Baltimore and Toronto, two teams struggling as they wind down their 2005 seasons, meet for the last time all year as they battle for third-place in the AL East. Toronto is struggling with the bats, scoring two runs combined in their last two games against the hapless Devil Rays and Seth McClung and Scott Kazmir. Baltimore turned in a good performance against Boston on Friday and promptly lost the next two. It won’t be easy for Toronto as they face three of the tougher pitchers on the Orioles staff, but Toronto also sends out Gustavo Chacin, who is looking to solidify a Rookie of the Year campaign, and Ted Lilly, who looks to have a good few starts after returning from injury and set up his 2006 season well. Dustin McGowan is the scheduled starter Thursday, but with Lilly’s return that could change.

This week's Scout features 2003’s streakiest hitter, two pitchers who really struggle against lefties and a reliever who was hurling in the Independent Leagues in 2003. Mike D. will return next series.

On to the Advance Scout!

General: Lost 2 of 3 in Boston and currently sit at 64-72, 3 games back of Toronto for 3rd place in the AL East…On September 2nd the Orioles managed to become the first team to hold Boston to fewer than seven runs at Fenway Park since August 2nd, a span of 14 games …The four hits Baltimore surrendered, half of which were given up by B.J Ryan in his one inning of work, were the lowest total in Fenway for Boston since July 18, when they lost 3-1 to Scott Kazmir and the Devil Rays…When Baltimore was in Toronto last week the Orioles released the troubled and ineffective Sidney Ponson and voided the last year of his contract because of his behaviour. Expect a prolonged off-season battle as the MLB Players Association has filed a grievance against the decision…Hayden Penn has returned to Double-A Bowie as the Bay Sox might make the playoffs; he will likely be recalled once that is over, either as a spot starter or in a relief role ...James Baldwin fainted on a team plane flying out of Toronto, but he is apparently fine and has been cleared by team doctors to play…Baltimore recalled Walter Young and Bernie Castro from Triple-A on September 1, but so far it looks like Castro will get the opportunity to prove himself as he has already has 10 ABs to Young’s 0…Baltimore also activated Jason Grimsley and Geronimo Gil from the DL to coincide with the roster expansion. Neither figures to get much of an opportunity as Gil will split back-up catching duty with Sal Fasano and Grimsley will be stuck at the back of the bullpen..

* Bruce Chen: The Panamanian Mike Morgan looks like he may finally have found a home in Baltimore….Starts Monday afternoon’s game against Chacin in a battle of 11-8 southpaws ... Not an overpowering pitcher at all and when he can’t hit his spots he will struggle to avoid big innings ...His curve sits in the low-80’s with late break and Chen likes to throw it in the dirt…Has reverse splits, with lefties hitting .355 off him compared to .220 for right-handers…The Jays lineup construction on Monday will reveal a fair amount about their use of statistics and scouting in pre-game preparation. The presence of Cat as opposed to Johnson, sitting Menechino against the lefty and keeping Koskie and Hinske in the lineup would all be good moves…In his last start game against the Jays Gibbons used Hill, Johnson, Rios and Quiroz and sat every lefty but Koskie….We’ll see if Chen’s dazzling performance and unusual performance so far this year have changed Gibbons’s mind…Aside from his dazzling start last time against Toronto where he allowed 2 hits and a walk in 8 innings Chen has made one oter start against Toronto this year where he took the loss, giving up 9 hits and 6 runs in 5 innings…If you knew that Chen would lead the Orioles in ERA and be tied for 15th in the AL in early September, could you please pick my lottery numbers next week?

* Brian Roberts: Probably the third-best everyday 2B defensively, behind Hudson and Mark Ellis ...Hits better from the left than from the right…An aggressive baserunner who needs 3 steals in September to reach a career-high and 30 for the year…He’s smart on the bases as he’s currently stealing at a 79.4% rate and he will also take an extra-base if the defence gives him the opportunity…I’m sure he would love to hit 2 HRs this month and reach 20 on the year…Put up a .262/.333/.382 line in August, very similar to what he did in July …His career OPS is about 40 points higher on the road…Ones of his weak spots is the ball away, whereas he can really the ball middle-in…Struggles against southpaws who keep the ball away especially…Will bunt for a base hit if the third baseman gives him the opportunity.

* Daniel Cabrera: Allowed 2 earned runs in 6 IP in his first and only rehab start at Double-A Bowie…Tall righthander was on the DL due to lower back stiffness…His stuff is quite good, but he has failed to achieve consistency with it and is still a below-average starter…His fastball sits in the mid-90’s and can reach 97, but Cabrera often has trouble locating it to the 1/3rd of the plate where the catcher wants it…He rarely uses his changeup, which is below average…Will surrender a good number of walks, so a key in to be patient against him and wait for a mistake pitch or take the walk…Not a good fielder, probably due to his 6’7” frame…Over the course of a game he will give you plenty of hittable pitches...Went 0-3 in August with a 7.71 ERA before going on the DL...Has had much more success against right-handed batters than left-handed batters this season, with a .929 opponent’s OPS versus lefties and .456 opponent’s OPS versus righties. The Jays should stick every available lefty in there against Cabrera.

* B.J. Ryan: The big southpaw quietly became one of the best relievers in the AL over the past few seasons…His fastball will hit the mid-90’s on good days and it must seem even faster to left-handed batters…Hides the ball well with this deceptive motion and this makes his slider, probably his best pitch, very tough to hit…Ryan credits former Baltimore pitching coach Mark Wiley with helping to turn him from the non-descript lefty reliever he was in the early 2000’s to the good closer he is now…The Louisiana native who also attended university in the state must be at least somewhat preoccupied with Katrina, similar to Aaron Hill…Although lefties are hitting him at nearly the same clip righties are this year, they hit under .100 against Ryan in 2004…His ERA for the year is 2.58, but if you take out his appearances against the Yankees, which are bad because of one dreadful performance in an afternoon game, his ERA drops to 1.90…To continue this little game, if you also remove his appearances against the Twins it drops to 1.50. This is not quite Lance Painter-esque, but the point against the Yankees is worth bearing in mind…Hasn’t allowed a run since August 16th against Oakland…Should become quite a rich man this offseason.

* Melvin Mora: Great range at third base and has turned into one of the best defensive third-basemen in the AL, a notch below Eric Chavez…New manager Sam Perlozzo is a big believer, saying, “Melvin’s a .300 hitter. He really is.”…All of his home-run power is to left and left-centre, but he will hit some doubles to right-centre…The rare power hitter who is able to drop down a bunt for a hit consistently. However, Mora’s dealt with a sore ankle for several weeks this year and a few other ailments and the bunt was eliminated as a weapon for those stretches…Despite his drop in production from the 2003 and 2004 seasons Mora remains an above-average third-baseman…Part of his decrease in power can probably be traced to Mora’s propensity to hit groundballs this year. He has a .084 G/F ratio, which is the second lowest on the Orioles ahead of only Jay Gibbons. I don’t know what Mora’s was for years past, but I sincerely doubt it was that low…Likes the ball in, due to his pull tendencies, but he will chase away, particularly good fastballs.

* Erik Bedard: The second Canadian to face the Jays this month after Pete LaForest. Will likely be joined by Adam Stern and possibly Aaron Guiel…Not quite the left-handed version of Steve Trachsel but he still takes a long time between pitches…A plus fielder he actually has a below-average pickoff move for a lefthander…Fastball sits in the low-90’s and Bedard moves it well back-and-forth to each side of the plate…Likes to get ahead in the count with strike one…Once Bedard is on his heels he’ll slow down even more and start nibbling, which is when it is ideal to knock him out of the game…His curve has begun to regain the big break it had before he had Tommy John surgery, although it’s not all the way there yet. It should become his out pitch eventually…His last start against Toronto was August 14th. The Jays ran up his pitch count early and Bedard only lasted five innings, surrendering three runs…Hasn’t allowed a run since August 16th against Oakland…Has only allowed 8 HRs in nearly 120 innings so far his year. If he can keep the ball in the park consistently Bedard should be able to lower his ERA going forward.

* Eric Byrnes: His flowing hair doesn’t suit an Oriole uniform like it did in Oakland….The former fan favourite has struggled, both in Colorado and in Baltimore, since his trade from the A’s. A California native, Byrnes rarely left his comfort zone as he attended UCLA and then was drafted by Oakland ...He plays with a “never give-up” attitude, both offensively and defensively…Has made several highlight-reel catches this year, including one incredible one where he dove in foul territory near the Oakland bullpen mounds in McAfee Coliseum to catch a ball the announcers had already given up on…However, he’s also prone to defensive blunders, as he sometimes completely misreads balls and takes bad routes to them, allowing balls that should be caught to drop or giving runners extra bases…Still, he’s an above-average defensive left-fielder (at least he was this year, before being dealt) who is pressed if used in centre…His 2003 was one of the streakiest seasons in recent memory, as Byrnes hit .356 in May, .322 in June, .095 in July, .167 in August and then .208 in September….Byrnes gets good plate coverage and can hit balls away quite well, although he’ll struggle if he gets into a phase where he tries to pull that pitch …Try to pitch him inside, particularly with fastballs that tie him up…Has one of the more violent swings in the majors.

* B.J. Surhoff: Forty-one year-old outfielder may be playing in his final MLB season in his 19th year in the majors…Went to play baseball at UNC where his coach was Mike Roberts, Brian’s dad…His school records for hits, runs scored, batting average and steals all stood until Brian Roberts broke them all in 1997…Hit .303 as a member of the 1984 U.S. Olympic team and was named in 1999 as one of the 15 members to the all-time USA baseball team at catcher…Was the first player selected in the 1985 draft…His father Dick played in the NBA in the early 1950’s for the Knicks….His wife Polly was inducted into the Maryland Swimming Hall of Fame in 1995…His brother Rick, older by two years, pitched briefly in the majors in 1985 at the age of 22. He went 9.1 innings and finished with a 6.75 ERA for the Phillies and the Rangers. He was traded from the Phillies to the Rangers in September for a starting pitcher named Dave Stewart. Was traded during the 1986 season from Texas to the Cubs but he never made the majors again…Despite being in the big leagues for 19 years Surhoff has only played for 3 teams, the Brewers (9 years), Braves (2.5 years) and Orioles (7.5)…Was an All-Star in 1999, which was the second-best year of his career behind 1995…The ex-catcher has played every position in the majors save pitcher and centre-field…Is 18th among active players in times-on-base...His production is no longer adequate for a corner outfielder/first-baseman/DH as he currently has a line of .261/.278/.380 this season....Does not have a walk against southpaws in 88 AB’s this season…However, for all of the grief some give him for taking time away from younger players (which is true), Surhoff was still a productive player last year with an OPS+ of 101 and a line of .309/.365/.420…One of the true nice guys in baseball, Surhoff is involved with many charitable causes and organisations, from his involvement with the Maryland Food Bank to being a very active participant of the Orioles Winter Carnival to purchasing tickets to Orioles games for special education classes.

* Tim Byrdak: 31-year old lefty is experiencing shoulder soreness and may not pitch during the series ... Before this season had amassed 32.2 innings in the majors, all with K.C. from 1998-2000 ... After having Tommy John surgery in 2001 Byrdak struggled so badly that in 2002 he was released by the Cleveland organisation partway through the year and he spent 2003 pitching for teams in Joliet, Ill. and Gary, Ind. in the independent leagues ... Once in 2003 he found out he had been placed on the DL by listening to the pre-game show in Joliet ... Earned a ticket back to the minor leagues by impressing Padres scouts at an open tryout with a knuckleball ... However, once he was signed and sent to spring training he lost the grip of his knuckler and had to abandon it…He was sent to Triple-A Portland and then released after 20 games…Signed with Ottawa shortly thereafter and has since pitched for the Orioles organisation…Had a 2.18 ERA in 37.2 innings with 11 saves for Ottawa before being recalled...Has a 4.79 ERA for Baltimore so far this year with 22 K’s and 15 BB’s in 20.2 IP…As of August 23rd his ERA was only 2.89, but since it has gone up by almost 2 runs because of a couple of more outings.

* Luis Matos: Couldn’t have picked a better time for a WebGem as earlier this season he robbed David Ortiz of a homer on Saturday Afternoon Baseball on Fox…The best defensive outfielder on Baltimore his 3.2 defensive Win Shares rank him 15th in th AL…Doesn’t have great power, but will take his share of walks and combined with his defence it makes him a decent centre-fielder…His splits show some interesting numbers, as for his career he hits righties better by 88 points of OPS, but this year he is hitting lefties better by 287 points. In other words, I wouldn’t be afraid to leave Schoeneweis or Chacin face him…His career OPS is about 40 points higher on the road…Has always hit better at Camden Yards than on the road (59 points for his career, 73 for this year)…Has always struggled on turf, hitting 177 points better on grass for his career…Has had 52 at-bats against Toronto this year, the most of any team, and has struggled with a .212/.250/.250 line…Likes the ball low and can often catch him looking at high strikes.

* Rafael Palmeiro: Has a moustache.

* John Maine: Has had success so far in his brief time in the majors with a 2-1 record and a 2.91 ERA…Throws a fastball, slider, curve and change…His fastball can reach the mid-90’s but Maine is comfortable keeping it around 92. It has a sinking action to it and this limits the number of homers Maine allows…Maine is 6’4” and his height seems to prevent him from being anything more than a below-average fielder…Maine had a very strong run through the minors despite not having superb stuff, so many used to compare him to Britt Reames and Denny Stark, two pitchers who had similar success in the low minors before struggling later on. However, while Maine hasn’t had the success at Triple-A he did in the low minors, he is doing alright and this seems to have quieted those who were prepared to write him off completely…At Ottawa this year Maine was 6-11 with a 4.57 ERA. He had 111 K’s and 42 BB’s in 128.1 IP…In 2004 he was leading the Eastern League in wins and strikeouts before being promoted to Ottawa. He started slowly in Ottawa but finished with 10 quality starts in his last 13 outings…Combined in 2004 he went 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA between Bowie and Ottawa...Picked up his first major league win on August 13th against Toronto, going 5 shutout innings wih 3 K’s, while allowing 3 BB’s and only 2 hits...May be in the wrong organisation to get a real chance in the majors, at the Orioles tend to look at velocity more than statistics when evaluating players. However, given the success of Bruce Chen this year maybe that’s changing.

* Walter Young: The big 1B prospect (6’5”, 320 pounds) will wear number 75... Selected in the 31st round of the 1999 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates ... In 2001 finished fifth in the NY-Penn League with a .509 slugging percentage ... Was the South Atlantic League’s player of the month in July, on his way to winning the league’s MVP award in 2002, playing for the Hickory Crawdads... Not a good defensive first baseman (15 errors in 77 games in 2002, 5 in 48 games in 2001, 9 in 41 games in 2000) ... After the 2003 season was claimed on waivers by the Orioles…In 2004 set a Bowie franchise record with 33 homers, besting Calvin Pickering’s old record of 32…Finished 3rd in the Eastern League in extra-base hits and total bases ...Only hit 13 HR in 123 games for Ottawa this year with a .438 slugging percentage. Being such a one-dimensional power, if he doesn’t show noticeably above-average power he’ll never last long in the majors…His swing has holes in it, and he profiles a “mistake hitter”…A clue to his release may be found in a story from a 2002 single-A spring-training game where Young, who had the attention of Littlefield, was on 1B with none out when Ryan Doumit singled to right-centre. Young rounded second and headed for third. It was going to be a close play at third, but Young tried to tiptoe around the third-baseman and was tagged out by Tripper Johnson. Most people thought he would have been safe if he slid, and as Young came back to the dugout apparently manager Dave Clark asked him why he didn’t slide. Young replied, “I’m not breaking my f*cking leg trying to win some spring training game.” He was promptly pulled from the game and apparently fell out of favour with the front office.