PLEASE NO!! I'm begging you. No. I feel like a broken record.

Five years for just about any pitcher is scary.

However, I don't see how he's not 'proven'. He has a 3.73 ERA in 854 innings, including 300+ innings since surgery. I think you know exactly what you're getting with Burnett. You may or may not think he's worth whatever contract he's going to get, but he's certainly not unproven.

As far as the age of Brian Giles and the potential of AJ Burnett, PECOTA seems to like them. (NY Times article; reg required).

A relative sleeper could be found in outfielder Brian Giles, who despite being 35 has the kind of skills - excellent power, speed and a fine batting eye - that tend to age relatively slowly.

...

Pecota helps quantify the danger of long-term pitching investments, and points out which types of arms tend to project best. The strongest indicators of future performance are rates of strikeouts, walks and home runs, but also ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and even body type.

As for this year's free-agent pitching market, Silver sees a fine future for A. J. Burnett, an enigmatic 28-year-old right-hander. Burnett projects to have a 3.65 earned run average next season, but also has a 15 percent chance of blossoming into a Cy Young award candidate for several seasons. Of the two most intriguing relievers available, the veteran Billy Wagner and the less-known B. J. Ryan, Pecota chooses Ryan as the better long-term investment thanks to his age next season (30 to Wagner's 34) and several other peripheral factors.

These guys might be expensive and are certainly not without risk. But they're also likely to be good for the next two or three years. After which either their contracts might expire or you have the option of trading.

Yes. Yes! YES!!

Giles was actually even or slightly better as a hitter than Abreu last season, despite the massive difference between the San Diego and Philly ball parks. Here's what they did in neutral parks last year:

PLAYER	      TEAM  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
Brian Giles	SD 279 57 93 26  3  9  52  8  3 70 .333 .463 .545 1.008
Bobby Abreu    Phi 302 49 81 16  1  9  44 19  4 57 .268 .387 .417  .805

Abreu is a wonderful player, but Giles is better, will almost certainly be cheaper, and won't cost as much to obtain. Signing him would surely be the preferred option.

Who wants J.P.'s millions? Anyone? Manny?

Typically I'm one to scoff at the suggestion of an incentive based contract, but Frank Thomas would be one case where it could come into play (old player coming off of an injury) and the Jays could get pretty creative with it given that they have the money to play with and a hole in the lineup.

If Thomas plays I'm pretty confident he'll hit. His OPS+ the last 4 seasons are 117, 149, 151 and 131 (and that 131 was with a .219 BA).

What I might do is something like this:

* Tell Thomas if he signs with the Jays he'll be the everyday DH and bat 3rd or 4th (subject to normal days off)

* Give him a guaranteed base salary of $2 million.

* Give him $20,000 for every plate appearance over 200 PAs

So here's what he'd receive if he had the following PAs (he had 662 PAs in 2003, 311 in 2004, and 124 this year):

PA	    Base         $/PA	     Total Compensation
700	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $12,000,000 
600	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $10,000,000 
500	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $ 8,000,000 
400	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $ 6,000,000 
300	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $ 4,000,000 
200	 $2,000,000 	 $     -   	 $ 2,000,000 
100	 $2,000,000 	 $     -   	 $ 2,000,000 
0	 $2,000,000 	 $     -   	 $ 2,000,000 

From the Jays standpoint there wouldn't be that much financial risk. If he plays he'll be worth what he gets, and if he doesn't play he won't get paid.

Would anyone object to a .270/.390/.550 line getting $10 million for 600 PAs? I think it'd be well worth it.

The real risk in this scenario would be if he got injured you'd have the same hole that exist in the lineup now. Obviously you could say that about anyone but Thomas carries a bit more risk fiven that he's played about 100 games the past 2 years.

I have no idea what other teams might offer Thomas; perhaps they'd be willing to guarantee a lot more. However, if Thomas had an offer similar to the above one I'm not sure how many teams would be willing to go with a contract that could be worth that much.

Thomas' contract will be one of the more interesting ones this offseason.

Something like this might not be my first option, but it might end up being one of the more realistic option for the Jays this offseason.

Pistol, I think Thomas will end up getting a contract similar to what you proposed (though likely with less granular thresholds). I think the real risk with Thomas is as you've suggested: if he gets hurt and can't play, you've got to resort to a plan B. A team that sees itself as a serious playoff threat may be disinclined to go into next season having to plan for backfilling 500 DH AB's if Thomas gets hurt. As such, I think that Thomas will be more attractive to middle-of-the-road teams that might only make the playoffs should Thomas regain his former glory and provide a full season's worth of high quality numbers.

It may not be the concensus around here, but I think Toronto fits that profile. A lot of things are going to have to break right to get them to 90+ wins. One of those things breaking right might be a low-risk contract to someone with huge upside potential, like Thomas.

I suspect they already have gone through this scenario. If it's either one player or the other I'm sure the players would know from JP that if the other player accepted that their deal is off the table.

However, I suspect if this scenario played out the Jays would happily sign both and then go from there to improve the offense. There'd be some money left and some that would be able to be freed up.

ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Juan Pierre from the Marlins for a pair of minor leaguers.
No Corey Patterson? We hope the Cubs wouldn't give up Felix Pie for one year of Pierre. Parting with pitching prospects, say Rich Hill along with Sean Marshall or Renyel Pinto, would be preferable.

Man, after re-signing Neifi, that will be one anemic offense. They'd better hope Derrek Lee can keep up his Superman act for another season.

It's funny, but I certainly don't want to see the Jays follow the trend and go after C.J. Nitkowski. Or D.J. Carrasco. Now, e.e. cummings, on the other hand...I wouldn't go as high as 3 years/25 million per, but he might be okay with 1/20.

The Star also has a story about potential moves which off-handedly dismisses the possibilty of B.J. Ryan signing, suggests some possibility of Brian Giles, and says Ricciardi has ruled out Aubrey Huff.

Must be cool when your mom has an MVP vote.

Did you see Podsednik's 12th place finish in the AL? One writer thought he was the 5th best player in the league. Another thought he was 6th. BP had him 8th in VORP... on his own team! Nobody buys into a good bullshit inspirational story like a member of the BBWAA.

See how many votes Peralta got? Nada. You're a top flight defense shortstop who hit 292/366/520 and even your hometown writers don't see fit to throw you a crummy 10th place vote? Shameful. Even Wickman and Sizemore got votes.

Isn't Boras Chan Ho park's agent as well? I seem to recall that prior to Texas signing Park, way back when, that Boras was floating a "$20M per year" trial balloon. I think Park ended up signing for $65M for 5 years.

No harm in beating your chest and asking for the moon. Obviously no one is going to bite on a 7/84 contract for a 32-year old Damon. If Damon gets a 4-year deal, which I suspect he will, he'll have done well.

-outside facade in long-term plans
-last three rows on concourse removed and to be renovated
-new club seats, made more intimate (maybe thats what Maureen the usher was tlaking about)
-renovated luxury boxes

I guess anything is possible but teams seem more focused on cost certainty and short term commitments than ever before. And while Mr. Steinbrenner is apparently looking for a center fielder, surely he must have learned a thing or two from the longterm commitment to their last center fielder, who was even younger than Damon when he signed his long term deal.

If not King George, who then is left to pony up for more than 4 seasons' worth of Johnny Damon?

Ian Harrison has filled in for Fordin before, so it's not a bad guess.

Dr. Prison Fence was an obvious nickname based on the anagram, and as for Ian Harrison...how about A Rhino's Nair? Something with Rhino in it, at least.

Good to see Cameron going to neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox. Either team could easily carry his hit-and-miss offence and would be improved (vastly so, in New York's case) by his defence. Both teams still have to replace departing centerfielders, and their options are narrowing.