OFFENSE
Runs Scored (ranked by RS+ *)
Team RS/G Factor RS+NYY 5.50 1.00 116 BOS 5.61 1.02 114 TAM 4.65 0.97 100 TOR 4.77 1.04 97 BAL 4.49 0.99 95 OPS (ranked by OPS+)
Team OPS Factor OPS+NYY .806 0.99 114 BOS .809 1.03 112 TAM .754 0.98 103 BAL .761 0.99 103 TOR .736 1.04 91
Toronto and Baltimore ended up similarly mediocre in terms of scoring runs, but Baltimore had an OPS+ of 103 while Toronto’s was only 91. How did Toronto scores so many runs relative to its weak OPS+ while Baltimore did the opposite? Here’s one reason:
Percentage of Home Runs with Runner(s) on Base:
1. Toronto (54%)
...
AL Average (44%)
...
14. Baltimore (39%)
Having said that, Toronto’s rate stats with runners on base are nice (.268/.340/.435) but don’t leap off the chart. For whatever reason, the Jays managed to score more runs than their peripherals would predict. That’s why they have a solid Pythagorean record of 89-73 but only an 80-82 “third-order” record per Baseball Prospectus.
PITCHING AND DEFENSERuns Allowed (ranked by RA+)
Team RA/G RA+ ERA ERA+TOR 4.37 111 4.08 111 BOS 4.99 97 4.76 94 NYY 4.86 96 4.48 96 BAL 4.96 93 4.58 94 TAM 5.78 79 5.38 79
Toronto excelled at run prevention, allowing only 4.4 per game in a hitter-friendly park. Plenty of teams have won divisions with worse pitching and defense. No other AL East team was even average at preventing runs. Where did the rest of the above-average pitching go? Chicago, Oakland, Minnesota, LA, and Cleveland.
Oh, Tampa Bay. The Rays allowed 5.8 runs per game in a pitcher’s park and in a league where scoring declined a quarter-run per game from the previous year. Tampa Bay’s RA+ of 79 is the 19th-worst since 1900 and the fifth-worst in the history of divisional play (1969-present).
Incidentally, Kansas City also had an RA+ of 79. Grim.
Rotation (ranked by ERA+)Team IP/G ERA ERA+TOR 5.8 4.22 107 BOS 6.2 4.58 98 NYY 6.0 4.57 94 BAL 5.7 4.83 89 TAM 5.6 5.62 76 Bullpen (ranked by ERA+)
Team ERA ERA+TOR 3.82 118 BAL 4.13 104 NYY 4.28 101 BOS 5.19 87 TAM 4.96 86
Toronto didn’t get the most innings from its rotation but did lap the field in preventing runs. Typically, teams have a lower ERA+ in the rotation than the bullpen, so Boston is really about average. The Jays again easily outdistanced the divisional competition with its bullpen. The numbers for Boston and New York show just how heavily they relied on their bats.
* RS+ is an index of a team’s scoring relative to the league average and adjusted for home park. 100 is average, and higher is always better. Same methodology applies to OPS, runs allowed (RA), and ERA. I use a two-year park factor. Baseball Prospectus probably has, and Baseball Reference probably will have, slightly different park factors because there’s a jillion different ways to calculate them.
