The 2006 Hall of Fame ballot has been announced. We will take a look at three of the starting pitching candidates- Tommy John, Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.
If you ask a casual baseball fan under the age of 25 about Tommy John, you're likely to get a 2 word answer: "elbow surgery". If you ask someone over the age of 25 about him, you will probably hear about his eminently hittable stuff and his unimposing stature. How many will say "always good and sometimes great"?
Tommy John was signed by Cleveland in 1961. After spending 2 seasons in the minors, he arrived with the big club in late 1963, and pitched 20 capable innings. After struggling in 1964, he was traded in the off-season by the Indians with Tommie Agee and Johnny Romano to the White Sox in a 3 way trade also involving the Kansas City Athletics. So began John's run of success.
The early White Sox years- 1965-68
John pitched for the White Sox for 1965-1971. In his early 20s, he had enough zip on his fastball to strike out his share of batters (at about the American League average of 5.7 per 9 innings) during that period. From 1965-68, he had excellent control and posted ERA+ of 103, 120, 125 and 154 in successive seasons, but threw only 180 innings per season in 3 of the 4 seasons, with less than 30 starts.
John had excellent defence behind him in the early years, particularly in the outfield with Ken Berry and the wonderous Tommie Agee. The Sox led the league in defensive efficiency ratio each year from 1965-67 with marks of 729, 728 and 735 (the league averages were 715, 717 and 718). The White Sox played in Comiskey Park. At the time, the park was deep down the lines (352 feet) and short in the alleys (365 feet). Foul territory was abundant.
In 1968, Agee was sent to the Mets where future World Series glory awaited him. The Sox defence declined to league average, but John prospered. The fences in the alleys were pushed back 10 feet at the beginning of the season and this may have helped him.
The later White Sox years 69-71
The Sox defence continued its' decline during John's later years, and John's pitching followed with it. The team DER fell to 698, 694 and 701 (league averages 714, 711 and 715). Each year, it seems to have been something different- Bill Melton, as a rookie at third struggling, Jay Johnstone being stretched in centerfield, Luis Aparicio getting old- whatever it was, the defence simply wasn't what it had been. Meanwhile John was being worked harder and his control, and his strikeout rate, began to suffer. In 1970, he walked 101 batters in 269 innings, including 16 intentional walks. Was it wear and tear on the arm that led to the loss of control or did the team's less effective defence cause him to be too fine? Maybe it was a bit of both. In 1969-70, he still put up ERA+ of 119 in 1969-70, but posted miserable won-loss records.
1971 was a watershed year for John. He pitched respectably well actually, and improved his control and strikeout rate, but had neither the ERA nor the won-loss record to show. With 17 homers, 58 walks and 131 strikeouts in 229 innings, and with his fine defence and ability to hold runners and get the double play, he should have done better than a 3.61 ERA (league average). But he didn't and again posted a losing record. That probably ended up helping his career, as the Sox shipped him to the Dodgers after the season in a package for Dick Allen.
The Dodger years-1972-78
Moving to Dodger Stadium with its abundant foul territory and slow infield was one benefit of the trade for John. More importantly, he joined a consistently good offensive and defensive ballclub. With Garvey, Lopes, Russell and Cey on the infield, and respectable defensive and offensive outfields, the Dodgers put up an average defensive efficiency ration of 718 compared with a league average of 703 during John's tenure. John took maximum advantage of his situation by getting more groundballs and reducing his home run rate.
In 1974, he had a 13-3 record in mid-season but stopped due to elbow pain and underwent the surgery that now bears his name. He missed 1975, and continued on in 1976 as if nothing had happened. He won 20 games for the first time in 1977 at age 34, by throwing 220 very good innings in 31 starts and by being a little lucky. After a lesser year in 1978, he became a free agent and signed with the Yankees.
The Yankee years 1979-81
Yankee Stadium with its short right-field porch and expanses in left-centre and centre was tailored to John's abilities. The Yankee infield of Nettles, Dent, Randolph and Chambliss was solid (the Yanks put up a DER of 707 against a league average of 703 during John's years).
John was 36 when he joined the Yankees, and posted back-to-back 20 win seasons in an unusual way. He struck out first fewer than 4 per 9 innings in 1979 and then fewer than 3 per 9 innings in 1980, but walked fewer than ever. He pitched 540 innings over 2 seasons, by far the highest total of his career.
The long tail end of John's career
Normally, striking out so few batters, particularly at age 37 will presage a quick end to a career. Not so for Tommy John. He threw for 10 more seasons with the Yankees, California and briefly Oakland as basically an average pitcher, with fluctuations from season to season, despite a very low strikeout rate. His modus operandi was simple- keep the ball down and in the strike zone. He didn't really fool anybody, but kept batters off-stride sufficiently to be effective despite having uninspired defences behind him.
John was an excellent fielder, and a fine post-season performer (6-3 with a 2.65 ERA). He was an above average pitcher every year from age 22 to age 39 and sprinkled in 5 excellent seasons there and 5 good ones. So, how does he stand up against his comparables, Robin Roberts, Red Ruffing, and Jim Kaat?
Here's the chart:
Those ERA+ numbers may look really unimpressive, but that is just the way it is for pitchers with long careers. 120 is very, very good. For perspective, Seaver's was 127, Palmer's 125 and Carlton's 115. The scale is nothing like the career OPS numbers that we saw last year.
Should Tommy John be in the Hall of Fame? I think so. He slides nicely in between Red Ruffing and Robin Roberts, and is comfortably better than Kaat. He was obviously not among the very best starters in baseball during his time; those spots were taken by Koufax, Gibson, and Marichal, and then Palmer, Seaver and Carlton and later the likes of Ron Guidry and Dave Stieb. But, he was close enough and he pitched long enough at that high level, as Ruffing did, to merit induction.
If you ask a casual baseball fan under the age of 25 about Tommy John, you're likely to get a 2 word answer: "elbow surgery". If you ask someone over the age of 25 about him, you will probably hear about his eminently hittable stuff and his unimposing stature. How many will say "always good and sometimes great"?
Tommy John was signed by Cleveland in 1961. After spending 2 seasons in the minors, he arrived with the big club in late 1963, and pitched 20 capable innings. After struggling in 1964, he was traded in the off-season by the Indians with Tommie Agee and Johnny Romano to the White Sox in a 3 way trade also involving the Kansas City Athletics. So began John's run of success.
The early White Sox years- 1965-68
John pitched for the White Sox for 1965-1971. In his early 20s, he had enough zip on his fastball to strike out his share of batters (at about the American League average of 5.7 per 9 innings) during that period. From 1965-68, he had excellent control and posted ERA+ of 103, 120, 125 and 154 in successive seasons, but threw only 180 innings per season in 3 of the 4 seasons, with less than 30 starts.
John had excellent defence behind him in the early years, particularly in the outfield with Ken Berry and the wonderous Tommie Agee. The Sox led the league in defensive efficiency ratio each year from 1965-67 with marks of 729, 728 and 735 (the league averages were 715, 717 and 718). The White Sox played in Comiskey Park. At the time, the park was deep down the lines (352 feet) and short in the alleys (365 feet). Foul territory was abundant.
In 1968, Agee was sent to the Mets where future World Series glory awaited him. The Sox defence declined to league average, but John prospered. The fences in the alleys were pushed back 10 feet at the beginning of the season and this may have helped him.
The later White Sox years 69-71
The Sox defence continued its' decline during John's later years, and John's pitching followed with it. The team DER fell to 698, 694 and 701 (league averages 714, 711 and 715). Each year, it seems to have been something different- Bill Melton, as a rookie at third struggling, Jay Johnstone being stretched in centerfield, Luis Aparicio getting old- whatever it was, the defence simply wasn't what it had been. Meanwhile John was being worked harder and his control, and his strikeout rate, began to suffer. In 1970, he walked 101 batters in 269 innings, including 16 intentional walks. Was it wear and tear on the arm that led to the loss of control or did the team's less effective defence cause him to be too fine? Maybe it was a bit of both. In 1969-70, he still put up ERA+ of 119 in 1969-70, but posted miserable won-loss records.
1971 was a watershed year for John. He pitched respectably well actually, and improved his control and strikeout rate, but had neither the ERA nor the won-loss record to show. With 17 homers, 58 walks and 131 strikeouts in 229 innings, and with his fine defence and ability to hold runners and get the double play, he should have done better than a 3.61 ERA (league average). But he didn't and again posted a losing record. That probably ended up helping his career, as the Sox shipped him to the Dodgers after the season in a package for Dick Allen.
The Dodger years-1972-78
Moving to Dodger Stadium with its abundant foul territory and slow infield was one benefit of the trade for John. More importantly, he joined a consistently good offensive and defensive ballclub. With Garvey, Lopes, Russell and Cey on the infield, and respectable defensive and offensive outfields, the Dodgers put up an average defensive efficiency ration of 718 compared with a league average of 703 during John's tenure. John took maximum advantage of his situation by getting more groundballs and reducing his home run rate.
In 1974, he had a 13-3 record in mid-season but stopped due to elbow pain and underwent the surgery that now bears his name. He missed 1975, and continued on in 1976 as if nothing had happened. He won 20 games for the first time in 1977 at age 34, by throwing 220 very good innings in 31 starts and by being a little lucky. After a lesser year in 1978, he became a free agent and signed with the Yankees.
The Yankee years 1979-81
Yankee Stadium with its short right-field porch and expanses in left-centre and centre was tailored to John's abilities. The Yankee infield of Nettles, Dent, Randolph and Chambliss was solid (the Yanks put up a DER of 707 against a league average of 703 during John's years).
John was 36 when he joined the Yankees, and posted back-to-back 20 win seasons in an unusual way. He struck out first fewer than 4 per 9 innings in 1979 and then fewer than 3 per 9 innings in 1980, but walked fewer than ever. He pitched 540 innings over 2 seasons, by far the highest total of his career.
The long tail end of John's career
Normally, striking out so few batters, particularly at age 37 will presage a quick end to a career. Not so for Tommy John. He threw for 10 more seasons with the Yankees, California and briefly Oakland as basically an average pitcher, with fluctuations from season to season, despite a very low strikeout rate. His modus operandi was simple- keep the ball down and in the strike zone. He didn't really fool anybody, but kept batters off-stride sufficiently to be effective despite having uninspired defences behind him.
John was an excellent fielder, and a fine post-season performer (6-3 with a 2.65 ERA). He was an above average pitcher every year from age 22 to age 39 and sprinkled in 5 excellent seasons there and 5 good ones. So, how does he stand up against his comparables, Robin Roberts, Red Ruffing, and Jim Kaat?
Here's the chart:
Pitcher IP(seasons) ERA+ K/9IP(Lg) W/9IP(Lg) HR/9IP(Lg) Team DER(Lg) W-L John 4710.3(17.2) 111 4.3(5.4) 2.4(3.3) 0.6(0.8) 708(706) 288-231 Roberts 4688.7(17.7) 113 4.5(5.0) 1.7(3.4) 1.0(0.9) 715(710) 286-245 Ruffing 4344.0(16.1) 109 4.1(3.3) 3.2(3.5) 0.5(0.5) 695(689) 273-225 Kaat 4530.3(16.5) 107 4.9(5.3) 2.2(3.4) 0.8(0.8) 707(708) 283-237
Those ERA+ numbers may look really unimpressive, but that is just the way it is for pitchers with long careers. 120 is very, very good. For perspective, Seaver's was 127, Palmer's 125 and Carlton's 115. The scale is nothing like the career OPS numbers that we saw last year.
Should Tommy John be in the Hall of Fame? I think so. He slides nicely in between Red Ruffing and Robin Roberts, and is comfortably better than Kaat. He was obviously not among the very best starters in baseball during his time; those spots were taken by Koufax, Gibson, and Marichal, and then Palmer, Seaver and Carlton and later the likes of Ron Guidry and Dave Stieb. But, he was close enough and he pitched long enough at that high level, as Ruffing did, to merit induction.
