The Jays are shutout by the Devil Rays and slip to two games below .500.
On the bright side David Bush was excellent, going 7 innings, scattering just six hits and striking out 5. Downs, Towers and Bush have all been very good recently, but there is still the likelihood that J.P will be looking at a free agent starter this winter.
There has been a lot of talk about Jarrod Washburn being a Jays target and rumour has it the SS Loogy (a hated figure with some Angels fans I was surprised to learn) has been actively recruiting his former teammate.
Washburn is certainly available. The Angels have shown no interest in talking to his agent (Scott Boras) about a new contract, although Washburn has expressed an interest in staying with the team. With Ervin Santana, Chris Bootcheck and Joe Saunders all looking to be ready to step in to the rotation, Washburn might be surplus to requirements in Anaheim.
He's having a great year this year, although his teammates are doing a bit of a Clemens on him in terms of run support. BPro has him with a VORP of 47.9 - good for 4th in the AL. DIPS proponents would caution that he is over-achieving, as the table below shows his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA, although Washburn seems to be one of those pitchers able consistently out perform what DIPS expects for him.
Year Ag Tm W L G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA dERA G/F 2002 27 ANA 18 6 32 32 206.0 183 75 72 19 59 139 3.15 4.10 0.60 2003 28 ANA 10 15 32 32 207.3 205 106 102 34 54 118 4.43 5.24 0.68 2004 29 ANA 11 8 25 25 149.3 159 81 77 20 40 86 4.64 4.70 0.96 2005 30 ANA 7 8 26 26 164.1 172 59 58 17 49 89 3.18 4.36*0.98* This is the FIP number from THT, not dERA.
Washburn's had injury issues in the recent past, but has still been able to consistently rack up a lot of innings. He missed six weeks in 2004 with strained cartilege in his rib-cage and missed the start of the 2003 season with a shoulder sprain. In his earlier years Washburn threw his heater 95% of the time, over the past couple of years he has started mixing in his slower stuff a lot more. The result is noticeable in the statistics above, his strikeout percentage has dropped, but his groundball to flyball ratio has improved. Where once he was a flyball pitcher now he gets a lot more groundouts. Washburn's makeup is like a number of pitchers currently on the Jays, good control, but in now way over powering. He also tends to give away more home runs than you'd perhaps like for a pitcher coming into the RC. He does seem to have the tendency, as Wilner has noted of Josh Towers, of being able to be very effective against poor offences but of coming apart against the best hitting teams. Character-wise Washburn's reputation is as a very competitive guy of the stoic, gritty, dirtbag type that JP seems to like. You can see him fitting in with Doc, Sparky and Hillenbrand and co.
What he would command on the open market this winter? I'm going to guess that it would need 6-8 million a year and at least a three year deal to bring him on board.
My impression of Washburn has been of a solid starter, but, not one I'm ever going to get particularly excited about. This is not A.J Burnett, let's be honest. He has decent stuff, not anything remarkable for a starter, he takes a good approach to hitters and seems to use all his pitches well. He can still get his heater in there at over 90mph so, although he features his breaking stuff more, we're hardly looking at a soft-tossing lefty here. A more consistent Ted Lilly perhaps ?
Of the available free agents he might well be the best fit for the Jays. If, as expected Burnett gets huge contract offers from the usual suspects then beyond Washburn, the Jay's front office will be looking at a market in which the leading lights are Jeff Weaver, Kevin Millwood, Tony Armas and (shudder) Esteban Loiaza. Washburn wouldn't be such a bad pickup, but I'd like to see the Jays giving Kevin Millwood serious consideration too.
Another pitcher available this winter who we have not discussed much on the Box is Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Matsuzaka is one of, possibly the, best starting pitcher in Japan. He apparently throws a fastball that reaches 96mph and the intriguing gyroball, a new kind of breaking ball that uses 'double spin mechanics' and in Will Carrol's words "...comes at the hitter looking like a hanging curve and then takes a hard, flat turn away from a right-handed batter." He is just 24, and has an incredible amount of experience, and success, for a pitcher his age, he has been pitching in the Japanese Major Leagues since 1999, has a 2:1 K/BB ratio and a career ERA of 3.24. He has also already appeared on 2 Japanese Olympic teams, in the last games he shut out the Cubans for 8 1/3 innings, and in 2004 he pitched a complete game 5 hitter against the touring MLB all-stars.
Matsuzaka will not be a free agent this winter, he needs ten years playing time in Japan for that. He will however be 'posted'. This is the process that Ichiro, for instance, went through. Teams will have to bid, sealed bids I believe, for the negotiating rights with Matsuzaka. This is like a transfer fee that you see in Soccer, and makes Matsuzaka an expensive proposition. In Ichiro's case the Mariners had to pony up $11 million just to get to talk, the $15 million salary Ichiro ended up accepting was on top of that.
Talent-wise you would have to figure that Matsuzaka would easily be one of the premier free agent starters in this class, probably just behind Burnett. There are some health concerns however, rumours from Japan suggest he has shoulder problems, and he has thrown a lot for a young guy - nearly a third of his starts have been complete games. Throw in what can be expected to be a large financial commitment, add the health concerns and I can't see the Jays having much interest in Matsuzaka - I can't wait to see that gyroball though.
