Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - This Day In Baseball: 14 July 2005

This Day In Baseball: 14 July 2005

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
------ Earl Weaver

Is everybody rested, refreshed, ready?

Because the next 17 days will tell a tale. The 31st of July is, of course, "the trading deadline." It's actually not precisely a trading deadline - but from 1 August through the end of the season, players may not be traded between major league teams without first clearing waivers.

Some teams are going to decide during the next two weeks if they want to bet on the whole pot right now, or fold their hand. (I'm not a poker player, please correct my metaphor if I screwed it up!)

The Red Sox bullpen has been an ugly, open wound all season. I have no doubt whatsoever, though, that Curt Schilling is capable of solving that problem. The Red Sox have a .632 winning percentage at home, and 43 of their remaining 75 games are at Fenway.

The Yankees have been roasted all season for not going after Carlos Beltran with more enthusiasm. Fair enough, because despite Beltran's problems this year, he's still much better than anything the Yankees have. Still - despite Randy Johnson's sub-Unit type of season, does anyone want to think what the Yankees pitching would be like this year without Johnson?

The Orioles need Erik Bedard back (he's supposed to start on Monday). They also need Bruce Chen to resist the urge to turn back into a pumpkin, and they need to figure out what to do about Sosa.

The Blue Jays need to see if they can even survive without Halladay. If they can fight the league to a draw over the next couple of weeks, maybe - maybe - they'll do something that would help over the final two months, as well as beyond.

Tampa has some interesting young talent, and someday they'll all sign somewhere else as free agents.

The good news for the White Sox, besides having a 9 game lead, is that they're finished with Oakland. The A's account for almost one-quarter of all the White Sox losses this year (7 of 29).

The White Sox have won with great pitching and a mediocre offense. The Twins offense has been a little worse than mediocre; their pitching, while very good, hasn't quite as good as Chicago's. Mark Buehrle has been better than Johan Santana, and Jon Garland has been better than Brad Radke.

Cleveland's offense has begun to wake up. Most of them anyway - Casey Blake, Aaron Boone, and Victor Martinez are still missing in action. Jake Westbrook has actually pitched much better than his 6-11, 4.67 line would suggest.

Detroit isn't really in the Wild Card race, and they're just trying to maintain the climb back towards respectability.

The Royals dream of respectability.

The Angels lead in the West has been shrinking, but they look pretty good anyway. They lost Vlad Guerrero for a few weeks, Kelvim Escobar had made just 7 starts, Steve Finley has been a huge disappointment. But Vlad has been on fire since returning and Bartolo Colon has been sensational.

The Rangers are hanging around, as they continue to sift through pitchers trying to find guys who can survive in the Texas heat. The impending loss of Kenny Rogers is not going to help.

If anyone is going to challenge the Angels, it will be Oakland. They have almost no power whatsoever, and one has to think Beane will do something to address that. But Harden, Zito, and Haren is the new Big Three and they haven't lost a step.

The Mariners, meanwhile, are wondering when Raul Ibanez became a better hitter than Adrian Beltre.

Tomorrow, a few thoughts about the National League. For now, some News, Rumours, Lies, and Gossip:

The long-rumoured Oakland-Boston swap of Jay Payton for Chad Bradford has finally been consummated. Gammons, who was reporting this deal weeks ago, now says that Payton may end up in the Bronx. The Red Sox have also activated Curt Schilling from the DL. To make room, Kevin Youkilis and Scott Cassidy are going down to Pawtucket.

The Rockies have traded Preston Wilson to Washington in exchange for Zach Day, J.J. Davis and a PTBNL. The Nationals have added LH Mike Stanton, the cast-off Yankee, to their bullpen.

The Rockies also sent Joe Kennedy and Jay Witasick to Oakland for Eric Byrnes and Omar Quintanilla. Kennedy has had the misfortune to spend his entire career in Tampa and Denver - this would be a great opportunity for him, except that Oakland's rotation already looks pretty solid.

Finally, Brad Radke found a letter in his locker, on what looked like LA Dodgers stationery. It was a request that Radke be available to pitch to Hee-Seop Choi in the Home Run Derby. It was signed "Hee-Seop Choi." (Choi hit three homers off Radke back in June.)

Apparently, the letter was the work of Torii Hunter. Good one, Torii.

Today's schedule:

AL
New York (Mussina 9-5, 3.97) at Boston (Arroyo 7-5, 4.02) 7:05
Chicago (Contreras 4-5, 4.26) at Cleveland (Millwood 3-7, 3.58) 7:05
Kansas City (Greinke 1-11, 6.20) at Detroit (Bonderman 11-5, 3.99) 7:05
Tampa Bay (Fossum 3-7, 4.42) at Toronto (Lilly 7-8, 5.42) 7:07
Los Angeles (Washburn 5-4, 3.23) at Minnesota (Lohse 7-7, 4.42) 8:10
Texas (Rogers 10-4, 2.54) at Oakland (Harden 5-4, 2.53) 10:05
Baltimore (Cabrera 7-7, 4.90) at Seattle (Pineiro 3-4, 5.44) 10:05

NL
Washington (Hernandez 12-3, 3.48) at Milwaukee (Davis 9-7, 4.11) 2:05
Pittsburgh (Redman 4-8, 3.76) at Chicago (Prior 5-3, 3.41) 2:20
Florida (Burnett 5-5, 3.33) at Philadelphia (Myers 6-5, 3.20) 7:05
Atlanta (Ramirez 8-5, 4.65) at New York (Glavine 6-7, 4.94) 7:10
Arizona (Vazquez 7-8, 4.54) at San Diego (Stauffer 3-4, 4.55) 10:05
San Francisco (Schmidt 6-5, 5.01) at Los Angeles (Penny 5-5, 3.43) 10:10

Posted by Magpie on Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 11:59 AM EDT.

This Day In Baseball: 14 July 2005 | 14 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#122621) #

It's curious that Burnett, Redman and Schmidt, who have all been mentioned in trade rumours, start tonight. Performances, good and bad, do tend to get magnified in importance.

Donkit R.K. - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#122630) #

Am I the only guy who thinks that Colorado just absolutley robbed the A's?
Last time I looked Byrnes was an average to slightly above average outfielder with the potential to string together some serious hot streaks. Joe Kennedy, on-the-other-hand, sucks (prove me wrong if you can) and Jay Witasick is, well, one of the most uninspiring players in baseball (though he has pitched pretty well this year).

Nigel - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#122645) #

Donkit, I have mixed feelings about the trade in general, but I will take you up on your comment about Kennedy. Kennedy is 26 and left handed. Coming into this season, he was a completely league average pitcher (career ERA+ of 100). In his four seasons he was completely league average in his first two seasons, terrible in his third and one of the best pitchers in baseball last year (ERA+ of 137). He only makes $2.2 million and is arbitration eligible for one more year. Compare his career numbers to a couple of the offseason 3year/$24million signings and he stacks up pretty well - Milton (career ERA+ of 99 - 30 years old); Clement (career ERA+ of 99 - 31 years old). Before this season started he was a steal at the price of Byrnes. Now this season's been a disaster - ERA 7.01. I don't know what to make of this, but I'd start by saying that his batting average against is a crazy .344 versus his career .277. His walks are up slightly and his K rate is down slightly. I'd say that he's pitched better than his ERA would suggest (although still not like last year). There are some other examples of pitchers that got to Coors and struggled after a time - Hampton being the obvious example. I admit that its a risky move, but its got high upside. Let me put it this way, if you asked me if I would be in favour of trading Reed Johnson to Colarodo for Kennedy and Witasick, I'd say yes.

Magpie - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#122652) #

I like Kennedy, too. A lot of it is quite likely because I've seen him pitch very well quite often - he's started 6 games in Toronto, he's 4-0, 3.63, and I think I was probably there for each of those games.

I also think he's spent his entire career on terrible teams with terrible defenses. He's never been in a situation that gave him a decent chance to succeed.

Gitz - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#122657) #

In the short-term, this deal is not great for the A's. Long-term, sure, Kennedy may work out. But whatever is going on with him this year (his numbers are bad on the road, too) is not going to be solved in the next three months.

Thomas - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#122665) #

Kennedy has pitched better than his numbers suggest and has a ridiculous BABIP. He's not going to be anything too great this year, but there is speculation that he'll become a lefty reliever in the pen and will be given an opportunity to overtake Rincon as the primary lefty. He may make it to the rotation in 2006, but I don't think he will before that.

Long-term Quintanilla may hurt the A's. BP rated him as the 37th-best prospect in baseball, and although I never bought that he still has a good chance to turn into a servicable middle infielder for a few years. Sure, the A's are set on the left with Crosby and Chavez, but I think Quintanilla could have given them a few good years at 2B or as a super-sub before he got expensive.

Gitz - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#122674) #

I don't mean to beat this point, but that expression "has pitched better than his numbers suggest" has merit with someone like Jake Westbrook. With Kennedy, who has been truly awful this year, is it really saying much that he's been "better than his numbers would suggest" when, even assuming it's true, he's still, at the end of the day, a disaster as opposed to a complete disaster? Isn't this like saying "It's better to have 10 cavities as opposed to 12?" I mean, there's no denying the fundamental truth of the statement, but that kind of equivocation is essentially meaningless.

And it's not easy to make the transition from a starting pitcher to a LOOGY; I'm not sure Kennedy is going to adjust so smoothly. He's not going to be a factor in the 2005 Wild Card race -- and if he is, it's because the A's will have used him too much and he'll have gotten raked in high-leverage situations, exactly where he doesn't belong.

Beane made this trade with next year in mind, or with the idea that he'll trade Zito anyway, despite what he's said to the contrary.

Thomas - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#122679) #

Well, Kennedy's FIP is 5.22, so I would call the dinstinction somewhat meaningful, considering that his ERA is over a run higher than what one'd expect. Also, the raw numbers aren't as terrible as they look, because he pitches in Coors. A 5.22 ERA isn't anything great, but in Coors it's not far from average. I don't think making that observation is as meaningless as you suggest.

Beane acquired Witasick with this year in mind, but I don't deny that Beane acquired Kennedy with next year in mind. I agree completely. However, I think Kennedy will get innings out of the pen this year (I don't believe he can be sent down to Sacramento to work on straightening out his problems) and will be part of the rotation next year, as you suggest. And I don't see Beane trading Zito anytime soon. A year today, I think Zito will still be an Athletic.

Nigel - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#122699) #

Gitz - in some instances you would be right, but I think Thomas' analysis shows that Kennedy hasn't been near the total disaster that one automatically thinks of when you see 7.01 ERA. Having said that, I agree that he probably won't get totally straightened out this year. That's why I have mixed feelings on the deal from the A's perspective (but would do Johnson for Kennedy/Witasick in a heartbeat). Although the A's and Jays have similar records, I think the injury to Halladay pushes the Jays' trading philosophy to valuing tomorrow over today, whereas I think the A's still have a realistic shot at playoff contention.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#122700) #

Joe Kennedy is a puzzle. He's played on terrible teams, but the defences have varied in quality. The 2003 Devil Rays' defence with Baldelli and Crawford was actually pretty good, yet Kennedy was the worst starter on the team, behind luminaries such as Victor Zambrano, Jeremi Gonzalez and Jorge Sosa.

Red Ruffing was absolutely vile on a bad Boston Braves team, but became a much better and consistent pitcher once he arrived in New York. Admittedly, Oakland in 2005 is not New York in 1930, but could the same thing happen to Kennedy?

My answer: sure. The team and context have made it likely that he would be stuck with many Ls and an ugly ERA. This cannot be good for a pitcher's confidence. We've seen enough of Kennedy to know that he is capable of throwing well. In Oakland, if he throws well, he will be rewarded with Ws and a pretty ERA, and his confidence will increase. It's a virtuous cycle.

Magpie - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#122706) #

A bit of breaking news. Now that he's DFA'd, the Marlins have 10 days to trade or waive Leiter. Hardly a surprise... wait, didn't someone here say Leiter would pitch better than Carl Pavano this year? Oh yeah, that was me.

Leiter's probably going to slide straight into the broadcast booth, although he might decide he wants to finish the season somewhere. He might actually be able to help someone as a LOOGY, but once he throws more than 15 pitches he completely loses contact with the strike zone.

Magpie - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#122713) #

More breaking news. Yankees place Wang on DL. Which never sounds good.

Magpie - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#122718) #

More breaking news. The Yanks have DFA's Eric Crozier, who was hitting a lusty .174/.235/.298 for Double-A Trenton. Ouch.

Jim - Thursday, July 14 2005 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#122721) #

Maybe the Yankees agreed to take Leiter's contract. I can't see them DFAing him without a deal in place, but what the hell do I know?

This Day In Baseball: 14 July 2005 | 14 comments | Create New Account

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