A fine regular season for Ryan Patterson. I really want to be excited about a Jays hitting prospect -- is he someone I should be excited about. Can someone put his season into context relative to other "top" hitting prospects.

It's a bit difficult. The last 2 hitting prospects to really tear up the NYPL were Vito Chiaravallotti (.351/.469/.605 at age 22) and Carlo Cota (.320/.416/.521 also at age 22) in 2003. These guys were late-round draft picks. In 2004, Chip Cannon also at 22 went .271/.338/.495, while Adam Lind at age 20 (turning 21 in July) went .312/.377/.477. Patterson is pretty much where Lind was last year. He's a solid line-drive hitter, who's shown more power than Lind but is a year older. Patterson is a better defender. Lind was a 3rd round pick; Patterson a 4th rounder, but Jon Lalonde told us that the Jays were seriously considering him in Round 3.

What impresses me most about Patterson is that not only does he hit home runs, but has had quite a few triples as well.

Maybe the Jays would have been better off picking him in the third, and taking someone else in the fourth instead of Pettway.....

Thanks Mike. You mention late round selection (regarding Cota/Vitto) versus Patterson and Pettiway (4th and 3rd round selection). This raises and interesting (to me) question. Speaking only to the round itself and not the player selected, I have always been curious about the baseball draft and as to what rounds player expectations are typically higher.

For instance, we have high expectations for players drafted in the 1st round, sandwich picks, and those in the 2nd round. Does the same hold true for 3rd or 4th round picks? 5th rounders?

Maybe this is a silly question, but at what point (or round) in the draft do expectations for greatness (or at least average success) drop and, conversely, when do the terms "steal" or "surprise" become used to apply to a player who does succeed and was drafted in a later round (i.e. Piazza)?

In the NBA it is more straightforward...1st rounders, and more specifically, lottery picks (top 13) are typically expected to succeed in the NBA. Late first rounders and 2nd round picks have lowered expectations and when success happens (i.e. Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas), the GM's of the respective teams are considered astute and the drafted player a "steal".

The expected value of a draft pick declines slower in baseball than in basketball. About 1/2 of 2nd round picks will make the majors, and maybe 1/3 of those will have significant careers. For instance in 1995, 14 of 30 2nd round picks made the majors, with Beltran, Washburn, Tomko, Casey and Bellhorn being the highlights. In the 3rd round, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 will make the majors, with about 1/3 to 1/4 having significant careers. In 1995, 7 of 30 made the majors with Winn, Dempster and Arroyo being the highlights (it was a good year). In the 4th round, it's more like 1/4 making the majors with maybe 1/5 having significant careers. In 1995, 10/30 had major league careers, but the only highlight was Russ Ortiz. In many years, the 4th round does not produce a signficant major leaguer, but in some years it'll produce 3 (1997-Figgins, Byrnes and perhaps Nady). I hope that helps.

Maybe the Jays would have been better off picking him in the third, and taking someone else in the fourth instead of Pettway.....

It's far, far, far too early to judge who the best draft pick was this year. They haven't even played a full season yet.

A little article on Ryan when he won the batting title in summer ball.

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/Weekly/Week2004/ThisWeek/thisweek0829Monson_2004.htm