Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - This Day In Baseball: 19 July 2005

This Day In Baseball: 19 July 2005

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
--- Rogers Hornsby

Updated since originally posted!

Because my life is soooo complicated!

A changing of the guard in the AL East! Sitting atop the division, like a lame but dangerous colossus, for the first time since April 9... the New York Yankees? Who saw that coming? Didn't we write these bozos off, a long time ago? And several times since then? haven't they allowed more runs than any team in the American League except the Tampa Bay Devil Rays? What'sa going on?

It helps when everyone else in the division is reeling. The Red Sox have lost 6 of 7; the Blue Jays have lost 6 of 7. The Orioles lost 12 of 15 just before the All-Star Break. The Yankees have won 11 of their last 13, and while they give up lots and lots of runs, they score even more - more than any other team in the majors. Alex Rodriguez leads the league in slugging and HRs, is tied for the lead in On-Base Pct., and is third in RBI. Rodriguez leads the league in runs scored, Derek Jeter is second, and Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui are also in the top ten.

The schedule favours Boston, slightly. The Orioles and Yankees both have more remaining games on the road than at home.

Tomorrow, we may well be talking about the changing of the guard in the NL East. Washington's lead is down .5 game over the charging Atlanta Braves. Chipper Jones returned to the lineup yesterday, and promptly hit a home run. Rafael Furcal is suddenly on fire, hitting .341 over the last month.

That obscure object of desire, A.J. Burnett, will try to even his record at 6-6 unless the Marlins have traded him to Baltimore by the time you read this.

Today's schedule:

AL
Tampa Bay (Fossum 4-7, 4.02) at Boston (Arroyo 7-5, 4.14) 7:05
Kansas City (Greinke 2-11, 6.05) at Cleveland (Millwood 3-8, 3.38) 7:05
Seattle (Sele 6-9, 4.77) at Toronto (Lilly 7-9, 5.21) 7:07
Detroit (Bonderman 11-6, 4.23) at Chicago (Contreras 5-5, 3.99) 8:05
New York (Mussina 9-5, 4.15) at Texas (Park 8-4, 5.64) 8:05
Baltimore (Cabrera 8-7, 4.70) at Minnesota (Lohse 7-8, 4.42) 8:10
Oakland (Harden 6-4, 2.23) at Los Angeles (Washburn 6-4, 3.23) 10:05

NL
Houston (Astacio 0-4, 9.47 and Rodriguez 4-4, 7.25) at Pittsburgh (Redman 4-9, 4.01 and Snell 0-0, 7.00) 5:05 and 8:05
Colorado (Chacon 1-5, 4.30) at Washington (Patterson 3-2, 2.92) 7:05
Los Angeles (Penny 5-5, 3.33) at Philadelphia (Myers 7-5, 3.26) 7:05
Chicago (Prior 6-3, 3.07) at Cincinnati (Hudson 1-4, 9.85) 7:10
San Diego (Lawrence 5-9, 4.27) at New York (Benson 6-3, 3.57) 7:10
Milwaukee (Davis 9-7, 4.03) at St.Louis (Suppan 9-7, 4.21) 8:10
Florida (Burnett 5-6, 3.64) at Arizona (Vazquez 8-8, 4.25) 9:40
Atlanta (Ramirez 8-5, 4.60) at San Francisco (Schmidt 7-5, 4.80) 10:15

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 12:05 PM EDT.

This Day In Baseball: 19 July 2005 | 20 comments | Create New Account

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Jordan - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#123189) #

More details on the diminishing likelihood that AJ Burnett will wind up in a Blue Jays uniform. Jeff Blair has a couple of interesting asides, however:

Ricciardi has other options. Kip Wells of the Pittsburgh Pirates is being shopped around, and the Blue Jays spoke earlier in the season to the Seattle Mariners about right-hander Gil Meche. Matt Morris of the St. Louis Cardinals and Jarrod Washburn of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are potential free agents who have also piqued the Blue Jays' interest, but with their teams destined for the playoffs, they would exact a high price.

Right-hand pitcher Javier Vazquez of the Arizona Diamondbacks has the right to demand a trade at the end of the season and would not balk at playing in Toronto.

Kip Wells, no thank you. Meche has a lot of question marks around his health and effectiveness. I like Vazquez a lot, but I wonder if he's simply more comfortable in the National League? Morris and Washburn would obviously be terrific additions (especially Morris), but they'd cost the moon (especially Morris), and free-agent pitchers are a very volatile commodity. Lots to think about, but I doubt FAs will be much more easily coaxed to Toronto this winter than they were last winter. The trade route remains the preferable path to bulking up the roster; Vazquez remains intriguing for that reason.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#123191) #

According to my daily newspaper, the Angels and Washburn are favoured over the A's and Harden. Hmm, I guess pitching isn't 75% of the game, after all. Even if it isn't, I'd gladly take the Beane Counters in this one.

Burnett and Vazquez is an interesting matchup. Both are free agents after this year, and it is strange that Burnett seems to be the more sought-after commodity. Vazquez has been better over his career, has been healthier and is younger. This year, once the difference between Pro Player and BOB is factored out, Burnett has only been a little better. Well, maybe not even. THT's elaborate pitching stats show that Burnett has allowed 4.32 runs per game to Vazquez' 4.39, but that Vazquez' fielding independent pitching is marginally lower.

Jefftown - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#123192) #

Looks very possible that Burnett could be heading to Baltimore, not in the deal we all thought, but through a three-way deal with Pittsburgh.

O's would get Burnett, Daryle Ward, and Eric Reed, the Marlins would get Penn, Bigbie, and Redman, and the Pirates would get Lowell and a good deal of cash from the Marlins to help cover his contract.

Here's the link (sorry, not versed in the html format yet):

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2005/07/19/a1c_PBP_MARLINSNEWS_0719.html

Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#123193) #

That's a really insane trade for the Pirates. They lose their 1B and CF (albeit it not very good ones) to pick up a 3B that's on the Jeff Cirillo career path. That trade makes zero sense to me. So it could happen. :)

Baseball Prospectus has their adjusted standings that takes into account things like Pytah percentage and strength of schedule. Check it out at:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

If you take those into account, you see something like:

BOS: 54-38
BAL: 53-39
NYY: 51-40
TOR: 48-44
TAM: 39-55

Of course, you can't take away the games the teams have already played (they still count in the standings!), but that should give you some indication of how the teams will play in the future.

Apparently the entire AL East has a worse record than it should. I guess they've all had tough schedules.

Jonny German - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#123194) #

Burnett and Vazquez is an interesting matchup. Both are free agents after this year

Actually, Vazquez signed his 4-year $45M deal with the Yankees in the 2003 off-season, so he's still under contract through the 2007 season. He can however demand a trade after this year, as he was traded in the middle of a multi-year contract. I agree that Vazquez is a safer bet than Burnett.

Flex - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#123200) #

Tom Verducci has an article up on the SI site about "The Ten Most Important Players on the Trade Block." Guess who shows up at number 9?

"9. Eric Hinske, Toronto
The Blue Jays will get Corey Koskie back soon, they need to keep giving Aaron Hill at-bats and they want to hang on to All-Star Shea Hillenbrand, all of which makes for a crowded infield. Hinske would help upgrade the poor Minnesota offense."

God love Tom Verducci.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#123201) #

Hinske would help upgrade the poor Minnesota offense.

You're thinking that would have to be one pretty poor offense, wouldn't it? Well, it is - 12th in the league in scoring. But still...

Lefty - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#123210) #

Boston Globe is reporting Alan Embree is being DFA'ed.

Also reporting Scot Cassidy is sent to the Pad's for Adam Hyzdu.

Ok, I know Embree has been no hell this year but nonetheless I'm pretty suprized to see him DFA.

Looks like the Red Sox might be getting the jitters.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#123212) #

That's awfully sweet of Tom Verducci.

Thanks, Jonny, for the correction on Vazquez' status. Do you have a current link for contract info? I checked on bbref.com, and it showed that Vazquez' 2004 salary was $9 million, so presumably the contract is back-end loaded.

Mike D - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#123213) #

Vazquez is making $10.5 this year, $11.5 in 2006 and $12.5 in 2006. His contract is a bit more palatable than that, though, since the Yankees agreed to pay $3M/year of his salary as part of the Unit trade.

If he demands a trade, and the D-Backs don't comply, he becomes a free agent on March 15, 2006. Interesting...

Mike D - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#123214) #

D'oh! That should read $12.5 in 2007, obviously.

Thomas - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#123215) #

Didn't the BoSox deal Hydzu to the Padres last year, just after spring training?

I guess they finally realised their near-fatal mistake.....

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#123216) #

The BP 3rd order standings that Mike Moffat linked to are very interesting. If you accept the standings, complete parity has been achieved in MLB. No team has more than 53 third order wins, or the top pace would be about 90 third order wins per season.

So, here is a trivia question- what is the fewest number of wins recorded in a season by the team which won the most games that season, since the leagues moved to a 162 game schedule? I'd guess that it was 97, but I am wrong. Guesses anyone, and bonus points if you can get the season.

Gitz - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#123218) #

I will guess 94, in 1987, a year that seemed to offer no outstanding teams, a thesis somewhat ratified in the Twins -- the 86-win Twins, if I recall -- winning the World Series.

Gitz - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#123219) #

Well, foo. That smacking you're hearing is from various Bauxites raking me with two-by-fours. (No teamsters, though!) I guess the Blue Jays and Tigers had a fairly respectable pennant race that year . . .

Mike D - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#123220) #

Not true, Gitz. The Jays were an outstanding team that year (96 wins)...just slightly less outstanding than those damned Tigers (98).

Of course, the Jays were 96-59 before ending the season 96-66...

[/shaking head sadly]

Gitz - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#123221) #

As you can see, Mike, I became aware of my error soon after checking baseball-reference. What can I say? 1987 was a bizarre year, it must have affected my memory. Say ... maybe I was hit in the head by one of those 50,000 home runs that were hit that season!

No, that's not true, I was clueless long before 1987. (Well, not too much before. 1985 ... 1984 at the absolute earliest.)

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#123225) #

I have to go. Here's a clue. Gitz has the right decade.

Jim - Tuesday, July 19 2005 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#123245) #

My guess is the 1990 National League - the Reds only won like 90, I don't remember how many the Pirates won, but I would guess less then 97.

Maybe I don't understand the question though because the A's won 100+ games in the AL.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 20 2005 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#123288) #

The correct answer is Harvey's Wallbangers (the 1982 Brewers) with 95 wins to lead the majors. It wouldn't shock me if that record were broken this year, although somehow I suspect that the Cardinals are going to end up with more than 95.

This Day In Baseball: 19 July 2005 | 20 comments | Create New Account

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