Well, that expression is deservedly attached to Dave Bush today, who was under a whole lot of pressure going into last night’s game against the Yankees – some of it internal, and a whole lot external. Not only did the team need someone to stop the bleeding of a five-game losing streak and a brutal loss on Tuesday, but Bush himself needed to show his manager and GM that he belongs in the major-league rotation after getting shelled in two short outings in Detroit and getting demoted to Syracuse halfway through the year.
That he accomplished. Bush had one of the best starts of his career, a five-hit shutout over six innings with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts, including whiffing the side in the 4th after giving up a leadoff double to inevitable MVP Alex Rodriguez. His stuff was electric at times, and he was challenging some of the best hitters in the game with it. Bush had two things going tonight that he’s been missing before: tremendous location and a few extra mph on the heater, which he blew past a few surprised Yankee batters.
Bush did get help, particularly from his defence (a big shout-out to Corey Koskie), and he did require 100 pitches to get through 6 innings. But he also battled the umpire at times, especially early in the game. It’s interesting: Bush, like a lot of young command pitchers, needs the called strike on the outside corner to survive. And like a lot of young command pitchers, he’s not going to get that call till he shows he deserves it. Last night, Bush wasn’t getting a lot of those close calls early. Then he struck out a few million-dollar Yankees swinging, and suddenly the umpire was giving him a little more leeway.
Young pitchers often ask how they can get the calls older pitchers get – it’s like the old saw about job interviews: how can I get experience if no one will hire me? The answer is that once you show you can get batters out on your own, the umpires will be more inclined to help you out in future. Once Bush showed off the heat and the moxie, the ump cut him some slack. Hopefully, it’s an experience he can build on going forward.
That was quite the interesting linescore: 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0. I love the symmetrical feel to it, and I’d be inclined to guess that in the 28 years and more than 4,400 games in their franchise history, the Blue Jays have never posted a linescore like that. It’s unusual enough to score 9 runs in one inning on any occasion, and to do it while posting 4 goose eggs on either side is, well, unique. Jayson Stark is probably scurrying through Retrosheet as we speak to see if this pattern has ever occurred before.
What a bizarre outing for Mike Mussina. He allowed a one-out double to Frank Catalanotto in the first, which was swiftly erased on a soft-line-drive double play. Then he set down 10 Jays in a row, showing off a knee-buckling breaking ball and great pitch selection, keeping the Toronto batters off-balance. I was thinking that Mussina had successfully made the transition from power pitcher to breaking-ball master late in his career, and then the roof fell in. He lost the strike zone. He couldn’t finish off hitters. He nicked Eric Hinske with the bases loaded, then walked the #9 hitter on a full-count outside fastball. Three batters later (double-single-homer), he was gone and probably still wondering what the heck happened out there.
The Blue Jays needed this win -- not for contention purposes, because I think even they recognize that that ship has all but sailed at this point – but for their own confidence going forward. They’ve played the tough teams tough this year, virtually owning the Red Sox and playing other contenders very well. But the Yankees had daunted them all season, and the blown game on Tuesday night was a heartbreaker and potential confidence shaker. The Jays needed a solid start and a breakout night from the bats; they happened to get them both at the same time, and this team is probably feeling a lot better about itself today as a result.
And now, on to the main course.
Musical Chairs
The question has been hanging over this team from the day Corey Koskie fractured his thumb and Aaron Hill tore up the American League upon his promotion: what are the Blue Jays going to do with their infield? Counting DH, the Jays have six infielders (Shea Hillenbrand, Eric Hinske, Orlando Hudson, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Corey Koskie) and a maximum of five places to play them. Koskie’s injury allowed Hill to get his feet wet and introduce himself to the show; his first slump coincided nicely with Koskie’s return, and since then, John Gibbons has done a masterful job of juggling these six players as the Jays toyed with contention.
But the juggling can’t go on forever. Young players need to play and veterans get restless on the bench. The Jays expect to be full-blown contenders in 2006, and they can’t do that without a degree of certainty at these key positions. These six players present an eclectic mix of skills, age and productivity, a wide range of defensive skills, and an equally wide range of salaries. It’s going to take some very creative work this off-season to cull this herd, confirm players’ roles, and maximize both the talent and the payroll these players represent.
Many people already predict that this off-season’s shopping and trading will make or break JP Ricciardi’s tenure as general manager, and this is probably correct. But just as key to his legacy, as well as to the franchise’s next five years, is how this crowded infield gets sorted out before spring training 2006.
Here’s a look at the six players, what they bring to the table, what they’ve done this year and what they can be expected to do in future.
Shea Hillenbrand has posted two seasons where he received more than 500 ABs, and he currently stands at 470 AB so far this year. Barring an injury, he’ll make it three seasons in 2005. Here are his batting lines in those three seasons:
Year BA OBP SLG 2002 .293 .330 .459 2004 .310 .348 .464 2005 .294 .351 .465This, folks, is what you call an established level of production. Hillenbrand is going to hit about .300, add another 40-45 points in OBP, and slug right around .460 every season while giving you competent defensive work at the infield corners. That’s a valuable asset to have around — it’s an asset, however, that’s worth about $5 million a season in the American League. Right now, it’s not entirely clear whether Hillenbrand will get more than that to return to the Blue Jays next year, as JP Ricciardi very clearly wants him to do.
Hillenbrand is also not, by any stretch of the imagination, a cleanup hitter in this league, yet the Jays’ lack of depth and firepower has miscast him in that role much of the year. Hillenbrand is a fine #6 hitter, preferably #7, playing three-quarters or four-fifths of a season – if everything breaks right for the Jays next season, that’s just what he’ll be doing. If Hillenbrand is anywhere near the cleanup position on Opening Day ‘06, however, you’ll know the off-season went very poorly indeed for the Blue Jays.
Russ Adams has had a very solid full-season debut with the bat, ranking 7th among AL shortstops in offensive win shares, wedged between bigger names like Edgar Renteria and Bobby Crosby. It’s reasonable to think he’ll add some more power next year, but I firmly expect him to maintain a BA/OBP right around where it is now, in the neighbourhood of .275/.350. Why? Check it out:
Year Team BA OBP 2003 Dunedin .279 .388 2003 New Haven .277 .349 2004 Syracuse .288 .351 2005 Toronto .274 .346Adams still loses about 50 BA points against lefties, but his batting eye is actually stronger (in limited at-bats) and he draws more walks. He’ll never be a major threat against southpaws, but his days of being platooned are over. His defence is still raw, but it’s not really a glaring problem in that infield, and there’s every reason to think he can and will improve with the glove. He’s also going to have a couple of .380 OBP seasons in the next several years – watch for them.
Corey Koskie has been — there’s no other way to say it — a major disappointment this year. After a very slow start, he was starting to find his batting stroke again when he suffered his thumb injury in June, and his progress since returning has been agonizingly slow (.185 BA in August). His injury was unfortunate, but it wasn’t a shock, either, as his games-played record shows:
Year Age GP 2001 28 153 2002 29 140 2003 30 131 2004 31 118 2005 32 99And that current year’s total assumes that he’ll play every game between now and Closing Day. Simply put, Koskie is injury-prone and can’t be expected to give you more than 120 games anymore. What’s worse, his bat has looked really slow much of the season: it’s long, loopy and doesn’t seem capable anymore of catching up with the best fastballs.
Koskie can still flash the leather at third – his fearless catch of Gary Sheffield’s pop fly in the New York stands was sensational and really bailed out Dave Bush at a key moment – and his batting eye is still sharp. But it’s still hard not to conclude that the Jays have themselves a less expensive (but still pricey) version of Jim Thome Lite on their hands: an old-guy’s-skills player who’s gotten older faster than expected. Right now, .250/.340 with 15 or so home runs in about 425 at-bats is pretty much all the Jays should count on for the next two seasons. I need hardly tell you that that’s pretty much all Eric Hinske is delivering these days, at a lower cost.
Aaron Hill and the Blue Jays were both the recipients of an unusually lucky break this season. If Koskie hasn’t been injured, it’s doubtful Hill would have been promoted, unless the team chose to cut bait on Hinske in mid-season. (The Jays similarly benefited from Roy Halladay’s injury, in that they got to see Dustin McGowan sooner than they might have otherwise expected. That’s a pretty thin silver lining, though, considering the cloud.) Hill arrived in the Show as hot as a live grenade, stayed hot for a while, froze over, and is now making his way back to simply solid play. Observe these monthly OPS totals:
Month AB OPS May 41 1020 June 90 867 July 91 574 August 40 766It’s difficult to predict Hill’s future development from his minor-league record, because his stay in the bush leagues was so short: just 238 games over the equivalent of two full seasons. He was batting .300 in 156 AB when he left Syracuse, and had he maintained his pace there for a 500-AB season, he would’ve finished with 35 doubles and 15 home runs. Interestingly, if you extrapolate his major-league season thus far over 500 AB as well, you’d get 36 doubles and 6 homers.
Rogers Center has always been a doubles haven, so it seems realistic to expect Hill to punch out 35-40 two-baggers every season while maintaining a .300 average. He drew one walk every eight at-bats in his minor-league career and he’s currently sitting at a 1/10 ratio, so an OBP of at least .350 going forward seems to be a reasonable expectation, too.
The question is how much home-run power will develop. Hill is not especially tall (5’11’) and has never belted more than 15 homers at any level, college or pro. The two players most often compared with Hill’s potential upside are Jeff Kent and Paul Molitor: Kent didn’t hit more than 21 homers till he turned 29, and Molitor only ever averaged 14 homers a season. It would be reasonable to think that Hill is capable of around 15 home runs a season, but there might be a few 10-homer seasons between now and then. If he continues to rap out the doubles, though, the home runs may not be far away; he’s only 23.
Eric Hinske is making one last grasp at continuing his career in a Blue Jays uniform. He entered last night’s game at .354/.429/.521 for the month of August, marking his best month since June of his rookie year in 2002, and that, as I hardly need tell you, was many months ago. Has Hinske finally figured something out? Probably not. His history of sustained mediocrity with the bat is too lengthy to support any other reasonable notion but that this is just a nice hot streak. What’s really interesting is to compare Hinske’s current numbers to his total career stats:
Hinske 2005 .255/.337/.425 Hinske Career .257/.336/.429That is not a misprint. That, in fact, is a fingerprint: two virtually identical lines that perfectly capture what Eric Hinske can produce at the plate, which is to say, not much. That total places him 94th in the American League in OPS, and that’s what the Blue Jays should expect from him for the balance of the two years and $9.9 million left on his contract. Whether Hinske produces that line for Toronto or for another team is entirely up to the Blue Jays at this point.
What happened to Hinske? Nothing. This is the ballplayer he is. The real question is, what happened to the Blue Jays’ faith in him? And the answer is that two great months in 2002, April (.318/.398/.471) and June (.338/.442/.675) turned out to be huge outliers in a career that would much more closely resemble his July (.245/.324/.415) and September (.263/.327/.455) of that season. Basically, the Jays read the results inside out and gave Hinske a deal commensurate with a level of production that, it turned out, he simply wasn’t capable of sustaining.
Orlando Hudson appears to be a shoo-in for the Gold Glove at second base this year, at least if you listen exclusively to Blue Jays personnel and commentators. Gold Glove voting is notoriously suspect, however, and it’s quite possible that a Tad Iguchi or Brian Roberts could benefit from a contending team and a hot start with the bat, respectively, and waltz away with the award. I do think Hudson is the leading candidate for the honour, but don’t be too disappointed if he fails to get it – the voters play by their own rules.
While Hudson’s defensive prowess is unquestioned, it also seems safe to say that his bat is pretty much a known quantity as well. Hudson has now played three full seasons in the majors. Here’s what he’s done:
Year Age BA/OBP/SLG 2003 25 .268/.328/.395 2004 26 .270/.341/.438 2005 27 .275/.324/.419 Career -- .271/.330/.420Like Eric Hinske, Hudson is having a season almost directly in line with his career average. Since this is his age-27 season, the absence of a breakout is further evidence that offensively, WYSIWYG. Moreover, Hudson has actually taken a step back this year: his BB/PA has dropped from 0.93 in 2004 to 0.66 this year, while his slugging percentage is off 19 points, due mostly to a dropoff in doubles.
All of which is to say, the Blue Jays know exactly what they have in Orlando Hudson – tremendous glove, decent stick – and they know exactly how much they’ll have to pay for it over the next couple of years. That kind of certainty is extremely valuable when building a contender – and is also extremely valuable if and when someone comes calling with a trade offer for that player, as you can rest assured, someone will do this off-season.
So, where do the Jays go from here? For five positions (third base, shortstop, second base, first base and DH), they have six players:
• Two exciting rookies on the left side of the infield with great potential, each of whom is capable of a .350 OBP, 30+ doubles and 10 homers a year to go with steadily improving infield defence -- together, costing only $660,000.
• A probable Gold-Glove winner at second base whose infectious enthusiasm make him a clubhouse sparkplug and fan favourite, and whose salary is well within cost-effective bounds for the next few years.
• A steady veteran corner infielder with an established production level of better-than-average and a competitive edge that his General Manager prizes for the clubhouse, sure to command at least $5M next year and perhaps more.
• Two veteran corner infielders with big contracts and fading bats, unlikely to fetch very much on the trade market, on a team can afford to carry only one of them as contention nears.
There is no competition likely to arrive from the minors, unless John-Ford Griffin or John Hattig makes the club next year as a bat off the bench. The Blue Jays might elect to keep all six players and rotate them through five positions, but the clear necessity of giving Hill, Adams and Hudson 500-600 AB each means that Koskie, Hinske and Hillenbrand would need to squeeze $15 million into two positions of mediocrity. With the Blue Jays in dire need of offence next season, that won’t do.
Something’s gotta give. The question is: what? And who? I’ll leave that to you, Bauxites, to answer for yourselves. But here are my four theses that I think will frame the reality of the Blue Jays’ infield going forward:
1. Neither Adams nor Hill will be dealt. They are too productive and too young for this team to let go. Even with an enriched payroll, the Blue Jays know that the key to contention is to get multi-million-dollar production out of league-minimum players at as many positions as possible. In a division where the Yankees pay the left side of their infield 66 times as much as the Jays pay Hill and Adams, that’s exactly the competitive advantage Toronto needs. These two kids are JP Ricciardi’s only first-round draft choice position players; they’re not going anywhere.
2. JP will not shop Orlando Hudson this winter. From all indications, Ricciardi values immensely everything that Hudson brings to the team, and he knows that he has quite possibly the best defensive player at any position playing second base for his club. There is, however, a distinct possibility that Ricciardi will receive a trade offer he can’t refuse this off-season -- a deal that could bring a co-ace to the rotation or a tremendous cleanup hitter to the lineup. Hudson is valuable, but the Jays might simply need to make a move. It was heartbreaking to lose Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff too, but that 1990 deal made the Jays’ two World Series championships possible. If JP receives no offers good enough, Hudson will stay put and sign a medium-term deal with the Blue Jays this winter.
3. Shea Hillenbrand will return, probably for two years at $12M (or $1M per season more than he’s worth), and will become a jack-of-all-trades: some first base, some third base, some DH. If the Jays have upgraded the offence properly, he will get only about 450 AB a season going forward and will sit against tough righties. Hillenbrand is exactly the kind of guy you want for a contending ballclub – batting 6th or 7th, or coming off the bench.
4. One or both of Corey Koskie and Eric Hinske will not be back next year. The Blue Jays must now regret signing Koskie to some extent. His trade value is minimal and his contract, more expensive than Hinske’s, is too much to eat. His glove at third base is still valuable, and the Jays may simply have to hope for a healthy bounce-back season. Hinske is cheaper, less valuable defensively, and less likely to rediscover his stroke. The tea leaves aren’t that difficult to read.
