EST (#134146) #
Now, he does have some patience and speed, which makes him a little better than Cesar Izturis. But he's no Jeter (19MM, signed at the market peak) or Tejada (who at 11 MM per season, is the best deal is baseball).

Furcal is a far superior hitter to Izturis, and it's not particularly close. Furcal also outperformed Izturis defensively this year, according to ZR and RF. Furcal's not quite the batting force that Jeter and Tejada are, but I would say that he's not that far off from them.

rtcaino - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 04:00 AM EST (#134147) #
(d) There's an article over at BP talking about how desperate the Rangers are for pitching. Chances are good that Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Mench will almost be traded for pitching at the meetings. And the Jays have a lot of excess pitching to deal. JP's strategy of stockpiling arms over the past few years is proving to be very prescient.

The definition for prescient for all those who are not readily familiar with the word: Perceiving the significance of events before they occur; "extraordinarily prescient memoranda on the probable course of postwar relations"-R.H.Rovere

Let wait till such a strategy translates itself int9o value in some other form that pitching prospects. Shea Hillenbrand is a good example (Peterson). But in this market at this point in time, hitting is also in need, and pitching has not yet demonstrated itself as being significantly more valuable that hitting. This weekend should go along way to defining the relative value of pitching vs. offense and defense.

Jgadfly: It’s your research, good for your. No one can fault you for that. Thanks for the post. Thanks for the update.
david wang - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 09:05 AM EST (#134148) #
Yeah, they'd probably go teh FA route, but what about Wilson Betemit, here's a young guy who's a SS but was played out of position last year but hit very well, 300/350/440.

I think they shouyld try and find a cheaper veteran to hit against lefties as he wasn't too great last year against them and go sort of John McDonald/Russ Adams like the Jays of last year.
GeoffAtMac - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:49 AM EST (#134149) #

RE: Milton Bradley

Did anybody see this bit about Bradley from Jason Stark?

"OK, it's true Bradley isn't a threat to appear on the cover of Model Citizen Monthly. But he is A) still only 27 years old, B) not half as volatile as he's made out to be and C) a heck of a talent. So he will be traded -- and probably sooner than later. The Dodgers have had nibbles from the Yankees, Astros and Cubs. But the team most interested is (surprise) Oakland, which has never met a talented bargain it didn't like."

Maybe Jeff Kent is just a real jerk, and perhaps his presence fed into Milton's difficult year.

VBF - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:56 AM EST (#134150) #
They are playing chicken. I think the Burnett camp must think that if they wait long enough, the Jays will cave and offer him a 5th year.

Not just the Jays. Braunecker truly thinks his client is worth 5 years, 65-70 million. And he's going to hold as long as possible until someone caves in and offers it, or until he realizes it ain't gonna happen. So, if I'm the Jays right now I'd give him a 45 million, 4 year contract with an option and hope that outbidding the Cards by 5 million should get them to accept.

VBF - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:59 AM EST (#134151) #
On the basis that the Cards offer was 40 million/4years + option, which BrockLanders says is not. So I might be inclined to do 48 million instead of the 45.
VBF - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:18 AM EST (#134152) #
The St. Louis Post Dispatch is reporting today that Burnett 'is prepared to' sign with the Cardinals if they offer him a fifth year. It's up to the Cardinals now.
Brian B. - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#134153) #
I believe the only way we're going to see A.J. Burnett sign in Toronto is with a 5th year guaranteed.
Pistol - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:33 AM EST (#134154) #
"B) not half as volatile as he's made out to be

Maybe Jeff Kent is just a real jerk, and perhaps his presence fed into Milton's difficult year."

This year isn't the first time Bradley has had issues. The Indians were just so fed up with him that they traded him after he hit .321/.421/.501 at age 25. You have to try really hard to be that good and still have a team want to dump you.

This is fun to go through: http://kffl.com/player/5435/mlb.

Bradley has:
* Been frequently injured (his games played are 75, 141, 101, 98 and 77)
* Was suspended for 4 games following a crowd incident
* Called a reporter an 'Uncle Tom'
* Arrested for disorderly conduct
* Spend 3 days in jail as a result of driving away while being give a speeding ticket
* Called Kent a racist
* Home was visited three times this summer by police investigating domestic-violence claims (although Bradley wasn't been charged in any of the incidents)

Jerks are jerks and Bradley looks like a disruptive (and injury prone) jerk. To expect him to change in a new environment is asking for trouble.
Chuck - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:35 AM EST (#134155) #
Am I the only one who thinks the Furcal offer from the Dodgers is insane?

Since the Ryan signing, I think we're all living in glass houses.

Anders - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:58 AM EST (#134156) #
* Was suspended for 4 games following a crowd incident

Was this the time he threw all those balls onto the field? Because that was pretty hilarious. If the Jays were to get more random ballthrowing into the Hornsby Centre, I would be all for it.

greenfrog - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 12:54 PM EST (#134157) #
I think AJ has probably already decided where he's going to sign (whether Toronto, St. Louis, or elsewhere), so long as his baseline requirements are met: say, 4 x $11M. He's going to be a made man no matter what; he's just waiting for the bidding to reach its peak. The two big questions then become: where am I going to enjoy playing the most, and where am I most likely to win?
Sherrystar - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 01:45 PM EST (#134159) #
If A.J. is basing it on who he thinks has a better shot at the playoffs, how would he choose the Jays over the Cards? I don't know if he was ever serious about crossing the border.

It looks as though his agent (who I understand is a rookie) is just using the Jays as leverage.

Time for J.P. to shift his focus to getting Zito and siging him to a long term deal!
PeterG - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 02:19 PM EST (#134161) #
I agree. Let's go after Zito. Maybe Chacin, Gaudin, Cat or Gross would do it. We can always include a better pitching prospect, if necessary, but not McGowan or Janssen.
joemayo - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#134163) #
I agree. Let's go after Zito. Maybe Chacin, Gaudin, Cat or Gross would do it. We can always include a better pitching prospect, if necessary, but not McGowan or Janssen.

i would love to have Zito as our number two, but i really don't think it's going to happen. the A's need a power bat (i can only assume that's what Beane will want in return for Zito) and we don't have one to give up.

and even if they don't want a bat in return, i really don't think Chacin, Gaudin, Cat/Gross would get it done. Gaudin is not as good as his winter-ball stats suggest. we did get him for Kevin Cash after all...

VBF - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 02:45 PM EST (#134164) #
Think about all the teams that will be interested in trading for a 27 year old Cy Young winner. Then think about all the offers that will be made to try and get him, and the Jays will have to beat all of them. And then we're going to have to lock him up for the next 'x' years. It could happen, but the odds are against it.
King Ryan - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 03:29 PM EST (#134166) #
I don't want Zito. The guy is incredibly overrated and would cost more than he's worth. I'd rather have Chacin. If we're going to trade Chacin and all of our prospects, let's get someone who can hit 40 homeruns, not another pitcher.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 03:39 PM EST (#134167) #
I don't like the idea of trading for Zito. Why?

- We would only have him for a year
- We lose a high draft pick in 2007 if/when he signs elsewhere
- Beane is likely to get some serious talent for him, one way or another. I don't mind JP's making minor deals with Beane, but not on this magnitude
- Zito wasn't great in September (6.50 ERA). A minor consideration, and it might not mean much, but still.
Ron - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 03:57 PM EST (#134168) #
One power bat you won't see in a Jays uni is Glaus.

Toronto is one of the teams he can't be traded to. He doesn't dig the cold weather.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=54581
Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 03:59 PM EST (#134169) #
- We lose a high draft pick in 2007 if/when he signs elsewhere

I thought teams _gained_ a high draft pick when they lose free agents (at least when you offer them arbitration)

I just don't know if he's all that much better than what we already have (i.e. Towers, Chacin, Bush, Batista, and Lilly) Then again, all those guys could regress to some degree next year while Zito's level of performance is fairly well established.

timpinder - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 04:00 PM EST (#134170) #
PeterG,
I understand wanting to hold on to McGowan as he has "ACE" potential, but why should Janssen be untouchable?? Isn't he just another Marcum or Banks or even Gaudin with nice Minor League numbers, good control, but only average-plus stuff? I admit I haven't seen him pitch in person, but from the scouting reports I've read he is nothing special.

In the London Free Press today there were 2 pages dedicated to the winter meetings. Apparently Arizona is shopping Vazquez (of course), but also Glaus and LUIS GONZALEZ, who is owed 11.5 million next year. They need starting AND relief pitching, which the Jays have a lot of.

If the Jays don't get Burnett, what is the likelihood of Vazquez and Gonzalez coming over in a blockbuster, say for Chacin, Batista, Frasor, Jackson, Rosario, League and Rios or Gross, or some other similar combination?????????????

It seems as though the Jays-Diamondbacks might be a great fit for each other, especially with one team dumping salary and the other prepared to take it on.

Thoughts?
SK in NJ - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 04:21 PM EST (#134171) #
"Paul Byrd has reached agreement with the Indians on a two-year, $14.25 million contract with a club option for a third season, reports FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal." - Rotoworld.

If Paul Byrd and Esteban Loaiza are getting $7 million annually, I would stay away from this starting pitcher market.
joemayo - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 04:31 PM EST (#134172) #
If the Jays don't get Burnett, what is the likelihood of Vazquez and Gonzalez coming over in a blockbuster, say for Chacin, Batista, Frasor, Jackson, Rosario, League and Rios or Gross, or some other similar combination?????????????

there's no way i trade all that for Vazquez and Gonzalez. Gonzo is 38, has declining numbers the last 3 years (.304/.402/.532, .259/.373/.439, .271/.366/.459) and is owed $11 mill next season.

Vazquez on the other hand would be a nice addition. he pitched well this past season season after an off year with the yanks in 2004. his K/BB went up to 4.17 in '05 from (an unipressive) 2.50 in '04.

Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 04:56 PM EST (#134174) #
...why should Janssen be untouchable? Isn't he just another Marcum or Banks or even Gaudin with nice Minor League numbers, good control, but only average-plus stuff? I admit I haven't seen him pitch in person, but from the scouting reports I've read he is nothing special.

This is a fair observation. Based on his draft pedigree (4th round), Janssen's rapid advancement was completely shocking last year. His scouting profile does remind me of Banks, Marcum, and Bush, but you can't really argue with the results. Given that he doesn't even occupy a spot on the 40-man yet, I would be inclined to hang on to him for another year and see what he does in AA/AAA.

Luis Gonzalez will be 38 next year and looks like he's declining rapidly. That, and he bats LH (Jays need a big RH bat more). Glaus is intriguing, but the D-Backs would need to take someone off the Jays hands (maybe Koskie?)

I wonder how much money Piazza wants to be a part time catcher and DH. Given the jays current needs, he would fit in quite well. The Jays need a righthanded hitter with power, and could also use someone to give Quiroz and Zaun a break. Frank Thomas is another righthanded hitter who would probably come cheap.

rtcaino - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 05:08 PM EST (#134175) #
""Luis Gonzalez will be 38 next year and looks like he's declining rapidly. That, and he bats LH (Jays need a big RH bat more). Glaus is intriguing, but the D-Backs would need to take someone off the Jays hands (maybe Koskie?)

I wonder how much money Piazza wants to be a part time catcher and DH. Given the jays current needs, he would fit in quite well. The Jays need a righthanded hitter with power, and could also use someone to give Quiroz and Zaun a break. Frank Thomas is another righthanded hitter who would probably come cheap. ""

Why do we need a RH hitter? I figure a more pressing need would be a Left handed batter.
Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 05:40 PM EST (#134176) #
LH: Cat, Koskie, Hinske, Gross, Adams
RH: Wells, Rios, Johnson, Hillenbrand, McDonald
switch hitters: Zaun, Hudson (weak against LHP)

Looks pretty even to me. Though I keep hearing JP saying that he's looking for a RH bat, not a LH one. Maybe he wants someone to balance out the Koskie-Hilly-Hinske trio?

costanza - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 05:55 PM EST (#134178) #
One power bat you won't see in a Jays uni is Glaus. Toronto is one of the teams he can't be traded to. He doesn't dig the cold weather.

This cracks me up. Did I miss something, or wouldn't being in Toronto mean he wouldn't have to actually play in cold weather at home?

BrockLanders - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 06:18 PM EST (#134179) #
FYI Vazquez has Toronto on the list of teams he can't be traded to. At least thats what I read.
Pistol - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 06:26 PM EST (#134180) #
"I understand wanting to hold on to McGowan as he has "ACE" potential, but why should Janssen be untouchable?? Isn't he just another Marcum or Banks or even Gaudin with nice Minor League numbers, good control, but only average-plus stuff?"

I don't know that Janssen has McGowan potential, but it's not uncommon for pitchers to just come out of nowhere to be great. Janssen dominated all three levels he pitched at in his first full pro season which isn't too common. I'd be reluctant to trade any of McGowan, Janssen or Purcey unless it brought back an All Star level player.
Arms Longfellow - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 06:59 PM EST (#134181) #
These guys who refuse to play for northern teams are hilarious. They do know that baseball season is during the SUMMER right? Are they that big of wussies they can't even handle the Canadian spring?
timpinder - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:18 PM EST (#134182) #
Peter Gammons at ESPN just wrote an Insider article that A.J. Burnett will be signing with someone by tomorrow afternoon.

Keeping fingers crossed.
BrockLanders - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:26 PM EST (#134183) #
Baseball players aren't too keen on geography nor climates. :)
HollywoodHartman - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:29 PM EST (#134184) #
Espn is reporting the Marlins have dealt Paul Lo Duca to the Mets for 21-year-old right-hander Gaby Hernandez and another minor leaguer pitcher to be named. So the Marlins payroll is down to $7.5M I'm assuming (every player making the league minimum...)
einsof - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:33 PM EST (#134185) #
Our obstacle to getting Burnett isn't St. Louis, its
Mrs. Burnett & the fact that AJ grew up a Cards fan...
Maldoff - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:35 PM EST (#134186) #
Any word on whether or not Gaudin was claimed by another team yet? I certainly hope not. He seems to have a little bit of a future. It'd be a shame to lose him because Tampa called him up too early!
Ron - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:36 PM EST (#134187) #
Molina and Ramon are still floating out there. Both would be upgrades for the Jays at the catcher department.

There's not too many teams remaining that are actively lookiing for a starting catcher. This could be a good time to get involved with either player knowing the Mets won't be there to drive up the price.
Dave Till - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:37 PM EST (#134188) #
I get the sneaking suspicion that Burnett is going to be a Cardinal by this time tomorrow.

This just in: Jeffrey Loria is trading his son-in-law, David Samson, to the New York Yankees for two future daughter-in-laws to be named later.

How many people are going to be watching Marlins games next year? 16? And how many franchises is Loria going to be allowed to ruin?
Sherrystar - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:42 PM EST (#134189) #
Agreed, let's face reality and realize that Burnett will be a Card by tomorrow afternoon. On to bigger and better things for the Jays (or so I hope!)

Once again we should laugh at MLB and the Marlins situation. What a joke. And I thought the NHL was bad! Good wrok "Budlight" Selig!
Ryan B. - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 07:57 PM EST (#134190) #
Our good friend Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Cubs are now making a major run at Burnett since they lost out on Furcal. I don't see why they'd want to add pitching when what they really needs is a leadoff hitter and a couple of outfielders. Of course, if they add Pierre they'd fix two of those three problems.
John Northey - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 08:13 PM EST (#134191) #
Good point about Loria Dave. The worst thing any fan of a team could ever hear is that Loria is coming to town to 'save' their team.

Now, where to move the Marlins since none of the popular spots have stadiums? Hrm. I hear there is an empty one in a place where they once supported baseball better than anyone else, where there is a large population, and the potential for a downtown stadium to be built later with some govt assistance. Y'know, Montreal. :)
CaramonLS - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 08:32 PM EST (#134192) #
The fire sale continues... just to give you an idea of who is gone from FLA's starting line up:

C: Lo Duca (traded to mets)
1B: Delgado (traded to mets)
2B: Castillo (traded to twins)
3B: Lowell (traded to red sox)
SS: Alex Gonzalez (Free Agent)
LF: Cabrera (still with the team, expected to remain)
CF: Pierre (still with the team, expects to be dealt)
RF: Encarnacion (Free Agent)

SP1: Willis (still with the team, expected to remain)
SP2: Beckett (traded to redsox)
SP3: Burnett (Free agent)
SP4: Moelher (Free agent)
SP5: Vargas (Still with the team)

Setup: Mota (traded to redsox)
CL: Todd Jones (Free Agent)
Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 08:33 PM EST (#134193) #
Agreed, let's face reality and realize that Burnett will be a Card by tomorrow afternoon. On to bigger and better things for the Jays (or so I hope!)

Hopefully you're right about bigger and better. So far, though, it looks like my head will stay nice and unshaven. :)

Sherrystar - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 08:44 PM EST (#134194) #
Yup, looks like you can put that razor away... for now...

It's interesting that I don't see the Jays mentioned in most of the rumours swirling out there before the meetings begin... maybe that's a good sign allowing J.P. to work in the background to try to steal the show?

Just waiting for the Burnett news to break and see his picture in the Cards uniform and then hear J.P. say the Jays offered more money but he was never serious about coming here...

I sure hope the next 4 days are exciting... the Ryan siging got me expecting too much (i.e. Giles + Burnett!)

SK in NJ - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 09:22 PM EST (#134196) #
Is it wrong to hope that Burnett signs elsewhere? Honestly, the thought of five years and a ridiculous of money for AJ seems less reasonable by each passing day.

Last year when the Jays lost out on Clement, their back-up plan was (eventually) moving Batista to the bullpen and Chacin in the rotation. Needless to say, that worked out fairly well (Chacin for the whole season and Batista for 4 out of 6 months). Hopefully history repeats itself, and JP gets better value going to a "back-up" plan.
King Ryan - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 09:26 PM EST (#134197) #
Well you aren't the only one. I never really wanted to sign Burnett at all costs, but after spending so much on Ryan, I definitely don't want to pusue Burnett now. Come on JP, get us some hitting. If I see Shea Hillenbrand batting cleanup on opening day next season, with Corey Koskie hitting fifth and Hinske playing first base, urggh...
SK in NJ - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:01 PM EST (#134198) #
"The Cubs are among the teams looking at acquiring Brad Wilkerson, who is considered expendable in Washington.
The rumored Wilkerson-for-Ronny Cedeno deal never seemed likely, and if it did interest the Cubs, it likely won't now that Rafael Furcal has chosen the Dodgers. The Cubs do have Jerome Williams and some other pitching they could use to try to acquire Wilkerson. The Nationals are looking for a center fielder, but it's unclear if Corey Patterson is of any interest to GM Jim Bowden. Wilkerson is also involved in the Javier Vazquez rumors with the Diamondbacks." - Rotoworld.

I wonder if Ricciardi will get in on this. Wilkerson is coming off a poor season, so he likely won't command a lot. An outfielder with 30 HR power and a ton of walks. That would look good hitting behind Wells.

Although, he's coming off a poor year (strike one), he strikes out A LOT (strike two), and he doesn't hit for average (JP: "you're out!"). Guess that eliminates Brad.

The suspense is killing me. I hope a move is done soon.
Jordan - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:02 PM EST (#134199) #
JP's instincts have been telling him not to guarantee five years for Burnett. I think he should trust those instincts. As good as Burnett could be, and as advantageous as it would be to have a lot of pitching depth to deal from, the Jays are (even with the payroll boost) still a mid-market team at best, and those kinds of teams can't take a lot of risks. I would not risk fifty-five million guaranteed dollars on AJ Burnett.

What everyone -- JP and us fans -- needs to keep foremost in mind (and I think we're all doing it) is that the Jays are not under the gun to win it all in 2006. They need to be contenders next year, and I believe they will be, but they'll also have good teams and more money to spend in 2007 and 2008. This off-season is just the first major step in that direction.
Jonny German - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:08 PM EST (#134200) #
How about Rios for Wilkerson?
Keith Talent - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:10 PM EST (#134201) #

Our good friend Ken Rosenthal is reporting

Ken "Astros in 7" Rosenthal as he should forever be called.

HollywoodHartman - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:14 PM EST (#134202) #
The STL page on scout.com is reporting that AJ is going to the Cards for 5 years.
Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:20 PM EST (#134203) #
If Paul Byrd is worth 7 MM per season, then Chacin, Towers, and Bush are GOLD Jerry, GOLD!

We just need to find ourselves a freaking cleanup hitter. And it's probably going to have to come via a trade.

Arms Longfellow - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:22 PM EST (#134204) #
I'm really surprised the Yankees aren't swooping in and signing Burnett for ... well whatever he wants. How is it possible they're going through an entire off season where they got beat in the first round of the playoffs without making a single free agent signing?
Jacko - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:35 PM EST (#134205) #
Anyone care to guess what the Marlins starting lineup is going to be like in '06? It's going to be like a real life version of "Major League":

C: Josh Willingham
1B: Joe Dillon
3B: Miguel Cabrera
RF: Jeremy Hermida
CF: Mike Colangelo

SP: Dontrelle Willis
SP: Brian Moehler
SP: Anibal Sanchez
SP: Yusmeiro Petit
SP: Scott Olson
CL: Travis Bowyer

I have no idea who will play 2B, SS, or the other OF position. In fact, most of those positions, other than Willis and Cabrera, are wild ass guesses.

If I was a Marlins fan, I would try to view the glass as being half full. They are going to get to see a lot of young prospects play. Some of them might be good right away.
Chuck - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:37 PM EST (#134206) #
Our good friend Ken Rosenthal

Ugh. I find Rosenthal tiresome. I don't understand his ubiquity these days.

From a piece he wrote yesterday: The reality is that Colletti probably can't fix everything in one off-season. But unlike his predecessor, Paul DePodesta, he's targeting the right kinds of players.

Geez, much of an axe to grind?

fhines - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:39 PM EST (#134207) #
Well they did sign Farnsworth the other day. That's a far cry from the usual, though. Maybe they're out of money - apparently they lost $50-$85 million last year. Can't say I was sad to read that.
joemayo - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:42 PM EST (#134208) #
I'm really surprised the Yankees aren't swooping in and signing Burnett for ... well whatever he wants. How is it possible they're going through an entire off season where they got beat in the first round of the playoffs without making a single free agent signing?

because they lost somewhere between $50 and $85 million last season. a $200 million payroll and $110 million lost in revenue sharing and luxury taxes will do that to you. they can afford the likes of Kyle Farnsworth for 3/$17 but not BJ Ryan 5/$47. this is good news for the rest of baseball.

Pistol - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:47 PM EST (#134209) #
What everyone -- JP and us fans -- needs to keep foremost in mind (and I think we're all doing it) is that the Jays are not under the gun to win it all in 2006.

Forget that. Some of us have bets on the Jays to win it all at 60-1!

Nick - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:56 PM EST (#134210) #
Here is the link from the Daily News concerning the Yanks' supposed financial "woes:"

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/371465p-316044c.html

This situation is only temporary. Once the new stadium opens in 2009, concession revenues and luxury box revenues will multiply several times over.
Bones - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:58 PM EST (#134211) #
Rios for Wilkerson would be an excellent deal. Wilkerson would give the Jays a nice bat in RF, while Rios might just be "toolsy" enough to interest Bowden.

I've never been that high on Rios. He's only hit well in one season of his career, and that was back in 2003 in AA. Even then, his performance was almost entirely driven by his high BA. If the Jays were able to get Wilkerson for him, I would qualify that as an outright steal.
Rob - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 10:59 PM EST (#134212) #
CF: Mike Colangelo

That won't be a hinderance to attendance. If I lived in the Miami area, I would pay good money to see Mike Colangelo play centre. It's along the lines of Ice Berg in LF, although not as depressing.

Arms Longfellow - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:14 PM EST (#134213) #
Oops what I meant to say is it's weird not seeing the Yankees make a single BIG free agent signing (as there's still minor ones left, but all the big ones are gone now, pending Burnett). But if they can't because they lost money, well, that's cool!

I still hate the Red Sox more though.
golouis - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:44 PM EST (#134214) #
"Anyone care to guess what the Marlins starting lineup is going to be like in '06? It's going to be like a real life version of "Major League""

The best part about this being that the premise of Major Leauge was to do badly so they could move to Miami.
timpinder - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:53 PM EST (#134215) #
If it's true that Burnett is signing with the Cards, I will be VERY disappointed. There's going to be 20 teams going after Zito and Vazquez. Zito's getting traded for hitters the Jays don't have, and Vazquez is going to be packaged with Glaus, and both of them have T.O. on their no trade list. Sorry, but this team is not going to the playoffs with Halladay and four #3 or #4 starters.

I don't want to wait for 2 or 3 more years for a dominating rotation of Halladay, Purcey, McGowan, and Romero to develop.

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed. If they get Burnett, a big bat and a solid bat, they have a legitimate shot at the wild card.
rtcaino - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:55 PM EST (#134216) #
""I still hate the Red Sox more though.""

I hate them both as much as anyone could possible hate a sports franchise. Them playing each other in the playoffs presents an epic catch 22, the likes of choosing between drinking pee and eating poo. Graphic I know.
BrockLanders - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:56 PM EST (#134217) #
Supposedly, Burnett was seen in Lambert-St. Louis Airport this evening. So it looks like the writing is on the wall. Maybe its the best thing for the organization not to sign him.
rtcaino - Sunday, December 04 2005 @ 11:57 PM EST (#134218) #
""Sorry, but this team is not going to the playoffs with Halladay and four #3 or #4 starters.""

I don't know how people expect that AJ in the AL east is going to be a number two starter.
joemayo - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:18 AM EST (#134220) #
Supposedly, Burnett was seen in Lambert-St. Louis Airport this evening. So it looks like the writing is on the wall. Maybe its the best thing for the organization not to sign him.

do you have a link for this?

slitheringslider - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:34 AM EST (#134221) #
As much as I like Alex Rios and I feel like he would pan out(I am not being sarcastic), Jim Bowden would have to be an idiot to trade Brad Wilkerson for him... But... I am not entirely convinced he is not as he did sign Christian Guzman to a multi-year deal.
VBF - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:37 AM EST (#134222) #
From what I understand, revenues made by the club were allocated to the YES Network, which comes my question:

Isn't that against General Accepted Accounting Principles?

Maybe the US Government should look into Steinbrenner's statements. He is a convicted conspiracy felon and was heavily involved in Watergate. So much for the track record...
CaramonLS - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:44 AM EST (#134224) #
Last year it was Wilkerson for Wells, pretty sure it hasn't gone down by *that* much.
Jacko - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:48 AM EST (#134226) #
Nope.

YES paid the Yankees less than the going rate for the Yankeee' local TV rights. Yankee profits go down, YES profits go up.

Nothing illegal about it. Though now that there's revenue sharing, MLB is supposedly investigating.

However, I doubt anything will come of it. Many teams sell their broadcasting rights to the same entity that owns them for less than what they should. It's a time honoured tradition.
BrockLanders - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:53 AM EST (#134227) #
jmoney - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 01:33 AM EST (#134228) #
A link to another message board? That's weak.
timpinder - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:25 AM EST (#134229) #
"I don't know how people expect that AJ in the AL east is going to be a #2 starter"

If the Jays got him, his CAREER 3.73 ERA, .230 BAA, and 1.28 WHIP put him right there with Beckett and Harden as one of the top three #2 starters in the AL.
rtcaino - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:29 AM EST (#134230) #
""Brad Wilkerson - OF - Nationals
The Cubs are among the teams looking at acquiring Brad Wilkerson, who is considered expendable in Washington.
The rumored Wilkerson-for-Ronny Cedeno deal never seemed likely, and if it did interest the Cubs, it likely won't now that Rafael Furcal has chosen the Dodgers. The Cubs do have Jerome Williams and some other pitching they could use to try to acquire Wilkerson. The Nationals are looking for a center fielder, but it's unclear if Corey Patterson is of any interest to GM Jim Bowden. Wilkerson is also involved in the Javier Vazquez rumors with the Diamondbacks. Dec. 4 - 9:10 pm et
Source: Washington Post""

I'd give up quite a bit to nab this guy. JYD can pitch?

Haha- "I just saw Burnett at the airport!"

Ya, well I just saw Elvis at the 7-11 on the corner of University and King in Waterloo. He was buying a slurpee.
rtcaino - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:40 AM EST (#134231) #
""If the Jays got him, his CAREER 3.73 ERA, .230 BAA, and 1.28 WHIP put him right there with Beckett and Harden as one of the top three #2 starters in the AL.""

I realize that. However, you present very crude data. Harden posted those numbers pitching in the AL. AJ's and Beckett's stats have to be adjusted. I believe the rule of thumb is adding half an earned run in switching from AL to NL. Though good K/9 rates and G/F ratios may be correlated with an easier transition. That would make sense. I wonder if that has been investigated. Any of you stat heads know? Magpie? Datatable?
rtcaino - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:42 AM EST (#134232) #
** NL to AL

(three posts in a row. Must be exam time.)
Noah - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:29 AM EST (#134234) #
While I am definitly disappointed in not getting burnett, what we should start thinking about is what can JP do with the excess cap room we now have. We had all this money earmarked for Burnett and Giles so what happens with it now?

Maybe JP starts to look back at possible deals for abreu or dunn. Previously their high salary was too much for the team to handle, but perhaps it will be something worth looking into now. If we can pick up a huge bat like one of them Id feel ok going into the season with a rotation of Halladay, Chacin, Lilly, Towers, Batista/Bush/McGowan...
Thomas - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:16 AM EST (#134236) #
Ken "Astros in 7" Rosenthal as he should forever be called.

Joke wasn't funny the first time. It's not funny now.

Twilight - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:55 AM EST (#134239) #
[quote]Ya, well I just saw Elvis at the 7-11 on the corner of University and King in Waterloo. He was buying a slurpee.[/quote]

Would you be the other Jays fan in Waterloo?

lol...
Twilight - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 05:19 AM EST (#134240) #
Excuse my other-bulletin-board quote code, I keep forgetting.
timpinder - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:01 AM EST (#134243) #
Noah,
Everything I've read recently is that Cinci is shopping Wily Mo Pena and Kearns and is holding onto Dunn.

I wonder if adding Kearns to DH and Mench in RF, with the addition of Ryan and a healthy Doc, is enough to muster up 15 more wins to make a run at the wildcard????



timpinder - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:05 AM EST (#134244) #
Caino,
Good point regarding the transition. I would still feel a lot better with someone other than Lilly as my #2 starter though. Too bad Vazquez and Glaus won't come here, the Jays and D-Backs are the perfect fit for a trade.
Jacko - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 08:33 AM EST (#134247) #
I realize that. However, you present very crude data. Harden posted those numbers pitching in the AL. AJ's and Beckett's stats have to be adjusted. I believe the rule of thumb is adding half an earned run in switching from AL to NL. Though good K/9 rates and G/F ratios may be correlated with an easier transition. That would make sense. I wonder if that has been investigated. Any of you stat heads know? Magpie? Datatable?

It's actually worse than that with Burnett. Florida has one of the best pitcher's parks in MLB, and AJ took full advantage of it:

2005 home: 2.95 ERA, 88.1 IP, 34/102 BB/K
2005 road: 3.80 ERA, 120.2 IP, 45/96 BB/K

2004 home: 2.80 ERA, 74 IP, 29/72 BB/K
2004 road: 5.09 ERA, 46 IP, 9/41 BB/K

2002 home: 2.55 ERA, 102.1 IP, 49/118 BB/K
2002 away: 4.06 ERA, 102 IP, 41/85 BB/K 2002 road:

Named For Hank - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 08:40 AM EST (#134248) #
From Jeff Blair this morning:
J.P. Ricciardi says there is no Plan B for the Toronto Blue Jays when it comes to addressing their starting pitching needs -- and that there is nothing more he can offer free agent A.J. Burnett beyond the guaranteed five-year package they put on the table over the weekend, worth between $52-million and $55-million (all figures U.S.) in base salary.

...

Ricciardi said the Blue Jays will not be a player in trade talks surrounding Zito because the Oakland Athletics are looking for several pitchers in return and that would be counterproductive for the Jays.

Failing to land Burnett would force the Blue Jays to figure out an alternative means of addressing their offensive deficiencies because the plan had been to trade Miguel Batista after signing Burnett.
Lots of info to digest there, and more in the article itself.
Jacko - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 08:43 AM EST (#134249) #
Uh oh.

Don't like the fact that the deal on the table is for 5 years...

Named For Hank - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 08:52 AM EST (#134250) #
Another article by Jeff Blair this morning tells us that Roy Halladay will skip the World Baseball Classic and that J.P. has a contract extension, to be announced today or tomorrow. Also a funny Yankees story.

A lot of Blair's information seems to involve Paul Godfrey; there was some speculation before about where Blair's inside information was coming from -- is it maybe the president of the team?

Wherever it's coming from, it's always good.
Pistol - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:04 AM EST (#134251) #
Ricciardi said the Blue Jays will not be a player in trade talks surrounding Zito because the Oakland Athletics are looking for several pitchers in return and that would be counterproductive for the Jays.

Good. Zito wouldn't seem to be that good of a fit at the RC and given the players and dollars needed to get him isn't the best use of resources.

Maldoff - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:07 AM EST (#134252) #
I've pretty much determined that Burnett is going to the Cardinals, and I don't necessarily think this is a bad thing. While I agree that he COULD be the number 2 pitcher we have been looking for, he COULD also be the next Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, etc. And I think that everyone is forgetting that at this time last year, we all thought Ted Lilly would be that great number 2 pitcher, coming off of an All Star year and all.

Basically, I think the strength of the Jays right now is the pitching. If we could upgrade the lineup, I think that would be enough to make up the 15 games.
Leigh - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:27 AM EST (#134254) #
According to Rotoworld, Russ Branyan could be had for very little (Brewers are looking to use Bill Hall at thirdbase).

Branyan represents a better DH option than exists internally for the Jays, no?
Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:42 AM EST (#134255) #
Branyan's career line is .232/.327/.480. Hinske's is .258/.335/.430. The difference is that Hinske has faced a significant number of lefties in his career. If you gave them 450 plate appearances, 95% against righties, I'd bet that they would put up similar offensive numbers. Branyan's would probably be somewhat better in the power department; Hinske would get on base more.
HoJu - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:48 AM EST (#134256) #
Just thought I would mention that the Carter/Alomar deal was 15 years ago today. Wow.
the shadow - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:50 AM EST (#134257) #
At this years winter meetings I expect JP to make as many deals as he made at the meetings last year :-)
SK in NJ - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 10:26 AM EST (#134261) #
Blair mentioned that the Jays have expressed interest in Reggie Sanders. Is that really the right path to take? He's a one year bandaid at best. The Jays would be better off going after Nomar, Thomas, or Piazza in that case.
Leigh - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 10:35 AM EST (#134262) #
I'd bet that they would put up similar offensive numbers

Agreed. I just went back to look at Branyan's baseball-reference page again. It seems that I was selectively looking at 2004 with the Brewers (.378/.490) and 2002 with the Reds (.349/.516). My mistake.

joemayo - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 10:38 AM EST (#134263) #
Blair mentioned that the Jays have expressed interest in Reggie Sanders. Is that really the right path to take? He's a one year bandaid at best. The Jays would be better off going after Nomar, Thomas, or Piazza in that case.

with the lack of depth in this year's FA class, it might be better for JP to sign a one year bandaid and then go after a big name FA next off season rather than spend the farm on a trade this year. someone like Carlos Lee, who i believe is a FA after next season, would be a nice addition.

i have doubts as to whether or not the guys you mentioned would provide much better numbers than Reggie Sanders next year, unless they were healthy of course (which is a big if).

Pistol - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 10:43 AM EST (#134264) #
And Reggie Sanders can play the OF whereas those other suggested names can't.

Craig B - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 10:55 AM EST (#134265) #
The perception that the current year is a "bad free agent year" happens very often, almost every year. Two of the principal elements of this are:

1) the "grass is greener on the other side". Let's use Carlos Lee as an example... Lee is on a huge contract that's only going to get bigger, and last year he produced less offensively than Shea Hillenbrand, and considerably less (per PA) than Frank Catalanotto. What you can't have always looks more attractive than what you can!

2) the free agent pool in subsequent years always loks huge - and then it shrinks by 50% (or often more) before you even get a crack at those players. A large number of player negotiate extensions to their current contract, a substantial number are injured during the season, a similarly substantial number lose effectiveness and no longer look like a reasonable option.

A year with a bumper crop of good available free agents, *once November rolls around*, is quite rare. It's nice to have some money socked away for contingency's sake when those opportunities arise, but gambling your plans on it happening - not so good.
Flex - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 10:57 AM EST (#134266) #
Wouldn't Rondell White be a better option than Sanders? Admittedly not as much power, but strikes out much less.
Ryan B. - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:18 AM EST (#134267) #
I'm kind of nervous now with regard to how much better this team is going to get. I was never a big fan of signing AJ Burnett but after reading Blair's piece today I never realized how much was contingent on Burnett signing.

This team needs a #2 starter and two big bats. Without Burnett JP has no plans of improving the rotation and can't trade Batista for a bat. Things are really starting to get sketchy.

The Jays are enamoured with Reggie Sander's because he's been in the playoffs the last four seasons. They seem to think he carries some magic potion with him that makes the team he's with a winner. Note to the Jays, Sander's joined already competitive teams. If he comes to Toronto he'll help, but he won't push the team over the hump. I love the Jays like I would my own child by they aren’t the 2000 D'Backs or 2003 Cardinals, just one or two pieces away.

Fortunately I think JP has the ability to get creative with trades, so maybe not all will be lost.
Mike D - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:27 AM EST (#134268) #
What you can't have always looks more attractive than what you can!

It's so true, at least for baseball fans. It's strange -- economists and legal theorists have debated the "endowment effect", in which people tend to value goods that they already own more highly than they would on the open market; in other words, the price you would demand to sell something is higher than the price you would pay to buy it if you didn't already own it. Some economists subscribe to the theory, some don't.

But on Batter's Box, there seems to be a "reverse endowment effect," in which members seem to wildly overvalue any shiny-looking player from another club. "Lyle Overbay? If I'm Doug Melvin, I don't even start talking to the Jays unless the offer includes Hill, Adams, Chacin, League and McGowan. Plus prospects."

I mean, there have been some very substantial trade offers proposed for Austin Kearns -- believe me, if Austin Kearns was a Blue Jay for the past two years, there'd be a sizeable "Trade Kearns for a sack of baseballs" contingent.
Mike D - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:31 AM EST (#134269) #
Another example: Over the lengths of their careers, Eric Hinske is the #10 most similar batter to Brad Wilkerson. And they're the same age.
joemayo - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:33 AM EST (#134270) #
i don't think i'd put Hillenbrand or Catalanotto in the same class as Carlos Lee. using VORP alone shows a significant difference (b/w Lee and Cat anyways). Lee 34.3, Hillenbrand 32.5, Cat 26.4. i'm not saying Lee is a superstar by any means, just that he would be a significant upgrade over any of our corner OFs of the past 3-4 years - if he doesn't command a significant upgrade over his current $8 million contract.

Lee's OBP in 2005 was a 5 year low based on his career numbers and thus, so was his OPS. Hillenbrand's OPS last year (.792) was not considerably less than Lee's (.811), but when compared to their career averages - .825 and .775 respectively - they are significant differences.
danjulien - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:44 AM EST (#134271) #
Thank you Mike D. This is something I've been discussing with my friends since the day the season ended. How many players can actully improve this team in a big way? The Jays have a bunch of above average players and then a couple good ones and a couple great ones. BJ Ryan instead of Batista seems like an obvious improvement(contingent on many factors of course). I don't think the bullpen can be improved any further and consider it the single best part of our team.
As for the rotation...there's one great starter(Roy), one rook and number 5 starter who had great seasons(Chacin and Towers), an incredibly inconsistent lefty and then a few guys who could take the last spot in the rotation now including Bush and Batista. It can be improved because we can't expect Chacin and Towers to put up the same numbers and Roy has become an injury prone number one. So going out and getting Burnett or Washburn I believe actully improves this team.

If you look at the OF, you don't get much better than Vernon Wells combined offense/defense. The platoon in LF is a quite effective number 2 spot combo. Rios has been dissapointing and an average player. The obvious improvement is of Rios in RF, however what if him and/or Gross find their power stroke...then there's no improvement needed...

And in the OF...hinske/koskie have become whipping boys but they are effective players. Hinske has been maddening since his ROY year and Koskie dissapointed last year but he also played injured. Both of these guys are top 5 in the Blue Jays in pitches per plate appearance, something overlooked that helps wear down the starter and get to the bullpen quicker. The middle infield is packed with above average players and Hillenbrand was probably the best batter last year.

So what to improve? We need a power bat...but Wilkerson at (.405 SLG) last year would rank 7th in Jays regulars' behind such hated people as sir Hinske...

The point of this rant? We have needs yes but let's not discount that these are talented players who could easily rebound. We can't expect the same production from Zaun, Chacin and Towers but maybe more can be expected from Rios/Gross, Hinkse, Koskie and Lilly. Unfortunately, it's not just a mathematical equation...
Jonny German - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:51 AM EST (#134272) #
This team needs a #2 starter

Last year, the 15th best starter in the AL had a VORP of 40.5 (Kenny Rogers). The 28th best starter had a VORP of 30.4 (Scott Kazmir). If that's the range for a #2 starter, consider:

Gus Chacin in 2005 had a VORP of 38.4
Josh Towers in 2005 had a VORP of 34.1
Ted Lilly in 2004 had a VORP of 44.6

In other words, the potential is already there for the Jays to have 3 "#2 starters" in addition to Roy Halladay in 2006. 4 if you count Dave Bush, which I certainly do. 5 if you count Miguel Batista, which I don't think is unreasonable.

Oh, our buddy A.J.? VORP of 33.1 in 2005.

Ryan Day - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 11:56 AM EST (#134273) #
Actually, Reggie Sanders hasn't been in the playoffs for the past four years, unless the 2003 Pirates somehow made the playoffs and everyone forgot about it.

Still, he's made it in 2000, 2002, 2002, 2004, and 2005, which is a pretty nice run. Less impressive is the fact that he only hit 188/283/298 in 56 playoff games through 2004.

Oh, and apparently his middle name is "Laverne". Does anyone really want an outfielder who can't hit in the post-season called "Laverne"?

Pistol - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:03 PM EST (#134275) #
Does anyone really want an outfielder who can't hit in the post-season called "Laverne"?

Surely.

Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:06 PM EST (#134276) #
For players aged 27-29, it's probably best to look at career lines rather than 2005 lines as a marker for reasonable 1-2 year offensive expectations. So, for instance, Carlos Lee's career line is .284/.337/.488 (OPS+ of 110); Hillenbrand's is .288/.327/.448 (OPS+ of 100); Catanalotto's is .297/.359/.456 (OPS+ of 109); Hinske's is .258/.335/.430 (OPS+ of 98). Cat is 31, and probably the safest projection for him involves more of a discount than for the others.

Lee is a better player than any of the current Jays listed above. It's really no surprise that the Brewers exercised his $8.5 million option recently, notwithstanding his modestly disappointing 2005 season. He is not a terrific bargain at this price, but he would provide what the Jays need in their lineup, if he could be acquired. Somehow, I suspect that the Brewers want to keep him, but depending on the two team's circumstances in mid-season, he might be an interesting trade deadline target.
Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:16 PM EST (#134279) #
Pistol wins the "pun of the day" award. The prize is a Mike Piazza nerf bat.
The Bone - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 12:48 PM EST (#134281) #
Trot Nixon is apparently available, albeit rumoured to possibly go with Clement to the Phillies for what the Red Sox see as a RF upgrade in Abreu. Nixon's making 7.5 million, has always played a goof RF and hits well enough that I'd be comfortable with him pencilled into the #4 slot behind Wells. I think any offer to the Red Sox would have to centre around the O-Dog and it may be that the Red Sox don't want to deal within the division...Also the possibility of getting in on a 3-way with the Phillies or simply trading with the Phillies if they acquired Trot...the Phillies want pitching, pitching, pitching, which we do have.

Also, I think when people suggest we need a true #2, it really means a 1a which means a 2nd top 15 starter in the AL in VORP...most playoff teams have this characteristic (in 2005, CWS had 4, Ana had 3, Oak had 3, Nyy only had 1 and Bos had none but both had monster offences, Cle similarly had 1 and a great offence, while Toronto, Minnesota and Texas each had 1...I'd say its a pretty strong correlation to overall performance
Jacko - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 01:16 PM EST (#134282) #
Nixon's making 7.5 million, has always played a goof RF and hits well enough that I'd be comfortable with him pencilled into the #4 slot behind Wells.

Don't like Nixon. He's starting to become injury prone, and he can't hit lefties at all. We've already got a couple guys on the roster who can't handle LHP, and I think adding another would be a terrible idea.

Jacko - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 01:26 PM EST (#134283) #
Wouldn't Rondell White be a better option than Sanders? Admittedly not as much power, but strikes out much less

If White's shoulder is ok, I like him a whole lot more than Sanders. Is he a FA? Like Giles, his numbers have been knocked down quite a bit by playing in a severe pitchers park.

joemayo - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 01:48 PM EST (#134286) #
lol. rotoworld has this to say about the jays resigning JP;

According to The Globe and Mail, the Blue Jays will announce no later than tomorrow that GM J.P. Ricciardi has signed a three-year contract extension through 2010. Relievers rejoice! Dec. 5 - 1:23 pm et

Flex - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 01:52 PM EST (#134287) #
White appears to be a free agent. I don't know why Ricciardi wouldn't consider him to be a corner OF upgrade at a reasonable price.
Joe - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:07 PM EST (#134290) #
Excuse my other-bulletin-board quote code, I keep forgetting.

There's a reason doing a Preview is mandatory, you know.

Ryan C - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:14 PM EST (#134291) #
This team needs a #2 starter Great explanation above about how our current pitchers stack up to the rest of the AL. However, I agree. When people say "We need a #2", what they really mean is "We need another #1".
danjulien - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:16 PM EST (#134293) #
I'm sorry...I have to speak out...what in god's name makes people think Trot is an upgrade??? he's injury prone, he's averaged 23 home runs and it only 13 last year in 400 ABs. He hits for a decent average but so does Rios and Rios is much younger and has a stronger arm! 7.5 million for Trot...no thanks
Maldoff - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:31 PM EST (#134295) #
According to Rotoworld.com :

According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays received a new proposal from A.J. Burnett's agent on Sunday night and remain in the running for the right-hander. Rosenthal seems to believe the Jays still could win the sweepstakes if they go to $60 million over five years for Burnett. The Cardinals, the other top suitors, might still be at $40 million for four years. The Rangers, Mariners and Nationals also remain in the running, though they're well behind the top two suitors.

Wow, I thought him going to STL was a done deal. I do worry, though, when it is the agent making the pitch. Seems like STL is the first choice, but not offering enough money to lure AJ there. I feel like the agent is basically saying "unless your offer is substantially better than them, he's going to the 'Show-Me-State'."
The Bone - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:32 PM EST (#134296) #
There's a wide, wide chasm between a .710 OPS and and .855 OPS

The problem, as Jacko pointed out, is that Nixon can't hit lefties, just like Koskie, Hudson, Catalanotto and Hinske...we can't have Nixon + those 4 + a backup catcher all on the bench when a lefty is on the hill

But we need someone who can hit right handed pitching...at least two guys...Wells and Shea both mash lefties, but no one on our teams mashes righties, who we face 70% of the time. Our best hitter against right-handed pitching is either Cat or Koskie, possibly our two most injury-prone hitters

Hitting against righties is far and away our biggest concern
Mark - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#134298) #
Rosenthal is saying AJ's agent has come back to the jays with a 5 year offer. They may have to go to 60 Million to get it done.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5141070

DON"T DO IT!!!
Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:40 PM EST (#134299) #
Rondell White is an interesting ballplayer. He's entering his age 34 season, and given his history of injuries, he's at a very high risk for regression in performance. Here is the performance of his 10 best BBRef comps. It's really a nice list of ballplayers, Richie Zisk, Jackie Jensen, Tony Oliva, Joe Rudi, but only Paul O'Neill did anything from age 34 on.
Sister - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:50 PM EST (#134300) #
I would like to see the Jays make an offer for former Jay farmhand Craig Wilson. He was hampered by injury last year and may be had on the cheap (though this is entirely speculation on my part).



Mylegacy - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:51 PM EST (#134301) #
Time to bring on the Nike man....Just Do It!

Ain't my money...and it's AJ or the highway.
Mike D - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:54 PM EST (#134302) #
Sister, the general understanding is that the Bucs want hitting in exchange for Craig Wilson, as opposed to the pitching the Jays would be likely to offer.
timpinder - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:54 PM EST (#134303) #
I'm having a hard time believing the article that there's no "Plan B" and that Batista becomes untradable if they don't get Burnett.

There are 7 legitimate starters immediately available to the rotation (Halladay, Lilly, Chacin, Towers, Bush, Batista, *McGowan)

There are 10 legitimate releivers available (Schoenoweis, Leaugue, Marcum, Chulk, Frasor, Speier, Ryan, *McGowan, Downs, Walker?), plus 2 more in Rosario and Gronk who you could argue are ready to come up.

Batista makes more $ than all starters not named Halladay and is the perfect piece of trade bait. I just can't believe they wouldn't dangle him for a bat, whether or not they sign Burnett.
Sister - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 02:59 PM EST (#134304) #
Five years and 60 million for A.J.....yikes. Coupled with Ryan and Doc we could be looking at 3 players taking up around 34 million in salary.

I know J.P. recently commented that we can't afford to have one player taking up 18 million in team salary (in reference to Carlos, and in turn Manny), but I guess the same principle doesn't apply to 3 players at 34+ million.

Eeek
Sister - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:04 PM EST (#134305) #
Mike D:

I had not realized that Wilson's name had surfaced in trade rumours (this was just my personal wish list) and that hitting had been requested in return for his services. That, of course, largely removes Toronto from the picture -- baring some sort of three team deal (i.e. Texas-Pittsburg-Toronto).

Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:05 PM EST (#134306) #
Craig Wilson makes some sense as a target. He'd make a fine DH, and he's 28. Given his lack of defensive ability and his salary, he's not that valuable to the Pirates. Russ Adams (at second base), Gabe Gross and Alex Rios all might have some interest to them. And they do need help in the bullpen too. It would be worth exploring, as Wilson is a natural AL player at this stage of his career.
Jdog - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:12 PM EST (#134307) #
Agreed,

I don't see hwo Batista is not tradeable if we fail to land Burnett.

Downs is a capable 5th starter....Batista wasn't in the rotation last year and it was just fine....I doubt he would improve it much at all.
OntarioMediator - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:39 PM EST (#134312) #
It's one of those cases where you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
12 million a season for 5 years guaranteed is steep, especially for someone who's had a career record under .500 and who could turn into a Mike Sirotka.
However, signing Burnett (should he stay healthy) does give JP more options. It also gives the team a bit of a physchological advantage. They could potentially have 2 #1's in Doc and AJ, and going into a 3-game series, that definitely has to buoy some spirits.

4 years I can live with, 5 however is a risk. But, with that being said, it's an oppourtunity to land a player who can have an impact and give the team a very good chance to contend now without touching anyone on the farm.

Conclusion. It's not my money. I say go for it - give AJ the 5-year, 60 mil contract. You gotta take a chances if you want to win.
Kieran - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:44 PM EST (#134314) #
I agree, I'd do the 5/$60 deal for the following reasons:

1) It re-iterates to the fans, players and agents that the Jays are a renewed team with a serious desire to win

2a) It gives us significant pitching depth (beyond having a plethora of #4/#5 types) from which we can trade for an impact hitter

2b) There doesn't seem to be any more attractive impact bats on the free agent market that are a good fit with the Jays (damn, Giles would have been nice)
Skills - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:45 PM EST (#134315) #
Another difference between Delgado taking up 18 million of payroll and 3 for 34 million, is the absence of a no trade clause. In addition, with 3 separate parts, the risk is spread out a little more evenly. In any event, I can't help but still support the Jays getting Burnett, even at 5yr/60. After all, there had been talk about 70 or 75, and regardless, as with Ryan this is the Jays' window of opportunity and I think they have to take it. Finally, as a rejoinder to the criticisms that Burnett (and Ryan too) have not shown enough to support the cash he will receive, it is useful to keep in mind that most upper echelon free agents are older, have shown what they can do, yet have declining skills. For this reason, it might make as much if not more sense to take a chance on a young(er) free agent such as Burnett. He has the potential to be worth his salary, if not more (given inflation), his skills will be at their apex, and if he performs decently in the next few years, his trade value will not be too adversely affected by advanced age.
OntarioMediator - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:45 PM EST (#134316) #
Come to think of it, what's the the difference between the Cardinals' offer and the one the Jays put forth? 1 more year guaranteed and 20 more million in total. Is it really worth it? Why should it take the Jays an additional 20 million to get this done? You would think that the Jays offering a 5-year guaranteed contract would be enough. Classic example of an agent playing with us.
Newton - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 03:48 PM EST (#134317) #
AJ is worth 12 mill a season given the way this free agent market is developing.

If the Jays did in fact offer 5 years in the neighbourhood of 55 million prior to this (whether advisable or not) I don't see why the extra 5 million should scare them off now.





Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:00 PM EST (#134318) #
For the statistically minded, here's an A.J. puzzle. Every year of his career, he has allowed fewer hits than expected and more runs than expected. Perhaps an explanation for the runs experience is that he does not hold runners well and is vulnerable to the stolen base. He led the league in wild pitches one year and was second last year. These considerations may affect his pitching pattern with runners on base.

To expect Burnett to pitch anywhere close to the level Halladay has achieved during the period 2001-2005 is utterly unreasonable.
VBF - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:00 PM EST (#134319) #
So we picked the one free agent with morals.

If it was about money, he would've sign here by now. For AJ Burnett, he's weighing out the chance to play for his childhood team in a city he loves, or to play with his best friend friend's team in a city he likes, but the chance to win a world series is less.

C'mon AJ! You're supposed to go to the team that gives you the most money! You're not supposed to have values!



Andrew K - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:07 PM EST (#134320) #
That's an interesting point VBF. I've been thinking about this for a few days, and I wonder how much the money really matters to these players.

I mean, how much difference does it really make to your life to earn $60 million rather than $40 million? Either way, you can buy pretty much anything a normal man could want and you need never work again. [Of course, your agent is on a percentage commission so he will be trying to persuade you to take the higher bid.]

If it was me, once it got above a certain dollar amount the number would become irrelevant and it would be all about the number of years, the people on team (esp the coaches), and having a chance to win.
OntarioMediator - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:12 PM EST (#134321) #
That's an interesting observation, Mike D.

I don't think anyone expects AJ to be the picther Doc is (although for 60 million, you'd expect him to picth pretty darn good!). It's crazy what a #2 starter goes for!
Ryan B. - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:13 PM EST (#134322) #
This Burnett thing reaks of Carl Pavano, minus the career year.
Newton - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#134323) #
Green, ask yourself what Doc would command if he were a free agent right now... I'm guessing in the neighbourhood of 16-18 million.

AJ is worth 12 million over 4 years in the 2005 free agent market, with an extra year necessary to get him to come up to Canada.

Ryan C - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:17 PM EST (#134324) #
Good point Andrew. However I think in general people severely undestimate how much pressure there is from both agents and especially the union to simply "take the most money, regardless of everything else". I have no inside info, just an impression I have from hearing interviews with various agents and players.
GeoffAtMac - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:24 PM EST (#134325) #

1. I really want to see Burnett in Toronto, but I see Ontario Mediator's position. What about 5/55?

2. I would never want to see Trot Nixon in T.O., and especially at $7.5 per.

3. I think Reggie S would be great too, but not at superstar-esque dollars. He got a 2 year deal from '04-'05 that paid him $6 MIL in total. I think maybe another 2-year deal, perhaps as high as $8-9 MIL in total, would be a good price to put on his services.

Moises Alou will have made $13.25 between '05 and '06, and I think Alou is better than Sanders. (Although their '05 numbers are comparable in some ways.)

        G  AB  R  H  2B/3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2005 93 295 49 80 14  2  21  54  28  75 14 1 .340 .546 .271 (Sanders)

2005 123 427 67 137 21 3 19 63  56  43 5 1 .400 .518 .321 (Alou)

I should add that I think any Sanders offer should be incentive-based.

Mark - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:24 PM EST (#134326) #
I agree Ryan, I think the union will make it hard for Burnett to turn down 15-20 million more. The difference between the two offers, 4/40 and 5/55, is very big. It will cost the rest of the FA's millions plus arbitraton etc. If STL goes 5/50 he is there otherwise he probably ends up here.
Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:29 PM EST (#134327) #
Reasonable expectations for Burnett, assuming his arm is absolutely fine, are an ERA of 3.8 to 4.2, once you make the park and league adjustment. That's little different from Chacin, Bush, and Towers, but significantly better than Lilly or Batista.

In this market, he's worth $9-$11 million for 2006-08 if he's healthy. But, the odds that he'll be a useful pitcher in 2009/10 are about 1 in 5.

B.J. Ryan is a better and more valuable pitcher, with no history of arm problems, and actually has a reasonable chance of being very good in 2009/10.
OntarioMediator - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:40 PM EST (#134330) #
I'm sure this has been flogged to death, but Jayson Stark from ESPN (Insiders account) is reporting that the Jays and Phillies have resumed talks at the Winter Meetings regarding a Bobby Abreu for Vernon Wells deal, but since the Phillies are primarily seeking pitching (who really isn't?), the names of Miguel Batista and Gustavo Chacin have made their way into the talks.
That's a hell of a lot if you ask me. I wonder who else the Phils would be willing to include in the discussions..

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2248738
einsof - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:45 PM EST (#134331) #
The Jays need to ADD a big bat--trading WElls for Abreu only lets the Jays take one step forward & one step backwards= ZERO improvement & for more money--it doesn't make sense..
Newton - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:46 PM EST (#134332) #
I'm fairly certain that if his price tag was set at 11-12 mill per over 4 seasons at least 5 MLB teams would snap up AJ Burnett.

The market has established his value and it is higher than that of BJ Ryan.

Whether the market does not accurately reflect on field value is a different issue altogether.



subculture - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:48 PM EST (#134333) #
What do you think are the odds of Burnett having a better year than Lilly? 60%? 70%? I actually think it's pretty even... which to me means there's no way I give Burnett that kind of money.

Possible and likely scenarios: Burnett has a decent but not great few years (era around 4, winning percentage about .550). Then when it comes time to pay Lilly, Batista, Chacin, even Halladay, or the next FA pitcher the Jays want... expectations are going to be pretty high.

I'm also concerned that Toronto is only 2nd-best (or worse) in terms of choice for Burnett. So if things don't go perfectly (ie, team or Burnett struggles), he'll be wishing he was at least playing where he wanted to be. And then, like A-Rod and others, once he has the dollars locked up, he can start lobbying for a trade.

I agree that next year is not the year we go for the WS... 2007 is a better target, as our young guys mature and we can better evaluate guys like Rios/Gross/Bush/McGowan and have a better shot at free agents...

I also agree with many that we need bats first... let's get some hitters, see how the season goes, and come trade deadline if we're in a good spot, we can trade for the arm to put us over, a la David Cone.
Sister - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:58 PM EST (#134334) #
My hope would be the addition of Abreu without the subtraction of Wells, otherwise such a move seems counterproductive to me. Wells was not the problem with the Jays offense.
VBF - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 04:59 PM EST (#134335) #
If only Sam Waterston was a Jays fan, he'd have Burnett a Jay in seconds.

"AJ, it's not about where you like to play, you need to make your decision on the team that gives you the most money. It's your duty as an MLBPA member to go to Toronto!"
King Ryan - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 05:07 PM EST (#134336) #
All I'm going to say, is:

Please please PLEASE do not sign AJ Burnett.

I know Burnett has some nice "stuff," but PLEASE JP, I Do NOT want to see "Batting fourth, Shea Hillenbrand" next year.
RhyZa - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 05:08 PM EST (#134337) #
I think one of the big factors when you're split between 2 places is simply the price of making your decision a comfortable one after the fact. One place has your pitching coach that you idolize and were once quoted as saying you would go to Japan to play with (if you had to), and a decent enough city (although we know that's selling it short ; ) that showed genuine interest in you. On the other hand you have the team you grew up cheering for, a much more legit and proven contender at this point, and a place that one would assume his wife would rather spend the next 5 years. I know its hard for any of us to comprehend when we're dealing with millions, but if any of you play fantasy sports and I'm sure some of you do, one of the key principles is to buy low and sell high. But at the same time, when your trading a player who has done so well up to that point, you hold out for as much as you can get for him. I think part of the reason is self explanatory (simply to get as much as you can thus improving the odds of the move being a good one), but included in that strategy other than the obvious, is that down the road you want to be able to look back and say okay maybe it did backfire, but it was still the absolute right decision at the time, one which you had no other choice but to make.
Cristian - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 05:23 PM EST (#134339) #
I've been scanning this thread to see whether bauxites are in favour of signing AJ and conclude that the issue evenly divides bauxites. However, on closer inspection it seems that the same voices chime in time and time again in favour of signing AJ. So I guess the issue isn't as even as it first appears. I'm with the relatively silent majority. Let AJ go elsewhere.
timpinder - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 05:24 PM EST (#134340) #
If the money was the same, I'd trade Abreu for Wells. Wells hits maybe 5 HR's more per season, but I believe (I haven't checked the stats), that Abreu's career OBP is over .400. With $9 million difference in their salaries, it's a no-brainer though, Wells stays.

Anyway, I think what the article was suggesting was that Wells' name had been brought up, but that it was more likely Philly would want Chacin or Batista INSTEAD of Wells, since they're looking for pitching. That's how I interpreted it anyway. Abreu #3 and Wells #4 with even Mench, Hillenbrand or Koskie as the #5 would be a nice meat of the order IMO.
RhyZa - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 05:51 PM EST (#134343) #
Chacin and Batista for Abreu? No brainer if that's the case ain't it
Sister - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:09 PM EST (#134347) #
From rotoworld

"ESPN's Peter Gammons says A.J. Burnett will likely go to the Blue Jays for five years and $55 million.
Reportedly, Burnett's agent wants to talk with the Cardinals one more time. However, the deal with Toronto could be agreed to within the next honor. It sounds as though the Cardinals just won't guarantee him the fifth year."
RhyZa - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:13 PM EST (#134349) #
honestly, I've been going back and forth, but I'm fine with that.
RhyZa - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:25 PM EST (#134358) #
Although it definitely still sounds like a posturing ploy to get the Cards to up the offer... hard to tell how serious he is about actually coming here, strong possibility he has his mind set on the Cards.
greenfrog - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:32 PM EST (#134360) #
Oy vey, that's a lot of money (and years) for a pitcher with a history. Here's how I feel about it:

I have to admit that I'll be pretty excited if we sign him. Suddenly our team is starting to appear pretty stacked. And I damn well hope that JP was right when he said "we've done our homework on him."

But my prudent side says it's all too much for a pitcher with a history of injury problems, possible mechanical problems, and potential clubhouse/teamwork issues (eg what happens if Arnsberg departs after a couple of years?). I'm concerned about AJ being a million-dollar arm, ten-cent brain guy, as one commentator described him. And that this deal creates too much potential leverage; ie, wagering too much of our success on a few players, which the Jays can ill afford to do.

So- all in all, I'm excited, and hopeful, but a bit sick to my stomach about the whole thing.
actionjackson - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 06:49 PM EST (#134368) #
Really, I just want him to make a decision one way or the other and stop holding the Cards and (more importantly) the Jays hostage. Ken 'Astros in 7' Rosenthal's story re: '5yr/$60mil or else' really stuck in my craw. I don't like it when an agent forces a team (especially our team) to bid against itself. I say 5/$55mil TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT, and let's get on to other things. The offer is the best you've gotten and (barring Omar 'moneybags' Minaya dashing in at the last minute) the best you're gonna get, so let's have an answer NOW!
Leigh - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 07:10 PM EST (#134378) #
Reasonable people can disagree about the years and money, but Burnett's talent and peripheral statistics are being grossly shorted by most in this thread.

Using Shandler's BPV (my favourite pitching stat), which melds k/bb, k/9, hr/9 and opp. batting avg., I took a look at 2005 starting pitchers' stats.

Roy Halladay finished first of all starters with at least 15 starts, with a score of 156; Johan Santana was second at 153. A.J. Burnett finished 17th, with a score of 96, just ahead of Smoltz, Buehrle and Colon. Josh Towers ranked 35th , with a score of 77, Dave Bush finished 74th with a score of 45, Chacin finished 81st with a score of 43, and Lilly finished 123rd with a score of 27.

All Burnett does is strike batters out and induce ground balls - if that doesn't produce a good ERA, it is purely a coincidence.
Mylegacy - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 07:15 PM EST (#134381) #
AJ is not only a big upgrade in the pitching BUT his addition frees up Batista and maybe Lilly to be traded for bats...REMEMBER Batista would cost $4.75 Mill and Lilly earned $3.1 Mill in 05 and is eligible for arbitration this year SO that is about $8 Mill we could put towards bats.

Halliday, AJ, Towers, Chacin and Bush/McGowan I can live with.
Rob - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 07:18 PM EST (#134383) #
I Do NOT want to see "Batting fourth, Shea Hillenbrand" next year.

Ah, don't worry. He'll be all the way down in the 5-hole.

actionjackson - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 07:23 PM EST (#134387) #
I'm curious as to why, if he's such a great strikeout/groundout pitcher, is he such a different pitcher away from Pro Player Stadium. If he's so good with strikeouts/groundouts shouldn't he be able to pitch anywhere? Especially now that there's almost no artificial turf anywhere. Maybe the infielders lose some of their range away from home 'cause they're checkin' out all the local nightspots in each town on the road. ;)
Malcolm Little - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 08:00 PM EST (#134404) #
White appears to be a free agent. I don't know why Ricciardi wouldn't consider him to be a corner OF upgrade at a reasonable price. I could handle White, but I doubt it would happen unless he's a lot less tied to LF than he may be. Sanders on a one or a two year deal would be stellar, especially so when it could be for around Batista's salary. Call me crazy, really, but signing him is so much better in my mind than simply dumping Rios + for Mench. Rios as a spot starter to see whether or not he ever develops is not a bad scenario for a year. His value's got to be at its lowest right now. ******** Burnett. It could stink, but the Jays are taking chances now to try to win it all. All in all, this is hella more fun than their simply signing discounts post-X-mas however much these discounts would be better value. If the team never takes a big risk and tries for a championship, it'll never come.
jsoh - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:09 PM EST (#134432) #
Seen on BTF. No confirmation as of yet:

Athletics acquired RHP Chad Gaudin from the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named.
Craig B - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:51 PM EST (#134451) #
I could handle White, but I doubt it would happen unless he's a lot less tied to LF than he may be.

One thing about White, he's still a pretty darned good outfielder, something he gets very little credit for (probably because he's hurt a lot). He's never had a good arm, but he's probably nearly Reed Johnson's equal out there, even in mis mid-thirties.

Mike Green - Monday, December 05 2005 @ 09:54 PM EST (#134455) #
Leigh, you've got to adjust these things for park and league. Burnett strikes out more than a batter more per game in Miami than on the road. His career G/F ratio is nothing like 2.3/1. In the Rogers Centre, he'd strike out 7 per game, walk 3.5 per game, and give up a homer every game or so. That's better than Ted Lilly but not by that much. The park and league adjustments are why Burnett's WARP1 is about equivalent to Chacin's and Towers. It is also why Carl Pavano looked so good in Florida and not so good in New York.
Leigh - Tuesday, December 06 2005 @ 07:39 AM EST (#134534) #
Mike, I agree that there is some park and league factoring to do, but surely you are overstating it. A homerun per nine innings?
MattAtBat - Tuesday, December 06 2005 @ 07:50 AM EST (#134535) #
Perhaps reuniting with Arnsberg means that AJ's stats will return to 2002 levels (3.30 ERA), except better because he is more experienced and throwing harder. So yes, park is a factor, but perhaps it can be offset by good coaching.
Leigh - Tuesday, December 06 2005 @ 07:54 AM EST (#134536) #
Mike, here are the numbers using BP's Translated Statistics:

Burnett: 7.5 k/9, 2.3 k/bb, 0.6 hr/9; Chacin: 5.6 k/9, 1.9 k/bb, 0.9 hr/9; Lilly: 7.0 k/9, 1.8 k/bb, 1.4 hr/9.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 06 2005 @ 08:36 AM EST (#134543) #
And using BP's translated statistics, Chacin has the lower ERA and dERA. For Lilly, you have to take an average of the last 2 years to really notice the similarity between him and Burnett. As I said, Burnett's a little better but not much.
Leigh - Tuesday, December 06 2005 @ 09:33 AM EST (#134564) #
Mike, you and I both know that the ingredients of a successful pitcher - going forward - are strikeouts, walk prevention, pitch count efficiency, groundball propensity, homerun prevention and trajectory of non-ground balls in play.

Burnett is closer to Halladay than to any other Jays starting pitcher.

XFIP, or Expected Fielding Independant Pitching, from Hardball Times, "adjusts FIP [Fielding Independant Pitching, or THT's DIPS I suppose] and 'normalizes' the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly, and adjusted for the home run tendencies of the ballpark. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA." [THT Glossary]

XFIP, 20005:

Halladay 3.05
Burnett 3.30
Chacin 4.89
Towers 4.45
Lilly 5.04
Bush 4.71
Leigh - Tuesday, December 06 2005 @ 10:11 AM EST (#134582) #
Burnett is closer to Halladay than to any other Jays starting pitcher.

And that, as Joe would say, is why "preview" is mandatory. What I meant to say was that Burnett is closer to Halladay than to any other Jays starting pitcher with regard to the above mentioned indicia of quality.

Further, Mike, I did not mean for the opening sentence in my above post to sound as snarky as it did. My apologies.

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