After the weekend debacle against the struggling Devil Rays, Toronto welcomes the not-so-struggling crew from Seattle, which is making the trek out east for a three-game set. Note that Thursday afternoon is a 12:30 pm matinee.
* General: The M's are an impressive 6-2 after two four-game sets against contending clubs (Angels and Orioles) ... Last in the AL in runs, AVG, OBP and SLG ... Their pitching staff is last in all of baseball in K's. They've collectively only recorded 473 whiffs ... One thing that has been excellent for Seattle all season has been the bullpen. Their collective ERA of 2.95 challenges Cleveland for the best bullpen ERA in baseball ... Seattle is 8-22 when the opponent scores in the first inning ... OPS seems to be dispositive to this team: When they fail to homer, Seattle is 9-33. When they fail to draw at least four walks, the club is 20-40 ... The Mariners scored points in the clubhouse by accommodating Bret Boone's desire to play in Minnesota. Sexson: "I think a lot of us in here appreciate the way it was handled" ... Uberprospect Felix Hernandez was roughed up for three runs in one inning last week ... 19-year-old Adam Jones is hitting .341 in AA San Antonio, despite wide criticism for promoting to such a high level at such a tender age ... The most attractive and available Mariner on the trading block might be Ron Villone, who's having a fine year ... The M's, of all teams, are leading the majors by a mile with bases-loaded hitting at .429/.437/.730. The only other club with a .400 average with the sacks drunk? Surprise! It's the Jays ...
* Miguel Olivo: Stays very still at the plate ... His bat speed is too good for him to be struggling the way he is ... Dead-red fastball pull hitter that prefers the ball in ... Struggling mightily with any and all breaking pitches of late. His head seems to fly off the ball ... Will chase breaking stuff down and away ... Homered and stole a base in Sunday's matinee ...
* Richie Sexson: Has gone deep 20 times already, including three of his last five games ... Tremendous power to all fields, and can take any pitch up in the zone deep ... His biggest hole seems to be down and in. Righties should run fastballs in on him at the knees ... Will also chase down and away ...
* Eddie Guardado: Everyday Eddie is having an excellent bounce-back season ... Deceptive delivery conceals whether a high-80s splitter or a low-80s slider is coming ... His splitter can hang, though -- just ask Carlos Delgado ... Changes speeds on his slider, which can get as low as 75 or so on the gun ... No better than 87 or so with his fastball, but because of his array of junk, it's sneaky fast ... Oddly, Guardado has been in the ballpark for five 3,000th hits: He saw Winfield, Molitor, Murray, Ripken and Palmeiro pull off the feat in person ...
* Jose Lopez: The 21-year-old Lopez has the frame to grow into some power ... Compact swing ... Gets out on his front foot sometimes, but stays down on pitches well ... Pretty good speed ... Chases anything off-speed and away ... Undisciplined and has yet to walk in 57 at-bats ...
* Ichiro Suzuki: Having kind of a desultory year by his lofty standards ... Hitting .389 in July, but his last 19 hits have all been singles ... Hit just .288 in May and a stunning .243 in June ... Still has that amazing bat speed, and he's taken the art of pitch recognition from lefthanded pitchers to another level ... Has a hole up and away, where he can neither drive the ball nor lay off pitches ... Tremendous accelerator on the basepaths ... Since 2001, nobody's hit Jays pitching for a higher average than Ichiro (.401) ...
* Raul Ibanez: Upright stance, and he opens up quickly (like a Shawn Green) ... Goes with the pitch effectively and sprays the ball from gap to gap ... Can be overpowered up and away ... Pretty good eye at the plate ... Does not like the ball on the inside corner and can be frozen there ... Like Ichiro and Randy Winn, Ibanez has played every single game this season ...
* Aaron Sele: Herky-jerky delivery ... Throws a slow, slow curve that he has to keep down. It's very prone to hanging ... Seldom cracks the high 80s with his four-seam fastball. He has to work the corners and off the corners -- if it catches the plate, it's meat ... His fastball is most effective when it's right in on the hands of righthanded hitters. He works there often -- I smell a Hillenbrand HBP ... Frustratingly, he's 6-0, 3.38 in his last seven starts against the Jays ...
* Ryan Franklin: Tight, low-80s curve that's a nice pitch when he starts it thigh-high. He works it down and in on lefties ... Likes to pound a low-90s fastball up and away from hitters ... Horizontal swing to his leg kick, like a less fluid Dave Stieb ... His two-seam fastball has only modest movement to it. It's the pitch to sit on, especially if he leaves it over the plate ...
* Joel Pineiro: Check out his ERA progression: 2.04 (2001), 3.24 (2002), 3.78 (2003), 4.67 (2004), 5.61 (2005) ... Doesn't snap off his slider as effectively as he once could. He's hung a bunch of them this season, which helps explain his rising HR rate and declining K rate ... Low-90s four-seamer has been pretty straight and pretty hittable ... Seems to rush through his full windup ... Still throws a great 12-to-6 curve, though, which seems to tumble off a table ...
* Jeremy Reed: The Mariners acquired him in the Freddy Garcia trade, expecting him to be a batting average and OBP machine. Instead, he's distinguished himself with some spectacular centrefield defence ... Sees righthanded breaking pitches well, but struggles terribly with lefthanded junk ... Has not homered since May 29 ... Runs well, but it hasn't translated to base stealing ...
* Adrian Beltre: After a .240/.290/.424 2003, Beltre emerged with a .334/.388/.629 line in 2004. The M's paid dearly for the '04 Beltre, but have received the '03 version ... Seems to have his knees locked at the plate in his extra-wide stance, and his balance seems to be off ... He's waving helplessly at breaking stuff down and away ... He has not been able to lay off sinkers and sliders this season, and he's on pace to set a career high in only one category: K's ...
* Mike Morse: The 23-year-old Morse stands at 6'4", 220. His first big league home run won't be his last ... Good weight transfer and a level swing at the plate ... Pretty good idea at the plate in terms of strike zone judgment, too ... Decent baserunner but not blazing speed ... Lays off most pitches away and can be regularly frozen there. He doesn't get any "veteran's calls" ...
* Randy Winn: Lifetime .314/.381/.423 hitter against the Jays ... Posting a .310 OBP in July after a .318 OBP in June ... Spoils two-strike pitches well ... Does not stay down well on breaking stuff down and away ... Seems more tentative from the right side of the plate, getting caught looking on strikes ... Not as fluid defensively as his reputation suggests ... Just 9-for-15 on the basepaths this season ...
The Mariners' offseason spending spree, as many predicted, was not sufficient to vault the club into contention in the tough AL West (although few would have predicted the total regression of Adrian Beltre). The M's are pretty good defensively and have an outstanding bullpen, but their starters have been shaky and the lineup isn't deep. It's an opportunity for the Jays to get on track, so long as they take the right approach at the plate.
This week's Scout features a peach-fuzz middle infield, a much-ballyhooed but fading ace and a few guys that just seem to have Toronto's number.
On to the Advance Scout!* General: The M's are an impressive 6-2 after two four-game sets against contending clubs (Angels and Orioles) ... Last in the AL in runs, AVG, OBP and SLG ... Their pitching staff is last in all of baseball in K's. They've collectively only recorded 473 whiffs ... One thing that has been excellent for Seattle all season has been the bullpen. Their collective ERA of 2.95 challenges Cleveland for the best bullpen ERA in baseball ... Seattle is 8-22 when the opponent scores in the first inning ... OPS seems to be dispositive to this team: When they fail to homer, Seattle is 9-33. When they fail to draw at least four walks, the club is 20-40 ... The Mariners scored points in the clubhouse by accommodating Bret Boone's desire to play in Minnesota. Sexson: "I think a lot of us in here appreciate the way it was handled" ... Uberprospect Felix Hernandez was roughed up for three runs in one inning last week ... 19-year-old Adam Jones is hitting .341 in AA San Antonio, despite wide criticism for promoting to such a high level at such a tender age ... The most attractive and available Mariner on the trading block might be Ron Villone, who's having a fine year ... The M's, of all teams, are leading the majors by a mile with bases-loaded hitting at .429/.437/.730. The only other club with a .400 average with the sacks drunk? Surprise! It's the Jays ...
* Miguel Olivo: Stays very still at the plate ... His bat speed is too good for him to be struggling the way he is ... Dead-red fastball pull hitter that prefers the ball in ... Struggling mightily with any and all breaking pitches of late. His head seems to fly off the ball ... Will chase breaking stuff down and away ... Homered and stole a base in Sunday's matinee ...
* Richie Sexson: Has gone deep 20 times already, including three of his last five games ... Tremendous power to all fields, and can take any pitch up in the zone deep ... His biggest hole seems to be down and in. Righties should run fastballs in on him at the knees ... Will also chase down and away ...
* Eddie Guardado: Everyday Eddie is having an excellent bounce-back season ... Deceptive delivery conceals whether a high-80s splitter or a low-80s slider is coming ... His splitter can hang, though -- just ask Carlos Delgado ... Changes speeds on his slider, which can get as low as 75 or so on the gun ... No better than 87 or so with his fastball, but because of his array of junk, it's sneaky fast ... Oddly, Guardado has been in the ballpark for five 3,000th hits: He saw Winfield, Molitor, Murray, Ripken and Palmeiro pull off the feat in person ...
* Jose Lopez: The 21-year-old Lopez has the frame to grow into some power ... Compact swing ... Gets out on his front foot sometimes, but stays down on pitches well ... Pretty good speed ... Chases anything off-speed and away ... Undisciplined and has yet to walk in 57 at-bats ...
* Ichiro Suzuki: Having kind of a desultory year by his lofty standards ... Hitting .389 in July, but his last 19 hits have all been singles ... Hit just .288 in May and a stunning .243 in June ... Still has that amazing bat speed, and he's taken the art of pitch recognition from lefthanded pitchers to another level ... Has a hole up and away, where he can neither drive the ball nor lay off pitches ... Tremendous accelerator on the basepaths ... Since 2001, nobody's hit Jays pitching for a higher average than Ichiro (.401) ...
* Raul Ibanez: Upright stance, and he opens up quickly (like a Shawn Green) ... Goes with the pitch effectively and sprays the ball from gap to gap ... Can be overpowered up and away ... Pretty good eye at the plate ... Does not like the ball on the inside corner and can be frozen there ... Like Ichiro and Randy Winn, Ibanez has played every single game this season ...
* Aaron Sele: Herky-jerky delivery ... Throws a slow, slow curve that he has to keep down. It's very prone to hanging ... Seldom cracks the high 80s with his four-seam fastball. He has to work the corners and off the corners -- if it catches the plate, it's meat ... His fastball is most effective when it's right in on the hands of righthanded hitters. He works there often -- I smell a Hillenbrand HBP ... Frustratingly, he's 6-0, 3.38 in his last seven starts against the Jays ...
* Ryan Franklin: Tight, low-80s curve that's a nice pitch when he starts it thigh-high. He works it down and in on lefties ... Likes to pound a low-90s fastball up and away from hitters ... Horizontal swing to his leg kick, like a less fluid Dave Stieb ... His two-seam fastball has only modest movement to it. It's the pitch to sit on, especially if he leaves it over the plate ...
* Joel Pineiro: Check out his ERA progression: 2.04 (2001), 3.24 (2002), 3.78 (2003), 4.67 (2004), 5.61 (2005) ... Doesn't snap off his slider as effectively as he once could. He's hung a bunch of them this season, which helps explain his rising HR rate and declining K rate ... Low-90s four-seamer has been pretty straight and pretty hittable ... Seems to rush through his full windup ... Still throws a great 12-to-6 curve, though, which seems to tumble off a table ...
* Jeremy Reed: The Mariners acquired him in the Freddy Garcia trade, expecting him to be a batting average and OBP machine. Instead, he's distinguished himself with some spectacular centrefield defence ... Sees righthanded breaking pitches well, but struggles terribly with lefthanded junk ... Has not homered since May 29 ... Runs well, but it hasn't translated to base stealing ...
* Adrian Beltre: After a .240/.290/.424 2003, Beltre emerged with a .334/.388/.629 line in 2004. The M's paid dearly for the '04 Beltre, but have received the '03 version ... Seems to have his knees locked at the plate in his extra-wide stance, and his balance seems to be off ... He's waving helplessly at breaking stuff down and away ... He has not been able to lay off sinkers and sliders this season, and he's on pace to set a career high in only one category: K's ...
* Mike Morse: The 23-year-old Morse stands at 6'4", 220. His first big league home run won't be his last ... Good weight transfer and a level swing at the plate ... Pretty good idea at the plate in terms of strike zone judgment, too ... Decent baserunner but not blazing speed ... Lays off most pitches away and can be regularly frozen there. He doesn't get any "veteran's calls" ...
* Randy Winn: Lifetime .314/.381/.423 hitter against the Jays ... Posting a .310 OBP in July after a .318 OBP in June ... Spoils two-strike pitches well ... Does not stay down well on breaking stuff down and away ... Seems more tentative from the right side of the plate, getting caught looking on strikes ... Not as fluid defensively as his reputation suggests ... Just 9-for-15 on the basepaths this season ...
