Mike Wilner: Gustavo Chacin has just won Rookie of the Month. Yeah, that sounds about right.
Jays win, 5-1. All hail Speier! 13 pitches for six batters.
Jays win, 5-1. All hail Speier! 13 pitches for six batters.
Who have all the Rookie of the Months Been? I know Gus has won it twice. Did Hill get one?
I was glad to see the jays win and hill get a couple of hits, but...
It appears the deadline promises of kearns and zito turn into the offseason promises of whomever might help the team contend, next year or whenever. Very disappointing, and what is discouraging is that they jays went after pitching, when they don't really have a guy who can put balls in the seats, and 7-8 young pitching prospects in AA/AAA/majors. Dunn/Kearns would have made much more sense.
The good news is that hinske was out of the lineup again (did anyone notice that adams hits for better average, walks at a higher clip, and hits for more power !); but he is replaced by the guy with the worst OPS on the team outside of huckaby. Is it john gibbon's way of saying that things could be much worse without hinske ?
Looking at stats it seems koskie has come down to hinske's level, 733 OPS is also disappointing.
Lastly, did anyone ever notice the thin bat rios uses... maybe he would hit for more power with a thicker barrel bat (soriano)
It appears the deadline promises of kearns and zito turn into the offseason promises of whomever might help the team contend, next year or whenever. Very disappointing, and what is discouraging is that they jays went after pitching, when they don't really have a guy who can put balls in the seats, and 7-8 young pitching prospects in AA/AAA/majors. Dunn/Kearns would have made much more sense.
The good news is that hinske was out of the lineup again (did anyone notice that adams hits for better average, walks at a higher clip, and hits for more power !); but he is replaced by the guy with the worst OPS on the team outside of huckaby. Is it john gibbon's way of saying that things could be much worse without hinske ?
Looking at stats it seems koskie has come down to hinske's level, 733 OPS is also disappointing.
Lastly, did anyone ever notice the thin bat rios uses... maybe he would hit for more power with a thicker barrel bat (soriano)
Caramon, from mlb.com:
Rookies of the month this year in the AL:
April - Gustavo Chacin (TOR),
May - Damon Hollins (TB),
June - Joe Blanton (OAK).
Lastly, did anyone ever notice the thin bat rios uses... maybe he would hit for more power with a thicker barrel bat
While a bigger bat might work for Rios, a lighter bat allows a hitter to generate greater bat speed, which usually gives him more power. A lot of batters like to use very light bats with very thin handles for exactly that reason.
Why I make a point of attending every year on Dog Day:
O Canada
Our home and woof native land
True patriot bark love woof
In bark all thy woof sons yip command arooo
With bark glowing woof bark hearts
We woof see bark thee woof rise
The true bark north woof strong bark woof and yip free woof arooooo!
(the rest is drowned out by howling)
I was not disappointed.
O Canada
Our home and woof native land
True patriot bark love woof
In bark all thy woof sons yip command arooo
With bark glowing woof bark hearts
We woof see bark thee woof rise
The true bark north woof strong bark woof and yip free woof arooooo!
(the rest is drowned out by howling)
I was not disappointed.
I wonder if his parents put any thought into the fact that his name would be: "Just inSpeier"?
Speier has been incredible. He had a shaky beginning of the season but just these past few weeks he's been untouchable. I'd like to see Speier move into a Frasor/Chulk role, i.e. emergency relief in games with a tight lead, mid-late innings. Perhpas it's time for Frasor to take a step back into some lower leverage situations; they've been running Frasor out there a lot this season and he's probably wearing down.
The best thing about Chacin today is that he never lost focus after seemingly two or three potential DPs didn't happen. He just went after the next guy, completely unrattled. I could see a Josh Towers serving up a 3-run homer after something like that. Towers seems to unravel once things don't initially go his way.
The best thing about Chacin today is that he never lost focus after seemingly two or three potential DPs didn't happen. He just went after the next guy, completely unrattled. I could see a Josh Towers serving up a 3-run homer after something like that. Towers seems to unravel once things don't initially go his way.
I hear you on that Talent. After that botched Potential DP by Hillenbrand where he got nothing in the 2nd Inning Chacin showed a ton of poise just to recover from that.
It appears the deadline promises of kearns and zito turn into the offseason promises of whomever might help the team contend, next year or whenever. Very disappointing, and what is discouraging is that they jays went after pitching, when they don't really have a guy who can put balls in the seats, and 7-8 young pitching prospects in AA/AAA/majors. Dunn/Kearns would have made much more sense.
What we know of is that the Jays went after pitching. It doesn't mean JP didn't pursue Dunn or an offensive fixture. I would imagine JP went and explored every possible solution, so to criticize him from an ignorant standpoint is unfair. I believe he was quoted to have done everything possible in the best interest of the club, and that if anything were to happen, it would be the other team clicking with them. It takes two to tango, and if there wasn't a reasonable offer out there that there wasn't a reaosnable offer out there. Disappointing, yes, but there isn't anyone to blame. And there weren't any promises whatsoever. Nobody promised anybody. In fact, quite a few bauxites expected very little to occur anyways ever since a few weeks ago.
Speier's stuff recently is sick the way it moves, and he always seems to know where it's going to go.
On that play, the guy behind us shouted "Nice work Hinske, you bum!"
To which we responded "Yeah, way to sit on the bench, Hinske! Way to not play on Sunday! What's the matter with you there in the dugout?"
Through the rest of the game, on random plays by members of either team, we praised or razzed Hinske until the heckler finally moved to another section.
To which we responded "Yeah, way to sit on the bench, Hinske! Way to not play on Sunday! What's the matter with you there in the dugout?"
Through the rest of the game, on random plays by members of either team, we praised or razzed Hinske until the heckler finally moved to another section.
Nobody promised anybody. In fact, quite a few bauxites expected very little to occur anyways ever since a few weeks ago.
When the extra roster money was given, jp suggested that the money would be spent at the trade deadline to obtain a pricy player(s). It was speculated by most papers/ken rosenthal/etc. that the jays would go after kearns and zito. So you are right, sort of. No one can promise deals, but it was strongly suggested something will get done.
And I don't think it's anyones fault, too many teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot, and no one is going to give up a core player in that situtation. However, if the rumours of a lilly for ryan howard were true, I would have done that deal... and give up pitching to obtain kearns as well (I think the trade was bush for kearns).
When the extra roster money was given, jp suggested that the money would be spent at the trade deadline to obtain a pricy player(s). It was speculated by most papers/ken rosenthal/etc. that the jays would go after kearns and zito. So you are right, sort of. No one can promise deals, but it was strongly suggested something will get done.
And I don't think it's anyones fault, too many teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot, and no one is going to give up a core player in that situtation. However, if the rumours of a lilly for ryan howard were true, I would have done that deal... and give up pitching to obtain kearns as well (I think the trade was bush for kearns).
Gonna be another long, long, plane ride for Anaheim again. they've lost 5 of their last 6 with 3 blown games, and 3 in extra innings.
That's one tired ballclub.
That's one tired ballclub.
I think everyone's forgetting that the Jays did make a big trade, giving away a shortstop hitting .300 to their bitter divisional rivals of the 1980s. Sure, it's not big in isolation, but adjusted for this trading deadline era, it's huge!
However, if the rumours of a lilly for ryan howard were true, I would have done that deal...
And what if it fell apart because of Lilly's injury? Really, you can't criticize these "unmade deals" as something Toronto has done wrong unless you know the internal specifics, and none of us know the specifics.
And what if it fell apart because of Lilly's injury? Really, you can't criticize these "unmade deals" as something Toronto has done wrong unless you know the internal specifics, and none of us know the specifics.
Gonna be another long, long, plane ride for Anaheim again. they've lost 5 of their last 6 with 3 blown games, and 3 in extra innings.
Tell me about it... I have Tom Gordon and K-Rod on my fantasy team -- I was going to win the week by a mile until last night, and now it's really close. Bah.
Tell me about it... I have Tom Gordon and K-Rod on my fantasy team -- I was going to win the week by a mile until last night, and now it's really close. Bah.
When the extra roster money was given, jp suggested that the money would be spent at the trade deadline to obtain a pricy player(s).
My recollection of it was that JP actually strongly suggested he was going to save it for next year and the year after, though he may indeed have said this was a possibility.
I too was disappointed that the Jays didn't make an aggressive move, but look at what happened around baseball - *nobody* made a strong move this summer. With almost 20 teams still in strong playoff contention, and almost no one home and dry, every GM in both leagues is playing their cards very tight.
I'm starting to slowly accept that "aggressive" is just not the J.P. Ricciardi style, not in dealing with his major league roster. He is very aggressive in dealing with his best young prospects, but is a very "safety-first" GM in dealing with his big leaguers.
My mistake. There aren't "nearly 20" teams in strong playoff contention. There are 23 teams currently within seven games of a playoff spot with nearly 60 games remaining in the season.
To reinforce that, and write yet another comment (heh), look at what pretty moderate players were costing at the trade deadline.
Randy Winn cost the Giants two young players, either of whom might be better than Randy Winn is right now.
Ron Villone cost the Marlins a 21-year-old starter who throws in the mid-90s, as well as a C relief prospect.
Joe Randa cost the Padres two grade B or better pitching prospects.
The Tigers got a good deal for Farnsworth, too.
The only inexpensive veterans so far have been Lawton, who is earning a big salary, and Cruz, who was outright stolen when you consider that the D-Backs sent cash and the two prospects they got have been underperforming.
The market was so narrow, and values so inflated that I'd have been tempted to turn seller and try to get a high price for a veteran hitter.
Randy Winn cost the Giants two young players, either of whom might be better than Randy Winn is right now.
Ron Villone cost the Marlins a 21-year-old starter who throws in the mid-90s, as well as a C relief prospect.
Joe Randa cost the Padres two grade B or better pitching prospects.
The Tigers got a good deal for Farnsworth, too.
The only inexpensive veterans so far have been Lawton, who is earning a big salary, and Cruz, who was outright stolen when you consider that the D-Backs sent cash and the two prospects they got have been underperforming.
The market was so narrow, and values so inflated that I'd have been tempted to turn seller and try to get a high price for a veteran hitter.
If you're still making a sign for Tuesday, how about:
"TOWERS SEARS CHICAGO"?
"TOWERS SEARS CHICAGO"?
I agree with Craig on this. The Values are so inflated and especially with the Rumors regarding the Angels and Hillenbrand... Who have boat loads of great prospects. Might as well Turn into a seller with the massive amount you could be paid, when realistically we don't have too much of a chance.
That was a quiet deadline day.
Like Craig, I would have been interested in selling, and I would have been interested in prospects at the high A or double A level, who might need a year or so before being ready. It is understandable why the team has chosen not to do this in light of the standings.
Like Craig, I would have been interested in selling, and I would have been interested in prospects at the high A or double A level, who might need a year or so before being ready. It is understandable why the team has chosen not to do this in light of the standings.
Its just in this Market, you probably could have squeezed an Anahiem who has Oakland breathing down their neck, who really needs a piece to start contending again.
Watching through the last 2 hours of they game they kept flashing to JP who was just sitting there doing nothing.
Not on the phone, nothing.
Heck even if you got a solid AAA prospect who could conceivably come in and hit better than Hillenbrand within 2 years, you'd have won the deal outright.
And I don't think I'm overestimating the Value of a Hillenbrand because there was not a lot of quality to go around.
Watching through the last 2 hours of they game they kept flashing to JP who was just sitting there doing nothing.
Not on the phone, nothing.
Heck even if you got a solid AAA prospect who could conceivably come in and hit better than Hillenbrand within 2 years, you'd have won the deal outright.
And I don't think I'm overestimating the Value of a Hillenbrand because there was not a lot of quality to go around.
Rios, Adams, Hill, Quiroz, Frasor, Chulk, League, McGowan, Chacin, Bush are quite likely to all be regulars in 2006, all who will have less than 2 years big-league experience.
I don't think the Blue Jays want to get rid of any useful veterans in their prime and who don't have bad contracts--they need guys like this to mix-in with the young players. I don't think you would want your big league team to be any younger.
This past off-season, and this trading deadline, we have seen how over-priced veteran talent has become.
So: a) You don't want to part with veterans (unless it's Hinske, he of "negative trade value") and b) you're not really interested in picking up more prospects so c) not much room for a deal.
I don't think the Blue Jays want to get rid of any useful veterans in their prime and who don't have bad contracts--they need guys like this to mix-in with the young players. I don't think you would want your big league team to be any younger.
This past off-season, and this trading deadline, we have seen how over-priced veteran talent has become.
So: a) You don't want to part with veterans (unless it's Hinske, he of "negative trade value") and b) you're not really interested in picking up more prospects so c) not much room for a deal.
I think you can throw some real money in the off season toward some meaningful Vets. I'm not saying Vets are bad, but if we could get some Solid Young talent (who is extremely promising), It would be worth the "average" Hillenbrand.
Hillenbrand is likely going to make 5 million through Arbitration next season... is that worth it? Why not spend 3-4 million more and get someone who is way more valuable than him in the off season? Say Brian Giles? Who has absolutely disgusting numbers dispite playing in San Diego (has a road OPS 1.000 +).
Hillenbrand is likely going to make 5 million through Arbitration next season... is that worth it? Why not spend 3-4 million more and get someone who is way more valuable than him in the off season? Say Brian Giles? Who has absolutely disgusting numbers dispite playing in San Diego (has a road OPS 1.000 +).
I think you have to wait until you actually get those free agents to sign on the dotted line before you pencil them in for next year. Parity is growing in baseball and more clubs feel they're contenders, there could be 15 clubs interested in a given free agent. Remember Matt Clement? Still, if we had the will to overpay on Clement a few million per year over Boston's offer he might be a Blue Jay today. Maybe we'll have a chance to do that this off-season. Who knows?
It looks like AJ Burnett is going to be the main focus FA pitcher. Which heavy hitters are going to be free agents this off-season?
It looks like AJ Burnett is going to be the main focus FA pitcher. Which heavy hitters are going to be free agents this off-season?
Oh yeah, and the only way you're going to lure free agents is to have a team that appears on the brink of taking a division.
Dumping a Hillenbrand for prospects at the July trading deadline is no way to endear your organization to free agent players. (Hillenbrand, remember, was the players' choice to make the All-Star team.)
Dumping a Hillenbrand for prospects at the July trading deadline is no way to endear your organization to free agent players. (Hillenbrand, remember, was the players' choice to make the All-Star team.)
How does your Clement example have *anything* to do with Parity. The 2nd Highest spending team in the MLB got him by outbidding everyone!!
Shea Hillenbrand was voted to the All-Star team because of his absolutely Inhuman start. He was still riding the Coat tails of that, when you are the batting champ for about a month, it tends to play in your favor.
Why is that? Hillenbrand wasn't a free agent, they got him in a trade? I don't think any player next year is going to care which all-stars were chosen by whom.
This is something I just read, I don't think I would have liked Manny on the Jays, though. He just takes up too much cap room, and has a terrible attitude in the locker room with his "emotional stress".
"The Blue Jays and Marlins called the Red Sox about LF Manny Ramirez, but both clubs ultimately decided against making a strong push for him. Although Jays ownership has approved a payroll outlay of $210 million for 2005, 2006 and 2007, Ramirez still would have represented too large a percentage of the budget."
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=insidedishbravesmadepitc&prov=tsn&type=lgns
"The Blue Jays and Marlins called the Red Sox about LF Manny Ramirez, but both clubs ultimately decided against making a strong push for him. Although Jays ownership has approved a payroll outlay of $210 million for 2005, 2006 and 2007, Ramirez still would have represented too large a percentage of the budget."
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=insidedishbravesmadepitc&prov=tsn&type=lgns
Okay, the signs are "JERRY HOWARTH ROCKS 590" and the obvious and most predictable "AARON HILL FAN CLUB". The signs should be present on the facing of the Upper Deck. Depending on the convenience store quality in Cleveland, I might expand them.
If you can read this, gv27, tell your camera guy to look for the signs on Tuesday and Thursday :) You might hear a little cowbell too.
If you can read this, gv27, tell your camera guy to look for the signs on Tuesday and Thursday :) You might hear a little cowbell too.
VBF, it seems like I am returning from a baseball trip just as you are leaving. Coors Field is great, it's just I missed all of these great Jays games I would have rather been at.
I like the "Jerry Howarth 590" sign the best out of those 2.
Maybe do something involving Towers or count down Spier's whip, it's getting quite low now.
I like the "Jerry Howarth 590" sign the best out of those 2.
Maybe do something involving Towers or count down Spier's whip, it's getting quite low now.
So going into the games of August 1st there are only 4 major league teams that have scored 500+ runs and allowed 450- runs.
They are (sorted by run differential):
St. Louis Cardinals 532-406
Chicago White Sox 510-413
Toronto Blue Jays 513-444
Oakland Athletics 504-450
So the Jays are one of just 4 teams with this feat and have the second best run differential in the AL.
We've been relatively lucky this year in terms of injuries, but our 1-run games luck is killing us, as we should be legitimate contenders give our RS/RA.
By pythagerous we'd be at 59.5 and 44.5 and be leading the AL East.
I feel like it is Jays 2003 team all over again, except now the Red Sox and Yankees are not as good.
They are (sorted by run differential):
St. Louis Cardinals 532-406
Chicago White Sox 510-413
Toronto Blue Jays 513-444
Oakland Athletics 504-450
So the Jays are one of just 4 teams with this feat and have the second best run differential in the AL.
We've been relatively lucky this year in terms of injuries, but our 1-run games luck is killing us, as we should be legitimate contenders give our RS/RA.
By pythagerous we'd be at 59.5 and 44.5 and be leading the AL East.
I feel like it is Jays 2003 team all over again, except now the Red Sox and Yankees are not as good.
OK, let me clarify my point:
1. Just because the Blue Jays will be buyers in the FA market does not mean that they will be the only buyers. Therefore, players are going to choose the teams they find most attractive, often choosing teams close to post-season play.
2. Dumping key players for prospects does not get you closer to post-season play on a young team like the Blue Jays. It sets you back a year or two in development. What free agent is going to want to come to a situation like that?
IIRC: the Bosox did not outbid the Jays by much for Clement, the Bosox just had a more apparent chance of winning.
1. Just because the Blue Jays will be buyers in the FA market does not mean that they will be the only buyers. Therefore, players are going to choose the teams they find most attractive, often choosing teams close to post-season play.
2. Dumping key players for prospects does not get you closer to post-season play on a young team like the Blue Jays. It sets you back a year or two in development. What free agent is going to want to come to a situation like that?
IIRC: the Bosox did not outbid the Jays by much for Clement, the Bosox just had a more apparent chance of winning.
'Dumping key players for prospects does not get you closer to post-season play on a young team like the Blue Jays.'
Well I guess it depends on what you consider to be a 'key' player, and which prospects you get back.
Well I guess it depends on what you consider to be a 'key' player, and which prospects you get back.
Right, and Ricciardi has said that the only prospects he'd trade for are the kind that are ready to contribute now.
According to Griffin's column today, Riccardi was after 3 pitchers at the dealine, all of whom are currently in the minors, and will hopefully be ready to contribute in 2006 and 2007.
IIRC: the Bosox did not outbid the Jays by much for Clement, the Bosox just had a more apparent chance of winning.
This isn't right, actually. The Jays were outbid by a substantial amount.
<i>We've been relatively lucky this year in terms of injuries,</i>
Roy Halladay
Ted Lilly
Corey Koskie
Orlando Hudson
Gregg Zaun
lucky?
Roy Halladay
Ted Lilly
Corey Koskie
Orlando Hudson
Gregg Zaun
lucky?
Yes, lucky. Baseball Prospectus did a study a while ago that graphed all the teams by how hard they had been hit by injuries. The Jays were almost at the bottom of the list. Granted, this was before Halladay and Lilly, but even so they're probably still on the good side of average, injury-wise.
The Red Sox offered more, but not that much more. From the Star back in Decemeber.
Sources said Matt Clement agreed yesterday to a three-year deal worth $25.5 million (all figures U.S.).A Blue Jays source confirmed last night that Toronto's offer was at least $2 million below the package from the Red Sox.
----
As for the Jays injuries this year, as of 7/14, according to BP, the Jays had the second fewest DL days. The Jays were at about 100 days. The Astros who were just 2 slots lower were around 200, so I'd say the Jays have been very lucky this year.<i>Yes, lucky. Baseball Prospectus did a study a while ago that graphed all the teams by how hard they had been hit by injuries. The Jays were almost at the bottom of the list. Granted, this was before Halladay and Lilly, but even so they're probably still on the good side of average, injury-wise.</i>
the only way they come out "better than average" on the injury-luck-o-meter is if it ignores the quality and role of the players that sufferd injuries.
the only way they come out "better than average" on the injury-luck-o-meter is if it ignores the quality and role of the players that sufferd injuries.
Yes, lucky. Baseball Prospectus did a study a while ago that graphed all the teams by how hard they had been hit by injuries. The Jays were almost at the bottom of the list. Granted, this was before Halladay and Lilly, but even so they're probably still on the good side of average, injury-wise.
the only way they come out "better than average" on the injury-luck-o-meter is if it ignores the quality and role of the players that sufferd injuries.
Um, it did count the quality of the players. Everyone thinks their team is actually hit harder with injuries than others but the Jays have gotten off pretty well this year with injuries.
You listed:
Roy Halladay
Ted Lilly
Corey Koskie
Orlando Hudson
Gregg Zaun
Hudson has played in 97/104 games, missing only 7 games. Moreover Hudson is worth 4.8 WARP (this includes defense) over the 97 games which means that the 7 games cost only .35 wins above replacement.
Halladay has pitched in 19 games, 3 less than Chacin who leads the Jays in games started at 22. Halladay is going to miss around 5 starts. In his 19 starts he's saved 60 runs which is about 6 wins above replacement. Losing 5 more starts of his pitching is worth about 1.58 wins.
It is unclear how long Lilly is going to be out for but to date he's started 20 games and missed just 3. To date on the season Lilly has saved just 19 runs over replacement or 1.9 wins. The missing 3 games are worth just .29 wins.
Zaun missed just 11 games with the concussion, and as a catcher may not have even played in all 11. But he has played in 84 games so far this year and is worth about 2.2 wins above replacement. Those 11 wins are therefore worth about .29 wins.
Koskie has missed 60 games, played in 44. In the 44 games he is worth .9 wins over replacement. So his 60 games are worth 1.23 wins.
So totaling up those 5 you get 3.74 wins. But that is only if the Jays only have replacement quality players. Hill is the replacement for Koskie and he's put up 1.7 wins, .37 more than the amount Koskie would have put up by our projections! So 3.74 - 1.7 = 2.04.
A team is not expected to be healthy all year. If you only lose 2 wins to injury 2/3 of the way through the season you are very, very lucky. Think about how many wins the Jays lost to injury 2/3 through last season (which represents a very, very unlucky season)!
the only way they come out "better than average" on the injury-luck-o-meter is if it ignores the quality and role of the players that sufferd injuries.
Um, it did count the quality of the players. Everyone thinks their team is actually hit harder with injuries than others but the Jays have gotten off pretty well this year with injuries.
You listed:
Roy Halladay
Ted Lilly
Corey Koskie
Orlando Hudson
Gregg Zaun
Hudson has played in 97/104 games, missing only 7 games. Moreover Hudson is worth 4.8 WARP (this includes defense) over the 97 games which means that the 7 games cost only .35 wins above replacement.
Halladay has pitched in 19 games, 3 less than Chacin who leads the Jays in games started at 22. Halladay is going to miss around 5 starts. In his 19 starts he's saved 60 runs which is about 6 wins above replacement. Losing 5 more starts of his pitching is worth about 1.58 wins.
It is unclear how long Lilly is going to be out for but to date he's started 20 games and missed just 3. To date on the season Lilly has saved just 19 runs over replacement or 1.9 wins. The missing 3 games are worth just .29 wins.
Zaun missed just 11 games with the concussion, and as a catcher may not have even played in all 11. But he has played in 84 games so far this year and is worth about 2.2 wins above replacement. Those 11 wins are therefore worth about .29 wins.
Koskie has missed 60 games, played in 44. In the 44 games he is worth .9 wins over replacement. So his 60 games are worth 1.23 wins.
So totaling up those 5 you get 3.74 wins. But that is only if the Jays only have replacement quality players. Hill is the replacement for Koskie and he's put up 1.7 wins, .37 more than the amount Koskie would have put up by our projections! So 3.74 - 1.7 = 2.04.
A team is not expected to be healthy all year. If you only lose 2 wins to injury 2/3 of the way through the season you are very, very lucky. Think about how many wins the Jays lost to injury 2/3 through last season (which represents a very, very unlucky season)!