The Jays finally put some runs on the board, and thanks to Gregg Zaun, even managed to put one pitch over the wall. But it was a costly win, as Orlando Hudson left the game with a foot injury that might be pretty serious. Russ Adams also took a hard fall in the ninth inning on his second error of the ballgame, so all kinds of misadventures in the middle infield tonight. Toronto takes the season series 10-9 -- look for these two teams to be playing more significant September games in the near future.
Hey, great game. I saw a link on ESPN Insider saying something about a rumor about Hinske. Can anyone at least give me some idea what it's about... or a local media source.
Only rumor I've heard is that the Jays want to play him full time to try to raise his trade value.
Unsure of this ESPN rumor?
Unsure of this ESPN rumor?
espn rumor is one and the same...how is that a rumor...really?
I have a question some of us in the chat we're having fun mulling over.
By April 1st, 2006, who do you think will be the newest Jays, realistically speaking?
By April 1st, 2006, who do you think will be the newest Jays, realistically speaking?
Probably some guy trotted out as an April Fools Day joke. He won't be a Jay come April 2nd though.
Burnett, Millwood or Morris, one of those 3 would look great on the Jays.
Honestly I don't see JP doing anything much in the FA market this off season, likely we'll lose out of the big prize of the FA sweepstakes in Burnett.
I don't see a backup plan in place, and i can see our JP being just fine with the rotation being: Halladay, Lilly, Chacin, Bush, Downs w/ Towers non-tendered.
And considering we don't have any Free agents this off season, likely our lineup will be very very close to the same, with only minor callups maybe making the squad.
However (in my heart) Giles 06!!
I don't see a backup plan in place, and i can see our JP being just fine with the rotation being: Halladay, Lilly, Chacin, Bush, Downs w/ Towers non-tendered.
And considering we don't have any Free agents this off season, likely our lineup will be very very close to the same, with only minor callups maybe making the squad.
However (in my heart) Giles 06!!
And considering we don't have any Free agents this off season, likely our lineup will be very very close to the same, with only minor callups maybe making the squad.
I think you can count on Mr. Rogers opening up the check book for some a marquee acquisition this winter. I would be shocked if the same group come back next year. We have way to many average major leaguers/major league ready prospects, it wouldn't make much sense stuffing Gross or JFG in AAA for another season, as they wouldn't learn much more or at all in AAA. Gross, Griffin, along with Rios, Catalanotto and Johnson creates a log jam in the outfield. I think it's safe to say Wells would be penciled in as the centerfielder, and if Rios is back (which I hope so), he would start the lion share at right field, which leaves 4 players for left. I don't know if Cat is part of the Blue Jays' future plan, but unless the Jays plan on using the Freed Johnalanotto in left again next year, I don't see him staying. I think it is also safe to assume either one or both of Gross/JFG will be moved as part of a packaged deal or in a trade similar to the Jayson Werth-Jason Frasor deal. I haven't looked at any stats, but it's a safe bet that the blue jays corner outfielders are have below average production. Therefore, lets hope that Rios will develop into a 20HR hitter by next year in right, and either Gross/JFG/outside source would step up and produce a little more. I really don't think that Brian Giles is the answer to our anemic offense. He's 35 and is on the downward slope of his career. I say we shouldn't put so much trust in an aging slugger especially in the post-steroids era.
I'll be estatic is we could land either Burnett, Morris, or Millwood. They are all solid number two pitchers, and have been/will be Aces at some points in their career. And unlike Giles, they all in their primes and should have quite a few good years left in them. I'm sure the pitching-minded JP would attempt to upgrade the rotation either through FA or trade.
Does anyone know how much Lilly is making this year and is scheduled to make next year? He has been an enigma throughout his career and his starts are either Jackpots or Snake-Eyes, you never know what to expect from him. That's not what you want with your number 2 starter. At 29, I'm seriously doubting whether he would fully fulfill his potential and become the pitcher that he can be. However, I still thinks he could fetch quite a bit on the market (any ex-all-star left hander could make potential juicy targets), so it may not be a bad time to move him
I think you can count on Mr. Rogers opening up the check book for some a marquee acquisition this winter. I would be shocked if the same group come back next year. We have way to many average major leaguers/major league ready prospects, it wouldn't make much sense stuffing Gross or JFG in AAA for another season, as they wouldn't learn much more or at all in AAA. Gross, Griffin, along with Rios, Catalanotto and Johnson creates a log jam in the outfield. I think it's safe to say Wells would be penciled in as the centerfielder, and if Rios is back (which I hope so), he would start the lion share at right field, which leaves 4 players for left. I don't know if Cat is part of the Blue Jays' future plan, but unless the Jays plan on using the Freed Johnalanotto in left again next year, I don't see him staying. I think it is also safe to assume either one or both of Gross/JFG will be moved as part of a packaged deal or in a trade similar to the Jayson Werth-Jason Frasor deal. I haven't looked at any stats, but it's a safe bet that the blue jays corner outfielders are have below average production. Therefore, lets hope that Rios will develop into a 20HR hitter by next year in right, and either Gross/JFG/outside source would step up and produce a little more. I really don't think that Brian Giles is the answer to our anemic offense. He's 35 and is on the downward slope of his career. I say we shouldn't put so much trust in an aging slugger especially in the post-steroids era.
I'll be estatic is we could land either Burnett, Morris, or Millwood. They are all solid number two pitchers, and have been/will be Aces at some points in their career. And unlike Giles, they all in their primes and should have quite a few good years left in them. I'm sure the pitching-minded JP would attempt to upgrade the rotation either through FA or trade.
Does anyone know how much Lilly is making this year and is scheduled to make next year? He has been an enigma throughout his career and his starts are either Jackpots or Snake-Eyes, you never know what to expect from him. That's not what you want with your number 2 starter. At 29, I'm seriously doubting whether he would fully fulfill his potential and become the pitcher that he can be. However, I still thinks he could fetch quite a bit on the market (any ex-all-star left hander could make potential juicy targets), so it may not be a bad time to move him
Hard to say how serious Hudson's injury is, but if he misses the rest of the year, which has to be fairly likely as there's only three weeks left, does he still win the Gold Glove? I sure would expect so, but ya never know.
How can anyone say that Towers will be non-tendered when he has had nine consecutive quality starts. He may be elsewhere but it will be via trade, not as a non tender.
Hollywood, the Insider story merely relays the Griffin article suggesting that Hinske's being showcased.
Maybe Caramon was just joking about non-tendering Towers?
2006 will be Towers' first year of arbitration eligibility, so he will come _way_ cheaper than Lilly, who is in his third. Lilly made 1.9 MM in 2004 in his first arbitration year, which gives you an idea of what Towers has coming his way in 2006.
With the emergence of Scott Downs, I think Lilly may be the odd one out. Even factoring in his poor 2005, Lilly probably has a 5 MM arbitration award coming his way in 2006. This will limit his trade value, and may force the Jays to non-tender him. It will be like Jose Cruz Jr. all over again.
2006 will be Towers' first year of arbitration eligibility, so he will come _way_ cheaper than Lilly, who is in his third. Lilly made 1.9 MM in 2004 in his first arbitration year, which gives you an idea of what Towers has coming his way in 2006.
With the emergence of Scott Downs, I think Lilly may be the odd one out. Even factoring in his poor 2005, Lilly probably has a 5 MM arbitration award coming his way in 2006. This will limit his trade value, and may force the Jays to non-tender him. It will be like Jose Cruz Jr. all over again.
One other thing...
I don't like the idea of signing old, free agent sluggers like Brian Giles (who hasn't hit 30+ homers since 2002, and yes, I know PETCO is a hitters graveyard).
Wouldn't the Jays be better off trading with a team that has young hitting talent that is blocked at the major league level?
Ryan Howard (blocked by Thome)
Ryan Shealy (blocked by Helton)
Adrian Gonzalez (blocked by Teixeira)
Carlos Pena (blocked by Shelton/Young)
Tampa also has a major logjam of 1B/DH/LF/RH types, and will be looking to make room for Delmon Young (and B.J. Upton, once they realize he's not an infielder).
I don't like the idea of signing old, free agent sluggers like Brian Giles (who hasn't hit 30+ homers since 2002, and yes, I know PETCO is a hitters graveyard).
Wouldn't the Jays be better off trading with a team that has young hitting talent that is blocked at the major league level?
Ryan Howard (blocked by Thome)
Ryan Shealy (blocked by Helton)
Adrian Gonzalez (blocked by Teixeira)
Carlos Pena (blocked by Shelton/Young)
Tampa also has a major logjam of 1B/DH/LF/RH types, and will be looking to make room for Delmon Young (and B.J. Upton, once they realize he's not an infielder).
I agree with Jacko, I think Lilly will be the odd man out this offseason. The Jays need a pitcher with more reliability in the #2 slot to be a contender. However, I think Lilly (a starting LHP, one year removed from being an all star) should still have some value on the trade market, even if it's part of a package with Hinske or something.
For reliability, I think that Kevin Millwood might be the best available free agent pitcher. He's got a 3.15 ERA, and of his 25 starts so far this year, he's given up 3 or fewer runs 21 times, and has pitched 6 or more innings 20 times, and 7 or more 13 times. When you pitch that well, you're giving your team a good chance to win everytime you step on the mound. He's just had horrible run support, resulting in a 7-11 record. He'll probably cost less than A.J. Burnett too, since the hype is so much less.
For reliability, I think that Kevin Millwood might be the best available free agent pitcher. He's got a 3.15 ERA, and of his 25 starts so far this year, he's given up 3 or fewer runs 21 times, and has pitched 6 or more innings 20 times, and 7 or more 13 times. When you pitch that well, you're giving your team a good chance to win everytime you step on the mound. He's just had horrible run support, resulting in a 7-11 record. He'll probably cost less than A.J. Burnett too, since the hype is so much less.
I doubt Ryan Howard will be available unless Philly is desperate for something the Jays have. Thome has played just 59 games this year, vs Howard's 67. Howard is hitting 290/357/532 in the majors (AAA was 371/467/690). Yes, he'd look really nice at 1B or DH. Howard is 25, turning 26 during the offseason so he is at the stage where he has to play, but Philly could easily keep him on the bench if they so choose.
Now, what would it take to get him? Philly is weak at third (David Bell - 244/298/356), decent at CA, 2B and SS, rock solid in the outfield, the rotation is mediocre - Cory Lidle has started 26 games for example.
So the Jays would have to give up, I suspect, a solid pitcher, a third baseman, and possibly a prospect. Money isn't an issue to Philly, so if they like Hinske send him on down, but I suspect it would cost Aaron Hill and one of our starters (Towers or Lilly ideally, Chacin most likely, Bush might be required as well). It depends how high the Jay scouts are on Howard and how high the Phillies are on him and on the guys the Jays could offer. A match is possible though as they need two areas the Jays are deep in (3B and young pitching). Shame they aren't weaker in the outfield.
Now, what would it take to get him? Philly is weak at third (David Bell - 244/298/356), decent at CA, 2B and SS, rock solid in the outfield, the rotation is mediocre - Cory Lidle has started 26 games for example.
So the Jays would have to give up, I suspect, a solid pitcher, a third baseman, and possibly a prospect. Money isn't an issue to Philly, so if they like Hinske send him on down, but I suspect it would cost Aaron Hill and one of our starters (Towers or Lilly ideally, Chacin most likely, Bush might be required as well). It depends how high the Jay scouts are on Howard and how high the Phillies are on him and on the guys the Jays could offer. A match is possible though as they need two areas the Jays are deep in (3B and young pitching). Shame they aren't weaker in the outfield.
Wouldn't the Jays be better off trading with a team that has young hitting talent that is blocked at the major league level?
Yes, even if it's very expensive.
Brian Giles is not a slugger. He's one of the top 10 hitters in the game right now, as Sheffield was when the Yankees signed him. He's behind Pujols and probably A-Rod, and about anyone else you can make an argument. His translated batting statistics for this year are .318/.440/.533 with a 2-1 W/K ratio. This is perfectly consistent with his career record. For some reason, people often prefer .280/.380/.540 (i.e. 30-35 homers) to .320/.440/.530. He will be turning 35 in January, and so deterioration is of course possible. I'd take my chances.
He will be turning 35 in January, and so deterioration is of course possible. I'd take my chances.
Well, deteriation isn't possible. It's almost guaranteed. When you sign a free agent hitter at Giles's age to a big payday, the question is not whether you will overpay for performance, but how much you will overpay for performance.
If 2006 and 2007 are supposed to be the contention years, I'd much, much rather give up the talent and save the payroll, rather than blow the payroll and conserve the talent. Others see it differently; it's more of an opinion question in some ways.
Yes, some deterioration in Giles' performance is likely. I'd still rather be competing in the free agent market for Giles, a 34 year old with a good health record whose superficial statistics are unimpressive, than for Burnett, a younger starter who has had TJ and whose superficial statistics get a big boost from his context.
For some reason, people often prefer .280/.380/.540 (i.e. 30-35 homers) to .320/.440/.530.
The difference lies in the isolated power. Higher isolated power tends to indicate more extra base hits and/or more valuable extra base hits (homeruns instead of doubles). This tends to directly tie into a player's RBI total. The more isolated power, the more RBI a hitter tends to accumulate.
Giles isn't a homerun hitter and is probably more in the Paul Molitor category of hitter, a high average and lots of extra base hits but probably around 20 homeruns at this point in his career. Though with significantly more walks than Molitor would get.
He will decline but when he's currently hitting over .300 with a 2:1 bb/k ratio and a low strikeout to at bat ratio while still collecting a lot of extra base hits in a pitcher's park, Giles looks like he could deteriorate over the next three years but still be quite productive in the third year of a contract when he's hopefully still tradeable.
If you want to compete each of the next two years I can't think of a player that would help much more than Giles. Even if you have to pay him $4m too much in the last year of his deal. Miguel Tejada is going to be making a lot when his contract expires in another 4 years or whatever but I don't think the Orioles are regretting that they got a driving force in their lineup in the short term.
Giles might end up out of the Jays price range and maybe completely uninterested in Canada anyway. But if faced with the choice of adding two more Hillenbrand/Koskie level players averaging $5m a piece and one Giles averaging $10m+ over the next three years, I would much rather have the latter. I want the guy that I know is going to be a major presence in my lineup on a daily basis.
$10m on an aging but healthy and productive Giles seems like a much safer investment to me than spending in the same neighbourhood on Burnett.
So the Jays would have to give up, I suspect, a solid pitcher, a third baseman, and possibly a prospect. Money isn't an issue to Philly, so if they like Hinske send him on down, but I suspect it would cost Aaron Hill and one of our starters (Towers or Lilly ideally, Chacin most likely, Bush might be required as well). It depends how high the Jay scouts are on Howard and how high the Phillies are on him and on the guys the Jays could offer. A match is possible though as they need two areas the Jays are deep in (3B and young pitching). Shame they aren't weaker in the outfield.
As long as Thome heals up ok, there's no room for Howard on their roster. It's going to be very hard for the Phillies to find a taker for Thome's contract. Logically, they should see what they can get for Howard.
They probably have more leverage now than they did this time last year -- Thome's injury has given Howard a chance to show he can hit MLB pitching (which many had doubts about given how much he strikes out).
If the Phillies feel they need a 3B, then Hillenbrand is probably going to look very attractive to them. He's played to much this year that his counting stats are going to end up being very healthy. Even his current OBP (.344) has been pretty decent.
Lilly + Hilly + ______ for Ryan Howard?
What else rhymes with Lilly? That's the obvious choice.
My aunt Millie? R Billie?
My aunt Millie? R Billie?
Brian Giles is not a slugger. He's one of the top 10 hitters in the game right now, as Sheffield was when the Yankees signed him. He's behind Pujols and probably A-Rod, and about anyone else you can make an argument. His translated batting statistics for this year are .318/.440/.533 with a 2-1 W/K ratio.
His power is slipping.
During his peak seasons from 1999-2002 he slugged around .600 every year.
If that trend continues, he's not going be the "bona-fide power hitter" everyone has been clamouring for. He'll be a late 90's John Olerud. That isn't bad, but it's not the scary power hitter that this lineup desperately needs.
Then again, I do think that park effects might help reduce his price tag, which could end up making him a tremendous bargain.
See I like Giles, hes not a pure power hitter, but he is one of the best #3 hole hitters there is. Doubles, above average power, Walks like a machine.
We need more of these table setters in our lineup, who can also drive in runs.
People with his OBP don't come on the market very often. Yes, I think his power will slightly decline, but he still has an OPS over 1000 on the road, good for probably 3 more years of great production.
As for the Towers, yes, I was serious about a DFA because if there is one thing about towers is that he is consistantly inconsistant. If he shocks me and pitches well in his last few starts, I might change my tune, but this guy isn't consistant at ALL.
We need more of these table setters in our lineup, who can also drive in runs.
People with his OBP don't come on the market very often. Yes, I think his power will slightly decline, but he still has an OPS over 1000 on the road, good for probably 3 more years of great production.
As for the Towers, yes, I was serious about a DFA because if there is one thing about towers is that he is consistantly inconsistant. If he shocks me and pitches well in his last few starts, I might change my tune, but this guy isn't consistant at ALL.
While I would love to insert a guy who hits 40 homeruns and drives in 120+, that type of player realistically isn't out there save maybe through trade.
But there's more way than one to add offence. A guy who's very reliable to hit around .300 with over 110 walks and close to 20 homeruns and 40 doubles isn't anything to sneeze at. Heck you might be able to get him for a more reasonable price as his homepark dampens his numbers (1.007 ops on the road versus .822 at home).
Keep in mind the effect that moving from Oakland to Baltimore had on Tejada's numbers. It helped him find another gear. I'm not saying Giles will hit like Tejada or slug .600 again all of a sudden. But he might be only player the Jays would have that is a good bet to slug over .500.
But there's more way than one to add offence. A guy who's very reliable to hit around .300 with over 110 walks and close to 20 homeruns and 40 doubles isn't anything to sneeze at. Heck you might be able to get him for a more reasonable price as his homepark dampens his numbers (1.007 ops on the road versus .822 at home).
Keep in mind the effect that moving from Oakland to Baltimore had on Tejada's numbers. It helped him find another gear. I'm not saying Giles will hit like Tejada or slug .600 again all of a sudden. But he might be only player the Jays would have that is a good bet to slug over .500.
Almost every team (if not every team) in baseball now has some in house statistical analyst and/or contracts with an independent source (like BP) when making moves. Depressing park effects aren't going to fool enough teams to make a difference on Giles (although on the other side there may be a couple teams that will still sign Vinny Castilla and be surprised when his non-Coors numbers dip).
There's no chance Giles will get under $10 million/year. The issue with him will be how many years he'll get.
There's no chance Giles will get under $10 million/year. The issue with him will be how many years he'll get.
I figured that Giles would get 3 years. Whether he gets 25 or 40 for those 3 years, I have no idea. My guess is that Burnett gets similar money to Giles.
As for the Towers, yes, I was serious about a DFA because if there is one thing about towers is that he is consistantly inconsistant. If he shocks me and pitches well in his last few starts, I might change my tune, but this guy isn't consistant at ALL.
He can be frustrating at times, but he's really turned me into a believer this year. The meltdowns are happening less frequently, and he appears to have matured quite a bit. That immature hotheadedness from 03-04 has more or less disappeared.
He doesn't have dominating stuff, so he's kind of at the mercy of lady luck and his defense. Which means he is going to have bad starts now and again. He never walks anyone, so all he really has to do is keep the ball in the park (and his HR rate has really improved this year).
It also looks like he's "pitching to contact" in an effort to keep his pitch counts low, and he's been getting pretty good results.
He's also being paid a whopping 358K this year plying his trade for the Jays, which is tremendous value. Actually, the Jays front 4 (not including Halladay) have been the best value in the Majors:
IP: 529.2 IP
W-L: 28-29
ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.312
SALARY: 1.3 MM
And three of those guys are going to make close to the minimum in 2006 -- their total cost will be around 3 MM.
Add Halladay back in, mix in a few extra bats, and you have yourself a playoff contender.
Here's an interesting comparison (from the anti-aging dept.):
Giles' (career): .299/.412/.544
Player X (career): .297/.399/.526
Giles: currently 34
Player X: currently 36
Player X's age 35 season: .290/.393/.534
Player X's age 36 season: .290/.379/.507
Educated guesses (without checking player stats)?
Giles' (career): .299/.412/.544
Player X (career): .297/.399/.526
Giles: currently 34
Player X: currently 36
Player X's age 35 season: .290/.393/.534
Player X's age 36 season: .290/.379/.507
Educated guesses (without checking player stats)?