I never began to command any of my pitches. I obviously didn't get ahead, and when I did, I didn't make good pitches. I expected myself to bounce back and do whatever I could to save the bullpen from getting more work than they needed. Really, they did a great job, and I think they gave us a chance to win. Unfortunately, that first inning made it really tough.
Lilly faced 11 batters, and retired just three, allowing three walks and five hits, and mixing in a wild pitch as well. The Yankees first two hitters - their two middle infielders - greeted him with a pair of opposite-field home runs. Then the sluggers started marching up to the plate. Lilly kept them in the yard, but couldn't keep them off the bases. It was just the second time this year that the Jays' starter couldn't even get through the second inning - Chad Gaudin also retired just three Oakland hitters in his second start back in June.
Lilly's Game Score? That would be 24, which is not so good. It is my purpose tonight, in my penultimate Game Report of 2005, to have some fun with Game Scores. This seems a fortuitous idea, because there's very little fun to be had rehashing last night's game.
First a reminder of how these things work. You calculate a Game Score this way:
Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
Bill James designed the Game Score so that the "average" start would score at about 50. It didn't quite work out that way, as the average Game Score proved to be a little lower than 50 even in 1988. As offense has increased over the past two decades, the average Game Score has declined accordingly, but 50 is still reasonably close to the middle. The Blue Jays Average Game Score in 2005 is 49.8, and the Blue Jays pitching staff is a little above-average - the starters rank 14th in the majors with a 4.18 ERA, despite working in the DH league (where they rank fifth).
Or you could look at it this way - a Game Score of 50 and above is almost always a Quality Start. The Jays have 80 games that score higher than 50, and 74 of them were Quality Starts (the exceptions are almost all starters who came out before completing the sixth). Likewise, a Game Score below 50 is usually not a Quality Start. Toronto now has 73 such games, and there are just 5 Quality Starts among them. The worst game among them is Josh Towers' 6-2 loss to the Yankees on August 7 - he gave up 10 hits and 5 runs, and the Game Score was 38. It's still a Quality Start because he went 6 innings and gave up just three earned runs. Call it a Cheap Quality Start.
Cheap Wins are more common, of course, and Lilly (twice) and Chacin all got credit for winning games that were even worse.
If we go by Games Scores, the Blue Jays have been involved in the two best pitched games in the majors this season. The best of all was Chris Carpenter's one-hit shutout of Toronto on June 14, in which he struck out 10 and walked just one. Next in line, and best in the AL, was Roy halladay's two-hit shutout of the Twins on May 29 (10 strikeouts, no walks.). Six other NL games score at 90 or better -another two from Carpenter, as well as outings from John Patterson, Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy, and Derek Lowe. Rich Harden has the only other AL game checking in at 90 or better.
So, obviously Toronto has had 1 start this year that scored 90 or better. They won the game. Hmmm. I feel a Data Table coming on... Actually, I feel several coming on. And some pretty pictures, too. Why not?
GS Games Pitcher's Team Pitchers
90+ 1 1-0 1-0 Halladay (1)
80-89 2 2-0 2-0 Halladay (2)
70-79 15 12-1 14-1 Halladay (4), Towers (3), Chacin (3), Bush (2), Lilly (2),
Downs (1)
60-69 30 16-6 17-13 Bush (7), Halladay (6), Towers (5), Chacin (5), Lilly (4),
Downs (2), McGowan (1)
50-59 32 16-7 21-11 Towers (10), Chacin (9), Lilly (3), Bush (3), Downs (3),
Walker (2), Halladay (2)
40-49 27 6-12 8-19 Chacin (8), Towers (4), Lilly (4), Bush (4), McGowan (3),
Downs (2), Halladay (1), Gaudin (1)
30-39 27 3-14 9-18 Lilly (6), Chacin (5), Towers (4), Halladay (3), Bush (3),
Downs (3), Walker (2), McGowan (1)
20-29 13 0-10 3-10 Lilly (5), Towers (3), Chacin (2), Bush (1), McGowan (1),
Gaudin (1)
10-19 5 0-4 0-5 Towers (2), Bush (2), Gaudin (1)
0-9 1 0-1 0-1 McGowan (1)
First, let's note the obvious. You would expect that the team's record would be worse than the starter's record in well-pitched games. This is because when these games are lost, it's almost always the bullpen that loses them. And likewise, the team's record should be better than the starter's record in badly-pitched games, for reverse variations on the same theme. Either the starter couldn't go five, or the team had to rally and win it for the bullpen. These two opposing tendencies meet, quite clearly, somewhere in the 40-49 range of Game Starts.Is there a nugget, amongst all of this dross? I think there is. Games that score at 60 or better are outstanding pitching performances. The last such game turned in by a Jays starter was Chacin's very tough loss last week - 7 IP, just 1 run allowed. It scored at 60 even. Anyway, it's not at all surprising that the Jays starter who is most likely to give you one of these High Quality outings is Roy Halladay, who throws these games two times out of three - 68% (13 out of 19 starts). And after him comes... Dave Bush? Yes, indeed, at 41% (9 of 22). It makes intuitive sense, to me anyway, that a young pitcher capable of throwing a lot of high-quality games just might have more upside than other pitchers who don't hit the same heights as often, even if their overall performance has been more impressive. Obviously Gustavo Chacin has had a much better season than Dave Bush. But Bush has thrown more really good games than Chacin, or Josh Towers, and in significantly fewer starts as well.
If that's surprising, the fact that Bush has gone 3-4 in those 9 games isn't at all surprising to anyone who's observed his season. And isn't it time for a colourful graphic:
>
Let's take a quick peek at the five main starters:
Halladay:
Average Game Start: 63.7
Median Game Start: 68
Cheap Wins: 0
Tough Losses: 2
Towers:
Average Game Start: 48.4
Median Game Start: 52
Cheap Wins: 2
Tough Losses: 4
Chacin:
Average Game Start: 51.1
Median Game Start: 52
Cheap Wins: 1
Tough Losses: 1
Bush:
Average Game Start: 49.5
Median Game Start: 54
Cheap Wins: 1
Tough Losses: 4
Lilly:
Average Game Start: 46.0
Median Game Start: 42
Cheap Wins: 2
Tough Losses: 1
Finally, here is the biggest Data Table of them all: it's just the lines from all 153 game starts. So that you too can amuse yourselves at your leisure.
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO #Pit BFP GS DEC Apr. 4 @TB W 5-2 Halladay 7 9 2 2 0 0 7 91 29 58 W(1-0) Apr. 5 @TB W 6-3 Chacin 5 3 1 1 1 1 3 73 19 59 W(1-0) Apr. 6 @TB L 8-5 Towers 6 4 1 1 1 0 6 86 22 66 - Apr. 8 BOS L 6-5 Bush 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 84 20 46 L(0-1) Apr. 9 BOS W 12-5 Halladay 6 7 5 5 1 1 2 94 25 39 - Apr. 10 BOS W 4-3 Lilly 5 6 1 1 0 1 6 82 22 56 - Apr. 11 @OAK W 10-3 Chacin 6 8 2 2 1 1 4 100 26 51 W(2-0) Apr. 12 @OAK W 5-2 Towers 7.2 6 2 2 0 1 6 100 27 59 W(1-0) Apr. 13 @OAK L 6-3 Bush 7 5 2 2 1 1 3 103 25 61 - Apr. 14 @TEX W 2-1 Halladay 9 5 1 1 0 1 9 118 33 81 W(2-0) Apr. 15 @TEX L 4-2 Lilly 5 5 3 3 1 4 3 90 23 44 L(0-1) Apr. 16 @TEX W 8-0 Chacin 8 2 0 0 0 2 3 107 28 79 W(3-0) Apr. 17 @TEX L 6-5 Towers 2 8 6 6 2 0 0 40 14 16 L(1-1) Apr. 18 @BOS L 12-7 Bush 2 7 7 7 1 2 3 69 15 15 L(0-2) Apr. 19 @BOS W 4-3 Halladay 8 4 3 3 2 2 3 101 30 63 W(3-0) Apr. 20 NYY L 11-2 Lilly 3.1 6 6 6 0 2 2 54 18 24 L(0-2) Apr. 21 NYY L 4-3 Chacin 6 6 4 4 0 2 5 109 26 47 L(3-1) Apr. 22 BAL L 13-5 Towers 6 8 4 4 2 0 5 80 24 45 - Apr. 23 BAL L 4-1 Bush 8 5 1 1 1 1 2 107 31 69 L(0-3) Apr. 24 BAL L 7-1 Halladay 6 9 6 6 2 1 4 94 29 33 L(3-1) Apr. 26 TB W 7-5 Lilly 6 9 5 5 2 1 4 85 27 37 W(1-2) Apr. 27 TB W 8-2 Chacin 8.2 7 2 2 0 2 3 113 32 58 W(4-1) Apr. 28 TB W 7-4 Towers 7.2 6 3 1 0 0 6 100 27 60 W(2-1) Apr. 29 @NYY W 2-0 Halladay 9 3 0 0 0 1 9 115 32 89 W(4-1) Apr. 30 @NYY L 4-3 Bush 7 8 3 3 1 0 4 107 28 53 - May. 1 @NYY W 8-6 Lilly 5 8 6 6 1 2 4 84 24 29 - May. 2 @BAL W 6-2 Chacin 7.1 7 2 2 0 5 2 107 32 53 - May. 3 @BAL W 1-0 Towers 8 3 0 0 0 1 2 92 25 77 W(3-1) May. 4 @BAL L 5-1 Halladay 7.1 12 5 5 1 2 2 113 33 34 L(4-2) May. 6 CWS L 5-3 Bush 5 5 2 1 0 1 4 79 20 54 - May. 7 CWS L 10-7 Lilly 2.2 6 6 6 3 1 3 54 12 21 L(1-3) May. 8 CWS L 5-4 Chacin 6 9 5 5 2 2 5 104 28 37 L(4-2) May. 9 KC W 6-1 Towers 8 7 1 1 0 1 5 108 31 68 W(4-1) May. 10 KC W 3-1 Halladay 9 8 1 1 1 0 5 97 32 72 W(5-2) May. 11 KC W 12-9 Bush 4.2 7 4 4 0 0 3 74 18 34 - May. 13 @CLE L 6-4 Lilly 2.2 3 5 5 0 5 1 67 13 25 L(1-4) May. 14 @CLE L 3-2 Chacin 2.1 2 2 2 0 3 1 51 12 43 - May. 15 @CLE W 5-2 Halladay 8.2 5 1 1 0 3 6 124 30 68 W(6-2) May. 17 @MIN W 10-3 Towers 5 7 2 2 1 1 2 84 21 46 W(5-1) May. 18 @MIN L 3-2 Bush 8 7 3 3 2 0 5 106 30 61 L(0-4) May. 19 @MIN L 4-0 Chacin 5 7 4 4 0 2 4 105 25 39 L(4-3) May. 20 WAS W 6-1 Lilly 6 5 1 1 0 0 8 89 24 66 W(2-4) May. 21 WAS W 7-0 Halladay 7 4 0 0 0 2 2 98 26 69 W(7-2) May. 22 WAS L 9-2 Towers 4.1 7 5 5 0 1 1 70 21 29 L(5-2) May. 24 BOS W 9-6 Bush 3 5 3 3 0 2 0 54 13 35 - May. 25 BOS W 6-1 Lilly 7.2 4 1 1 0 3 4 102 28 63 W(3-4) May. 26 BOS W 8-1 Chacin 6 7 1 0 0 2 2 91 26 56 W(5-3) May. 27 MIN L 7-2 Towers 6 14 7 5 2 0 4 104 34 24 L(5-3) May. 28 MIN L 4-3 Bush 5.2 6 4 2 2 1 1 77 21 40 L(0-5) May. 29 MIN W 4-0 Halladay 9 2 0 0 0 0 10 99 30 93 W(8-2) May. 30 @SEA L 4-3 Lilly 5.2 6 4 4 1 3 3 65 23 36 L(3-5) May. 31 @SEA W 9-7 Gaudin 5 7 2 2 0 2 6 93 24 49 W(1-0) Jun. 1 @SEA L 3-0 Chacin 8.2 10 3 3 0 3 5 116 32 49 L(5-4) Jun. 2 @OAK L 5-3 Towers 4.1 6 5 5 1 4 2 87 23 29 L(5-4) Jun. 3 @OAK W 6-2 Halladay 7 6 1 1 0 2 6 106 27 65 W(9-2) Jun. 4 @OAK L 5-2 Lilly 6 6 4 4 1 3 2 107 27 43 L(3-6) Jun. 5 @OAK L 12-4 Gaudin 1 7 7 7 1 1 1 48 11 11 L(1-1) Jun. 6 @CHC W 4-1 Chacin 7 5 0 0 0 1 6 97 27 72 W(6-4) Jun. 7 @CHC W 6-4 Towers 5.1 5 3 3 1 2 3 78 23 47 - Jun. 8 @CHC L 2-0 Halladay 7 7 2 2 0 0 5 98 28 60 L(9-3) Jun. 10 @HOU L 4-2 Lilly 6 7 4 4 3 1 1 86 26 42 L(3-7) Jun. 11 @HOU L 6-3 Chacin 6 7 2 2 0 2 5 100 26 53 - Jun. 12 @HOU L 3-0 Towers 7 9 3 2 1 2 3 97 31 50 L(5-5) Jun. 13 STL W 4-1 Halladay 9 5 1 1 1 0 5 101 32 78 W(10-3) Jun. 14 STL L 7-0 Gaudin 4.1 10 5 5 3 1 4 86 24 26 L(1-2) Jun. 15 STL W 5-2 Lilly 7 4 0 0 0 3 6 97 26 72 W(4-7) Jun. 17 MIL W 9-5 Chacin 2.1 6 4 4 0 1 3 58 14 31 - Jun. 18 MIL L 5-2 Halladay 6 7 4 4 1 0 8 105 27 50 L(10-4) Jun. 19 MIL L 5-2 Towers 5.1 9 4 4 0 1 2 95 25 35 L(5-6) Jun. 20 BAL W 11-2 Lilly 7 3 2 2 1 2 10 103 26 71 W(5-7) Jun. 21 BAL L 9-5 Chacin 5 5 6 1 1 2 1 85 24 42 L(6-5) Jun. 22 BAL W 3-2 Walker 5.1 5 2 2 1 0 3 75 22 53 W(3-0) Jun. 23 BAL W 6-2 Halladay 8 7 2 2 0 0 8 98 31 68 W(11-4) Jun. 24 @WAS L 3-0 Towers 6 8 2 2 0 1 5 93 27 52 L(5-7) Jun. 25 @WAS L 5-2 Lilly 4 4 4 4 0 3 2 76 19 37 L(5-8) Jun. 26 @WAS W 9-5 Chacin 5.1 5 3 3 1 3 2 104 24 45 - Jun. 27 @TB L 4-3 Walker 6 7 4 4 2 3 0 81 27 39 L(3-1) Jun. 28 @TB W 3-1 Halladay 9 7 1 1 0 1 7 113 34 75 - Jun. 29 @TB W 12-3 Towers 7 2 1 1 0 1 7 89 25 75 W(6-7) Jul. 1 @BOS W 15-2 Lilly 6 7 1 1 1 2 3 100 26 55 W(6-8) Jul. 2 @BOS L 6-4 Chacin 5 8 4 4 0 1 3 85 24 37 - Jul. 3 @BOS W 5-2 Halladay 8 5 1 1 0 2 6 101 30 72 W(12-4) Jul. 5 OAK L 10-7 Towers 4 8 3 3 1 2 2 81 22 34 - Jul. 6 OAK W 8-0 Lilly 7 6 0 0 0 2 5 101 27 68 W(7-8) Jul. 7 OAK W 4-2 Chacin 6.2 5 2 2 1 1 4 98 22 54 W(7-5) Jul. 8 @TEX L 7-6 Halladay 3.2 6 3 2 2 0 4 48 15 40 - Jul. 9 @TEX L 12-10 Downs 3.2 4 5 5 1 1 1 51 13 30 L(0-1) Jul. 10 @TEX L 9-8 Towers 6 9 5 5 0 1 4 91 28 37 - Jul. 14 TB L 3-0 Lilly 7 4 2 2 0 2 8 101 28 67 L(7-9) Jul. 15 TB W 11-6 Chacin 5.1 9 5 5 2 0 3 92 26 33 W(8-5) Jul. 16 TB L 6-5 Towers 4 10 6 6 2 0 1 84 22 19 L(6-8) Jul. 17 TB L 5-4 Walker 6 6 1 1 1 0 2 83 24 58 - Jul. 19 SEA W 12-10 Lilly 5.1 7 5 5 2 3 4 96 26 35 W(8-9) Jul. 20 SEA W 9-4 Chacin 6 6 1 1 1 1 2 110 25 57 W(9-5) Jul. 21 SEA W 6-3 Towers 7 5 3 3 0 0 1 96 27 56 W(7-8) Jul. 22 @KC L 5-3 Walker 3.1 4 5 5 0 3 2 66 18 31 L(3-3) Jul. 23 @KC W 9-4 Bush 7 8 3 3 0 1 2 99 28 50 W(1-5) Jul. 24 @KC L 6-5 Lilly 4 5 4 4 1 0 3 74 17 39 - Jul. 26 LAA W 8-0 Chacin 8 6 0 0 0 2 4 95 29 72 W(10-5) Jul. 27 LAA W 3-2 Towers 7.2 6 2 1 1 1 2 99 27 57 - Jul. 28 LAA W 2-1 Bush 8.1 5 1 1 0 2 4 106 32 71 - Jul. 29 TEX L 4-1 Downs 5 5 2 2 1 2 8 87 22 55 L(0-2) Jul. 30 TEX L 3-2 McGowan 5 2 1 1 0 3 6 91 21 62 - Jul. 31 TEX W 5-1 Chacin 6.1 4 1 0 0 4 6 115 27 65 W(11-5) Aug. 2 @CWS W 7-3 Towers 8.2 8 3 3 1 0 7 105 32 58 W(8-8) Aug. 3 @CWS W 4-3 Bush 5 7 3 3 2 1 1 78 23 41 W(2-5) Aug. 4 @CWS L 5-4 McGowan 5 4 4 4 1 3 2 95 21 42 - Aug. 5 NYY L 6-2 Chacin 5 6 3 3 1 6 5 97 25 42 L(11-6) Aug. 6 NYY W 8-5 Downs 3.1 8 4 4 0 3 5 79 21 30 - Aug. 7 NYY L 6-2 Towers 6 10 5 3 1 2 4 91 29 38 L(8-9) Aug. 8 DET L 9-8 Bush 5.2 10 7 7 1 1 2 83 24 17 - Aug. 9 DET W 6-4 McGowan 6.1 8 4 4 0 1 4 90 26 44 W(1-0) Aug. 10 DET W 4-3 Chacin 7.2 5 3 3 2 4 3 101 29 51 - Aug. 11 DET W 2-1 Downs 7 2 1 1 1 0 4 89 23 73 W(1-2) Aug. 12 @BAL W 12-0 Towers 9 9 0 0 0 0 2 98 33 71 W(9-9) Aug. 13 @BAL L 1-0 Bush 8 4 1 1 0 0 3 95 30 73 L(2-6) Aug. 14 @BAL W 7-6 McGowan 3.1 6 4 4 0 4 1 73 19 29 - Aug. 15 @LAA L 5-4 Chacin 6 6 3 3 0 3 4 102 28 49 - Aug. 16 @LAA W 4-3 Downs 7.2 6 3 3 0 3 6 98 28 53 - Aug. 17 @LAA W 4-1 Towers 7.2 7 1 1 0 1 1 80 27 56 W(10-9) Aug. 19 @DET L 9-5 Bush 3.2 5 4 2 2 1 3 44 15 38 L(2-7) Aug. 20 @DET L 3-2 Chacin 7 5 2 2 2 1 2 90 25 60 - Aug. 21 @DET L 17-6 McGowan 4.1 9 12 10 2 2 2 95 28 1 L(1-1) Aug. 22 @NYY L 7-0 Downs 6 6 2 1 0 2 2 100 27 54 L(1-3) Aug. 23 @NYY L 5-4 Towers 7 6 2 2 0 0 3 71 25 60 - Aug. 24 @NYY W 9-5 Bush 6 5 0 0 0 2 7 106 25 67 W(3-7) Aug. 25 @NYY L 6-2 Chacin 6.2 9 6 6 2 3 5 112 29 29 L(11-7) Aug. 26 CLE L 9-3 McGowan 5 8 4 4 2 1 6 88 25 40 L(1-2) Aug. 27 CLE W 2-1 Downs 6 3 1 0 0 2 6 99 23 68 W(2-3) Aug. 28 CLE L 4-1 Towers 7 5 4 3 2 1 4 101 27 56 L(10-10) Aug. 30 BAL W 7-2 Bush 7 7 2 2 1 0 7 96 27 62 W(4-7) Aug. 31 BAL L 7-0 Chacin 7 7 5 5 2 2 4 84 28 45 L(11-8) Sep. 1 BAL L 5-3 McGowan 5.1 7 4 4 2 2 2 92 25 38 L(1-3) Sep. 2 TB W 4-3 Downs 7 7 3 3 1 2 11 98 29 60 - Sep. 3 TB L 3-2 Towers 8 5 2 1 0 0 3 81 30 69 - Sep. 4 TB L 1-0 Bush 7 6 1 1 0 0 5 98 28 66 L(4-8) Sep. 5 @BAL W 6-2 Chacin 6.1 4 1 1 0 1 5 88 24 65 W(12-8) Sep. 6 @BAL L 5-0 Lilly 2.1 3 3 3 0 5 2 63 15 36 L(8-10) Sep. 7 @BAL W 7-4 Downs 4.1 7 4 3 0 4 6 86 24 37 - Sep. 9 @TB W 7-2 Towers 6 9 2 2 0 1 5 90 27 50 W(11-10) Sep. 10 @TB W 3-2 Bush 8 4 2 2 1 3 3 103 30 66 W(5-8) Sep. 11 @TB L 6-5 Chacin 8.2 5 3 2 0 1 7 105 28 65 - Sep. 12 BOS L 6-5 Lilly 6.2 5 3 3 2 1 3 104 23 49 - Sep. 13 BOS W 9-3 Downs 5.1 6 3 3 1 1 2 96 22 45 W(3-3) Sep. 14 BOS L 5-3 Towers 8 7 5 3 2 1 5 104 31 56 L(11-11) Sep. 16 NYY L 11-10 Bush 3.2 6 6 6 2 2 1 63 17 21 L(5-9) Sep. 17 NYY L 1-0 Chacin 7 8 1 1 0 1 4 95 28 60 L(12-9) Sep. 18 NYY W 6-5 Lilly 6.1 5 3 2 1 1 6 102 25 58 W(9-10) Sep. 19 SEA L 7-5 Downs 5 7 3 3 1 1 2 92 24 42 - Sep. 20 SEA W 6-4 Towers 6 8 4 1 2 2 0 99 27 44 W(12-11) Sep. 21 SEA L 3-2 Bush 3.1 3 3 3 0 3 3 78 17 42 L(5-10) Sep. 22 SEA W 7-5 Chacin 4.1 7 5 5 0 4 3 92 23 28 - Sep. 23 @NYY L 0-5 Lilly 1 5 4 4 2 3 0 50 27 24 L(9-11) Sep. 24 @NYY Sep. 25 @NYY Sep. 26 @BOS Sep. 27 @BOS Sep. 28 @BOS Sep. 29 @BOS Sep. 30 KC Oct. 1 KC Oct. 2 KC
