Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Talk Is Cheap, Free Agents Are Expensive

Talk Is Cheap, Free Agents Are Expensive

The GM meetings are over and free agency begins.

* Geoff Baker brings the Blue Jay Notes today:

- The acquisition of McDonald, 31, who replaces Frank Menechino as the primary backup, won't affect whether the Jays move any members of a crowded infield.

- Ricciardi did hold talks with the Phils, but ruled out Abreu because his salary "is an exorbitant amount of money for us.'' As for the Royals: "We don't see a match with Kansas City in any way, shape or form."

- That leaves the Jays looking at free-agent outfielder Brian Giles of the Padres and perhaps dealing for outfielder Kevin Mench of the Rangers, but both are attracting plenty of interest.

- Ricciardi now says he could pass on Burnett in favour of a trade if he can't get a deal signed by the start of the winter meetings in Dallas three weeks from now. "Obviously, if we see a deal we like, that could take us out of the (Burnett) running,'' he said. "Most of these things are done at the start of the meetings period, so we'd want to know which way we're going before that."

* Here's a nice summary of several rumors making the rounds in newspapers.

* As always, go and vote for Tom Cheek, for the rest of the month for the Frick Award.

Posted by Pistol on Friday, November 11 2005 @ 08:40 AM EST.

Talk Is Cheap, Free Agents Are Expensive | 98 comments | Create New Account

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Ducey - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 10:04 AM EST (#131820) #

Adrian Gonzalez's (of Texas) name keeps coming up in rumours. I wonder if JP would be interested. I would trade for him before I would trade for Mench.

Ducey - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 10:20 AM EST (#131822) #

Javier Vazquez is available and wants to play on the East Coast. Maybe he would consider a return to Canada?
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20051111&content_id=1267259&vkey=hotstove2005&fext=.jsp

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 10:56 AM EST (#131825) #

I don't want to cause Pepper's blood pressure to rise, but Vazquez and Burnett are quite similar. Vazquez could involve considerably less financial obligation; it might be possible to structure a trade that maintained the current pitcher/position player balance and improved the pitching modestly at modest cost. That would not change the need to acquire a bat or two.

Nick - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 10:59 AM EST (#131826) #

To say Vazquez had a rollercoaster 2005 would be a major understatement. Look at his monthly ERA's:

April: 6.11
May: 2.15
June: 6.75
July: 3.71
August: 7.09
September/October: 2.52

Vazquez was ridiculous in May:

46 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 39-0 K/BB, 2 HR allowed, 2 CG.

People like to blame his propensity to give up HR's in 2005 on his home ballpark in Arizona. His 35 HR (1.46/9 IP) allowed was 2nd in the majors. However, in 2004 with NYY, he gave up 33 HR, or 1.5/9 IP. So we might be seeing the beginning of a bad trend.

Can we blame Vazquez's drop-off after leaving Montreal on the fact that he didn't like playing in NY or Arizona? I don't know. But the 2000-2003 Vazquez was a pretty good pitcher (especially 2003 and 2001) and I wouldn't mind having him on my team for $18 million over the next 2 years (I belive NYY is picking up $6 million of his salary over the next 2 years.) Of course, who knows what Vazquez you're going to get.

Would you rather commit:

A) $18 million over 2 years plus a couple players to Vazquez
B) $55 million over 5 years for Burnett

I think the answer would be A. Of course that is a hypotehtical question asked as if those were the only 2 choices. Many might take (C) Neither. But if the Jays can find a match, I like the 2 year commitment as opposed to the 4 or 5 year commitment a free agent will demand.

5hoursahead - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:09 AM EST (#131827) #

Blair from 2 November:

"if the Arizona Diamondbacks move to trade Javier Vazquez, sources say they'll give the new team a chance to negotiate a contract extension with him. My guess is if the Blue Jays lose out on Burnett, they'll be all over Vazquez, the former Montreal Expos pitcher who like Burnett shares a fondness for current Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg"

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:12 AM EST (#131828) #

Being an Expos fan, I've always been a big fan of Javy. That being said, his up-and-down last couple of years does scare me somewhat.

Check out the difference in performance between AJ and Javy over the last few years. Keep in mind these guys are the same age.

WARP3 figures for Javy and AJ
Year   AJ   Javy
2000  2.0    6.6
2001  4.1    9.0
2002  5.5    5.4
2003  0.4    7.6
2004  3.4    4.7
2005  5.2    6.0

Pistol - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:26 AM EST (#131829) #

A) $18 million over 2 years plus a couple players to Vazquez

Vazquez makes more than that ($11.5/$12.5 the next two years). Just because the Yankees are paying part of the contract doesn't mean that Arizona has to pass along that money if they trade Vazquez (nor does it prevent Arizona from throwing in money to the deal).

earlweaverfan - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:38 AM EST (#131831) #

Can anyone explain why BJ Ryan's name seems to have dropped out of the FA discussion for the Jays? JP's discussion of his alternatives in today's Star makes no mention of him. I cannot think of a better single move than to replace Batista with Ryan, and either move Batista to the starting rotation or (much better) trade him (along with Lilly?) as part of a package for a big bat.

As for Ryan, I like not only his closing ability, but his age and trajectory.

Nick - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:48 AM EST (#131832) #

OK, Pistol, point taken. Arizona will already have limited leverage because everyone knows he has to be traded. I think they will almost have to throw $ in the deal in order to get anything in return with Vazquez's recent inconsistency being taken into account. Of course, I could be wrong and this tight market could make Vazquez a valuable commodity. But I don't think so. Even if Arizona doesn't throw $ into the deal, I'd still rather have Vazquez for 2 years than Burnett for 5 at their respective salaries.

On another note - how is Abreu too expensive? Would you rather have Abreu + Bush or Mench + Burnett? The combined salaries of the 2 combos wouldn't be equal but I don't think there'd be a big enough difference to sway the decision. Why is Abreu out of the question due to his salary? I don't get it.

Nick - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:48 AM EST (#131833) #

I'm pretty sure Ryan will be in Toronto on Monday for a visit.

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:50 AM EST (#131834) #

I like B.J. Ryan too. My understanding was that he was paying a visit to Toronto, and I have not heard that it has been cancelled. It does take two to tango in the free agent dance; teams may have interest in players that do not have interest in them.

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 12:18 PM EST (#131836) #

John Brattain says in today's THT that the Jays should be interested in Delgado and Thomas.

Jabes - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 01:21 PM EST (#131838) #

It sounds like the Yankees are going to drive up the price on B.J. Ryan. There are still some other good bullpen arms available; Farnsworth, Gordon.

Jabes - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 01:26 PM EST (#131839) #

Burnett wants a five year deal? Five years for an unproven guy at 10 million plus, that sounds exactly like the kind of deal the O's like to give out. Good luck to them. On the positive side I hope this means JP takes a run at Giles.

Nick - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 01:31 PM EST (#131840) #

This makes more sense. From Bob Elliott:

"The Blue Jays inquired about the availability of outfielder Bobby Abreu of the Philadelphia Phillies at the annual general managers meetings which concluded yesterday in Indian Wells, Calif.

The Phillies countered by asking if Vernon Wells was available. When told Wells was not, that was the end of the trade talks."

http://torontosun.com/Sports/Baseball/2005/11/11/1302129-sun.html

Ryan B. - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 01:58 PM EST (#131841) #

I've been thinking the last couple of days about the Jays perhaps looking into Barry Zito.

I know he is eligable for free agency after next season and with Oakland being on such a budget it may be possible to work out a trade. Perhaps offering a combination of League/Rios/Bush/Batista/McGowen would get the job done. I would part with up to three of those guys if Zito agreed to a long term contraxt extention.

Zito would slide nicly into the number 2 hole for Toronto and make Lilly even more expendable since Toronto would have such an abundence of left handed pitchers.

Perhaps Lilly could then be used as part of a trade to aquire a bat. We all know Texas has a lot of offence and needs pitching while the Reds have too many outfielders and not enough arms.

I would think Zito would come slightly cheaper then Burnette with regardes to a contract exention. Probably somewhere in the 3-5 range at $9-$10M a year.

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:02 PM EST (#131842) #

Here's a parlour game for a Friday afternoon. Who is the better risk, Matsui for 4 years at $12 million per, or Giles for 3 years at the same rate? Matsui is 3 and 1/2 years younger and has an extraordinary record of durability, but isn't the hitter that Giles is.

The question isn't entirely theoretical, as the major stumbling block between Matsui and the Yankees is apparently the 4th year on the contract.

PeterG - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:13 PM EST (#131844) #

Matsui. He's a far better player than Giles and at this stage is showing no signs of decline. He appears to be in his prime. Not so for Giles.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:14 PM EST (#131845) #

I'd rather have Matsui. Easily. Giles might be the better hitter now, but Hideki isn't going to decline nearly as fast as Giles will.

There's no way Burnett should get more cash than Matsui, but there's a very good chance he will.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:22 PM EST (#131846) #

According to this article in Newsday:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spyanks114507805nov11,0,2575550.story?coll=ny-baseball-headlines

Matsui wants a 5 year/$55 million contract whereas the Yankees are currently offering 3 years/$31.5M.

The Yankees are nuts if they don't sign Matsui for 5/55. He's a bargain at that price. If the Jays had that opportunity, I'd hope they jump at it.

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:25 PM EST (#131847) #

Well, I don't think it's quite so clear cut. Giles is a fairly unique talent. He has power masked by Petco, and an an extraordinary ability to make contact. You'd be hard pressed to find players at his age with almost 2/1 W/K ratios. What tends to happen as players age is a significant increase in their K rate. Giles can take that hit, and still be a great hitter. If he can stay healthy, I think that he will be fine through 37. But, that's a big if.

Strangely enough, Matsui's durability might be a negative. His heavy use in the outfield (he hasn't missed a game in 3 seasons) might take its toll on him in his 30s. I would feel better about it if he had been given a day off every month, with my mind firmly on Cal Ripken.

I'd probably take Giles.

Pistol - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:26 PM EST (#131848) #

I wouldn't be surprised if Matsui brings in at least $10 million a year for the Yankees in extra revenues from Japanese sources.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:32 PM EST (#131849) #

Either way you can't really go wrong. Either would be a much better investment than Burnett. The difference between Giles and Burnett is at least as large as the difference between Burnett and Dave Bush, unless you think baseball is over 80% pitching

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:46 PM EST (#131850) #

I agree. Actually, I think that Dave Bush will be better than Burnett in 2006, but that's definitely a subjective opinion.:)

John Northey - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:49 PM EST (#131851) #

Hmm. Matsui vs Giles.

Matsui - Enters his age 32 season next year. 5 years (which he wants) puts him at 36 in the final year. OPS+ numbers are 111,139,125 with a lifetime 297/370/484 line and very good defense.

Giles - Enters his age 35 season next year. 3 years (what it will take) puts him at 37 in the final year. OPS+ numbers are 148,126,148 with a lifetime 299/413/542 line and mediocre defense although he played 17 games in CF last year so maybe I'm wrong on that.

Both are clearly large improvements on Rios (OPS+ of 83 & 84 line of 273/321/390 lifetime) without losing too much on defense.

Both require contracts into the later half of their 30s. Giles has the NL vs AL thing going as a negative, plus the more advanced age although it isn't that big a spread considering contract length required for each.

Cal Ripken is who comes to mind when talking Matsui due to his consecutive game streak. From 32 to 36 Cal put up OPS+ of 98,107,89,103,93 after going 114,162,91 in the previous 3 years. The year he turned 37 he finally took a day off (OPS+ 89) and followed it with an OPS+ of 139 over 86 games and played just 2 more seasons. Of course, Cal played SS and 3B which are far more physically demanding than LF or CF or RF (Matsui played 115 in LF, 28 in CF, 19 DH, and just 4 in RF last year).

In truth, if I was the Jays I'd take either at 10 per but I'd be careful about the 5 year deal with anyone. Probably try for 3 plus 2 option years that become effective if Matsui plays 100 or more in season one and see if he bites. Still, I'm betting on NY resigning Matsui.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:50 PM EST (#131852) #

There's a very good chance Bush could be. Someone like Dudek could probably estimate it better than I could, but I think there's a pretty good chance that it happens. :)

Let's put it this way: If someone offered me 3:1 that Bush has a better VORP next year than Burnett, I'd take it.

Ron - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 02:53 PM EST (#131853) #

2 FA's I hear nothing about are Kevin Brown and Sammy Sosa (no I'm not saying the Jays should go after either player).

I wonder if it's the end of the line for both. I figure there must be some teams out there that is willing to give a spring training invite to the players mentioned above.

Oh yeah what happened to Juan Gone? I believe he got injured at the beginning of the season but I haven't heard anything about an official retirement.

Aw how the mighty have fallen...........

earlweaverfan - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 03:04 PM EST (#131854) #

Let me ask this - what is it about the current climate that makes the 'block-buster trade' less easy to make? This seems to be the position that JP is taking, as quoted on the Jays website:

Ricciardi said blockbuster deals aren't likely, though. He said he'll have a better chance of adding talent if he doesn't have to surrender any of his own.

"I think trades are getting harder to make because more teams are doing a better and better job of managing their payroll," he said. "They don't have to make trades to move money. It has to be their need for your need, and it's getting tougher and tougher to match up."

When the Jays made the trade that brought Carter to Toronto, that was a 'their need for your need' kind of trade. What has really changed? When was there ever a market for a 'our need, but not their need' kind of trade? Why is it getting tougher and tougher to match up?

When I think of the oft-cited suggestion that Cinncinati needs lots of pitching, and have both an extra strong outfielder and two solid hitting catchers who are capable of starting, what is it that makes JP believe that he could not put together a trade around those building blocks? Similarly, Texas has tons of great hitters (most of them stronger than Mench), and desperately need pitchers. Again, a multi-player trade ought to be possible.

Or is JP on to some subtle difference in the trading marketplace that has escaped me? I do understand that the FA market is quite thin this year. But wouldn't that cause quite a number of teams to be more interested in trading, because they, too, will find it hard to get what they want and can afford in a free agent?

Anyone?

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 03:12 PM EST (#131855) #

I agree that it is no more difficult to match up needs now than it was 15 or 25 or 45 years ago.

Blockbuster trades are fairly rare, and usually require that the GMs involved have a lot of confidence. The McGriff/Alomar trade (Carter and Fernandez were the seconds in that deal) occurred after Gillick had been with the organization for almost 15 years. Perhaps his experience with Cecil Fielder in the late 80s led him to trust his judgment that Olerud was ready to take over from McGriff fully.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 03:16 PM EST (#131856) #

When the Jays made the trade that brought Carter to Toronto, that was a 'their need for your need' kind of trade. What has really changed?

There's always been those kinds of trades and will continue to be those kinds of trades.

In the past, though, there's been a lot of trades of the "we gotta get this guy off of our roster NOW because we need the payroll room." Trades like Gonzalez for Heredia and Fullmer for Cooper. Those seem to be a thing of the past - are there any teams in baseball trying to cut payroll? I can't think of one.

I think J.P. is right. At any rate, it's a pretty testable hypothesis - are there less trades involving establish major leaguers than there were five years ago? I suspect that it's probably true.

VBF - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 03:43 PM EST (#131858) #

Fisher Cats on the move?

Magpie - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 03:52 PM EST (#131861) #

the trade that brought Carter to Toronto

That's a type of trade that's pretty much extinct, because it really wasn't our-need in exchange for your-need. It was an old-fashioned challenge trade. It was basically my slugger and my star middle infielder in exchange for your slugger and your star middle infielder. Toronto did get to reconfigure things a little better (in 1990, they had a shortstop playing 2b, two first basemen, and Mookie Wilson playing regularly in the outfield...)

I've often suspected that it can be difficult to deal with a team that plays in an extreme ball park because there tends to be a distorted notion of how good their players really are. If Dante Bichette hits like an MVP in Denver, how do you trade him for something else? Many people think Texas has lots of great hitters. Look at these numbers, and name two:

NAME	         G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB SO SB CS BAVG  OBP  SLG OPS
D. Dellucci	57 202 46  53 12  0 15 110  36 37 52  2  1 .262 .382 .545 .926
Michael Young	78 336 51 111 19  1 12 168  44 28 41  2  2 .330 .384 .500 .884
G. Matthews Jr.	66 238 37  69 15  3  9 117  23 23 54  5  1 .290 .350 .492 .841
Rod Barajas	60 200 27  50 12  0 14 104  40 16 29  0  0 .250 .318 .520 .838
Mark Teixeira	81 333 43  90 20  2 13 153  56 35 76  1  0 .270 .349 .459 .809
Kevin Mench	74 279 33  71 17  1 12 126  38 25 30  1  2 .254 .317 .452 .769
Laynce Nix	30 110 17  32  4  2  3  49  17  4 22  2  0 .291 .316 .445 .761
R. Hidalgo	48 171 23  35  8  0  7  64  25 13 47  0  0 .205 .267 .374 .642
A. Soriano	78 326 42  73 16  0 11 122  31 15 74 16  0 .224 .265 .374 .639
Hank Blalock	80 334 26  77 20  0  5 112  29 21 70  0  0 .231 .276 .335 .611

But if you're running the Rangers, it's hard to go into trade talks and be realistic because your hitters are posting numbers completely out of whack with their real level of ability.

King Ryan - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 03:52 PM EST (#131862) #

If JP is unwilling to take on Abreu's contract (28M over the next two years,) then we can pretty much wave off Giles and Konerko, as that's what they are going to get.

I have a feeling this offseason is going to be disappointing.

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:07 PM EST (#131865) #

Magpie, I think the reconfiguration was very important in the Jays' success in 92-93. If the trade had not been made, they would have had Olerud and McGriff at first and DH and not really had room for Winfield/Molitor. I'll grant you that there was an element of "challenge" to it, but as the big players (as it appeared at the time and in hindsight) were McGriff and Alomar, reconfiguration was key.

As for Texas' position, it's a mixed bag. The market will perceive Mark Teixeira as much more valuable than Michael Young, and still see a lot of George Brett in Hank Blalock. This kind of thing can be exploited, as long as the team understand that Chris Young is better than he looks and Blalock is worse.

Mike D - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:07 PM EST (#131866) #

are there any teams in baseball trying to cut payroll? I can't think of one.

I can think of one, but just one: the Marlins. But with Carlos's back-loaded contract, it's unclear that there could be a deal to be made.

Paul D - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:10 PM EST (#131867) #

Magpie (and others) you can't just post a player's road splits and then say that's what he'd do in a different stadium. Instead of posting road splits you should look at park adjusted figures (like OPS+ or EQA), which already takes that stuff into account. You do that, and you'll see that Texeira, while perhaps not elite, is still one hell of a hitter.

Mike D - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:11 PM EST (#131868) #

My favourite memory of the Jays-Padres trade was the story that the entire room full of GMs broke into spontaneous applause -- for both clubs -- when the deal was announced at the Winter Meetings.

It was gutsy and mutually risky, and it was a rare species of trade even then.

Wildrose - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#131869) #

Blair's latest blog entry up.

Magpie - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:17 PM EST (#131870) #

Sure. No doubt Hank Blalock is better than those road numbers would suggest. I think what sometimes happens to players in parks like that is they fall into ways of hitting that work great at home and don't work at all on the road. I don't think if you traded for him, he'd hit .230 for you.

Well, he might hit .230 for you for half a season, before he adjusts...

In the meantime, though, it's still pretty hard to get a handle of how good these guys are.

Ron - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:19 PM EST (#131871) #

"If JP is unwilling to take on Abreu's contract (28M over the next two years,) then we can pretty much wave off Giles and Konerko, as that's what they are going to get.

I have a feeling this offseason is going to be disappointing."

A player like Kornerko was never really in the running. On WWJP he threw out the name Kornerko and a figure of 13 mil a season, and said he wouldn't go for that. It takes up too much of the payroll.

Also on WWJP he said he wants to make the lineup thicker 1-9. He wants more solid hitters like Hillenbrand. I expect JP to try to land hitters like Mench and Overbay.

If fans are going to be disappointed, it will be because of their own expectations that doesn't line up with the GM.

King Ryan - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:32 PM EST (#131874) #

I don't disagree with any of that. But a lot of fans are still talking about getting Brian Giles. Fact is, if Abreu's contract is too much money, then the Jays have no chance at Giles whatsoever.

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:38 PM EST (#131875) #

Some accounts of the Abreu discussions center on the Phillies' request for Vernon Wells coming back. It may not have been simply a money issue. I find that it is usually better to draw inferences from what GMs do than from what they are reported to have said.

VBF - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 04:48 PM EST (#131878) #

If the BJ Ryan plan fails, would the Jays be interested in this potential Hall of Fame reliever who appears to have parted ways with his team?

Although Paul Godfrey would have to install a giant bell on the 500 level for the Cheer Club

Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 05:01 PM EST (#131879) #

There's a huge difference between Ryan/Wagner and Hoffman. The Padres' offer seems reasonable to me.

Jordan - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 05:04 PM EST (#131880) #

Thankfully, the Mench talk has turned out to be nothing more than that. The off-season's off to a slow start, but that's the case for every team out there.

Abreu would obviously be a great fit, but he would be expensive well beyond the $14M/year salary. Not only would you be tying up much of your newfound payroll room, you'd have to clear the decks of your best prospects. Whether or not the Phillies asked for Wells -- I discount pretty much everything Elliott has to say about trades -- the price in talent going the other way would still be huge. Just at a guess: something like Hill, Rios, Bush and League. And there are personality questions that keep coming up with Abreu. It would be a bet-the-firm kind of trade, and while the Jays need to make a move, their backs aren't yet against the wall, which is where you'd have to be to make that kind of deal. There's plenty of time yet.

My gut still tells me that there's a perfect fit between the Jays and Devil Rays, pitching for hitting. We'll see if the teams agree.

Flex - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 05:11 PM EST (#131881) #

My favorite bit from Blair's blog:

"Least shocking news story of the week: Dave Stewart, who left front office work to become an agent, is upset that he hasn't been asked to interview for the Los Angeles Dodgers GM's job"

Ah, Dave. What would we do without your umbrage?

CeeBee - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 05:42 PM EST (#131882) #

"My gut still tells me that there's a perfect fit between the Jays and Devil Rays, pitching for hitting. We'll see if the teams agree."
The Cinncinati Reds strike me as another team that could make a workable trading partner.

greenfrog - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 06:15 PM EST (#131883) #

I agree that Cincy seems like a good match (they have Dunn; we have young pitching talent). If the Jays can add one elite or near-elite player to the mix, I'll be happy. Whether Dunn, Ryan, Giles, etc. Then work on acquiring the Hillenbrands of the world.

SK in NJ - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 06:25 PM EST (#131884) #

"Least shocking news story of the week: Dave Stewart, who left front office work to become an agent, is upset that he hasn't been asked to interview for the Los Angeles Dodgers GM's job"

Did Stewart also accuse the Dodgers of being racist? Or is that "Plan B"?

I'm a HUGE fan of Bobby Abreu. Hope something there can be worked out eventually, but I doubt it.

Dave Till - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 06:54 PM EST (#131887) #

The Alomar/Carter trade wasn't a challenge trade, IMHO. The Jays had two first basemen and two shortstops (McGriff, Olerud, Fernandez, Lee). They traded one of the first basemen and one of the shortstops, and got back an outfielder and a second baseman.

I still remember where I was when I heard about the deal. Whoa. That trade and the David Cone deal have been the two trades that surprised me the most.

joemayo - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 07:02 PM EST (#131888) #

As Blair said on prime-time tonight, this Abreu for Wells deal is not going to happen. It does very little to help the Jays. We lose our CF (and the biggest current offensive threat on the team) and gain a clubhouse cancer who costs a LOT (as well as being an amazing player, don't get me wrong). JP would still need to replace Vernon in CF, pick up 2 more "scary" bats and somehow land a SP with some money left over after taking care of Abreu's contract.

Not gonna happen.

Pistol - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 07:20 PM EST (#131889) #

So what's this clubhouse cancer comment based on?

Jabes - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 07:46 PM EST (#131890) #

Has anybody heard any news of Manny Lee being brought back into the organization to do some coaching?

John Northey - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 10:35 PM EST (#131894) #

Ah, the big two trades leading to the two World Series. I still have the Toronto Sun from the trade of Alomar/Carter for Fernandez/McGriff. All All-Stars near their primes. Carter was someone Gillick was after for a long time. I was hoping the Jays would get Alomar but doubted they would figure out the value a 22 year old second baseman could have. Glad I was wrong about that part. Getting Fernandez back for 93 was icing on the cake. The David Cone deal was my favorite of all time though. The day I heard about it I told everyone who would listen that the Jays just locked up a World Series. Cone looked to be the best, or nearly the best in the business at the time and, while Kent was good, Cone was damn good and proven.

For free agency I'd rank, in excitment level, Molitor first, Winfield second, and Clemens third. For shock value Molitor, Clemens. Winfield wasn't a big shock, just a 'woohoo'. Molitor was shocking because I figured Winfield would return to Toronto and Molly would stay in Milwaukee. Clemens I was hopeful but figured Texas was where he'd be.

Btw, for those who are wishing for more moves, don't forget good ol' Stand Pat Gillick from the late 80's who avoided trades like the plague between Doyle Alexander (86) and Jesse Barfield (89) with no major league for major league trade or free agent signings until the big AC-FM trade (or at least that is how it felt).

Petey Baseball - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:03 PM EST (#131895) #

Last I heard of Dave Stewart he was the pitching coach of the Milwaukee Brewers. What the hell happenened?

Petey Baseball - Friday, November 11 2005 @ 11:05 PM EST (#131896) #

At this point with so much competition, I just hope to hell the Jays just add one player that will make them better. They were ok last year until Doc got hurt.

leisl - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 05:11 AM EST (#131897) #

What about Kenji Jojima that was listed over at Baseball Analysts' top 30 free agents? He's a catcher and the Jays could use a second catcher.

Named For Hank - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 07:28 AM EST (#131901) #

J.P. answered at the end of the season on a Wednesdays With J.P. that he thought Jojima would be far too expensive.

He answered immediately, though, so you know they had a good look at the situation.

BallGuy - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 07:38 AM EST (#131903) #

Javier Vasquez has filed a trade request. The D-backs have until March 15 to trade him otherwise he becomes a free agent.
March 15. Wow. Arizona is really up against a tough deadline there.

Nick - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 10:13 AM EST (#131904) #

Burnett has narrowed the list of suitors from 22 to 10 and Toronto is in the final 10:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2005/11/12/1304044-sun.html

That's pretty much a non-event if you ask me. What's notable is that Burnett plans on doing visits until Thanksgiving before starting to zero in on a decision. I have a feeling that JP will get impatient waiting for AJ to make the rounds and try to decide between 10 teams. JP seems to be placing a premium on speeding up the process this year so he still has a Plan B available if Plan A doesn't work out. Then again, from the sounds of the Blair blog yesterday it appears JP might not have a choice as the whole market appears to be moving very slowly.

BumpWills - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 11:04 AM EST (#131907) #

Arizona isn't worried about the deadline. If they fail to meet it then Vazquez can either cancel his request and stay with the DBacks (for $12M per year) or he can opt out of his contract and become a free agent (not likely to find another contract for $12M per year). If Arizona can't find a good deal for him then they probably won't trade him and will put the ball back in Vazquez's court.

Pistol - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 11:56 AM EST (#131908) #

"Burnett has narrowed the list of suitors from 22 to 10"

Just a guess:

Tor
NYY
Bos
Bal
Det
Tex
NYM
Was
CHC
LAD

greenfrog - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 12:33 PM EST (#131911) #

When was the last time Toronto actually won the bidding for a premier free agent like Burnett?

andrewkw - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 12:50 PM EST (#131912) #

Clemens, that really wasn't that long ago depending on how you look at it.

Do you think the fact that AJ would be a #2 here is helping or hurting, where as in detroit, texas, baltimore and other places he would be counted on as the ace.

BumpWills - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 01:01 PM EST (#131913) #

I think it helps that he'd be a #2. Burnett wants to win and, as he saw in Florida, pitching wins.

VBF - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 01:40 PM EST (#131916) #

I recall reading somewhere that Burnett said that he would like to be a contributing factor in a team, but not the numero uno. That mentality also fits with his other mentality about not wanting a whole lot of media attention in bigger markets.

Mike Forbes - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 02:29 PM EST (#131917) #

I'd like to throw out the name of another Phillies outfielder... How about Pat Burrell? He has great power and still has some untapped potential. I think he'd look great in leftfield and batting cleanup for Toronto.

HollywoodHartman - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#131918) #

Whats Burrel's contract like?

BumpWills - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 02:47 PM EST (#131919) #

Burrell's contract info, from this great site, http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_05_mlbcontracts_archive.html

Pat Burrell of
6 years/$50M (2003-08)

$1.5M signing bonus ($1M up front, $0.25M 1/04, $0.25M 1/05)
03:$1M, 04:$4M, 05:$7M, 06:$9.5M, 07:$13M, 08:$14M
$0.1M for 1st place in MVP vote, $75,000 for 2nd, $50,000 for 3rd
full NTC
avoided arbitration 1/03
5 years/$8M (1998-2002)
$3.15M signing bonus
98:$0.75M, 99:$0.75M, 00:$0.8M, 01:$1.275M, 02:$1.275M
drafted 1998 (1-1)
agent: Greg Genske (formerly Jeff Moorad)
ML service: 4.131

Gets kind of hefty in 2007 and 2008 for a guy who strikes out as much as he does, but you do have to love his power and walk total. I'm not sure what a full NTC is (no trade clause?)

Jabes - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 03:46 PM EST (#131922) #

Willy Mo Pena seems like a similar player to Burrell without the huge contract.

BallGuy - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 03:52 PM EST (#131923) #

He would look great in the outfield in Toronto, big contract or not. His OPS is good and he would provide the power J.P. wants plus he is only 28. I took a look at his numbers at baseballreference.com: nice.
Burrell sponsors his own page at BaseballReference.com. He lists one of his hobbies as eating. (Hey! I thought that was mine!)

Jim - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 04:15 PM EST (#131924) #

160 strikeouts in one season and JP don't usually mix

CeeBee - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 04:33 PM EST (#131926) #

Of course Eric Hinske's 46 walk, 121 strikeout performance don't make his 15 homers look very impressive either.

TamRa - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 04:36 PM EST (#131927) #

Well, let me chime in and say I can't see what the hubbub about matsui is. I'd take Giles. On the AJ v. Javy front, I'm unable to decide which I like better in terms of being expected to be a 1-A sort of guy, BUT, there is something to be said for having our options open again in two years, especially with the flood of young starters coming along. One could argue that McGowan has a decent chance to be a 1-A guy in 2008.

In terms of potentially available hitters, I have to point out the rumors that were going around a few weeks abo that the D'Backs would like to shed Troy Glaus. We could do worse than him, even if it does mean either he or Koskie has to slide to 1B (assuming you don't turn around and trade Koskie). Depending on the cost in players (Hudson + League and and further-way prospect maybe?)...or some expansion on it (include Koskie in the dal and get the defensivly challanged Conner Jackson back?)

In any case, Glaus is signedfor 9/10.5/12.5 over the next three years which compares fovorably with Giles or matsui....and even better if you include Koskie or (please God!) Hinske in the deal.

It all depends on how badly the D'Backs want to shed contract and how much interest otherteams show. Maybe the team that wins is the team that can take both Glaus and Vaz as a set. A combined 17.5 in 2006, 20 in 2007, and 12.5 in 2008. Send back Koskie or Hinske in the deal, along with what you could reasonably project for Hudson...and you still have money to add a closer, and another hitter.

BTW, regarding closers, why aren't we talking more about Trevor Hoffman?

King Ryan - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 06:06 PM EST (#131928) #

Probably because he's 39 years old and wants like 8mil/year.

CeeBee - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 06:49 PM EST (#131929) #

"Probably because he's 39 years old and wants like 8mil/year"

Sounds like a good reason for a 1 year incentive laden contract.

BumpWills - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 07:00 PM EST (#131930) #

"Willy Mo Pena seems like a similar player to Burrell without the huge contract."

There is a huge difference between Burrell and Pena. Burell has a 15% walk rate and a 24% K rate; Pena has a 6% walk rate and a 35% K rate. That's the diference beween a star and a liability.

Magpie - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 07:04 PM EST (#131931) #

San Diego offered Hoffman $10 million over two years. He's looking for $25 million over three years (which happens to be what San Diego's latest offer to Giles was for.)

Jabes - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 08:57 PM EST (#131934) #

There is a huge difference between Burrell and Pena. Burell has a 15% walk rate and a 24% K rate; Pena has a 6% walk rate and a 35% K rate. That's the diference beween a star and a liability.

Pena's also five-years younger and at 400,000 a season much less of a financial liability than Burrell. Also, he was able to hit his 19 HR in less than 100 games (he hit 26hr in 110 games in 2004) this year. He hits 30 + given the chance to play a full season.

Jabes - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 09:24 PM EST (#131935) #

Burrell age 23: .260 .359 .463
Pena age 23: .254 .304 .492

BumpWills - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 10:11 PM EST (#131936) #

If Pena can improve his plate disipline then he may be Sammy Sosa in a few years. I've got no trouble picking up Pena and letting him platoon with Cat. But Burrell was brought up in the context of trying to win now. Corner outfielders with .304 OBA don't often play everyday on winning teams. If we can get Pena as a 4th OF then great, we may have an MVP in a few years, but I think he will be a liability in 2006.

As long as we're talking about Red's in the outfield, rumour is that they will part with Dunn for the right offer. I think JP should make the right offer.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 12 2005 @ 10:54 PM EST (#131938) #

When Dunn was 23 his OBP was .400 (career .383 to Pena's .303). Dunn now walks over 100 times a year (to go along with his 40+ HR). He's the one to go after.

Dylan - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 12:49 AM EST (#131940) #

I havnt had a chance to read all the posts but Id like to see the Jays pick up Huff. He had an off year but everyone has one eventually, look at Konerko, everyone wrote him off a couple years ago. Dunn would also be nice, give Vernon some protection.

Another thing I hear is talk of trading Rios, I dont understand this at all. He was fast tracked to the majors, a ton of pressure is put on him and all in all he had a solid year. But he's only 23 (or so), I remember another prospect who wasnt given time to develop and immediatly shipped off to cincy, boy itd be nice to have him in the lineup. Plus the fact that he's younger than Adams and still improving.

Mench is not the answer for the Jays, he is barely an upgrade over the platoon in left, plus the fact he's gonna cost more in a trade than he's worth. I dont see teams pitching to Wells so they dont have to face Mench with guys on. He played in a stacked lineup in Texas, he should have decent numbers. Look at Delucci, are we gonna run out and trade for him, he did have better numbers.

Just because we have some money to spend, doesnt mean we have to spend it just for the sake of spending. JP has very little room for error, a couple of big contracts and that 20 or 30m is gone. This still isnt a big market team. JP seems to fall in love with a player, look at Arnold, he still seems to be pumping him up, and thank god we didnt sign Clement, who we offered more money for (apparently). I just dont want to see mortgage the future, eiter financially or by trading away the future.

Dylan - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 12:54 AM EST (#131941) #

Pena cant hit a fastball. Throughtout the minors he had great plate discipline, at one time JP offered Wells for Pena. For some reason or another he's lost batspeed. Comparisons to Sosa arnt really fair, even with weak plate discipline Sosa was still hitting between 25 and 40 HRs a year.

TamRa - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 12:55 AM EST (#131942) #

Well, he does want three years but almost no one has been as dependable as Hoffman. If it looks like Ryan is going through the roof (thanks, no doubt, to the Yankees) I would nail down Trevor while folks are still wrestling over Ryan and Wagner. Assuming he'd come here. Hoffman has showed ZERO signs of being less effective and the injury is clearly behind him. And the best closers have been known to go into their 40's without slowing down.

Newton - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 02:00 AM EST (#131943) #

If Cincy is in fact willing to trade Dunn he should, without question, be the Jays primary target.

Dunn will put up a 1.000 OPS every year for the next 5 years.

Dunn is a sure thing and in my view is infinitely more valuable than AJ "Doc Andrews" Burnett and warrants investing a comparable amount of cash AND trading organisational depth to acquire.

Though I love Burnett's groundball tendencies and K/IP stuff if you can't consistently dominate in FLA, good luck doing it in the AL East. He will be significantly overpaid as the biggest name pitcher on the market and there is no way he makes it through the next 5 years without significant injury.

Acquiring Dunn and signing a discounted Erubiel Durazo would make for a significantly upgraded offence and likely leave enough cash to acquire some pitching help.

I hope the Jays don't give Batista up for nothing, I feel he's fairly paid and should be used as a spot starter/set-up man. He doesn't have the durability to start 30 plus games or the psyche to close but can give you 150 high quality, high leverage innings if utilized as he was in Arizona.

BumpWills - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 10:28 AM EST (#131948) #

"Pena cant hit a fastball. Throughtout the minors he had great plate discipline, at one time JP offered Wells for Pena. For some reason or another he's lost batspeed. Comparisons to Sosa arnt really fair, even with weak plate discipline Sosa was still hitting between 25 and 40 HRs a year"

Actually Pena's minor league walk rate was 7%, only slightly greater than the 6% he has acheived at the MLB level. Has he really lost bat speed? In the minors, 1439 AB, 50 HR, .245 BA, .406 Slg and .161 isolated power. MLB, 830 AB 51 HR, .248 BA, .477 Slg and .229 isolated power. If anything I think his bat speed has increased. Good comparisons at this age include Jesse Barfield and Pete Incaviglia. (reference: http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/penawi01.shtml)

Jabes - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 01:21 PM EST (#131958) #

If Pena can improve his plate disipline then he may be Sammy Sosa in a few years. I've got no trouble picking up Pena and letting him platoon with Cat.

If anyone should be platooning in the Jay's OF I think Rios should be. Personally, I would like to see him platooned with Gross and see if either one of them emerges.

R Billie - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 02:29 PM EST (#131963) #

Dunn seems like a .900 ops player to me. His career high is .950 though granted that's only through age 25. It's possible he may have some improvement or a career year or two ahead of him that sees him surpass 1.000 ops. But to say he's a cinch to surpass 1.000 ops for five years running is a very strong statement IMO.

Especially since for his career his home OPS is 100 points higher (.952) than his road OPS (.853). Great American is one of the better hitting parks going. Where I do agree he can be of great service is the last two years (again with help from his home park) he's had a 1.000+ ops against righthanded pitchers. There is no-one on the current edition of the Jays that performs to that level. It would be great to have a couple of bats who can do that to compliment the left-leaning strength of Wells and Hillenbrand.

Adam Dunn is a VERY good player. But he's going to be fairly expensive in salary the next few years, not to mention the initial investment in players. He is a safe star to invest in, but he has a ways to go before he even gets to Delgado territory. .952 ops is a career average for Delgado, not a career high and he started his career slower than Dunn. Dunn is not really a pure hitter.

Jabes - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 03:12 PM EST (#131968) #

If the Jays ask for Dunn, the Reds will ask for Halliday. We've heard of the Reds trading their surplus OFs for years and they never do.

Newton - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 04:19 PM EST (#131973) #

Dunn is attainable precisely because he will be expensive over the next few years, otherwise he'd be untouchable.

I'll revise my earlier post and state that Dunn will be a .950 OPS player over the next 5 years.

Dylan - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 04:41 PM EST (#131975) #

I was thinking of Carlos Pena for some reason, Wily Mo is a different story.

Named For Hank - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 05:00 PM EST (#131977) #

I just dont want to see mortgage the future, eiter financially or by trading away the future.

But there comes a time when you have to mortgage the future for glory today, and that time is coming soon for the Jays. Look at the collapsing Yankees -- is it because they're getting dumb in the front office? Nope, they've run out of genuine prospects to trade away for veterans and their backloaded contracts are starting to kill them. But they had a really spectacular run. Now they'll pay for it with at least a few seasons of mediocrity (maybe not next year, but soon) and then they'll have to shake things up and start all over again.

I think that now is the time that the Jays should be thinking about mortgaging their future. I'd rather have a couple of glorious seasons followed by four or five bad ones than a non-stop carousel of .500 baseball.

Dylan - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 07:39 PM EST (#131985) #

The Jays cant really be compared to the Yankees, they can just spend and spend. Im not saying we shouldnt spend or trade away prospects, we just have to make sure we make smart trades and signings. Let's not trade for the sake of trading if its not a true upgrade. M.Young for Loaiza, that was no upgrade, ash made the trade because he was desperate. Loaiza made no difference and Young leads the league in hitting. Spending bad money would, in my opinion, would be giving money and years a overpriced vet like Giles. Make smart trades but leave enough in the system to replace high priced veterns. Why not give your team a chance to win every year instead of putting all your eggs in one basket.

Named For Hank - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 08:14 PM EST (#131986) #

Let's not trade for the sake of trading if its not a true upgrade.

I don't think anyone would argue that just making random trades is a good idea.

The Jays cant really be compared to the Yankees, they can just spend and spend.

That's right -- the Yankees have a much larger window of opportunity when they get on a roll because of their large payroll -- my point was that even with all that money they had to mortgage their future to win.

Why not give your team a chance to win every year instead of putting all your eggs in one basket.

Because few if any organizations have been able to do that, year-in year-out. "Smart" trades, yes, but are their trades out there that will improve the Jays and not take away something from the future of the club? No one is going to trade Albert Pujols for Ken Huckaby. You gotta give something to get something.

By what measuring stick is Giles overpaid? "Makes a lot of money" and "overpaid" are radically different things. A lot of chatter has been devoted to how expensive Miguel Batista is, despite the fact that replacing him with a free agent of equivalent skill would be more money. Giles is only overpaid if there's another better player out there who can be had for less. Not who makes less, mind you, but who the Toronto Blue Jays could acquire for less.

VBF - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 08:59 PM EST (#131990) #

That's right -- the Yankees have a much larger window of opportunity when they get on a roll because of their large payroll -- my point was that even with all that money they had to mortgage their future to win.

And to further that, the true days of the Yankees dynasty was built from a team that didn't have a payroll 100 million dollars more than the league average. They still had a ton of money but the margin of the rich and poor was far closer.

Dylan - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:16 AM EST (#132005) #

"I don't think anyone would argue that just making random trades is a good idea."

Serious? I thought thats the only reason anyone makes trades, just for the sake of making random trades. Why trade for Mench if he's not an upgrade, in my opinion he's not. That comment really addressed what I said.

"No one is going to trade Albert Pujols for Ken Huckaby"

I dont know how St.Louis could not make that trade. Gimme a break. Im not saying dont give anything in a trade, just dont trade a guy like Rios when his value is low, relative to what it was a year or two ago, then have him light it up. Teams like SF have traded plenty of prospects but how many turned out, off the top of my head I can only think of Penny and the White Sox trade.

Teams like Oakland, Minnesota, Florida, and to a lesser extent Houston (higher payroll), have been able to contend consistently. But its nearly impossible for the Yankees the mortgage their future, their veterns allmost never price themselves off the team and they can allways fill holes in the lineup with money. When's the last time they had a losing season, like 91, 92. The Yankees dont need to rebuild.

I'm not quite sure what your arguing against, all Im saying is we need to be smart with the new money. If I was gm, would I sign Giles, not in a normal offseason, but I see your point that in this offseason pickings are a bit slim. I just think in the third year of that contract Giles is gonna be deadweight. Could be wrong, but a guy whos had a couple of knee surgeries at age 33, just playing the odds. He did have a solid OPS but why did he only hit 15 , the stadium, weak lineup, very possible. Yes I know many players have had great years into their mid to late thirties, dont need to hear some smartass comment about it. Can hear it now "Well I guess the Giants should be getting rid of Bonds then and I guess it's time for Houston to get rid of Clemons".

I think AJ would be a great signing, he's somewhat young and at the end of 5 year contract he would still be producing great numbers, barring injury. But thats another reason I feel they should go after Huff, he's in his prime(even tho he had an off year), at the end of along contract he would still be producing and he would make more of a long term impact on the team. I feel he would be worth giving up some good young talent for. I guess I just feel Giles would be a hired gun who may be on the downside of his career. But if he is signed, I hope he does well, and possibly reverts back to the days of being one of the best hitters in the game.

Is Batista overpaid, thats hard to say, but urbina's salary was 4 million last year while Batista's was a little higher, as was the era. But I don't think Batista is the problem for this team.

Jabes - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 08:51 PM EST (#132162) #

Is Lyle Overbay on JP's radar screen? I've heard he would be available in a trade now that he's arbitration eligible. It seems like the Jays and Brewers would match-up well in terms of making a trade. (minus the rath of Gord Ash.)

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