Baseball is done for 2005. Before we shed too many tears or get too embroiled in the off-season machinations, let's get sidetracked. Yes, it's time for Hall Watch 2005.

I was planning to start with the pitchers, but the retirement of Larry Walker has forced a change of plans. How can a website which promises "baseball from a Canadian perspective" not address the question of Walker's Hall fitness and chances? Easily, I suppose, but I cannot resist.

Larry Walker was signed as as amateur free agent by the Expos in 1984. His pro debut in the New York Penn League in 1985 at age 18 showed little of his future promise as he put up a .223/.297/.307 line, but with 12 stolen bases in 62 games. In 1986, he broke out, demolishing low A and high A pitching, hitting .285 with 33 homers and 72 walks in all. He continued at the same pace in double A at age 20, while stealing 24 bases in 27 tries. He missed 1988 due to injury, and played well, but not spectacularly so in triple A in 1989 and earned a cup of coffee in the majors for his troubles. In 1990, he put up a typical .241/.326/.434 line for a 23 year old prospect. He took 2 medium steps forward each of the next 2 years, and then finally in 1994 went .322/.394/.587. It was a fairy tale season, but in the end, the wolf got the better of Little Red Riding Hood and the season ended in August.

As a free agent after 1994, Walker signed with the Rockies, and proceeded to put up 9 seasons of gaudy numbers aided and abetted to a significant degree by the favourable environment. Walker then finished up his career with St. Louis, and his performance at the plate, even at age 38 was essentially the same as it always had been as he threw up a solid .289/.384/.502 line in a tough environment. Walker in his prime had all the skills that you could want in a player- hitting for average, hitting for power, plate discipline, baserunning ability, fielding reliability and range, and throwing ability. An intense competitor, he played more than 150 games in a season only once. Walker's various injuries took him out of games, but rarely seemed to have affected his performance when he played. Walker never won a World Series ring, but hit well in the post-season until 2005. His final post-season line was .230/.336/.440

Here is Walker's comparables chart:

Player         G     AB     H     HR     W     BA    OBP   SLUG   OPS+

Walker         1988  6907  2160   383    913  .313  .400  .565    140
Snider         2143  7161  2116   407    971  .295  .380  .540    140 
Klein          1753  6486  2076   300    601  .320  .379  .543    137
Parker         2466  9358  2712   339    683  .290  .339  .471    121
Evans          2606  8996  2446   385    1381 .272  .370  .470    127
Stovey         1486  6138  1771   122    663  .289  .361  .461    143
Stargell       2360  7927  2232   475    937  .282  .360  .529    149

Should Walker go into the Hall of Fame? The closest comparables are Duke Snider and Chuck Klein, both of whom are in the Hall of Fame although Klein was a late selection from the Veterans' Committee. Snider was an adequate centrefielder, but quite clearly did not have Walker's speed or arm. It is doubtful that he had greater defensive value. They were essentially the same offensive player, but Snider was a little more durable and consequently had an additional 1/2 season worth of plate appearances. Klein was similar to Walker in many ways, but not quite as good both at the plate and in the field. Harry Stovey was a similar quality of hitter, but absolutely dominated the league offensively to a greater degree than Walker. His exclusion from the Hall of Fame is a mystery.

Parker and Evans had longer careers, but over their careers were pretty clearly not in Walker's class. Their best seasons were significantly behind Walker's offensively, and while either may or may not have been better defensively in their prime, any differences one way or the other would be miniscule. Walker may not have been Jesse Barfield or Roberto Clemente, but he's right there with Parker, Evans and a number of others in the second rank of right-fielders as defenders. In my view, there is no comparison between Parker and Walker. Parker had a 5 year prime from 1975-1979 when he was a great player. After his drug problem, his weight spiralled and he was an ordinary player in the 1980s. Walker was a great player for many more years, and at his peak was at least as good, if not better than Parker. The comparison with Evans is more difficult. Walker was clearly better at his peak, but Evans put in more good but not great years. In the result, Evans produced more runs above a replacement player, whereas Walker put in more above an average player. As talent is normally distributed, runs produced by a player between replacement value and average value are in my view of less significance than runs produced above an average player. The salary differential between the star and the average player is, and has always been, larger than the difference between the average player and the marginal one for this reason. Evans is not in the Hall of Fame, and in my view should be, but if forced to choose between his career and Walker's, I'd choose Walker's. So, yes, Walker should go in the Hall of Fame, and it is not a particularly close call.

Whether he will go is a more difficult question. Walker did not have the profile of Duke Snider. I expect that he'll get 15-25% of the vote from the writers, many of whom will prefer the flashier but less valuable Sammy Sosa, and as it was with Klein, it will depend on the Veterans' Committee. I'd guess that the odds are roughly 40-60 or 30-70 against that the Committee will eventually choose him. He's better than Klein who's in, as good as Snider who was more famous and in, but probably not as good as Stovey who is out. All of these guys were far better than the trio of first baseman from the 20s who are in (George Kelly, Jim Bottomley and Bill Terry), and quite a few of the shortstops.

Now, we don't have to project Larry Walker's final numbers, so there will not be a soup recipe. Besides, it's not cold enough. But, projections and cold weather are both coming, so how about some vegetarian soup stock to get us ready? Clean nine leeks thoroughly and cut into 1/4" slices then chop 3 peeled cooking carrots and 3 stalks of celery with leaves. Mince or press 2 cloves of garlic. Saute vegetables in butter until tender. Add 18 cups of water and a goodly amount of freshed chopped parsley. Bring to a boil and then simmer gently for 2 hours. You'll get about 16 and 1/2 cups of stock or 5 3 and 1/2 cup containers, which are perfect for the freezer, and most soup recipes.

Next, we'll update some of last year's Hall Watch stories, before moving on to the pitchers.