And we have been talking obsessively about how well the Blue Jays hit with runners on base, haven't we?
I'm looking at the handouts I gathered in the pressbox yesterday. The Blue Jays, going into yesterday's game ranked fourth in the American League in Runs Scored. That's not bad - so how do they do it? What does this offense do well?
Hitting for Average? - 9th
Home Runs? - 10th
Stealing Bases? - 10th
Doubles? - 5th
Triples? - 2nd
Walks? - 6th
Slugging? - 9th
On-Base Pct? - 3rd
They're quite good at getting people on base. They're not so good at hitting for average and hitting for power. Still, it doesn't seem to add up. Maybe they're just really good at cashing in those additional baserunners... Further analysis is probably called for.
Anyway, I thought I'd pass along how the individual Jays have done hitting with men in scoring position. We could break this down further, into with two outs and with less than two out, but it's absolutely NOT worth the time and trouble. At least not on an individual basis. When we start talking about performance over 40 or 50 at bats, the sample sizes are too damn small. These samples are really too small as well, but here we go:
TOTAL AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SP-RBI MISP MOB BB IBB SO SH SF GIDP %driven in Johnson 84 26 3 3 3 42 34 116 161 6 1 14 1 0 5 .261 Wells 114 31 6 1 7 55 41 157 226 15 2 19 0 7 4 .243 Catalanotto 68 24 3 2 2 35 29 102 144 6 0 8 0 5 4 .243 Adams 95 28 8 2 2 46 40 140 201 14 1 14 3 6 0 .229 Hillenbrand 129 37 8 0 6 54 44 165 236 8 2 16 0 3 9 .229 Hill 74 22 7 2 2 31 24 96 138 8 0 9 1 1 2 .225 Zaun 106 29 4 0 4 45 37 152 215 13 1 21 0 5 3 .209 TEAM 1163 311 60 12 39 478 396 1604 2295 128 15 208 10 43 47 .208 Hinske 91 21 7 0 5 40 30 133 197 11 4 27 0 4 3 .203 Rios 118 34 5 2 3 45 40 158 226 11 1 24 0 4 4 .199 Hudson 124 31 6 0 4 45 39 159 226 9 1 17 0 6 2 .199 Koskie 59 13 3 0 1 16 15 81 123 15 2 16 0 0 3 .130There are four columns that require an explanation: 1) SP-RBI are runners in Scoring Position driven home; 2) MISP are Men In Scoring Position; 3) MOB are Men On Base; 4) % driven in is my own contribution - its the percent of runners on base driven in. I derived it by simply dividing the RBI by the Men on Base. I probably should have subtracted the Home Runs, because that's driving in someone who was never on base... but what the hell. I don't want to punish someone for hitting a home run.
I left out batting average because... well, I just wasn't sure it was going to fit. You can work it out easily enough if you're curious. The short version: Catalanotto, Johnson, and Adams have raised their averages; Wells, Hillenbrand, Hill, and Zaun have stayed about the same; Hinske, Hudson, and Koskie have all lost about 20 points.
But what really, really interested me when I gave these numbers an Intense Scrute (the product of intense scutiny) were the opportunities. Shea Hillenbrand has had the most at bats with runners in scoring position. Well, that's as it should be - he's hit in the middle of the order all year long. He's been the cleanup hitter for 90 of the 129 games this data covers, far more than any other Blue Jay.
But the man with with the second most ABs with runners in scoring position is Orlando Hudson? Who has only started 110 games,and hit 8th or 9th for 59 of them? And Hudson is followed, in third place, by Alex Rios, who has started 102 games, and batted 6th or lower in 70 of them.
Then, and only then, do we come to the team's RBI leader, Vernon Wells. Who has been the # 3 hitter for 91 of his 123 starts.
This surprised me quite a bit.
It doesn't hurt, obviously, that Rios and Hudson generally follow Gregg Zaun in the order - Zaun leads the team in On-Base percentage, just ahead of Catalanotto (and Menechino).
But it still seems very weird to me that Wells, who generally hits right behind Catalanotto, is not getting as many opportunities with runners in scoring position. Suggestions?
