Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Who Wants to Win This Thing?

But the years went by and the rock just died
Suzie went and left us for some foreign guy
Long nights crying by the record machine
dreaming of my Chevy and my old blue jeans

Standings as of July 25th, 2005

1. Boston       54-44 .551         (10-14 4WK)
2. New York     52-45 .536  1.5 GB (14- 8 4WK)
3. Baltimore    50-47 .515  3.5 GB ( 8-14 4WK)
4. Toronto      49-49 .500  5.0 GB (11-11 4WK)
5. Tampa Bay    35-50 .354 19.5 GB ( 9-14 4WK)

Over the past four weeks, the Yankees have gained a great deal of ground against the Red Sox, the Jays less so. Baltimore, on the other hand, has slid badly, while the Devil Rays have only fallen back a 1/2 game on first place Boston, which I guess is a victory of sorts.

AL East Transactions

July 22 - Toronto trades John McDonald to Detroit for a PTBNL.

July 19 - Boston DFAs Alan Embree, trades Scott Cassidy to San Diego for Adam Hyzdu.

July 19 - Boston acquires Tony Graffanino from the Royals for OF Chip Ambres and P Juan Cedeno

July 16 - Boston signs Gabe Kapler.

July 16 - New York acquires Al Leiter from Florida for a PTBNL and cash.

July 14 - Boston acquires Chad Bradford from Oakland for Jay Payton.

July 12 - Tampa signs Joe Borowski.

Nothing too earth shattering here. It will be interesting to see if the Nevin for Ponson trade goes through. Might that start a chain of events that leads to even more trades? Only time will tell.

Al Leiter is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in 2 games since rejoining the Yankees. His peripherals look quite good: 10 strikeouts to 5 walks and no homeruns in 12 1/3 innings. His win came in his first Yankee start, giving up only 3 hits and 1 run over 6 1/3 against Boston. He struck out 8, walked 3, and threw 102 pitches.

His second start against the Angels was not nearly as successful: 10 hits and 6 runs over 6 innings against the Angels. He walked 2, struck out 2, and threw 104 pitches.

Coming Soon

Here's what the next 2 weeks brings for the four contending teams in the AL East:

Boston

3 away vs. Tampa       (TBD .469 home)
3 home vs. Minnesota   (MIN .510 away)
3 home vs. Kansas City (KCR .306 away)
3 away vs. Minnesota   (MIN .569 home)
12 games               (AVG .464)

A fairly light schedule for the Red Sox, though the Twins are also fighting for a playoff spot, so those games should be tough. The Devil Rays are a surprisingly tough home team, with a 23-26 record in Tampa vs. a 12-38 record away. The Royals have a similar split; fortunately for the Sox they play them in Fenway. The 2 off-days the Red Sox get should also help.

New York

3 home vs. Minnesota   (MIN .510 away)
3 home vs. Angels      (LAA .617 away)
3 away vs. Cleveland   (CLE .490 at home)
3 away vs. Toronto     (TOR .565 at home)
12 games               (AVG .546)

There's no gimmes here, as the Yankees play 4 quality teams over the next 2 weeks. The Blue Jays are particularly strong at home, with a 26-20 record at the RC compared to a 23-29 record on the road. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees get 2 off-days.

Baltimore

4 home vs. Texas       (TEX .444 away)
4 home vs. Chicago     (CHI .689 away)
3 away vs. Angels      (LAA .577 at home)
3 away vs. Texas       (TEX .538 at home)
14 games               (AVG .563)

A tough schedule for the Orioles, as half of their games against tough White Sox and Angels teams. Texas doesn't play well outside of Arlington; if the Orioles do not take at least 3 out of 4, they're going to have a very rough go of it. No off days hurts.

Toronto

3 home vs. Angels      (LAA .617 away)
3 home vs. Texas       (TEX .444 away)
3 away vs. Chicago     (CWS .635 at home)
3 home vs. New York    (NYY .469 away)
12 games               (AVG .541)

A pretty tough schedule for the Jays as well, but not quite up there with Baltimore's. Fortunately for the Bluebirds, the Yankees have been a fairly lousy road team this year, going 23-26. They'll have to hope that holds up. Like Boston and the Yankees, the Jays should be fairly rested.

All and all, this fortnight's schedule seems to favour the Red Sox. That doesn't guarantee that they'll start to pull away from the pack - that's why they play the games!

Posted by Pepper Moffatt on Monday, July 25 2005 @ 12:30 PM EDT.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#123782) #

Boston, Baltimore, and the Yankees all have money, have needs and are in contention. There probably will be moves at the deadline. It would be a surprise if anyone ran away and hid now.

Leigh - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#123784) #

The Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox have the three best park-adjusted team Equivalent Averages (BPro) in the American League right now, at .275, .274 and .273, respectively. The Rangers rank a distant fourth at .263.

The Orioles will likely be adding Javy Lopez and Phil Nevin as soon as tomorrow. The Yankees appear to have added the real Jason Giambi sometime earlier this month and will surely do something to plug the Womack/Crosby sink-hole. The Red Sox have the best starting pitching of the trio, by a wide margin. This is going to be a very interesting race.

Pepper Moffatt - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#123785) #

It is going to be an interesting race. The schedule for the rest of the year somewhat favours the Red Sox, which puts them at a 56.2% chance to win the division according to BP. The Yankees are at 28.8%, the Orioles at 11.1% and the Jays at 4.0%. This is anybody's game. Except the Devil Rays.

For whatever reason, some teams have played a lot more away games than others. The Red Sox have played 8 more away games than home games, the Jays 6, the Orioles 3, the Yankees 1. That should help the Red Sox and the Jays out.

Mike Green - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#123789) #

Here's a question- who can each of the other contenders least afford to lose?

I said at the start of season that Damon was for the Sox, and I'm sticking to my story. I'd say Mariano Rivera for the Yanks, and Tejada for the O's. I'm not suggesting voodoo dolls or anything, but what with Doc's DL trips in 2004 and 2005, it just doesn't seem right.

Joe - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#123793) #

Jays without Doc: 5-6 and counting.

Jays without Zaun: 8-5.

This does not prove my point. :(

Lefty - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#123797) #

Pretty tough to argue against these percentages as handicapped by B.P.

So if this was a horse race I'd be pretty comfortable with $100 to show on the Jays. If they win or place then its a bonus return.

Dr. Zarco - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#123798) #

Joe, I think it's 5-7 in the post-Doc era. 5-8 if you count the actual game he left. I'm just glad to read he'll be back in 10-14 days, sooner than I expected. And not out of the question for the White Sox series, yay!

Mick Doherty - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#123800) #

Mike, as much as Mo means to the Yankees, I'd say it'd be FAR worse for them to lose Johnson or Mussina. The rotation is too dicey at this point.

Mike Green - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#123802) #

You certainly know the Yanks better than I do, Mick. THT's Yankee pitching stats are interesting. It doesn't look like Pavano or Brown pitched as badly as their ERAs would indicate. I'll say this: the loss of Mussina, Johnson or Rivera would be devastating at this point.

The_Game - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#123804) #

Yanks can't afford to lose Rivera, Orioles can't afford to lose Tejada, and the Red Sox can't afford to lose Jason Varitek.

Mylegacy - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#123808) #

...and the Jays can't afford to lose every other game.

westcoast dude - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#123812) #

Meanwhile, at Tropicana, Timlin blows another save, and Curt Schilling loses it in the 10th. Add to that the O's lose again, and hey, maybe a .500 record from here on in just might be enough to win the East.

VBF - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#123814) #

How about those Tampa Bay DevilRays!

.....what? It's true! They're Red Hot.

Mylegacy - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#123816) #

What's bugging us is that we all know the way BOS NY etal are playing that this division is winnable, BUT we've been playing like we don't want it either.

Four and a half out. THIS IS WINNABLE. We don't need to be a really good team like we were in the late 80's and early 90's. The team that's gonna win this division is the one that takes the ONE step more, the one that gets HUNGRY and MEAN. The one with the GM that makes that ONE KEY TRADE. We need just one more level of accomplishment.

Can we do it? YES! Will we do it? That's why we watch the games. I see tears and joy ahead. Hopefully it won't end in tears for us.

smcs - Monday, July 25 2005 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#123817) #

Hey, the D-Rays are 8-3 since the All-Star Break. IF they stay on this pace for the rest of the season, they will go 45-17 and finish at .500, a tie with the Jays.

I came almost guarantee that they will not stay at this pace, I mean, they are the D-Rays.

VBF - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#123819) #

THIS IS WINNABLE

Yes! We will win! I believe! Do you believe?

jvictor - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#123821) #

At the start of this season I thought that if only one team to come out of the east, it would be a successful season for the Jays - something to hang their hats on. As is to be expected, I now want more. Can it be done? Yes. Will it be done? I am sceptical.

This is a frustrating team; one week your up, the next your down. And those ups serve to make the lows ever lower. Let's wait out this week and see what the cruel and capricious gods have in store. I doubt there is a blockbuster trade out there, but I am antsy for someone who can hit the ball out of the park with some regularity. Be he a veteran for this year or someone for next year.

Jim - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#123827) #

The Jays have to go a minimum of 41-23 to sniff winning the Wild Card. Might be more like 43-21. That would be quite a run.

Tenobia - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#123830) #

Congrats to Frank Catalanotto, named AL Player of the Week. Frank obviously wants to win this thing!

Named For Hank - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#123841) #

Jim, so they should probably just try to win the division, eh? Looks like it'll be not quite as hard.

Jim - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#123845) #

I know the Yankees and Red Sox have both struggled and you might be right (even though you weren't making that point) - the division winner might only end up at 90, as opposed to the Wild Card which I could see getting 92/93 if it's Oakland or Anaheim.

One of my favorite sentiments that some have on the site is that somehow the attitude of the posters has some effect on the attitude of a major league team. Oh if someone posts that it's incredibly difficult to pass 4 or 5 teams in a Wild Card race even if you are only 4 or 5 games back that somehow limits the chance that they will do it. . .

Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#123846) #

BP's playoff odds report to the rescue!

Projected # wins for AL East winner = 91.9
Projected # wins for AL Wild Card = 90.5

Chance Jays will win AL East = 3.91%
Chance Jays will win AL Wild = 1.93%

Jim - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#123847) #

It's a cool report. It just doesn't take into account the fact that Boston is a better team with Schilling back or that Roy Halladay is going to have to come back and dominate from a broken leg.

It also doesn't account for which bold GM is going to make the right move at the deadline. My money would be on Beane, therefore taking the Wild Card win total higher then the AL East...

Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#123850) #

Oh yeah.. there's a million things it doesn't take into account. It's a pretty good rough guide, though, since it considers things like strength of schedule, whereas just glancing at the standings won't.

If the A's get too good, though, they could instead win the AL West, which kind of puts a cap on how high the AL Wild Card can go.

Jim - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#123852) #

The Indians must have one heck of a weak schedule for them to win 19.59% of the wild card races. Must have a ton of games with KC left.

Jim - Tuesday, July 26 2005 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#123854) #

7 KC
9 Tampa.

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